₦airaland Forum

*GCR Downgrades First Bank of Nigeria Limited*.

*1. The Downgrade*
*GCR Ratings* downgraded *First Bank of Nigeria Limited*:
1. *Long-term issuer rating*: *A+(NG) → A(NG)*
2. *Short-term issuer rating*: *Affirmed at A1(NG)*
3. *Outlook*: *Rating Watch Evolving*

Note: GCR rates the bank, but assessment is centered on *FirstHoldCo Plc group* because FirstBank is the core operating entity.

*2. Why GCR Downgraded - Key Risks*
*Asset Quality Deterioration*
1. *End of regulatory forbearance in 2025* pushed key loans to *Stage 3*
2. *NPL ratio*: *10.2% in FY2024 → 12.0% in FY2025 → 13.9% in H1 2026*
3. *Reserve coverage collapsed*: *80.8% in FY2023 → 52.4% in FY2024 → 23.3% in FY2025*. Much less buffer to absorb losses
4. *Sector concentration risk*: *Oil & Gas = 45%+* of loan book despite obligor concentration improving

*Capital Weakness*
1. *GCR Core Capital ratio*: *13.6% in FY2024 → 8.2% in FY2025*
2. *Regulatory CAR*: *17.3% in FY2024 → 11.0% in FY2025* - *Breach of 15.0% minimum* for international banks
3. *Cause*: Elevated impairment charges + loan write-offs depleted capital and hurt profitability

*3. What’s Supporting the Rating*
Despite the downgrade, GCR still sees strengths:
1. *Strong business profile*: 4th largest bank in Nigeria by assets. 100+ year operating history
2. *Diversified franchise*: Banking + non-banking. Operations in 7 African countries + UK, France, China
3. *Funding strength*: Customer deposits = *82.7% of funding*. Low-cost CASA base helped cut cost of funds to *4.8% from 5.6%*
4. *Liquidity*: GCR liquid assets to deposits *44.9%*. Liquid assets to wholesale funding *4.8x*

*4. The Capital Raise Plan*
To fix capital, FirstHoldCo plans to raise *NGN 253.0 billion in 2026*.
*NGN 45.0 billion* already raised as of *June 30, 2026*.

GCR’s *"Rating Watch Evolving"* means the rating could go up or down in next 6 months depending on whether the capital injection lands and asset quality stabilizes.

*5. GCR’s Outlook*
*Next 12-18 months*: Business profile, funding, and liquidity expected to remain stable.
*But*: Asset quality metrics likely to remain constrained.

*Key Takeaways*
1. *Forbearance cliff*: 2025 expiry exposed real asset quality problems that were masked
2. *Oil & Gas exposure*: 45% of loans is the big risk if $100+ oil reverses
3. *Capital breach matters*: Falling below 15% CAR for an international bank is serious. The NGN253bn raise is critical
4. *FHC context*: This comes right as CBN is tightening FHC rules. FirstHoldCo with 15+ subsidiaries will face more scrutiny on governance + intra-group lending

*Bottom Line*: FirstBank isn’t in crisis - funding and liquidity are still strong. But GCR is warning that asset quality + capital are now below peer standards. The next 6 months hinge on that NGN253bn capital raise and loan recoveries.

This puts FirstHoldCo in a tight spot alongside the new CBN FHC guidelines that require 20% extra capital at holding company level.

*CBN seeks to tighten screws on bank holding companies*.

*1. What CBN Just Did*
In *June 2026*, the CBN released an *exposure draft* of new guidelines for *Financial Holding Companies* in Nigeria. Public feedback closed *July 9*. It becomes law in ∼6 months.

*Why now*: "To address observed gaps and align with evolving regulatory and market developments" - _Rita Sike, CBN Director of Financial Policy and Regulation_

CBN also released draft *"ring-fencing" guidelines* for closely linked entities. Both are meant to work together.

