I am an Igbo man residing and doing business in Lagos. The nature of my business requires that I gather huge customer data via leads collection on social media using Google doc links. I have been doing this for more than 5years and I can tell you that I understand the population demography of Lagos state with respect to tribes.

From the leads I have gathered so far, it will be foolhardy to say that the population of Yorubas and igbos in Lagos is equal. My data, so far with more than 100,000 samples suggests that Lagos is ocuppied by 55% Yorubas, 25% igbos, others are 20%.

Note: This figures does not represent the percentage of hausa/Fulanis in Lagos because most of them usually don't buy products online and are not very active on internet.


Using this data to understand the voting demography of Lagos, you will realize Peter Obi can win Lagos.

55%of Yorubas in lagos are not going to all vote Tinubu, about 25% here are Christians and Tinubu is more popular within the Yoruba Muslim voters.
About 12% of the 25% Yoruba christians in 55% will most likely vote for Peter Obi.
Of the other tribes, majority of them are from the southsouth, Benue and Kogi. About 10% of them will vote for Obi. Expect almost all Igbo person in Lagos to vote for Peter Obi. For the benefit of doubt, let's give him 20% of the 25% igbos.

This means that Peter Obi may already have 42% of lagos to himself, while Tinubu has about 30% from Yoruba Muslims and 13% from Christians (43%).

The remaining 20% population will be hugely splitted. All candidates including Atiku will get from there.

From the 55% Yorubas, don't be surprise that the likes of kola Abiola and Sowore will get votes in Lagos. Those Yorubas who know that Tinubu is not fit and won't vote Igbos think that Sowore and Kola Abiola are better alternatives.


Obi can win Lagos, don't be surprise if he does.

Your analysis may work if our government offers free fair and credible election. However I don't see that panning out. I'm a realist I'm also an optimist. But I don't see obi winning Lagos. I'm fully OBI-dient and I know he will will other locations convincingly but not lagos.
However nigeria must be OBI-dient

Datti-zit

naijapikin2:
Your analysis may work if our government offers free fair and credible election. However I don't see that panning out. I'm a realist I'm also an optimist. But I don't see obi winning Lagos. I'm fully OBI-dient and I know he will will other locations convincingly but not lagos.
However nigeria must be OBI-dient

Datti-zit

See, I work with data.
I am also realistic.

I'm not saying that he will definitely win, but it's a 50/50 scenario according to what data suggests. Even if Tinubu wins, the margin will be extremely slim.

This election is going to be the freest and fairest in the history of Nigeria

I edited the figures

FatherOfJesus:
See, I work with data.
I am also realistic.

I'm not saying that he will definitely win, but it's a 50/50 scenario according to what data suggests. Even if Tinubu wins, the margin will be extremely slim.

This election is going to be the freest and fairest in thr history of Nigeria

my brother you forgot that a lot of ballot snatching will occur. And many of obis supporters will be disenfranchised. All those thugs will just hijack the election process.

Also... Many of the people who's data you have access to are not voting for one reason or the other.

Mark my words tinubu will win lagos by a large margin. But I trust that peter obi will win the election and become nigeria's next president.

I'm just being objective

naijapikin2:
my brother you forgot that a lot of ballot snatching will occur. And many of obis supporters will be disenfranchised. All those thugs will just hijack the election process.

Also... Many of the people who's data you have access to are not voting for one reason or the other.

Mark my words tinubu will win lagos by a large margin. But I trust that peter obi will win the election and become nigeria's next president.

I'm just being objective

Dude, hijacking ballot boxes doesn't play a significant role in rigging elections.
The major part of rigging election coms from padding of ballot papers in many polling units, which BVAS has taken care of.

Tinubu will win Lagos by a large margin if this election is held in 2019. Not now.

Your objectivity is more of pessimism because you are not factoring many things that has changed. You are looking at it from the lens of 2019 when there was no cash crunch to tackle vote buying and and BVAS to tackle overvoting

FatherOfJesus:
Dude, hijacking ballot boxes doesn't play a significant role in rigging elections.
The major part of rigging election coms from padding of ballot papers in many polling units, which BVAS has taken care of.

Tinubu will not win Lagos by a large margin if this election is held in 2019. Not now.

Your objectivity is more of pessimism because you are not factoring many things that has changed. You are looking at it from the lens of 2019 where there was no cash crunch and BVAS

let's hope it pans out according to your postulations. For the benefit of the nation. Cheers.

Your thinking level might be to shallow

Tinubu have the governor , house of representative , house of assembly , chairmen, counselors , lawma, lasma and lot of agency and obi has none
Then yours analysis might be coming from your thought I

Many Yoruba xtians know that the Muslim-Muslim ticket is nothing but political strategy

It happened during the time of Abiola in 1993

Yoruba will surely go with there tribe

skedman:
Your thinking level might be to shallow

Tinubu have the governor , house of representative , house of assembly , chairmen, counselors , lawma, lasma and lot of agency and obi has none
Then yours analysis might coming from your thought

So what are these people going to do?
Force people to vote for Tinubu against their wish?

