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Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 11:19pm On Sep 11, 2021
Cyriacusifeco:


When the facts change, I change my mind. The facts changed for APR the moment they were asked to return all unclaimed dividends. Before then, I reasoned that those unclaimed dividends would keep mounting up until the news came. This was the moment the growth potential was killed.

Currently, the driving force behind UCAP lies in its ability to generate cash in the form of managed funds. As long as these funds keep growing, together with good discipline on operating cost, the EPS will likewise head north and as EPS heads north, the share price will follow suit. The psychological tendency for Mr Market to act irrationally will of course suffice occasionally. And so there would always be hiccups as we saw some time in January when it was battered to N1.05. But yes, over a long period of time, stock prices will always reflect intrinsic value.

I have always believed that one does not need too many Ideas to succeed in the stock market. It's too difficult to find a good business at its infancy and once I come across one, I load up and sit on my ass. Some ogas here make more money even while snoring. Making too many decisions day in day out exposes one to error!!. The brain isn't much adapted to function that way. I had to port the moment I got the news and since then, my life has never been the same. Can't still believe that some years back, this coy currently at 2.40 gave a right issue at N0.90 per share. It's a game changer. But yes, no tree grows to the sky.

DISCLAIMER: Never a buy or sell recommendation. We all know that I have often been wrong. And this may not be an exception. DO YOUR DD!! It's your money dear...


"Market prices for stocks fluctuate at great amplitudes around intrinsic value but, over the long term, intrinsic value is virtually always reflected at some point in market price.” - Warren

It took 5 years since I made this post in 2016 for Mr. Market to respond to intrinsic value. And yes, the same principle governs long term stock investing anywhere.

7 Likes 2 Shares

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 4:18pm On Mar 10, 2020
dinyelutochukwu:
My fingers are really itching me to buy this zenith at N13.05
I have a funny feeling that it won’t be available at this price tomorrow.

The best strategy is not to time the market. Many people get it wrong when they try to use a certain fixed amount of money to build a billion dollar portfolio within the stock market. In that way, you will be forced to take too many decisions that would neutralise your efforts. I think the best strategy is to create a positive cashflow elsewhere that would be steadily deployed consistently into high quality businesses at good prices over time as opportunities present at different times irrespective of market mood.

If you get it wrong at any entry point, positive cash flows would help correct the wrong provided you're sure of the business you are buying into. Risk comes if you do not know what you are doing.

Even the Oracle of Omaha does not know what stock prices would be tomorrow. In fact, cashflows from the dying business and insurance saved Berkshire Hathaway and helped it diversify into Sees' candies and other good quality businesses. Birkshire itself is a bad business bought by Mr. Buffet the greatest investor of the 20th century (awarded by me grin)with a substantial portion of his net worth sunk into a dying textile business without his knowledge.

Anyone who claims to correctly predict prices does so by mere luck. Let's Walk down to some 5-6years back using one stock I liked. Ucap traded at a low of N1.05 and has since been paying dividends. It also offered some rights issue at 0.90k at one point. I didn't catch it at the time but bought at an average of N1.50 then. It later traded at around N2.40. Compounding at the rate of 20-30% dividend yield by deploying dividends to buy more holdings till date already did wonders even as prices remained unchanged. Only one smart move can send you home happily ever after. You don't need too many opportunities to make home runs.

I often hear people lament that the NSE isn't a place for long term investment. They would go on to cite many toxic businesses whose fundamentals are obviously rat poison to buttress their point. Some mention those with solid footage but that traded at ridiculously high prices. But times over, it's been proven all over the world that over time, money would always chase opportunities, however bad the market or global economy may be.

Take this coy for example, although prices didn't change much from that time of purchase, portfolio holdings aren't the same anymore. I took attention away from the NSE for some time to build other cashflow measures (now a doctor grin and happily building a company for Nigeria). Today, here we are... Mr. Market is at it again. There's a little difference though. Our businesses have been creating value ever since till date. They are much larger cows to booth. For example, the Zenith bank of some years back isn't the Zenith I'm seeing today. Dangote crossed some new profit and revenue highs, Nascon, Nestle, Okomu, CSCS, and so many others. They are much bigger in terms of value created. Don't be surprised if these businesses do not get to the lows of those years. I saw Zenith around N8. If history repeats itself, it becomes more reasons for us to smile if we aren't near retirement.

