₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
It is a good target but not a big deal for anyone as investor should want to sell his sound stocks
It is totally return of 39.6% return. The dividend yield is inclusive.
I sabi stocks thar will deliver 100% in this market in 12 months from now..lol
Based on my street analysis I see 700 up or 400 down. .Na cement be my yard stick since they both bear Dangote even as it is different sector

From the prospectus

Drop one for boys 😋😋

Streetinvestor2:
It is a good target but not a big deal for anyone as investor should want to sell his sound stocks
It is totally return of 39.6% return. The dividend yield is inclusive.
I sabi stocks thar will deliver 100% in this market in 12 months from now..lol
Based on my street analysis I see 700 up or 400 down. .Na cement be my yard stick since they both bear Dangote even as it is different sector

Now diluted to 6.8%

Streetinvestor2:
But government has asked for up stake to 15% and alhaji refused that the door is closed for such Though he initially offered them 15% which they took only 7.5 %

CardinalStone is looking at 39% upside and 8.5% dividend yield

Streetinvestor2:
It does not matter. The fact remains he will take 84% of dividend declared at an given yr.So what preferential shares again do he need.Is he not going to be the one to decide what makes up profit and expenses in the business. He can collect from any kind of identified expense like toni use to do in uba results of years back. Oga leave the balablu in that speech. We should work with numbers

I'm not carried away o. I don dey rearrange my portfolio to favour some stocks

Streetinvestor2:
Don't be carried away.This normal traders doing thr thing. This red you are seeing will disappear by Wednesday or Thursday. Look at the price change in most stock it is not significant figures

Seems I was right about the dumping once the IPO is actually announced. Nice. I hope they can dump MTN to 600 so I can go and take loan

It closes in October. Shares list in Nov. Where did you see December?

mikeapollo:
Events or new info to come may still influence people's final decision e.g. a more lucrative offer or opportunity in other stocks.
The closing date is Dec 13, which is 2 months period, plus additional 1 week if you are paying through one the issuing houses

oh I get the panic selling rationale. Thanks a lot for your explanation 🤲🏾🤲🏾🤲🏾

essentialone:
This is exactly why big funds do "cross deals" off-market.

If that *2,300,000 units of SEPLAT @ ₦13,552.60 = ₦31.17B* hit the normal order book, here’s what would happen:

*1. Liquidity Shock / Slippage*
The normal daily order book doesn’t have 2.3M shares sitting at ₦13,552.60 waiting to be bought.

Example:
- Let’s say the order book only has 50,000 shares available at ₦13,552.60
- The buyer wants 2.3M shares

So the buyer would "eat through" the book:
1. Buy all 100k @ ₦13,552.60
2. Next 100k @ ₦13,560.00
3. Next 200k @ ₦13,570.00
4. ...and keep climbing

It can create an Artificial Full Bid that will be unsustainable in the short term.
By the end, the buyer might pay an *average of ₦13,800+* instead of ₦13,552.60. That’s called _slippage_. The seller also gets a worse average price.

*2. Price Disruption + Panic*
On NGX, everyone sees the order book live.
- A sudden 2.3M share sell order appears = *huge red flag*
- Retail traders and algos think: "Why is someone dumping ₦31B? Bad news?"
- Price starts falling fast as people panic-sell ahead of it
- The price could drop 5-10% before the order even finishes

Same in reverse for a huge buy: price gets pumped artificially, then crashes after.

*3. Volatility Spikes*
The NGX has circuit breakers. A move that big in minutes could:
1. Trigger trading halts
2. Make SEPLAT the most volatile stock that day
3. Mess up indices because Seplat is a big weight in ASI

*4. Information Leakage*
If you list 2.3M shares publicly, every trader on the street knows "Big money is exiting Seplat".
That gives other institutions time to front-run you, or retail to dump before you finish. The seller loses leverage.

*How Off-Market/Cross-Deal Solves This*
With Cordros doing a negotiated cross:
- *Buyer and seller agree privately* first: "You take 2.3M at ₦13,552.60"
- *It’s reported to NGX after* as 1 single trade
- *Order book never sees it*. Price stays stable. No panic. No slippage.

It’s like selling a house: you don’t list it and let 1,000 people bid 1 brick at a time. You find one buyer and transfer the whole thing.

