senatordave1:


That is what I reasoned.apart from edo which has igbos in edo South, most ss that are backing obi have igbotic roots like in delta,rivers,...the people that vote in akwa cross are still stuck with broom and umbrella.that lp logo is widely unknown

Urchin everything is not tribe for Christ sake, these ppl with all their education all they think and work is tribe

SpatialKing:
Everybody wants to have a runoff with Obi
From structureless to lead contender

If this election goes to runoff with Obi still in the race, forget it Obi has won. Most of those in PDAPC camp today are there because they don't believe a small "structureless" party like Labour Party can pull off a victory against either APC or PDP. So they are there as a safe bet in winning. That is why you often hear those in Atiku's camp saying "safe choice". They don't want to risk anything or sweat to get their candidate elected, the character of the candidate they are voting for is of little importance to them, these are the ones you call "cowardly electorates". Compared to Obidients who are defiant and resilient.

So if this election by any means goes to runoff, those doubting Thomas's in PDAPC will realize it is actually POssible to defeat these two parties, hence they will switch camp to join Obidients to vote massively for Obi.

If Tinubu could have run+off with Obi....

Tinubu has already won...but if it is Atiku....

Ha....struggle continue....i can not say....

Massiveglory:
Alert!! Fake heading!
Tinubu urchn mod has changed the topic of this post.

The SBM permutations had nothing to do with tinubu winning.
They tilted towards an PODATTI win.


Here are their permutations
AA- win 11 states, 25% in 27 states
Emilokan- win 9 states, 25% in 20 states.
PODATTI- win 17 states, 25% in 25 states.


Tinubu was ranked to come 3rd.
It's shameful how the heading was quickly changed.


Talking about the Elections,
I can't really speak for other south west states as I don't know much about them. But you see Lagos, expect something huge.

Apart for 1999, with the then AD, bola tinubu has never won any election in Lagos free and fair.

With the coming of BVAS and the curtail of miscreants activities, expect some shock results in various places especially in the south west and north.

Ref: naptu2, JAMO84

I am just broadcasting this view, like naptu2 does...

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

Delta is sure for Obi. Forget that Okowa is there. He's picked the safer fight against Omo-Agege. While Omo-Agege is trying to align with Obidients to boost his chances against PDP.

No one is picking a fight with LP here. Rather they want to cooperate.

I think you should watch your area bro. Tinubu got lots of home problems.

updatechange:
Anybody wey is welcome… na the remaining 3 months wey Buhari go still spend Dey worry me like dis.

🤣

Bitchiamjay:


E go shock them on Saturday.

Their eye go clear.

If that's the case then Obi is finished because the North will rather support bayarabe than to support an Nyamuri that is never sincere.

caracas:

Lol
We shall see , it is now you ppl will understand when we tell you that the igbos outside of the south east are more than the ones in the south east….

No problem. Since it's Igbos v Others, you'll hear from us.

Keep quite OSU kill you there, Sowore is ur next president.

Massiveglory:
Alert!! Fake heading!
Tinubu urchn mod has changed the topic of this post.

The SBM permutations had nothing to do with tinubu winning.
They tilted towards an PODATTI win.


Here are their permutations
AA- win 11 states, 25% in 27 states
Emilokan- win 9 states, 25% in 20 states.
PODATTI- win 17 states, 25% in 25 states.

Tinubu was ranked to come 3rd.
It's shameful how the heading was quickly changed.


Talking about the Elections,
I can't really speak for other south west states as I don't know much about them. But you see Lagos, expect something huge.

Apart for 1999, with the then AD, bola tinubu has never won any election in Lagos free and fair.

With the coming of BVAS and the curtail of miscreants activities, expect some shock results in various places especially in the south west and north.

zenith114:
If you  Plan to migrate to UK �� in 2023 (via study),send a  DM  I can help you apply to as many as possible schools in the UK for just a token, putting into considerations tuition deposit, tuition balance payment plan, accommodation and jobs.

Story

You leave in the past. The scenario aren't the same again. APC has strong presence in the North and the rotational presidency thing will also work for their candidate

iwaeda:


Another lie, God and check what happened in 1979 and 1983, reason history must be taught constantly. Atiku is our President

Winning123:
You leave in the past. The scenario aren't the same again. APC has strong presence in the North and the rotational presidency thing will also work for their candidate

Rotation ko, notation ni. Why Tinubu did not pick Christian VP? Atiku is our next President. We don't want blblablu.

forgiveness:


Delta is Batified. It's not predominant igbo state.

