₦airaland Forum

Lord Varys: Koro had about 700 000 to Fashola's 1.2 million if I remember properly, that wasn't so bad, only in 2011 when PDP fielded a weak Dosunmu as Koro felt he had no chance against fashola were they thrashed

This was what i saw somewhere. Not sure of the validity


In 2007: Fashola (AC) - 828,484 Obanikoro (PDP) - 389,088; Agbaje (DPA) - 114,557 Pedro (LP) - 29,826

jmaine: The followership of Fashola has evaporated in recent times because of Tinubu baggage.

You still base your claims on the assumption that a Yoruba man will be chosen as the VP. You are not sure yet bruv.

When you tell the people that the PDP doesn't care for them, they will simply point your rescue visit to OBJ, ATIKU et al., and also point to the notable PDP defectors and accuse you all of deceit and hypocrisy

When Fashola was at his peak support was Tinubu baggage not there? When ACN won Osun and Ekiti was Tinubu baggage not there? When ACN won Oyo and Ogun was Tinubu baggage not there?

Its the non Yorubas that care more about The so called Tinbu baggage. Tinubu baggage, hasnt stopped his party for almost 16yrs in Lagos, they have even added 4 more states to it. Yet all we hear is Tinubu baggage , Alphabeta,

cramjones: Dayokanu - He is partially right, Fashola right now is the best candidate, however, we have to find out how well it will go down with others. Knowing fully well that Nigerians care less about performance, rather majority are ethnically biased! We are not ruling out Fashola, but PDP plays ethnic cards and religious sentiments to its zenith. Let's wait and see. Fashola is a very well capable, but his support will be based on our on going research on the feasibility of his candidature and success by world class political consulting group (not mentioning the name here)

If I am one of the APC strategist Fashola is definitely on that ticket. fasholas name on the ticket guarantees 6 SW states confirmed.

if the northern candidate can deliver their 13 states plus the bonus APC get from the middle belt then its a cakewalk

There is no ethno religious card that would make a Yoruba man vote for an outsider against his own popular candidate. MKO was on a Moslem moslem ticket and swept all Yoruba states

I am from one of the most xtian dominated towns in the SW and we dont care who is who.
Osun with almost 50% Moslem population was ruled by a Xtian-xtian ticket when Oyinlola-Obada ruled no one shouted religion

Ondo State is about 80% xtian, MKO won almost 80% of the votes there. Abdulrahman Segun Mimiko a Moslem is the curent governor

A Yoruba man cares about his tribe before his religion.

EVery Yoruba has both religion in their family, Tinubu and fashola are married to practising xtians, Aregbesolas siblings are xtians

SUBMARINE: [color=#006600][/color] So everybody who lives in these states are indigenes of the state. So fall inhabitants of Lagos are Yorubas.

And is every inhabitant of Bayelsa and Eboyi from those state?

jmaine: Brother Dayo, the absence of Funsho Williams and the terrible image of Koro gave Fashola the victory. In the same manner GEJ trounced Buhari cos he was the lesser evil.

You don't win a stolen mandate without winning the election , and winning the election against the giant PDP means you have to command impeccable followership. The most important part was winning the polls and Mimiko did that without a shred of Tinubu assistance.


Again , the Yorubas chose the ACN because it was a viable alternative and not because of Tinubu. The ACN owe a lot to Fashola first term performance which was the cardinal selling point of the party. But recent events has shown that campaign edge has been eroded.

There was no way Williams would even defeat AC that time Williams at the peak of PDP in the SW still lost to Tinubu in 2003.

Mimiko could have won the real election but without Tinubus support he would never win his mandate. Do you know how many politicians served a stolen mandate for 8yrs?

Tinubus calculation was to remove PDP first once you deal with the giant elephant everything is little.

Mimiko cant rival Tinubu in the SW, Mimikos support is outside Yorubaland. During his campaign how many prominent Yorubas do you see with him

Before Fasholas first term as at 2007 AC already won Osun and Ekiti through the polls and that had nothing to do with Fasholas performance

Lord Varys: Yet Koro still put up a strong performance then,he had about 40% of the cast votes then, that's the kind of ability the PDP has.......

