₦airaland Forum

It's long overdue for the Constitution to be amended for Legislators to stay in office cumulatively, only for a maximum of 12 years period, across all legislative chambers, but with a maximum cap of not more than 8 years in a particular legislative house.

GTCO Q3 breakdown:

*Headline:* 9M Profit DOWN 12%

- *PAT:* N614.57bn ($463m) vs N699.64bn last year = *-12%*
- *PBT:* N879.9bn = *-2.3%*
- *Gross Earnings:* N1.63tn = *+3.3%* (they grew revenue, but profit fell).

*Why profit fell:*

1. *Funding costs killed them:* Interest expense *+27.7% to N356bn*, but interest income only +5% to N1.29tn. Net Interest Income actually *fell -1.7% to N935.88bn*. They are paying more for deposits than they earn on loans.
2. *Tax surge:* Tax expense *+32% to N265.32bn*, effective tax rate jumped from 22.3% to *30.2%*.
3. *EPS fell -19.9% to N16.58* — worse than PAT fall because of dilution.

*The good news they buried:*

- Loan losses *down -58.4% to N29.02bn* — quality of loan book improved
- Customer deposits *+9.4% to N13.73tn* — people still putting money with GTCO
- Total Assets *+3.5% to N18.37tn*, Equity N3.48tn — balance sheet still very strong
- They are *deliberately not lending*: Loans *-4.1% to N3tn*, but investment securities *up to N5.94tn* — they parked money in T-bills and bonds instead of risky loans.

*Q3 alone was worse:*
- Q3 PBT *-7.7%*, Q3 PAT *-20% to N200.39bn* — slowdown accelerating.

*Market reaction:*
Shares down 10% in last 4 weeks, but still *+35.80% YTD* from N90.70. Segun Agbaje's stake still huge.

*Bottom line:*
GTCO is not in trouble — it's a *margin squeeze*. Banks are collecting deposits (+9.4%) but refusing to lend (loans -4.1%) because CBN rate is high and risks are high. So they pay high interest on deposits and earn low on T-bills.

If funding costs peak in Q4, Q1 2027 will bounce. But don't expect Q4 to be strong.

KarlTom:
ARADEL where is our Q3?

DEAR ALL, A TOTAL OF 811,267 UNITS OF ARADEL HOLDINGS PLC WAS EXECUTED AS AN OFF-MARKET TRADE TODAY, OCTOBER 29, 2026, IN ONE DEAL. THE TRADE WAS NEGOTIATED CROSS-DEAL WITH STANBIC IBTC STOCKBROKERS LTD ON THE BUY AND SELL SIDES. THANK YOU.

Ecobank Plc has:

Return on Equity: 18.12%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 3.50x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 11.28x
Current Ratio: 0.83x
Net Profit Margin: 31.04%
Dividend Yield: 3.06%.

emmaodet:
All your posting are for trailing 12 months or current quarter?

9M

Haldane McCall Plc has:

Return on Equity: 2.12%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 20.06x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 0.28x
Current Ratio: 1.85x
Net Profit Margin: 18.66%
Dividend Yield: 1.47%.

Transcorp Plc has:

Return on Equity: 19.36%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 7.81x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 1.92x
Current Ratio: 1.23x
Net Profit Margin: 21.01%
Dividend Yield: 5.97%.

NB Plc just turned the corner — this 9M 2026 is the best P&L they've posted since the FX crisis.

*1. Top line is finally efficient again*
- Revenue +5.38% to N1.102tn — not huge, but in a market where volume is under pressure from price hikes, +5% is solid
- Gross Profit +15.11% to N477.9bn — *Gross margin 43.3%* (vs 39.7% last year)
- Why? Cost of Sales actually FELL N631.23bn → N624.76bn (-1%) while revenue rose. That means price increases + local sourcing + brewery optimization are working. In 2023/24 FX killed their malted barley cost, now it's normalized.

*2. Profit jump is from finance cost collapse*
- Operating profit +9.84% to N179.1bn — good but not crazy
- *PBT +32.6% to N171.6bn, PAT +33.4% to N114.1bn* — the delta is finance costs:
- Net finance costs: *N33.66bn → N7.5bn (-77.7%)*
- That's the 2024 rights issue + loan repayment story. Last year they had huge FX revaluation losses and interest on FX-denominated debt. Now short-term borrowings = zero, as you noted. N77.3bn net cash position.