Though Urhobo has the largest population Ika, Itshekiri, Ukwuani, Isoko, Ijaws, Igbo and Olukumi also have sizable population.

Looking at this, Obi can never get 85% in Delta because Urhobo, Ijaws, Olukumi, Itshekiri and some Ikas are behind Tinubu.

They are not happy because Okowa abandoned Warri and their area to focus on his own area.

It’s clear you don’t even understand what you’re saying, for your info presidential is different from gubernatorial elections.The division you’re talking about is in the gubernatorial, All of the different ethnic groups in delta are solidly behind obi

senatordave1:


Very possible if ss se records high turnout

Just de play

MrEverest:


Are you man enough to bet on this? Or you're just another urchin spewing garbage as usual?

So, according to you, Obi won't get 25% in Delta? You really must have sawdust mixed with palm oil for brain.

FYI, Obi is winning Delta with wide margins. It's Atiku that will struggle to get 25% here. Tinubu is not even in contention here!

Obidients you have to insult to make your point

CapitalCee:


Just de play

Dont rule out anything.but the chances of ss sw turning out is very low.this sbm analysis is the best

senatordave1:


Dont rule out anything.but the chances of ss sw turning out is very low.this sbm analysis is the best

Guy Obi will come distant 3rd. I know exactly what I am saying. He will get between 1m to 1.2m votes in the SE. About 800k in the SS, 300k in the SW and same in NC finish. In NE/NW Obi will not see more than 200k votes. You guys just overblow things due to noise on social media by those who live Abroad or dont have PVC. Didnt you see the turn out during Obi's rally?

CapitalCee:


Guy Obi will come distant 3rd. I know exactly what I am saying. He will get between 1m to 1.2m votes in the SE. About 800k in the SS, 300k in the SW and same in NC finish. In NE/NW Obi will not see more than 200k votes. You guys just overblow things due to noise on social media by those who live Abroad or dont have PVC. Didnt you see the turn out during Obi's rally?

I'll say he will get 2.5 mil in se,1.5 mil in ss,500k in sw,1 mil in nc.he will get up tp 500k in ne nw.I see him beating atiku

senatordave1:


I'll say he will get 2.5 mil in se,1.5 mil in ss,500k in sw,1 mil in nc.he will get up tp 500k in ne nw.I see him beating atiku

Thats 6m, so how will he get the highest votes with 6m? And he will get about half of that max.

There are things you are yet to understand. This election will reveal a lot of things and everybody will be shocked, forget all these noise on social media. PDP and APC have some group of mature die hard party members, that will give them significant votes in strategic states.

1. SE will not produce more than 2m total votes cast.
In Ebonyi state for example, Dave Umahi will deliver and Upward of 35% of the votes for APC, Ebonyi state people dont think like most of the SE state, and most places there are rural, PDP is dead in Ebonyi but they will scrap traditional votes leaving LP with about 40% max which will be about 100-150k votes. Abia state same thing with OUK clearly delivering 25% through Abia north(i am 100% sure of this), PDP is very strong in Abia, Abia wont have more than 400k total votes, same with Enugu, so in those 2 states Obi will be having like 150-200k votes. In Anambra and Imo the total will not exceed 500k each. So generally his total votes in SE will revolves round 1million.

In the SS, I just laff when i see random people come on social media, shouting down everybody saying PDP/APC will not get 5%, 10% etc in some states in SS, i just laff at their ignorance.

About 70% of the votes in SS, are locked down in the hands of politicians, interest groups & and associations and these people dont come online to argue with people about their choice. The ones you see making noise everywhere are the remainants found mostly in urban areas and majority of them will not vote.

In Rivers state, Virtually all strong political parties and major interest groups are on the same page of supporting Tinubu, including the sentiments in the creeks and many riverine communities. There is a residual PDP group supporting Atiku and the street credibility in Urban areas majority backing Obi, followed by PDP. Do the maths yourself. Obi will not score more than 200k in Rivers, Same with delta state.
In Edo, Akwaibom and Crossrivers Obi will not score more than 100k votes in each, he wont get up to 50k in Bayelsa.