Dangote announced his share buyback program. The first I have heard since joining NSE. I love news like it. I will sit back and watch him increase my stake at lower prices.

I have watched my portfolio sink 50% in red in times past. Most times, It doesn't always mean I'm wrong. We shall look back many years from now and be amazed at the opportunities of these days.

God Bless Nigeria.

15 Likes 2 Shares

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 4:30pm On Mar 05, 2020
rebekah2011:
Should an investor in Zenith bank or Gtbank be disturbed when the prices keep dropping or this should spur him or her to buy more knowing fully well that the banks have been performing better year on year. I have been looking at Dangote cement for a while now, the latest results is not that encouraging as many indicators of the company's results did not make me excited but at N100 / N120 it will be too good for me to ignore. Ditto with MTN at any price below N100 will be a good entry price. Whenever I achieve (100% gains) if I am able to, in any of these company's. I will book my capital and find other opportunities around the investment space. Should I also look at the prices every day? Yes, I do and do I read the financials? Yes I do but not as much as I will want to because my holdings in them have not yet reached 10% or 5%. Please monitor your investments oooo.

Been buying them at N149/N150. Paused when it climbed to N170.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 3:53am On Mar 05, 2020
Chibuking81:
@ Peterich since you know that all stock can possibly go down, why are you still participating in stock business? You would have allowed those with interest to keeping on investing, remember one of the slogans, never invest what you can't afford to lose. If you are seen as audio eps the Zenith bank and GTB bank at #19+ and #24+ , with #2.80 kobo final dividend each from their EPS of #6 +. Which an investors who invested in them can recover his initial capital on or before 10 years.
That mean you have turn NSE to gambling ground, equivalent to nairabet. As far as am concern NSE is for investors, jijo always get their hands burnt once there is major bear. And most of them withdraw their money without coming back again.
But investors who keep on investing certain amount monthly from his/her salary or proceeds from his/her business will never regret investing, because irrespective of rise and fall he keep on investing in a particular company, as long as that company keep on releasing good result with good dividend, Ucap, afriprudent, Vitafoam , investors will get back their initial capital within 7/8 years, and 4/5 years on some of the shares they bought lower before the increase in price.

I Like to value banks based on their dividend yield numbers. It's difficult to ascertain the impact of the retained part of their earnings to business growth say 5-10 years if they are expected to maintain or grow their deposit books over time.

And so to keep things simple and to have a margin of safety, I simply regard those retained earnings as 'not for me' while banking on the cashflows from regular dividends.

It sounds crazy but that's how I can sleep peacefully well at night knowing that my funds are in safe hands and if they remain solvent enough, my capital through the effects of compounding will be handed back to me on a yearly basis...forever.

Any additional pricing in valuation from Mr. market becomes an icing over the cake or better still, Parte after Parte grin

3 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 4:17am On Feb 29, 2020
emmanuelewumi:
If you don't have the temperament to start a business, have a flair for Investment, get enough knowledge, information and education about either the stock market or real estate.
Manage your emotions and be focused, invest in fundamentally sound businesses that are growing their earnings and have honest management. When you make good money from the stock market, always diversify into real estate, money market fund or bonds. Invest for cash flow from your investments. Unless you have taken very good care of your personal finances, do not use borrowed funds for stock market investments.
If you are consistent, you will do far better than the average Nigerian. You will be in the top 5 percentile of the population as per financial freedom

I was just passing by but couldn't help stoping to applaud the ever increasing wisdom from this guy. In a single piece, he nailed the fundamental principles to financial freedom, made a public spectacle of them for all that truly cared to look up to and be saved! grin grin grin

Nice one Pa Emma, keep the wisdom flowing! Many Greetings to all my brothers and sisters in the lord. It's nice being part of this family!

