DexterousOne:



Interesting

Why do you think "Abokis" know this tho

Are you making specific reference to the ethnic group
Or you mean those who operate bureau de change?


And btw, it's a.boki we both wrote

Why is the system changing it to Northerners

I meant àboki BDC and the system altered it.
If they didn't know,you think they will be buying dollars high price when the CBN had threatened fire and brimstone on monday next week?

ukay2:



Loooooool


Na oga Ahinbingas de deal on imported Truk parts, so he needs to over analyse the FGN to avoid losses.

Am hoping make this FGN debt issues relate to NTB at 18%, FGN Bonds at discount prices

No be over analysis and headaches be my problem

PMB and other top government functionaries are sleeping well at home, na me go come de drink panadol for them....

Their incompetence na Im dey put Nigeria 4 tight corner

GonFreecss1:


In as much as I like the apocalypse talk. People thinking FG defaulting won’t affect other things is funny. There is no business that will escape the wrath of that default.

please tell me how this will affect export oriented businesses
It will even favour them

ukay2:


I have been in a stock (Dangflour) from N4 to N20....I refused to listen to their over analysis. I followed Alhaji Dangote until I offloaded at N20.

Same ogas here bought UBA at 2.5 when everyone was seeing danger ahead, within 11months, offloaded at N12.

Some ogas here bought 16.25% FGN BOND 2037 at discount prices of 18% and will be enjoyingthe coupons until they want to sell....even selling it today at premium price of 11% is still a good profit margin for them

Over analysis analysts said all kinds of negative things about Dang flour until they ate their words...

but danflour is a loss making entity...the tiger brands lost over 200m dollars ....cos they refuse to do over analysis ....Mrs brought taxaco for over 800m dollars....where is mr sayyu today ...indebted to amcon and mrs is a loss making entity.....what happen to our shares in phb.......i dont know how much you invest .....but if i invest 5m in bond i wouldnt need any analysis.....if i want to invest 50m in same i will even attend paid seminars on bonds

DexterousOne:



Lmao


You over analyse things too much

If war breaks out
Prolonged war

The currency becomes useless
No matter where you invested

Your real estate becomes useless too cos its liable to bombing and destruction

And businesses wont run either


So regardless of where you go

If conflict/crisis occur

Losses are sure


My only wish is that the incompetent man we have in Aso Rock does not mortgage the futures of those coming behind us with his wrong decisions

This is my point!

If what they are saying is true. They shouldn’t even be on nairaland or own anything in Nigeria. They should be in another country right now! Looool!

Many things won’t survive that default. Lol!

DexterousOne:


Sometimes listening to the "over analysts" is the right thing to do.

I remember when some were ringing bells about Skye
Many did not listen

How did it end?

Its good to listen to all the perspectives
Then make your decision accordingly

I invested heavily in skye bank then and bailouts when I saw their finances were on Red, though one guy in nsepa was marketing skye bank then....Until it ended in crises.

No serious investor invest and go to sleep.....

But for FGN investments, let it fall on all of us make we see

Loooooool

pluto09:


I am not saying people should not invest. I am an investor myself.
I am only saying that our economy is not in good shape and cannot be compared to that of USA

I didn’t compare our economy. I compared the debt, especially relative to printing money.

2 different things.

DexterousOne:



Their incompetence na Im dey put Nigeria 4 tight corner

Exactly, one day we will get competent people like ogas like United4real, Ahinbingas
Sholapey, Emmanuelwumi etc to lead us, pay out debts so that FGN will come back to profitability like China

NL1960:


What is even the issue in paying Naira denominated bonds that people want to break their heads over?. If there is no Naira, will CBN not simply print more Naira to settle people?.

I tire o. Ki ki ki ki

Nwanne, some ignored to follow the common rules here, but they can criticize the govt for non coherent all the time.

