Dear Nairalanders,
I thought to share this information after a long sabbatical from Nairaland as I have been so so busy lately.

As a financial market analyst, I have been part of the investing world that was burnt during the equities market crash of 2008. So many are still being burnt and most recently, Nigerian Equities Investors have lost close to 20% on the average stock between January 2, 2014 and yesterday (November 10, 2014) due to several factors. However, we still cannot shy away from the fact that some investors, as at March to April 2014, have gained at least 40% in this same market.

Today, IPOs are failing, equities issue via private placements are failing and stock market prices are falling to support levels despite companies doing well. Confidence crisis is back, albeit temporarily, at least till after February 14, 2015 Presidential Elections. There may be a momentarily rally before 2015 though.
Even Banks dare not raise Public Offer at the moment. They are resorting to Eurobonds issuance. I tell you, Eurobonds makes a lot of sense for Nigerian Investors. But what is happening? I will share my thoughts.

In as much as there is no need to panic, because the NSE will not crash like the 2008/2009 scenario, the market is not heavily leveraged like before, fundamentals remain slightly firm, but there is a need to diversify your investment portfolio. You got $5 million? Spread it on bonds, fixed deposits, stocks, mutual funds/treasury bills and real estate, my wealth of experience have taught me this. You can't be wrong!

The Central Bank of Nigeria, on the 6th of November, 2014 released a circular titled “Exclusion of Some Transactions from the RDAS Window” The circular directed that the importation of Electronics, Finished Products, Information Technology, Generators, Telecommunication Equipment and Invisible Transactions shall henceforth be funded from the interbank exchange market only.

Given the likely demand/supply mismatch in the NIFEX market, Naira at this market segment and other alternative markets may witness
further depreciation unless the Central Bank intensifies its intervention in this Market segment. This prospect would most likely keep foreign portfolio investors on the sideline until the outlook improves and Naira stabilizes. This is however dependent on the extent of decline in the international crude oil price which has hitherto been a major determinant of the Nigerian economic health.

Events Preceding Eurobonds Issuance by FGN and Corporate Bodies:
Nigeria, rebased GDP in 2013, now largest economy in Africa. Influx of FDIs, FPIs (Power Sector and NSE)
NSE went up and down in 2014. the local banks suffered ‘haircut’ in the assets they sold to AMCON
Falling crude oil price, naira nose-dived against the dollar, boko haram onslaught grew,
Local Capital market was averse to equities offerings, local bond coupons/interests are high, rising bad debts,
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) sold down their share between June and today, naira fell, foreign exchange reserves depleted, 2015 presidential elections looms
Nigeria resorted to raise Eurobonds (Government and Corporates)

When political uncertainty is high, naira devalues and stock prices go low, diversify buy Eurobonds while also taking advantage of buying low-priced blue-chips for the raining day.
When rate volatility is high, buy fixed-income instruments like bonds.

Bond Investment Justifications
• Yield: The return on investment is constant throughout the tenor of the bond.
• Yield: The bond yield is relatively higher than that of average banks' fixed deposit rates.
• The state bonds have comparatively higher effective yields when adjusted for With-Holding-Tax.
• The bonds are acceptable pledging collateral for accessing CBN Expanded Discount Window obligations and loans from financial institutions.
• Bonds will be listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchanges thereby enhancing their liquidity.
• With the YTD returns of the NSE standing negatively tall at (19.586%), a more stable investment instrument like bonds seem to be safe haven at this time of investment volatility.

Below are the advantages of investing in Eurobonds notes:
 Eurobonds are form of insurance against Naira depreciation
 Nigerian Corporate issued Eurobonds earn high returns to investors, almost comparable to local currency fixed income instruments.
 Eurobonds offer investors the benefit of portfolio diversification
 The yield on such bonds improved further in comparison if the local currency devalues.
 It offers stability of returns especially if held till maturity date.
 It offers guaranteed foreign exchange income at period intervals.
 There is a high prospect of capital gains if rates drop below the offer rate.
 Our relatively minimum transaction volume offers retail investors opportunity to invest in Eurobonds
 The bonds give an investor a possibility of achieving a higher yield on investments as compare to investing in equities/shares (YTD Return was (19.586%), as at November 11, 2014), bank and building society accounts, money market placements, etc.
 The risk of depreciation of principal amount is eliminated if held to maturity

Conclusion
I do not foresee any near-term appreciation of the naira against the green back as oil price may remain below $90 per barrel with inter-bank exchange rate already depreciating. If this trend is sustained beyond 2015, then naira could shed more than 6% to a dollar.

Some primary market local bonds are currently available. Some secondary market local and Eurobonds can also be bought through informed market players like moi . They are scare but available. The coupon rate/yield on these bonds ranges between 13% to 16%. Where in the world can you get such fixed-income returns? Only in Nigeria!

Do have a great investing future!!
Ayo

God is the judge, he puts down one and sets up another. No matter how much we accuse or judge, we aint gat that right. If you truly beileve in God and his judgements, then whatsoever any man of God does, leave God to do justice if you know he exist. Or go to a court of law to ask for justice if anyone violates your rights.

Writting on pages of newspapers or on the net won't redress nothing, it brings heaps of fire esp when it has to do with men of God. Even an annoited Samson did wrong and the annoiting never left him. So BACK-OFF, I AM WARNING YOU PEOPLE WHO JUDGE ANNOITED MEN OF GOD

God bless you all.

1 Thess 5-12-13
New International Version (©1984)
Hold them in the highest regard in love because of their work. Live in peace with each other.
New Living Translation (©2007)
Show them great respect and wholehearted love because of their work. And live peacefully with each other.

English Standard Version (©2001)
and to esteem them very highly in love because of their work. Be at peace among yourselves.

New American Standard Bible (©1995)
and that you esteem them very highly in love because of their work. Live in peace with one another.

International Standard Version (©2008)
Hold them in the highest regard, loving them because of their work. Live in peace with each other.

When it comes to the issue of MEN OF GOD, humans are supposed to just keep mute since God says touch not my anointed!!! People just die for no cause and never really know its because of their slanders towards MOG.

Good day all,


You will always find me whenever there is room for money making,


The Nigerian Stock Market (NSE) was the worst performing market in the world as at January 31, 2009; its investors lost N7 trillion in the last 12 months and a cumulative weighted average loss of 21% in the first 4 months of 2009; it was a market devoid of liquidity and confidence (a market with over 200 companies and over 300 listed securities that ranked amongst the top performing markets in the world in 2007 with. Its banking-sub sector drives the market and boasts of 21 quoted banks out of the 24 banks in the country.

Furthermore, most of the oil marketing firms in the country are listed in its daily official listing; it remains the driver of the economy and; raised over N1 trillion capital for end users in 2008 and over N2 trillion issues in 2007. The market commands strong fundamentals with a single-digit market Price-to-earnings ratio; it also remains a market for long term investors and not mere speculators. It is the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). It is now gradually finding its feet; the time looks ripe to start investing in shares/stocks for the future.

Pls clcik here http://www.cowryasset.com/uploads/reports/New%20Opportunities%20in%20the%20Nigerian%20Stock%20Market_1.pdf

Call Ayo NOW on 01-4041391 for investment advice and how he can help you make money or recover your lost wealth

Good day all,

Long time no see! I bring you all good tidings from the capital market. We bless God for the rebound we are witnessing in the market right now. How long long it'll last? Positive on the short-term.

Why the market crashed? Very simple! Policies surrounding the financial market @ large from CBN to , SEC, NSE ET AL.

1. The flurry of Private placements in the primary segment of the Nigerian capital market
2. The allegded ban on margin trading.
3. The percievd Foreign hedge funds managers' exit e.g Actis divested from UACN recently.
4. CBN's seemingly stringent rules on foreign equity ownership or stake in the Nigerian banking system
5. The NSE new rule of 100,000 units required to move a share price.
6. Series of stocks on technical suspension
7. Bank's uniform year end by CBN
8. Increase in the MPR to 10.25% by CBN saw funds divert to the money market
9. SEC's initial dealine of  September for recapitalisation of brokerage firms.
 
I can go on and on,

Despite the recent odds on PPs, there are still good PPs in the market, eg RELTEL and Naturelle Extracts Limited (NEL) PP.

Please find attached NEL PP investment thesis for your perusal.


My email is (aylala2002@yahoo.co.uk) or my reltel +234-1-4041391 for further enquiries especially interested investors, application forms are with me and me alone. I may gurantee you full allotment, but the 2 issuinh house ahve already fully underwrritten the issue incase of any underscription which i strongly doubt,

I PLACE AN OVERWEIGHT BUY ON NEL!!!

hello my people, long time no hear!