*2. The Big New Rules*
*Capital & Ownership*
1. *Higher capital*: FHCs must have capital base *at least 20% more* than combined capital requirements of subsidiaries
2. *Direct ownership*: Must hold *minimum 51%* in all subsidiaries. No proxy ownership

*Governance & Control*
3. *No credit interference*: FHCs barred from having a say in lending decisions/credit admin of bank subsidiaries
4. *Board limits*: FHC director can only sit on *1 other subsidiary board*. Max *20%* of any subsidiary board
5. *Shared services scrutiny*: Cost audits required. Quarterly reports on providers, beneficiaries, pricing to prevent underpricing

*Data & Transactions*
6. *Customer data*: Data from one subsidiary *cannot be shared* with other units without customer consent
7. *No circular ownership*: Subsidiaries cannot buy shares of parent or sister companies
8. *Intra-group lending penalty*: Credit from bank to sister entity deducted from bank's regulatory capital
9. *Guarantees limited*: FHCs can’t use subsidiary guarantees for financing unless collateral = dividend income only. Contingent liabilities capped at *20% of unimpaired shareholders’ funds*

*Operations*
10. *Foreign subs moved up*: Ownership of foreign bank subsidiaries must be ceded to FHCs for easier supervision
11. *Non-operating status maintained*: FHCs must not advertise or do direct business canvassing

*3. Who This Hits*
Banks that adopted FHC structure since 2014:
1. *Access Holdings* - 25+ subsidiaries, 14 foreign
2. *FirstHoldCo* - 15+ entities, 7 foreign banks
3. *GTCO* - 14 subsidiaries, HabariPay, asset mgmt, pensions
4. *Stanbic IBTC Holdings* - 11 subsidiaries across banking, pensions, IB, brokerage
5. *FCMB Group* - 7 entities including pensions, asset mgmt
6. *Sterling Financial Holdings*
7. *FSDH Holding Company*
8. *Zenith Bank* - currently transitioning to FHC

*4. Why CBN is Doing This*
CBN says goals are to:
*"strengthen consumer protection, enhance transparency and accountability, mitigate contagion risks, and preserve financial stability while supporting innovation"*

*The problem CBN flagged*: "Incestuous relationships" between parents and subs. Risks of contagion have grown as FHCs expanded across Africa into pensions, insurance, fintech, asset management.

_Eric Orji, Lagos economist_: _"As the holding companies grew in scale and diversity, the risk of contagion if any unit failed also increased. The recognition of this potential danger is what has prompted this regulatory action."_

*5. Market Impact*
*Oluwatosin Akanle, Crescent University*: _"This signals a clear move towards tighter supervision of financial groups"_

*Expected effects*:
1. *Spike in compliance costs* as groups review exposures
2. *Structural changes* - some may need to alter governance, business plans
3. *Trust boost* - reduces opaque transactions and improves systemic stability

*Key Takeaways*
1. *End of free-for-all*: CBN is drawing hard lines between FHC and bank operations
2. *Credit independence*: Holding company execs likely out of bank credit committees
3. *Data walls*: No more cross-selling using customer data without consent
4. *Capital buffer*: 20% extra capital requirement makes FHCs more resilient but more expensive to run

*Bottom Line*: After 12 years of FHCs, CBN is moving from "let them grow" to "let’s control them". With banks now owning fintechs, insurers, and foreign banks, the regulator wants to stop risk from spreading through the group.

*Oil Price Rally Puts Aradel Holdings Stock And Energy Shippers In Focus*

*1. Context: Oil Volatility*
Brent pulled back 3–4% after the surge, but still *sits above $100/bbl* with *weekly gains near 8–9%*. That keeps pressure on costs but creates openings for oil & gas names.

*2. Aradel Holdings - NGSE:ARADEL*
Analysts profiled Aradel as one of 3 integrated oil & gas stocks exposed to the headlines.

