₦airaland Forum

All I sense is fear from the Agbadorian camp. They say Makinde cannot deliver Oyo to ADC and we agree but they somehow believe the 36 state governors will deliver their states to Tinubu. No be juju be that? Fayose can keep providing entertainment in his clownshow while real political horsetradings continue to take place. Agbadorians will try to put the betrayal tag on Makinde but they will fail. Tinubu never supported Obasanjo. Seyi owes him nothing!

Seyi! Eja n'la! Oko Tinubu! Omoluabi!

professorPABX:
We are not saying the same as usual, nairaland may ban me as usual to allow you confuse yourself and other ignorant people. Intelligently and clearly the blind and dumb knows we never said the same thing on the issue of Makinde.

Historically, two elections were never the same. It always get better and dynamically it shows before the election. I know Mallam Nasir El Rufai during ABACHA regime and I know Mallam Hakeem Baba Ahmed in 1998 when he was the Executive Secretary of INEC, that was when El Rufai was a member of Presidential Advisory Council to President (Gen Abubakar). Both Mallam Hakeem Baba Ahmed and Nasir El Rufai at this period would have known Tinubu would win. Atiku knows Tinubu would win. It is not a matter of Regional voting as it is done in South East because of vendetta. ABIOLA defeated TOFA in Kano. I can authoritatively tell you Tinubu would defeat Atiku in Kano, Jigawa, Katsina and Kaduna. In Adamawa, it may be 52 to 48 against Tinubu. I said this for a reason I know very well but with all due respect to Waziri Adamawa I will not say it online.

What happened in 2023 was a collective battle against Tinubu which began after 2019 election and after the removal of Oshiomole as Chairman and the death of Ajimobi. From 2020 to 2023 APC had no opposition, the only Political opposition in Nigeria was internal battle between Buhari Camp and Tinubu Camp. No opposition for 3 years just scheming against Tinubu supremacy and presidential ambition.

When Tambuwal sent OBI out of PDP to the street, Politically, OBI was nobody until OKUPE and Baba Ayo Adebanjo picked him up from Political gutter as Political Orphan and take his IBO Presidency as the battle of their lifetime which ultimately they both died for simultaneously. They gave him life Politically and took the case to OBASANJO and others that have scores to settle with Tinubu. The fact that they never witnessed the second year anniversary of Tinubu government shows that something happened in the Spirit realm.

After Buhari, the North has never accepted Atiku as their leader. Just like Shehu Yaradua defeated Falae by 90% in SDP primary in South West because Falae was not a replacement for Baba Awo or Abraham Adesanya or Baba Ajasin. The South South which you claimed follow IBO in electoral voting pattern is false. Bitterness of Jonathan loss made them voted the last time. During June12, 1993 ABIOLA lost Rivers because of Ikwerre but won EDO, Delta, AkwaIbom and Cross River.

This time around, Voting pattern in Rivers, Bayelsa, AkwaIbom, Cross River, Edo and Delta would be entirely different.

All the crying about electronic transmission of results which can never be 50% successful is to create chaos and crisis and to cause confusion which will lead to election annulment. The key players in Nigeria know that Tinubu would win. All the set-up of hooligans to disrupt ADC meetings by ADC is because they have nothing formidable on ground. They are confused. They want to create confusion and crisis as a coverup.

Your last paragraph is what I'm most interested in since time will take care of the rest. You claimed ADC are sending thugs to disrupt their own gatherings and that's just disingenuous. Aside from that, would you say the simultaneous crisis in LP and PDP does not have Tinubu's hand in it? Why is he afraid of a fair contest? Okowa was VP candidate and a sitting governor in 2023, why couldn't he deliver Delta state? Aren't you being bias by thinking only Seyi Makinde will fail to deliver his state while all other governors will deliver Tinubu in their states? The South wouldn't just cower to Tinubu and vote him simply because he undemocratically disenfranchised their preferred candidate from the race. The best outcome Tinubu can hope for is to have voter apathy. Very few who didn't vote for him in 2023 will queue up to do so in 2027.