6 Likes 1 Share

Business To Business / Re: Newly Found Shipping Agent For China Importers - Tested And Proven by Cyriacusifeco: 4:38am On May 21, 2019
GreenAirCargo:
You can send your goods to our china office

SG--GreenAir 18106578805 - phone number
浙江省杭州市西湖区, 留下街道留和路56号中讯大厦605

Zip Code:310000

We can also handle procurement, visit our website greenairbuy.com.ng to enter orders... Or send orders to 08153394102 or 08083540579 on WhatsApp for processing.




Have a lovely day...





Sir, I'm still waiting to hear from you. You haven't updated me either.
Business To Business / Re: Newly Found Shipping Agent For China Importers - Tested And Proven by Cyriacusifeco: 8:07am On Mar 06, 2019
Please Help.

How likely would Chinese Customs seize goods imported from their country?

My agent couldn't deliver the goods I purchased and paid for saying that it was seized at the Chinese airport.

After more than two months of waiting, I decided to contact my suppliers to know if they have had similar experiences but they said know that they have been shipping the same item for years with no problems and don't think it's the fact.

This is strange to me because it's been years since I started importation and having come close to hearing a thing like this.

If anyone has had this experience, please do share and let me know the way forward. Items are certainly not contraband. What could be the reason for the confiscation according to the agent?

Please note that I have just shipped the same item with a different agent and it came in within one week.
Business / Re: ➜ ➜ ➜Currency/E-currency Market Deals➜ ➜ ➜ by Cyriacusifeco: 3:08pm On May 11, 2017
cmoney22222:
2000 paypal needed or well fargo cash dep needed asap.. quote me

I've got some.
Business / Re: ➜ ➜ ➜Currency/E-currency Market Deals➜ ➜ ➜ by Cyriacusifeco: 9:30pm On Jan 06, 2017
3RNEST:
Skrill needed urgently... WhatsApp me...

Thank you very much.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 4:10pm On Oct 28, 2016
Coolcash1:
TOooooooootaal... grin grin...I am loving it! At times I laugh when I see some people here wasting their time, money and effort on bank and worthless insurance stocks when quality ones are staring at them in their faces...you guys should grow up and channel your strength to valuable and real stocks like this....In short, leave ponmo chop meat..... grin cool

Exactly!!!...it's not a rocket science to pick good stocks. The problem is that good stocks are sometimes too quiet to be loved. They're usually neglected by market participants.

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 8:47pm On Sep 25, 2016
currentprice:


Thank you boss for your good work,,,,when ever i needed report or information i check your profile/previous post and it wouldn't take long b4 i get it. before i use to check needed report/information on SMN but SMN is dead grin

bros. Total recorded new high,,, my portfolio increased by +4.xx% today


@CURRENTPRICE, YOU are a smart investor.

I'm convinced that the market is greatly inefficient going by the happenings around the stock of Total Nigeria plc. Some time in April this year, 2016. Total plc released its first quarter result and showed an obvious growth in business value. This obvious increment in business value could as well be interpreted in my opinion, as the result of the deregulation of the downstream sector of the petroleum industry, or for some other reasons behind the sudden upsurge in value. Whatever the reason might be, the efficient market hypothesis is expected to have precisely reflected this change in value with an appropriate valuation adjustment to the prevailing market price of the stock. Guess what happened, it took the market completely about six months to at least react to this change. This has a message for the retail investor. The underlying value of businesses could go for even longer periods without being recognized. The market in other words, is not efficient in my opinion. One could easily call to mind, what happened to Ucap when it traded around N1.50 per share. Behaviors such as this from a system filled with very smart people further supports the arguments of the super investors of the Graham and Doddsville. I have at some point in my investment journey, found how the society at times, give away obvious business value to discerning investors who have adopted the value approach towards investment decisions. And trust me, a value approach to picking stocks really works in Nse. Prospering in this business of buying businesses isn't a rocket science. The two weapons of variables to hold are simply 'price and value '.

A value investor approach to the securities market will surely always favor the intelligent investor.

Disclaimer: This is never an investment advice. It is solely my opinion.