*Business Mix:*
1. *Integrated Nigerian energy group*: Exploration, production + refining
2. *Revenue breakdown*:
- *Crude oil*: ~*NGN 2.22trn*
- *Gas*: ~*NGN 602bn*
- *Refined products*: ~*NGN 227bn*
3. *Market Cap*: ~*NGN 6.14trn*

*Thesis*: Aradel gives *full-cycle exposure* to high crude prices through both upstream barrels and downstream refined output. Analysts note "strong recent earnings and revenue momentum".

*Caveat*: They flag "one unresolved pressure that could meaningfully shift how much of each oil upturn reaches the bottom line".

*3. Other Names In Focus*
Analysts also highlighted 2 shippers that benefit from high oil prices via freight rates:
1. *COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation* SEHK:1138 - HK$125.6b. Tankers + LNG carriers. Leveraged to seaborne oil trade.
2. *China Merchants Energy Shipping* SHSE:601872 - CN¥161.5b. Crude/gas carrier. Freight demand moves with oil trade volumes

This explains what we saw on NGX Thursday:
*ARADEL topped the value chart at 19.70% of total trades* but was also a *top loser -10.00%*.
High volume + price drop suggests profit-taking after the oil rally, not necessarily fundamental weakness.

*Key Takeaways for ARADEL*
1. *Direct $100+ oil play*: With 2.22trn from crude, every $1 move in Brent flows to revenue
2. *Downstream buffer*: Refined products ~NGN 227bn helps if crude margins get squeezed
3. *Watch the "unresolved pressure"*: Could be production volumes, refining costs, FX, or security in Niger Delta
4. *Volatility expected*: Shippers + producers are now "headline trades" until Hormuz risks ease.

*Bottom Line*: Analysts see Aradel as a core integrated exposure to the oil rally. But with Brent swinging $100-$110 this week, expect big moves in both directions. The N6.14trn market cap makes it one of Nigeria's largest energy stocks.

*14 NGX Companies Holding AGMs/EGM in September 2026*.

September is busy for shareholders. *13 AGMs + 1 EGM* scheduled between *Sept 14 - Sept 30, 2026*.
Sectors: Insurance, Agriculture, Oil & Gas, Consumer Goods, Logistics, Publishing, Tech, Manufacturing.

*Key Meetings by Date*

*Sept 14*
*1. Northern Nigeria Flour Mills Plc* - Kano, Physical
- *FY Mar 2026*: Revenue *-39% YoY to N21.5bn*. PBT *-96.1% to N112.7m*
- *Issue*: Weak maize/agri sales

*Sept 15*
*2. Presco Plc* - Virtual
- *FY 2025*: PBT *+57.4% to N177.98bn*
- *Dividend*: Final *N14.66/share*. Total FY div: *N44.66/share*

*Sept 16*
*3. Honeywell Flour Mills Plc* - Virtual
- *FY Mar 2026*: Revenue *-3.4% to N360.85bn*. PAT *+13% to N16.49bn*
- *Dividend*: Back on register with *20 kobo/share* after 1-year break

*Sept 17*
*4. Oando Plc* - Virtual
- *FY 2025*: Revenue *-22.2% to N3.18trn*. PBT *-64.6% to N135.76bn*
- *Bright spot*: PAT *up to N204.8bn* on tax credits. Production *+32% to 32,482 boepd*

*5. Red Star Express Plc* - Virtual
- *FY Mar 2026*: Revenue *+8.5% to N23.49bn*. PAT *+7.1% to N585.26m*
- *Dividend*: *45 kobo/share* vs 35 kobo. *Zero borrowings*

*Sept 23*
*6. Secure Electronic Technology Plc* - AGM
- *FY 2025*: Revenue *-2.4% to N4.24bn*. *Loss after tax: N166.79m*. No dividend

*7. African Alliance Insurance Plc* - *EGM*
- *Challenge*: Retained earnings deficit *-N38.08bn* as at FY2022. Equity *N3.94bn*
- *Focus*: Capital injection and solvency

