Please is there anyone with the current state of the road from lambata to bida?
I need to know how accessible is the road now.
Thank you

Simon Kolawole: Buhari didn’t inherit a healthy economy from Jonathan. Let’s get that straight

Economy Jul 24, 2016

If you were a lover of reggae music in the 1970s, you would certainly know “Time Hard”, a hit song by The Pioneers, the Jamaican three-man band. “Everyday,” they sang, sonorously, “things are getting worse.” That song was released in 1972. At the time, Nigeria was producing two million barrels of crude oil per day and selling at an average price of $1.8 per barrel. We were not yet oil-dependent, so the revenue was basically a bonus. By 1974, oil was selling for $11, six times the 1972 price, and our stomach ballooned. We became helplessly hooked on petrodollars. The only song Nigerians could be singing was: “Things are getting better.” The Pioneers would not sell.

But their song still became very relevant in the early 1980s. Average oil price fell from $34 in 1981 to $32 in 1982 and $29 in 1983, meaning serious trouble. Oil boom had sent us into an expenditure overdrive and overkill. We had taken on massive projects, importing recklessly and accumulating debts like medals. Our foreign reserves began to sink as we struggled to import basic food items, such as rice and milk. President Shehu Shagari tried to stay afloat through a “stabilisation plan” that cut spending, reduced imports and hiked duties. After the 1983 elections, the government could no longer pretend. The economy went berserk. Things fell apart.

This is 2016 and the symptoms persist. In fact, our economy has been on a downward spiral since late 2014 when oil prices started plunging. It became more pronounced in 2015, and it appears we are now breaking records as we wake up everyday. Are The Pioneers singing in the background? The naira is officially at its worst since it replaced the pound as national currency in 1973; oil production has plunged from 2.2mbpd to probably its lowest in 10 years; FX reserves are going south; inflation has gone wild; and we are just awaiting figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to confirm that we’re officially in a recession — first since 1987.

There are four points I would like to highlight as we discuss the state of the nation this morning. One, we cannot deny the fact that the crash in the price of crude oil is what got us into our current gridlock. We classically got carried away by the recent oil boom and failed to learn our lessons. Now history is mercilessly repeating itself. Two, Buhari did not inherit a healthy economy, contrary to whatever the critics say. Three, Buhari may not have been quick enough with his response to the economic crises since he assumed office, but there are no easy answers. Four, and this is the one that scares me silly, we may be in for a prolonged drought.

Here we go. My first point. If Buhari inherited crude oil price at $80 per barrel, with production levels remaining at over 2mbpd, the story would certainly be different. We have to face that fact without sentiments. The exchange rate, both official and parallel, could still be below N200/$1; our reserves would be still be fairly healthy because of the war chest; and — with subsidy — petrol would still be less than N100 per litre. Prices would stabilise. Foreign investors would likely remain attracted to us and the stock market would be bubbling. In other words, the relative growth we have enjoyed over the years owed largely to high oil prices.

Indeed, President Goodluck Jonathan was unable to build robust reserves in the time of boom — and this is very significant. Under President Olusegun Obasanjo, the highest price oil sold for was $60, and production was less than 2mbpd for the most part. He parted with $12 billion to settle foreign debts, and still left FX reserves of $43 billion, out of which $9 billion was excess crude savings. Under President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, oil went up and down, hitting $147 per barrel at some point, and sinking to $31 at its lowest. With that, Yar’Adua raised FX reserves to $62 billion by September 2008 — the highest in our history.

This is where the Jonathan team loses the argument. Oil sold for between $70 and $120 during his first four years in power (2010-2014) before the downward slide to $50 in 2015, when he left office. If our reserve management was anything like what we had under Obasanjo and Yar’Adua (when, by the way, Professor Chukwuma Soludo was the CBN governor), Jonathan could have left at least $100 billion in the reserves. If Buhari had inherited such a hefty kitty, the naira would not be gasping for breath today. Clearly, our failure to build an FX war chest in the time of plenty exposed us to the infectious diseases we are battling with today.

Why couldn’t Jonathan build robust reserves? One, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former finance minister, kept crying that Nigeria was bleeding from oil theft. Nobody listened. Over 400,000 barrels were being stolen daily. Two, NNPC failed to remit billions of dollars to CBN coffers. The man formerly known as Malam Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, then CBN governor, raised the alarm. We didn’t listen. Three, governors opposed crude oil savings, saying it is unconstitutional. Four, we maintained an artificial value for the naira for long, insisting we had “robust reserves”, but our appetite for imports was more robust. We failed to curtail the appetite because we were awash with dollars.

Our aggressive spending during the last oil boom is coming back to bite us. Instead of spending the oil wealth to deepen and regenerate the economy, we ran amok, bloating the civil service and turning political appointments to a sub-sector. The governors were hiring jets every minute to attend political meetings. Nigerians were buying jets like pure water. How many people were sending their children to foreign schools in 1999 compared to, say, 2014? We believed we had all the forex to buy the world. We totally savaged the economy. This is not about Jonathan alone — it was a national pastime: from councils and states to the colossal federal government.