We can feel the pulse. It's barely a year to the election and Tinubu is still not loved in the South. Forget the defecting governors. APC had 21 governors in 2023 and Tinubu only won in 12 states. Nearly half of those 12 states were not APC-governed states. He's already panicking and going after Elrufai which is a strategic mistake as far as the North is concerned.

Tinubu will only end up making a Buhari out of Elrufai. It doesn't help his cause that Elrufai supported his presidency and he ended up betraying him after luring him to the Senate with a view to embarrass him. As at today, Tinubu is still not popular in the South. They try to window-dress the optics by paying PR merchants and hypemen like Cubana Chiefpriest to make a lot of noise but there is still no substance amongst the voting Southern electorates. Only resistance. As at today, Tinubu does not have a pathway to victory that does not depend on Northern support.

Even for an AU summit happening within Africa where the Nigerian president would have seized the opportunity to assert himself on the continent, Tinubu still chooses to delegate it. Anyways, it's fine. We wouldn't want what happened in Turkey to repeat itself. Let him delegate all foreign visits from now henceforth to Shettima and face domestic affairs head-on.

ChiefOloye:
To answer your question; why do you think people prefer APC and PDP? It is because they both have structural coverage across the country. If Ribadu becomes the flag bearer of APC, with the backing of an incumbent Government, walahi, he will win. To your 2nd question, if PMB had supported PYO, he would have been voted for in the SouthWest, because they wouldn't have had a better choice in another political party with a wider or equal coverage.

Your theory was correct until 2023 when Peter Obi ran under an obscure LP and defeated Tinubu decisively in the South. Believe it or not, Tinubu only got 5.6m Northern votes because Elrufai kept singing on the need for Northerners to keep their word and return the favour, despite sceptism from some Northerners on the untrustworthy nature of Tinubu. Tinubu betraying Elrufai simply proved all sceptics right. It was an own goal and this is not even just because of the figure, Elrufai. It's the symbolism of the treachery. It is also the major reason why Kwankwaso didn't end up decamping to APC. Trust deficit and fear of betrayal.

If Buhari had foisted Osinbajo on the APC, Tinubu would have decamped to SDP and the entire SW would have moved along with him. You know it. The cries about the betrayal from the North will also be sang in the SW for generations yet unborn. Osinbajo still bears the betrayal tag even to this day, despite not winning the primaries. Tinubu enjoyed support from the North due to principles but he shouldn't push his luck too far to think he can impose a leader on the North. No one can. It will be viewed with too much suspicion.

professorPABX:
Your analysis of Makinde is extremely wrong. Makinde cannot deliver Oyo State to Tinubu. Oyo State without Makinde is for Tinubu and APC is coming back to OYO State Government House. Makinde is valueless as far as 2027 is concerned.

Coming to those people, as I have always said, based on my experiences as a student in the University in South East several years ago it is a wastage of effort and wastage of money to rely on them. Seyi Tinubu is a young man who is inexperienced about the behavioral patterns and cultural orientation of Nigeria. He is naive and as a young man he is being carried away by Glamour and Fair Weather Friends. Seyi is naive and inexperienced. Those people can never vote for Tinubu. I remembered how SDP and not ABIOLA won Anambra by 51.5% against 48.5% in 1993 because of Anthony Anenih lobbying and pleading with Ezeife the then Governor of Anambra. Despite all the plea, Ojukwu refused. He said the Secretary is a man that serves his master Tea in the office. We were young, we never knew it was more than that. They made ABIOLA to lose Rivers State to Tofa. Going through various Social Media platforms you can see the bitterness and deep hatred these people harbour towards Tinubu and the YORUBAS. You can see the blackmailing, insult and assault. It is a wastage of effort expecting anything from the South East.

Bayo Onanuga, Dele Alake and madam (Oluremi Tinubu) should not expect anything good from that side (South East), I know what I am saying. When I was posting using my Personal Account since year 2022 I prophesied that Senator Tinubu would win the 2023 election. In the heat of the campaign, I asked Baba Odumbaku to forget about all the issues with CCC Headquarters and meet Pastor EMF Oshoffa and Pastor Tosho to pray for Asiwaju at Imeko where Baba SBJ is buried.