Keep to facts I dont like lying to defend a point

Obanikoro lost all but one LGA in 2007

Lord Varys: Despite the Demonization Of PDP, they still trailed behind LP in Ondo, Despite their demonization they still manage to poll at least 35% in any SW election even when they lose.......
The 2015 presidential polls will not be determined by where you win but by how well you are able to perform in you opponent's strong bases, while GEJ can get an easy 35%-40% at worse in the SW , the APC will struggle to be seen in GEJ's strongholds, I'm a politician and I know how these things work, the PDP has a very effective election winning machinery that even at its weakest can still pull surprises,

The PDP of now has been decimated in the SW beyond repairs. The support of OBJ, Oyinlola etc they could count on before is now gone.

Politics is a game of numbers I told you earlier winning 100% of bayelsa is still inferior to winning 60% of Katsina

State counts I already see APC winning by adding 6 SW states to the 13 Northern ones plus Niger and Kwara.

Numbers wise I see APC winning since they control 7 of the 8 most populous states in Nigeria.

So what does Jonathan have going for it? Winning 100% of tiny states like Ebonyi, Bayelsa Abia, Cross River, Plateau cant help you because giants states like Kano, Lagos, Oyo Katsina, Bauchi, are ready to triple those Jonathan states

jmaine: Correction

The Presidential poll came before the Gubernatorial polls.

Still doesnt change the point. The same ppl who voted Buhari this week voted PDP the next week, SW:and the same ppl who voted PDP in presidential this week voted ACN next week

jmaine: Fashola at the head of the flag will cause a major pull, but a Fashola at the base may not yield the kind of impact you feel. Pastor Tunde Bakare clean image is a pointer

You are not even sure Fashola will be picked as any of the flag bearer. What if Fashola is not considered. ?

What happens to your believe ?

Bakare was not a politician and no one really cared about bakare aside from his church members Just like Fola Adeola

The followership of Fashola in the SW is one of the best next to Tinubu and not one I would expect the APC to pass up on

If Fashola isnt picked I expect an APC politician to be picked Kayode Fayemi, Adeniyi Adebayo are my top options

And with the APC backing they would still win the SW. No Yorubaman would see Fayemi on a ticket and vote a Jonathan Sambo that hold nothing for us.

One of the key points used by APC in the SW is that the current PDP doesnt care about us

Lord Varys: This is exactly the point I'm making,that the fact that the APC holds SW governorships might not necessarily translate into votes in the presidential elections for a northern candidate if there is no SW running mate, it will make be extremely difficult to galvanise support for a northern candidate, thank goodness APC leaders are looking beyond Buhari to people with less baggage like Tambuwal else they'll have found it difficult selling him to south westerners

And you think everyone in APC is daft enough to exclude Fashola one of their strongest candidate from the ticket at the expense of losing for someone like Rochas or Amaaechi who may not even win their LGA in a presidential election.

You think no one has sense in the whole APC to see this glaring fact or what are you saying?

You are hoping they pick Rochas just the same way APC would be hoping the PDP picks Peter Obi for Vice

jmaine: Corrections

1) Koro had a terrible image in Lagos just like Buhari has in the SW. And Lagosians went for the lesser evil.

A Funsho Williams would have decimated Fashola with ease

2) Mimiko always had a strong followership in Ondo, and he won his poll without Tinubu.

Tinubu only came in to assist during his legal battles to reclaim his stolen mandate

3) Most Yorubas hated the PDP because of their performance and not because a certain Tinubu was on the horizon.

As a matter of fact, the Tinubu factor was the main issue Ondo electorates had with the ACN

Fashola was a nobody in lagos politics yet won the election, People simply voted AC the party regardless of who the flagbearer was. that was why the ticket of AC was the most bitter battle.

Without Tinubus assistance in winning the stolen mandate how would he be able to rule? Or you think Agagu would just willingly relinquish the post?

EVen when the Yorubas hated PDP they still chose Tinubus party , they had the option of Afeniferes party but went with Tinubus or why didnt they return to voting the AD instead of Tinubus AC?

