₦airaland Forum

Index
- gained a massive 3.60%
- DangCem also pull its weight
- very healthy break above prev resistance

Coolcash1:
@fxuser and BBM, since zenith has broken the N30 resistance level. What is the next resistance?

d moon sir , to join its peers
expect turbulence along the way

Another Ex: Wapco
- u wud note the RSi sneaked into oversold levels on d daily wt a price break above the N50 level
- the weekly RSI is also gradually making its to a 3 yr high (wh is a great signal),
- its building up nicely

dis:
dont hv any . just observing

DeRuggedProf:
Tell Fxuser I have confirmed now, this his MACD crosses above d zero line on the weekly na JET......

my brother,
its even more exciting when all that u have been studying & reading comes together, and it takes time to undo old thinking walai
such a wonderful experience
i'm back listening to dat Dr Elder audio u shared wt emphasis on bullish trends & human behaviours . .
i thank u again for the audio ! It brought everything together
#Bless

Transcorp
- ff fcmb and diamond behind ,while they chase fidelity
- we shud retest N2 psychological barrier before weekend



#HOLDStillPeople

Big 4 banks

- much slower consolidation
- Zenith taken the led with breaking out above N26 , firmly opening above N30
- GT is on another level of its own
- its UBA & Access turn , both breaking above N11 wt support / stop loss at N10 (former psychological resistance lvl shud act as support)

Investnow2017:
My dear @Prof' What are the implications of this rule? Will cherish your thoughts, pls.

We need the total market cap of all stocks trading at 50kobo and calculate how much they will be worth at 1 kobo ... that shud shave some lil of the index but not sure by how much yet

NSE Index
- congrats everyone in breaking 40k on d daily ! !

DeRuggedProf:
Thank God I am learning here to become a 'LAZY' trader in the future.....

NB: Lazy trader = Experienced Patient Trader.

yes oh ..
less is more

If ur account balance is making ur fingers itchy, stop staring at it and go make a sandwich or sumfin

DeRuggedProf:
I was told by BBM and FXUSER that crosses above the MACD zero line are more reliable and powerful than crosses below the zero line...
I also understood that you have to catch the trend early.
I also understood that a gradual/steady build up towards the resistance is better in BOMBING it and escaping gravity, than a rush towards the resistance. In which case, energy is already exhausted along the way....

BBM/FX, did I lie against you?

No sir , spot on boss

Also when the RSI breaks into the oversold level in all time frames , such an alignment is hardly seen .
One must learn to sit very still like J Livermore advised (note to self here)

GTay:
@FX and BBM could you please share some technical insight on UACN, thanks

shud retest N19, close above is a breakout

DeRuggedProf:
CASH, they say is KING....

all portfolios on this forum shud be hitting 52wk highs and breaking prev resistance levels

Agbalowomeri:
For those still keeping cash, the longest green candle this year will be January and May

lolx . . leggo

Big Cap
- just shy to 40k index
- we can safely say bye bye ahead
- with Nbrew 12 billion mopping and DangCem breaking N230 wt GTB smoking N44 ... da captain has left d shores

Agbalowomeri:
Will UAC-prop return to double digit?
Oga Fuxer?

this Tidal Wave will lift all manner of man !
lolx

umm Mail from FSDH (narrative don change mouth)

Quote below

Ø FSDH Research expects business profit and consumer income to grow higher in 2018 than in the last three years
Ø Our analysis of the recent data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on the business and consumer expectations confirms this position
Ø The surveys that the CBN conducted in December 2017 show that the expectations of firms and consumers about the next 12 months improved from previous months.
Ø The improvement in the business expectations should drive business expansion and increase the employment of labour
Ø The increase in consumer expectations will increase spending which will have positive impact on businesses
Ø The interrelationship between the two economic agents (business and consumer) will drive business profit and consumer income
Ø The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report that the CBN published for the month of December 2017 shows improved business activities in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors
Ø We expect the anticipated growth in the business profit and consumer income to drive equity market investments and position corporates to access long-term capital needed for expansion
Ø Banks should also be more favourable to extend credit to both businesses and individuals, leading to a growth in the National Disposable Income
Ø The recent drop in the yields on the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) should also lower the borrowing cost for the business sector, boost production activities and increase profits.