18. Don't spam the forum by advertising in the wrong places or posting the same content many times.
19. Don't use alternate accounts to access Nairaland after being banned. If you do, make sure we don't find out.
20. Complaints to or against moderators must be sent privately. Please don't disobey, disrespect, or defame them.
21. Please spell words correctly when you post, and try to use perfect grammar and punctuation.
22. Don't ask Nairaland members for contact details (email, phone, bbpin) or investments.

Theconglomerate:
Well,don't blame him.
Just a man desperate for business,else he would have been able to see through the BS.
Like who with a 150m cash will come here looking for property to buy when there are real estate firms literally begging for patronage all over lagos and some even offer credit?
Desperation throws logic outside the window 90% of the time.

ukay2:


I invested heavily in skye bank then and bailouts when I saw their finances were on Red, though one guy in nsepa was marketing skye bank then....Until it ended in crises.

No serious investor invest and go to sleep.....

But for FGN investments, let it fall on all of us make we see

Loooooool

Well said

The risk of default is existent

But it is very very minimal

If its corporate debt we were talking about
I would have been more inclined to align with that thought
Because corporate bonds are always at risk of calamity

However. Sovereign Bonds are safer

Theconglomerate:
When will it rebound?
1)Output cut=less revenue
2)low price=more less revenue.
3)Second wave of coronavirus.
Oil is dead for the year
Come June 21,CBN won't still do nothing and abokis know this,reason why dollar go up again today and they are buying at high price to lure more people to sell to them, upon say CBN say monday they will make naira stronger than dollar..
They know CBN is all bark and no bite this year

Boss. The other time shebi you were shouting Speculators will soon lose their money?

Now you are saying this?

Even Oga Ahib shouting dollar this or that has once championed that Naira this or that. I remember. He argued against me once here, when I was arguing with many others.

My conclusion is that many here base their analysis on their bias based on their emotions at that point in time. Not the actual logic on ground.

ahiboilandgas:
but danflour is a loss making entity...the tiger brands lost over 200m dollars ....cos they refuse to do over analysis ....Mrs brought taxaco for over 800m dollars....where is mr sayyu today ...indebted to amcon and mrs is a loss making entity.....what happen to our shares in phb.......i dont know how much you invest .....but if i invest 5m in bond i wouldnt need any analysis.....if i want to invest 50m in same i will even attend paid seminars on bonds

So are you saying that all those that accounted for the 460% over subscription of the SUKUK 3 bond did not do any analysis?.

Theconglomerate:
please tell me how this will affect export oriented businesses
It will even favour them

How will the money come?

Will it fly and enter their pockets?

Hahahahahaha - una funny gan.

ahiboilandgas:
but danflour is a loss making entity...the tiger brands lost over 200m dollars ....cos they refuse to do over analysis ....Mrs brought taxaco for over 800m dollars....where is mr sayyu today ...indebted to amcon and mrs is a loss making entity.....what happen to our shares in phb.......i dont know how much you invest .....but if i invest 5m in bond i wouldnt need any analysis.....if i want to invest 50m in same i will even attend paid seminars on bonds

I lost heavily in bank PHB. ..I see it as school fees payments in NSE and am better now and making more profits now after paying school fees in my early days in NSE.

Some people ran away from NSE then and never came back, but I refused to back out from NSE and am happy now.

Also have equities and Bonds in NYSE via Trove App

DexterousOne:


Well said

The risk of default is existent

But it is very very minimal

If its corporate debt we were talking about
I would have been more inclined to align with that thought
Because corporate bonds are always at risk of calamity

However. Sovereign Bonds are safer

Well said!

GonFreecss1:


Boss. The other time shebi you were shouting Speculators will soon lose their money?

Now you are saying this?

Even Oga Ahib shouting dollar this or that has once championed that Naira this or that. I remember. He argued against me once here, when I was arguing with many others.

My conclusion is that many here base their analysis on their bias based on their emotions at that point in time. Not the actual logic on ground.