Lord Varys: No matter how one spins it, religion still remains a prime factor in politics in every region of nigeria 'the redeemed camp incident' to a large extent galvanised western christian voters for GEJ in 2011, it is this same religious factor that is inducing the agitation for a xtian governor in lagos in 2015 or that is responsible for the recurring clashes between christian leaders and aregbesola in Osun, I admit the SW is the most liberal part of nigeria as regards religion but its still a factor even the APC can't overlook, its why they won't also pick fashola to avoid a Muslim-Muslim ticket, I believe in competence , agnostic personally,but there are many ignorant nigerians who are easily swayed and any smart politician takes advantage of this, don't also underestimate the power of effective campaigning, GEJ's 2011 Campaign was the most effective nigeria had seen since Abiola's Hope 1993

Jonathan 2011 appeared effective because Yorubas were not interested. The ACN was more interested in winning the governorship in their region before trying for presidency and it can be seen from the half hearted attempts made.

Answer this question: Do you think any Yoruba person even Adeboye or oyedepo in their minds would vote Jonathan ticket over a Fashola ticket?

Yorubas dont care about religion, almost everyone in Yorubaland has a moslem family member, So they would tell you not to vote for your uncle because he is Moslem? but rather vote for Mr Jonathan from bayelsa because he is xtian?

Ngene-Ukwenu:
This is where you are getting it wrong, Governorship election is different from presidential election, they can unite to win the state elections, but when it comes to the presidential election it is another kettle of fish brother. I have not met any Hausa man who says he would vote Jonathan in 2015 just the same way i cannot lure my mother from not voting Jonathan.

Thats where they are getting it wrong. Its like saying because Edo is ACN everywhere we expect Jonathan to lose in Edo.

Thats basically wishful thinking and No APC memeber is that deluded, Even if Oshiomole vote in every booth in Edo he cant have more than 40% to APC in the presidential election

Note: In 2011 All Northern states voted PDP in Governorship, a week later all voted CPC in presidency, All SW voted ACN in governorship election a week later voted PDP for presidency

jmaine: Another excellent summation . . . . A lil propaganda jingles does wonders within a very short space.

So you think propaganda would make Yorubas vote against their beloved son Babatunde Fashola?

Let me see how PDP would tell people to vote Jonathan and Sambo over our son Babatunde fashola when he is campaigning in Yoruba language in Ibadan, Ado-Ekiti, Akure etc

Lord Varys: Buhari won't run most likely and most SW I know will vote GEJ ove Buhari everyday, Buhari's not popular in the SW



The APC would pick either an Amaechi Or an Okorocha as the running mate, this were the assurances that got them to decamp, the APC has to make concessions to the incoming PDP govs.....this will be their waterloo, if the APC was fielding a Fashola as the running mate to a Tambuwal, then I would have said there was cause to worry from GEJ but with a SW most likely not going to be the running mate,the region becomes more open

Maybe you should say thats what you and the PDP is hoping for.

A Buhari Fashola ticket is the winning one. Buhari without campaign finds swept all the Northern states in 2011.

A fashola on the ticket sweeps all SW states. Assurances of Okorocha and Amaechi would now supercede the common sense of winning election? What does Rochas and Amaechi bring in terms or electoral goodwill that would make them be given such concession? Or do you think they just distribute tickets around like Gala and pure water?

Lord Varys: @dayokanu, I reiterate that the SW does not vote in herd mentality like the rest of the country, each state has its own peculiar dynamics and as such individuals and not parties dominate the space, that's why a Mimiko in ondo is there, and a Jimi Agbaje is popular and fayose is strong in Ekiti, except Fashola is the APC's running mate which is unlikely, Jonathan will shock Tambuwal in the sW, south westerners remain intrinsically suspicious of a northern candidate,they'll rather stick to the devil they know plus you can never rule out the religious factor, Redeemed camp worked in 2011, what makes you think it can't work again

You said Yorubas dont do herd mentality, You can call it any name you want but from history Yorubas vote for any trusted party or leader, The candidate is secondary. How come they all voted AG, all voted UPN, All voted AD and all voted ACN at the same time

How many ppl knew Fashola in 2007 before voting him? Do you think ppl voted fashola or AC? How come ppl voted all the candidates AD presented in 1999? If AD had presented a goat in 1999 he would have won

Let me clear something here. Mimiko only became governor in Ondo because he allied with Tinbu and ACN to dislodge the big elephant in the room which was OBJ-Agagu. Without Tinubus support Mimiko would never have won in Ondo.

Secondly Most Yorubas dont want to hear PDP. Let Mimiko try and decamp to PDP and see him get booted out in a matter of weeks. Yorubas would rather vote for ANC of South Africa than vote PDP.

