Tinubu's base is the South West. And I don't think this is even an argument. Would a Yoruba person vote for Atiku, Wike, Amaechi or Meffy over Tinubu? Very unlikely. If South West could vote for Buhari over Jonathan and Atiku, you can be rest assured that Tinubu had the region on lockdown

Osinbajo would be have been a foe against Tinubu in a general election BUT he has to win the APC primaries and Tinubu has the APC South West delegates in his pocket.

I am almost in tears. However like Paul said in Phillipians 1:21 " To live is Christ, to die is gain". Ravi lived for Christ defending the gospel to anyone and everyone. Through Him, a lot of people came to know who Jesus was.

I remember his Sermon " The Problem with Pleasure". That was a masterpiece. His quote "Even Heaven will be hell for anybody that does not want to be with Jesus" is one I constantly use to explain why unbelievers won't make heaven.

Rest on "Great Soldier" in the bosom of your master. By God's grace we will meet each other in eternity and we will laugh, cry and worship at the feet of our Master.

I don’t understand why people are criticizing Trump on this. His duty is to protect his citizenry. And there is policy is squarely aimed at that

How can a country like Nigeria spend billions of dollars on Identity Management and yet we have nothing to show for it. If I commit a crime today, our government does not have the capability to match my fingerprint from the crime scene with the fingerprint in a database and that’s the issue America has.

If I am on an Immigrant visa in the US and I commit a crime, the US wants to be able to match my DNA or Fingerprint collected at the scene with shared database from Nigeria and other countries.

Trump has not said you can’t enter for Tourism, Schooling or Business. Only for those who want to stay permanently. It is the right thing to do

The ball is in the court of our clueless President to get a proper Identity Management System and share it with the USA. Simple as ABC

That is not Lagbaja. His real name is Bisade Ologunde. Very good family friends of ours. Been to his house in Omole Estate before they moved to Canada, so i know his face very well. See his real face. Very Handsome man by the way.

Linzo:

What dispassionate analysis are you talking about? When the op outrightly remove the fact that Atiku is also a northern and Muslim. How on earth will somebody make analysis that Buhari will win Atiku in Adamawa? Or in Taraba and in Gombe . Buhari will win most core northern States but with less margin eg sokoto, kano, Kaduna. The state of Niger and Plateau may go 50:50, Bauchi may also go 35:65 in favor of APC. Saying Buhari will win Atiku in North is mere illusion

I have never said Buhari will win Adamawa. I fully expect Atiku to win it. Not only because Atiku is from Adamawa, but also because there is a sizable Christian Population there. However even if Atiku wins Adamawa, Taraba and Gombe, will he be able to garner 30% of the total NW and NE votes? Atiku can win those 3 states and still fail to get even 20% of the NW and NE votes.

Nemesis001:

Abeg stop that rubbish cult like followership nonsense. Why didn't he win the 3 times he contested?

Check :
1. In 2011, only SW's election turn out was below the national average.

2. In the same year, out of all the votes casted in the South, Sw contributed 28% while SS/SE contributed 72%.

3. Of the votes that went for PDP from the South, SW contributed only 20% even though they voted heavily for PDP that same year while SE/SS contributed the other 80%.

4. Of all the total votes PDP got in that election, SW contibuted 12%, SE/SS gave 50% and the entire North (NE, NW, NC) gave 38%.

5. SW gave 60% of all their votes to PDP, SE gave 98% while SS gave 96%.
This is for 2011.

In 2015:
1. APC won SW with 580k votes while PDP won Anambra alone with 660k votes thereby nullifying SW votes by over 78k votes.

2. SW voted 43% for PDP, SE voted 93% for PDP while SS voted 92%. The SW 43% votes came mostly from Igbo dominated areas of SW.

3. SW contributed only 16% of APC votes while SE/SE contributed 56% of PDP's vote while the North contributed 80.2% of APC's vote with Middlebelt delivering the killer punch.

This is just for 2015. Continue to see what SW wouldn't want you to know.

You have not negated any of my points. We are actually saying the same thing.

The question is Buhari won about 80% of the NW and NE votes in 2015. For Atiku to win, he needs to bring that figure down to anything between 60-65%. He also needs to hold Buhari to a 50% draw in the South West. Can he do any of those 2 things? i doubt it. However, only time will tell.

ashacot:
Intelligent analyses

Thanks Bro

Nemesis001:

Your analysis is trash.

Buhari was voted because of his sham integrity chants and corruption fighting scam which he already failed in.