You must think that BVAS and cash crunch is a joke to you.

Sanwolu who's the governor sef is fighting to keep his own position

Helpfromabove1:
Many Yoruba xtians know that the Muslim-Muslim ticket is nothing but political strategy

It happened during the time of Abiola in 1993

Yoruba will surely go with there tribe

Well, looking at it from my own personal view, I think many Yoruba christians are weary of Tinubu.

The family that received me when I first came to Lagos are Yorubas, members of redeem, I meet their son during NYSC in port Harcourt, I usually take him to my family in Enugu (we took care of him a lot), so they welcomed me well. They are all Obidient.

I have 3 neighbors who are all Yorubas, one is a Muslim who works for Lagos state government, one is a christian working for a private firm and the last one is a christian that has his private business. We discuss politics a lot. The two Christian Yoruba are supporting Peter Obi, The Muslim guy is supporting Tinubu.

The man that helps me fill my gas, a yoruba Muslim, he supports Tinubu.

My boss at work, a yoruba christian, supports Obi.



From my own point of view, it's more likely for a yoruba christian to support Obi than a yoruba Muslim. I engage people a lot in politics, I don't shy away from it. While I have seen many Yoruba christians supporting Tinubu, I have seen more Yoruba christians supporting Obi. I have only met one Yoruba Muslims that support Obi (the guy is not a very serious Muslim though).

Free and Fair, Tinubu will struggle to win election but massive Riging will occur in Lagos with or without Bvas.
Lagos may be Tinubu strongest ground but you have to understand Lagos also have literate voters also than other places in the country.

anungangampu:
Free and Fair, Tinubu will struggle to win election but massive Riging will occur in Lagos with or without Bvas.
Lagos may be Tinubu strongest ground but you have to understand Lagos also have literate voters also than other places in the country.

There's massive rigging in this election. There will be rigging, but it won't be massive.

I know what I am saying

All these 11th hour political analysts sef...

Saturday election will shut many people's mouths

Rubbish!!!

Go back and check Lagos voting pattern in the past whenever a Yoruba man is on the ballot.

Please be aware that the election in Lagos is not as you have it

Tinubu will win with a very wide margin

I have surveyed the Lagos area and discovered that those rooting for Obi are mainly Ibos and some Youths.

The believe that Yoruba Christians will vote for Obi is a ruse. The Yorubas understand better that religion does not matter in their politics.

If the Presidential election had come up in December 2022, Peter Obi would have done better and challenged Bola Tinubu, but the events of the past few weeks (the Naira Swap, and the ethnocentric view that the North are persecuting him) have brought the people back to Tinubu. This is evident in the boldness of URCHINS to attack and speak on Nairaland in recent days, as well as the view around the city about Tinubu and no one else.

Taking a cue also that the coming of significant developments from the Federal to Lagos State has happened majorly in this government when their son's party is in power.

They also believe that the Security of Yorubas would be more assured if they have their Son (Tinubu) in power, rather than Peter Obi who may focus on security in his own domain.

The major determinant of this shift to Tinubu is the fact that Tinubu will help them regain the losses they may likely suffer if the current Naira swap challenges continue. Thus the cliche, "vote Tinubu and continue to spend your old Naira till December 2023)

His boldness against the powers that be also gave him out as someone who would not be afraid to take some bold steps to solve Nigeria's problems.

At the National level, the continuous push and advertisement that it is the turn of the South to produce the President will work to favour Tinubu.

My final verdict - Tinubu will win Lagos, and win the National election

Helpfromabove1:
Many Yoruba xtians know that the Muslim-Muslim ticket is nothing but political strategy

It happened during the time of Abiola in 1993

Yoruba will surely go with there tribe

To add to this, my girlfriend is a yoruba.
I visited their family in Epe last December. They are member of redeem, they are al Obidients.

I know what I am saying. But one thing I have noticed is tha, most Yoruba Obidients in sohthwest usually want to shy away from political arguments, they always come out of their shell when they see an Obidient like them.
My Yoruba friend that brought me to Lagos and one of my Yoruba neighbors, they will always say that they don't want to argue, they will silently go there and vote for Obi and come back.

skedman:
Your thinking level might be to shallow

Tinubu have the governor , house of representative , house of assembly , chairmen, counselors , lawma, lasma and lot of agency and obi has none
Then yours analysis might be coming from your thought I

Agreed. Then this governor, chairmen, house of reps, lawma, lasma and counsellors will vote for everybody residing in lagos abi?? Do they have multiple thumbs to vote thousands of times or what?? Explain how these chairmen will vote for millions of people??

ojoadeola:

Please be aware that the election in Lagos is not as you have it

Tinubu will win with a very wide margin

I have surveyed the Lagos area and discovered that those rooting for Obi are mainly Ibos and some Youths.

