₦airaland Forum

megawealth01:
It seems you haven't been following my thesis. I'm not making these arguments out of hatred or political sentiment. I have said it here before that I personally benefited from Jagaban's administration when he was Governor of Lagos State.

My concern has never been about who I like or dislike politically; it is about the welfare of ordinary Nigerians. I simply cannot reconcile the pursuit of political power with a situation in which the masses are subjected to unbearable poverty, hardship, and suffering. My criticism comes from a place of genuine concern for the people, not hatred for any individual.

But you haven’t answered my question. Would you have left the subsidy and naira the way they were in 2023?

Streetinvestor2:
Do you have investment on ngx
That will go a long way for people here to be responding to your post wisely
we will like to verify u

I have given you a reply to this question before. Yes, I have investments in NGX. Is there a problem?

megawealth01:
Obafemi Awolowo stands out for his record as Premier of the Western Region, particularly in education, healthcare, and public administration. His achievements are worth examining, even though his policies and political legacy remain open to debate.

I am talking of the no 1 seat specifically ie prime minister/ president. But see how you struggled to pick one.

megawealth01:
Nigeria is in the situation it finds itself today partly because of the harsh economic policies introduced under Jagaban’s administration. He needs to adopt a more compassionate approach, ease the burden on the masses, and ensure that the people feel the positive impact of governance. Economic reforms should not come at the expense of the people’s welfare; leadership must balance difficult decisions with empathy, social protection, and a genuine commitment to the well-being of citizens.

If you were Jagaban, what would you do differentl? You think Jagaban knowing he would come for reelection deliberately wants the people to suffer? Really?

HesInMe:
250 million people, and we can't find one competent person? Really? Even the lottery has better odds. These arguments in defence of status quo are getting crazier by the day. The other day, someone suggested everybody has a drug dealer on speed dial.

Name one competent Nigerian president in history aside maybe Tafawa Balewa (still highly debatable too). Even now, name one really competent politician in the major/popular political class contesting for presidency.

mikeapollo:
Because of the corruption in Nigeria, being good, honest, sincere and truthful with integrity, is more important that just having ''capacity''.
The so-called ''capacity'' can be used to do the wrong things! Thieves also have ''capacity''!

Again, men of capacity are not necessarily scarce; what we lack are men who are sincere, have integrity and truthfulness to lead and do what is right for the country!
Even if men of capacity are scarce, we can still find a few ones to appoint in strategic areas and get the job done!

You are wrong. Men of capacity are very scarce in our political space and that is why we are where we are today.

pluto09:
We need men with capacity.
Managing Nigeria will require more than being good.

Exactly. I’ll take a man with brains or ability who is not necessarily good (in quote) to even a saint who is incompetent especially when it comes to running a country. Unfortunately, we have continually lacked people competent enough to take Nigeria where she belongs

Agbalowomeri:
Lol wetin I wan use Viagra for?

My papa still nack enter 80 without enhancement

All those bitter kola and agbo plus correct natural food na the real enhancement. This generation (at least within the last 50 years) and our genz’s today dey chop so so bread, butter, fries and many rubbish wen dey affect them over many years of pile up hence viagra

megawealth01:
Shettima has mentioned Obi’s name so many times that one would think he is the only opposition figure in the race. He seems to be avoiding mentioning Atiku and others, yet OBI keeps coming up in their conversations. 😂

Anyway, I just wish Nigeria the very best, whatever the people decide they want for themselves. In this coming election, my prayer is that the people will win, not the elites. May the will of the people prevail over the interests of the political class, and may Nigeria emerge stronger for it in Jesus name

AMEN 🙏

Shettima mentioned Atiku during thesame conference. Maybe your news source didn’t filter that one out for you.

megawealth01:
Let me give you a detailed finding...

Your conclusion about 2013 appears inaccurate if we measure the NGX All-Share Index in US dollars. We also need to distinguish between a gain in dollar terms and a gain in the purchasing power of those dollars.

To test your argument, let us hypothetically assume that someone invested in the entire Nigerian stock market by buying a portfolio that tracked the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) at the end of 2007, 2013 or 2023 and held it until October 2026.

1. How the NGX has performed in dollar terms

The NGX All-Share Index provides a benchmark for the overall movement of Nigerian equities. Historical data show that the index ended 2007 at approximately 57,990 points, while it finished 2008 at approximately 31,451 points. By 2023, it had risen to approximately 74,773 points.

