jumper524:
This forum is a Nigerian forum not a succesionist forum.
If things are going wrong, we can only keep trying to correct the wrong and hope it betters.
If that pains you, please avoid the forum, you can go to Facebook or twitter and continue cursing the govt in your own timeline or public group.

I don't get those your daft response walahi. You people just because of crumbs they are paying you. You are now trying to gaslight people that are criticising this obvious Freudian slip that this government is embarking on

Fujiyama:


^^^
There was a radio/TV advertisement by Airtel some years back with a line (or perhaps it was even the ad title) that said a man was expected to have made his first million Naira (or was it five million?) by age 30 or something like that. It was a big deal then because inflation wasn't the monster it has become today.

A very controversial thread hit front page because of that ad - so many young men felt very uncomfortable with the pressure being placed on their shoulders. Thirty wasn't far off and the economy wasn't smiling. Very few would have expected things to get a lot, lot worse. But they have.

I didn't have grey hair then. I won't say if I do now.

Racoon:
Absolute truth! Nothing more! Nothing less. However, this new development even if it is being considered is a red flag that President Tinubu was never prepared for any meaningful governance as he campaigned. He is just another unfortunate phenomenon after Buhari to ever graced our national life.

Unfortunately, his wayo wayo image makers did this country a great disfavour by shielding him from thorough public scrutiny in not appearing for media interactions or debates. Now, these are just the economic consequences not even talking of the other sides of our national that are still nose diving.

Sudden removal of the fraudulent fuels subsidy( that the APC have been operating illegally for the past 8 years despite lying to Nigerians that it is a scam/fraud) and free floating the naira without any plans to cushion the outcome of the these major policies just paints a scary picture about his future policies. After he promised to continued Buhari’s disastrous policies.

you think it's Tinubu or any president that will bring ideas that will stabilised the economy. Something that economic expert have been failing to a accomplished so far.

So if Obi or Atiku won, u expect them to know anything about how to stabilised the economy abi.

There are people who are specialists for that. They bring ideas for the president, all the president just need to do is to give them go ahead on Any plans if he is convince enough.

You want one man to be controling, head and know about every sector ni. Make una dey use una head small na

Solution to our economy problems is production and nothing else. No monetary or fiscal policy will solve our problem if we don't reduce our importation. Currency denomination can not strengthen the naira and is the worst economy policy I have ever seen.
We need to have industrial parks in each region and ensure that we start producing products that we capacity to produce locally

bigiyaro:
Nawao, even tinubu sef just assemble clueless technocrats. What is the difference between maize and corn? Unless the blood sucking coruption, gross and blatant wastages couple with the overbloated wages of politicians is totally and completely eradicated, window dressing the naira will not save it. Even almajiries knows that, [b]ramping up local production, minimal imports or most essential products import, eradicating oil thefts and 100% accounting for crude sold, [/b]will transform the country in less than 4 months.

Easy for you to say .

How exactly do you want government to revamp local production..goes government own all the industries? And can they just give a matching order for all industry to revamp?

Most of what Nigerians import are essential in various degrees.. except there are substitute created by local industries..imports will continue..and as much as Nigerians will continue to despise local produce like rice for example and love the foreign ones.. people will continue to import it..

Crude oil theft is highly sophisticated..however the most effective approach is the one buhari put out by awarding contract to miscreants..that has resulted in more arrest in less than a year compared to the arrest made by the navy in 4 years ..

The oil companies are the crooks behind cause account of oil sales ..they are falsified by their Ogas and will be difficult to fight

Fantastictelem:
Solution to our economy problems is production and nothing else. No monetary or fiscal policy will solve our problem if we don't reduce our importation. Currency denomination can not strengthen the naira and is the worst economy policy I have ever seen.
We need to have industrial parks in each region and ensure that we start producing products that we capacity to produce locally

Simple..

State government and local government together have more responsibility than the federal ..it is their responsibility to ensure provisions of land for investors..cuz the federal government doesn't own land...

But Nigerians are naive of truly how government works and should be .so everything is blaimed on tinubu alone..when the state government relax and do nothing..


Another thing is based on our odd mentality.. Nigerians love leaders that do alot of white elephant projects to gain support and love..a lot of governors capitalize on this and build usel projects and Nigerians hail them..

Just like umahi who wasted 36bn on a non functional airport, serakie Dickson wasted 37bn on an airport that doesn't work..
And Many more..toh

grandstar:
This isn't the best time to re-redenominate the currency.