For ma people dreaming of Oil stocks, they may take the risk, since high risk could fetch high return. Oando has alredy surpassed my forcast price, Afroil needs to release an interim result to convince me that they should be trading near the n10 mark Japaul Oil is a MUST BUY ALL for long - term investors since those of us who bought the hybrid offer will surely sell once they credit our CSCS which should take the theorectial ex-right price lowwer than what it is tarding at currently. Eterna Oil is a HOLD (speculative). the persistent surge in oil prices globally may be responsible for these price rally in the Oil sector, notting more.

For 2008 the Nigerian Equities Market Will Sustain Upward Trajectory: Owing to the current bullish sentiments prevailing on the NSE, we expect the market to maintain an upward trajectory in the coming 6 months, spurred on by strong corporate earnings. The Central Bank Governor recently stated his intentions to set limits on foreign equity holdings in Nigerian banks. It remains to be seen whether this development will temper interest in the banking sector going forward. For the 1st half of the year, we foresee a growth in excess of 25% for the Nigerian Equities Market owing to an anticipated growth in the GDP by 8%. Funds from banks’ excess shareholders’ funds, over N80 billion released insurance funds, N250 billion returned monies from FBN oversubscribed hybrid offer, pension funds and inflow of foreign hedge funds should drive market indices to new highs in 2008.


Please find attached my recommended stocks for the first - half year of 2008. By God's Grace, we shall all make clean sweatless money this year!

My caveat still stands. BUYERs BEWARE!!!

Good day all,

Concerning POs, I think I would prefer to take the advantage of all the good POs in the market (esp Zenith and PHB no more). By mid- month to year end, we might start taking position on the secondary market, the market outlook will definitely determine where to put ma maney. people who rule out POs may be market speculators. With share certificates on the verge of fazing out, I tell you POs will gain more ground, although the recent issue of returning monies is already diverting people's attention away from POs.

I wont buy First bank on the floor right about now. Share certificates may come in as from january (usually 2 weeks after allotment, but factor in the naija issue). My other broda, please go for Crusader, Soveriegns, Custodian, Cornerstone (recently recieved N4bn escrow proceeds) , Lasaco,

thank you

Babs, its only logical to avoid a dollar denominated security when the dollar is currently nose-diving as convertibility (into the local shares) may short-change you. Also remember that we only have a reference price for now, the closure bid price will eventually determine if the GDR is a worthwhile investment. you may be lucky on the long run. As for me, count me out!

SEC needs to work on fixing the prices of GDRs just like all other modes of share offering. That will give us room to project its price movements post listing, Abi? Someone pls bail me out,

HI PEOPLE!

Today's Market Market Summary
The bears besieged the Nigerian Equities Market today with the ASI closing lower by 12 basis points to stand at 54,222.60 points from 54,285.22 points in the last trading session while the Market Capitalisation also closed lower by 0.12% to stand at N9.00 trillion from N9.01 trillion in the previous trading session. Today’s top 5 trades were recorded in the banking and insurance sub-sectors with two banking stocks and three insurance stocks on the list. Intenegins continued its impressive run on the activity chart as the most active stock with a traded volume of about 76 million units of shares worth N151 million exchanged hands in 783 transactions. Market hear-say has it that the stock may go on a FULL technical suspension anytime soon due to a share reconstruction exercise. The shares outstanding (which currently stand at 16.5 billion) is the highest in the industry and the second highest in the entire market, just behind Ecobank with shares outstanding in excess of 21 billion. The insurance stock opened today’s session at a price of N2.04 from the previous closing price of N1.96, the opening price of N2.04 could not be sustained as it later dropped to finally close the trading session at N1.97 gaining a paltry N0.01 in the process. Other stocks on the top 5 trades were Access, NEM, Firstinland and Equityasur. Please find attached today’s full pricelist.


INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Asian Stocks Decline for First Time in Four Days as Rio Slips Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days on renewed concern that economic growth is slowing in the U.S., the region's largest export market. Rio Tinto Group and Nippon Mining Holdings Inc., Japan's largest copper producer, slipped after a report showed U.S. manufacturing expanded in November at the slowest pace in 10 months, raising speculation that raw-materials demand will wane. JFE Holdings Inc. led declines by steelmakers. ``It's difficult to be bullish at the moment with the U.S. economy looking more like it's headed for a recession than a slowdown,'' said Toshio Konishi, who helps oversee $4.3 billion at Polar Capital Partners in Tokyo. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3 percent to 161.84 as of 3:18 p.m. in Tokyo, snapping a three-day, 3.6 percent rally. A measure of raw-materials producers had the second biggest drop among the benchmark's 10 industry groups. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 1 percent. About half of Asia's key stock indexes fell. China's CSI 300 Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed as Ping An Insurance (Group) Co., which trades in both markets, won regulatory approval to invest more funds abroad. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has dropped 6.1 percent from its Nov. 1 record amid speculation rising losses tied to investments in U.S. subprime mortgages will slow growth in the world's largest economy. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said yesterday financial conditions and consumer spending deteriorated more than she expected.

have a nice day!

Ma people, i think we should learn from the GTBank GDR on the London Stock Exchange, with an unlisted GDR convertibility may be difficult, when listed, European stock pricing may be very conservative and with the weakening dollar against other currencies in the world, i wont suggest a buy on all GDRs for now, for FCMB, I think it would have been impressed if you went for the PO rather than on the floor, my fair value for FCMb come 2008 April is N25.00. After lifting the TS, FCMB will should rally marginally and then dip at N20.00 or before, barring all unforseen circumstances.

Investors who bought 10,000 units and below of FBN PO will be given full allotment. The while 75% in excess of the oversubscribed portion would the alloted as a supplementary allotment. For the rights offer, investors who applied for 16,000 units and below got full allotment. People borrowing money to invest should stick to POs which they are sure would give a 100% allotment, I warned people about excessive investment in Dangote Flour because of the low free float, they should expect much monies to be returned.

Please do not sell your Zenith, find mre money, pick up your rights and also buy more from the POs. You'll soon call back to thank me for this. Remember, Zenith has the highest banking rating in NIGERIA from fitch Rating Agency, an International Agency. AA rating no be yam o!!!


Regards.

Good day all,

To keep u posted on market updates on a weekly basis, i put up the brief below, it also includes stocks you may wish to invest in during the last quarter of 2007.

Last week, the CBN on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria gave a Tender Notice on the Nigerian Treasury Bills of 91, 182 and 364-day tenors amounting to N5 Million N35 Million, N25 Million respectively which would be issued by Dutch auction on Thursday, 06/12/2007.This may further tighten the liquidity situation in the economy as the CBN makes conscious effort to control inflation and also strengthen the naira vis-à-vis other currency of the world.  Two equity prices were adjusted for dividend as recommended by the Board of Directors. Chellarams Plc was adjusted for dividend of N0.15 per share. Guaranty Trust Bank Plc was adjusted for an interim dividend of N0.25 per share.
…Supplementary Listing
A total of 549,452,531 shares were added to the shares outstanding in the name of Intercontinental Bank Plc following supplementary allotment from the recently concluded share offerings made up of 537,281,740 shares from public offer and 12,170,791 from rights issue.

Technical Suspension
The technical suspension on International Breweries Plc and Japaul Oil & Maritime Services Plc was lifted on Monday November 26, 2007.Also, the technical suspension on the price of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated was lifted on Wednesday, November 28, 2007.

Change of Name: The name of Wapic Insurance Plc has been changed to Intercontinental Wapic Insurance Plc on the recommendation of the Board of Directors to reflect the current ownership structure. The change of name was ratified by the shareholders at the Annual General Meeting on Wednesday, August 8, 2007.
Nigerian International Debt Fund: Notice of 21st Coupon payment. The Fund Managers are recommending a coupon of N221.03 or $1.87 per Note. The date of closure of register of Note Holders is 8th December 2007 while payment date is 21st December 2007.

On the European scene; UK. stocks erased gains. Kazakhmys Plc, Kazakhstan's largest copper producer, and British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc paced the drop. The benchmark FTSE 100 Index retreated 3, or less than 0.1, to 6,346.1 at 8:30 a.m. in London, having earlier risen as much as 0.8 percent. The FTSE All-Share Index fell 0.2 percent to 3,235.52. Ireland's ISEQ Index retreated 0.1 percent to 6,949.73. Kazakhmys lost 53 pence, or 3.9 percent, to 1,295. BSkyB, the UK.'s biggest pay-television provider, fell 16.5 pence, or 2.6 percent, to 618.