The index stood at approximately 247,540 points on 16 October 2026, while the dollar traded at approximately ₦1,332.

Using these approximate figures, we can make the following comparisons.

Investment period Approximate NGX ASI at purchase NGX ASI in October 2026 Approximate index growth

End of 2007 57,990 247,540 +327%
End of 2013 41,329 247,540 +499%
End of 2023 74,773 247,540 +231%


These figures show the substantial increase in the index measured in naira. However, they do not tell us how much an investor gained in dollars.

To calculate that, we must account for the depreciation of the naira against the dollar.

2. What happens when we convert the returns to dollars?

For illustration, consider the approximate historical exchange rates and the dollar exchange rate in October 2026.

Purchase period Approximate USD/NGN rate at purchase USD/NGN rate in October 2026

End of 2007 ₦123 ₦1,332
End of 2013 ₦156 ₦1,332
End of 2023 ₦907 ₦1,332


The historical exchange rates are approximate reference figures, not a reconstruction of the exact exchange rate available to every investor. The 2026 rate is based on the reported market data.

Now, let us calculate the approximate dollar returns.

A. If you invested in 2023

Suppose you invested ₦1 million when the index was at 74,773 points.

Your investment would have increased to approximately ₦3.31 million if it had tracked the index perfectly.

At an exchange rate of ₦907 per dollar, your original investment was worth approximately $1,103.

At ₦1,332 per dollar, your investment would now be worth approximately $2,487.

Estimated dollar return: +125%.

Your argument is correct for this period: the index's growth substantially exceeded the naira's depreciation against the dollar.

However, this is a price-index comparison, not the exact return an investor would have earned from a portfolio of individual stocks.

B. If you invested in 2013

Suppose you invested ₦1 million when the index was at approximately 41,329 points.

Your investment would now be worth approximately ₦5.99 million if it had tracked the index perfectly.

At an exchange rate of ₦156 per dollar, your original investment was worth approximately $6,410.

At ₦1,332 per dollar, your investment would now be worth approximately $4,500.

Estimated dollar return: −30%.

This is where your argument needs correcting.

Although the NGX increased by approximately 499% in naira terms, the naira depreciated sufficiently against the dollar to leave the investment worth less in dollar terms.

The precise result depends on the dates and exchange rates used, but this calculation does not support the claim that an investor who entered in 2013 is still slightly ahead in dollars.

C. If you invested in 2007

Suppose you invested ₦1 million when the index was at approximately 57,990 points.

Your investment would now be worth approximately ₦4.27 million if it had tracked the index perfectly.

At ₦123 per dollar, your original investment was worth approximately $8,130.

At ₦1,332 per dollar, your investment would now be worth approximately $3,200.

Estimated dollar return: −61%.

Your general argument about investors who entered in 2007 is therefore supported by this illustration.

However, the outcome for someone who entered in 2008 would depend on the precise purchase date. The market fell sharply during that year, meaning an investor who bought after a substantial decline could have a different result from someone who bought at the beginning of the year.

3. What about dollar inflation?

This is another important part of your argument.

There are two different measurements:

Dollar-denominated return: How much your investment is worth in dollars today compared with its original dollar value.

Real dollar return: How much your investment's purchasing power has increased or decreased after accounting for inflation in the United States.


An investor who entered the NGX in 2023 could have gained approximately 125% in dollar terms under our assumptions. But the investor's real return would be lower after accounting for US inflation.

Likewise, an investor who entered in 2013 would have experienced a decline of approximately 30% in dollar terms in our illustration. After accounting for US inflation, the loss of purchasing power would be greater.

For an investor who entered in 2007, the decline would be greater still.

Therefore, dollar inflation is not the only problem for the 2013 and 2007 investors. The depreciation of the naira against the dollar is already sufficient to produce a negative dollar return in these examples.

4. There is one major limitation to this analysis

The calculations above use the NGX All-Share Index as a proxy for the Nigerian stock market. They do not represent the exact returns of an investable portfolio.

An investor cannot ordinarily purchase the entire index simply by buying one security. Actual returns depend on the stocks selected, transaction costs, dividends received, corporate actions, and the exchange rates at which the investor converts money.

Dividends are particularly important. A portfolio that reinvested dividends could outperform the price index, potentially changing the results.

Consequently, we should not treat these estimates as definitive total-return figures.

My verdict

Your central argument-that Nigerian equities can rise substantially in naira terms while investors lose money in dollar terms-is absolutely valid.

