₦airaland Forum

BascoVanVeli:
Shukurat Oladipo, Folashade Ijamilusi and Joy Omewa

Hmm, okay, not a bad list as well.

Judas1X:
Come to think of it, how many new players has Madugu introduced into the squad? Like actual quality players? Or is he just milking Randy's squad for every drop they're worth? This isn't even hating, I'm genuinely curious.

None actually. No above average player have been introduced by Madugu so far. Randy gave us Echiejini and Okoronkwo who are both above average in my books.

aydought:
Mr. Sarcastic! Know this and know peace! This is who Obi is. When he was the governor, I was in the same plane with him and we sat in economy together.n

And he sat by himself.

solonnachi:
Seems we only have 12 players in Super Falcons camp. Six days to WAFCON and no sign of any preparation going on. Are we really ready for this?

We know we would qualify from group stages no matter what and the group stages are always used as practice games for the super falcons especially the first two games.
Playing Ghana with such disfunction presently may have resulted in a loss and would have killed the morals of the girls. I see no point playing any top 5 ranked African team in a friendly at the moment especially if the purpose is for the girls to build team chemistry within a short time.

solonnachi:
Nigeria v Ghana friendly match called off

Better

lovewins:
But we also didn't spare Waldrum. The vast majority of persons here were critical of him whenever he invited players we believed shouldn't be in the team and when he made terrible on field decisions.

I also think it's fair to recognise what Madugu achieved with the girls however one feels about his coaching philosophy. I'm personally not a fan of his as I do not think he's the right coach for the Falcons, I however wont discount his WAFCON achievement. A second WAFCON win won't change my position btw until he replicates same success playing against top teams. The Super Falcons have dominated Africa for almost 3 decades, success has however evaded the team at the world stage. The closest we've had at achieving some success at the world stage was what Waldrum's team did at the last World Cup. The NFF's incompetence has sadly also meant he's had no opportunity to face top teams which should have given us an idea of how his team will fare against stiffer opposition. I'm hoping we get to see that soon, hopefully before the world cup, and should he achieve success on that front, I'll be his biggest fan.

I agree with your points. Just to point out that the closest we’ve had at the world stage was the quarterfinals in 1999.
Anyway, doesn’t matter for now.

TheSuperNerd:
Manageable choice. She would not make it if Plumptre was fit and if Chidinma Okeke was maybe in form. Nicole Payne only just returned to action too.

Thanks. Chidinma Okeke should have been the right replacement.

I have no problem with the list but is Ogbonna Glory a good choice?

PETERiCHY:
Trump says Iran deal will be signed Sunday, Strait of Hormuz to open immediately after


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/13/trump-iran-deal-strait-of-hormuz.html?__source=newsletter%7Cbreakingnews

BRENT is currently at circa $85,

if by tomorrow the Iran deal sails through and the straits of Hormus is opened

Next week let's expect BRENT at circa $70 which inturn will affects NGX NEGATIVELY and create FRESH BUYING OPPORTUNITIES


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Even if Brent gets to $70 next week which is Mid June, Q2 2026 would be the best quarter so far in recent times for Seplat and Aradel. This means the NGX oil sector would bounce back tremendously in July

“ Refineries are commodity businesses — they trade on margins (the “crack spread”) between crude input and refined product output, not on revenue. The right valuation frameworks are EV/EBITDA and EV/capacity, not price-to-sales. Global refineries typically trade at 4–8x EBITDA, occasionally up to 10–12x for best-in-class assets.

Dangote Group revenues have grown from $3.3B to $18B over five years, while EBITDA grew from $1.8B to $2.8B over the same period.  That EBITDA growth is notably thin for such a revenue surge — a classic refinery problem: huge topline, squeezed margins.

The refinery is projected to generate ~$27B in annual revenue at full 650,000 bpd capacity.   At the IPO target valuation of $40–50B, that’s roughly 1.5–2x revenue — which is exactly where a refinery should trade.