5 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 10:13am On Jul 29, 2016
feelamong:


Bros take another look at the Financials of this coy...

look at the Liabilities side..Nothing has changed much. Their Customers' deposits (which represents Dividend, return monies and other interests re
ceived from clients but yet to be claimed) actually increased to 12,178,379 in H2 2016 from 11,331,469 in H2 2015.

In fact in particular the Unclaimed dividends increased from 10,552,290 in H2 2015 to 11, 448,771 in H2 2016

what actually hit them hard was their investments income from Treasury Bills. This nose dived from 426,677 in 2015 to 90,990 now!

We all also know how low the TB rates have been since beginning of the year until recently. Rates dropped to as low as 3 -5% earlier in the year. As we speak these rates are now as high as 14 - 17 %.

I still think they will turn this Investment Income figures around by year end. (Hoping that they did not do long tenor investments earlier in the year)

The share price will definitely drop...but i want to advise those in it not to panic and sell..

for those wishing to increase their stake...there is no better time than now! cheesy

Disclosure: I have 2 units of this stock in my Portfolio

I mean the GROWTH POTENTIAL not the reason behind the drop in earnings. And in the voice of Megainvest, the GROWTH ENGINE. They've got just 12 months to hold those unclaimed dividends after which they've got to return them. Consequently, Assets base will remain nearly flat. Treasury bills rate should have affected UCAP in the same time period but they were able to offset it with increased cash from managed funds.

But no matter what, it's neither a buy nor a sell signal. It's only my opinion and when the facts change, I change my mind.

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 11:32pm On Jul 28, 2016
feelamong:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/14449_AFRICA_PRUDENTIAL_Q2_JUNE_2016_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2016.pdf

These guys need to rejig their Investment team...

OK..the first 3 - 4 months of the year had very poor rates on Treasury Bills

We should expect a lot better now as the rates on Tbills are on the high

When the facts change, I change my mind. The facts changed for APR the moment they were asked to return all unclaimed dividends. Before then, I reasoned that those unclaimed dividends would keep mounting until the news came. This was the moment the growth potential was killed. Currently, the driving force behind UCAP is its ability to generate cash in the form of managed funds. As long as these funds keep growing, together with good discipline on operating cost, the EPS will likewise head north and as EPS heads north, likewise the share price. The psychological tendency for Mr Market to act irrationally will of course often suffice. And so there would always be hiccups as we saw some time in January when it was battered to N1.05. But yes, over a long period of time, stock prices will always reflect intrinsic value. I have always believed that one does not need too many Ideas to succeed in the stock market. It's too difficult to find a good business at its infancy and once I come across one, I load up and sit on my ass. Some ogas here make more money even while snoring. Making too many decisions day in day out exposes one to error!!. The brain isn't much adapted to function that way. I had to port the moment I got the news and since then, my life has never been the same. Can't still believe that some years back, this coy currently at 2.40 gave a right issue at N0.90 per share. It's a game changer. But yes, no tree grows to the sky.

DISCLAIMER: Never a buy or sell recommendation. We all know that I have often been wrong. And this may not be an exception. DO YOUR DD!! It's your money dear...

13 Likes 3 Shares

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 10:49pm On Jul 21, 2016
locodemy:


True true ......Greed is not good.......i didnt sell at #8.05 because all indications were pointing towards #10.if you can remember,oando was on full bid even at 8.05 until the bias announcement was made.......i got 500,000 units of oando at 5.00 before it's rally.....i dont have even 1% gain again..........anyway i dont need to tell this story again......
THE DAY I WILL SELL OANDO,I WILL HATE IT
MORE THAN PETERICHY......I SWEAR.....UNLESS IT GETS TO KM10 BEFORE I SELL.