Which Redeemed camp factor? How come the redeemed camp factor didnt make the Moslem candidates lose governorship election in Oyo, Ogun, Osun and Lagos

SUBMARINE: In your mind you think SW XTIANS will be comfortable voting a Northern Muslim who they perceived as BH supporters.

These same SW xtians had no problems voting in MKO-Kingibe ticket even when the opponent was spreading runours that MKO sunk bibles in the ocean

These same SW xtians had no problems voting in Moslem governors in almost all their states even defeating xtian candidates like Akala, Oyinlola, Olurin

The SW xtians which I am one of dont care about your religious leanings. In Yorubaland all religion are alien to us, we are first and foremost Yorubas before Moslems or Xtians thats why I would rather support Aregbesola or Tinubu ahead of a non Yoruba xtian

jmaine: The same ABC calculation and extrapolation that was rendered useless in the REALITY SHOW of 2011

2011 It was Buhari alone. 2015 Its Buhari plus the ACN machinery of the SW plus a neutral OBJ, Atiku, IBB

Lord Varys: In 2011 GEJ won 23 states and the FCT , had 25% in 31 states,had 60% of cast vote...
In 2015 against a Tambuwal/Amaechi Candidature NB no fashola
I project GEJ to win all SE and SS states, Edo and Rivers included, quote me on this,that's 11 states with 90% to 10% margin
I project gEJ winning Ondo, Lagos narrowly, Oyo narrowly (If akala and ladoja work together for him) plus 40% in ekiti and ogun and 10% in Osun
In the MB, I project GEJ winning Plateau, Taraba,Benue,Kogi,Nasarawa(narrowly),narrowly losing Kwara, plus 30% in Southern Kaduna,Gombe that's 19 states plus FCT which is a PDP Bastion.....with landslide in the SS/SE, 70%MB and 50% SW +10% North, that's about 53-55% of valid votes

And why would APC pick Amaechi as running mate when he cant even deliver his home state?

is that what PDP is hoping APC does?

The APC would pick a Yoruba SW deputy maybe Fashola or Fayemi/Adeniyi Adebayo

So all those your permutations are trashed already

Its like APC hoping Jonathan would pick Peter Obi as his Vice president and basing calculations on that

Lord Varys: IBB is not exactly in opposition to GEJ, Obasanjo and atiku are but IBB is somewhat ambivalent, he wants his son 'mohammed babangida' to be the next niger state governor on the PDP platform and he still has the ears of the Villa thanks to NSA Dasuki and Colonel Umar and David Mark, IBB Boys who are in a working arrangement with Jonathan, I reiterate that GEJ will sweep the MB with the exception of niger, Kwara will hang in the balance because Of Saraki's defection but if Belgore crosses over to the PDP and with A sitting Senator Simeon ajibola and some others staying with GEJ....he could give the Saraki machinery a close bite there.....In Nasarawa, Al Makura has incurred the wrath of the Eggons alienating key allies in the APC including Eggon's fav son Solomon Ewuga, the PDP is more United with Doma and maku, note that the PDP has 19 of the 24 HOA members in this state and that GEJ secured 60% of nasarawa's vote in 2011...GEJ will just nick this state
In Adamawa, nyako is heavily unpopular and all the major politicians in the state are united under the PDP against him, even most of the state house of reps members and two of their senators chose to stay in the PDP due to personal issues with him, even the most influential politician in the opposition Boni Haruna has returned to the PDP to join Tukur,Bent,Dan Suleiman and others, expect Marwa and Gundiri to follow suit, Nyako was the a liability APC took, Kogi is firmly PDP, Wada and Smart Adeyemi are fiercely GEJ lotyalists,no problem here as always, same with Taraba

One of the biggest and richest politician in Nigeria is Atiku, the current incumbent governor is Nyarko, So you expect the two to ally and still lose to Boni Haruna and co?

You keep comparing 2011 when CPC was basically Buhari alone to 2015 when its bigger and has more finances for campaign.