There's a proverb that says "the broom that swept the first wife away is waiting to sweep the new wife away."

It simply means that if the underlying problem is not treated, expect a repeat of the present poor performance.

In Argentina, the country redenominated its currency in 1992 and made it $1- 1 peso. Today, it is $1-350 pesos

On 1st January, 2005 the Turkish Lira was redenominated and make $1-1 Turkish Lira. Today it is $1-27 Turkish Lira.

Ghana in 2007 redenominated the Cedi at $1-1 Cedi. The value now is $1-11 Cedi.

At a time like this when inflationary pressures are high, this is worst time to redenominate.

Rather, the government should tackle the underlying problems fuelling inflation and top of the list which is the currency substitution policy which was mentioned in the to-do-list of CBN policy of 2007 termed the ‘Strategic Agenda for the Naira.’

it would work wonders especially if implemented. It is also imperative that fiscal deficits are kept at the minimum. There's nothing that causes greater damage to a currency than inflation fuelling budget deficits. That is the primary reason the Cedi keeps performing poorly.

"2007 policy

According to information monitored on the CBN website, the ‘Strategic Agenda for the Naira’ announced by the Central Bank of Nigeria on August 14, 2007 generated a healthy national debate.

The CBN had announced a 4-point agenda designed to make the Naira the “Reference Currency in Africa”, as part of the Financial System Strategy 2020 (FSS2020), which included; Currency Re-Denomination, Adoption of Inflation-Targeting Framework for the conduct of monetary policy, sharing part of the Federation Account funds in US Dollars to Deepen the Forex Market and for Liquidity Management, and Current Account liberalization/convertibility and accession to Article VIII of the IMF.

The CBN had said that listed the advantages to include strengthen public confidence in the Naira, make for easier conversion to other major currencies, reverse tendency for currency substitution, eliminate higher denomination notes with lower purchasing power, reduce the cost of production, distribution and processing of currency, promote the usage of coins and thus a more efficient pricing and payments system, promote the availability of cleaner notes, [b]deepen the Forex marke[/b]t, ensure more effective liquidity management and monetary policy, convertibility of the Naira and hence greater confidence in the national economy and lead to greater in-flow of foreign investment, and position the Naira to become the ‘Reference currency’ in Africa."

The highlighted, especially the "reverse tendency for currency substitution" would boost the value of the Naira and stabilize it. Any time there's substitution of the dollar component of monthly allocation paid to the 3 tiers of government, it leads to excess money in circulation. If the money was instead paid in forex, it would strengthen the currency instead

You make excellent points.

I do not purport to know the exact thought process of the proponents of redenomination in the administration, but surely it is not being billed as a silver bullet.

Argentina, Turkey, and Ghana are economic basket cases. Our malaise is not as bad as theirs.

From my vantage point, the purpose of a redenomination is temporary stability. Tinubu needs a cooling off period to execute his fiscal liberal agenda without having to put out a lot of fires. The Ghanaian Cedi lost half its value relative to the USD (moved from 1:1 to 1:2) in 7 years. That's an economic miracle knowing their history. If they had not redenominated, the crash would have been more severe, hard as that may be to grasp.

The problem for Ghana, and the two other Musketeers, are the economic structural imbalances that the ruling class persistently fail to fix.

Germany, China, and South Korea redenominated in the past. Brazil, Mozambique, and Israel too.

Of course, if we redenominate and sit on our thumbs, it'll haunt us in a decade. But if we are serious about reforms, a redenomination offers soft landing as long as we keep to a strict timeline.

An analogy is gravity assist in orbital mechanics. Wrong calculations will kill you, but if you get it right, it cuts your travel time.
Or anesthesia. You'd still have to go under the knife and it can be fatal if not administered by a pro.

I'm in the camp that posits it is a risk worth taking.

Under Obasanjo, GEJ, Tinubu, and an hypothetical Obi or Atiku or el Rufai Presidency; I'm in favor. Under Buhari and Yar'Adua, I'll be a staunch opponent. The former group can theoretically realize the advantages of the policy. The latter group are demonstrably incapable.

It is fair to call it a cosmetic exercise. It is. It'd also be expensive and I have my reservations about returning to coinage. But we just had a teaser with the naira redesign + aggressive currency mop up policy that stabilized the FX rate from inception until the float.

A redenomination paired with a sharp decline in the money supply will be the redesign policy on steroids.

Currency substitutions risks amplifying the dollarization of the economy. It'll also decentralize round tripping. Federating units are a blackhole for funds. The other fanciful critiques on the thread fail to note that we are stuck in a catch-22.