Apart from Lagos, where he will score like 300-400k votes originally coming from former PDP stronghold, He will not get up to 100k combined in the other SW states.

In the NE/NE, you must be having a laugh to think Obi will get half a million votes, in states like Kebbi, Zamfara, Borno, Katsina,Jigawa, Gombe, Yobe, Sokoto, Bauchi and Kano, Obi will not get a total of 50k votes combined. In Kaduna, he might get like 100k from Southern Kaduna finish, 50k from Taraba then like 20-30k in Adamawa.

1m in Northcentral 😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆 just de play bro, de play. In Niger and Kwara, LP cant get more than 10k votes each. They will do well in Benue and Plateau but not as much as people are thinking. These 2 states will almost be evenly shared anong the 3 major parties. Kogi Is strictly between PDP and APC, LP wont see 50k there. FCT total votes cast will be about 400k so do the maths.

For me, in the South LP will get between 2m to 2.2m, in the North his total votes wont exceed 1m.

Bookmark this analysis and refer in 1 week time

CapitalCee:


Thats 6m, so how will he get the highest votes with 6m? And he will get about half of that max.

There are things you are yet to understand. This election will reveal a lot of things and everybody will be shocked, forget all these noise on social media. PDP and APC have some group of mature die hard party members, that will give them significant votes in strategic states.

1. SE will not produce more than 2m total votes cast.
In Ebonyi state for example, Dave Umahi will deliver and Upward of 35% of the votes for APC, Ebonyi state people dont think like most of the SE state, and most places there are rural, PDP is dead in Ebonyi but they will scrap traditional votes leaving LP with about 40% max which will be about 100-150k votes. Abia state same thing with OUK clearly delivering 25% through Abia north(i am 100% sure of this), PDP is very strong in Abia, Abia wont have more than 400k total votes, same with Enugu, so in those 2 states Obi will be having like 150-200k votes. In Anambra and Imo the total will not exceed 500k each. So generally his total votes in SE will revolves round 1million.

In the SS, I just laff when i see random people come on social media, shouting down everybody saying PDP/APC will not get 5%, 10% etc in some states in SS, i just laff at their ignorance.

About 70% of the votes in SS, are locked down in the hands of politicians, interest groups & and associations and these people dont come online to argue with people about their choice. The ones you see making noise everywhere are the remainants found mostly in urban areas and majority of them will not vote.

In Rivers state, Virtually all strong political parties and major interest groups are on the same page of supporting Tinubu, including the sentiments in the creeks and many riverine communities. There is a residual PDP group supporting Atiku and the street credibility in Urban areas majority backing Obi, followed by PDP. Do the maths yourself. Obi will not score more than 200k in Rivers, Same with delta state.
In Edo, Akwaibom and Crossrivers Obi will not score more than 100k votes in each, he wont get up to 50k in Bayelsa.

Apart from Lagos, where he will score like 300-400k votes originally coming from former PDP stronghold, He will not get up to 100k combined in the other SW states.

In the NE/NE, you must be having a laugh to think Obi will get half a million votes, in states like Kebbi, Zamfara, Borno, Katsina,Jigawa, Gombe, Yobe, Sokoto, Bauchi and Kano, Obi will not get a total of 50k votes combined. In Kaduna, he might get like 100k from Southern Kaduna finish, 50k from Taraba then like 20-30k in Adamawa.

1m in Northcentral 😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆 just de play bro, de play. In Niger and Kwara, LP cant get more than 10k votes each. They will do well in Benue and Plateau but not as much as people are thinking. These 2 states will almost be evenly shared anong the 3 major parties. Kogi Is strictly between PDP and APC, LP wont see 50k there. FCT total votes cast will be about 400k so do the maths.

For me, in the South LP will get between 2m to 2.2m, in the North his total votes wont exceed 1m.

Bookmark this analysis and refer in 1 week time

Obi is not my problem.I really fear atiku in the core north

senatordave1:


Obi is not my problem.I really fear atiku in the core north

Ofcourse, I dont waste my Time with Obi, Moreover he wont get 25% in All SW states maybe apart from Lagos, and all northern states apart from Benue and Plateau. So he has no path to Victory.