Buhari doesn't even have anything to campaign with except that Atiku is corrupt.

Under Buhari's watch, thousands of Nigerians were killed by Soldiers via operation python dance and herdsmen crises.

A lot of Nigerians have seen through the fake Mr integrity and are tired of his lifelessness too. He will be rejected at the polls next year.

Just so you know, GEJ had the cash and every resources to win in 2015 but what happened? The people rejected him.

Before calling me analysis trash, refute anything i said.I am not been sentimental, only being realistic. I am not a Buhari enthusiast, neither am i an APC member. I am only calling out things like i see them. We all know that Buhari has not performed, but in Nigeria, turnout and Party Structure matters. Large portions NW and NE are very pro-Buhari despite his none performance. He is a cult-like figure there. I have been to Kano,Katsina and Kaduna during his tenure, and nothing i have seen convinces me otherwise. APC has a strong stranglehold on the SW, and those that support Atiku won't vote. A NW, NE, SW coalition is enough for Buhari to win.

There is a lot of armchair analysis being done without any data, historical context or empirical election modelling. I have done the empirical analysis and looked at historical data and voting patterns. This election will be based on 2 things turnout and organizational/Party structure. Consider the following.

1. Atiku's power base is the South East and South South. Do you know that despite the love for their brother Jonathan only 35% of them came out to vote. Do you also know that LESS Ibo's registered for this election than the last election. Do you also know that the South East has the LOWEST number of registered voters in Nigeria. If 35% of Igbos come out to vote like the last election ( and this is likely to be lower because no one can convince me that Igbos will be more excited about Atiku than Jonathan) and Atiku gets 95% of those 35% that come out to vote then he will have only 2.3 million votes. In 2011 Jonathan had 22.5 million voted and in 2015 Buhari had 15.4 million votes to win. If we are to assume that Atiku needs a similar number to win the election then 2.3 million from his biggest base is not enough.

2. We all know that the South West will be a hotly contested battleground. Do you know that in 2015 the South West had the LOWEST turnout of all the 6 regions with 31%. That means that only 31% of registered voters came out to vote. And this was in an election where people where excited about Change. The truth is that the upper class and the elite middle class DON'T vote in the South West. How many of us can spend 1 hour in the sun for Accreditation, wait for the ballot boxes and tools to come and then wait for another 2 -4 hours to vote. Unfortunately for Atiku this is his voting block. APC is in firm control of the South West and you can be rest assured that they will spare no expense to ensure that the lower class vote for Buhari. Don't also discount the fact that they have the rigging apparatus in place. Note also that despite the huge sums of money Jonathan spent in 2015 to different Obas, OPC, Church leaders and all. Buhari still won by a 14% margin ( 57%-43%). Can Atiku match the money spent by Jonathan to achieve that 43%. Is he likeable enough to inspire Middle class South Westerners to come and vote for him. I am not so sure

3. In terms of raw numbers, the South South represents a great opportunity for vote pickup for Atiku. With the exception of Edo, PDP is in charge of the region. Jonathan won here with a staggering 92% of the votes. And this region had the highest Turnout rate at 55%. Despite the fact that Atiku is not the son of the soil like Jonathan is, I expect him to come close to Jonathan's performance either by hook or by crook. He will likely replicate the 92-7 winning margin. However can he get a 55% Turnout rate. Also note that voters that registered in 2019 are about 1.5 million LESS than 2015. Atiku has to ensure high turnout and an even higher margin than 2015

4. I truly believe that this election will be decided by how much Buhari wins the Core North(North West and North East). He won a staggering 81% of the votes from this 2 regions with a total of 9,963,877. That's almost 10 million votes. So he won almost 67% of his votes total from these regions. Note that the North West had the second largest turnout rate with almost 50%. Can Buhari replicate this figures? Are Northerners still mad about him despite poor performance? Does Atiku have enough clout to make a dent? History suggests Atiku can do much. The Core North has been voting for Buhari since 2003. I don't think that will change. My model says Atiku has to win 35% of the Code North to win. Can Tambuwal and Dankwambo deliver Sokoto and Gombe? Well Kwakwanso even 30% of the votes in Kano? Will the Sokoto Caliphates anger with how Buhari treated Dasuki their son turn to votes? Atiku has a lot of work to do to curry the favour of the Northern elite.