*3. Balance sheet now fortress*
- Total Assets N1.125tn (+5.6% from FY25)
- Equity N667.2bn (+19.1%) — implies they retained most of the N114bn profit
- EPS 368k vs 275k — +33.8% YoY

*For valuation:*
- 9M annualized PAT ~N152bn. On 10.2bn shares? Actually NB has ∼30.9bn shares after rights issue, so your EPS 368k for 9M = ∼490k annualized. At current ~N45-50, PE ∼9-10x — cheap for a brewer with this deleveraging.
- Operating cash flow must be huge given zero short-term loans.

*What to watch:*
- Volume vs price: Is +5% revenue all price, volume still declining?
- Excise duty impact in Q4
- Dividend — with N667bn equity and no debt, they can resume big payout in FY26.

NEM is having a very efficient year — growing profit much faster than top line.

*Profitability — the real story*

- Insurance Revenue +7.7% (N107.4bn → N115.7bn) but PAT +30.5% (N20.5bn → N26.77bn)
- Means *underwriting discipline + investment income* did the work, not just selling more policies
- 9M ROE: *25.9%* (26.77 / 103.25). Annualized ~*34.6%* — that's top quartile for NGX Insurance
- 9M ROA: *13.1%* (26.77 / 204.22). Annualized ~*17.5%*
- PBT margin: 26.8% (31.02 / 115.6) vs 22.1% last year — 470bps expansion

*Balance sheet*

- Assets N204.2bn (+14.3% from N178.6bn at FY25) — likely growth in investment portfolio + insurance contract assets
- Equity N103.3bn, Liabilities N101.0bn → *Equity ratio ∼50.6%* — very solvent, no leverage stress
- Solvency is solid for NAICOM's new capital requirements

*Market angle*

- 5.016bn shares @ free float 56.27% = N81bn free float value → implied price ~N28.7 (81bn / 2.822bn free float shares)
- Free float 56% > 20% NGX Main Board requirement — no compliance risk, good liquidity

For an insurer in this inflation/high-rate environment, the pattern you want is exactly this: revenue single-digit growth, profit 30%+ growth, assets growing but equity growing faster.

Seplat 9M 2026 is a blowout — the MPNU (ExxonMobil) acquisition is finally paying.

Here's what matters:

*1. Production is now offshore-led*
- 144,999 boepd (+7% YoY) — already at full-year low-end. They narrowed guidance up to *145-155k boepd* from 140-150k. So Q4 will be strong.
- Split is key: Onshore ∼50k, Offshore (MPNU assets) ∼95k boepd. Offshore oil is what drove revenue.

*2. Profitability leverage*
- Revenue +27% to $2.76bn, but Adjusted EBITDA +38% to $1.53bn = *55% EBITDA margin* (vs 51% last year)
- PAT +174% to $260.2m — that's after heavy DD&A and finance costs from MPNU. Last year PAT was depressed by $95m due to acquisition costs and higher interest.
- Why PAT up so much more than revenue? Two drivers: higher oil realization + lower unit opex on offshore, and interest costs dropping.

*3. The debt story — biggest takeaway*
- Fully repaid the *$100m remaining on APF on Oct 27* — so ALL MPNU acquisition debt is gone, less than 2 years after deal closed in Dec 2024.
- That was a $1.28bn deal. Paying it off in 22 months is very fast. Free cash flow $749m (-10% YoY) still strong enough to do it. The -10% FCF dip is just capex timing, not performance — they cut capex guidance to $280-340m due to offshore rig delays.

*4. Gas is now real*
- *ANOH first gas via OB3 in September, at 70-80% capacity.* This is huge — ANOH has been delayed since 2020. OB3 is the east-west gas artery to power plants. This moves Seplat from just oil to gas cash flows (SAF, domestic supply).
- Gas price is in Naira but stable, and gas revenue is lower tax.

*5. Shareholder return*
- 3Q dividend 19c vs 7.5c last year (+153%) — annualized 57c? Yield ∼3-4% in London. Shows confidence.

