andrewza: Mali is a land locked country. So they could cut off all trade. Nigeria has ocean trade and it's navy is contested in the region. It would easily keep the sea lanes open. This of course is if the navy backs the coup.


If the AU was 100% behind it they could shut your trade down and blockade your ports.


But the biggest factor will be how stubborn and determined the coup leaders are and how loyal the troops are to them.

Well said!

sheyee, i am not. you can see the amount of loss that will be. Most of this institution would be destroyed in a civil war. That why I went to the international community for help. Why, because we can not put the lifes of millions of people in the hands of selfish people. Who do not care for their lifes.

more than 82% of the universities in the western niger are own by people or institution,. while over 80% of the universities in the north are own by govt or state.

The western niger looked inward when Nigeria govt ignore it. And since we were many, it was more easy to do. Our people in last 6 years had to look inward to provide that service for themself. it is expensive. But if you try ignorance you will know it is worth every penny.

We dont want people institution built with their own money get bomb up. It is their retirement package.

when the govt refuse to help, what are we going to do. wait till heaven fall. No. we help our self. Guess who insisted that many of them should be license me. And that time, they wanted to de licensed them. you can go and ask. But awolowo was able to bring primary education to the people. I wanted to surpass awolowo. i think leadership is in making contribution. when a person contribution is his person wealth only , that person is not a leader.

this is the problem in africa. leaders cant make claim to anything they have done for the people but more that they have gather for themself.

Nigera is West Africa, West Africa is Nigeria. Who dares look his father in the eyes!

solbil: you nigerians have a false opinnion of yourselves. Who says the AU cannot do anything. With the backing of SA, the AU can launch a successful millitary campaign against those HIV infested simpletons you call soldiers. This is so possible with our superior fighter jets.

^^^

Who let d dogs out ? crawl back into the slimy pit u escaped from.

Hehehehe...see who's talking about HIV/AIDS! Wonders shall never end. SAn sef follow dey yab for AIDS matter....una go wound person wt lafta for here o! Next na to call person r.apist abi car-jackers...

[/quote]

andrewza: Nigeria is not the top gun in africa. But that not the point. Both party's are wrong and right here.


The SAAF could fly there if they could use air bases in other country's. And if it is a AU mission this would be the case. But I doubt they would. There would be no need

There is no need to invade you. There is all ready a civil war waiting to happen in Nigeria. And there are 2 terrorist/militia groups in Nigeria. A simple economic strangling and surgical strikes would be enough to force a diplomatic out come. Or the coup leaders can watch has the nation burns in a civil war.

The real big player would be navel forces shutting down the sea trade. ECOWAS combined could not stand up to Nigeria. But there are other AU nations who could do a blockade. South Africa the most likely to pull it off. Could do it with 2 frigates one submarine and one combat support ship plus other AU ships. Since Nigeria makes most of it money from the selling of crude oil from off shore drills it would be devastating for the economy.




But I doubt South Africa would support or take part in any operation in Nigeria.

Nigeria's role in ECOMOG and AU peace keeping force is a proof that she is the top gun in Africa.

Any frigate brought close enough to have an impact on Nigerian soil will be sunk by our fleet of subs, underate d Nigerian Military might at ur own peril. SA's inexperinced military do not stand a chance.


Nigeria is not on d brink of a civil war, yes the situation we find ourselves in presently is daunting but we'll pull just as we always have, that's the spirit of a Nigerian.

Uche2005: No, ecowas can only complain. but they will not be able to return nigeria back to democracy, because most of the west africa countries depend on nigeria. so nigeria will cut them off supply. and they dont want that. So they would pretend like there was no military coup in Nigeria. Nobody will complain in west africa, if there is a coup in nigeria because they know nigeria army will overthrow that govt that complain.

This is why democracy is in serious danger.

alot of people from ghana live nigeria, so ghana will not take a risk on its citizen. Benin republic will not. Chad, niger, cameroon , togo all depend on nigeria. Ivory coast is going through alot, their army not united. Liberia, sierra leone is in trouble economically, that is nearly 10 countries out. mali make 11. senegal just had a new president. has it problem. No country in west africa will help nigeria. or even complain.

when u say nigerian military I laugh! Even BH with 100 members cannot be defeated by Nigerian 'military'. Try it and Ghana will take leadership to attack nigeria.

gidiMonsta:
Nigeria's role in ECOMOG and AU peace keeping force is a proof that she is the top gun in Africa.