At 8x EBITDA on ~$2.8B EBITDA, a fair value is around $22–28B. The current IPO target of $40–50B  is arguably already stretched vs. fundamentals, likely pricing in the expansion to 1.4M bpd and commodity upside”.

Byankee:
To me, the refinery is being overvalued at $39B qoute, so what valuation will it appreciate to?

I don’t think the refinery is overvalued at $39.1 Billion. Compared to bigger refineries in Asia which people compare it with, they have a much more steady access to crude supply in Nigeria. They received 13 cargoes in May 2026 out of the 20 cargoes needed at full capacity and 15 cargoes needed for local supply.
They are in a free trade zone, meaning they would likely have better margins
The petrochemical facility is imbedded in the IPO as well.
Work to increase capacity is in full swing
Debt is low at $3.65 Billion

Saw this now

isaacosas01:
Give me one example. Just 1 example of refineries around the world of this scale with this ridiculous valuation.

I meant the amount it takes to build it.

Streetinvestor2:
Was it actually 20 billion that was used to build it.
The refinery alhaji was shifting the cost himself daily for subsidize foreign exchange from cbn..lol

Refineries of this scale around the world are actually worth that amount and even slightly more now.

isaacosas01:
There are some basics finance principle everyone in finance knows bro.
That a refinery was built for $20B doesn’t give it valuation above $20B, its doesn’t work like that.

In finance we say replacement cost ≠ market value. A refinery is worth what its cash flows justify, not what it cost to build.

This refinery exported Jet fuel of at least 158000 bpd in March and April. They supplied over 80% of Nigeria’s petrol (Nigeria is roughly a $10 Billion petrol market) in addition to petrol exports. They also dominate supply of diesel in Nigeria , and are second largest source of LPG in the country. When you add petrochemicals of roughly $100 million monthly also, the business should comfortably make close to a $2 Billion revenue on a good day while spending around $1.3 Billion on crude oil

Schemerkhiz:
Brazil is a very physical and direct team right now unlike they were in 2024 and early 2025. They isolated their attackers against US defence multiple times. Brazil a team to watch next year world cup. And I would love the Super Falcons to play against them in a Friendly game..

The superfalcons are not just it right now in my opinion and the NFF is to be blamed. No real improvement since last year.

pluto09:
I don't think that summary is correct.
The money from the IPO is going directly to alhaji and not to the company from my own understanding.
I don't think he is going to list because he wants to expand, he is doing it to improve his own worth.

He is listing because he wants to expand and achieve this by 2028

ositadima1:
I think this is a model Dangote has mastered. He will likely recover his initial investment and still retain more than 70% ownership of the business. Lol.

Another factor most people are not considering is that more refineries will enter the market very soon. BUA and several others are already planning and executing projects. They will all compete within the same space, just as Dangote Cement, BUA Cement, and WAPCO are competing today.

I don’t think BUA is still building. There is no update on this project.

deathwing:
does this valuation include Fertilizer or will that IPO be different?

It would be different. This valuation is likely just the refinery and petrochemicals together. The petrochemicals at the moment can make an extra $1.2 Billion revenue for the refinery. If the future detergent factory is linked to the petrochemicals as well then this may become a very diversified business by 2028 - 2030.

Also, it is not clear if the refinery to be built in East Africa would be a branch of the Lekki refinery or a separate business. If it becomes a branch then this valuation could easily hit the $80 Billion mark by 2030 making it the largest firm in Africa (both public and private) ahead of Sontrach of Algeria and the NNPC of Nigeria (who are currently nos 1 & 2 on the continent)

Sunrisepebble:
Yes. There is a holding period of 1 year.
Valuation $39.1bn

$39.1 Billion is reasonable given the fact that they are expanding

ppogba:
Oga, maybe you need to enlighten me. I am yet to get the logic in bringing the issue of the Naira to the Dollar rate eons ago when people are talking about prices of Shares.

