I am watching how the Mali coup leaders were Forced to start returning to civilian rule throuh economic and military threats by ECOWAS. Do u think ECOWAS or event the AU can force that on Nigeria? Just an hypothetical situation. I think they may bow to pressure from say UN but even that I doubt.

Mali is a land locked country. So they could cut off all trade. Nigeria has ocean trade and it's navy is contested in the region. It would easily keep the sea lanes open. This of course is if the navy backs the coup.


If the AU was 100% behind it they could shut your trade down and blockade your ports.


But the biggest factor will be how stubborn and determined the coup leaders are and how loyal the troops are to them.

Ecowas can't even bark how much more bite. Nigeria is almost double the rest of Ecowas in population and gdp so without outside pressure, they can do nothing.

What did Ecowas do when the dreaded buhari overthrow shagari ?

If there is a coup in Nigeria, it will most likely be one sided. The most resistance will be internal.

No, ecowas can only complain. but they will not be able to return nigeria back to democracy, because most of the west africa countries depend on nigeria. so nigeria will cut them off supply. and they dont want that. So they would pretend like there was no military coup in Nigeria. Nobody will complain in west africa, if there is a coup in nigeria because they know nigeria army will overthrow that govt that complain.

This is why democracy is in serious danger.

alot of people from ghana live nigeria, so ghana will not take a risk on its citizen. Benin republic will not. Chad, niger, cameroon , togo all depend on nigeria. Ivory coast is going through alot, their army not united. Liberia, sierra leone is in trouble economically, that is nearly 10 countries out. mali make 11. senegal just had a new president. has it problem. No country in west africa will help nigeria. or even complain.

Ecowas will not be able to complain, only au can complain. But AU will not use military strenght in africa. And with Benin republic as head of AU, not military help is coming from AU , because it will affect him and likely see him overthrown by the nigeria army. Most africa countries dont care much about nigeria. They dont care if it break. most of them want to see it break up . Because nigeria have been given other africa countries too much of problem. so you see the problem in democracy se . so there is trouble

It should deal with Mali first!

calloti, do you know what yorubas says that omo ale lo fi awo juwe, ile baba re.

calloti, do you know what they call wo bi were dada ki o to fi owo tunu. songo, ko bi omo ale. ore o, omo ale lo fi awo juwe, ile baba re.

the western niger has over 40 universities and about 40 television station. Do you know any west africa nation that have that. the north has about 40 universities and about 40 television station too. there are more than 20 military barrack in the western niger and the north has more than 20 army barrack . no west africa country has that. so you can see the problem.

The western Niger or north niger is more worth than any west africa country in GDP.

musiwa.:
the western niger has over 40 universities and about 40 television station. Do you know any west africa nation that have that. the north has about 40 universities and about 40 television station too. there are more than 20 military barrack in the western niger and the north has more than 20 army barrack . no west africa country has that. so you can see the problem.

The western Niger or north niger is more worst than any west africa country in GDP.

Who gave this guy another crack thos early?

No Ecowas may not be able to but the UN has the power to force Civillian rule in Nigeria...

BIGER BOY: I am watching how the Mali coup leaders were Forced to start returning to civilian rule throuh economic and military threats by ECOWAS. Do u think ECOWAS or event the AU can force that on Nigeria? Just an hypothetical situation. I think they may bow to pressure from say UN but even that I doubt.

Both AU and ECOWAS will not try such. As you can see, it is a CAPTAIN that is in charge of the whole thing in mali compare to 9ja where we hava plenty GENERALS with enough experience not to mention the population of the nigerian army.

STOP DREAMING OF A COUP HERE, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE. NOT EVEN A NWE DAN FODIO OR NZEOGWU WILL TRY IT. IT IS EVEN IRRESPONSIBLE FOR THE POSTER TO START THIS THREAD.......[color=#990000][/color]

[b][/b]

musiwa.:
the western niger has over 40 universities and about 40 television station. Do you know any west africa nation that have that. the north has about 40 universities and about 40 television station too. there are more than 20 military barrack in the western niger and the north has more than 20 army barrack . no west africa country has that. so you can see the problem.

The western Niger or north niger is more worst than any west africa country in GDP.