Any frigate brought close enough to have an impact on Nigerian soil will be sunk by our fleet of subs, underate d Nigerian Military might at ur own peril. SA's inexperinced military do not stand a chance.


Nigeria is not on d brink of a civil war, yes the situation we find ourselves in presently is daunting but we'll pull just as we always have, that's the spirit of a Nigerian.

You have a large army that dose not mean it is a good army. And your internal military actions show you not to be the top gun in Africa.


You have no subs. Only your flag ship presence a threat and a small one at that.

The amount of tribal hatred on this forum says other wise. Give enough pressure and Nigeria would fold.

nigeria is not that easy to win.

There is nothing ecowas can do. South africa will not attack nigeria. So you can see. it is hard. If the army overthrow, life goes on. It is hard to remove the nigeria army from power except by coup.

benin republic or niger republic may win a war with nigeria. but it will be hard for other africa countries to do it or attack nigeria.

If Benin republic expand it land mass toward the river niger. nigeria will not win. If niger republic expand down south. Nigeria will not win. abit complicated to explain. Benin republic and niger republic are the only two africa countries that can win a war against nigeria in africa easy.

I doubt if any african country could defeat and hold Nigeria. To many people. But this has nothing to do with war. More to do with reversing coup. So military action if used would be limited.


I agree SA would stay out of it. No need to get involved. We may send forces to extracted our people but I doubt any real military force eould go. Unless it was a AU mission and I doubt that it would happen.

you must ask first , if nigerian themself want you to restore back democracy or if they want the govt.

Let me share my experience with you. I was travelling the other time. and I did not know I was about to be frame for importation of arm. The good thing, the US system must have know i was able to be frame, because they prevented me from traveling, which was odd to me at the time. I knew something must have been wrong. I did not know I was about to be frame for arm importation. that they were only preventing me from traveling so that I could not be frame in a country.


at the time, i was wondering why they tried to switched my flight,gate and all that several times. they did it so much, they were only preventing me from been framed.

If I may recollect, it's not once nor twice, that we had coup in Nigeria, maybe, you should change your post to - CAN THE UN THREATEN NIGERIA TO RETURN TO CIVILIAN RULE IN CASE OF A COUP?

musiwa.:
nigeria is not that easy to win.

There is nothing ecowas can do. South africa will not attack nigeria. So you can see. it is hard. If the army overthrow, life goes on. It is hard to remove the nigeria army from power except by coup.

benin republic or niger republic may win a war with nigeria. but it will be hard for other africa countries to do it or attack nigeria.

If Benin republic expand it land mass toward the river niger. nigeria will not win. If niger republic expand down south. Nigeria will not win. abit complicated to explain. Benin republic and niger republic are the only two africa countries that can win a war against nigeria in africa easy.

Mr. Musiwa, can you expatiate more on why you think Niger and Benin Republic can win a war against Nigeria, cheers.

I ithink i need to clear some misconceptions here by some people here both nigerian and SA'ns

the thread was because of the seemingly ease with which ECOWAS is pressuring Mali. It was to Know what leverage ECOWAS has, if any,to pressure Nigeria to anything for that Matter.

and to some of our SA brothers here using BH as guage for the Nigerian Army effectiveness. First u should Know that BH is not fighting a conventional war (it is engaged in assymetrical battles with NA) and only few nations have experience in assymetrical and counter insurgency battles. even the US hasnt been able to sub due the Taliban (Example is Kuna province immediately they pulled out taliban were back in control) so SA army might probably have done worst against BH (cos i dont now when ever the SA army have left their barracks except for rescue missions and war games) The SA Army might be more equiped than the NA army,but in terms of battlefield expirience theyve got nothing on us.

andrewza:

You have a large army that dose not mean it is a good army. And your internal military actions show you not to be the top gun in Africa.


You have no subs. Only your flag ship presence a threat and a small one at that.

The amount of tribal hatred on this forum says other wise. Give enough pressure and Nigeria would fold.

[quote author=andrewza]I doubt if any african country could defeat and hold Nigeria. To many people. But this has nothing to do with war. More to do with reversing coup. So military action if used would be limited.


I agree SA would stay out of it. No need to get involved. We may send forces to extracted our people but I doubt any real military force eould go. Unless it was a AU mission and I doubt that it would happen.

@ Andrew,

SA is definitely a country wt respectable military in Africa. But confusing domestic capability with ability to project military might overseas is erronous; but thats what it would amount to between SA and Nigeria. Both lack such capacity presently.