*Sept 24 - Busiest Day: 5 Meetings*
*8. Coronation Insurance Plc*
- *FY 2025*: Insurance revenue *+51.4% to N74.83bn*. But PAT *-36.8% to N7.52bn* due to no FX gains

*9. Learn Africa Plc*
- *FY 2025*: PBT *+59% to N1.19bn*. PAT *+59% to N753.11m*

*10. University Press Plc*
- *FY 2025*: Revenue *+14% to N3.89bn*. PBT *-37.2% to N389.52m*
- *Dividend*: *18 kobo/share*

*11. Academy Press Plc* - AGM

*12. Juli Plc* - AGM, Lagos office

*Sept 30*
*13. Omatek Ventures Plc* - AGM

*Already held:*
*14. Lasaco Assurance Plc* - AGM was Sept 3, Virtual

*What to Watch at the AGMs*
1. *Dividend approvals*: Presco N44.66 total, Honeywell 20k, Red Star 45k, University Press 18k
2. *Board elections & resolutions*: Especially at African Alliance EGM for capital raise
3. *Strategy updates*: Oando on production growth, Flour mills on cost pressure
4. *Virtual trend continues*: Presco, Honeywell, Oando, Red Star etc holding online

*Performance Split*
*Entering strong*: Presco, Honeywell, Red Star Express, Learn Africa
*Under pressure*: Northern Nigeria Flour Mills, Secure Electronic Tech, African Alliance Insurance, Coronation Insurance.

*Bottom Line*: With the *Dangote Refinery IPO on Sept 14* also pulling liquidity, expect low turnout and focus on dividend-paying names. Sept 24 will be the most active day.

Smiles

Peter Obi is not who you think he is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJGwU9VYXqw?si=-dylBrJzkZCr5gQU

Has a gun ever been pointed directly on your forehead?

Agbalowomeri:
You don leave insurance kalokalo enter Oando kalokalo

Which one be Kalokalo naa?

Na observations I dey drop. Nothing more.

Oando is bullish now

Loan given to your Benefactor, is a bad debt.

Who?

MaxInDHouse:
They are sinning against their own body not the holy spirit! 1Corinthans 6:18
You can't sin against God's holy spirit when you don't know God's will sinning against the holy spirit means knowing God's will and criticizing or slandering those doing it that's why Jesus said:

“For this reason I say to you, every sort of sin and blasphemy will be forgiven men, but the blasphemy against the spirit will not be forgiven. For example, whoever speaks a word against the Son of man, it will be forgiven him; but whoever speaks against the holy spirit, it will not be forgiven him, no, not in this system of things nor in that to come." Matthew 12:21-32

If anyone hate or beat Jesus for claiming he is God's son such a person may be forgiven for ignorance but when you know what the Christ supposed to do and speak abusively of Jesus' works then you can't be forgiven because it's not Jesus that's doing the works but the holy spirit in connection with him so an Jew who speaks against the works Jesus is doing after knowing what is written in the prophecies about the Christ such a person will never be forgiven.

So a prostitute is selling her body for money as she felt the injustice and prejudice in the world that's why God favored a prostitute who later became faithful {Joshua 2:9-13} and also made sure her name is included in the lineage of Christ's ancestors.

Let's see Jesus resurrect people without remembering his great grandmother: Rahab of Jericho! Matthew 1:5

Hmm

Agbalowomeri:
So Transcorp has gotten back to original N8+ before reconstruction. 60% down from its ATM

ATM or ATH?

*Aradel Holdings’ 3,000 BOPD gasoline unit*:

*Project Snapshot*

*Unit*: 3,000 barrels per day gasoline production
*Site*: Ogbele Refinery, Eastern Nigeria.
*Total Refinery Capacity*: 11,000 BOPD
*Strategic Position*: Will be the _only_ operating domestic gasoline source outside of Dangote Refinery once live.
*Timeline*: Commissioning target *H1 2027*.
*Construction Status*: Mechanical completion achieved *mid-2025*.