Going by your analysis 13 NW and NE states plus 6 SW states is already 19 right? add Niger and Kwara thats 21 states So how does GEJ win the states unless he splits Bayelsa Anambra Enugu(His strong base) into 10 states

Another thing of the 8 most populous states in Nigeria Kano, lagos, Kaduna, katsina, Oyo, Rivers Jigawa Bauchi, APC controls 7 firmly only Rivers is Jonathan Now tell me if everyone picks majority in their strong base Gej would be soo badly behind

Lord Varys: I admit GEJ's support base is substantially depleted in the SW but OBJ's camp is fighting back because they've had the party structure in the region taken from them and given to core GEJ loyalists, Kashamu, bode George, Olubolade,Fayose.etc, I'm under no illusions that he will win the SW, what I believe he can do is secure at least 30% of the sW votes, these along with 90% of the SE/SS votes,70% of MB votes and 15% of core north votes will return him to power........this is the likeliest outcome, GEJ might only lose if APC fields a Tambuwal/Fashola ticket but because of religious balancing issues,Amaechi or okorocha will likely get the running mate post which might even further alienate SW voters
The key to a APC victory is Fashola being the running mate, if Fashola isn't then the SW will feel like there's not much to gain and not much at stake.....I still firmly believe GEJ will win

These GEJ loyalists are nonentities in the SW. Is it Bode George or Kashamu who are those? who is Olubolade? Only fayose has some form of grassroot support in his Ekiti state.

GEJ can do 30% in the SW that I dont dispute but whats the relevance of 30% in this?

Rememeber this NE and NW have 13 states between them add 6 SW its already 19 states out of 36 states. Now think of the Kwara and Niger states thats likely to go APC. thats like 21 states already Any bonus from Kogi or Nasarawa makes it even more omnious

And dont mix the percentages with abosulte numbers 100% of 20 is still less than 60% of 50. Winning 100% of Bayelsa is still inferior in absolute numbers to 60% of Katsina

jmaine: It is not about English but simple deductive inference. By your statement you are indicting the South westerners of having the herd mentality .
The SW didn't follow Tinubu because of Tinubu, but because they were fed up with the performance of the PDP and needed a change. A reason why Tinubu despite all his propaganda was mauled in Ondo.

If the APC should get on the nerves of the people, Mimiko labour party might just be the next major player in the SW if the PDP doesn't bounce back.

Oyinlola was so strong but GEJ lost in Osun state.

If you like alliance with the devil, the electorates will eventually decide like they have been doing recently

You are free to call it herd mentality but the facts on ground is that SW electorates stuck to Awolowos party for over 50yrs. Half a century.

Mimikos Labour party would do what? Can he do anything outside Ondo state? Most SW politicians are careful not to associate themselves with Jonathan else they would lose the elections.

Osun election is coming up, Let Jonathan come and test his popularity by campaigning for the PDP candidate and see the result or try it in Ekiti and endorse any candidate and lets see the result. You seem to be understimating the dislike the average SWesterner have for Jonathans regime.

Since the SE are the pillars of his regime let the SE vote him in and the SW he tagged as rascals would show him our rascality

russellino: I will respect your civil responses. Unlike most of your APC members you seem interested in a real discussion. However what I get from this our little discussion confirms my initial point. I said that APC is bigoted towards SS and the SE and I can glean from yours and dayokanu points that the overwhelming support that GEJ enjoys there is responsible for the hatred for them by APC.

2015 is going to be a very interesting year. I rest my case for now.

You are free to call it bigoted its your prerogative. Its like saying Obama and the democratic party is bigotted against Arkansas, Alabama and Missisipi by not commiting resources to these states in the election

Politics is strategic. When you learn well you would understand

phase1: Maybe it's because there are Igbos in Igbo-etche,Rivers state..in Asaba (Massob has a strong base there), people like Nzeogwu and Achuzia are from there.... Have you exorcised this people from the SS or are you just playing ostrich

You have Ibos in Lagos, Ondo, Kano Benue state maybe you should include those states too. Massob has a strong base in Ojo LGA of Lagos maybe its also Biafra territory

Its simple declare your republic of Iboland and dont attach yourself to anyone else.

I heard one place in Delta state Olukunmi are descended from Yoruba do you think Yorubas would be ataching themselves desperately to them?

jmaine: If you believe politicians control the electorates then do not bring up the issue of the sophistication of the South west any longer.

Again, the SW are not zombies to any politician. Like every Nigerian, the sentiments about the candidates is the defining factor rather than the politicians themselves.