The last time I checked, One out of every four "south afric-ANTS" is HIV positive. Now, how about getting some anti-retroviral drugs? Swine!

solbil: you nigerians have a false opinnion of yourselves. Who says the AU cannot do anything. With the backing of SA, the AU can launch a successful millitary campaign against those HIV infested simpletons you call soldiers. This is so possible with our superior fighter jets.

I agree SA could not invade Nigeria and I doubt we would try. But we can deploy the navy that far for blockade of the ports. If we can get access to a friendly port nearby for support.

I agree Nigeria is fighting a difficult fight but they could do better. The botched rescue mission is a example.

The AIDS ratio in the defense force is lower due to constant medical checks and greater education on the risks.


To answer the question could ECOWAS(with no out side help) force a military coup leader in Nigeria to step down? NO!

andrewza:

You have a large army that dose not mean it is a good army. And your internal military actions show you not to be the top gun in Africa.


You have no subs. Only your flag ship presence a threat and a small one at that.

The amount of tribal hatred on this forum says other wise. Give enough pressure and Nigeria would fold.

Don't insult us we do have subs, infact our Navy just sent out some officers to Pakistan in feb. to train on sub maneuver and repair techniques.

Forget the bogus tribal hatred u c on nairaland, when ur lunatics were killing Nigerians a few years ago, the Ibo boys in SA defended Nigerians regardless of tribe.

You have no subs. Sorry the only thing I can find on Nigeria and subs is wish list of the navy for subs. You have no Subs if you say other wise post a source.


I am not insulting you I am point out your faults.


There was a common enemy in the xenophobic attacks. That will not be the case in a civil war.

@ gidimonster ,

Nigerian Navy has no subs. Only fast attack frigates, Corvettes and smaller boats.

@ Andrew

SA doesn't hav d capacity for such blockade. Do u know how long is d Nigerian maritime stretch? 800km+. Even without a fight, u can't blockade it effectively, not mentioning when u will definitely b in for a big fight away from home. U must b a super power to b able to achieve that or at least own a deployable air craft carrier.

I agree it would be hard. And we could not shut down the water trade 100%. But that is not needed. We only need to


A deal with your navy
B blockade the main port
C provide the ECOWAS/AU navy support

Your biggest source of income is crude oil and those are large ships needing large Harbor and Port facilities. We could do a lot of economic damage buy only blocking one port.


Of course has I said would never happen. South Africa would need every other AU nation to ask(beg) them first.

^

That might b possible though, but that will b some very expensive adventure both economically and politically.

Baseline is that Nigeria has never seen SA as an immediate threat hence not positioned her military to handle such "threat". Had we been within close geographical proximity, d balance wld surely had been different. But if the immediate situation puts SA as a threat, the military structure will b changed to meet it.

True the cost would be high and our current defense budget would not cover it. We would need money from the emergency fund and from the AU. But has I said South Africa would never support a action like that unless we where forced by the rest of Africa.

andrewza: True the cost would be high and our current defense budget would not cover it. We would need money from the emergency fund and from the AU. But has I said South Africa would never support a action like that unless we where forced by the rest of Africa.

even if you were forced into it, you cannot succesfully attack naija. I laughed when you mentioned a sub and a couple of other things. Do you honestly think a sub can do all of the work required? Even if the rest of africa joins you, that would still be very dificult. You will stand a chance only if egypt supports fully. But egypt like we know is not bothered about africa. You said our navy is contested in the region pls can you mention that navy?

@andrewza you seem not to know anything about nigeria and its security challenges. Let me edu you a bit. Nigeria is a multinational country. Each of these nations have diff and sometimes selfish and unresonable interests. The nigerian state has as its goal above anything else the unity of the country which makes the country a bit careful in tackling security challenges. various nations see this as a weak point so they blackmail the naija state. They know the state's hand is tied behind itself and they take full advantage. So you can see how complicated the issue is. Th security challenges is not something that an all out millitary can solve. Had it been it is all about military response, all these groups BH MEND would have been flushed out a long time ago.

souldust: even if you were forced into it, you cannot succesfully attack naija. I laughed when you mentioned a sub and a couple of other things. Do you honestly think a sub can do all of the work required? Even if the rest of africa joins you, that would still be very dificult. You will stand a chance only if egypt supports fully. But egypt like we know is not bothered about africa. You said our navy is contested in the region pls can you mention that navy?