They are talking about how they have lost value in real terms (usually in hard currency). You get it now?

deathwing:
For me, if you bought stock before Tinubu, when dollar was N600, fuel was N200 or so and inflation was above 22%...you need to have made like 10x between 2023 till now to just to break even. That's why I never bothered. I think 2024-2025 was a good time to come in because of fx stability.. Anything earlier and it's still just poverty olympics you are playing because the SP500 would have been a much better choice.

The current market under Tinubu beats the naira devaluation from anytime in Buhari’s era no matter how you look at it. If you bought shares in 2016, you have made gains now in dollars for most stocks.

Streetinvestor2:
Did you go through labour manifesto in 2023 .I can tell you this government is stealing from it but implementation is now the wahala. They implement some with looting from it as main target.

Name one thing you think this Government stole from it? When did Obi’s manifesto come out in 2022 again?

megawealth01:
A vast new entrant into NGX joined stockmarket so they can escape the economic situation of Nigeria. The pains NAIJA is bearing under this regime is visible on the street of the masses...

I just hope what happened in 2008 don't happen sha

My Chatgpt said it was majorly due to bank recapitalisation. That and your point may have been the major factors.

deathwing:
where did you see 937k? I believe it’s around 600k active accounts. Over the last year or two, I believe Bamboo onboarded more than 120k (I saw it somewhere). By the time Dangote IPO is done, I believe another 200k will join just based on the hype.

The data from BusinessDayNG clearly shows 937k retail accounts. Either they are wrong or the 600k data is outdated already Or (more likely) the 600k are the active accounts out of the 937k. I would check.

Edit: It seems the data is correct. 937k new accounts compared to 68k new accounts in 2023.

So total accounts could be over a million already but there were 937k new accounts. 600k new accounts gained due to bank recapitalisation only.

Streetinvestor2:
That less than 1 million people who majority won't be voting in 2027
As many in that class will say they don't have time to waste voting. The 63% hungry and poor will be the ones likely to do the voting in 2023.And many of them don't even know what ngx means

But politics aside, that growth from 68000 retail accounts to 927000 is astronomical. This means the market have become way way more liquid than in 2023. What is responsible for this? Could it be the inflation pushed young people to explore the market as a way of preserving and boosting capital?

Insecurity is still not being tackled as expected by this Government and there are lot of things I don’t like about this Government as well.

Their NGX market record however is not bad.

Agbalowomeri:
Is it that people don't understand the Islamic ideological root that Tinubu was addressing here?

They don’t. Except you remind them with Abraham and Isaac 😊

Abuja Nigeria


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRryF3kG9nA?is=E2pKwvTeOxUaKfv7

ghm:
Dangote has prepared for that anyways. The refinery is much bigger than what can rely only on a single country's consumption. It is serving and will continue to serve the region and beyond.

Then why did he take NNPC and NMPDRA to court?

franchasng:
Me and you are not on the same level or wavelength.

I don't have a Nigerian Governor.


I am only pressing for a better Nigeria for people like you. We want you guys to experience good life and good governance in your lifetime so that you will realize that Nigeria has been under bondage for years.



And for your information leadership flows from top to bottom and not from bottom to top.


If the President is performing, other lower government officials will fall in line.

Only the President have the constitutional power and resources to fight insecurity and combat corruption in all cadres of government.


The buck stops at the President's office.


A better Nigeria can only start from a better President and not Governor or Senator or LGA Chairmen

This is not true. The things that affect local people more like agriculture, sme’s support, pipeborne water, community roads are not tied to the president but Governors and LGA’s.

SonofElElyonRet:
If government eventually allows duel imports, how will this affect dangote refinery's fortunes?

Imports of 20% shouldn’t be an issue. Nigeria’s market is a $10 Billion market on a good day. Dangote can also export what is left to earn dollars right away.