My third point. Though Buhari did not inherit a wonderful economy, his ideological hangovers prevented him from acting on time to stem the tide. It’s like cancer. If you leave cancer stage one untreated, it gets bigger, and moves to stage two. Untreated, it gets worse and moves to stage three. And, finally, it gets to stage four where it has spread to other organs. The economy was probably at stage two when Buhari took over, but he felt chemotherapy would be too painful for the masses that elected him into office. Now the cancer is spreading and killing jobs and shredding the naira and shrinking the economy. That is the consequence of delayed adjustment.

My fourth and final point. Since we are still hopelessly sold to oil, and production is getting smaller by the day as a result of militant activities, I think The Pioneers will have to do a remix of “Time Hard”. Things will get even worse before they get better. You don’t transit from oil economy to industrial/service overnight. If we couldn’t do it in 40 years, I don’t expect us to do it in one year. Or even four years. Except oil recovers miraculously, this carnage will continue. Sadly, the bad situation is worsening because of socio-political tensions: the herdsmen, the Niger Delta militants and Biafra. Meanwhile, APC, the ruling party, is enmeshed in a civil war.

Where do we go from here? I honestly pity President Buhari. Despite shifting ideological grounds on the exchange rate and fuel price, the economy is still nowhere near recovering. The truth is that we are in a bad place and there are no easy ways out. It is a peculiar mess. The tasks he must face squarely now are critical. One, how do we first stabilise the economy and stop this bleeding? Two, where is the recovery road map so that the average Nigerian can hope for light at the end of the suffocating tunnel? Three, how do we ensure that if there is another oil boom, we will utilise it intelligently and finally escape from what I call the “petropathetic” syndrome?

It is very easy to point accusing fingers at Jonathan for mismanaging the economy or Buhari for not finding a quick fix, but maybe we should begin to look at the mirror as well. With oil boom, we were living false lives, holidaying in Las Vegas and holding weddings in Dubai with unearned or dubiously earned income, pretending to be rich when it was all a bubble. Now the bubble has burst. We can see clearly now. As Buhari seeks to reform the economy, we too must discipline our appetite and endure the inescapable pains of adjustment. Without another oil boom, recovery is going to be slow and painful. But in due season we shall reap — if we faint not.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

DRUMS OF WAR

The Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) has issued an ultimatum to Niger Delta militants to cease attacks on Yoruba communities — failing which the brigandage will become “an eye for an eye”. In recent times, suspected militants have been unleashing havoc, unchecked, on coastal communities in Lagos and Ogun states, shooting and looting, raiding and raping, killing and kidnapping. The OPC threat, unfortunately, is not the solution. The basic reason there is a government is to provide security for lives and property, and it will be tragic if people have to resort to self-help. That’s a perfect recipe for civil war. Ominous.

OUT OF ORDER

Alhaji Ibrahim Idris, the acting inspector-general of police, has ordered the arrest of the killers of Chief Lazarus Agaie, the traditional ruler of Bokkos, Plateau state. Really? Do the law enforcement agents need any order before they unravel crime and apprehend the suspects? I thought that’s their primary duty! When VIPs are kidnapped, we are usually informed that the IG has “ordered” that the perpetrators be arrested. This “order” business must be unique to Nigeria. Should we assume that many murderers and kidnappers are yet to be arrested because the IG has not “ordered” the police to do so? Curious.

STUDENT AFFAIRS

The National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) has done the unusual — they have finally spoken about a matter concerning Nigerian students! They recently asked the federal government to reverse the policy on post-UME tests. I was very happy that for once, NANS is talking about student issues. In the last 17 years, they have been busy defending or promoting politicians. They have been endorsing, dishing out awards to, passing votes of confidence on politicians — and visiting state houses. Very lucrative stuff. I totally forgot that it was an association set up to fight for the interest of university students! Hilarious.

HIJAB SAGA

Honestly, I never knew that Muslim pupils were not allowed to wear hijab in public schools in some states until these court cases started showing up. All my life, I have been seeing female students wearing the hijab and “Deeper Life” scarves, and I have never objected to it. Indeed, it looks so normal to me. I’ve never lost my appetite or sleep because of the way people choose to dress to express their faith. Can somebody please educate me on how hijab is a catastrophe? I would like to implore all agitated parties to allow sleeping dogs lie. Precarious.

Where can I get the tomatoes seedlings, I want to plant in Sokoto, I need contacts
Thank you

Mine is less than 20 and I mean it,because I was a strategic stubborn person. Hahaah

we cannot afford to shift the election because it will furhter make the tension tensed.

jonathan visitation is just to deceive people that he cares,but we know he wants to use it for his selfish political interest and use it as a test on his campaign train made to be in maiduguri,yobe and adamawa next week,but we have resolved in the north and no going back,you cannot fool us anymore mr jona joker of 2015,mr 2million job yearly if re-elected.