*Summary*
Listing it publicly = *price impact, volatility, and information leakage*
Crossing it off-market = *clean transfer, zero market chaos*

That’s why for any trade >1% of a company’s float, institutions almost always do it off-market.

Remember that the total OS of Seplat Plc is 600M.

So 2.3M units on offer would have been about 0.38% of the total Seplat shares.

That will create a Supply matrix that an average day of Seplat Bids does not even consume.

essentialone:
And it was sold off at N2.91


Guess how much is their profit if they decide to sell it today?

That will be 6,395% instant Gain.

I’m curious, how would it cause disruptions if the seller lists it on the order book and the buyer buys it from there?

essentialone:
The massive ₦31.17 billion off-market transaction completely explains why Seplat dominated the entire exchange by value on Friday, September 4, 2026. The execution of 2,300,000 units of SEPLAT in a single, negotiated cross-deal via Cordros Securities Limited represents an intentional changing of hands between massive institutional giants. Because it was structured off-market at Seplat's current market value of ₦13,552.60 per share, it allowed these major players to move a massive block of shares without causing chaotic price disruptions in the daily public order book.

So a refinery will be worth $200bn. A refinery that produces fuel, not gold.

ogawisdom:
I mean the IPO price of today and the price it can go to in 3 to 5 years. Imagine buying IPO at 525 and in 3 years or less the price goes to 2500.

The AKK pipeline project includes provided gas power to the textile clusters of the north. The NNPC oga spoke frequently of this last year

PuristForest:
Over the weekend, AGO price slipped from 1700 to above 2000 Naira. People will say its because of the war in Iran, understood! but we are gradually sliding into a manufacturing crisis, much of the selloff we are seeing in the market is energy related, The crisis facing modern manufacturers and businesses due to skyrocketing diesel prices mirrors the exact structural failures that decimated Kaduna’s textile industry in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Energy poverty, compounded by logistical sabotage and cheap imports, turned what was once West Africa's industrial powerhouse into a graveyard of abandoned factories.

The Energy Trap: LPFO vs. AGO
Just as factories today are heavily reliant on diesel (AGO) to bypass a failing national grid, Kaduna's textile mills originally relied on Low Pour Fuel Oil (LPFO) to run their heavy industrial boilers, steam plants, and generators. However, local manufacturers faced a crippling paradox: subsidized LPFO meant for domestic industries was routinely smuggled across borders or diverted by corrupt cartels for illicit profit.

Factories were left high and dry, completely unable to access regulated LPFO on the open market. To stay alive, management was forced to purchase expensive Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) as a substitute. Running continuous, power-hungry textile operations—spinning, weaving, and dyeing lines—on exorbitant diesel prices quickly destroyed operating margins, making local production financially impossible

The Kaduna Textile Collapse
The combination of energy starvation, obsolete machinery, and an influx of cheap foreign fabrics shuttered major giants in Kaduna. The prominent textile mills that folded during this era include:

Kaduna Textiles Limited (KTL): The historic pace-setter established in the 1950s, which finally collapsed in 2002.
Nortex (Nortex Nigeria Ltd): Ceased operations around 2003.
FinTex (Finetex Ltd): Closed down during the same cluster period in 2003.
Supertex: Another major name that succumbed to the harsh economic climate.
United Nigerian Textiles Limited (UNTL): Though operating slightly longer, it eventually buckled under the same systemic pressures, closing its massive complex later in the decade.
Arewa Textiles Plc shut down its operations permanently in January 2005, leaving behind a long-standing battle over unpaid worker entitlements and laying off thousands of employees
Nichemtex also ceased its major active manufacturing operations years ago following severe financial struggles, regulatory enforcement actions over environmental issues, and the broader collapse of the domestic textile sector.
Others like Chelco and Poly Fibre also went under, wiping out tens of thousands of direct jobs.

Can you imagine that at least 100,000 to 350,000 people would have been affected directly or indirectly by these shutdowns in the Northcentral within this period of 2000 - 2006...the ghost towns left behind by energy poverty and structural neglect did not just cost Nigeria its industrial pride—they manufactured the very socio-economic despair and restive, unemployed youth bulge that later made northern Nigeria a fertile ground for radicalization and insurgent recruitment......