The SW from 1951 to 1999 followed anywhere Awolowo and his party went. even after 15yrs of Awos death. All you needed to win election is to ally with Awos party. Thats half a century of dogged followership of Obafemi Awolowo and his legacy

The SW in 2011 followed Tinubus party. Sit down there and be yarning English

Any leader that proves to be trustworthy would always win the followership of the SW

Lord Varys: I reiterate that the SW votes will shock the APC, in the Middle Belt, Jonathan has Plateau,Benue, Kogi,Taraba,Adamawa(Tukur,Boni Haruna,Bent et all will trounce Nyako who is heavily unpopular,GEJ won here in 2011 also), Nasarawa will be even as Al-Makura is finding it difficult navigating the murky ethnic waters especially with the eggons who are the largest tribe in the state leaning towards the PDP,GEJ won here in 2011 with twice Buhari's votes and the state house of assembly is PDP controlled, Southern Kaduna and the incumbent Gombe Gov will at least ensure he secures 25% in Kaduna and Gombe respectively,
The other northern states are no go areas, and there will be low turnout in Borno And Yobe due to insecurity,
I say with every inch of confidence that GEJ will triumph again in 2015 just not as massive as 2011 where he had 60% of cast votes......APC strategists shouldn't be naïve, the key fact is that while the APC will struggle to secure 25% in GEJ's strongholds,GEJ will easily secure such in the APC's bases with the exception on the core north

In 2011 it was basically Buhari standing alone without any money to campaign and he was able to sweep almost all the Northern states. Now in alliance with Juggernauts like Tinubu OBJ all the defecting governors, Maybe IBB and Atiku would give their silent approval or remain neutral

In 2011 the dislike for GEJ wasnt this high. The best bet for Jonathan is not to conduct an election because he would be so disgraced it wont be funny. In 2011 all Northern governors were in PDP today gradually all of them are moving to APC. So who would do the work for GEJ?

In the North Central GEJ would win in Benue and Plateau. But I can guarantee you that he would lose Niger, Adamawa and Kwara. Taraba and Kogi would be close wiith the former tending to Jonathan and the former to APC

jmaine: The ultimate power resides with the electorates and that is why OBJ couldn't return his daughter back to the senate and why incumbent parties lost out.

And who controls the electorates? Is it not the powerful politicians and the traditional rulers?

OJ couldnt return his daughter because there was a bigger force of Tinubu-ACN in town

When these two ally then Jonathan is doomed

Lord Varys: While I absolutely respect your opinion,debating GEJ's achievements which I'm pretty sure speaks for him is not the issue here,the point I'm trying to make is that a lot of people overstate the APC's position in the SW which is not as strong as portrayed, I gave you the example of the last election in the SW(Ondo Guber Polls) where a PDP allied party won and the PDP itself polled ahead of the APC(then A.CN) candidate,that itself is a fact, I agree SW are sophisticated politically but the PDP and its allied parties are still strong to some extent in the SW, I pretty much named many of GEJ's foot soldiers in the SW with the capability to sway votes,also the south West is generally accomodating so there's a large immigrant population, take a concise look at SW voting patterns in 2011 and even discounting the Tinubu factor,GEJ still triumphed because to a large extent South Westerners still remain heavily suspicious of a northern candidate....so it was with Buhari and I doubt Tinubu would be able to herd everyone into voting Tambuwal .......the only way that would happen is if a 'Fashola' is fielded as his running mate which is unlikely since the aPC will pick one of Amaechi or Okorocha, I'm pretty sure that at worst,GEJ will secure at least 40% of the SW vote, 2015 will tell, when we said Jonathan will sweep the SW in 2011 many scoffed and he won fair and square there with little Tinubu help, 2015 will not be different except maybe a South Westerner like fashola emerges running mate............once again,thanks for your polite responses, I guess you're not as bad as you were portrayed

You are making an error comparing SW of 2011 to that of 2013.

Let me ask where was Oyinlola and OBJs alliance during the Ondo election, where is it today?