End Quote

DeRuggedProf:
My EXTREMELY FATAL FORMULA of fair price based on this data, IF its is ALL Q3:

++++
FO: N3.

lolll. chai wicked

Transcorp
- SP is trading above fri close wh is healthy and a good build up to resistance
- to those who like TA, pls looks at the weekly chart and see how the 2 yr inverted H&S on d weekly is forming nicely, the neckline is that wicked N2 level , wh is d Highest Weekly Close in d last 2 years
- so there are many sellers packed there ( . . all those bitter people from years past and dem extended family members that have been carrying the losses for over 2 years and they are VERY bitter & eager to get out at ''break even'')
- anyway it's a very important psychological level for everyone
- So a break above is bullish but we have to expect a serious retest by profit takers and the bitter holders
- that retest will open another opportunity for those who wud like to join in or get out , watever ur strategy is.

Note to Self
just hold , remain unshaken, stop that itchy finger lol and keep calm


Dis:
still holding.
stop loss was 1.35

locodemy:
From experience,whenever a stock is close to its 52wks high,it doesnt pullback till it breaks it.
We will see #2.00 this week.I can rest at that point.

bit come oooo why una eyes to waka for all stocks.una be ole for stocks?

chai your TA is spot on sir

BullBearMkt:
...if I may take it from @fxuser - Let's use a simple analogy of a physical commodity, say Rice
-I know there are times when prices move so low and people pump money to buy more(higher volume). This isn't moving together.
If rice falls today, many consumers and retail traders will quickly buy more since they now see it cheaper than usual. Rice price and volume (buyers' participation are not moving together here).
-There are also times that when prices are rising, people continue to buy more. Here prices go higher and volumes does too. I believe this is what you mean.
What will happen along the line is that, major rice distributors will want to make more profits and gradually start increasing rice price, while volume may remain the same/or slightly increase as more buyers will be coming in for fear that the price will soon be out of reach.
As major rice distributors increases the price, buyers' participation start to decrease; it is now out-of-reach for certain people. Some people might want to try Tuwo or other similar products like rice

-The third scenerio is when prices are up and people want to buy and bid higher, but the holders don't want to sell in anticipation that prices will continue to go higher. Hence anyone who buys usually buys a small volume because people don't want to sell.
"If it is not Panadol, e no fit be like panadol" goes the popular advert. Many people now wants to eat the real rice, buy for festivals, ceremonies etc and ready to pay for current price. Major distributors saw this as opportunities to make more profits, so they keep increasing the price but alas ONLY FEW CAN AFFORD IT AND EVERYBODY IS SHOUTING THIS GOVERNMENT IS BAD.

This is also biting hard on the profit margin of the distributors (some listening govt can even intervene through some incentives), and so major rice distributors will then gradually start reducing the price while more people will be happy to stock their homes and shops with rice.

IT'S ALL ABOUT DEMAND AND SUPPLY

lol
just catching up

Timing is Everything

- quick thot on Nbrew
- noticed higher opening + big vol (over 60m traded valued > N8 bln
- after a disappointing q3 , Sp took a 30% correction from N190 to N130
- and Sp been trying to hake off bears , still trading under 50dma

What was the Issue
- '' NB’s Q3 sales of N73.7bn grew by 13% y/y while PBT and PAT declined by - 84% y/y and -75% y/y to N369m and N260m respectively.
- The y/y sales growth was completely offset by a combination of factors:
1) a -143bp y/y contraction in gross margin to 34.4%
2) a 16% y/y rise in operating expenses
3) a 47% y/y growth in net finance costs. These negatives led to the significant y/y PBT decline. ''

Link: https://www.proshareng.com/news/Stock%20&%20Analyst%20Updates/Nigerian-Breweries-Q3-2017-Results-Review--FX-Related-Costs-Weigh-On-Earnings/37402

Thots
- revenue is not an issue , beer still sell lol
- fx related finance cost jump ( Arrgh THIS ''WAS'' the koboko) , now that WE all know fx is no longer the issue , we can expect a reversal going fwd along with drop in loan rate and bebelo ( time will tell)
- expect this same analyst to come and change mouth by Q2 loll , na dem way


TA
- the daily RSI is break back above the 50 ( momentum is building)
- the macd is also closing in on d zero line
- i expect the SP to break back above the 50dma
- the 10 and 20 dma have formed a higher low (umm ) both are sloping upwards
Chart: https://invst.ly/6a30t

Timing
- those who like bottom or support entry , this is what u have been waiting for

