₦airaland Forum

[size=15pt]S&P’s negative outlook for Nigeria not unexpected –FG[/size]

By Yemi Kolapo
Published: Monday, 30 Mar 2009

The cut in Standard & Poor’s ratings outlook from “stable” to “negative” is not unexpected, considering the fiscal revenue contraction being witnessed in the economy, the Federal Government has said.
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Minister of State for Finance, Mr. Remi Babalola

The Minister of State for Finance, Mr. Remi Babalola, said on Saturday that the country’s outlook was not expected to be very optimistic since the nation relied heavily on oil revenue, which had continued to decrease as a result of falling world oil prices.

Standard & Poor’s said on Friday that it had lowered Nigeria’s ratings outlook to “negative” from “stable”, saying, falling oil revenues were straining public finances.

Reuters reported that S&P had warned earlier last week that ratings across Africa were being skewed to the downside by the global economic crisis, and that it was watching Nigeria’s rating very closely.

The ratings agency also said it was nervous over falling reserves and “unorthodox policy measures” that risked undermining foreign investor-confidence.

However, Babalola, who spoke in a telephone interview with our correspondent on Saturday, said the fact that the outlook had changed did not imply that the rating had also changed.

“That the outlook has changed does not mean that the rating has changed. What your outlook is, determines whether your rating will be downgraded in the next one year,” he said.

The minister, however, said the eventual rating could be negative or positive depending on what happened in the Nigerian economy between now and the next rating.

According to him, “The rating may or may not be negative. It depends on what happens between now and the next rating. With the type of fiscal revenue contraction that we have, and when you realise that we rely heavily on oil, we should expect that.

“That was why S&P looked at it and said with what is happening in our economy, the outlook is not very optimistic. But when you look at the direction that the price of crude is going now, from the prognosis that we have, it is more promising than in the last four months.”

He said there was a possibility that the revenue constraint might be exaggerated as the year went by, adding that “if we don’t have production hiccups, and price moves to about $52 or $55 per barrel, it means that we will be able to earn sufficient money to cushion that weather.”

But Reuters said the agency, which also affirmed Nigeria ‘s “BB-” foreign currency and “BB” local currency long-term sovereign credit ratings, said considerable uncertainty surrounded the outlook for the country’s finances because of higher government spending and production constraints arising from quota limits imposed by energy cartel, OPEC.

“The negative outlook reflects the increased risk that the institutional response to falling oil revenue would result in a continued worsening of the business environment and a deterioration of Nigeria’s balance sheet beyond our central assumptions,” S&P said.

It said the downgrading of Nigeria ‘s rating outlook also reflected the government’s response to the global financial crisis and its reliance on oil exports, adding that “we believe the adverse terms of trade shock would hurt Nigeria ’s credit profile both on the fiscal and external side.”

http://www.punchng.com/Articl.aspx?theartic=Art20090330423626

[size=15pt]Standard & Poor�s Downgrades Nigeria�s Credit Rating[/size]
By Ayodele Aminu with agency report, 03.28.2009

