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Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC - Politics (5) - Nairaland

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Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by NapoleonHill: 3:23pm On Dec 23, 2022
Mayor101010:
You guys keep repeating this rubbish about Obi not having national appeal or structure. I can assure you that if INEC can stick to their words of giving us a free and fair election devoid of voters suppression and intimidation; Peter Obi will be the next president of the federal republic of Nigeria.
Thanks for the assurance, bro.

1 Like

Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by Pauldollars(m): 4:21pm On Dec 23, 2022
drlateef:




We are not daft and we are wise to vote Tinubu. Only daft people will vote a liar and scammer called Obi.
Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by Bigshots001(m): 4:32pm On Dec 23, 2022
In a free and fair election in Nigeria today,Peter Obi will comfortably emerge as the overall winner,but don't take APC for guaranteed with it's power of incumbency,Tinubu's extreme desperation, APC's dirty politics, and Tinubu/Shettima moneybag, this people can go to any length just to make Obi doesn't win..Obi should have people doing more tactical work and politicking for him, while he campaigns around the country, it's very clear he stands a good chance to win,but much tactical work need to be done now.
Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by stuffs2002: 4:41pm On Dec 23, 2022
FreedomfromtheT:
Igbos are the ones voting in Anambra. They cannot leave Peter Obi who other ethnic groups are supporting when it is even the turn of the Igbos to produce the next president and vote for a Muslim/Muslim ticket or a northern Muslim Fulani to take over from a fellow northern Fulani Muslim. Most Anambrarians are living above poverty line and well exposed people. They are not fools. They are very well sophisticated. They cannot easily be bought. Governor Soludo may succeed in influencing about 20,000 of those directly benefiting from him politically out of about 3 million voters to vote for Atiku Abubakar. Obi is getting not less than 90% votes in Anambra state. Atiku may get 8% while Tinubu will likely get 2%. Thank you.


I cannot help but laugh at this post of yours grin
You are very funny. You should be a comedian grin

I just hope it is not mkporu mirri talking sha

1) I am not a Southerner so don't think all your CRAAP and BULSHIT will work here.
2) Calling Obi a regional politician is giving him too much slack as he is not even likely to win in his home state. Same state he governed for 8 years.
3) Obi lost his footing politically the moment he tried to whip up and ride on ethnic and religious sentiments. Obi would be very very lucky to win a few states.
4) It is not true that many Anambra people are not living below the poverty lines and the statistics show otherwise. That was the origin of the quarell between Obi and El-Rufai when El-Rufai pointed out (with facts) that Anambra is a poor state but instead of Obi to counter El-Rufai with facts he became emotional and started cursing El-Rufai upandan. Soludo has since buttressed El-Rufai position with more facts. In fact Soludo showed that Obi improverished Anambra to such a poverty level from 20% to 68%. Anambra is poor state.
5) IGBOS have always berated the north for quota system but same IIGBOS are here asking to be president based on quota system. isn't that hypocrisy.
6) IIGBOS are probably the most naïve and unsophisticated people to have ever appeared on Nigerian political scene with the way they have been acting politically. Politics is a game of numbers and elections are won on the bases of forming alliances and building bridges but IIGBOS would rather insult and curse other Nigerians into voting for them.
Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by Okarakwu: 4:55pm On Dec 23, 2022
Keep consoling yourself ...what will be will be
Abdul05:
If it is that forget obituaries. ...


Zombidients' keypad warriors are always purse and alert on phone 24/7

to counter any move from opposition. grin grin


Even if kanu contested with buhari on air today.

Omo! Forget kanu will win... cheesy grin
Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by FreedomfromtheT: 5:08pm On Dec 23, 2022
stuffs2002:



I cannot help but laugh at this post of yours grin
You are very funny. You should be a comedian grin