5. The North Central is another Battleground region. Jonathan lost here but 18% points(59-41). What made it truly shocking was that Jonathan spent a lot of money here and PDP was in control of the region. This should have been a Buhari region. Unfortunately having been ravaged by Fulani Herdsman even battling Atiku to a 50% draw will be tough. He won Niger by over 80% in 2015 amd can replicate that, but it will be in tough everywhere else. The good news is that there are APC Governors in Kogi, Niger, Nassarawa and Plateau. Can their structures help Buhari?. Only time will tell.

My model says that Buhari wins (if the turnout rate in the last election stays the same) if he wins the North Best and North East by 75%-25%, Wins the South West by 60% - 40%. Takes Atiku to a 50% draw in the North Central. And loses the South East and South South by 95% to Atiku with only 5% to Buhari.



cc Lalasticlala, Mynd44

bedspread:
I don't understand!!!! What do they mean by Young age??
15yrs young age

In 2002 I had a 14 yrs old as my colleague in CU....

A boy that should be Granted Scholarship is being denied!!

I Advice the Parents to Seek GOD'S Face... this might be some Manupulations

There is no Manipulation. Unilag has had this policy for a while now. You must be at least 16 years of age before you can be granted admission. The parents should have done proper research before choosing Unilag. Many other schools don't have this restriction. I know that OAU doesn't for instance.

Now it's another argument if the restriction should have been put in place in the first place. There are cogent reasons for and against why people under the age of 16 should be admitted. However to claim manipulation is wrong. It has always been the rule. And i am glad they are not budging. Let the clamour be for the rule to be changed generally rather than for just one person.

Hardwork pays. We know where your money is coming from not like those small girls with big gods.

I also understand how you could only have 63k by May but bought the house in June. In business, people owe too much. You would have put in all your money, energy and efforts into a project and when it is time for people to remit YOUR money, it becomes stories. Thank God they have paid you and you have invested wisely.

I thank God for you. More power to your elbows.

The answer is simple. Most men take care of the physical needs, and leave taking care of the emotional, intellectual and spiritual needs to the wife. Children by nature tend to appreciate the person who takes care of their emotional needs because they don't understand what it takes to provide food on the table. It is until a child begins to earn money himself(or herself) after University that they begin to understand how difficult the job of providing is. That's why most times children tend to appreciate Fathers more later on in life

Having said that, a Man is the head of the Family. He must provide not just for the physical needs of the child, but must find TIME to provide for the overall well-being of the child. I understand how tough the country is, and doing both is definitely difficult. However, we MUST find ways of trying, or else our children will become delinquent.

Caliph69:

Yeah. Virgy Etiaba...Anambra State

What he meant to say was first ELECTED female governor. Etiaba wasn't elected, but yeah she was the first female governor.

This Buhari Administration is a very terrible government. My company was one of the first recepients of the You-win grant during the Jonathan regime. We received 7.5 million paid in tranches. We where properly monitored and mentored. That grant was the foundation of who we are today. It's such a shame that Nigerians Youths are suffering, and this government is doing absolutely nothing to alleviate the situation of Nigerians.

It can't be an UBER rider. In Nigeria, UBER does not allow SUV's. To be registered on Uber, the car must be a saloon car.

Good post, however there are some things people should note before buying property

1. Not all properties appreciate exponentially over a long period of time. In other words, while a piece of land in Lekki or Magodo might increase 10 times it's original value over a 10 year period, some other pieces of land in some other areas may not be able to increase more than 2 or 3 times it's original value over the same 10 year period. My point is this. Use foresight in buying land. Don't just buy land anywhere because you must be a property owner

2. Make sure that the documentation is correct and in order before buying. May people have cried because they did not ensure the land they wanted to buy had ALL the proper documentations

3. If you are not ready to build immediately or you bought the piece of land just to resell later, i suggest you buy land within estates(provided the developer has all the necessary documentation). Land within estates are less prone to 'omo onile' snatching the land

4. If you don't have enough money to buy land in a good area now, rather than allowing your money to just lie fallow in the bank , invest in some other areas like stocks, treasury bills, mutual funds and the likes. There are some stocks that perform better in the long run than even properties. For example GTB was 5 naira in 2008, you can sell it today at around 50 naira. That means the stock is 10 times what it was in 2008 . Which means if you bought 2 million naira worth of GTB stock in 2008, it would be worth about 20 milllion naira today. Invest wisely

Confirmed Teams

Liverpool: Karius, Alexander-Arnold, Lovren, Van Dijk, Robertson, Henderson, Milner, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Salah, Mane, Firmino.