I can authoritatively say Asiwaju would win 2027 election with wide margin. There is no any opposition, ADC is not an opposition. They want to create chaos and crisis, they are projecting election annulment and that is why they are sponsoring electronic transmission that cannot be 50% successful. They want to scuttle the democratic processes. We are looking at how they want to achieve that.

We are simply saying the same thing as far as Makinde is concerned. This also puts to bed all claims that having 36 governors will deliver Tinubu at the polls since the SW will prioritise their region. Other regions will largely do the same in 2027. Tinubu won the 2023 elections with 5.6m votes from the North. He only won 4 Southwestern states across the entire South and lost the South woefully to Obi. Tinubu cannot replicate his 2023 Northern votes, and it's foolhardy to claim he has replaced those votes with votes from the South when you have publicly admitted that he still won't win the Southeast. Historically, even the Southsouth has always largely mirrored the Southeast in terms of voting patterns. How then does Tinubu intend to win the election, even with rigging?

Ebubu6:
Senator from Ebonyi state proudly named Nwaebonyi meaning child of Ebonyi, clearing the way for his political godfather, Dave Umahi to have a clear pass at the Senate, and it worked!

Dave is teaching all of you a lesson in politics. Aside Hope Uzodimma, I don't know a politically dexterous man as Dave in South East politics.

This is beyond politics. Governance comes with accountability. He was simply being grilled about contracts and how he has handled funds under his ministry. Oshiomhole is an APC senator and a Southerner too. Unless you are directly benefitting from Umahi, I don't see how this benefits you. He won't also be minister forever. There will always be a day for reckoning.

ChiefOloye:
If only you know the intrigues that led to the breakdown of Tinubu/El Rufai relationship, it wasn't Asiwaju's alleged betrayer, but the influence of sone Northerners who saw Malam as a future threats to their aspirations.
There are 3 or 4 factors that can stop Ribadu in 2031:
1. The very unlikelihood of President Tinubu failing to win in 2027;
2. Atiku agreeing to work for Asiwaju in 2027 with the agreement of succeeding in 2031;
3. International pressures and interests; and
4. Above sll God Almighty.

Lol. When the time is nigh and Tinubu has betrayed Ribadu, you will be here to tell us it was influence of some Northerners or international pressures that denied Ribadu the chance. Thankfully, we will never find out. But assuming you are right, would Tinubu force the North to vote Ribadu? Would the Southwest have voted Osinbajo if Buhari foisted him on APC?

ChiefOloye:
Like jokes, Nuhu Ribadu will rule Nigeria 🇳🇬 before Atiku or Elrufai. The young man is APC flag bearer for 2031 presidential election. If you know ypu know.

You people will betray him when the time comes. By this time in 2023, it was Elrufai you were tipping to rule Nigeria after Tinubu. You all have been unravelled. What about Shettima? Is he no longer the chosen one?

Toolegit123:
It isn't a pity that someone like Hell Rufai despite all his atrocities could still be gallivanting around and feeling like a saint?

Someone who shoulda been behind bars a long time ago.

Was this atrocities before or after he campaigned for Tinubu everywhere, including to Chatham house and made him President? At what point did Tinubu became aware of the "atrocities"? Tinubu has looked at the 2027 numbers and the numbers are not looking good. He's getting more desperate but it's inevitable.

lawani:
I believe there are intelligence reports incriminating El Rufai. If that is so then the President not arresting him is cowardice

"Intelligence report" is not a cover to override the law. Elrufai is a public figure who has served the country in various capacities. The responsible and legal thing to do is to serve him an invitation. Attempting to intimidate him at the airport is cowardice. We know all these is borne out of fear and panic.

lawani:
Yoruba are not known for cowardice. Apart from some Igbos who are miscreants, who else make the claim? Have you ever seen a Hausa or Fulani, Kanuri and etc make the claim?. It is an unfounded claim to make. How will you feel if I start parotting online that Igbos are known for cowardice even without having any proof of such?