Tinubu attempted to cut the big-ticket subsidies. But the consequent pain impelled a reversal. The factors fueling our economic difficulties still remain while we sink deeper into debt trying to hold it all together.

When the $3B AFRIEXIM loan is exhausted, as it will in weeks, what will we do? Get another loan to subsidize consumption when we already spend a whooping 96% of government revenues on debt servicing?

People think a Sri Lanka can't happen in Nigeria. But we're well on our way. Pakistan is getting there faster. They have just $9B in reserves. Import $60B when they only export $35B. And they have similar population of 230m.

But sure, let's borrow dollars to "defend the naira" so you can buy cheap gasoline and import toothpick and wigs for pennies on the dollar. We're playing a stupid game of musical chairs and hoping the music never stops. No prizes if you guess how this ends.

-Lord

Vision101:
I just pity president tinubu. The mess in the Nigerian economy started towards the end of Jonathan's regime. This was principally because of corruption and the weakness of the president to control those he appointed.

This led to the alarm bell rang by okonjo-iweala. They did not arrest the situation. Unfortunately buhari did nothing but compounded the situation.

Tinubu inherited a messed up economy. He's not talking because he's protecting buhari and his party. He's battling against odds.

The good thing is that he's sound and he has sound people around him. When a patient is in a critical condition the doctors will try several drugs and modes of treatment and watch the effect on the patient. Finally they will get the most responsive mode. In the process the patient will feel several pains.

The doctor will be called names by the patient and his relations. I'm feeling the pains too.

What will anybody honestly criticise a government that inherited the Nigerian mess, less than three months, ministers not yet sworn in and broad policies not yet in full implementation?

FYI I'm an Ibo, professional, religious leader detribalised and apolitical.

First of it's IGBO not Ibo
Second you are mad
Eat your corn in peace and stop trying to shift blame
Wetin concern GEJ with APC
8 and a half years of APC yet na PDP we still dey hear?
Smh

LordAdam16:


You make excellent points.

I do not purport to know the exact thought process of the proponents of redenomination in the administration, but surely it is not being billed as a silver bullet.

Argentina, Turkey, and Ghana are economic basket cases. Our malaise is not as bad as theirs.

From my vantage point, the purpose of a redenomination is temporary stability. Tinubu needs a cooling off period to execute his fiscal liberal agenda without having to put out a lot of fires. The Ghanaian Cedi lost half its value relative to the USD (moved from 1:1 to 1:2) in 7 years. That's an economic miracle knowing their history. If they had not redenominated, the crash would have been more severe, hard as that may be to grasp.

The problem for Ghana, and the two other Musketeers, are the economic structural imbalances that the ruling class persistently fail to fix.

Germany, China, and South Korea redenominated in the past. Brazil, Mozambique, and Israel too.

Of course, if we redenominate and sit on our thumbs, it'll haunt us in a decade. But if we are serious about reforms, a redenomination offers soft landing as long as we keep to a strict timeline.

An analogy is gravity assist in orbital mechanics. Wrong calculations will kill you, but if you get it right, it cuts your travel time.
Or anesthesia. You'd still have to go under the knife and it can be fatal if not administered by a pro.

I'm in the camp that posits it is a risk worth taking.

Under Obasanjo, GEJ, Tinubu, and an hypothetical Obi or Atiku or el Rufai Presidency; I'm in favor. Under Buhari and Yar'Adua, I'll be a staunch opponent. The former group can theoretically realize the advantages of the policy. The latter group are demonstrably incapable.

It is fair to call it a cosmetic exercise. It is. It'd also be expensive and I have my reservations about returning to coinage. But we just had a teaser with the naira redesign + aggressive currency mop up policy that stabilized the FX rate from inception until the float.

A redenomination paired with a sharp decline in the money supply will be the redesign policy on steroids.

Currency substitutions risks amplifying the dollarization of the economy. It'll also decentralize round tripping. Federating units are a blackhole for funds. The other fanciful critiques on the thread fail to note that we are stuck in a catch-22.

Tinubu attempted to cut the big-ticket subsidies. But the consequent pain impelled a reversal. The factors fueling our economic difficulties still remain while we sink deeper into debt trying to hold it all together.

When the $3B AFRIEXIM loan is exhausted, as it will in weeks, what will we do? Get another loan to subsidize consumption when we already spend a whooping 96% of government revenues on debt servicing?