I therefore urge investors with a medium to long-term* horizon to seek investment opportunities in the following stocks with good growth prospects over the medium to long term yield. Medium Term refers to an investment horizon of between 6 months and 1 year, while Long-Term spans over a year.
Recommended Stocks
Security Entry Price Projected
Price Mkt. Price Earnings’ Yield % EPS PE Ratio Year End
Niger Insurance 4.00 5.50 4.37 3.89 0.17 25.71 December
Lasaco 3.10 5.40 3.29 3.65 0.12 27.42 December
Lawunion 4.00 5.50 4.15 2.65 0.11 37.73 December
Unic 3.00 4.21 3.20 4.69 0.15 21.33 December
Sovereign Insurance* 2.90 4.45 3.09 3.24 0.10 30.90 December
Access 20.50 26.00 20.51 4.24 0.87 23.57 March
Guaranty 30.25 40.00 30.25 4.36 1.32 22.92 April
FCMB 17.45 28.00 17.45 3.55 0.62 28.15 April
Dangsugar 35.00 45.00 35.21 4.74 1.67 21.08 December

*Sovereign Insurance may soon hit the capital market soon for a public issue
Aiico is on a suspension, but you may also it by January, Crusader - the best insurance stock right now, but get in at N5.00 or below.

Once again; my caveat stands!

The information on this thread has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. AYLALA takes no responsibility for investment decisions made by any nairaland user as this piece is just a mere invitation to threat, hence i will not be liable for any loss in asset based on my opinion. However, you can trust ma judgement. Thank you.

But really, are we all interested in POs or buying on the floor?

Mypeace,one luv! Well Bro wanj0, the investors should use their descretion to judge wether an IPO will suite their portfolio and investment motives. Various classes of investors with various risk elements and approach, with a sound PO, your capital is guarnteed if not about 70% returns. So bro, why don't you try Zenith IPO and your finances will never remain the same agin. Think about Fitch AA rating for Zenith,   

Like my other thread, this thread will, by God's grace usher you into wealth come in 2008. I say AMEN!

The Nigerian Stock Exchange [NSE] trading activities have consistently in recent times been dominated by the Nigerian banks stocks. This trend could be partly attributed to the Central Bank of Nigeria directive which required all universal banks operating in the country to increase their capital to a minimum of N25 Billion Naira with effect from January 2006.  In pursuance of the attainment of the policy objective, a number of the banks resorted to the capital market to raise additional capital. Also, with our burgeoning foreign reserves in excess of US$48 billion up for management, banks have sought to shore up their capital base to N100 billion in line with CBN requirements.

Within the period of July 2004 when the policy was enunciated and August 2007, about three years, not less than ten banks have gone to the market to raise additional capital. In fact about six of the banks have either gone to the market twice within that period, or are preparing to return to the market for the second time; while one bank has in fact obtained regulatory approvals to go to the market for the third time within that period. In most of the outings, the banks have reported successful outings evidenced by the large over-subscriptions. As I type this, Zenith is bracing up for about N130 billion expected to be raised next month, bank PHB is on for about N80 billion IPO 9infact the shareholders approved N200 billion IPO – they’re aware of the 33% discount it offers), FCMB just closed, Fidelity is rounding-off, Afri Bank is receiving various boost for its N100 billion offer, Japaul Oil may have been 200% oversubscribed, Access, we heard, is also over subscribed, Dangote Flour IPO was also a success, Oceanic and UBA were also oversubscribed, First Bank was 400% over subscribed (raised N5000 billion but absorbed N250 billion as applications above 10,000 units were turned down), I can go on and on…

The reported successful outings of most of the offers could be attributed to the intense publicity campaign mounted by the banks on the expected gains derivable by the investing public; which also no doubt helped in boosting the awareness and participation of the public in the various offers. The campaigns among other things emphasized the derivable capital appreciation, dividends history of the offering banks, and other mouth watering attractive returns on the investments.

An E.D during the investors’ forum of the Fidelity offer revealed that 4 weeks after allotment, the CSCS will be credited with the shares from its PO – remember, Fidelity sticks to their word. Also note that buying public offer during a period of endless POs is profitable as the secondary arm may witness a downturn during that period. We are expecting Firstinland, Costain WA, Aiico, Wema, Zenith, Diamond GDR is on, and we’re also expecting Union Bank, Skye spring, Unity Bank, Standard Alliance, Staco, Mutual Benefit, the list is inexhaustive.

In order to improve the awareness of investors in bank shares, we highlight some important factors to consider from regulatory perspectives and observed trends before going ahead with their investment decisions:
1. On the average it takes a minimum of a period of about one year for a successful offer to be placed in the market and the shares to be issued to allotted investors. And even after the allotment the dispatch of the share certificates by the respective registrars of the banks could take a minimum of additional six months. With your CSCS Account, maybe within six months since CBN has stopped verifying the proceeds.

2. Prospective investors should not expect to start realizing the benefits of capital gains from the shares through disposal in the secondary market even if you have with you your share certificates.  This is because you have to submit the share certificate to your stockbroker, who will have to submit same together with your authorized transfer form to the bank registrar for signature verification. This process could take a minimum of three to eight weeks depending on the efficiency level of the registrar and other factors which may not be disclosed to you.

3. With enforced rules from SEC and CBN, dividend approved by the Central Bank of Nigeria [CBN] for payment may also be forthcoming as soon as declared. However, enabling laws governing publication of bank annual reports require that every bank publishes its annual account not later than four months after the end of the financial year to which the accounts apply; and after obtaining the approval of Central Bank. While banks would strive to attain the publication deadline, the dispatch of the dividend warrant could take another two to three months after publication of the accounts.

4. I reiterate that If you have a Central Securities Clearing System [CSCS] account, the delays outlined above could be minimized.

5. Prospective speculative investors who aspire to reap the benefits of capital appreciation through early disposal of their share holdings will be well advised to buy from the secondary market. The price at the secondary market which will be higher than the price of issue on offer is the price at which the concerned bank is placed on “technical suspension”. During the technical suspension period, the secondary market price will remain unchanged pending the conclusion of the new issue. Notwithstanding, having considered the atmosphere in the capital market right now, I STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT INVESTORS GO FORCELY FOR POs and PRIVATE PLACEMENTs., more of POs due to the market awareness and regulations.


My subsequent postings will X-ray value stocks that will blow your mind in 2008. Watch Out!

THANK YOU.

Like my other thread, this thread will, by God's grace usher you into wealth come in 2008. I say AMEN!

The Nigerian Stock Exchange [NSE] trading activities have consistently in recent times been dominated by the Nigerian banks stocks. This trend could be partly attributed to the Central Bank of Nigeria directive which required all universal banks operating in the country to increase their capital to a minimum of N25 Billion Naira with effect from January 2006. In pursuance of the attainment of the policy objective, a number of the banks resorted to the capital market to raise additional capital. Also, with our burgeoning foreign reserves in excess of US$48 billion up for management, banks have sought to shore up their capital base to N100 billion in line with CBN requirements.

Within the period of July 2004 when the policy was enunciated and August 2007, about three years, not less than ten banks have gone to the market to raise additional capital. In fact about six of the banks have either gone to the market twice within that period, or are preparing to return to the market for the second time; while one bank has in fact obtained regulatory approvals to go to the market for the third time within that period. In most of the outings, the banks have reported successful outings evidenced by the large over-subscriptions. As I type this, Zenith is bracing up for about N130 billion expected to be raised next month, bank PHB is on for about N80 billion IPO 9infact the shareholders approved N200 billion IPO – they’re aware of the 33% discount it offers), FCMB just closed, Fidelity is rounding-off, Afri Bank is receiving various boost for its N100 billion offer, Japaul Oil may have been 200% oversubscribed, Access, we heard, is also over subscribed, Dangote Flour IPO was also a success, Oceanic and UBA were also oversubscribed, First Bank was 400% over subscribed (raised N5000 billion but absorbed N250 billion as applications above 10,000 units were turned down), I can go on and on…

The reported successful outings of most of the offers could be attributed to the intense publicity campaign mounted by the banks on the expected gains derivable by the investing public; which also no doubt helped in boosting the awareness and participation of the public in the various offers. The campaigns among other things emphasized the derivable capital appreciation, dividends history of the offering banks, and other mouth watering attractive returns on the investments.

An E.D during the investors’ forum of the Fidelity offer revealed that 4 weeks after allotment, the CSCS will be credited with the shares from its PO – remember, Fidelity sticks to their word. Also note that buying public offer during a period of endless POs is profitable as the secondary arm may witness a downturn during that period. We are expecting Firstinland, Costain WA, Aiico, Wema, Zenith, Diamond GDR is on, and we’re also expecting Union Bank, Skye spring, Unity Bank, Standard Alliance, Staco, Mutual Benefit, the list is inexhaustive.

In order to improve the awareness of investors in bank shares, we highlight some important factors to consider from regulatory perspectives and observed trends before going ahead with their investment decisions:
1. On the average it takes a minimum of a period of about one year for a successful offer to be placed in the market and the shares to be issued to allotted investors. And even after the allotment the dispatch of the share certificates by the respective registrars of the banks could take a minimum of additional six months. With your CSCS Account, maybe within six months since CBN has stopped verifying the proceeds.