Standard & Poor�s (S&P) yesterday lowered Nigeria's ratings outlook to "negative" from "stable", citing falling oil revenues, which were hurting public finances.
S&P, the world�s formost provider of independent credit ratings had warned earlier this week that ratings across Africa were being �skewed to the downside" by the global economic crisis.
It said it was watching Nigeria's rating �very closely�, and was nervous over falling reserves and "unorthodox policy measures" that risked undermining foreign investor confidence.
The ratings agency, which also affirmed Nigeria's "BB-" foreign currency and "BB" local currency long-term sovereign credit ratings, in its latest report on Nigeria said "considerable uncertainty" surrounded the outlook for the country's finances because of higher government spending and production constraints arising from quota limits imposed by energy cartel Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
"The negative outlook reflects the increased risk that the institutional response to falling oil revenue will result in a continued worsening of the business environment and a deterioration of Nigeria's balance sheet beyond our central assumptions," said S&P in a statement.
With Nigeria �overwhelmingly reliant� on oil, its 2009 budget projections �may be difficult to attain given long-standing constraints on output stemming from unrest in the Niger Delta,� the statement said.
Attacks by armed groups in the southern region that accounts for almost all of Nigeria�s oil and gas have cut more than 20 per cent of crude exports since 2006. Oil accounts for more than 80 per cent of government revenue and 95 per cent of foreign exchange earnings.
The reduction indicates S&P may lower its rating on Nigeria�s debt and is a reflection of the worsening business environment created by falling oil revenue and the �institutional response� to it. S&P forecast a current account deficit of 7.2 per cent of gross domestic product this year, compared with estimates of a 6.3 per cent surplus last year.
It said the downgrading of Nigeria's rating outlook also reflected the government's response to the global financial crisis and its reliance on oil exports. Oil collapsed from almost $150 last year to close to $50 now.
"We believe the adverse terms of trade shock will hurt Nigeria's credit profile both on the fiscal and external side," S&P added.
S&P said the foreign exchange controls imposed by Nigeria last February would continue to hurt Nigerian banks' access to cross-border funding and weaken portfolio investor confidence.
Nigeria has effectively frozen the inter-bank foreign exchange market to stem the decline in the naira currency as it slumped along with the oil price, spooking foreign investors but it said the move should act as a "shock absorber".
�The deteriorating outlook prompted the Central Bank of Nigeria to impose currency controls in order to preserve foreign exchange reserves, reported at year-end 2008 at 35 per cent of forecast 2009 gross external financing needs. These currency controls have caused a re-emergence of the parallel foreign exchange market, following it�s conversion with the official rate.
�Notwithstanding assurances that funds are available for the legitimate current transactions of corporations, these controls will hurt the banks' access to cross-border funding and will weaken portfolio investor confidence. We also expect the quality of banks' credit and security portfolios to weaken given the turbulence in local capital markets and the sudden slowdown in economic growth, and bank profitability to be lowered by recently imposed lending and deposit ceilings.
�We expect bank lending growth to fall sharply to 6% in 2009, following an estimated average of more than 80% over the past two years, which will in turn constrain overall GDP growth to 1.5% this year,� the rating agency said.
S&P warned that slower economic growth would hit the quality of Nigeria's bank credit portfolio and hurt bank profitability.
Several other countries including Botswana, Ghana and South Africa have already seen ratings or outlooks cut, while Zambia and Tanzania have abandoned moves towards getting ratings as they were seen having little prospect of issuing foreign currency bonds given tight global credit conditions.
"Expect more downgrades," said Razia Khan, regional head of research for Africa at Standard Chartered bank. "A lot of countries are going to be impacted negatively by the crisis, and there has been a reassessment of what the crisis will mean for Africa."
She said the S&P Nigeria action was not unexpected but was perhaps overly harsh, given that when Nigeria was first rated in January 2006, oil prices were only slightly higher than currently.
"The risks to external liquidity are a little overdone, but the oil price has come off its highs and people are looking at the policy response and whether it is the best way forward," she said

http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=139351

Why has the leadership of redeem church not come forward to explain to the general public reason behind the Private aircraft purchase?

Somebody of Mark's status must choose his words carefully so as not to give the wrong impression. Its unfair to blame the victim of a crime while been cynical with the perpetrator. The modulus operandi of 419 is very sophisticated, and nobody is immune. Governments, groups and individual of high intelligence had fallen victim

If it were to be a western country, Mark would be forced to resign, but since its Nigeria , anything goes

Watch a video of a migrants trying trying to cross the sahara:


http://www.algerianamericans.com/component/hwdvideoshare/?task=viewvideo&video_id=13

Depilot wrote

Locking up the topic with no explanation defeat the purpose of this forum, it also shows lack of creativeness and receptiveness to the opinions of others.

"I may disagree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."
"I detest what you write, but I would give my life to make it possible for you to continue to write."

François-Marie Arouet (1694 – 1778)

Afaukwu wrote

Do not waste your time. That guy, bilymuse, can never sustain any argument. The guy is a bloody illiterate and an utter ignoramus.

thanks

KnowAll wrote
Nigeria cannot afford an Ibo president - The heading is tribalistic to say the least and should have been locked ages ago, every Nigerian can have a go for top job irrespective of your tribe. The poster should have at least try to modify the title if he really wants a debate to something like " Can Nigeria really afford to have an Igbo president " this kind of question is open to debate and as long as people are not getting over heated and into self degradation the thread will be left open. Mr moderator keep the good work going.


