₦airaland Forum

rationalmind:



Nice one...Please give us this kind of synopsis on access

breaking out of consolidation
Needs to break N11.53 on d weekly on volume to get that explosive move
outlook is still bullish
all looking nice
Stop loss at 9.50
N9.50 is a very strong weekly support, price has not traded below N9.50 in over 25 wks
patience

mendes911:
Agba, Your Transcorp Friend don start again today.

big vol wt over 120m traded
higher price opening
soaking up pessimists
needs to rest that n2 region 52 wk High and break d damn thing
then the FOMO will kick in again and na MOON be that

Nsempa
- explosive bullish sentiment at 2pages per 4hrs
- momentum is moving above 50 moving avg and we are crossing 200dma
- next resistance Page 3000 ff page 4000
- 52 week target page page 8000
- Number of followers to triple before yr end

FBN
Update
- Break above 9.55 on d weekly is bullish (see prev comm)
- Stop loss: N8.50
- Target: 20% or watever u like
- Next Resistance: N16
-

Dis:
Please i will not be held responsible for your trade, issa new yr.
DYOD
DYOR

Agbalowomeri:
Another full bid today
For those still doubting
nse 50k here we come

loll .. na u talk am and e go happen

i don't like opening my accounts
i don't need excitement
i just want to keep improving on SITTING STILL and using the 50dma to help become a better Trend follower

Zenith
- shaking it off !

Oil
- Brent breaks $68

BullBearMkt:
DO YOU KNOW THE MARKET IS YET TO DETERMINE ITS DIRECTION THIS YEAR?
Twice I have written this posts yesterday and also deleted it the same number of times. Reasons being that I don't want to be labelled as an Alarmist and I really want people to continue enjoying the ongoing rally in NSE. However, I owe my conscience a duty to post information I think will benefit at least one person.

No doubt, lot of money is made using price and volume for technical analysis. Now focusing on the last 2 trading days in 2018, what I see is that the market is yet to make decision on where is driving the NSE index. Market opened on 02/01/18 and closed a little above its open after bears took the price lower. The next day, 03/01/18, NSE index briefly enjoyed the rally but closed below the open price. Looking at the volume, yesterday's volume which dragged the index price down is twice more than Tuesday's volume. Each day creating pin-bar! As shown in chart 1.

This is summed-up on Weekly and Monthly chart as shown in Chart 2 as indecision.

What this means technically, is that investors are yet to decide whether to continue pumping more money into the market (which will cause the rally to continue) or take money out.

Chart of NGSE 30 companies is encouraging with a "positive indecision". Chart 3.

Next couple of days will unmask the plans of Market Makers and Smart Monies. Keenly to watch out for is the volume as related to price action. Possibly the rally can continue or temporary pullback could show up...

MY TAKE
-General market direction is unclear
-Patience needed for any new entry
-To buy any stock, buy at support level (or retrace/pullback) and not at 52 week high

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

- Yeah d Index & some big caps need to over come dat -ve div from end of d yr.
- We can narrow it down to d big caps:
1- DangCement : short term bearish
2- GTB - still consolidating and may pull back further
3- Nbrew - just bearish
4- Zenith - consolidating
5- Access - consolidating / undecided
6- UBA - consolidating /undecided
7- Nestle - will hv to chk

The above make up d direction of the index and they are suffering form bullish exhaustion

Happy Investing

tritritri:
@FX user would u advice i buy now or wait after dividend ?

- buy now and more afterwards.
- SP still ard support level we can put a tight stop loss ard N8 - 8.50

- Let your winners ride folks ..
- da money is in sitting still (JL)

Afriprud /Diamond / Fcmb
- gat no chill

Transcorp
- break above 1.50 on vol #super
- the real test is 52 week high ! #leggo
- run patiently

FBN
- weekly closure above 9.55 issa breakout
- first target is N16.23
- chart: https://invst.ly/68wbj

umm

fxuser:
Very decent yr end.

Fcmb
- massive breakout to close the year
- daily , weekly and monthly all breaking out in some unexpected price action above 1.40 levels
- weekly RSI also breaking into oversold levels is good, not happened in 12 years

Diamond
- similar with above
- 20dma crossing 50dma on d weekly for the first time since 2014
- both showing d end of a very long down trend
- interesting times ahead

Transcorp
- massive monthly volume spike above mth average
- over a billion traded in Dec
- SP still finding support above 1.40
- u know vol precedes price action
- watch for break above 1.50 in days or weeks to come
- all 3 hv weekly macd above zero wtgood possibilities ahead

Updated / Continuation
fcmb / diamond
- breaking out further on vol
- higher opening on d daily /weekly/monthly with RSI in explosive zone
- hold if u have
- fcmb next line of resistance is N1.90

Transcorp
- still soaking up d vols wt a high higher opening & closing
- still needs to break 1.50 on volume , needs better FOMO to test prev highs
- if ur considering , stop loss at 1.40 support level


Fidelity / Afriprud
- d conductor left before passengers cud sit lollz
- next leg started !