ALLAH is solidly behind you and the masses and the elites and of course the middle class are behind you and no weapon fashioned against you shall prosper.PDP must be uprooted come feb 2015 by God wish.
amen

mr GANI Olaoluwa,what did we know jonathan for in 2011 that people voted for him?no antecedents,no records of past achievements till this moment,just get it right that the middle class that you guys have almost reduced to zero and the masses have spoken and we have decided that we want change and we are ready to change jonathan and vote for change.
any yoruba who decided to vote jonathan is a..................
vote change, vote out jonathan,vote GMB/OSIBANJO FEB 2015.

ITS JUST A WAY TO SHOW JONATHAN LOVE OF LEAVING ASO ROCK AND LET THE MAN THAT HAS THE CAPABILITY OF SALVAGING THE COUNTRY OF THE SAGA IT FINDS ITSELF FROM THE HANDS OF THE PDP,AND THAT IS GMB/PYO 2015

i hope not set on fire by students?thinking aloud

RIP our inlaw,may Allah accept your return and take care of your children.

the rally must have been hijacked.

i also prefer him go for governor of sokoto,so that his political career will not end by 2015 and will loose more of credibility, nigeria is large for him,we need urgent and radical rescue from the hands of enemies of peace in this country.

i also prefer him go for governor of sokoto,so that his political career will not end by 2015 and will loose more of credibility,nigeria is large for him,we need urgent and radical rescue from the hands of enemies of peace in this country.

what for please?

my children's 1st word was LA ILLAHA ILLA LAHU

Not sure i have an Ex i remember of right now.lo!

it is a good stride and we expect him to go into job creation as well and touch virtually all local government with one developmental project or the other.
keep it up!APC GOVERNORS ARE INDEED WORKING

it is a welcome development,however we are not expecting them to airstrike and still go back to barracks and stay until they cure the injured ones and regroup again.they need to continually dislodge them and follow up with raiding for next one week non stop and by that results can be recorded.

The clearing of the major road hawkers is well understood for security purposes as purported by the security experts,however there should be palliative measures for them, but the closure of the legal shops, who must have been paying various taxes levied against them by the plateau state govt. who do their legitimate business and earn their means of livelihood only to wake up and see men in uniform taking over the market area is evil and morally bad in principle and practice.
I will describe the act as Sinful, iniquitous, malicious, unjustifiable, malevolent, vicious, dreadful, unpleasant, unrighteous, ungodly, impious, profane, profligate, dissolute and villainous, wicked and extremely jealous attitude with tribal sentiments, so nefarious, scandalous and reprobate attitude targeted at causing untold hardship to other tribes that contribute to the growth of the state commerce and economy wise.
Please borrow me more word to qualify the actions of the plateau state Government on the closure of the market.

Ref:
Plateau declares complex, shops unsafe for business
http://www.punchng.com/news/plateau-declares-complex-shops-unsafe-for-business/

Importance of WATERMELON In QURAN and HADITHS
Prophet (PBUH) said : “Water melon is diet as well as drink. It washes and purifies the urinary bladder. It increases the sexual power”
Prophet (PBUH) ate watermelon with fresh dates
Prophet (PBUH) ate ripe dates with water melon

Cure for several Ailments
Asthma
The antioxidants, such as Citronella in watermelon can reduce toxins in the body. Some of these toxins are believed to trigger asthma attacks.

Arthritis
Watermelon is rich in Vitamin C and Beta-Carotenes. Both have anti-inflammatory properties that can help relieve the symptoms of arthritis.

Bladder Problems
Containing 92% water, this melon acts as a natural diuretic that cleanses your kidney and bladder.

High Cholesterol
The cleansing properties of watermelon may also reduce the risk of clogged arteries. The fruit is also believed to increase HDL (good cholesterol levels).

Constipation
A glass of watermelon juice can naturally eliminate waste and promote proper digestion.

Bloating
Again, the diuretic effect of watermelon can eliminate water retention. It is especially recommended for women who retain fluids during menstruation or pregnancy.

Heart Disease
Watermelon contains Folic acid and Citrulline that works in tandem with other essential vitamins. Some research indicates that these vitamins may reduce the risk of a heart attack, stroke and colon cancer.

Itchy Skin
As the water from the melon cleanses your system, it can flush out the toxic waste that cause some forms of itchiness.

Prostate Cancer
The Lycopene in watermelon has been extensively reported to reduce the risk of prostate cancer.

Blemishes
Watermelon can also be used as a beauty aid to reduce skin blemishes. Simply rub your skin with a small piece of watermelon. Leave the juice on for 10 minutes before rinsing.

ogbeni is working and we appreciate his efforts as been galantry

keep it up

quid:
I think GEJ is yoruba.

He cant even be a yoruba man because yorubas are of high integrity,and you know what that means!

There are multiple ways oil producing states are making big money from the federal government, such as royalty, SURE-P and NDDC but have nothing to show for it.
So why are the national confab delegates agreeing with the five percent increase in revenue derivation to oil producing states?
Is this GEJ transformation agenda to further enrich his people?

Mighty jets get ready to bid for mikel and make sure he cuts down his hair may be t will help him play better there,gbam

Tafugo: GEJ is the best Igbo president ever.

Is GEJ AN IGBO MAN?

I think chidoka deserves a ministerial appointment for he has done well in moving FRSC forward in nigeria