2. Prospective investors should not expect to start realizing the benefits of capital gains from the shares through disposal in the secondary market even if you have with you your share certificates. This is because you have to submit the share certificate to your stockbroker, who will have to submit same together with your authorized transfer form to the bank registrar for signature verification. This process could take a minimum of three to eight weeks depending on the efficiency level of the registrar and other factors which may not be disclosed to you.

3. With enforced rules from SEC and CBN, dividend approved by the Central Bank of Nigeria [CBN] for payment may also be forthcoming as soon as declared. However, enabling laws governing publication of bank annual reports require that every bank publishes its annual account not later than four months after the end of the financial year to which the accounts apply; and after obtaining the approval of Central Bank. While banks would strive to attain the publication deadline, the dispatch of the dividend warrant could take another two to three months after publication of the accounts.

4. I reiterate that If you have a Central Securities Clearing System [CSCS] account, the delays outlined above could be minimized.

5. Prospective speculative investors who aspire to reap the benefits of capital appreciation through early disposal of their share holdings will be well advised to buy from the secondary market. The price at the secondary market which will be higher than the price of issue on offer is the price at which the concerned bank is placed on “technical suspension”. During the technical suspension period, the secondary market price will remain unchanged pending the conclusion of the new issue. Notwithstanding, having considered the atmosphere in the capital market right now, I STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT INVESTORS GO FORCELY FOR POs and PRIVATE PLACEMENTs., more of POs due to the market awareness and regulations.


My subsequent postings will X-ray value stocks that will blow your mind in 2008. Watch Out!

THANK YOU.

Good day all, longest time no see!!!

I believe most, if not all of us have amassed a bit of wealth in the year 2007. The market went up and later exprienced a bit of lull in the third quarter of the year due to profit-taking and portfolio realignment of big time fund managers. As the year draws the curtains, I believe the index should close high within the 55,000 points range form 33,000 last year (up by about 60%). Other windows of opportunities abound in some public offers currently on like Bank PHB, Afribank (gat reservations about its high forcast PER for 2008 which is about 30 times its 2008 earnings @ offer price!), will ok Afribank for investors with a two year horozon, Zenith will also be a killer as returned funds from 1st bank's offer goes straight to Zenith. Below is s brief report on offers and placements you shouldnt miss this year;


1. DIAMOND BANK PLC
Diamond Bank Plc: Offer for subscription (only within the Federal Republic of Nigeria but listed on the London Stock Exchange) US$ 400,000,000 Offering of Global Depository Receipts (GDRs) on the basis of 1GDR per 100 Diamond Bank shares. At a Reference price Per GDR of US$13.75 (Nigerian Investors can access the Foreign Exchange through the official window in order to subscribe to the offer). The offer price per GDR to be determined on Tuesday, 04 December 2007 may close below or above the reference price.

Application List Opens: Tuesday, 20th November, 2007

Application List Closes: Tuesday, 4th December, 2007

Minimum Applications of 50 GDRs & Multiples of 50 GDRs & Multiples of 50 GDRs thereafter.
Offer Hotlines are 08020567536, 08073359587, and 07039568204.
It may interest investors that should the final offer price closes below the reference price of US$13.75 per GDR, the value of the local shares may subsequently nose-dive (GTB shareholders may testify to this). The reference price of US$13.75 per GDR translates to N16.29 per local Diamond share. The price of Diamond Bank currently trades at N18.50 (as at 27th Novemebr, 2007)
BULL POINT
Increased capital base should increase earnings and ultimately improve bottom lines.
BEAR POINT
Weakening dollar against the naira may increase exchange rate risk.


2. MAGNUS CONSULTING LIMITED

Application List Opens: Tuesday, 20th November, 2007

Application List Closes: Tuesday, 4th December, 2007

10.  Method of offering: Offer for Subscription by Private Placement
11.  Units of Sale A minimum of 500,000 units and multiples of 10,000 thereafter
12.  Offer Price N1.95 kobo per share
13.  Payment In full on application

Financial Summary
For The Year Ended June 30
DESCRIPTION Audited
2,005 Audited
2,006 Un-Audited
2,007
Business  Consulting 8,004,334 21,153,000 22,568,223
Business Technology 609,500 1,130,000 1,539,500
Business training 228,000 834,960 470,500
Other Income 3,801,909 747,000 284,193
TOTAL  REVENUE 12,643,743 23,864,960 24,862,416
Net Profit / (Loss) (4,187,969) 3,908,062 2,504,305
Dividend Payable (500,0000) (500,000)
Transfer to Reserve 2,074,515 2,004,305
Share Capital 100,000 500,000 500,000
Shareholders funds 26,927,810 47,961,807 50,021,800
EPS - 390k 250k
Dividend Per Share - 50k 50k

Forecast Offer Statistics (Extract from the Reporting Accountants Report): 2008 2009 2010 2011
Revenue 386,530,000 537,479,000 723,128,200 987,867,035
Profit Before Tax 219,142,100 342,193,830 495,399,434 721,290,866
Profit After Tax 149,016,628 232,691,804 336,871,615 490,477,789
Dividends 59,606,651 93,076,722 168,435,808 245,238,894
Earnings Per Share 51 kobo 80 kobo 116 kobo 169 kobo
Dividend per share 21 kobo 32 kobo 58 kobo 85 kobo
P/E Ratio 3.79 2.43 1.68 1.15
Dividend yield at offer price 11% 16% 30% 43%

BULL POINT:
• Projected Price expected to hit N3.04 with the 12 month quotation period. The offer price represents 156% discount to the expected market price after listing. Placement Memorandum can be obtained by clicking here http://www.magnusconsulting-ng.com/PrivatePlacement.htm
• High quality Management and Board
• Should rank as the first company to gain quotation status in its industry.

BEAR POINT: Overdrafts amounting to N5 million but fully secured. 



3. MTN
Offer summary available in the attached document
Offer Opens:  December 7, 2007

BULL POINTS: Africa’s and Middle East’s largest telecoms giant and unarguably the most profitable
telecommunications Company in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Minimum requirement has been reduced from US$ 5 million to US$100 K via the Scheme
BEAR POINT: Listing date is unknown
NOTE:  The minimum investment of $5 million for individual clients is obtainable if 50 clients gather US$100,000.00 each.


4. NIGERIAN BAG MANUAFACTURING COMPANY PLC (BAGCO)
IPO of 1,865,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each @ N3.90 per share.
Opened:  November 7, 2007.
Closes:   December 14, 2007. 
The company is seeking to raise N7 billion through an IPO of 1,865,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at N3.90 per share. The company presently is a wholly owned subsidiary of Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc.
BULL POINTS: On the financial health of the company, turnover has risen to N11.00 billion in 2007, from N9.9 billion in 2006 and N6.29 billion in 2005. The company is projecting a turnover of N12.45 billion in 2008, N15.45 billion in 2009 and N17.15 billion in 2010. Also, dividend payout for 2008 is pegged at N0.26 billion, N1.07 billion in 2009 and N1.12 billion for 2010.
The company is said to be the largest woven polypropylene sack manufacturing company in Africa and the largest single plant in the world, with installed capacity of 200 million sacks per annum.
The minimum units that can be bought by an investor is 1000shares and in multiples of 100 thereafter.
BEAR POINT: Overdrafts amounting to N8.9 billion with the offer expected to raise N7.3 billion


Watch out for an overview on Stocks that could make you rich in 2008!

God bless you all!!!

Halo ma people,

The ever lukewarm market has propelled me to seek solace in the village for a while to avoid sighting ma stock portfolio in a consistently red zone. But since business has to go on I am temporarily back, The upward review of the MPR to 9% (up by 100 basis points) from 8%may further dampen the bear run on the floor of the NSE as interest rate (cost of funds) will surge in the money market making money market instruments much more profitable.

BREIF MARKET OVERVIEW
The Nigerian Equities Market witnessed another upside, albeit on marginal grounds, as the All-Share Index closed higher (by 57 basis points) at 50,885.16 from a previous figure of 50,595.95. The Market Capitalisation, in like manner, closed higher by 0.57% at N8.16 trillion from the previous N8.11 trillion. Today’s top 5 trades emerged from the banking, insurance, agriculture and conglomerate sub-sectors with 2 banking stocks on the list. A surprising stock on the top of the activity chart today is Livestock with a traded volume of about 88 million units of shares worth N263 million exchanged hands in 97 deals. The agriculture stock opened today’s trade @ N3.00 from a previous price of N3.00 per share while trading within the price range of N3.14 (today’s high) and N2.98 (today’s low) before finally closing today’s trade @ N3.00 as it recorded no change in its value compared to the previous day’s price. Livestock Feeds Plc may be set to take on Nigerian agricultural world firmly with its recent repositioning strategies. Incorporated and listed on 20th March, 1963 and December 1978 respectively, the agric company came from a loss position of N238.17 million in March 2005 to an after tax profit of N748.42 in its audited accounts for 31st March 2006 yielding a trailing EPS of 1.32 (the highest in the industry) with an issued ordinary shares outstanding of 567 million units. Its nature of business ranges from manufacture and sales of animal feeds and concentrates with its head office located in Ikeja Lagos. An impressive full year result for March 2007 is long over due; the release of this result coupled with a dividend or bonus declaration by the directors may see the stock rise to new highs. The last dividend (N0.30) was paid in 2001.