This guy is high on

Probably the UN. Am not so sure about ECOWAS or AU. Especially the ECOWAS,i can imagine what their sanctions would be like. Imagine the Likes of Ghana,SL and Ivory coast giving us a trade sanction. Lol. At their detriment.

rotimy: STOP DREAMING OF A COUP HERE, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE. NOT EVEN A NWE DAN FODIO OR NZEOGWU WILL TRY IT. IT IS EVEN IRRESPONSIBLE FOR THE POSTER TO START THIS THREAD.......[color=#990000][/color]

And it is responsible to counter opinions without facts

@op the truth is that it is only the UN that has the might and resources to force Nigeria to democracy.
But even at that, it depends on the resolve of the coupists; afterall they tried everything on Abacha but he didn't bulge

Rubbish! Those of you who are hoping the army takes over have not seen anyting yet.

which kind question be this?

Coupe is not some thing you think within 24hrs without a resourses and take action, forget it before a coupe can be successful their must be a strong internal that has the power to help them thru, so forget that in our contry it cant happen they have done it before they gain nothing at the end.so let's pray may the ALMIGHTY help 9JA for a better leader so the masses will benefit from the country.

any coup effected in 9ja firstly we be resisted by 9jarians on the basis of tribalism.
howeva the cabal to topple the gov is likely gonna be the mallams in pretense to conduct election,manipulate it and handover to a mallam.
but i believe that any coup in 9ja will be faced with divine opposition and resistance by internal power block within the military no matter their old school tactis of wiping away one section of army of anoda religion.
Ecowas can only sympathise ,AU tro SA will shout a little while Isreal and USA wil champion the UN latter followed by russia,china and britain but the stubborn malam may resit tro the islamic countries support this will end up in a joint UN military action against d propose boko haram deguise military coup plot.then 9ja wil vote for a referandum to split into 8countries.

Coup. coup, coup....once again the kids on Nairaland have been let out to play. Somebody is saying rubbish about Nigerian generals compared to Malian captains.

This not 1960's or even 1980's. The world is a different place. see how easy it was for the Western world to hold onto Libya's money.

In the 1960's and even the 1980's the international world accepted any fool in khaki who took power in any backward country. Gowon had banquets with Queen of England even Idi Amin (that buffoon). Can you imagine the local Major or lieutenant at Ikeja cantonment being welcomed to the address the United Nations?

ECOWAS might not be able to pressure Nigeria directly but they will pressure AU and UN, the rest of the world will freeze our assets for one month, all commerce in the country will grind to a halt. Even the China and Russia won't be able to help because we won't be able to pay them.

A simple example, those of you who have done business with the China, when you transfer money from your Nigerian bank account to your Chinese supplier, where does the money pass? through a correspondence bank, and the correspondence bank is where? usually US, sometimes Europe - the currency used? dollars.QED.

So those pepper soup drinkers, wife beating, womanisers had better stay in the barracks, or come and do their job which is hunting BH and MEND and not think like Malian soldiers that they can do better.

Hmmm...tricky question.

It all depends on how d circumstances and personalities involved are controlled.

ECOWAS? nada! They virtually feed off palm of Nigeria one way or other. They will quickly realign wt present realities.

AU? Nada! They will issue general condemnation and individuals will come congratulating d new regime and secure their interests.

UN? Will huff and puff. Big nations will shout on pages of newspapers but secretly send proxies to secure their interests. They will place sanctions with conditions and exit clauses. Ask for transitional programme to be announced in order to lift certain sanctions. While these are being said, Shell, Chevron, Agip, Total, BP, Conoco, Siemens, BA, Virgin, etc will b doing normal businesses while Ghana, ECOWAS, AU mission in Darfur, Cote d'Ivoire, etc will b receiving arms and military equipment for "missions headed and populated by Nigeria military". No more overseas training for d military due to sanctions but Ghana Defence Institutions will continually admit Nigerian Military for joint excises wt foreign partners.