However, using the approximate historical index levels and exchange rates above, I would revise your conclusion as follows:

2023: An investor who bought near the end of the year would have made a substantial gain in dollar terms.

2013: An investor would have lost approximately 30% in dollar terms using our illustrative figures, before accounting for US inflation and dividends.

2007: An investor would have lost approximately 61% in dollar terms using our illustrative figures, before accounting for US inflation and dividends.


The most important lesson is that the NGX's performance in naira terms does not necessarily reflect the returns an investor has earned in dollars. To establish the true long-term performance of Nigerian equities, we need to examine both the index and the currency in which the investor measures wealth.

Note: These are approximate, year-end-to-October-2026 price-index calculations, not a verified dividend-reinvested total-return series. The figures should be refined using consistent historical closing prices and exchange rates before being presented as definitive investment-performance statistics.

I am using the overall market cap. Let’s keep it simple. At the end of 2013, the market cap was 13.23 trillion naira ($82.69 Billion) at an exchange rate of 160/$. In October 2026, it is at 160.83 trillion naira ($120.70 Billion) at an exchange rate of 1332.50/$. If you account for dollar inflation on the market cap between the periods, 2026 still beats 2013 but not 2007 yet.

Pesuzok:
With due respect sir, so because we have had terrible health care since 1999 we should ignore the present govt. Inability improved on it and simply vote them back because of 'reforms'. What is the federal govt doing to make the states sit up and be responsible. In the past, the fear of efcc and icpc at least put a little fear to the corrupt officials in this country.

No need discussing politics because it doesn't change the mindset of anyone. Those supporting this present govt are directly or indirectly benefiting from the govt; or they plan to benefit if it continues.

The other sets are those that feel they are comfortable enough, my prayer for them is let Nigeria don't happen to them.

The worst set of supporters are those going through the suffering in Nigeria but are blind due to tribalism.

I am done with my own political rant

Sorry EFCC have never made the public perceive the FG as being serious instead FG have always been accused of using EFCC to fight opposition even in the time of Nuhu Ribadu. Besides, EFCC can’t fight ruling Governors until they leave. The only way to make Governors sit tight is for the public to criticize and shame Governors as much as they are willing to do to the FG. This would also embolden the FG to support the public in that fight.

Streetinvestor2:
Nigerians are not in frying pan if you go around to see reality. They are already in hell.
I was in Enugu teaching hospital for 2 weeks and cried for people. How people are dumped at entrance of hospital emergency units with no help coming because they can not afford hospital money.I practically helped two people.
And the power supply to the hospital was unbelievable so to render some services was big challenge.
No wonder the baron does not believe in nigeria medical services. The good doctors have all left.Na doctors depending on AI full government hospitals
The private hospitals are something else.
Thr one doctor will take up all kind of case even issues outside his expertise

Unfortunately, what you described is nothing new in Nigeria and Nigerians have been suffering. The FG is not doing well in the healthcare sector just like they have never done well on that since 1999 but what is the Enugu state Government also doing about it?

megawealth01:
Your argument is partly correct, but the 2013 claim needs correction. Using approximate NGX All-Share Index levels and exchange rates, an investor who bought at the end of 2023 would have gained substantially in dollar terms by October 2026. However, someone who invested in 2013 or 2007 would still have lost value in dollar terms, even before accounting for US inflation.

The key point is that the NGX can rise significantly in naira terms while investors lose money in dollars because of naira depreciation. These estimates exclude dividends, which could improve actual investment returns.

In 2013, the NGX market cap was $87 Billion (if you account for inflation, that is about $120 Billion today).

mikeapollo:
F

Anybody can replace anybody!
None of them is special, so let's stop this "who can replace him" talk! It is irritating!

You’d rather jump from fry pan to fire all in the name of quickly jumping out of fry pan?

megawealth01:
WOW

Wait until I convert all my loots to dollars sha

You are still gaining in dollars if you bought the NGX as a whole in 2023 (hypothetically). You are also gaining slightly if you bought in 2013. You only lose based on dollar inflation, if you bought in 2007/2008

megawealth01:
We cannot use the performance of a handful of stocks or the personal experiences of a few investors to draw conclusions about the entire stock market. A sound assessment of the market requires a broader analysis of market indices, sectoral performance, market breadth, trading volumes, liquidity and the performance of stocks across different categories.

In the financial market, individual experiences may offer useful insights, but they are not a substitute for objective, market-wide analysis.