Ucap
- breaking away from support levels, SP to test ATH in coming days or weeks


#BuyTheRumourSellTheNews

DeRuggedProf:
Happy to read from you.
We are expecting a 'comprehensive summary', for END OF YEAR 2017, on selected stocks from you.....
Heading to buy pop corn, then look for a good palm tree on a serene beach to read your exhilarating posts......
You can technically usher us into 2018.


NB: I have neither bought nor sold since my position disclosure. I am gradually overcoming itchy fingers......

been marinating and meditating on d charts to remain objective ohh loll deProf

NSE Index & Banking Index
- interestingly the index gives short term concern despite the long term bullish outlook
- managed to squeeze a close above 38k making a higher high on d weekly but RSI is making lower highs = negative divergence
- i see this as bullish fatigue esp with the big caps (big banks +NB & DangCem)
- most show similar signs of -ve divergence
- it's possible we may see a light pull back or shaking out in the big caps in Jan
- looking fwd

Coolcash1:
Please what is the chart saying about transcorp, diamond and fcmb...

Very decent yr end.

Fcmb
- massive breakout to close the year
- daily , weekly and monthly all breaking out in some unexpected price action above 1.40 levels
- weekly RSI also breaking into oversold levels is good, not happened in 12 years

Diamond
- similar with above
- 20dma crossing 50dma on d weekly for the first time since 2014
- both showing d end of a very long down trend
- interesting times ahead

Transcorp
- massive monthly volume spike above mth average
- over a billion traded in Dec
- SP still finding support above 1.40
- u know vol precedes price action
- watch for break above 1.50 in days or weeks to come
- all 3 hv weekly macd above zero wtgood possibilities ahead

Mkt Closed , wat a Year Indeed
Happy New Year Ahead Wonderful People
May your losses be way smaller & your Wins be much bigger .. amen

BullBearMkt:
...Technically WAPCO has breached a major rule, i.e it was showing daily accumulation while the weekly is bullish. With this, the price suppose to rally, howbeit small. Now the SP is below the accumulation price (dotted line) and it most likely going to test the next trading-zone which is shown on the chart to be between 37 and 39. Failure to hold at the level will mean Currentprice will be happy to welcome the stock below 30. However, I think it will put on a good fight at 34/35 if the major shareholders still love the company.

Nice one

Infinitisi:
Hi @fxuser please can you explain what you mean when you say +ve divergence and -ve divergence and the general implications for both.

@BullBearMkt and other TA faithfuls can also put in a word.

Thank you.

-ve Div
Negative divergence happens when the price of a security is in an uptrend and a major indicator - such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), price rate of change (ROC) or relative strength index (RSI) - heads downward.

+ve Div
Is da opposite of above

Reading:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/divergence.asp

It helps us to sense when d music is over, for now d dj is still playing
lolx

tritritri:
@fxuser Guess u mean portfolio re-balancing and not the Stop loss limit. trying to rebalancin not to exceed ur risk limit or reduce ur risk limit on each trade. it works by taken profit if it goes high or average down if it goes low.

I mean portfolio exposure or sizing.
http://traderhq.com/trading-strategies/what-position-sizing-strategy-is-for-you-equal-risk-equal-dollar/

fxuser:
Leeme try better
Example :
Capital : N1,000,000
Risk Limit : 1% (or 10k .. DO NOT Confuse dis with stop limit)
Stock pick: Ucap
Entry Price : N3.30
Exit: N4.00
Stop Loss: N3.00
(u pick ur own enttry , stop loss, exit )

Calculation / Ans:
Acceptable Units to BUY = 33,333
Total Cost: N110,000
Potential Reward: N23,333
Loss ''IF'' SP drops to N3.00 stop loss = N10,000

Now let adjust Risk limit to 2%

Example 2 :
Capital : N1,000,000
Risk Limit : 2% (or 20k .. DO NOT CONFUSE this again WT stop limit or watever)
Stock pick: Ucap
Entry Price : N3.30
Exit: N4.00
Stop Loss: N3.00
(u pick ur own enttry , stop loss, exit )

Calculation / Ans:
Acceptable Units to BUY = 66,667
Total Cost: N220,000
Potential Reward: N46,667 (u can ignore this and set ur own potential target price)
***
Loss ''IF'' SP drops to N3.00 / stop loss = N20,000
***

So you are only risking 2% of capital in example 2 and 1% of capital in example 1
Also, if u change ur stop loss, number of units will also change but your risk remains d same
u shud be able work round dis, u seem to like calculating

pluto09:
Good analysis.
I however think fxuser is a master of his game and he might be doing well than most FA guys here.