What was the logic you had?
Because AFAIK,there was no logic on ground concerning international oil markets.No one know nothing then and Emefiele used that to market propaganda very well and we fell for it.
The evidence is just coming out slowly.
But he might not be done yet,I expect him to pull some last minute stunts on monday like the $100m stunt he pulled some weeks back and later succumb to devaluation pressures or another involuntary float.

NL1960:


So are you saying that all those that accounted for the 460% over subscription of the SUKUK 3 bond did not do any analysis?.

How do you mix all of this with your profession? Your DR. na Medical doctor or PhD.
You seem so well vasted in various investment instruments and take life a little easy. You cannot come and kill ursef gang.

ukay2:



I lost heavily in bank PHB. ..I see it as school fees payments in NSE and am better now and making more profits now after paying school fees in my early days in NSE.

Some people ran away from NSE then and never came back, but I refused to back out from NSE and am happy now.

Also have equities and Bonds in NYSE via Trove App

GonFreecss1:


How will the money come?

Will it fly and enter their pockets?

Hahahahahaha - una funny gan.

How will the money come how?
Explain please.

NL1960:


So are you saying that all those that accounted for the 460% over subscription of the SUKUK 3 bond did not do any analysis?.

Loooooool

NL1960:


So are you saying that all those that accounted for the 460% over subscription of the SUKUK 3 bond did not do any analysis?.

ojesymsym:
How do you mix all of this with your profession? Your DR. na Medical doctor or PhD.
You seem so well vasted in various investment instruments and take life a little easy. You cannot come and kill ursef gang.

Loooooool

We learn in the job with practice in investment world

I can't kill myself with FGN debts and management

Theconglomerate:
What was the logic you had?
Because AFAIK,there was no logic on ground concerning international oil markets.No one know nothing then and Emefiele used that to market propaganda very well and we fell for it.
The evidence is just coming out slowly.
But he might not be done yet,I expect him to pull some last minute stunts on monday like the $100m stunt he pulled some weeks back and later succumb to devaluation pressures or another involuntary float.

You are basing your assumptions on what you think.

Not what is actually factual. What was factual to me was the oil price, and non-Oil-sales. What is also factual to me is the decreased external reserve and your government borrowing more USD to lump to that. Another fact? If the government used 44 billion USD to save the naira throughout 2018 with crude oil prices ranging from 50-70 USD per barrel...

And now... that same crude oil is currently on 40, with production cuts, and an external reserve less than 40 billion USD. It was enough logic for me to know what’s up.

I don’t need rumours on what CBN or Mefi will do. The numbers are there sir.

You said no one knew anything? Oga, it was you who knew nothing, that is why you changed your stance, because if actual facts backed your former stance, you wouldn’t need to change it.

Theconglomerate:
How will the money come how?
Explain please.

Won’t the money come through banks?

Was it not still you talking about how people couldn’t withdraw certain amount of FX the other day?

And government has not even started defaulting yet.

GonFreecss1:


You are basing your assumptions on what you think.

Not what is actually factual. What was factual to me was the oil price, and non-Oil-sales. What is also factual to me is the decreased external reserve and your government borrowing more USD to lump to that. Another fact? If the government used 44 billion USD to save the naira throughout 2018 with crude oil prices ranging from 50-70 USD per barrel...

And now... that same crude oil is currently on 40, with production cuts, and an external reserve less than 40 billion USD. It was enough logic for me to know what’s up.

I don’t need rumours on what CBN or Mefi will do. The numbers are there sir.

You said no one knew anything? Oga, it was you who knew nothing, that is why you changed your stance, because if actual facts backed your former stance, you wouldn’t need to change it.

What facts are you talking about?
1)At the time,no one knew anything about production cuts as there were none.
2)Nigeria reserves has always hovered around this level even with oil at $70/bbl so what's your point about reserves?
3)No one knew how the markets were going to accept oil or how economic reopenings would be.So how would you know if oil won't jump back up upon economic reopening?
4)What If Emefiele and his gang says "fùck it" and sacrifice $10B to defend the naira again and damn the consequences,after all this government isn't known to be too logical and the reserves went as low as $23B 4 years ago and Nigeria didn't turn to Zimbabwe
So what's your point?