You must not get it back the way you lost it. Dust your shirts and move on. If you can't hold a stock for ten years down the line, don't even think about holding it for ten minutes.There are lots of wonderful stocks out there and here presents another opportunity.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 10:47pm On Jul 21, 2016
"This kind of statements always come from people whose fingers are well burnt by a particular stock.i guess oando has dealt with you guys........For me o.....i am enjoying oando because i entered at a right time.hurray! oando has returned to profitability and there is no going back........expect good half year result that will drive the stock above #10"





By continuing to speculate on companies with questionable characters and corporate governance, you are not only dancing in a room which the clock has no hands but also participating in the dance of spirits.

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 10:44pm On Jul 21, 2016
For every seller there is a buyer and the future will prove one of them to have made a mistake.

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 12:00pm On Jul 02, 2016
“The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.“ -Buffet's letter to shareholders 2000.

By continuing to speculate on companies with questionable characters and corporate governance, you are not only dancing in a room which the clock has no hands but also participating in the dance of spirits.

15 Likes 5 Shares

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 11:46am On Jul 02, 2016
locodemy:


This kind of statements always come from people whose fingers are well burnt by a particular stock.i guess oando has dealt with you guys........For me o.....i am enjoying oando because i entered at a right time.hurray! oando has returned to profitability and there is no going back........expect good half year result that will drive the stock above #10.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 2:03pm On Dec 12, 2015
Ships will sail around the world but the flat earth society will flourish. I have often wondered about the risk in buying one naira bill for fifty kobo. The Nigerian stock exchange has existed for over 50 years in our country, yet people shy away from the all important opportunity in our country's businesses by way of the stock market. To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail. The perverse human characteristics that is often bent on making simple things look difficult has again turned a basic advantage into a difficult situation. Our treasure land is now mistaken for an Alice in wonder land. Investing is all about putting out N1.00 today to get N2.00 tomorrow at a decent rate of return. If investors could simply focus on value of businesses and forget about the daily movement of stock prices, we wouldn't be hearing the noise we are witnessing today. The fearful have since forgotten that money is meant to flow towards opportunity and there is an abundance of that in Nigeria. I have searched through the market and have seen vast number of opportunities prevalent in our investment terrain. All I could say is 'God bless Nigeria'. Come to think of it, the all share index has advanced from 100 in 1984 to over 27,000 today. Even a novice who knows nothing about stocks but simply bought a low cost index if any exists, could make a fortune for himself. The prophets of doom have neglected the all important factor that is certain, that no matter how serene today might be for our country, Nigeria's potential is far from being exhausted. They could go ahead and pin point countless number of risks associated with investing in Nigeria, but they must not forget that our country's businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services needed by her citizens. Metaphorically speaking, these commercial cows will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of milk to boot. Think Firstbank that is over a century old, which has grown shareholders value from 27billion in 2003 to over 500billion in 2015. Not counting the dividends received by its shareholders over this period. Think Dangote cement, Nestle Nigeria plc, 7up bottling company, Zenith bank plc, Gtbank, Nascon, and countless other wonderful businesses listed on the exchange. They will continue to deliver. You must not forget that no matter how low their stock prices may fluctuate, that the billions delivered annually by these wonderful businesses will always go to its owners. Hundred years from now, people will remain banked, they will continue to construct buildings and of course, they will eat and drink!. In the end, these businesses will continue to ever increase the fortunes of its shareholders. what counts in investing is what you pay for a business -through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market - and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two. There is nothing risky in buying a N600 billion business for less than N200 billion as it is for Firstbank today. Commentators often talk of “great uncertainty.” But think back, for example, to December 26-27, 1851, 1967 to January 15, 1970, the economic crisis of 1981 and June 12, 1993. The fact remains that tomorrow is always uncertain. Don’t let that reality spook you. I have always heard about the terrifying problems facing Nigeria. But It is also worthy to note that our GDP has increased to an astonishing $500 billion from $34 million in 1992. Per capita income has also grown from $395 in 1992 to $1097.97 in 2013. The prophets of doom have overlooked the all-important factor that is certain: Businesses will always prosper and the Nigerian system for unleashing that prosperity –a system that has worked wonders for over half a century despite frequent interruptions for recessions and even a Civil War–remains alive and effective. We are not natively smarter than we were when our country was founded nor do we work harder. But look around you and see a world beyond the dreams of any colonial citizen. Now, as in 1851, 1967, 1981 and 1993, Nigeria's best days lie ahead. The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd. Successful Investing takes time,discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women Pregnant. Never the less, fluctuations are inevitable in the securities market and will continue to be so. What counts is your long term average performance. Get on board and do your due diligence. Remember you don't need a 150 IQ to invest successfully. There is one thing that has always proven to be correct....no one can successfully time the market over an extended period of time. Take for an example, the buyer of FBNH at N10 is on value likewise the buyer at N4 and this counts for countless number of other businesses in our country. The greatest variable now in FBNH at its current price is survival. How many can bet on its survival? But you must know...there are no too big to fail businesses. There is nothing impossible for Mr. Market. Time is very valuable for an investor and we are taking too long for a start. God bless Nigeria.