The judge cannot convict a man simply because he called himself ," the killer". Without considering the merit of the case, that would be a miscarriage of justice.

You do not judge a book by it cover.

[size=13pt]Remember Asamaka
See Morocco See Spain
12 kilometre to hell[/size]

[size=15pt]AFRICANS CROSSING THE SAHARA TO EUROPE[/size]

As many of us go about our normal daily activities on the continent, a silent
and pathetic valley of death is claiming the lives of our people in their wanton drive to leave the living heat and hell on our continent. I am even shedding tears as I remember the investigation I did to discover this dark side of our people's lives. Groups of African men and women (including Ghanaians) begin their journey to the unknown from Agadis in Niger by car to Alate, then hop in another vehicle to Asamaka and then end up at Jenet in the middle of nowhere near Mount Hoga which is on the northern border of Niger with Algeria. They then pay a desert guide to walk them through a desert route covering a distance of 50 km by foot till they get to Mount Hugo. They then change course and walk for another 350 km to Obari which is the the first border town in Algeria.

From this point on, there is no village or human settlement (just open desert). The distance they have to walk covers a period of 3 weeks before getting to Sabat in Libya. During the day when the sun is hot, there is no movement. Movement begins at sundown through the night till about 10:30 the following morning when the sun gets hot again. Your bottle of water in this dry scorching desert, has to last you the length of the period because there is no water. Once in Libya, they have to travel long distances at very high risk of being arrested or even killed, to get to cross the mediterranean sea into Europe. The valley of the shadow of death is the route on the desert.

During this journey on foot, many give up the ghost when they get tired, get tired or fall sick. They are left behind as the group must move on. There are so many dead bodies of Africans with their passports on their chests. Their relatives neither know where they are nor do they have a clue that they are dead. , It is really sad. In some cases, the guide loses his bearings so they all wonder in the desert till death parts them all. There are horrific stories of strange beasts and animals attacking them. Our leaders do not seem to have a clue as to the consequencies of thier misrule.

Anonymous.

THE HANDSTAND
FEBRUARY 2003

http://www.thehandstand.org/archive/february2003/articles/africa.htm

@ RichyBlack
Thanks for unlocking the thread

[size=15pt]AFRICANS CROSSING THE SAHARA TO EUROPE[/size]

As many of us go about our normal daily activities on the continent, a silent
and pathetic valley of death is claiming the lives of our people in their wanton drive to leave the living heat and hell on our continent. I am even shedding tears as I remember the investigation I did to discover this dark side of our people's lives. Groups of African men and women (including Ghanaians) begin their journey to the unknown from Agadis in Niger by car to Alate, then hop in another vehicle to Asamaka and then end up at Jenet in the middle of nowhere near Mount Hoga which is on the northern border of Niger with Algeria. They then pay a desert guide to walk them through a desert route covering a distance of 50 km by foot till they get to Mount Hugo. They then change course and walk for another 350 km to Obari which is the the first
border town in Algeria. From this point on, there is no village or human settlement (just open desert). The distance they have to walk covers a period of 3 weeks before getting to Sabat in Libya. During the day when the sun is hot, there is no movement. Movement begins at sundown through the night till about 10:30 the following morning when the sun gets hot again. Your bottle of water in this dry scorching desert, has to last you the length of the period because there is no water. Once in Libya, they have to travel long distances at very high risk of being arrested or even killed, to get to cross the mediterranean sea into Europe. The valley of the shadow of death is the route on the desert.

During this journey on foot, many give up the ghost when they get tired, get tired or fall sick. They are left behind as the group must move on. There are so many dead bodies of Africans with their passports on their chests. Their relatives neither know where they are nor do they have a clue that they are dead. , It is really sad. In some cases, the guide loses his bearings so they all wonder in the desert till death parts them all. There are horrific stories of strange beasts and animals attacking them. Our leaders do not seem to have a clue as to the consequencies of thier misrule.

Anonymous.

THE HANDSTAND
FEBRUARY 2003

http://www.thehandstand.org/archive/february2003/articles/africa.htm

May her soul rest in peace

What about the twins?