Man City: Ederson, Walker, Kompany (C), Otamendi, Laporte, Fernandinho, Silva, De Bruyne, Gundogan, Sane, Jesus

It's unfortunate when people twist the Word of God to fit their worldview. The Hebrew word used here "Kathab" means " to write. The mark, or writing, was not on the hand, but literally with it. The word used here is evidently taken from the mode of making a contract or bargain, where the name is subscribed to the instrument as was prevalent in those days. You don't agree with me? Check other scriptures where that same word "Kathab" was used. It was used in Nehemiah 9:38 " And because of all this, We make a sure covenant, and write it; our leaders, our Levites, and our priests seal it." You can also check Jer 32:10, Jer 32:12, Jer 32:44.

What the Lord was saying in this passage and the one before it is that he will pour out his Spirit on His people, and they would gladly profess to be worshippers of the true God; and it is expressive of the true nature of a profession of religion.

It's unfortunate when people twist the Word of God to fit their worldview. The Hebrew word used here "Kathab" means " to write. The mark, or writing, was not on the hand, but literally with it. The word used here is evidently taken from the mode of making a contract or bargain, where the name is subscribed to the instrument as was prevalent in those days. You don't agree with me? Check other scriptures where that same word "Kathab" was used. It was used in Nehemiah 9:38 " And because of all this, We make a sure covenant, and write it; our leaders, our Levites, and our priests seal it." You can also check Jer 32:10, Jer 32:12, Jer 32:44.

What the Lord was saying in this passage and the one before it is that he will pour out his Spirit on His people, and they would gladly profess to be worshippers of the true God; and it is expressive of the true nature of a profession of religion.

Poland won't score in this game. Nigeria seems to have figured them out

We don't have a goalkeeper. This one that looks like Dr Alban is useless

While we have not been able to string 3 or passes together in attacking areas, i have to say that i have been very impressed with our pressing. We are not allowing Poland time and space on the ball.

oshe11:
Its obvious they are acting and thats why Vandora gave biggie the heads up earlier in her diary session

I missed that o. Abeg wetin she tell Biggie?

eksbabe:
Vandee are talking, Vandora is busy shinning teeth, she wants Dee to make a move. She thinks he is shy.
He is just drifting away from the topic and forming comedy

D1 is not that kind of guy that will kiss and frolick on live tv especially cos he is married. Vandora should find someone else to shine her Congo

thatigboman:
noo. Tobi willlose on his volition. CeeC has nothing to do with it.

The problem with Tobi is that he is too much of a gentleman. Sometimes you have to be tough or else people like CeeC will run all over you. Tobi doesn't get that. He is behaving like he must submit to all her whims and caprices.

This CeeC girl will make Tobi lose for sure cos she does not want him to be around other girls at all. And Tobi with his indomie brain will oblige her.

Papanwamaikpe:
She's been pregnant for more than a year now and yet to deliver due to too much abortions done when she was single. This should serve as a warning to girls of nowadays

The heart of man is DESPERATELY wicked. Who can know it?

ewebiodun:
I really feel requests has been slow on uber this January. I think taxify is having a bigger market share as at now.
Guys what do u think?

Chief, you are right. And i dont think its Uber alone. Taxify as well. People are generally not moving around as much in January

Dear Adekunle Gold,

There is a reason more people are siding with the driver over your friend. Her shout of rape and the stories told by both parties just does not add up

1. He was going to rape you yet he allowed you video the whole convo
2. He was going to rape you yet he left his key in the ignition and left his door opened to open the gaye of his house
3. He was going to rape her yet he did not attempt to remove the clothing on sensitive parts of her body.

The guy did some things wrong, but the girl is blatantly lying

Leyqute:


What do you think about the allegations of rape she leveled against him?

It is obviously not true. He went to open the gate, left his door open with the key in the ignition. That's not a sign of someone who wants to rape a lady. Also, he never touched her until she took his keys. My guess is that he struggled with her to get his keys back not to rape her. Finally, he did not tear of her top, trousers or any of her dressings while struggling with her. Rapists usually go for your items of clothing covering sensitive parts of the womans body. There is no evidence that points to that(if there where, the lady would have produced it by now either via video, audio or her clothing). Like i said i feel she is shouting rape to draw some attention.