....references are made in Buffet's voice.



DISCLAIMER: This is not a buy recommendation. In fact, I have no interest in some of the businesses mentioned above. I have often been wrong in the past and will probably be. Some of the businesses mentioned in the post above are grossly overvalued when compared to value to a private owner. Do your due diligence.

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Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 2:44am On Oct 15, 2015
Hello BNSITL, There is this mental model I learnt from Safal Niveshak... It is called CONTRAST-MISREACTION TENDENCY. It states that Small incremental changes tend to go unnoticed…If you put a frog in hot boiling water, he will instantly leap out of the pan and be never seen again. But, if you put a frog in a pan with room temperature water and slowly turn up the heat, he wouldn’t be able to tell the tiny incremental changes. He will boil and die.

Businesses die just like the boiling frog. Cognition, misled by tiny changes involving low contrast, will often miss a trend that is destiny.When a man’s steps are consecutively taken toward disaster with each step being very small, the brain’s Contrast-Misreaction Tendency will often let the man go too far toward disaster to be able to avoid it. This happens because each step presents so small a contrast from his present position.
Sometimes it is the small, gradual, invisible changes that harm us the most. Example, we get blind gradually without noticing it.

As we have seen contrast is a two sided sword, and its ill effects show up in investing also.
You see, contrasts may blind us to change until it’s too late. For example, we often don’t notice the bad behaviour of others (like we ignore “small” accounting manipulations at companies)
if it goes sour gradually over time. Often we see reality as constant, although it gradually changes.

Similarly, we fail to notice how our money disappears. It constantly loses its value, but we do not notice because inflation happens over time. If it were imposed on us in the form of a brutal tax (and basically that’s what it is), we would be outraged.
Another area where CMT can harm is our fixation on the stock price. When you are analysing a business, it becomes extremely hard to overcome the temptation to ignore the past stock price trends. If a stock has risen recently, our subconscious screams that the stock has become expensive. A recent fall in price
triggers the CMT which convinces us that the stock has become cheaper.
Chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken. And so my little advice.

When you improve a little each day, eventually big things occur … Don’t look for big, quick improvement. Seek the small improvement one day at a time. That’s the only way it happens and when it happens, it lasts. And at the same time don’t forget to make use of it for creating good habits.

Finally, don't forget to take a closer look at your portfolio and notice how fundamentals of some of your businesses might be deteriorating. Don't boil with your businesses.
Take care and keep learning.

4 Likes

Investment / Re: Stock Performance From 2000/2003 To Date by Cyriacusifeco: 2:12am On Sep 17, 2015
manie:
It will be good for the company to do away with the current holding structure. The performance of the company the management of Onasanya is quite diappointing. Thank God Onasanya is forced to resign and a number of directors will go with him at the end of the year. The cost of mainting the top management of the bank is about the highest in the industry. The company is also highly exposed to the Oil and Gas sector. Considering all the problems facing the company, I am confident that FBNH has seen her worst days. I am sure that the new team that will pilot the affairs of the company come January 2016 will take the company to great heights. The company may be having problem, but I think the current price is good and could be better.