Now going to Atiku. He has a very very big problem in his hands. First Peter Obi have striped him of about 50% of his votes in SS and SE, the remaining votes which the PDP structure would have delivered for him, Wike still no wan give am that one. PDP is greatly divided in Imo, CrossRivers, Edo, Delta, Rivers and Abia,. In Anambra, Obi will sweep every single votes there and PDP is non-existent in Ebonyi, In Enugu the PDP structure there have decided not to vote him. So he is in real trouble.
Now going to SW, This naira redesign saga have seriously dealt Atiku a huge blow in the SW, the concensus is that Buhari is suffering the people so that Asiwaju will lose and pave way for Atiku, SWesterners are really agitated now they feel there is a northern aganda against Asiwaju. Asiwaju would have won SW comfortably normally but now, the margin will be very high now, look at the ibadan rally. The few Igbo+SS votes he used to get in Lagos, is now taken by Obi.
ATIKU'S problem in the South were he use to get good numbers before, have 2 formidable candidates this time and Buhari a fulani man just finished an 8 year tenure, the sentiments will be for a power shift, any protest vote against the APC will not go to Atiku.


Coming to the core north. Atiku never Envisaged that Obi and Wike factor will come up this strong, in the South, he was banking on the votes from SS and SE. So his northern base is weak, PDP is normally not a strong party in the core north so no matter who they present, they will struggle. Now unlike what many PDP supporters and members were hoping for that northern governors will betray Tinubu, that didnt happen, All the governors are infact very determined to deliver Tinubu because most of them want to still remain relevant after this election, and they want to do that through the APC, which is a strong core northern party. Again Buhari's body language might not look too impressive in support of Tinubu, but he has endorsed and raise his hands in public, most of his followers will vote for Tinubu, I have made my research recently and discovered that at least 60% of those that voted for Buhari in 2015 and 2019 in the north are still loyal to APC and will vote Tinubu. The core north will be very tight but I tip APC to edge it overall.
Now the naira redesign issues have agitated the APC base in the north, and Atiku's stands and posture on the issue have angered the APC governors and structure in the north who are looking to turn the narrative that its done to make them fail, they are the ones speaking for the masses, saying what the masses want to hear, although there is this Buhari die hards that wont like any criticism of him, those one wont necessarily vote Atiku, majority will follow whoever Buhari endorses. With this Those APC governors who Atiku was depending on to betray Tinubu are now incensed with him and are determined desperately to deliver tinibu to prove a point that they are nkt betrayals.

We have 13 NW/NE states, First Atiku will lose Zamfara, Borno and Yobe with huge margin, come distant 3rd in Kano. The few Christian minorities that would have given him their mergre votes will be divided with Obi. In Every other states Any state he wins he wont win with a good margin. APC for example is very very strong in Jigawa, Katsina, Kaduna and Kebbi. So states done finish na.

Another thing people are not remembering is that in NC Tinubu has a clear edge against Atiku, with Kogi, Niger and Kwara firmly in the bag for Tinubu, the other states Obi will scatter his strongholds for him.

So generally given Asiwaju strength in SW, Obi and Wike factor in SE and SS, Atiku needs Buhari-like huge numbers in the core north to stand any chance, and its clear he cant get.

Proudlyomonna:


Okay but for common sense sakes it's good enough to say according to reputable data gathering Obi is the top man for the job.
If Anap is predicting common LP to win polls that even APC won previously,this should make ya all see that something dynamic has occurred in our political space,I mean watin Lp get to dey win this polls where the big APC and PDP dey?
Apc's suffering, pain and unimaginable hardship pro max don change everything.
We wait for the election to end on God Nigeria will win against APC.
If you enter streets you go realize se this matter don turn to suffering and hustling Nigerians vs APC disaster and unimaginable hardship pro max. Bcus APC don turn abomination for the streets of Nija,some women almost beat one man on uniform wey been deh try defend tinubu for this money I pity those spreading Tribal hate, people like elsudani, Levels2, unclekoboko,morh247,yerimo na their sef them deh do.
The anger and hunger to end dis APC disaster and unimaginable hardship pro max is bigger than their tribal hatefilled antics.
APC MUST GO FOR THEY ARE THE GREATEST DISASTER TO HIT THIS COUNTRY.
Obidiati is the way forward.

As you go to bed this night, may you never wake up to see the break of the day, Amen. May calamity before you, Amen. You are cursed today and always in mighty name of Jesus Christ Amen. RIP will be your new name.

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