*Why This Matters*

1. *Supply gap play*: Nigeria still imports ∼80% of gasoline. A domestic 3,000 BOPD unit reduces FX pressure and captures refining margins locally.
2. *First-mover outside Dangote*: No other private refiner currently has operational PMS output. That gives Aradel pricing power in the southeast/south-south region.
3. *Margin upside*: Gasoline typically earns higher margins than diesel/AGO. If Aradel can sell at deregulated prices, this shifts their product mix toward higher-value output.

*Key Risks / Delays to Watch*
1. *Expertise deficit*: Specialized chemical commissioning engineers are scarce globally. This is the #1 reason for the 2-year gap between mechanical completion and commissioning.
2. *Feedstock logistics*: Sourcing sweet naphtha + hydrogen reliably. Any disruption here delays ramp-up.
3. *Power reliability*: Upgrades ongoing. Refineries can’t run intermittently - power stability is critical for H1 2027 target.

*What to Monitor Between Now and 2027*
- *Q4 2025 - Q2 2026*: Hiring/contracting of commissioning team. Announcements here de-risk timeline
- *Feedstock contracts*: Any long-term naphtha/hydrogen supply deals signed
- *Power infrastructure*: Completion of facility power upgrades
- *Policy*: PMS subsidy removal remains. If policy reverses, refinery margins compress

With Aradel currently at N1,413.00, this is the main 2026/2027 catalyst.
If commissioning slips past H1 2027, sentiment will likely stay soft.
If they hit H1 2027 and ramp to 3,000 BOPD smoothly, it’s a re-rating event because earnings shift from crude sales to refined products.

Most important, never accept any form of insult from any lady. No man deserve to be insulted by any lady.

Ocallen:
Is Aradel coming home? Circa #1200.

What goes up will surely come down some day.

Some are waiting for Seplat to return to circa 10,000

sboga:

time to sell all dem insurat toks.....dump dem all...d full sector dey joke...
custodial - n 10
men - n 1
aiico - 50 kobo
mansard - 10 kobo

rest are irrelevant
see d naicom chiarman dey collect lashings inside efcc ....dem don disturb d big boys i.e nicon....d lashing dem collect no b small....
come issue cicucular deny d lashing ....but d truth dey out
black and blue dat dia cartoon commissionar dey collect am well well
omo

I knew that no smoke without fire.

deathwing:
Aradel don finally vomit

*The Quiet Fortune: Samuel Dossou-Aworet & $1.4B in Nigerian Oil*🛢️

*Who is Samuel Dossou-Aworet?*
- *81 years old, Benin Republic-born engineer*
- *Ex-oil boss*: Ran Gabon's oil sector for 13 years.
- *Profile*: "Operator who became an owner" - rare path. Most billionaires in African oil are either founders or financiers. He came from running the actual operations.
- *Vehicle*: Holds stakes through *Petrolin* companies — private vehicles that "almost no one tracks".

*The Holdings: ∼$1.4 Billion*
Quietly holds significant shares in *2 of Nigeria's biggest independent oil companies*:
1. *Seplat Energy* - NGX/LSE listed independent, major gas + oil producer
2. *Aradel Holdings* - Formerly Niger Delta Exploration, now a full integrated player.

This makes him one of the largest individual shareholders in Nigerian independents, but it’s structured in a way that flies under the radar.

*Why this matters*

1. *The "Quiet" Angle*: Unlike Dangote or Adenuga, he built wealth without public listings, press, or politics. All through private Petrolin holdings.
2. *Operator Edge*: Having run a national oil company in Gabon gives him technical + government relationship advantage that financiers don’t have.
3. *Nigerian Indigenization Play*: Shows how non-Nigerian Africans are now major owners in post-IOC Nigeria. As Shell, Exxon, Chevron divest, people like Dossou-Aworet are buying.
4. *Timing*: Memo dropped right as Nigerian oil is hot — same week Dangote Refinery won a court order vs the regulator.