I agree with you... FBNH does not need much growth at the moment to deliver value to its shareholders, only efficiency. It is already doing huge on gross earnings!! Management is the major problem. But do you think institutional imperative will not continue to work considering that FBN has been on this path for as far back as 2003 to date ?. Thier efficiency has been on this level for long even when these current managements were not yet in place. I think there is an old long tradition of this wastage of shareholders' value i.e when compared to the efficiency of GTBank.

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 12:54am On Sep 17, 2015
Agbalowomeri:
UBA no wan gree come back to bus stop o. We keep waiting

Oga Agba sir, hope you won't pass your trading limit of just four trades per year- Two for buy and Two for sell.
Investment / Re: Stock Performance From 2000/2003 To Date by Cyriacusifeco: 12:31am On Sep 17, 2015
Ronkuns:
@Manie, do you consider the ongoing merger of some Flourmills subsidiaries a good prospect for their stock price? The price of their shares has been trending southward for a while now. Same goes for CADBURY. In view of your advice that learners like us should consider underpriced (as opposed to low priced) stocks, do you consider Flourmills and Cadbury undervalued at their current prices? Thanks for your guide.


From my own little understanding of flourmills, i think the business has got some outstanding products with good quality as the main competitive advantage. At least the woman frying 'kpof-kpof' on the street can easily tell the difference between golden penny flour and Dangote flour. It is just a customer's choice. Even thier golden penny spaghetti and a whole range of other ventures as well. But looking at their balance sheet, you will be a bit disappointed as i think, they are heavily laden with fixed assets or machineries, making their cost to be of a fixed kind without much variables. one can notice this whenever there is a slight fall in revenue. Profits are usually shaved so severely that there is no proportional reduction in profits as there are in revenue and it is simply the nature of the business they are into. Also, because of its asset intensive nature, you will find out that most or all of their free cashflow goes for capital expenditures, leaving little or nothing for business growth or dividend pay out to shareholders. You will understand this better when you compare its business with that of CAp PLC !!!. I mean, they can't just help it even with superior management team. Even at times, their free cashflow is usually not enough to take care of these capital expenditures! Hence, i wasn't surprised to see them pile layers upon layers of debt on the balance sheet. The same thing happens to Transcorp at the moment. And i don't know why market should be giving such high valuations to capital intensive businesses like these. I don't know how far this will continue, but my simple advice is for you to look for simpler businesses for now. And you must not forget to be price disciplined as even a wonderful business that is bought at a bloated price must surely bring about poor results. Take Nestle as an example. Do your due dilligence. If you are also very observant to the past bussiness performances of the stocks previously outlined by manie, you will notice that you don't need so many good ideas to retire. You need just few good ideas to achieve your financial dreams. Just try to identify wonderful businesses at fair prices. I dont know about cadbury for now.

3 Likes 1 Share

Investment / Re: Stock Performance From 2000/2003 To Date by Cyriacusifeco: 3:10pm On Sep 11, 2015
manie:



Unfortunately I have sold all my Nestle shares, to buy more of FBN shares at between N18.50 and N20.00k. Nestle should be a good stock for anybody that can get it for less than N800. I sold mine when it got to N800 and above.


What's your thought on FBNH now at this price level and business performance. I think FBNH is not the right machine. Speaking in respect to their business performance currently.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 8:52pm On Sep 10, 2015
myjoy08:
Spanish Companies Await President Buhari’s Cabinet For More Investment...

http://leadership.ng/business/459978/spanish-companies-await-president-buharis-cabinet-for-more-investment


Well, life goes on after JP Morgan Index bullshit grin

But why must they wait for CABINETS before seeking value!!!....very surprising.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 8:31pm On Sep 10, 2015
Manonamission:


When you see this drink at a store near you, remember your investment in Transcorp and quench your thirst cheesy cheesy grin cheesy

ALL WE NEED IS A POSITIVE FREE CASHFLOW FROM TRANSCORP. WE DON'T NEED NEWS. cool cool cool
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 11:50am On Sep 05, 2015
angelo82:


I believe FBNH will do something.........These rivalry and style of doing things has been going on for long.............Lets wait and see...............