People think a Sri Lanka can't happen in Nigeria. But we're well on our way. Pakistan is getting there faster. They have just $9B in reserves. Import $60B when they only export $35B. And they have similar population of 230m.

But sure, let's borrow dollars to "defend the naira" so you can buy cheap gasoline and import toothpick and wigs for pennies on the dollar. We're playing a stupid game of musical chairs and hoping the music never stops. No prizes if you guess how this ends.

-Lord

That nonsense you just posted is amazing
Those three countries make more from tourism than many countries worldwide
Don't defend nonsense and try to sound smart
Cheers

Racoon:
The is the effects of overhyping a so called first class heroin drug baron criminal graduate of accountancy( who does not want his academic records displayed for public scrutiny) that was supposed to be a book keeper, but was garbbed in borrowed robes then criminally foist on a nation.

Now he is running a trial and error government in a country where the economic value of the dollar is abysmally useless, more that 90% of the populace are living below a dollar daily, multi-dimentional poverty everywhere, double-digits galloping inflation with concommittant forex scarcity.

No plans to encourage local production and enhanced export to balance out the trade deficits. Foreign mulit-conglomerate companies are folding up due to constricting economic realities. Welcome to balabloo-blu-bulava economics. Nigerians brace for impact.

Shut up joor even obi would have failed more woefully than this..u people don't want to accept reality that's is it..

Your kind of ignorance and lack of intelligence is unusual, even by Nigerian standards.

Anyone with basic common sense and who is not living in denial can see what is going on.

I stay in Ibadan and yesterday, when I went to a pharmacy to buy some anti malaria pills, someone that I know stopped me to beg for 3k because the asthma medication he used to buy for 5,000 is now 23k. I thought he was trying to scam me, so I asked the cashier and she confirmed that he was telling the truth. When I asked my brother who owns his own pharmacy in Lagos, he told me that the price in Lagos is 40k!

Your country is on the road to ruin but most of you are just too stupid to see the tsunami of economic collapse that is coming your way.

jumper524:
This forum is a Nigerian forum not a succesionist forum.
If things are going wrong, we can only keep trying to correct the wrong and hope it betters.
If that pains you, please avoid the forum, you can go to Facebook or twitter and continue cursing the govt in your own timeline or public group.

LZAA:

That nonsense you just posted is amazing
Those three countries make more from tourism than many countries worldwide
Don't defend nonsense and try to sound smart
Cheers

No one will put you on trial if you avoid wading into issues that you clearly do not have the mental bandwidth for.

I listed 6 countries.

The first three that "make more from tourism than many countries worldwide" grappled with rampant inflation and an erratic currency market early on. To a degree much worse than we're dealing with currently.

They redenominated, implemented wide-reaching economic reforms, and continue to reap the fruits of the timely intervention today.

Of course, since you're unlettered, you think their superb economies were conjured out of thin air. They weren't.

-Lord

Some losers are terribly wounded during the last election that they were unable to move on, so terrible for them.
Check the names of economists that come up the suggestions...
As a nation we have to move out of the economy mess we are into, the earlier we get it right the best for us.

Who else foresaw this coming, signify by liking my post. Very soon they will use naira to bailout naira.

I can stop laughing, this comedy or sitcom is really interesting.

obyno82:


Guy are just fantastically dense to see that under this man's watch your emi lo kan crooner the country is sliding downward at an aggressive pace.

It would have been worse with any other one among him, Atiku and Obi. To this day, he remains the best candidate. All we need is patience and patriotic zeal to see the country work for all.

Vision101:

@me
The corruption around subsidy is huge and has been on for years. Any soft handling will not work. The refineries will not work so long as there is subsidy on imported petroleum products.

The refineries in Egypt are working and there is subsidy in Egypt.

tachia406:


It would have been worse with any other one among him, Atiku and Obi. To this day, he remains the best candidate. All we need is patience and patriotic zeal to see the country work for all.

Selfdeceit is delusion. Even Buhari is better than Tinubu. Just 2 months plus and the economy is choking.

lexy2014:


Why all these insults? You sound so so terribly hurt is there a problem?

No insults, just a question.. because I am curious.

LordAdam16:


No one will put you on trial if you avoid wading into issues that you clearly do not have the mental bandwidth for.

I listed 6 countries.

The first three that "make more from tourism than many countries worldwide" grappled with rampant inflation and an erratic currency market early on. To a degree much worse than we're dealing with currently.

They redenominated, implemented wide-reaching economic reforms, and continue to reap the fruits of the timely intervention today.