*Key Takeaway*
_The real edge in African oil now belongs to technical operators who turned into owners during the IOC divestment wave._ Dossou-Aworet is a case study.

Green represent Hope. Red represent Panic.

yMcy56:
So investors funds are not protected?
Dey play Sir..
If NGX falls for 5 consecutive days non-stop with all stocks shedding -10%, then you'll know SEC and others have the duties to protect people's funds and instill confidence in the market.

COVID time was due to worldwide pandemic, it was abnormal period......and as soon as there was green light, the MMs and stakeholders swung into action (even before the 🍏 light, they were working in the background)....
That was why many investors started having confidence to be buying back again.
* The rate at which stocks were sold at any available price and funds exited could have crashed the whole market if the regulators had not done anything about it that time.

NGX is international market, there's the need to continuously protect it's image.

*Regulators like NAICOM, SEC, CBN are not meant to guarantee profit.*
Their job is to make sure the game isn’t rigged.

*Their job is basically to protect you FROM BEING SCAMMED*.
This means:
- *Disclosure*: Companies must tell the truth in financial statements
- *Fraud prevention*: No fake recapitalisation, no Ponzi schemes, no mis-selling of insurance
- *Solvency oversight*: Making sure insurers/banks actually have the money they claim
- *Market integrity*: Stopping insider trading, market manipulation
- *Consumer protection*: Clear policy terms, fair claims process.

*Their job is NOT to protect you FROM LOSING MONEY*.
This means:
- *Investment risk is yours*: If you buy shares and the market crashes, that’s business risk
- *Insurance claims can be denied*: If your policy excludes it, regulator won’t force payment
- *Companies can fail*: Even after recapitalisation. NAICOM ensures they meet minimum capital, not that they can never go bankrupt
- *No bailouts for bad decisions*: Regulators don’t insure you against bad investments

*Why the distinction matters*
If regulators tried to "protect from losing money", they’d have to:
1. Guarantee returns → which creates moral hazard
2. Stop all risky businesses → which kills innovation and growth
3. Bail out every failure → which taxpayers end up paying for

Instead, the rule is: *"Make the market transparent and fair. After that, adults make adult decisions."*

chimex38:
Wahala

*NAICOM vs NICON/Nigeria Re Allegations - Quick Breakdown*

NAICOM has come out strong to debunk claims of a *N100 billion recapitalisation fraud* in the insurance sector.

*What NAICOM is saying:*
1. *The report is false*
NAICOM called it "false, malicious, and a deliberate attempt" to damage public confidence. They say it was sponsored by promoters of *NICON Insurance Plc* and *Nigeria Reinsurance Corporation* — both currently under liquidation.
2. *No EFCC detention happened*
Key clarification: Commissioner *Olusegun Omosehin* and directors were NOT detained. EFCC only requested standard info as part of a routine media inquiry. NAICOM provided it as normal administrative process.
3. *Recapitalisation followed the law*
The exercise complied fully with the *Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025*. So the new capital requirements are legally binding.
4. *Court orders don’t stop NAICOM*
NAICOM says court orders cited by the liquidation promoters cannot override its statutory powers to regulate the sector.

*Why this matters - Industry Impact*
- *Goal of recapitalisation*: Strengthen insurers’ capital base so they can cover bigger risks and pay major claims.
- *Next phase*: Industry is now moving to "post-recapitalisation growth strategies".
- *NAICOM’s demand*: Formal retraction of the "fraudulent story" to protect market stability.

*Context*
This is coming right after the 2025 NIIRA recapitalisation deadline. NICON and Nigeria Re have been in liquidation proceedings for years, and their promoters have been fighting NAICOM’s regulatory actions in court. NAICOM is basically saying: "don’t use fake fraud claims to fight liquidation."