What of market cap? Even using all of these you mentioned above, this stock market is currently at its second highest level ever (only behind the 2007/2008 season in some indices)

Streetinvestor2:
To some people here on this thread. If you have a company today. And an applicant in bat physically and mentally state come to apply to become the manager. Ask yourself if you will accept him to handle such position.Will your family members allow you to continue to manage a family business if you find yourself in such situations too..How about companies listed on ngx.Will you support a ceo in this capacity
At it stand now,some will say even a dead body can be the president as long as he is not yet committed to the ground.
The you are quick to point fingers to ceo of companies on ngx for one thing or the other. You have no moral justification to do that to ceo of companies toi

@ Agbalowomeri you should be ashamed of always castigating wale about oando management

The question is: Who else can replace him amongst Atiku or Obi? I am not convinced we have good choices in the opposition.

megawealth01:
Fear dey catch me...

Fear dey catch you because of activist comment?

mikeapollo:
People get carried by the 125billion share count.
Less than 4 billion of the shares will be available to retail investors. Alhaji and Institutional investors hold more than 96 percent (unless there is oversubscription and Alhaji decides to allot 100%).
And by the time Lekki capacity increases to 1.4m and the Kenya refinery coming on board as well......the price would definitely shoot up.

Kenyan refinery has nothing to do with the Lekki refinery. That would be a seperate listing.

Oasisblue:
This is bad news. Has Alhaji not met his expectations since?

There is probably renewed interest from East Africa and they have to devise new mechanisms to enable them invest because there was no retail platform for outsiders prior

mikeapollo:
Please, do some checks even if you want to ALWAYS DEFEND the govt.
Based on your own figures:
Target/Budget: 1.85 * 64.5 = $119.33
Actual/Average: 1.6 * 104 = $166.4

Surely there is about $47 excess per barrel

Okay I would look into this again. The last time this was evaluated around April, I saw that there was still a shortfall of about $3 Billion due to low production.

mikeapollo:
Even if we are producing less than the target, they will still share the excess crude money whenever we achieve more revenue than the budgeted because the law that established the sharing of the money has not be abolished.

Excess crude is only applicable when production multiplied by price exceeds the budget benchmark like we had in the time of Obasanjo and Jonathan. You can do the calculation yourself and come back. Our production target is 1.85 million bpd and we have been around the 1.6 million bpd. Price was $64.5 and we average $104. You do the calculation and you get a slight shortfall.

mikeapollo:
I don't think that is correct. Our benchmark crude oil price for the 2026 budget is $64.85.
The price of crude oil has been around $80-$100 since February 28 when the Iran-US war started

What of production?

mikeapollo:
Still making the same mistake!
Who imports or buys cars? The majority of the masses living below the poverty line and earning N80,000 per annum or the minority in upper middle class?

Cat import in any society is a good measure of the middle class. This is why it fell drastically in 2023 and 2024 when consumption and our middle class were affected drastically by sudden depreciation/devaluation.

mikeapollo:
Nigeria was/is wealthy, but we misused the wealth!
Gowon, as president of Nigeria, told the whole world that Nigeria had money, i.e. wealthy nation.
During the 1970s Udoji Awards, Nigeria made huge money from crude oil due to Arab-Israeli war. The shallow, myopic govt decided to share the excess money as bonus to workers. Workers who did not own bicycle, were given so much money(bonus) to the extent that they bought things like colour tv, motorcycles, cars (Volks and 504) overnight. That is how we wasted the oil boom.
Other countries used such opportunities to build huge, serious infrastructure, which keeps sustaining their productive capacity to remain in the ''wealthy'' status today

Even currently, they are still sharing the excess crude oil money among the states and there is no accountability, no capital projects etc. Imagine if the money in the excess crude account is used to develop railway across the country, with railway terminus (stations) in each state

There is no excess crude account currently. We are still selling oil below our budget benchmark.

Bizibi:
i always stand by what I say....the one I don see alone is a big shocker. NIGERIA GET MONEY!!! forget Google or comparisons.

Abeg make we no derail.

This is our biggest problem. The biggest scam played on Nigeria was convincing us that we are a wealthy nation. We all grew up believing this falsehood. We were never wealthy except when we started coming close in the brief 2010 -2013 era (not even in the Gowon 1970’s were we anything close to wealthy) and even in our greatest era (2010 - 2013), we were clearly on shaky ground due to high oil prices which started coming down in 2014 and with it Nigeria.