Bull Points of Livestock Feeds:

· Excellent 2006 result with an after tax profit in excess of N748 million

· Very high EPS of N1.32 – highest in the industry

· Low share price (low PER) when compared to its peers.

· Rights Issue of 2006 which recently received SEC’s approval was 228% subscribed an indication of investors’ confidence in the agriculture stock.

Other stocks on today's top 5 trades were Transcorp, Intenegins, Intercontinental and Skye. Three stocks recorded their all-time high today, all in the banking sub-sector, they are; Access bank (N19.86), IBTC (N12.98) and Skye bank (N14.75).



On the foreign scene … U.S. stocks seen opening up; eyes on earnings, data: (Reuters) - U.S. stocks looked set to open a shade higher, reversing the previous session's losses, with investors on edge ahead of the week's key economic data release; the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. The Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut in key interest rates in mid-September is widely seen by equity strategists as one of the main factors behind the stock market rally seen in the past three weeks. Economic data will be keenly watched for signals of any further monetary policy easing.

TECHNICAL SUSPENSION

Access Bank Plc: The technical suspension placed on shares of Access Bank Plc was lifted today following the completion of its public offering of 4.7 billion shares @ N14.90 per share. The price subsequently jumped by 4.97% to N19.86 from N18.92 gaining N0.94.

HAV A LUVLY DAY!

Good day people, feelers from the trading floor suggests that the bears are still on the rampage. Imagine Zenith dropping 4.99% to N42.50 today As blue chips stock dips, the otherwise 3rd tier banking stocks like Firstinland rose to its year high today (N11.52). @ Stevie please take your profit on Firstinland (if you have) and ZAP. I think their current earnings might not sustain the current price. It is currently trading at 60 times its 2007 earnings!!! Guess the impending PO is responsible for the price surge. I guess the Full year result for June 2007 may be out-of-dis-world coupled with div. payment, otherwise investors may dump the shares on the short run. The company will not want to raise a PO @ any price below N10.00

@ n.oxide, Zenith with a forward EPS of 2.90 by June 2008 and a forward PER of 22.9X, take my word, Zenith should be back to N66.00 in the next twelve months . My people, i think this is a season to BUY companies coming to the market (for LONG -TERM INVESTORS) @ least your portfolio will be insulated against price crash -- which I see extending to december - - due to a technical suspension.

MARKET BREIF
Today’s top 5 trades emerged from the banking and food/beverage/tobacco sub-sectors, with 4 banking stocks on the list. Firstinland topped the activity chart with a traded volume of about 83 million units of shares worth a N923 million exchanged hands in 462 deals The banking stock opened today’s trade @ N11.10 from a previous price of N10.98 while trading between the price range of N11.52 (today’s high) and N10.62 (today’s low) before inching up to close the session @ N11.52 as it gained 54 kobo or 4.92% in its outing today. Other stocks on the top 5 trades were Sterling, Skye, Wema and Dangsugar. Our stock analysis for today focuses on Skyebank, one of the most active stocks for the day. Skye Bank came into being on January 01, 2006 however the Skye Bank story began a long time before then. The proper beginning of the story lies in 1953 with the birth of Co-operative Bank, the oldest of the 5 legacy banks which came together to each add its unique flavour to the Skye Bank blend. This blending of the banks was prompted by events leading from July 06, 2004 the day the Central Bank of Nigeria announced a N25 billion minimum capitalisation requirement for Nigerian banks with effect from December 31, 2005. The bank ranks among the top 10 bank in Nigeria (by assets) and currently has over 200 branches across the country with a balance sheet of approximately N235.96 billion. The management has unveiled a strategic plan to increase its capital base by $500 million (63.5 billion) to position the bank for competitive advantage in the market. The bank in a statement, said it has implemented a focused strategic plan which will see the bank become one of Nigeria top five banks in five years as measured by size, deposit base, profitability and other relevant indices. Already, the bank has secured $100 million (N12.5 billion) from investors in Europe and the United States as a first step in that direction. The deal, which involved an innovative hybrid debt instrument, was structured by Standard Bank of London and Constant Capital Partners (formerly Rembrand Advisory Services, Limited). The 1st phase of the ongoing N2bn shelter fund is also set to close today. Its latest financials (9 months unaudited results for June ‘06) revealed that after tax profits firmed by 274.17% from a previous N868.60m in 2006 to N3.25bn in the current period, a full year figure of N4.33bn is not beyond its reach yielding a forward EPS of 0.60, a current PER of 29X indicates that Skye could be given a fair value of N17.00 by full year.

Good day ma people!!!!!!!!!!! Please can sumbody tell me how long this market downturn may last, FBN hybrid offer did the initial damage, Access offer may also not be unconnected to the current raging of the bears. I see a further dip as companies like FCMB, Fidelity, Skye, Bank PHB, Sterling, firstinland, Wema, Afribank, Dangote flour mill, Starcomms, ETI, GNI, Japaul, diamond and even Nahco (just to mention a few) are all joining the long queue of coys jostling for funds in the primary market. The market capitalisation may further dip by a conservative N600 billion on the short run depending on how soon these companies float their issues while barring all imminient listings from the recent public issues. Amidst these price crashes, I think people should break banks (if need be) to buy GTBank - dropped below N30.00 mark today - as the price may begin its jolly ride up  , & once it starts, N44.00 will be the bus-stop as we await the interim dividend soonest. UBA may soon be a scarce commodity even Dangote same goes for Evans and my darling MBenefit. As for Transcorp, i see its arrows pointing downwards nce the techincal suspension is lifted, maybe N3.50 may be the stop gap point They need to show us how they have performed, the IPO was 36.2% subscribed not to talk of its gearing status! 


MARKET UPDATE
The bears continue to hold sway at the equities market for the 9th consecutive trading day as the All-Share Index further dipped (returning to the 40,000 mark barely 3 weeks after celebrating the historic 50,000 mark attained by the index) as it closed lower by 0.74% from the previous figure of 50,132.55 to 49,761.97 today. The Market Capitalisation also closed lower by 74 basis points from N7.86 trillion in the previous outing to close at N7.80 trillion today.  Today’s top 5 trades emerged from the banking and insurance sub-sectors, with 4 banking stocks on the list. Firstinland topped the activity chart with a traded volume of about 37 million units of shares worth a N402 million exchanged hands in 365 deals The banking stock opened today’s trade @ N10.41 from a previous price N10.41 while trading between the price range of N11.00 (today’s high) and N10.30 (today’s low) before closing @ N10.98 as it gained 0.19 kobo or 1.76% in the process. Other stocks on the top 5 trades were Oasis, Sterling, Access and IBTC.  Stock analysis for today focuses on Access, the 4th most active stock for the day. As the bank’s public offer sets for closure tomorrow. Investors have continued to mop up the stock on the floor of the exchange even as it continues to receive heavy patronage in the primary market, an oversubscription is highly envisaged as its initial public offer was 133% subscribed which saw the bank raise funds in excess of N14 billion. In its offer document, Access has forecasted a PAT of N13.2 billion and an EPS of 1.12 by March 2008 based on about 12 billion shares expected to be issued in an event of a 100% subscription. Dividend yield @ offer price of N14.90 is expected to rise to 9% by 2010 from 4% in 2008; forward PER 13.30X @ offer price, but its current PER of 22 times suggests that Access is currently a N25.00 stock with a potential price target of N29.00 by March 2008. Based on the specifics, I convieniently recommend Access as a GOOD BUY for investors who seek to maximize their returns on the medium to long term yield.   

Regards

helo people, my dear Mr aniefiok, your profession seems 2 me interesting, but educate the house more on the offline trading, still looks like puzzle to me in particular, sure you know we are still trying to build an effective online trading system in Nigeria. With the off-line stuff, are you taking us backward, somebody pls correct me if i am talkin trash here.