[size=15pt]Nigerian lady dies in the desert giving birth
[/size]
26.03.2009



A Nigerian lady has died in the desert in Oran, Algeria, while being delivered of a set of twins.

Nigeria’s Ambassador to Algeria, Jeremiah Hassan, who disclosed this while speaking with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Algiers, said the lady was among Nigerians and other Africans who have lost their lives in their bid to travel to Europe illegally.

Hassan said the remains of the lady were still in a mortuary because efforts were being made to trace her parents. He lamented the rate at which Nigerians and other African immigrants were dying in the Sahara in their desperation to get out of their countries.

He said it was saddening that hundreds of Nigerians and black Africans wasted their lives daily in search of greener pastures in Europe.

“Some Nigerians and other Africans have set up camps along the desert route, where they pretend to be prepared to offer assistance to these desperadoes.

“They end up either fleecing the illegal immigrants of their money and other belongings or turning them into labourers or prostitutes,” he said.

According to him, many got lost in the desert while on the journey. “About 14 Africans, including their driver and his son, who was the conductor in the bus, died last week in the desert after they got lost, ran out of fuel and water,” he said.

http://www.tribune.com.ng/26032009/news/news7.html

@ RichyBlack

People given position of trust to administer must be willing to explain their actions when called upon and take full responsibility for their deeds. To deny somebody his the right to air is view is to take away his fundamental human right. By locking the thread without explanation, RichyBlack has acted like the Abacha regime who would closed a newspaper house simply because they don't like what the paper wrote. Peace is not the absence of conflict, but the presence of justice.

In this scenario, RichyBlack is acting like the prosecutor; the jury does not expect the defendant to explain to them why the prosecutor has brought him to court. The anus lies with the prosecutor to explain to the jury why he has brought the accuse to court.

RichyBlack took an action, it is for him to explain why he took the action. He cannot expect me to enter into his head and speculate on the reason behind his action. How do you expect me to defend myself in a court when no charge has been proffered against me.

I believe have done absolutely nothing wrong, nor broke any law in Nairaland that warrant the thread to be locked. I presume innocent unless prove guilty.

@ RichyBlack

People given position of trust to administer must be willing to explain their actions when called upon and take full responsibility for their deeds. To deny somebody his the right to air is view is to take away his fundamental human right. By locking the thread without explanation, RichyBlack has acted like the Abacha regime who would closed a newspaper house simply because they don't like what the paper wrote. Peace is not the absence of conflict, but the presence of justice.

In this scenario, RichyBlack is acting like the prosecutor; the jury does not expect the defendant to explain to them why the prosecutor has brought him to court. The anus lies with the prosecutor to explain to the jury why he has brought the accuse to court.

RichyBlack took an action, it is for him to explain why he took the action. He cannot expect me to enter into his head and speculate on the reason behind his action. How do you expect me to defend myself in a court when no charge has been proffered against me.

I believe have done absolutely nothing wrong, nor broke any law in Nairaland that warrant the thread to be locked. I presume innocent unless prove guilty.

[size=15pt]The pholosophy of free speech[/size]



"I may disagree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."



"I detest what you write, but I would give my life to make it possible for you to continue to write."


François-Marie Arouet (1694  – 1778)

Richyblack, I'm waiting for an answer

Ikeyman00 wrote

Ojukwu is a bad joke
bilymuse withdraw that statement!!

Ojukwi is not only a bad joke, but a useless old man. Time without number he has held several meetings with Massob, and Uwazurike is a constant caller at Ojukwu house. The Federal government are not loosing sleep over Massob, because they knew about Ojukwu involvement. So far Ojukwu is involved its going to fail, because Ojukwu is a failure.

The selfish coward ran away at the end of Biafra war , taking with him millions of Biafra Hard currency for his own personal comfort in exile. He has never sacrifice anything for anybody, and unworthy to be called a leader. The fool does not care about anybody, all he care about is himself.

Strenght 10 wrote

Ojukwu maybe a joke to Ordinary Nigerians, but he represents the will and strength of an Extra ordinary people called the IGBOS. If you are smart enough, you wiill ask yourself why igbos still feel dissatisfied with nigeria, why the Niger Delta is agitated with nigeria and are willing to fight for what belongs to them. It is a question of equity for all and Marginaliztion.