*Red flags to watch:*
- Working capital — receivables from Nigerian government? Check if trade receivables ballooned
- Offshore production decline rate — MPNU assets are mature, need infill drilling
- Capex cut is due to rig delay — will that push production in 2027?

*UBA now at 43.00*

*Yesterday:*
- *N43.00 +2.75 (+6.83%)* — biggest mover in banking that day.
- Day range: N40.50 - N43.00
- Volume: *38.5M shares* (38,482,911 exact), 1,001 deals, turnover N1.57bn
- Previous close: N40.25 on Oct 27
- Shares outstanding: 44.2B, Mkt cap: N1.9T

*Performance context:*
- 1WK: +2.63%
- 4WK: -6.52%
- 3MO: -6.22%
- 6MO: -3.48%
- 1YR: +0.94%
- *YTD: +3.24%*
- Started year at N41.65, so only +3.24% YTD — ranks 80th on NGX YTD.
- UBA lost 7% in past 4 weeks, so this +6.83% is a bounce.

*Liquidity:*
- 9th most traded on NGX last 3 months (Jul 30 - Oct 28).
- Total: 1.44bn shares in 78,231 deals, valued at N64.1bn.
- Avg: 22.8m shares or N1.02bn per session
- High volume: 113M on Sept 3, low 4.28M Aug 14.

*Last 10 days trades:*
- Oct 28: 38.4M @43.00 +6.83%
- Oct 27: 21.6M @40.25 -1.35%
- Oct 26: 23.9M @40.80 +0.25%
- Oct 23: 8.7M @40.70 -2.63%
- Oct 22: 10.1M @41.80 -0.24%
- Oct 21: 13.0M @41.90 -0.24%
- Oct 20: 48.1M @42.00 flat
- Oct 19: 22.8M @42.00 -2.33%

So UBA's Oct 28 spike was on 2x average volume — classic reversal after their -6.52% 4-week slide. Happened the same day of FIRSTHOLDCO -10%, so money likely rotated from First HoldCo to UBA.

*United Capital Plc — 9M 2026 result:*

Strong quarter — CEO Peter Ashade called it "remarkable."

*Top line:*
- Gross earnings: *N62.47bn (+50%)* from N41.54bn in 9M 2025
- Driven by: fee & commission +27%, net investment income +95%, net trading +29%, gain on financial assets FVTPL +22%
- Net operating income: *N55.58bn (+48%)* from N37.60bn.

*Bottom line:*
- Operating expenses: N23.14bn (+33%)
- *PBT: N41.58bn (+66%)* from N25.01bn
- *PAT: N34.83bn (+65%)* from N21.17bn.

*Balance sheet:*
- Total assets: N1.81T (+3% YTD from N1.76T in Dec 2025) — cash & cash eq +115% YTD
- Managed funds (trusts and mutual funds): N1.04T (+4% YTD from N993.64bn)
- Shareholders' funds: N237.08bn (+58% YTD from N149.99bn) — driven by fair value reserve +76% and retained earnings +38%.

Quote: "well-positioned to build on our momentum... strong execution, sustainable growth".

*Dangote Cement — Q3 2026 result breakdown:*

This is the detailed take on why DANGCEM jumped +9.8% to *N1,341.90 on Oct 27* (+120% YTD).

*Numbers:*
- Pre-tax profit: *N1.47T* (+41.5% vs N1.04T in 9M 2025)
- PAT: *N974.79bn* (+31.2%)
- EPS: *N58.37* (from N43.82)
- Revenue: *N3.77T* (+19.6%)
- Operating profit: *N1.57T* (+27.8%), gross margin 63.2% (from 59.2%)
- Operating cash flow: *N1.83T* (+41.5%)
- Finance cost down 57.8% to N120.8bn — big boost to PBT.

*Expansion test:*
- Capital commitments: *N2.31T* at Sept 30 (double N1.12T at Dec 2025)
- Plan: 55m tonnes to *80m tonnes by 2030* (+45%) — new plants in Nigeria, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Senegal, Zimbabwe.
- Ethiopia alone: $380m for 2nd line + grinding unit to double to 5m tonnes.
- PPE additions N566.72bn, but cash paid only N301.70bn — N268.71bn on supplier credit (buy now, pay later).