From the trading floor, there seems to be a further depression judging by the slash in the prices of some highly capitalised stocks. The index figure may have closed flat but the market cap closed lower going by the data obtained from NSE. Today’s top 5 trades emerged from the banking and mortgage sub-sectors, with 4 banking stocks on the list. FCMB topped the activity chart with a traded volume of about 62 million units of shares worth a whooping N1.12 billion exchanged hands in 356 deals The banking stock opened today’s trade @ N17.32 to close @ N18.10, the trading pattern ranged between N18.14 and N16.82 representing today’s high and low respectively as the share value firmed by 4.50% or N0.78 in absolute value. Other stocks on the top 5 trades were Wema, Sterling, Firstinland and UNHomes. Our stock for today focuses on FCMB, the most active stock for the day. First City Monument Bank (FCMB) and HSBC of France recently signed a private placement structured debt deal for US$100 million. As one of Nigeria’s leading universal banks supplying investment, corporate and consumer services, FCMB plans to use this facility to contribute towards project financing in the real estate and energy sectors, as well as to focus on the expansion of consumer lending. With FCMB’s recent focus on retail finance, a new growth trajectory has been created, making it one of the fastest growing banks in Nigeria in terms of assets, deposits, profitability and customer acquisition. The recent stampede for the bank’s shares on the floor of the NSE may not be unconnected with the public speculation that the bank could declare mouthwatering dividend or bonus issue and also bearing in mind that FCMB is set to visit the market as shareholders have given the nod for the board to raise more funds apart from the N10 billion direct foreign equity investment into FCMB by a U.K. based equity fund. The third quarter result for the period ended January 2007 shows the bank recorded a profit before tax (PBT) of N4.47-billion for the current financial year. This represents a 112 percent increase over profit before tax (PBT) figure of N2.11 billion recorded in the corresponding period. FCMB could be given a fair valuation of N24.00 on the long term with a projected EPS of N0.68 based on a forecasted PAT of N6.8 billion in April 2008 and a forward PER of 26.62.

Someone pls fault my valuation if i am wrong

Yeah Wanaj0, y'right, nice one. But I think most of the quoted insurance companies should meet-up with the recapitalization requirement. The quack ones are some of the once not quoted. Guess some coys are quoted cos they've gat some stuffs to hide,

Helo ma people!!!!!!!!!! Easimoni, u are da bum, a rare gem, I hope you are making money in despite the bearish atmosphere in our nascent market. Someone please tell me how long this market tumble will last 

The persistent dip in market indicators in recent times has constrained me to send this report to the all stakeholders of the Nigerian Capital Market. Kindly take some time to x-ray salient messages in the report. The index touched its 8 week-low @ 50,437.74 yesterday , a RED SIGNAL to investors, an indication of a bearish market. Analysis has revealed that most bank prices are overvalued, resulting in recent market correction. Permit me to say once again that expect funds from wherever, maybe the insurance funds tied down in the CBN escrow account or foreign hedge fund (A fund, usually used by wealthy individuals and institutions, which is allowed to use aggressive strategies that are unavailable to Mutual Fund) managers and even our highly capitalized banks move into the market ferociously, there may be a further depression in the market, hence I see no appreciable returns on investment in the secondary arm of the market within the last quarter of the year. My calculation revealed that about 7 public issues may hit the market between now and December 2007, about N500 billion is expected to be raised by these companies, the lion share of this should come through profit-taking by investors triggered by a sell-off on some stocks that have returned more than a 100%. A strategy that might work in this kind of market may be calculated speculation if there is anything like that, what market operators does is buy, for example Berger paints @ N7.00, sell @ N9.00, no brokers’ commission, total charges on buy & sell will be ~ 4%, the capital gain about 29%, net profit 25%, not too bad for a 2 weeks investment. You can even do a 15% speculative trading every week giving 60% returns in a month. Apart from this investment strategy three other options are:
1. BUY public offers and wait for certificates, @ least a 100% may be guaranteed.
2. BUY on the floor and HOLD for the LONG-TERM, this should be the investment motive for investors for now, we shouldn’t promise short-term gains experienced in the 1st half of 2007 as we watch new developments in the market. 
3. Shop for all private placements with SEC. this is a new window of investment which market makers have been exploring. A total of 10 private placements were approved by SEC last year from companies like Staco, Oaisis, Continental Re, Globe Re:, Sovereign etc… these stock have more than doubled their offer price most of which were issued @ a price below N1.00. Imagine me with 2 million units of Oasis @ 70 kobo last year, I would have sold @ N3.29 (its year high). This should yeild a NET profit of N2.5 million, in less than a year!!! For POs pls invest a heavy chunk on a very good offer, buying from the floor may warrant diversification due to price volatility.  

BREIF MARKET REVIEW
Yesterday, the All-Share Index dipped, yet again, for the 6th trading day in a row, by 0.91 % from 50,900.06 points yesterday to 50,437.74, the Market Capitalisation also dropped back to the N7 trillion mark as it closed lower by 91 basis points from N7.78 trillion in the previous outing to close at N7.91 trillion yesterday. Top 5 trades emerged from the banking and insurance sub-sectors. Afribank topped the activity chart with a traded volume of about 167 million units of shares worth a whooping N5.1 million exchanged hands in just 41 deals. It will be recalled that Afribank was placed on technical suspension during the month following the bank’s application to the NSE for a public offer, the price traded @ N30.49 throughout today’s proceeding. Other stocks on the top 5 trades were Sterling, FCMB, FBN and Firstinland. My analysis for today focuses on Sterling Bank, which stood 2nd on today’s activity chart. Sterling Bank is a merger of five medium-sized but reputable Nigerian Banks; Namely Indo-Nigerian Bank Ltd, Magnum Trust Bank, NAL Bank Plc, NBM Bank and Trust Bank of Africa Ltd. These banks, in September 2005, took a decision to merge into a single entity and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Sterling Bank Plc has accessed credit facility totaling $100 million (N127 billion) from the international financial market with AFREXIM Bank as the Lead Arranger, also, the bank is already in partnership with a French bank Credit Agricole Asset Management (a subsidiary of Credit Agricole of France) to manage Nigeria’s external reserve. Asset base, in the third quarter result for 30th June 2007 released on the 1st of August, stood at N137.34 billion, improved by about N24.04 billion or 21.22% from full year’s N113.29 billion of 2006. Of this figure, the bank’s loans and advances portfolio worth N50.13 billion was the most significant contributor to this pool, representing 36.50% of the bank’s total assets, better also than full year’s N38.94 billion. With an enhanced capital base from the facility, Sterling may not visit the market to further shore up its share holders’ funds on the short run, a major concern though is the gearing status the bank now has which will make the bank hard-pressed to sustain their earnings & ROI (return on investment) to cover up for interest charges and still pay reasonable dividend by full year. Sterling appears to be a GOOD BUY for the LONG-TERM.


My caveat still holds. BUT, invest CAUTIOUSLY,

Good day all,

@ mypeace and easimoni, the issue of not picking up your rights in a right issue could detrimental to your shareholding and the market value of your stock.

There is this term called theoretical ex-right price of a stock, it is the market price that a stock will theoretically have following a new rights issue. Although the stock price is not likely to change immediately following the new rights issue, it will change as the rights expiration date approaches. 
 
The theoretical ex-rights price is based on the company's market capitalization and the number of shares outstanding. For example, if a new rights offering gives buyers the right to purchase 25% more shares than there are currently outstanding, the market price of the stock will theoretically be 25% less in the future than it is today (assuming 100% of the new rights will be exercised by the holders). 

In a lay man's language, I'll strongly recommend that investors pick up their rights and buy more of the public offer (in hybrid issues), this will insure you against dillution of shares and price losses. This is because rights are cheaper and the market will on the long run adjust to the effect of the newly listed issues (arbitraging) given the fact that people who bought @ the right price may want to take profit leading to price plunge, and you who failed to pick up your right suffers the losses. So take up your CCNN rights, take up your Japaul rights when it cums on board,


For the remaining half of the year, BUY CAUTIOUSLY! I don't see much capital gains at the secondary segment of the market, BUY all POs available now!

Peace, am out! for now,

@ tellmemore, not yet,

My regards to everybodi on the thread, most especially to all the gurus, y'all doin a great job, it's simply amazing to watch this thread grow dis tall!

However, Hay Why La La isnt too happy cause of the current plummet in the share value of my darling GTB. I have therefore  decided to give an insight into what could be responsible for the downward trend in the share price of the 6th largest bank in Nigeria (by assets). Other comments as to the causative factor will be highly appreciated,

WHY THE PRICE Of GTB IS SLIDING,

The price of GTB is currently witnessing a plunge due to no other reason but the GDR offer which just got concluded. The reference price fixed at $12.75 was not matched by bidders in the local market; reports reaching the research desk has it that the GDR was bidded for @ a price of $11.20, translating to N1,411.20 for 50 shares of GTB @ an exchange rate of N126 to $1, since 1 GDR is equivalent to 50 shares of GTB. This brings down the valuation price of GTB to N28.22 per share (this is ridiculous!). The GDR is sure going to be a better option for investors with GTB trading @ N33.00 as @ 23rd of July, 2007. Arbitraging, the action embarked upon by investors due to the price differential between the GDR and the shares on the floor of the NSE, will definitely bring the two prices @ par in the not too distant future. GDRs’ prices should be fixed as the offer opens in subsequent times with GTB learning from the floating price scheme. A total of N134bn or $750m was realized from the offer as GTBank deposited the certificates to CSCS.