I have never in my entire live met a tribe or group or a person that is satisfy with Nigeria , except some few minority who had the opportunity of looting the treasury. Nobody is satisfy: the Jukuns are not, nor Igbira, nor Igala , nor Ijaw, nor Tivs, nor Yoruba , Igbo. Even the Hausas who dominate power are not satisfy. Nobody is happy.

I got pissed off when this Massob mafia try to relate everything back to the Biafran war. The real victim of project Nigeria are the poor people of Niger delta

Ojukwu is a bad joke

Becomrrich wrote

Look smaller ethnics group with less population than the igbos have a better change, Jonathan have a better chance becoming president than any igboman. it tell you the igbos need to do some about the way other nigerian see them and it start by them stop scamming people on the street of nigeria. Good business is the answer. let them trust you. look my uncle from my mother side is married to an igbo woman, my cousin too she is married to an igboman, i have nephew and niece who have 50% igbo blood in them.and they have same lastname like mine. So i am not been bias on this issue. i am telling you the truth.

May God continue to bless you and increase your wisdom

Ikeyman00 wrote

never underestimate the igbo-power!!

the power of cheating people

Becomrrich wrote

It is an issue of acceptability. It is so unfortunity to the good igbos but most nigerian heart have been wounded by igbo traders that most nigerian carry the mind set to see every igbo that why. it is not a yoruba issue. it is all over nigeria. they are know for ripping people off. Which has create the wrong impression in people mind. In the north that is one of the many reason the northerner do what they do sometime. they feel cheated by the igbos.

An average yoruba or hausa man in business would likely tell you close to the real price of a good with little profit on it. but if for an igboman , and the price is $100 the igboman would tell you , he want to sell it for $800. And you discovery the yoruba or hausa man selling same product for $120. they get piss off with the igbo people. And assume they are thief. Thier mind get information of who an igboman is. The igboman call it business. the other nigerian call it a scam.

You walk into an igbo store. He tell you he has two product fake and original. You would never walk into a yoruba or hausa store and find fake product in them. they would never want to sell it in the first place. This are the reason why nigerian see igbos as scammer and it affect the way they vote.
I would tell you , there are some igbos who are born again, but because people have already made up thier mind of who an igboman is. It is hard to make them vote for igbos. None tell of the story of the honest igboman trying to take care of his family and is not a trader because people do not see. Most people see the traders everyday. And they are the main medium to market the Igbos. And average igbo traders see over 500 people aday. He is who every Nigerian see as an Igboman because he is the one they deal with everyday and they get rip off.

Other Nigerian never want to do business with igbo people. they think twice. Igbos have to change this, the trader is the medium of marketing the Igbo presidency. If he stop ripping off other nigerians they would see igbos in a new light.

Give it to them in black and white

Becomrrich wrote

And one issue igbos needs to know, is acceptability. And this is not a statement to verify, we all know this. Igbos tend not to be acceptable to 90% of Nigerian. Majority of Nigerian would not vote for an igboman , no matter how good he or she is.

The igboman on the street have planted wrong or negative information of who an igbo person is. Nearly every Nigerian has a story to tell about an igbo man. Most Nigerian do not trust igbos in business.

I think the igbos need to deal with the common igbo. I think the igbos have to rebrand who is an igboman in the mind of Nigerian first.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

@ poster Becomrrich

the Massob mafia on the thread would labelled you a tribalist and eat you raw

Becomrrich wrote

The igboman on the street have planted wrong or negative information of who an igbo person is. Nearly every Nigerian has a story to tell about an igbo man. Most Nigerian do not trust igbos in business.

I mean rebranding an igbo man. And then an igboman would be president. You have to clear from the mind set of other Nigerian that igbos can not be trusted. And it start by common igbos on the street been honest and stop cheating people in business. And that would take many years of doing. Trust me on this. Other Nigerian do not trust igbos.


But even if Jesus Christ was igbos, in Nigerian politics no one would one to vote to him.

Rebranding the igbos is the answer.

They shall know the truth and the truth shall set them free

Asha 80

even state governments are known to be backing Massob morally and financially.

Where is your proof?