I posted this on a separate thread, i believe i will post this here for clarity sake. I am a self-employed software developer, but i also driver on Uber to make extra money. After reading both stories and watching the video that was posted, here is what i believe happened

1. The lady made a request on Taxify and the guy came to pick her before asking for her destination and if she was paying cash. This was his first mistake. It is his prerogative to ask for her destination especially at that time of the night(There are areas i would not go to in Lagos at 12midnight). It is also his prerogative to ask if it was a card or cash trip(Due to the fact that Uber and Taxify do not credit your account immediately for card trips, some drivers prefer cash trips especially when they are in desperate need of cash and can't wait until the following week when they will be credited).It should be noted that Uber/Taxify frown on this practice, but we should grant drivers some leeway here. Nigeria is not easy. Now like i said earlier, he should have called her and asked these questions BEFORE driving to her destination. If her responses where fine with him then go to her pick up point and pick her. If her responses where not fine with him, he should have cancelled the trip and wait for someone else to request.

2. On getting to her location, he realised that her terms where not favourable to him, so he asked her to come down and she refused. Now we get to the crux of the matter. One of 2 things could have happened. The driver could have waited for her new ride to come(By the way, i don't believe her that the driver was 2 mins away. At that time of the night on a weekday in Jakande, drivers are not always 2 mins away. My guess would be about 10 mins). I don't think 10 mins was too much time to wait for a ride for a rider since you where the one that rejected the request. On the other hand, when the guy refused to wait, she could have come down and waited for the next driver since she was in front of her house and the driver was only 2 minutes away.

3. Recall that the driver said he lived not too far away from her pick up point. Once she refused to come down, he got angry and decided to go home with her still in the car. I am sure in his mind he was trying to teach her a lesson(which was wrong). It was in front of his house that all the drama happened

4. He went to open the gate of his house, the lady seized his key. In his attempt to wrest his keys away from her, he man-handled her and she in turn pepper-sprayed him.


The guy was obviously at fault for driving her to an unknown location at that time of the night. However, one can not completely exonerate the lady. she could have come down from the car when he went to open the gate, request for another ride and reported the case to Taxify later. Also, this is not a rape case of that i believe we are all sure. She just termed it rape to grab attention to the case.

Lesson learnt for me is this. We should learn to discomfort ourselves sometimes for the sake of peace. If the Driver had discomforted himself by waiting her her next ride, all this would not have happened. Same also for the lady. God help us all.

I don't usually comment on Nairaland, but for the sake of clarity, i believe i will. I am a self-employed software developer, but i also driver on Uber to make extra money. After reading both stories and watching the video that was posted, here is what i believe happened

1. The lady made a request on Taxify and the guy came to pick her before asking for her destination and if she was paying cash. This was his first mistake. It is his prerogative to ask for her destination especially at that time of the night(There are areas i would not go to in Lagos at 12midnight). It is also his prerogative to ask if it was a card or cash trip(Due to the fact that Uber and Taxify do not credit your account immediately for card trips, some drivers prefer cash trips especially when they are in desperate need of cash and can't wait until the following week when they will be credited).It should be noted that Uber/Taxify frown on this practice, but we should grant drivers some leeway here. Nigeria is not easy. Now like i said earlier, he should have called her and asked these questions BEFORE driving to her destination. If her responses where fine with him then go to her pick up point and pick her. If her responses where not fine with him, he should have cancelled the trip and wait for someone else to request.

2. On getting to her location, he realised that her terms where not favourable to him, so he asked her to come down and she refused. Now we get to the crux of the matter. One of 2 things could have happened. The driver could have waited for her new ride to come(By the way, i don't believe her that the driver was 2 mins away. At that time of the night on a weekday in Jakande, drivers are not always 2 mins away. My guess would be about 10 mins). I don't think 10 mins was too much time to wait for a ride for a rider since you where the one that rejected the request. On the other hand, when the guy refused to wait, she could have come down and waited for the next driver since she was in front of her house and the driver was only 2 minutes away.

3. Recall that the driver said he lived not too far away from her pick up point. Once she refused to come down, he got angry and decided to go home with her still in the car. I am sure in his mind he was trying to teach her a lesson(which was wrong). It was in front of his house that all the drama happened

4. He went to open the gate of his house, the lady seized his key. In his attempt to wrest his keys away from her, he man-handled her and she in turn pepper-sprayed him.


The guy was obviously at fault for driving her to an unknown location at that time of the night. However, one can not completely exonerate the lady. she could have come down from the car when he went to open the gate, request for another ride and reported the case to Taxify later. Also, this is not a rape case of that i believe we are all sure. She just termed it rape to grab attention to the case.

Lesson learnt for me is this. We should learn to discomfort ourselves sometimes for the sake of peace. If the Driver had discomforted himself by waiting her her next ride, all this would not have happened. Same also for the lady. God help us all.