The biggest GEJ politician in the SW today is Mimiko. How can he survive when the combination of Tinubu, 5 APC governors, plus PDP renegades like Shuabu Oyedokun, OBJ Oyinlola and even FFK descend on him

The GEJ supporters you named in the SW are largely non entities. Who is Alao-Akala Fayose or Daniels today? both either lost or cant make any of their annointed candidate win

The winning ticket is a Tambuwal/Buhari - allied with Fashola as vice the election would be a forgone win for APC

Yorubas would support their tribesman in Fashola ahead of anything Jonathan promises them

russellino: Its amazing how your sentiments towards SE and SS are revealed with every post. You have unwittingly confirmed that the "hate" from those regions as u have said is the reason for the anti SE/SS rhetoric of the APC. The apc is not only working against those two regions it is working towards inciting hatred of ordinary yorubas and northerners towards ppl from that area

Let me tell u a factor that helped a very popular ngige lose to a very unimpressive obiano in the anambra elections. Some shrewd politicians printed excerpts of hate essays of slimeball in chief ffk days to the election and circulated them complete with pics of the animal sipping champagne with some APC governors. You won't believe how many opinions were swayed that way. The failure of APC bigwigs to even pretend to call him to order betrayed a lack of regard that opened the door for obiano at the end of the day.

Apparently you have a lot to learn in Politics. Its a game of numbers You identify your strong areas and concentrate on them, ignore the areas you are weak.

In the US. There are some states that are red states and some that are blue states. If Democrats present Jesus as candidate, they can never win Texas, Alabama or Missisispi Likewise if Republican have Pope as candidate they can never win New York or California. The candidates know these and dont even waste their time Hardly would you see Obama campaign in Missisipi or Arkansas

SS and SE would vote for Jonathan even if Ojuku and Asari are the APC candidates, So the APC would be wise to ignore all those states and focus on their strenght which is Morth East, NW and SW which have the highest population. NC states like Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, can be easily swayed

Lord Varys: To the SW, your optimism is unrealistic again, I'll start with Ondo, In last year's ondo guber polls, Gov Mimiko, a strong GEJ ally finished 1st followed by the PDP (GEJ's party) while the APC finished a distant third with Akeredolu, What makes you think the APC will be able to displace A Mimiko led LP-PDP alliance , I would expect GEJ to secure at least 60% of the votes in Ondo
In Oyo, one can't discount the PDP here,Ajimobi only narrowly defeated Akala with about 10K votes and with the Akala/Ladoja alliance, the APC will have its hands full,Oyo is the PDP's strongest Bastion in the SW, note that the only SW PDP senator is from here(Ogbomoso area),Mulikat and other members, Jonathan can get Akala/ladoja who for all their crookedness have large followership to help him secure a good performance similar to 2011, note also that the APc will have its hands full here
Same In Lagos, with a large population from the SS/SE resident here, ethno religious factors plus the influence of people like Obanikoro( whose son floored CAN in LGA election),Jimi Agbaje and others could ensure him a shock victory here, you can't also discount other figures such as Fayose in Ekiti and Daniel In Ogun, Only Osun will be hellish for him....
Note Also that the pDP never polls less than 40% even in the SW in any election

I would only speak for the SW. The whole PDP machinery and leadership in the SW is in the hand of OBJ and Oyinlola, Thats the logic behind getting them to either support APC or remain neutral.

If the SW PDP and APC ally there is no way Jonathan would get 20% of votes in most SW states.

In Oyo the PDP would lose very well. Akala despite the incumbent power he had in 2011 still lost albeit narrowly now without incumbent power the PDP is doomed. The royal fathers support APC

In Lagos in the past what has these SS-SE population ever done to influence the politics of Lagos? I doubt any SE or SS person has ever been voted LGA chairman alone yet you claim thats the power that would rescue Lagos?

Even when OBJ had all the presidential power they couldnt unseat Tinubu its now the much hated Jonathan that would win an election where PBJ-PDP failed? Talk to the average Yoruba man and see how much they hate the PDP.

Most SW PDP supporters are ppl who loved OBJ and with the recent OBJ tune forget it. SW votes would be 60-70% APC

You mean OBJ and Amosun would ally and still lose Ogun? Or Tinubu-OBJ ally and still lose Lagos? Or Ajimobi-Alaafin of Oyo would lose to Akala?

In the spirit of attache by force they added SS to it

Why are you scared of staying on your own in your own Ibo country

UK Bobo: How did he protect christian people when the young boys started running around with machetes in 66?

You are very senseless. How would he protect when your hopeless never do well uncles have killed him in his bedroom

If you are expecting a man you killed to protect you then you are genetically deformed