That OPC is supported morally and financially by  government in Yoruba states is open secret. OPC attends the pan Yoruba organisation meeting, Afenifere and enjoys a wide support among the people.

MEND and other militant organisation,  enjoys a wide support among the people and government of south South region. Even one Director of NNPC confirm that , NNPC gave MEND several millions of Naira and the Nigerian army sell them weapons too. What proof are you looking for?

That Massob enjoys financial and moral support from the government of Eastern states is an open secret too. Massob is used to whip up emotions, intimidate opponents and rig elections; just like OPC and MEND.

[size=17pt]MASSOB PROJECT[/size]

Afaukwu wrote

Will you also ask the Hausa/Fulani and Tiv to relinguish their hold on the military so that we have equal number of soldiers from all states?
Will you ask that all zones have equal number of states?
Will you ask that Yorubas stop dominating the accounting and insurance industry?
Will you ask that Niger Deltans stop asking for 100% resource control? Even though my own state is one of the oil-producing states
Will you ask that the North stop producing all the ministers of Abuja, since the creation of that place as Nig's capital?
Will you ask that the North stop producing all the ministers of Agriculture since independence?
Will you please ask northerners to stop killing southerners in their midst?

Fair enough, all issues are up for discussion. The Igbos are marginalised in federal appointments- fact; that must be addressed. Abandoned properties, compensations , etc all should be addressed.

There is a bigger issue that supersede all: the Massob project. Massob is the only organisation that wants to break up Nigeria. They have a wide support among the Igbos , even state governments are known to be backing Massob morally and financially.

You cannot eat your cake and have it. Igbos cannot expect Nigerians to hand over the presidency, while at the same time they back an organisation that wants to break up Nigeria.

Asha 80

bilymuse what do you suggest igbos should do?

They must stop dominating Nigerian markets unfairly. Nobody is afraid of a fair challenge. A situation where the Igbos are using mafia style protection racketeering to dominate and intimidate the market is unacceptable

They must allows other Nigerians access to their market in a level playing field. The main markets, like Ariaria, Onitsha, not some nonentities roadside gatherings

Massob must be disbanded. The igbos are the only ethnic group in Nigeria with a major organisation set up for the disintegration of Nigeria. Arewa youths - are fighting for political emancipation and development of the north. OPC - Yoruba language and development. MEND - resource control and environment.

Only Massob wants to break up Nigeria. The organisation is well established in Igbos state with a clandistine backing of the state Governors, who are giving it moral and financial support. Even that shameless old fool who call himself Ojukwu is a supporter. Its hypocritical and disheartening that some Igbos on the forum will claim patriotism only to go back home and back Massob.

Igbo must understand you cannot have Massob and the presidency, the two cannot go hand in hand, one must give way.

Afaukwu wrote

The question is are you sure Igbos REALLY need the presidency of Nigeria? It will make no difference to them if an Igbo is the president, just like Obj and all the Almajiri presidents from the North did not positively affect the lives of Yoruba and Northerners, respectively. I will rather that Igbos concentrate on building up and developing their infrastructure and human capital than seeking to rule a dead and soon-to-be-buried piece of space called Nigeria.

I don't understand you, sometime you give a mixed signal. Like the typical spare part dealer, you cant trust him and don't know where he stand. But you are sure all road leads towards ego , without conscience.

I notice in your current postings you've been trying to prove that igbos are accommodating and allowing other Nigerians access to their markets. For your information its all mumbo jumbo and amount to nothing, most are rare and exceptional circumstances , that does not reflect the general view.

The question is are you sure Igbos REALLY need the presidency of Nigeria?

Yes they need, they want it, they cry for it, plead for it and are ready to die for it. but,

Youngies wrote

@Billymuse
We are now on the 6th page of this thread and all you have is conjectures, hearsays, baseless rumours, idle talks and the stereotypes of the worst kind.  You have absolutely no proof of anything. I guess you must be having a good laugh at your tomfoolery

Some people have eyes , but cannot see
they have ears but cannot hear
They can read but cannot understand

That the Igbos dominate Nigerian markets have already been established, the issue is the methodology. Many Nigerians believe they are using an unfair methods. The argument that the Igbos are hardworking, while all other Nigerians are lazy is baseless and insulting. Its like the typical argument among biologist; nature vs nurture