I'm sorry but what do you call attempting to arrest a person returning freely to the country on his accord at the airport, if not cowardice? Going after opposition figures and incarcerating them without any clear charge is cowardice on steroids!

9jatriot:
Appointment or not, their trials remain ongoing. Friend non de for accounting.

We hear you. We also believe that Okowa, Tinubu's newly appointed renewed hope ambassador for the Southsouth region will stand trials under Tinubu.

frog12:
so na him supporters stop the arrest

No be by cho cho cho. Elrufai will submit himself upon receipt of a formal invitation. He will never be intimidated.

Putindbutt:
We don't need him arrested at the airport, we need him detained when he reports himself at the EFCC office. His passport seized, that's just one step out of many. Prepare his bed beside Malami.

That still won't save Tinubu come 2027. He will have to cancel elections and declare himself a dictator.

Lol. Who is afraid of Elrufai? Sai Malam!

“Listen nobody, not even the president will tell me I have to do something”

- Mallam El-Rufai to security operative. pic.twitter.com/8lcB93hvNg

— Mal. Imran U. Wakili (PULLO) 👑 #iSTANDWITHELRUFAI (@IU_Wakilii) February 12, 2026

9jatriot:
The same people who were claiming if there was a security report against him why was he not arrested are the same set of people now crying betrayal upadan.

Since Tinubu entered in 2023, there is nothing I can remember that he was wrong about. When he said subidy is gone, many questioned the motive and timing, today he has been vindicated.

when Emefiele was arrested, or even Malaimi, today we can see how they contributed to the destruction of the economy.

What about on Okowa and Yahaya Bello? Was he wrong or right on those ones because they have since bagged appointmens from Tinubu after "aligning"? Tinubu might end up becoming the first former president to be tried and humiliated after his tenure.

Sponsored PR. Ribadu has no single grassroots support on the ground nor influence beyond his current position. Attempting to use federal might to take out future perceived opponents will still not win him Northern support. That's not the way of the North.

phadul:
El rufai is simply reaping what he sowed, he brought in Tinubu at all cost for selfish interests not knowing Tinubu would betray him now he wants to get back at the government to settle scores and wants us to join him in his quest! they are all rotten to the core these politicians Tinubu should just continue till 2027 perhaps by then these recycled selfish politicians will be replaced by fresh faces

He simply delivered his party's candidate. That's all. No one is asking you to join anything. Do whatever pleases you.

hopexter:
Mention those that helped Tinubu that he betrayed? El-Rufai is now you zombies new Mazi. Always supporting failures.

You cannot rewrite history. Elrufai made Tinubu president.

LibertyRep:
Attempted to? They aren't just ready to arrest him

Put body na. Elrufai will submit himself to the EFCC, DSS or whomsoever but he will not be humiliated.

“Listen nobody, not even the president will tell me I have to do something”

- Mallam El-Rufai to security operative. pic.twitter.com/8lcB93hvNg

— Mal. Imran U. Wakili (PULLO) 👑 #iSTANDWITHELRUFAI (@IU_Wakilii) February 12, 2026

Otti is under immense pressure to defect to APC. If I were him, I will defect and collect my 250 billion. It changes nothing as far as the presidential elections in 2027 is concerned.

Lol. Paul Biya is afraid and has panicked. The die is already cast! It is now clear that the Kwankwaso saga was also engineered. Nigeria is fast turning into a police state under Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Flangelo12:
The economy is improving.

You cannot sell Obi to anybody when he clearly shies away from any issue of insecurity in his own domain.

Go siddon somewhere.

You are the only one buying your own lies.

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/855243-report-flags-92-fraudulent-projects-under-tinubu-administration.html

We are not surprised. Tinubu is scared of defeat but it's inevitable.

Lithiumite:
Pls don't come crying when he is schemed out of the party ticket and expected to be running up and down campaigning for atiku.

I am not bothered about that. You are. Obi is in the ADC. He will contest the primaries and support whoever emerges if he doesn't win.