The Parallel to Today
When fuel and energy inputs double overnight, businesses cannot absorb the shock indefinitely. Just as the diversion of LPFO starved Kaduna mills of affordable fuel decades ago, modern spikes in diesel prices strip contemporary manufacturers and businesses of working capital. If energy overheads outpace what consumers can pay, history shows that factories and businesses will inevitably downsize/shut down, transforming vibrant industrial zones into silent monuments of unemployment. Do with this post whatever you wish, but be smart with your investments and diversify.

presiade:
Permit me to drop this here.

The United Nations recently voted on representing the African continent according to its true scale on a map, and here is how the member countries voted:

This is a complete non-issue that Africans should have been embarrassed to bring up. Do your own maps and hang it in your schools. You don’t have to ask or petition anybody. If the continent agrees to adopt it, then everyone talking to Africans will be forced to use it. If the US accepts, does it suddenly increase our GDP or make us a military power? We are begging people whose poorest countries are richer than our richest for recognition. SMH

mikeapollo:
Is Fertilizer likely to be more profitable than oil refiner?

The Fertilizer is almost a monopoly since the Iran war destroyed LNG and fertilizer plants abroad. It should be more cost efficient, much less politically risky and more value for money

Oasisblue:
I thought the Dangote fertilizer is bundled in the refinery/petrochemical IPO?

No. Fert is next year IPO

I'm currently not planning to buy. I think Aradel and Seplat is enough for me at the moment. We look towards the fertiliser listing next year.

SonofElElyonRet:
Look on the bright side... Supply on the floor will be limited

Lol. So Dangote go own like 90% of the refinery?

Does this mean things will look up for Presco too?

SmartInsure:
Okomu Oil Palm Forecasts ₦9.47bn Q4 Profit After Tax https://naijaticker.com/news/naijaticker/okomu-oil-palm-forecasts-n9-47bn-q4-profit-after-tax?utm_source=nairaland&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=thread

Surprised. With the new tripled OS I was expecting a big dip.

essentialone:
International Energy Insurance Plc heading to Full Bid...

Please don't encourage him.

KarlTom:
I'm curious to know if your moniker is also aligned with your divine purpose...

This no be Instagram or WhatsApp status o. I don't think anybody cares to see your affirmations on a stock market chatroom

Imalwayshorny:
I align my thoughts, words, and actions with my divine purpose.

Abundance flows to me with ease, and peace anchors my soul.

Every step I take leads me closer to success, favor, and prosperity.

The universe is on my side, and I welcome every blessing meant for me.

I affirm. 🍀✨

SonofElElyonRet:
The Frontier classification may prevent dangote refinery price from dipping upon listing as envisaged by Mega and Co.. might even experience a price spike.. not financial advice..

Dangote Refinery doesn’t exist yet, so how could it be in the frontier classification?

Algorithmically, institutions who follow the Index HAVE to buy the stocks in the Russell index according to the weighting of the stocks within the index. This deepens market liquidity because now there are more dollar inflows by force. This influx is thought to increase move prices and encourage other foreign institutions to look more positively upon the NGX. For eg, how many stocks outside the S&P500 index do you know?

jonnysessy:
So, there is so much noise about Nigeria been admitted to this Russell classification, if i have this stocks in my portfolio on Russell classifications. What does it add to my portfolio because i actually don't understand. I will be happy if someone on this thread can put me through.


The person that ask question doesn't miss his way

Just realized I never receive TIP dividend o

newreality:
HBMNG is not among.

Hmmm

Neither is BUA. Maybe them look ownership %

Na illiquid stock. I think they have rules around liquidity and things like that

Sunrisepebble:
They are not serious

SonofElElyonRet:
Catching its breath before continuing the downhill journey
Mercy won't like my post
Modified: just friendly jibes

I am hoping so. I need GTCO at 100

isaacosas01:
Yes there would be a dip when DRP IPO is live.

Asides recent corrections, I'm wondering if we could see a new dip once the Dangote IPO actually opens for subscription. When the prospectus is actually in your hands and you see the price and possible growth potential, rebalancing your portfolio in advance may become expedient.

I have both. Seplat on the LSE. Bought this year. Currently 40% up.

isaacosas01:
Very good picks but prefer Seplat to Aradel

Been thinking of this Sugar and Nahco but my mind is begging me to continue accumulating Aradel/TIP/HBM.

Sunrisepebble:
Not really.
Although I have bought some DangSugar