Bottomline, nothing will happen!

you nigerians have a false opinnion of yourselves. Who says the AU cannot do anything. With the backing of SA, the AU can launch a successful millitary campaign against those HIV infested simpletons you call soldiers. This is so possible with our superior fighter jets.

hmmm. very tricky question, considering the fact that ECOWAS IS Nigeria in disguise. We are just being nice by calling it ECOWAS . ECOWAS is Nigeria!

homerac7: Hmmm...tricky question.

It all depends on how d circumstances and personalities involved are controlled.

ECOWAS? nada! They virtually feed off palm of Nigeria one way or other. They will quickly realign wt present realities.

AU? Nada! They will issue general condemnation and individuals will come congratulating d new regime and secure their interests.

UN? Will huff and puff. Big nations will shout on pages of newspapers but secretly send proxies to secure their interests. They will place sanctions with conditions and exit clauses. Ask for transitional programme to be announced in order to lift certain sanctions. While these are being said, Shell, Chevron, Agip, Total, BP, Conoco, Siemens, BA, Virgin, etc will b doing normal businesses while Ghana, ECOWAS, AU mission in Darfur, Cote d'Ivoire, etc will b receiving arms and military equipment for "missions headed and populated by Nigeria military". No more overseas training for d military due to sanctions but Ghana Defence Institutions will continually admit Nigerian Military for joint excises wt foreign partners.

Bottomline, nothing will happen!

The only informed post so far. It is like asking if UN can force coupists out if they stage one in USA

solbil: you nigerians have a false opinnion of yourselves. Who says the AU cannot do anything. With the backing of SA, the AU can launch a successful millitary campaign against those HIV infested simpletons you call soldiers. This is so possible with our superior fighter jets.

South Africa will fly thousands of kilometers to conquer Nigeria on home soil. Another kid with undeserved access to Internet. Even US required bases in middle east friendly countries to attack Iraq and Afghanistan. By the way, the question is about ecowas which SA is not a part.

solbil: you nigerians have a false opinnion of yourselves. Who says the AU cannot do anything. With the backing of SA, the AU can launch a successful millitary campaign against those HIV infested simpletons you call soldiers. This is so possible with our superior fighter jets.

.

You make me laff in Afrikaans, u think ur stupid mercenaries can face the Nigeria army in a real war? Do u think Fighter Jets can fly all d way from SA here? They'll have to be freighter ed very close to Nigeria by Navy Ships that'll most likely be destroyed by Nigeria Navy ships. Your idea is simply ludricous, SA will never venture into a suicide mission such as that.

BTW: we do not have a false opinion of ourselves, we know we are the top guns in Africa. Se Fin

Nigeria is not the top gun in africa. But that not the point. Both party's are wrong and right here.


The SAAF could fly there if they could use air bases in other country's. And if it is a AU mission this would be the case. But I doubt they would. There would be no need

There is no need to invade you. There is all ready a civil war waiting to happen in Nigeria. And there are 2 terrorist/militia groups in Nigeria. A simple economic strangling and surgical strikes would be enough to force a diplomatic out come. Or the coup leaders can watch has the nation burns in a civil war.

The real big player would be navel forces shutting down the sea trade. ECOWAS combined could not stand up to Nigeria. But there are other AU nations who could do a blockade. South Africa the most likely to pull it off. Could do it with 2 frigates one submarine and one combat support ship plus other AU ships. Since Nigeria makes most of it money from the selling of crude oil from off shore drills it would be devastating for the economy.




But I doubt South Africa would support or take part in any operation in Nigeria.

there are basic security problem ecowas face. It will be very easy to overthrow the govt, here is one major problem. Boni yayi, or Attah mills or Alassane Ouattara etc all know the problem. and they would at private meeting told jonathan Goodluck solution. So even if a coup happen, they will only say, we told him so.. he was a stubborn man. It is hard at this point..

most people have lost confident in the politician.

you claim your navy or what ever you call it can destroy our destroyers but the truth is they still cannot face a MEND or the piracy in the gulf of guinea. Do you think such a millitia you call navy can stand up against the renowned SA navy? As for your HIV infested army, Boko Haram is still taking them to class so we will leave them to Boko haram to deal with. NB: we do not need to set foot on your cursed soil to fight you. All we need to do is to use our influence to empower your neighbours especially ghana to deal with you and put you in your rightful place. By so doing we reveal the real niggaria to you niggarians.