There were no numbers to prove anything,just a case of pure dumb luck.
Maybe you analyze better than Bloomberg that was silent on naira matters at the time for lack of data.

GonFreecss1:


You are basing your assumptions on what you think.

Not what is actually factual. What was factual to me was the oil price, and non-Oil-sales. What is also factual to me is the decreased external reserve and your government borrowing more USD to lump to that. Another fact? If the government used 44 billion USD to save the naira throughout 2018 with crude oil prices ranging from 50-70 USD per barrel...

And now... that same crude oil is currently on 40, with production cuts, and an external reserve less than 40 billion USD. It was enough logic for me to know what’s up.

I don’t need rumours on what CBN or Mefi will do. The numbers are there sir.

You said no one knew anything? Oga, it was you who knew nothing, that is why you changed your stance, because if actual facts backed your former stance, you wouldn’t need to change it.

The bolded got me lmao

It was evident
Anyone who puts two and two together will get a glimpse of wetin dey sup

GonFreecss1:


Won’t the money come through banks?

Was it not still you talking about how people couldn’t withdraw certain amount of FX the other day?

And government has not even started defaulting yet.

Not all export deals are based on third party assurances such as LC.
Some are one man,one buyer deals.
So how do you stop wire-wire from happening in this case where no Nigerian bank will smell the money except black market naira deposit suddenly maneuvered into Nigeria without going through any legal banking method?
2)Not all export deals are structured,what if the goods is going to cotonou,kinshasa or Douala where the money returns to Nigeria cash

Please in the name of God, you have made your point known, don't get dragged into a needless argument.
You will soon get soaked in before you realize.

GonFreecss1:


Won’t the money come through banks?

Was it not still you talking about how people couldn’t withdraw certain amount of FX the other day?

And government has not even started defaulting yet.

Same analysis we read here when some Ogas like United4real bought this same Sukus at about 15% and, we hoping TBill will rise back to 18% kept going south till date. We will be fine.

Theconglomerate:
What facts are you talking about?
1)At the time,no one knew anything about production cuts as there were none.
2)Nigeria reserves has always hovered around this level even with oil at $70/bbl so what's your point about reserves?
3)No one knew how the markets were going to accept oil or how economic reopenings would be.So how would you know if oil won't jump back up upon economic reopening?
4)What If Emefiele and his gang says "fùck it" and sacrifice $10B to defend the naira again and damn the consequences,after all this government isn't known to be too logical and the reserves went as low as $23B 4 years ago and Nigeria didn't turn to Zimbabwe
So what's your point?

There were no numbers to prove anything,just a case of pure dumb luck.
Maybe you analyze better than Bloomberg that was silent on naira matters at the time for lack of data.

1. If you didn’t know there would be future production cuts, then you have not been following these things long enough. Note that in that period, there wasn’t even a production cut, it was just no sales! Worse than a production cut could ever be. So what is your point?

2. Also wrong sir. Go and check the historical charts of the external reserve and see how sharp it went down. Hovered around this? Lol! Bros! I am beginning to believe what those guys meant about your points days back.

3. I am not talking about oil. I was talking about Dollar to naira rates. In which due to the fact that oil had not been sold for a long time, would affect it and due to the fact as with number 1 above - production cuts! Like I said, if you have been following these things for a while you will understand.

4. Hahahahaha. If you don’t know why the Nigerian government decided to borrow money instead of spending down to that Number, bros... then there is still a lot more you need to understand.


You say luck?

I am not the bragging type, but my buying power says otherwise.

ojesymsym:
Please in the name of God, you have made your point known, don't get dragged into a needless argument.
You will soon get soaked in before you realize.

I don’t even want to bother again.

He has small partial knowledge about some things then jumps in like an expert. It’s funny.