Zagee:
Anybody who have sense outside pro-AePheCee will know that these steps will create a ripple effect on the cost of Goods and Services. What any sensible person would have done was to identify the NEEDS(Food , Clothing, Shelter, and Transportation), take proceeds and intervene with a subsidy in the transportation sector. This would have far reaching effect than the 75k pocket money they are doing and allegedly stealing from.

They got increased inflow and government(across all level) suddenly increased their gluttony. Prima facie failure of leadership!

How do you intervene with subsidy in the transportation sector such that it would not be abused when you only control the trains which are very few?

Agbalowomeri:
Anything anti-government you go share whether it makes sense or not. So what now happens to the Calabar end that has gone far?

Very disappointing from Tinubu and Umahi

Willie2015:
The fact that these reforms were necessary does not absolve ......
BAT’s administration of the responsibility for proper planning, sequencing, and implementation.....
Ask yourself if BAT administration actually demonstrate ....
that it assessed their combined effects, prepared adequate safeguards...
and had a credible plan for managing the transition of these reforms....

Stabilizing measures should have been part of the reform, not an afterthought.

Ultimately, the question is not simply whether the reforms were necessary to stabilise the economy.
It is whether the administration demonstrated the foresight, competence, and social responsibility
required to implement them without imposing avoidable hardship on millions of Nigerians.

Quote me anywhere: YOU CANNOT IMPLEMENT THESE REFORMS WITHOUT CAUSING HARDSHIP.

Any political candidate in 2023 who expected otherwise or told you otherwise, either deceived you or was ignorant as to what subsidy removal and a liberalised excchanged rate entails and why previous Governments could not implement them easily.

Willie2015:
Your argument is weak.
Economic reforms dont automatically translates into improved household welfare.
You cannot use the promise of future prosperity to indefinitely justify present hardship.
The Nigerian irony is simple..
For over six decades, govt have introduced various reforms...
Yet, for millions of Nigerians, the promise of a better life remains unfulfilled.
From SAP to privatisation, banking-sector consolidation,
fuel subsidy reforms, exchange-rate reforms and various poverty-alleviation programmes.
Yet, the fundamental question remains:
Where is the corresponding improvement in the standard of living of the ordinary Nigerian?

No knowledgeable person (who is not stupid) would expect improved standard of living from fuel subsidy removal and a liberal exchange rate coming together. But were they necessary for the survival of the state as at 2023? Yes.

nedu666:
The problem with tinubu achievements is that it has no impact on 99% of Nigerians. You talk about fitch rating, jp Morgan, stock market. What impact does it have on 99%. A country does not exist to work for the 1%. Are there 1 million Nigerians making money on stock market. If developed countries worked for 1%. I don't think Nigerians would be going there for sucess. A successful govt should tell us how many jobs were created, no of new factories opened, reduction in crime, no of low cost houses built, hospitals, roads etc. You cannot be boasting of fitch and Morgan

Stock market appreciation is usually not a verdict on what’s happening today but on the confidence of investors on the mid to long term prospects of a company or the economy in general.
No of jobs created and factories would depend on the NBS and I don’t know why they don’t release that like in the USA. However, the Stanbic PMI shows us that since early 2025 there have been modest job expansion and hiring. Car imports in 2026 have also rebounded and going stronger.

Willie2015:
Macroeconomic improvements are not the same thing as improvements in the standard of living.
Millions of households still struggle to afford food, rent, transportation, healthcare and education.
The ultimate purpose of reforms is for Nigerians to have the ability to feed their families,
earn a decent living, access essential services and escape poverty.
If those outcomes remain elusive, citing credit ratings, foreign investment or stock-market records
is not an adequate answer to the suffering of households.

All reforms are ultimately geared towards ensuring the economy survives so that the household standard of living you are writing about here can have a chance either now or in the future.

Without these macroeconomic pointers and stability you dismiss today, how would the so called micros survive?

If there is no stable FX rate in 2025 and 2026 for instance, wouldn’t prices keep fluctuating? If the parallel rate is way wider than the official rate and there is round tripping and price distortion, how would Government get full revenue to support farmers?

If fitch and moody do not upgrade your ratings, what would convince investors to ignore other countries in the world and bring foreign capital to your economy?

If NGX gets deepened or larger for the biggest firms in the country, doesn’t that help them employ more people thereby reducing poverty and increasing purchasing power?