Of course, since you're unlettered, you think their superb economies were conjured out of thin air. They weren't.

-Lord

Again you are spewing the same garbage
Redomination will not cure this malaise
Rather it will expose it
But hey the corn you are munching must be sweet so chew on
Smh

@jmoore
The refineries in Egypt are working and there is subsidy in Egypt.


@me
I agree that this is a public forum therefore anyone can come up with any argument.

1. What is the size of consumption in Egypt?
2. What is the size of outlay in terms of subsidy
3. Is corruption so pronounced in Egypt as it is in Nigeria?
4. What killed manufacturing in Nigeria? Answer: you make more money importing than producing.
5. What killed the refineries? Answer: you make more money importing than refining - fx roundtriping, subsidy payment, etc.
6. In summary corruption killed the refineries and it will never come back so long as there's subsidy and special exchange rate.
7. Remove both and importation will no longer be attractive and the officials will want the refineries fixed.

Vision101:


1. What is the size of consumption in Egypt?
2. What is the size of outlay in terms of subsidy
3. Is corruption so pronounced in Egypt as it is in Nigeria?
4. What killed manufacturing in Nigeria? Answer: you make more money importing than producing.
5. What killed the refineries? Answer: you make more money importing than refining - fx roundtriping, subsidy payment, etc.
6. In summary corruption killed the refineries and it will never come back so long as there's subsidy and special exchange rate.
7. Remove both and importation will no longer be attractive and the officials will want the refineries fixed.

Good leaders are in Egypt while misleaders are in charge in Nigeria. Egypt generates 59,000
megawatts while Nigeria is generating 5,000 megawatts. Why should any home in Egypt owe a generator? Nigeria is run by petrol.

@ Racoon why do you address tinubu as president?

okeysoninv:
Absolutely, there is no way we can survive with out redenomination of naira. Once naira close the maximum threshold of #1000 per a dollar we can remove a zero . Making 100 naira equal to $1. As of 2013 rate.

And you think that cosmetic approach will solve the problem? Redenomination at this time will be the end of the naira, with such inflationary spikes in the economy and poor purchasing power of the currency, the move will throw the business community into a monetary crisis that will further implode the forex market.

starstaz:


Have equally written on this in the past. It's not a new invention but an idea that is reputably driven by Mr Soludo while he was the CBN chief but was shot down by the BDC sponsors.

Too little too late, it won't work at this point. The forex disparity are miles apart

jmoore:
That APC mouthpiece, Ajuri Ngelale should come and tell us that Nigeria has better exchange rate than all Africa countries.

You know how they usually say that Nigeria has the cheapest petrol in Africa. They should use same propaganda for the FX.


1 United States Dollar = 60.55 Gambian Dalasi

1 United States Dollar = 186.25 Liberian Dollar

1 United States Dollar = 101.24 Cape Verdean Escudo



While 1 Dollar is above 780 naira.

The naira still has a better purchasing power than these currencies. A bottle of coke in Liberia is over 2 USD (400 Liberian dollar) while in Nigeria it is less than a dollar at 205 naira.

This doesn't mean I support the corn man in Abuja. Redenomination of the naira at this time is a bad call.

Opurumiri:


You're a fool for calling your country Useless

Nigeria is useless

Heyy.....

Shoodboi:


It's not possible. When you redenominate, you end up with two currencies, the old one and the new one. So the old 1000 naira note will be equal to the new 100 naira note. So to get one paint of garri, you either give the seller the old 1000 naira or the new 100 naira.

so the new 100 naira becomes very scarce and the old 1000 naira notes are gradually wiped out. I understand now.

Naustine:


Ghana haven't done it as at then

Ghana had done it.

I remember Nigerians who were against it saying that Ghana economy was small, that it would surely fail in Nigeria. Despite, it still failed woefully in Ghana because Ghana too is a consuming nation..

Aside, that policy can only reduce the volume of currency in circulation, it can never add any value to a currency.

There was no inflation through out the regime of Abacha. In fact, exhange, rate, prices of goods and services were dropping everyday.
They should go and study how Abacha govt did it.

It is obvious now that both the technocrats and our politicians have eaten our common wealth so much that their brains are no longer functioning.

How can you revisit a long dead policy?

Especially, when the policy is not addressing inflation, eradication of poverty, unemployment and production of all things consumed in nigeria locally.

These people already have brain touch

alphabbey1:

You just put one of the 3 worst performing currencies in the world into one post and called them stable...

He is not funny… he is mad. Dullard trying to sound intelligent.