₦airaland Forum

yMcy56:
So investors funds are not protected?
Dey play Sir..
If NGX falls for 5 consecutive days non-stop with all stocks shedding -10%, then you'll know SEC and others have the duties to protect people's funds and instill confidence in the market.

COVID time was due to worldwide pandemic, it was abnormal period......and as soon as there was green light, the MMs and stakeholders swung into action (even before the 🍏 light, they were working in the background)....
That was why many investors started having confidence to be buying back again.
* The rate at which stocks were sold at any available price and funds exited could have crashed the whole market if the regulators had not done anything about it that time.

NGX is international market, there's the need to continuously protect it's image.

chimex38:
Wahala

mikeapollo:
So the Finance Ministry authorized NAICOM (regulatory) officers to commit an act against the law? I don't get it.
If so, why is the Minster not being questioned as well?

ghm:
Thanks for the remark.

You actually brought another dimension of concern. I had that before, and my response is below. I initially thought I would go in heavily, but decided to do due diligence instead. Please note that despite my response, I am still learning, and I like the discourse.

On the "$47 billion for just a refinery" point:
You're right that standalone refiners rarely command such valuations. Turkey's Tupras – with comparable combined capacity across four refineries – is valued at about $12 billion . US-listed HF Sinclair, with roughly 678,000 bpd capacity, sits around $16 billion .

So why is Dangote different? Because it's not being priced as a standalone refiner.

1. Capacity is doubling, not static
The refinery currently operates at 700,000 bpd – surpassing its 650,000 bpd nameplate capacity after a 72-hour performance test with UOP in February 2026 . A second 700,000 bpd train is already under construction, targeting mechanical completion by end-2028 and bringing total capacity to 1.4 million bpd. DR is also more efficient than other refineries in that it converts approximately 92% of every barrel into clean transport fuels, with cash operating costs below $3 per barrel – among the lowest-cost refiners globally At that scale, it would surpass India's Jamnagar as the world's largest single-site refinery.

The IPO proceeds are earmarked for this expansion, which is estimated at $12.4 billion – about 38% below what Phase 1 cost, because it replicates existing configuration on the same site .

2. The financials already support the valuation
In H1 2026 alone, the refinery posted:

Revenue: N19.47 trillion ($13.91 billion)
Profit after tax: N2.55 trillion ($1.82 billion)
EBITDA: $2.60 billion – nearly five times its full-year 2025 figure

Gross refining margin rose to $24.50 per barrel, up from $13.70 in 2025 and $10.70 in 2024 . Average utilisation hit 83.6% .

3. Analysts have independently validated the valuation
Two equity research reports published on September 7, 2026:

Chapel Hill Denham valued the refinery at approximately $62.5 billion
Renaissance Capital valued it at $53.89–$62.09 billion

Both modelled the Phase 2 expansion. Chapel Hill Denham described it as "relatively de-risked" because the second train replicates existing infrastructure with engineering and licensing already in place .

4. On the "100% return requires $100bn valuation" concern
You're right that doubling the share price from N525 would require a valuation approaching $100 billion. But capital appreciation is not the only return path. The refinery's cash generation supports dividends, and the expansion case provides a pathway to higher earnings.

At N525, the implied P/E ratio is roughly 30 based on estimated earnings of N14 per share . That compares favourably with Aradel (above 20) and Seplat (above 15) on the NGX .

5. What's the risk?
Renaissance Capital flagged that each year of delay in Phase 2 could "materially reduce the refinery's value" . The base case assumes commissioning by 2030, versus management's 2028 target .

Other risks: refining-cycle volatility, crude supply constraints, FX movements, and operational disruptions .

Bottom line:
The valuation isn't crazy for a standalone refinery – because it's not being priced as one. It's being priced as a platform that will double capacity, integrate petrochemicals, and reshape Atlantic basin product flows .

Whether that justifies $49 billion today depends on execution. The analysts covering it seem to think the expansion is achievable. But they're pricing in execution, not certainty.

I hope this adds to the discourse.

sopesupi:
Is the e-Naira still a valid tender?

Does anyone own or trade using the e-Naira?

Is the value still 1 to 1 against the Naira?

Please I need validated feedback on this

UchihaRhaegar:
Apparently Morgan Capital's app is now available

Pakute:
https://dailypost.ng/2026/09/05/peter-obi-dropped-money-in-ekiti-lere-olayinka-dismisses-i-dont-give-shishi-claims/

Dobnews:
https://www.dobblog.online/2026/09/yemi-solade-reveals-he-was-paid-to.html


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdX9ctA7u88?si=Y4W1IpCB2sMqamO7

What do you think about Yemi Solade’s revelation?

Ezeama400:
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1NC1LEXjFG/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Racoon:

We are amending our Supplemental Notice of Evidentiary Exhibits to the @uscourts to include the attached video transcript. Based on our review, we believe this evidence challenges Nigerian President Bola Tinubu’s (@officialABAT) attempt to invoke privacy protections over the @FBI… pic.twitter.com/BnnJjNp3UE

— Von Batten-Montague-York, L.C. (@batten_von) September 7, 2026

Okpebholo1:
https://independent.ng/tinubu-edges-obi-by-1067-votes-in-69110-person-oxford-metro-poll/

Ofunaofu:
https://punchng.com/obi-ignored-protocol-courting-trouble-benue-commissioner/?amp

Enochi:
The Dangote Refinery IPO is getting a lot of attention today, and understandably so.

But one detail caught my attention: the reported minimum subscription is just 10 shares at ₦525 each — ₦5,250.

That makes me wonder about something we haven't seen discussed nearly as much.

What does actually owning those 10 shares mean for an ordinary Nigerian?

Not the headlines about the size of the IPO or Dangote's valuation. I mean the practical side.

If someone puts ₦5,250 into the offer:

What exactly do they own?

Where does that money go?

Do they become entitled to dividends?

What happens if the share price falls after listing?

How do they eventually sell those shares?

And if the refinery raises more than ₦2 trillion, what exactly is that money going to fund?

I also think there is an important distinction worth making here:

A low minimum subscription makes an investment accessible. It does not make the investment low-risk.

₦5,250 is small enough for many people to consider participating, but the underlying investment still has the normal risks of owning shares.

Perhaps that is actually one of the more interesting aspects of this IPO.

For the first time, a major Nigerian industrial asset is being presented to ordinary investors with a very low entry point.

So, for someone considering the minimum 10 shares, what would you want to know before putting down the ₦5,250? 

fergie001:
Benue State Government

Babatunjo:
A man wanting to sleep with you is not the same as a man wanting to build with you.

Sex may get attention. Beauty may bring options. But if you want commitment, you need to become valuable to his life beyond the bedroom.

Can you bring peace? Ideas? Support? Competence? Can his life genuinely become better because you're in it?

And no, this doesn't mean abandoning your own dreams to become somebody's assistant.

The sweet spot is finding a man whose direction fits yours, so while you're helping him win, you're winning too.

If you think sex and beauty alone should be enough, the dating market is already giving feedback. Plenty men will take the sex and still not commit.

It's 2026, ladies. Wake up. 😂

Don't just learn how to attract men.

Learn how to choose the right man and build something worth committing to together.

toyeoye:
🔴 UBA extends its slide to a 5-day losing streak, down 4.44% today at ₦43.00.
The banking heavyweight has now erased most of its 2026 gains, trading just a few naira above its 52-week low of ₦34.25 and almost back to where it started the year.

KarlTom:
NL has a new UI

#cool