FBNH is strictly for its employees and not its shareholders. It has been growing in gross earnings for the past few years but non of this has been deemed fit by management to pass on to owners. I wasn't surprised when management promptly declared that they had to keep up with the industry average on employee emoluments citing that they needed to keep the best talents. One comes to wonder if the management in peers like GTbank, Zenith or even Stanbic are all Dumbs. If so, then dumbs should better start running companies. I am sure these companies also take care of their employees, but they have their shareholders at heart. The rivalry and style of doing things you spoke about is only when it comes to management enumeration and employee pay packages. FBNH is way in the dark when it comes to efficiency. It is expected that the economies of scale it enjoys greatly improve its effeciency and access to cheap funds. This, nevertheless is exactly what it gets. But management pockets them all. CAN SOMEBODY PLEASE TELL THESE PEOPLE TO GIVE US OUR OWN SHARE!!!.

3 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 2:09am On Sep 03, 2015
bigass:
PE ratio

FO 121.17
SEPLAT 2.3



Mind you SEPLAT is on a tax break that could be revoked any time.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 2:05am On Sep 03, 2015
zik4ever:

Are Seplat shares over-valued? Or just under-valued by the market?



A firm cannot be buying back their own shares by distributing shares to their employees. Rather think stock options.
Investment / Re: Stock Performance From 2000/2003 To Date by Cyriacusifeco: 2:46pm On Aug 31, 2015
manie:
This is the performance of First Bank from 2000 to date.

100k will buy 20,000 units of FBN shares in 2000.


Year Bonus Units
2000 20,000
2001 1 for 4 25,000
2002 1 for 5 30,000
2003 1 for 6 35,000
2004 1 for 8 39,375
2005 1 for 4 49,218
2006 1 for 25 5[b]1,186 ( Special distribution)[/b]
2006 1 for 1 102,372
2007 1 for 6 119,433
2008 1 for 4 149,291
2009 1 for 6 174,171
2010 1 for 8 195,000 units


Valued at over N3.8 million Naira








Nice one bro...keep it up

3 Likes 1 Share

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 2:32am On Jun 28, 2015
jp130:
nse de deal wit pple

So much noise about falling stock prices but yet, there are no real bargains in the so much talked about free fall. It is quiet understandable that the NSE is a small market and so the few wonderful businesses on the platform end up attracting lots of cash that they end up overvalued. It is not uncommon after watching a stock trade at a high multiple for years to conclude that such is the right price for such businesses. If one recognises the fact that a stock could remain overvalued for years when all the players are waiting to leave just at the midnight, then we will understand what it means to focus on the playing field and not on the score board. Take nestle as an example, I dont know why on earth I should pay N1000 for N25 when I can get a sure N0.35 for N3 somewhere else. I strongly believe that money is a commodity and that money is money. I also understand that investors value N1 from a franchise far more than N1 from a business. But sooner or later, investors overdo things and eventually abuse it. We are already seeing that in many of our businesses. I am not in anyway against the attractiveness of Nestle as an investment, but if given the opportunity, I will short nestle even though I dont enjoy shorting stocks. Overall, given the general decline inherent in the bourse at the moment, there are no real bargains for the investor interested in part ownership of wonderful businesses except in the financial subsector. I pray that opportunities present itself for all to profit from. I strongly pray for further decline in the prices of wonderful businesses. However, in case you are already seeing one of such businesses at the moment, dont hesitate to let me know. You know we are BNSITL.

Disclaimer: This is strictly my own opinion and should not be taken as an investment advice. You are the CEO of your portfolio.

7 Likes 2 Shares

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Cyriacusifeco: 7:02pm On Jun 24, 2015
mercylicious:


Cyriacus, are u related to zebrudaya okorigwe nwodo alias 4.30?
@ house, has d rule taken effect? Plz let's know the % of afriprud profit that is due to unclaimed div.


No Sister Mercy, I'm of the lord like the name depicts, that is why I have recognised with brothers and sisters of like minds.

IMO, I think this might place some pressure on profits in the nearest future considering the % of assets made up of unclaimed dividends on the balance sheet. Strictly my opinion.

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