I therefore envisage a valuation price of N30.00 for GTB going by this current development, but please bear in mind the price will soon be on the upward trend as we await the interim dividend in two month’s time, we therefore forecast a price of N40.00 for GTB in the short-term.





Thank you

Good all!!! Work has been tooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!! demandin,



Market pundits have the believe that the Nigerian Equities Market is witnessing a correction stage in the sense that the market having witnessed a boom in the first-half of the year with stocks returning as much as 900% capital gain, profit-taking has now resulted in the current share price plummet. The mad rush for penny stocks have thus resulted in price rallies across the board. Fundamentals will still continue to dictate stock pricing in any developing market. This is a period of CAUTIOUS-BUY.



INSURANCE

A careful research on the insurance sector has revealed that a stock like LASACO which was overvalued is currently trading at its fair value (below N3.00), the only result from the insurance company was its 3 months result for 31 March in the 2006 fiscal year which showed a decline in PAT to N73 million from N78 million in 2005,



NEM is a N4.00 stock bearing in mind that its new issues are yet to be listed.



Mutual Benefit is a N6.00 stock on the short-term; it should be trading at par with Continental Re: bearing in mind their similar capital base, Crusader is undervalued so also is Wapic,



Cornerstone is another stock which is hibernating, a sudden upside is likely.



Watch out for Aiico, which will soon become a bigger general insurer, we also advice investors to gear-up for position taking in Continental Re (the sole-quoted Re-insurer in Nigeria with a minimum capital base of N10bn), this is a N10 stock on the medium-term to long-term. Custodian is also looking good, while UNIC is a bit dicey for now but with strong future prospects.



BANKING



I regard Access as a ‘sleeper’ for now, once the suspension is lifted. I project N30.00 by March 2008, the bank’s MD is projecting N38.00 for the same period, the management comprises of intelligent individuals who leverage on new innovations in utilizing its funds.



Afribank is a laggard hence efforts are being made to push the price to @ least N20.



FCMB can only shoot higher with a good dividend declaration, Diamond bank is a good HOLD same goes for Platinum (a merger possibility with Afribank is the current market-hearsay), Diamond-First inland is another merger plan in focus.



Wema could do a profit after-tax of N6bn in its full year result for March 2006 which brings it to a fair value of N15.00 per share. Unity is a SELL as it has no fundamentals. Sterling is a long-term buy. You can invest in GTB, Intercont, Oceanic, FBN, Zenith as a long term buy that will yield maximum returns.



UBA’s court case if immaterial will drive the price to above N65 by December. I believe Fidelity’s price is managed by its brokerage subsidiary due to its public offer proposals.



Skye should trade well above Fidelity’s price since Skye has 7bn shares Fidelity has 16bn while the two banks make the same P.A.T in their quarterly un-audited results.



I shall continue to X-ray some other sub-sectors as more interesting scenarios unfold. A sure security against price losses is to buy public offers, though Dunlop was a bad investment.

HOT RAVES OF THE MOMENT!

Niger Insurance, Ecobank (long-term), Royal Exchange, Aiico, Law Union, Intercont, Wapic Oceanic, the list is inexhaustive.


Other goodies 4 Y'all;

STOCKS & THEIR FUNDAMENTALS
GTBank
Scorecard:
• Floated the first Eurobond by a Nigerian Bank worth $350 million which was oversubscribed.
• Return on Equity of 27.8%-highest in the sector
• Capital base of N150bn post GDR Offer
• Retail customer base grew from 139,000 in 2005 to over 450,000 as at June 2007
Recommendation: Long-Term BUY Price as @ 9th July 2007 (N) 35.50
Year-till-date (% Appreciation) 95.59
Latest Dividend Per Share (N) 0.75
PE Ratio (Times) 24.32
EPS (N) 1.46
Entry Price (N) 35.55
Exit Price (N) 45.00
Year End February

Mutual Benefit Assurance
Scorecard:
• Largest composite insurance company in Nigeria with N10bn capital base.
• 1st insurer to initiate interim dividend payment scheme
• Injection of foreign investor’s funds (Augustus Group Washington)
• Wide range of insurance products
Recommendation: Medium-Term BUY Price as @ 9th July 2007 (N) 4.81
Year-till-date (% Appreciation) 568.06
Latest Dividend Per Share (N) 0.10
PE Ratio 40.49
EPS (N) 0.12
Entry Price (N) 4.82
Exit Price (N) 7.00
Year End December

WAPIC Insurance
Scorecard:
• The lead Nigerian risk underwriter of the launched NigComSat 1 to the tune of N2bn. The 5,086kg communications satellite, first of its kind to be launched by an African country, is designed to operate in the C, KU, KA and L bands and is Africa’s geostationary communications satellite expected to offer broadcasting telecoms and broadband services.
Recommendation: Long-Term BUY Price as @ 9th July 2007 (N) 7.97
Year-till-date (% Appreciation) 99.25
Latest Dividend Per Share (N) 0.18
PE Ratio 16.05
EPS (N) 0.50
Entry Price (N) 7.95
Exit Price (N) 12.00
Year End December

Access Bank
Scorecard:
• 1st Bank in Africa and 2nd Globally to implement Flex cube 6.2
• Currently ranked 9th in the banking industry
• Rated ‘A+’ by Global Credit Rating Company
• Over $500 million on on-lending relationship with all Major DFI and IFIs
• Leader in Government Securities Trading
• Ranked N0 1 Globally in utilization of IFC Trade Facility
Recommendation: Long-term BUY Price as @ 9th July 2007 (N) 19.32
Year-till-date (% Appreciation) 177.59
Latest Dividend Per Share (N) 0.40
PE Ratio 16.64
EPS (N) 1.16
Entry Price (N) 1.32
Exit Price (N) 30.00
Year End March

Intercontinental Bank
Scorecard:
• The 5th largest bank in Africa by capital base
• Biggest bank in Nigeria by capital base
• Among the 1st 500 banks in the world
• Influx of foreign investors like Rand Merchant Bank, AIG Investment Group, RICO-a leading business group in the mid-east
• 1st Nigerian Bank to cross the $1bn capital base
Recommendation: Medium-term BUY Price as @ 9th July 2007 (N) 25.50
Year-till-date (% Appreciation) 87.50
Projected Dividend Per Share 0.65
PE Ratio 17.67
EPS (N) 1.44
Entry Price (N) 25.55
Exit Price (N) 39.00
Year End February




MY DISCLAIMER
This report contained herewith is produced by A.Y. as a guideline for investors who intend to trade in securities. The information contained herein is merely an invitation to treat and has no intention to create legal obligation. Therefore, investors have the option to invest without complete reliance on any part of the information contained thereof. hence, A.Y. LA LA shall not be liable civilly or criminally for actions taken as a result of the information provided herein. Please pardon my gramatical errors.



GOD BLESS Y'ALL AS U MAKE SUM KOOL MONEY.


Invest wisely!!!

Gud morning all!!! Easimoni, frank,omoba, cheek girl, et al i salute ur ingenuity

This thread is arguably the most informative, educative and financially rewarding thread in the history of business forum in nairaland. The collection of gurus in the house is enough to cause a stir in the world market as the Nigerian financial System strategises/focuses on capturing the entire African market by 2020 as affirmed by Soludo - CBN Governor.

Nairalanders can attest to the fact that my predictions on some very salient stocks have already come to pass, many thanks to all my well wishers all over the world who have kept my fone lines very busy day-in,day-out, thanks for your encouragements and prayers, i didnt make u a millionaire, but God did!!!

All doubting Thomas and Thomases, get out of ur shell and get a gud fund manager to make ur investment decision for u, then u can go to sleep! Some of them are on this thread.

@ oxytech, u re rite abt the short comings of analysis, but analysis is still working, it has been working since the inception of the Stock Market.

The origin of stock markets goes back a couple of centuries. The roots
of stock markets are to be found at the beginnings of the Industrial
Revolution that began in Europe about four centuries ago.

A company cannot cook its books for 2 long, u'll have to carryover accrued liabilities/expenses which will soon hit the public and the market will adjust to the intrisic value of the stock, some quoted Nigerian coys are already being punished already for this.