A typo on from my side. I wanted to say uncontested sorry for the miss understanding there. Has for the Sub. It will have one job. We got 2 if you think it is needed but me I feel one is enough. Sink the largest Nigerian ship out at sea. Your flag ship is the first choice since it is a actual threat (a small one since it is alone). With her gone we can do what we want on you waters. Provided we do not stray to close to shore based guns.

souldust: @andrewza you seem not to know anything about nigeria and its security challenges. Let me edu you a bit. Nigeria is a multinational country. Each of these nations have diff and sometimes selfish and unresonable interests. The nigerian state has as its goal above anything else the unity of the country which makes the country a bit careful in tackling security challenges. various nations see this as a weak point so they blackmail the naija state. They know the state's hand is tied behind itself and they take full advantage. So you can see how complicated the issue is. Th security challenges is not something that an all out millitary can solve. Had it been it is all about military response, all these groups BH MEND would have been flushed out a long time ago.

I under stand that you face a more political problem than military problem. You need to bring all the tribes together and under stand you are one. So you think you the only nation with many tribes in it. South africa still has a zulu king. But we have come together. If nigeria could do that then they will deserve the title giant of africa.

souldust: @andrewza you seem not to know anything about nigeria and its security challenges. Let me edu you a bit. Nigeria is a multinational country. Each of these nations have diff and sometimes selfish and unresonable interests. The nigerian state has as its goal above anything else the unity of the country which makes the country a bit careful in tackling security challenges. various nations see this as a weak point so they blackmail the naija state. They know the state's hand is tied behind itself and they take full advantage. So you can see how complicated the issue is. Th security challenges is not something that an all out millitary can solve. Had it been it is all about military response, all these groups BH MEND would have been flushed out a long time ago.

I under stand that you face a more political problem than military problem. You need to bring all the tribes together and under stand you are one. So you think you the only nation with many tribes in it. South africa still has a zulu king. But we have come together. If nigeria could do that then they will deserve the title giant of africa.

ecowas cant do anything, where are they going to get money from. and most of them just want to mind their own business.


What will Ecowas says is their reason for wanting to threaten a military govt in Nigeria, it is hard for ecowas to say anything. Boni yayi knows that nigeria has satellite pictures problem, As Jonathan Goodluck done anything to correct injustice since. NO. Jonathan Goodluck have not correct any injustice.

So is Boni yayi going to say he does not know we have problem, No and Jonathan Goodluck did not correct it before the military overthrow them, NO. and I am sure boni yayi will have told other members of Ecowas of the problem of satellite picture which Jonathan Goodluck refused to correct. If the army kill Jonathan Goodluck, how could those president of west africa justice an threat to Nigeria. When they have not done anything to correct it.

It is time Ecowas step up and play leadership role in West africa and find a permanent solution to the Nigeria crisis. before it is too late. If not. the army is the only solution at the moment.

It show lack of leadership in west africa that Ecowas have not impose a transition govt in nigeria to replace the present govt. after several bombing. Do ecowas wait till everything get out of hand before they act.

What do Ecowas expect from the people to sit down and watch as they are been cheated. No. The only option people now have is to use the army to ovethrow the govt. To avoid this. Ecowas need to step up it game and at least for once in the time of Ecowas step up to leadership and fix the problem in Nigeria and break up Nigeria to avoid more blood .

Why is there a need for Ecowas parliament and meeting of president. Is this meeting called to drink tea. Ecowas should have balls. And we as Nigerian are willing for ecowas to step in and fix it.

I can tell you, The Northerners or Boko haram group people will rather listen to Ecowas than listen to Jonathan Goodluck govt. For once let Ecowas have balls. if not the army will have no choice than overthrow the govt to correct the issue.




Benin - five(5) seats
Burkina Faso - six(6) seats
Cape Verde - five(5) seats
Cote d'Ivoire - (7) seats
Gambia - (5) seats
Ghana - eight( seats
Guinea - six(6) seats
Guinea Bissau - five(5) seats
Liberia - five(5) seats
Mali - six(6) seats
Niger - six(6) seats
Nigeria - thirty five (35) seats
Senegal - six(6) seats
Sierra Leone -five(5) seats
Togo - five(5) seats

I am zulu

andrewza:

A typo on from my side. I wanted to say uncontested sorry for the miss understanding there. Has for the Sub. It will have one job. We got 2 if you think it is needed but me I feel one is enough. Sink the largest Nigerian ship out at sea. Your flag ship is the first choice since it is a actual threat (a small one since it is alone). With her gone we can do what we want on you waters. Provided we do not stray to close to shore based guns.

I hope you are aware we have anti submarine weapons !

I am zulu

I am zulu