I just hope it is not mkporu mirri talking sha

1) I am not a Southerner so don't think all your CRAAP and BULSHIT will work here.
2) Calling Obi a regional politician is giving him too much slack as he is not even likely to win in his home state. Same state he governed for 8 years.
3) Obi lost his footing politically the moment he tried to whip up and ride on ethnic and religious sentiments. Obi would be very very lucky to win a few states.
4) It is not true that many Anambra people are not living below the poverty lines and the statistics show otherwise. That was the origin of the quarell between Obi and El-Rufai when El-Rufai pointed out (with facts) that Anambra is a poor state but instead of Obi to counter El-Rufai with facts he became emotional and started cursing El-Rufai upandan. Soludo has since buttressed El-Rufai position with more facts. In fact Soludo showed that Obi improverished Anambra to such a poverty level from 20% to 68%. Anambra is poor state.
5) IGBOS have always berated the north for quota system but same IIGBOS are here asking to be president based on quota system. isn't that hypocrisy.
6) IIGBOS are probably the most naïve and unsophisticated people to have ever appeared on Nigerian political scene with the way they have been acting politically. Politics is a game of numbers and elections are won on the bases of forming alliances and building bridges but IIGBOS would rather insult and curse other Nigerians into voting for them.
I don't care if you are a Muslim southerner supporting a fellow southern Muslim who is vying for Nigeria's presidency under a Muslim/Muslim ticket in a country of roughy same number of Christians and Muslims. I don't also care if you are southern Christian who is ready to betray or sell your rights for a pot of porridge to northern Fulani Muslim to take over from a northern Fulani Muslim after 8 frightening years.
Let me inform you that your stale attempt to amplify the tribe of Peter Obi so as to incite other tribes against voting for him is not working. A lot of non Igbos are voting Peter Obi and there is nothing your ethnic propaganda can do about it. You can check Facebook and Twitter and all opinion polls from different parts of Nigeria to confirm that a lot of non Igbos are voting His Excellency Mr Peter Obi.
If non Igbos such as former president Olusegun Obasanjo, Afenifere, Midflebelt Forum and Niger Delta's PANDEF believe it is the turn of the Igbos and it is not tribalism, why should it be seen as tribalism for Igbos to support and vote for one of their own who is equally capable, credible, competent, mentally stable and relatively young as Nigeria's next president by God's grace come May, 29 2023?
So Tinubu is free to shout that it is his turn as a Yoruba candidate and Atiku a northerner can ask northerners not to vote for a Yoruba or Igbo person as president. Peter Obi inntge other hand never said anything tribalistic in his campaigns, yet people like you keep on looking for faults from his supporters to incite other tribes against him?
My friend, get ready to call Mr. Peter Obi your president and commander-in- chief.
God bless Nigeria.
Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by onegig(m): 5:45pm On Dec 23, 2022
azpekuliar:
All I know is ANAP has called every presidential election correctly since 2011. They have even delved into polling state elections recently and still called Osun and Ekiti elections right.
That said how come the South-West has the highest percentage of respondents (38%) who did not want to reveal the candidate they intend to vote for? I find that very very interesting.

I could call all the elections they predicted with my eyes closed.

2011- very easy to call. Everyone wanted Jonathan to complete Yar'Adua's ticket. It was a no brainer. Nigerians lapped up the underdog stories. I had no shoes. Let's have a "P.hd" candidate for the first time.


2015- Even Jonathan knew he would lose. By 2013 to 2013 it was already evident he couldn't win. Go back and see where he was trying to propose a single six year term so he could extend his four years to 6 and stayed till 2017. He 100% knew a coalition would unsit him. The forming of APC showed the dynamics wasn't in his favour. Buhari had always pulled 12million votes. The G5 governors from nPDP pulling out and supporting him. The widespread power cuts, extreme corruption, boko haram issues in the north added to the pressure. It was quite evident Buhari would win. The main Question in 2015 was about whether Jonathan would hand over not if he would win.


2019- Commonsense. Incumbency. Buhari wasn't doing okay but he still had his block votes. There was more voter apathy because there was no credible alternative to push through and break the jinx. PDP wasn't really an opposition party. They were in shambles.


So what's the big deal about their polls?

Ekiti was easy. Osun could have been the only potential tricky one but even that it was known that the difference would only be marginal. Have an aregbe support the incumbent and 23k votes would easily have been overturned and their poll would have been wrong.

They couldn't have been more wrong with the 2023 elections. Context is much more important in Polls and 2023 isn't your classical elections. It would all boil down to who can rally their bases the more to vote and I honestly do not see how LP would win. It is beyond impossible and illogical. Also understand that illiteracy is very rife in Nigeria and you have the Presidential and National Assembly elections running at the same time. So it all depends on how each party's senatorial and house rep memebrs are strong in each constituent that would really play a major role in this election in most regions bar the south west.

I doubt a senatorial candidate would be going ahead stating vote me for Senatorial and vote another for President. That's taking a lot of risks and LP does not even have enough National Assembly candidates to even swing such. Also their Presidential candidate does not have the same cult following to upend things in favour of National Assembly candidates like the Buhari effect did for a lot of candidates in 2015.