Recommendation for those who like '' long term play Hold ''
Entry: pref below N140
Target 1 N160
Target 2 N190
Risk 7%
Reward: 20% (Target 1)
Support / Stop Loss: N130
Duration: long hold , this stock is not explosive

Dis
(pls adhere to stop loss, i will not be held responsible for your trades)
DYOR: do your own research
DYODD: do your own due diligence

as we say in crypto
Just fill your bags & hold
hv a blessed and fruitful week ahead

kolaish:
My investment strategy varies depending on the stock I am holding. It has favoured me at least 75%. Let me give you an insight:

I bought 1m units of Transcorp @ 143k two weeks ago = N1,430,000
sold yesterday @ 1.86 = N1,860,000 That means profit of N430,000 - N15,000 (txns charges). A gain of N415,000 is to me a good investment on the above. Mind you transcorp does not have good numbers supporting it and may/may not go down to the same price I bought it, but a bird in hand is more than 20 in the bush, my gain is already in my account. Mind you, I keep monitoring it again when it has bottomed out around 165k or less, that means I will be having 1,120,000 units rather than the 1m units I am holding before, Or I may decide not to buy again and buy another stock.

But for other stock in my portfolio like DF, I decided to leave it even when I saw it going down because I know their is nos to support it and it can still go up.

Please note that no strategy is perfect in the NSE, but experience sometimes, is the best teacher.

Well done , more to come

RabbiDoracle:
If there is negative div on the weekly, and there is none on the monthly, what does it translate to.
Conversely if there is negative div on the monthly and none on the weekly, what does it mean.
Can there be negative div on the yearly but none on the weekly and monthly? If yes, can one accurately predict a fall or rise using just one periodic indicator?

Always like your questions.
1) Charts or TA dont predict , its simply human behaviour in graphical form
2) All indicators derive their data from price and volume
3) Price and Volume shud move together abi, so if one is moving higher and the other is not in agreement , we hav a divergence. This tells us that there is a ''possibility'' that this move is not real oh.
4) Monthly charts are very slow so they show d long term, what the monthly sees , d weekly and daily are blind too
5) We give more respect to the longer time frame.

Your question:
a) If there is negative div on the weekly, and there is none on the monthly, what does it translate to.
Ans:
expect a '' strong possibility '' of a change in d ''medium'' term trend but the long term is not affected (u know those scary 30 - 50% pull backs ehn)

b) Conversely if there is negative div on the monthly and none on the weekly, what does it mean.
Ans:
the trend is gradually coming to an end, but the medium is neutral (respect the longer timeframe)

c) Can there be negative div on the yearly but none on the weekly and monthly? If yes, can one accurately predict a fall or rise using just one periodic indicator?
Ans:
There are no yearly charts
No one can predict fall or rise

Summary
a divergence is simply telling us that price & volume are not moving together like they did before on different time frames

Nice one.
I have so many past examples and all. If u spotted any, pls share

pluto09:
I see you.
You na don dey use crypto language for here, FOMO, MOON, hmnn

lollx yes boss ! ! make FUD enter now , everywhere go scatter

#Tron

Revibe:
Likely pull back to 2.73 Fibo Retracement level (38.2)
MACD histogram is retracing, indicating bulls are getting tired. Stochastic at overbought levels. However, based on fundamentals pull back to 38.2 level is temporary because of its year end result positive outlook.

double Like !

fxuser:
Fidelity
- some negative div on the weekly, price is making higher high , RSI is unable to keep up , making lower high
- expect some slight pull back in days to come

Dan Sugar also

Fidelity
- some negative div on the weekly, price is making higher high , RSI is unable to keep up , making lower high
- expect some slight pull back in days to come

Trade Well

- newbies there will be pull backs , some small , some big for re-entry , pls avoid over trading when prices are far away from support levels because a very good entry is not easily shaken out but poor entries will not let us hear word wen the pull back comes

- most of these guru's hv been sitting still waiting for this move , calm down .. a good entry opportunity will present itself

My thots on transcorp , its been building up and its trend reversal classical chart 101 . The longer the time frame the higher the ''possibilities''

(dyor , dyodd)

- people tend to attach value to pricey things , so expect ''dem'' to suddenly take interest at much higher prices during d year

- u know those people that ask you '' u still de trade this stock market thing '' blah blah

- we dem to cash out in 2019