The believe that Yoruba Christians will vote for Obi is a ruse. The Yorubas understand better that religion does not matter in their politics.

lol OK 😂

naijapikin2:
Your analysis may work if our government offers free fair and credible election. However I don't see that panning out. I'm a realist I'm also an optimist. But I don't see obi winning Lagos. I'm fully OBI-dient and I know he will will other locations convincingly but not lagos.
However nigeria must be OBI-dient

Datti-zit

In this it's possible ONLY in free and fair environment and APC Lagos know.

But Tinubu fights dirty and am concerned about that

Okwyjesus:


In this it's possible ONLY in free and fair environment and APC Lagos know.

But Tinubu fights dirty and am concerned about that

As long as Tinubu has lost federal might, BVAS exist and cash crunch is a thing, Tinubu cannot do much. He will try, but he has been limited a lot

FatherOfJesus:
So what are these people going to do?
Force people to vote for Tinubu against their wish?

You must think that BVAS and cash crunch is a joke to you.

Sanwolu who's the governor sef is fighting to keep his own position

Sanwo Olu is the only Governor that is sure of re-election... Talk another thing

Dotherightthing:
Rubbish!!!

Go back and check Lagos voting pattern in the past whenever a Yoruba man is on the ballot.

do u remember that there is a yoruba man in the ballot in 1999? What was the result of Lagos state?

Okwyjesus:


In this it's possible ONLY in free and fair environment and APC Lagos know.

But Tinubu fights dirty and am concerned about that

precisely my point. He will fight tooth and nail to capture lagos.

I know for sure Abuja will be won by peter obi

FatherOfJesus:
I am an Igbo man residing and doing business in Lagos. The nature of my business requires that I gather huge customer data via leads collection on social media using Google doc links. I have been doing this for more than 5years and I can tell you that I understand the population demography of Lagos state with respect to tribes.

From the leads I have gathered so far, it will be foolhardy to say that the population of Yorubas and igbos in Lagos is equal. My data, so far with more than 100,000 samples suggests that Lagos is ocuppied by 55% Yorubas, 25% igbos, others are 20%.

Note: This figures does not represent the percentage of hausa/Fulanis in Lagos because most of them usually don't buy products online and are not very active on internet.


Using this data to understand the voting demography of Lagos, you will realize Peter Obi can win Lagos.

55%of Yorubas in lagos are not going to all vote Tinubu, about 25% here are Christians and Tinubu is more popular within the Yoruba Muslim voters.
About 12% of the 25% Yoruba christians in 55% will most likely vote for Peter Obi.
Of the other tribes, majority of them are from the southsouth, Benue and Kogi. About 10% of them will vote for Obi. Expect almost all Igbo person in Lagos to vote for Peter Obi. For the benefit of doubt, let's give him 20% of the 25% igbos.

This means that Peter Obi may already have 42% of lagos to himself, while Tinubu has about 30% from Yoruba Muslims and 13% from Christians (43%).

The remaining 20% population will be hugely splitted. All candidates including Atiku will get from there.

From the 55% Yorubas, don't be surprise that the likes of kola Abiola and Sowore will get votes in Lagos. Those Yorubas who know that Tinubu is not fit and won't vote Igbos think that Sowore and Kola Abiola are better alternatives.


Obi can win Lagos, don't be surprise if he does.

Your data is just for your customers and those online….what about the people In villages like Badagry owode, epe ikorodu what about the aworis in Lagos… people thinks because you are doing business in Lagos you know Lagos…..the only Yorubas voting obi are the learned ones that understand that obi is the best…. Bro I’m from Lagos and I will tell you that it’s possible for obi to win the presidency but please forget about Lagos….Note:the Yoruba Christians will betray obi

If Obi come second in Lagos I owe you 20K

FatherOfJesus:
See, I work with data.
I am also realistic.

I'm not saying that he will definitely win, but it's a 50/50 scenario according to what data suggests. Even if Tinubu wins, the margin will be extremely slim.

This election is going to be the freest and fairest in the history of Nigeria

Exclusive101:
If Obi come second in Lagos I owe you 20K

lol, I like when you guys say this because Saturday will be a shocker

Do you even know the names of those contesting against Sanwolu ?

FatherOfJesus:
So what are these people going to do?
Force people to vote for Tinubu against their wish?

You must think that BVAS and cash crunch is a joke to you.

Sanwolu who's the governor sef is fighting to keep his own position

Teddy0147:


Your data is just for your customers and those online….what about the people In villages like Badagry owode, epe ikorodu what about the aworis in Lagos… people thinks because you are doing business in Lagos you know Lagos…..the only Yorubas voting obi are the learned ones that understand that obi is the best…. Bro I’m from Lagos and I will tell you that it’s possible for obi to win the presidency but please forget about Lagos….Note:the Yoruba Christians will betray obi

ok 😂

babyfaceafrica:


Sanwo Olu is the only Governor that is sure of re-election... Talk another thing

Mark this.

If Peter Obi wins on Saturday, Sanwolu will be voted out as well.