Leeme try better
Example :
Capital : N1,000,000
Risk Limit : 1% (or 10k .. DO NOT Confuse dis with stop limit)
Stock pick: Ucap
Entry Price : N3.30
Exit: N4.00
Stop Loss: N3.00
(u pick ur own enttry , stop loss, exit )

Calculation / Ans:
Acceptable Units to BUY = 33,333
Total Cost: N110,000
Potential Reward: N23,333
Loss ''IF'' SP drops to N3.00 stop loss = N10,000

RabbiDoracle:
You will just get HBP!!!
You will be making money for the stockbroker!
If you invested N1m and it drops by 2%, you will sell off.
Let's get a better understanding of your strategy:
You buy a stock X at N1 and the broker charges you 1.5% on your buy. You will pay N15,000 to your broker first. Then they will use the remainder to buy you stock X. You will get 985,000 units.
If after buying, stock X loses 2%, you will sell off.
2% loss on N1 buying price is 98kobo. So you will sell 985,000 units at 98kobo.
Amount that would be realised will be N965,300.

Broker says that you will pay 1.8% for the sell commission. So you pay N17,375.44!!!

You have a final value of N947,924.6 in your portfolio.

Now let's see who is gaining/losing amongst the market, the broker and you.

You: N1,000,000 - N947,924.6 = N52,075.4

Market: 2% of your sum invested (N985,000) = 0.02 X N985,000 = N19,700

Broker: buy + sell commission= N15,000 + N17,375.4= N32,375.4

What this means is that a greater percentage of the money you lost went to the broker

And that is (32,375.4 ÷ 52,075.4) X 100%= 62% of the money you lost went to the broker. While market only took 38%.

Stop working for the brokers!!!

NO
wrong calculation .. not drop by 2%

Toluway:
Doesn't make sense in stock trading habitual fluctuations are inevitable. Going in and out, na wahala. More expensive in the overall. There are technicalities. There is wisdom.
Abeg, no vex .

haba no big deal .. so far d size of a trade does not weigh to heavily on one's mind , one shud be fine.
Some feel that there is this one trade dat wud just make it all happen
#NaSo

emmanuelewumi:
The corporate gift of Dangote flour was the bomb, my wife represented me at the AGM. Alhaji brought more than enough truck loads of gifts and the daughter who is a director personally supervised the distribution. The market price of the bag where the corporate gifts were packed is more than the value of the shares most shareholders have in the company.

Shareholders have named Alhaji " Omoluabi of Lagos".

chai

DeRuggedProf:
NO COMMENT.......

Prof monthly activity lol
Oct Vol 260 mln
Nov Vol 294 mln
Dec Vol 756 mln . . um

tritritri:
Hahaha dat is good...it helps one avoid losses but at the same time it limit one to big profit..

chai .. summarized like a boss
i realized i was under trading sef with some positions and over trading with others

#Nailed

i no be guru oh
stop loss is my teacher
my risk exposure never exceeds 2% max of capital .
i dont really look at it from d 50% angle .. i look at it from d risk angle , so if drops to my stop loss and let say my capital is say N1m , i wont lose more than 10k (1%) . . if u apply this risk mgt method to calculate how many shares u shud be exposed too .. u wud see some dramatic adjustments

so even if i want to add more dangflour for example but my risk exposure will exceed 1% of capital, then it means hav bought to many shares and tending toward recklessness. the only way to increase my holdings wud be to increase capital rather dan over trade or increase your risk limit to say 3% (u dont want to lose more dan 30k per trade )

i hope im making sense

fxuser:
Transcorp
- still finding support above 1.40 .. big trades
- buyers still soaking up d massive over head supply

Transcorp
- still soaking up d over head supply
- nice build up

Momoney54:
Thanks Fx user for the analysis and all for the active and useful inputs. I have noticed that when the market is bullish then this thread is quite active and when it is bearish then there is a lull. To more bullish days.....

- no p bro
- no one likes watching paper profits disappear or current prices retrace towards their entry zone.
-we need to bulls to rest well for Q1 at least

Brent
- weekly still bullish , SP remains above $64

big 4 banks
- all still showing - div on d weekly #caution