*Cash & dividends:*
- Dividend paid 9M: N753.85bn
- Free cash flow N1.26T — covers dividend 1.7x
- Net cash N51.1bn vs net debt N682.9bn at Dec 2025 — balance sheet flipped positive.
- But repaid N992.65bn loans, borrowed N467.69bn new — net repayment N525bn.
- Current liabilities N2.75T > current assets N1.97T — current ratio 0.72x, working capital deficit N780bn.

Analyst warning: Strong earnings, but watch liquidity — if expansion cash calls accelerate, or cement demand weakens (expensive credit), that N2.31T commitment will strain payout ratio.

For NGX: DANGCEM +9.8% on Oct 27 helped ASI rally, before the FIRSTHOLDCO -10% drag on Oct 28.

GTCO Bank Plc has:

Return on Equity: 17.65%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 7.43x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 4.28x
Current Ratio: 1.20x
Net Profit Margin: 49.14%
Dividend Yield: 10.36%.

Okomu Oil Plc has:

Return on Equity: 55.88%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 27.86x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 1.07x
Current Ratio: 1.50x
Net Profit Margin: 23.70%
Dividend Yield: 2.08%.

Dangote Cement Plc has:

Return on Equity: 36.36%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 22.99x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 1.29x
Current Ratio: 0.72x
Net Profit Margin: 25.83%
Dividend Yield: 3.35%.

Aradel Plc has:

Return on Equity: 8.81%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 40.71x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 4.02x
Current Ratio: 0.81x
Net Profit Margin: 7.67%
Dividend Yield: 2.29%.

Union Dicon Plc has:

Return on Equity: -3.61%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 131.94x
Debt to Equity Ratio: -10.41x
Current Ratio: 0.47x
Net Profit Margin: 250.24%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%.

Thomas Wyatt Plc has:

Return on Equity: 4.29%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 41.17x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 0.89x
Current Ratio: 0.45x
Net Profit Margin: 158.29%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%.

Sunu Assurance Plc has:

Return on Equity: 0.42%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 300.00x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 1.44x
Current Ratio: 1.35x
Net Profit Margin: 0.51%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%.

Prestige Assurance Plc has:

Return on Equity: 4.93%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 17.65x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 0.90x
Current Ratio: 1.78x
Net Profit Margin: 8.37%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%.

Premier Paint Plc has:

Return on Equity: 3.57%
Price to Earnings Ratio: -434.29x
Debt to Equity Ratio: -1.69x
Current Ratio: 0.003x
Net Profit Margin: -21.51%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%.

Multi-trex Plc has:

Return on Equity: -4.79%
Price to Earnings Ratio: -6.60x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 0.18x
Current Ratio: 0.70x
Net Profit Margin: -17.04%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%.

Morison Plc has:

Return on Equity: -0.97%
Price to Earnings Ratio: -1,040.00x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 0.56x
Current Ratio: 1.05x
Net Profit Margin: -8.51%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%.

FTN Cocoa Plc has:

Return on Equity: 118.82%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 20.00x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 18.21x
Current Ratio: 18.43x
Net Profit Margin: 24.84%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%.

Fortis Global Insurance Plc has:

Return on Equity: -7.12%
Price to Earnings Ratio: -11.77x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 0.33x
Current Ratio: 2.76x
Net Profit Margin: -236.04%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%.

CMFC Plc has:

Return on Equity: -3.30%
Price to Earnings Ratio: -52.50x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 0.52x
Current Ratio: 2.86x
Net Profit Margin: -171.46%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%.

Austin Laz Plc has:

Return on Equity: 0.02%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 11,950.00x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 0.02x
Current Ratio: 1.46x
Net Profit Margin: 0.90%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%.

Lasaco Assurance Plc has:

Return on Equity: 3.14%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 15.28x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 0.54x
Current Ratio: 2.06x
Net Profit Margin: 5.24%
Dividend Yield: 0.00%.

UPDC Plc has:

Return on Equity: 8.02%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 74.00x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 1.01x
Current Ratio: 1.41x
Net Profit Margin: 12.67%
Dividend Yield: 0.27%.

Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank Plc has:

Return on Equity: 19.21%
Price to Earnings Ratio: 13.72x
Debt to Equity Ratio: 3.04x
Current Ratio: 1.22x
Net Profit Margin: 40.17%
Dividend Yield: 3.11%.