So i call BS on their polls. February isn't far off. So it is to sit back and watch
Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by stuffs2002: 6:21pm On Dec 23, 2022
FreedomfromtheT:
I don't care if you are a Muslim southerner supporting a fellow southern Muslim who is vying for Nigeria's presidency under a Muslim/Muslim ticket in a country of roughy same number of Christians and Muslims. I don't also care if you are southern Christian who is ready to betray or sell your rights for a pot of porridge to northern Fulani Muslim to take over from a northern Fulani Muslim after 8 frightening years.
Let me inform you that your stale attempt to amplify the tribe of Peter Obi so as to incite other tribes against voting for him is not working. A lot of non Igbos are voting Peter Obi and there is nothing your ethnic propaganda can do about it. You can check Facebook and Twitter and all opinion polls from different parts of Nigeria to confirm that a lot of non Igbos are voting His Excellency Mr Peter Obi.
If non Igbos such as former president Olusegun Obasanjo, Afenifere, Midflebelt Forum and Niger Delta's PANDEF believe it is the turn of the Igbos and it is not tribalism, why should it be seen as tribalism for Igbos to support and vote for one of their own who is equally capable, credible, competent, mentally stable and relatively young as Nigeria's next president by God's grace come May, 29 2023?
So Tinubu is free to shout that it is his turn as a Yoruba candidate and Atiku a northerner can ask northerners not to vote for a Yoruba or Igbo person as president. Peter Obi inntge other hand never said anything tribalistic in his campaigns, yet people like you keep on looking for faults from his supporters to incite other tribes against him?
My friend, get ready to call Mr. Peter Obi your president and commander-in- chief.
God bless Nigeria.

I was actually hoping to be wrong.

It turned out it's the mkporu mirri and nzogbu nzogbu talking.

They are all the same.
Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by dochenaj: 6:23pm On Dec 23, 2022
While the poll doesn't automatically mean that Obi will win.

It does show something interesting

The SW and NC has the highest percentage of undecided and refused voters (58%). And that puts these 2 zones as the strongest swing zones come next year.

It is worrisome for the APC that a zone (SW) that should be a stronghold for them is showing signs of being a swing zone, hence the need to lament over the plenty biases of the study as to destroy it's credibility.

Anyway I have always known that whoever wins the NC is most likely going to be the next president.
Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by FreedomfromtheT: 9:20pm On Dec 23, 2022
stuffs2002:


I was actually hoping to be wrong.

It turned out it's the mkporu mirri and nzogbu nzogbu talking.

They are all the same.
You said nothing other than parrot same stale tribal innuendos. Please get used to the fact that Peter Obi is your next president. The world is watching and they are aware that Peter Obi has won all polls so far. If your candidate cum party tries to rig the election that Obi is poised to win or try to intimidate or harass his supporters, they will be dealt with like Charles Taylor of Liberia or Laurent Gbagbo of Ivory Coast. They are warned.
Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by azpekuliar: 9:24pm On Dec 23, 2022
onegig:


I could call all the elections they predicted with my eyes closed.

2011- very easy to call. Everyone wanted Jonathan to complete Yar'Adua's ticket. It was a no brainer. Nigerians lapped up the underdog stories. I had no shoes. Let's have a "P.hd" candidate for the first time.


2015- Even Jonathan knew he would lose. By 2013 to 2013 it was already evident he couldn't win. Go back and see where he was trying to propose a single six year term so he could extend his four years to 6 and stayed till 2017. He 100% knew a coalition would unsit him. The forming of APC showed the dynamics wasn't in his favour. Buhari had always pulled 12million votes. The G5 governors from nPDP pulling out and supporting him. The widespread power cuts, extreme corruption, boko haram issues in the north added to the pressure. It was quite evident Buhari would win. The main Question in 2015 was about whether Jonathan would hand over not if he would win.


2019- Commonsense. Incumbency. Buhari wasn't doing okay but he still had his block votes. There was more voter apathy because there was no credible alternative to push through and break the jinx. PDP wasn't really an opposition party. They were in shambles.


So what's the big deal about their polls?

Ekiti was easy. Osun could have been the only potential tricky one but even that it was known that the difference would only be marginal. Have an aregbe support the incumbent and 23k votes would easily have been overturned and their poll would have been wrong.

They couldn't have been more wrong with the 2023 elections. Context is much more important in Polls and 2023 isn't your classical elections. It would all boil down to who can rally their bases the more to vote and I honestly do not see how LP would win. It is beyond impossible and illogical. Also understand that illiteracy is very rife in Nigeria and you have the Presidential and National Assembly elections running at the same time. So it all depends on how each party's senatorial and house rep memebrs are strong in each constituent that would really play a major role in this election in most regions bar the south west.