Check out my hot list which have performed well in the last few weeks, Oceanic, UBA, Diamond, MB, Union Bank, Skye, Bank PHB, Wema, FCMB and even Evans,

The NSE trading is not affected by NLC strike as trading continued yeaterday, but, the market is currently down, has been down in the last three days, risk-avert investors should hold on as we await today's outcome. the bearish atmosphere in the market could be attribited to two factors

1. Investors are selling/taking profit in order to beat the deadline of the BIG HYBRID OFERR of First bank of Nigeria Plc which should have closed today, but i believe there will be an extension by two weeks because of the lingering crisis btw the govt and the labour union which resulted in the closure of banks and most rights holders have not yet recieved their rights circular. The massive sales have thus resulted in the drop of prices across the board, so pls dont panic, cos the market cld be up today if an extension of the offer still holds. Time value of money is actually being considered that's why investors wait for the last days before purchasing public offers asmoney cld be made be made on the secondary market transactions between the opening the closing period. THE ELEPHANT (First bank) HAS CAUSED A DIP IN THE MARKET!!! What a capition!

2. Investors cld also be on the selling spree cos of their uncertainties and apprehensiveness on the outcome of the strike and the effects thereof. Political instability has always been a bane on any economy.

The All Share Index firmed minimally by 0.01% yesterday dropping below the 50,000 points mark. Most banking and insurance stocks dropped (thats where the action is )

For risk takers, i think this is the time to buy barring all unforseen circumstances, as i believe the market will surely come alive today.

My hot picks, based on the specifics;
Royalex; Sovereign Trust, Oceanic, UBA, Prestige, Vitafoam, Longman, UPL, Skye, Firstinland , AP, Wema, MBenefit, FCMB, IBTC, Berger Paints, Afrprint, Bank PHB, Sterling,

If u can get Continental Re: and Custodyins, then GUD FOR U!

Risk averters, sell ur Nascon for profit 2morrow. Risk-takers hold on for the 60 kobo dividend promised by Dangote by Full year 31st Dec. 2007

These stocks have made me rich, it could make you rich 2!

I might not be able to reply all questions online, my mobile reltel is still on +234-01-4041391

I Remain Ay Dot for life

Helo All !!!
Great job on this thread, thanks all. Easimoni, Frankiri et al, i salute!!!
I'll like 2 remind Nairaland users and indeed th world that the best place any rational investor shld invest now is in the Nigerian Equities Market. The World bank data shows that Nigeria has witnessed the highest influx of capital inflow in Africa in form of either foreign direct investment (FDI) and/of foreign portfolio investment (FPI). Most of our banks now have foreign investors/technical partners so as to position them for the global market invasion, the top three banks (FBN,UBA and Zenith) already has branches in the business districts of USA and England. The NSE All-Share Index has rallied by 58% from 33,189.30 points on January 4, 2007 to 51,383.64 today.

A quote from Ndidi Okereke-Nyiuke speech while endorsing FBN’s Hybrid Offer “Those who invested N1,000.00 in the stock in the last 10 years have had over 5,000% returns on their investments as at today”

I beseech u all to take advantage of this golden opportunity to benefit from this juicy market. STOP THE FIXED DEPOSITS NOW!!! At best u can get 8% returns per annum from your savings account, while the stock market returns is simply limitless as u can make 20,50,100,250 nay, 500% returns in a year (ask Intra Motors Plc shareholders for the 2006 year)

Hot Stocks for the season!
1. Japaul Oil: The directors of the Maritime Company is paying  N0.11 dividend per share (very high for an otherwise penny stock) for the year ended 31st December, 2006 to be ratified by the shareholders on 11 July, 2007.  Actually, nobody is selling this stock right now, most traded one are cross-deals. An imminent IPO of N5bn in the offing.

2. MBenefit: Impressive full year result, though dividend declaration not yet made public.

3. C & I Leasing: Unprecedented Q1 result for March 2007

4. Skye Bank: One of the hottest banking stock of the moment. Good forecasted EPS of 0.60

5. The trio of Oceanic, UBA and Diamond bank


Zenith almost touched the N60.00 mark today!

I forecast N80.00 per share for Zenith if and only if a bonus of 1 for 1 is declared by Jim

Intercontinental bank shareholders were averse about the final 35k dividend deeclared last friday as investors promptly reacted by dumping the shares since then, lost N1.37 today to close at N26.18. I predicted this price trend before. Still a GOOD long term buy though.

Sumbodi cld also look out for UNIC and Evans Med., they are sumwat sleepers currently.

MY CAVEAT STILL STANDS!

Gud night all

Like i predicted, UBA, Oceanic and Diamond bank (its technical suspension was lifted 2day) all closed 5% higher 2day as they were all on full bid. Even Intercontinental (Now the bank with the highest capital base of about N170 billion followin the recent foreign interest) closed N1.27 higher at N26.77. patience is the game here!

Union Bank stockholders, i think u av every reason 2 smile; Y? because i think sumtin big is in the offing for u guys as the stock has been on the rise since friday last week. i wont let the cat out of the bag! !!

UBN holders, i suggest u hold on2 your stock as we await its full year result.

I repeat, most bankin stocks are GUD BUYs!!! Watch out for IBTC and FCMB, still underpriced.

Hi people!!! Great job! Goin in2 partnership wit sum people wont b a bad idea afterall.  Kip up the brillant contributions.
I brought y'all good tidings from the floor, the bullish trend witnessed in the Nig. Equities market is simply unparalelled wit an estimated avg returns of about 40% annually!!! @ Olarrylaw, i feel u, i believe bullish trends aren't forever, but i wont be so pesimistic about the market and that a possible crash in the nearest future is in the ofing. tanks to CSCS for the backup and the prayers of the saints who are in2 stocks. I also agree wit rational investing; i mean investin wit sense. I will never recommend long term investment in stocks witout pedigree or fundamentals, except i want to speculate, because am a risk taker, that is the way market operators make their mega bucks! To avert great losses in cases of a possible market depression, then go 4 porfolio diversification (i mean spreadin of stocks across sub-sectors), who believed that the share price a food/bev. giant on the NSE could crash  . I av said in ma earlier posts that investors all over the world shld know an element of risk exists in their investments. But nothin really 2 worry about, keep investing in liquid (readily traded) stocks on both short and long term basis.

HOT STOCKS!!

UBA and Oceanic : The technical suspension on these stocks were lifted on friday though their prices were still immobilised. Mark my word! Oceanic will do N35 (from it current price of N19.53) by sept '07 UBA will do N50 from N37.99.

C & I Leasing: Impressive 1st qtr result for mar. 07 which trippled comparable to that of '06. It cld do N7.00 on the short run from it current N3.88 per share.

IBTC , Diamond, and Afribank : Market hearsay has it that thses trio will also b lifted from technical suspension, i frankly blv that their prices will witness an upside instantly.


@ Spicie not getin your cscs numb cld mean your broker is in2 sumtin fishy, your account cld b traded on witout your concent, makin money from u in the process, try goin 2 cscs, 2 confirm your stocks account position, 1st floor NSE bulidin. Dont be a passive investor, if u trade on high volumes, get a trade alert!

UBN is doin N34.18, Intercont N25.50, Unity N6.00

@ vision, from the little i know, d registrars 4 your highlighted coys are;

UBN- Union registrars
UBA- UBA Global makets
Zenith- Zenith Registrars
FBN- First Registrars

@ Allwell, a bonus issue by intercontinentalbk is highly unlikely; REASON: The bank just issued a public offer which wld've increased its shares in issue, a bonus issue will further dillute its (earnings per share) EPS and div. per share (DPS). An extra ordinary meeting will soon br held by the bank to address some issue, top on the list would be a share reconstruction execise, so as to reduce its shares outstanding, this practice will make the EPS and DPS attractive (major tools in fundamental analysis). Intercont already gave an interim div of 30 kobo per share feb this year, we expect a final div of not more than 70k per share, once the share reconstruction is approved by the shareholders and approval by NSE, the share price will be placed on technical suspension or temporarily delisted till the conclusion of that exercise, so hold if u are a long term investor, or sell for capital gain, if any. I rate intercon AA+ long term. Foreign investors are already in the country for a stake (convertible prefernce shares) in the bank, so somebodi giv me a good reason why nigerians shouldn't believe in their banks. Your banks are going international now, 10 are to be listed in London soon. Ofcourse, Intercon is one of them!!!

Nice contributions guys, @ easimoni, nice contribution, Ashaka, nay, most building stocks will soon be scarce commodities, WAPCO's 1st quater result is already propellin its price to another level. Holding or sellin ashaka ispurely dependent on the investor's motive, if u bought ashaka @ N55.00 per share this year (its yr low), am sure @ N83.50 yesterday, u've made 28.5 million naira gross profit if u had a million units within four months. The long overdue full year results for dec. 2006 is expected to further drive its share value on the short run, am sure the coy's directors will take a clue from the public's reaction to wapco declarin just N1 div wit no bonus issue. ashaka cld do a bonus, and N1 div. If this happens N100 is within ashaka's reach!