Lithiumite:
Can you remind obi that LP has now been settled and he shouldn't have left in the first place.... he should be the one attracting people into his own party not him begging for ticket in another.

Okay, I will. On your part, tell Tinubu that he should not have panicked and tried to destroy the LP just to disenfranchise Obi. He has now succeeded in uniting Obi and Atiku. Obi isn't returning to the LP. That ship has sailed. I suggest we all move on. Thanks.

blackgold2018:
no you re wrong in this one. He already knows Obi is not the major shareholder in ADC. What he is trying to say is as APC had Buhari for a better shot to clinge power. Is same way ADC is having Obi for a better shot to cling power.

It’s Atiku he is directing it to. Tinubu had sense to wait to collect the power from Buhari. This is supposed to be the way Atiku should follow too.

If Atiku steps down for Obi, where will Obi's votes come from? In 2023, Tinubu got 5.6m votes from the North, Atiku got 7m votes from the North, Kwankwaso got 1.4m votes from Kano and even Obi got over 2m votes from the North out of his total tally. Can Obi gain any more ground in the South that can surpass his 2023 numbers? I doubt. Can Atiku gain any more ground in the North in 2027 than can surpass his 2023 numbers? Absolutely. Many Northerners who voted Tinubu in 2023 will no longer do so. That's how you do political permutations. Simply demanding for a ticket does not cut it.

Flangelo12:
What exactly would the opposition use to campaign?

Lol. Snake oil merchants with propaganda. This.

opes:
Tinubu doesn't need to win SE, but the influence and attention there is to stop what happened in 2023 to repeat itself in 2027.
You don't know anything about Oyo politics. Seyi makinde popularity is only in Ibadan city which has 11 local government, the remaining 22 local government are outside Ibadan, talking of Ogbomosho, oke Ogun and Ibarapa. 5 parties collapsed their structures for him in 2019 based on feud with Ajimobi. He contested for senate before, he didn't even win the primary.
APC abandoned their candidate, Teslim, in 2023 to support his re-election, based on the deal they had together. Let him win against Wike and Fayose first, then we can assess him political relevance

Look, you all should organise a meeting and pick one stand. We all jubilated APC having 30 governors and tipped Tinubu to win 30 states as a result of how powerful governors are. E don reach Oyo turn and you are suddenly telling me Makinde cannot deliver his state to ADC. Stop confusing thunder na.

Lithiumite:
You just love wailing and enjoy being a looser all the time..... is it obi that wants to teach tinubu politics? A man defeated more powerful forces in the buhari aso rock cabal,its now obi and atiku he can't handle now that he has gotten the power. If tinubu was a quarter as foolish as you think of him,he wouldn't be where he is today.

These coming election would be with the widest margin in the history of Nigerian elections.....remember, obi still has atiku to contend with for the ticket,let's see how that pans out first......bloody joker!! Election that is already settled, I was only pitying the stupid guy who diest no when and what to say,he has only come out to tell the world he should never be trusted.

I didn't read most of your mumbo-jumbo. Tinubu "defeated" the so-called Aso Rock cabal with the aid of 5.6m Northern votes. How many votes did he get in the South? You can continue to grandstand and build castles in the air but Cubana Chiefpriest already told you barely two months ago that Tinubu cannot secure 10,000 votes in the SE until he releases Nnamdi Kanu. When is Tinubu releasing Kanu?

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/entertainment/naija-fashion/837211-only-nnamdi-kanus-release-can-save-you-in-2027-cubana-chief-priest-tells-tinubu.html

Lithiumite:
When a man talks to much,he wouldn't realise when he starts binding himself up with a rope till he can't move anymore.....you supported Obi even when you were working under the APC govt... the very reason he can't be trusted and this cast a large aspersion on SE politicians claiming to support tinubu.

Are you sure it's only SE politicians? You better continue to maintain the same energy. Don't start having second thoughts. 30 governors will deliver 30 states to Tinubu. We will all learn politics together! Maga must pay and man must wack!