I doubt a senatorial candidate would be going ahead stating vote me for Senatorial and vote another for President. That's taking a lot of risks and LP does not even have enough National Assembly candidates to even swing such. Also their Presidential candidate does not have the same cult following to upend things in favour of National Assembly candidates like the Buhari effect did for a lot of candidates in 2015.

So i call BS on their polls. February isn't far off. So it is to sit back and watch

Hindsight they say is 2020. Anybody can claim they called an electoral outcome correctly AFTER the event. You are no exception. However since you are gifted with the gab of predicting election outcomes eyes closed, then please do so NOW and not in March next year.

Ekiti was not only called correctly it was called right down to the order in which each front runner will finish at the polls.

If Buhari garnered 12m votes with the CPC, a party set up for the sole purpose of his contesting the 2011 elections with no senatorial candidates, governors etc then who says Obi cannot garner 12m+ votes to win the presidential elections in a 4-horse race?
I would wager that Obi has the same cult following that Buhari had in 2011 with even better regional spread than a Buhari in 2011.
Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by Penguin2: 8:22am On Dec 24, 2022
Doyou2019:


Even old BATstards would admit that Peterside has been a man of integrity through his days as a journalist till when he founded IBTC.
Keyamo 's slander on the man speaks to how frustrated the Tinubu camp is at this time.

Lol!

If the poll was really skewed, they won’t be running kiti kiti kata kata.

They know it’s a reflection of reality and that’s why they are perturbed.

1 Like

Re: Fresh ANAP/NOI Poll Skewed To Encourage Peter Obi’s Supporters – APC by onegig(m): 1:21pm On Dec 24, 2022
azpekuliar:


Hindsight they say is 2020. Anybody can claim they called an electoral outcome correctly AFTER the event. You are no exception. However since you are gifted with the gab of predicting election outcomes eyes closed, then please do so NOW and not in March next year.

Ekiti was not only called correctly it was called right down to the order in which each front runner will finish at the polls.

If Buhari garnered 12m votes with the CPC, a party set up for the sole purpose of his contesting the 2011 elections with no senatorial candidates, governors etc then who says Obi cannot garner 12m+ votes to win the presidential elections in a 4-horse race?
I would wager that Obi has the same cult following that Buhari had in 2011 with even better regional spread than a Buhari in 2011.

I don't do wild reasoning like you lots do. His entire stronghold which is the SE can't even boast of 12million votes totally . That's even if there's a 100% participation . As of 2019. The Northwest alone which was Buhari's strong hold had a numerical strength of 19Million votes and probably 16million in 2011. That's not even counting the North East and North Central. Even with his cult following. He could only raise probably 30% of votes in those regions.

Let's even assume Obi has same cult following which in reality he doesn't . He garners 90% of the votes in his stonghold which is almost impossible to have such turnout. Like 50% of those PVCs are likely unclaimed. So he gets probably 5million from there another 4 million from other places and this is me being very generous. That's still leaves him far off from the numbers needed to win.

I am not a pollster but to state Obi winning is like going on a wild gooose chase. The numbers don't align. You need a coalition to win votes. You can use social media to leverage and push your agenda but without those coalition delivering bulk votes it is almost impossible to win . As for the 3 other candidates. Kwankwaso would have a good showing in Kano and Jigawa. That's if he doesn't pull out. But for Atiku and Tinubu They definitely would go neck to neck in most places but whoever can ginger their bases more would win this.

Atiku had about 17 states in 2019 and over 11million votes. 30% or so of those votes came from the South East and South South due to Obis and PDPs influence. That drops him about 3 to 4 million votes down there. The election would be won on tight margins but it's too early to call who would win based on the numbers available but looking at the current numbers and outlook it is between Tinubu and Atiku and slight 10% chance of Obi(Miracles do happen).

States like Osun and Ekiti would have voter apathy. Election fatigue is a big deal. Definitely a likely 30% drop in turn out as against the governorship elections. Reaity is with all the noise you hear online every single election period you would think the participation would be in the 80%. 2019 elections had 37% voter turn out. 2015 with all the craze had 43% turn out which was a good showing for Democracy. Probably same numbers this time around. That should tell you how reflective social media hysteria is to real world scenarios. As crazily debated, keenly contested and hyped as the Osun elections was, voter turn out was 42%. That's to show you how hard it is to push people to vote. Adeleke had henchmen on ground pulling their constituents, had social media hype, had a celebrity push and had ran for elections that he almost won 4 years ago. To win by 23k votes is such is underwhelming. So discount all these noise .

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