₦airaland Forum

ositadima1:
I think this is a model Dangote has mastered. He will likely recover his initial investment and still retain more than 70% ownership of the business. Lol.

Another factor most people are not considering is that more refineries will enter the market very soon. BUA and several others are already planning and executing projects. They will all compete within the same space, just as Dangote Cement, BUA Cement, and WAPCO are competing today.

I don’t think BUA is still building. There is no update on this project.

deathwing:
does this valuation include Fertilizer or will that IPO be different?

It would be different. This valuation is likely just the refinery and petrochemicals together. The petrochemicals at the moment can make an extra $1.2 Billion revenue for the refinery. If the future detergent factory is linked to the petrochemicals as well then this may become a very diversified business by 2028 - 2030.

Also, it is not clear if the refinery to be built in East Africa would be a branch of the Lekki refinery or a separate business. If it becomes a branch then this valuation could easily hit the $80 Billion mark by 2030 making it the largest firm in Africa (both public and private) ahead of Sontrach of Algeria and the NNPC of Nigeria (who are currently nos 1 & 2 on the continent)

Sunrisepebble:
Yes. There is a holding period of 1 year.
Valuation $39.1bn

$39.1 Billion is reasonable given the fact that they are expanding

ppogba:
Oga, maybe you need to enlighten me. I am yet to get the logic in bringing the issue of the Naira to the Dollar rate eons ago when people are talking about prices of Shares.

They are talking about how they have lost value in real terms (usually in hard currency). You get it now?

deathwing:
For me, if you bought stock before Tinubu, when dollar was N600, fuel was N200 or so and inflation was above 22%...you need to have made like 10x between 2023 till now to just to break even. That's why I never bothered. I think 2024-2025 was a good time to come in because of fx stability.. Anything earlier and it's still just poverty olympics you are playing because the SP500 would have been a much better choice.

The current market under Tinubu beats the naira devaluation from anytime in Buhari’s era no matter how you look at it. If you bought shares in 2016, you have made gains now in dollars for most stocks.

Streetinvestor2:
Did you go through labour manifesto in 2023 .I can tell you this government is stealing from it but implementation is now the wahala. They implement some with looting from it as main target.

Name one thing you think this Government stole from it? When did Obi’s manifesto come out in 2022 again?

megawealth01:
A vast new entrant into NGX joined stockmarket so they can escape the economic situation of Nigeria. The pains NAIJA is bearing under this regime is visible on the street of the masses...

I just hope what happened in 2008 don't happen sha

My Chatgpt said it was majorly due to bank recapitalisation. That and your point may have been the major factors.

deathwing:
where did you see 937k? I believe it’s around 600k active accounts. Over the last year or two, I believe Bamboo onboarded more than 120k (I saw it somewhere). By the time Dangote IPO is done, I believe another 200k will join just based on the hype.

The data from BusinessDayNG clearly shows 937k retail accounts. Either they are wrong or the 600k data is outdated already Or (more likely) the 600k are the active accounts out of the 937k. I would check.

Edit: It seems the data is correct. 937k new accounts compared to 68k new accounts in 2023.

So total accounts could be over a million already but there were 937k new accounts. 600k new accounts gained due to bank recapitalisation only.

Streetinvestor2:
That less than 1 million people who majority won't be voting in 2027
As many in that class will say they don't have time to waste voting. The 63% hungry and poor will be the ones likely to do the voting in 2023.And many of them don't even know what ngx means

But politics aside, that growth from 68000 retail accounts to 927000 is astronomical. This means the market have become way way more liquid than in 2023. What is responsible for this? Could it be the inflation pushed young people to explore the market as a way of preserving and boosting capital?

Insecurity is still not being tackled as expected by this Government and there are lot of things I don’t like about this Government as well.

Their NGX market record however is not bad.

Agbalowomeri:
Is it that people don't understand the Islamic ideological root that Tinubu was addressing here?

They don’t. Except you remind them with Abraham and Isaac 😊

Abuja Nigeria


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRryF3kG9nA?is=E2pKwvTeOxUaKfv7

ghm:
Dangote has prepared for that anyways. The refinery is much bigger than what can rely only on a single country's consumption. It is serving and will continue to serve the region and beyond.

Then why did he take NNPC and NMPDRA to court?

franchasng:
Me and you are not on the same level or wavelength.

I don't have a Nigerian Governor.


I am only pressing for a better Nigeria for people like you. We want you guys to experience good life and good governance in your lifetime so that you will realize that Nigeria has been under bondage for years.



And for your information leadership flows from top to bottom and not from bottom to top.


If the President is performing, other lower government officials will fall in line.

Only the President have the constitutional power and resources to fight insecurity and combat corruption in all cadres of government.


The buck stops at the President's office.


A better Nigeria can only start from a better President and not Governor or Senator or LGA Chairmen

This is not true. The things that affect local people more like agriculture, sme’s support, pipeborne water, community roads are not tied to the president but Governors and LGA’s.

SonofElElyonRet:
If government eventually allows duel imports, how will this affect dangote refinery's fortunes?

Imports of 20% shouldn’t be an issue. Nigeria’s market is a $10 Billion market on a good day. Dangote can also export what is left to earn dollars right away.

“A minimum wage of ₦500,000 is not too much for Nigerian workers. Police officers, soldiers, teachers, doctors, nurses, and other public servants deserve a living wage and those in critical sectors must earn additional allowances for the risks, sacrifices, and essential services they provide.”

- Omoyele Sowore

awesomeJ:
I tell you sir.

The benefits of a big portfolio is mostly psychological. Comfort from luxury items is real 😁😁

And market is just doing press up oo. July /August/September might even be much better. My only fear would be people taking profit enmass to position for the Dangote IPO.

The West African Giant

West African Giant

SmartPolician:
When you measure their assets in naira, it looks big. But when you do that in USD, it's not really much - thanks to Tinubu and his yeye supporters

The dollar value was also written in the report: $147 Billion

Ding

Okomu

Airtel Africa rises from the dead.

deathwing:
I think Seplat had more than a month of downtime on one of their pipelines o something, so the oil price increase (as well as their strengthening gas business) kind of cushioned and prevented what would have been a loss.

Not just Seplat but even the Renaissance group because the line that was affected was the Forcados (a major pipeline). However, it has been functional since April and we would definitely see a massive rise in Revenue for Seplat and Aradel in Q2 2026.

ChatGPT analysing Dangote refinery prospects in 2027

If Dangote Refinery eventually lists on the stock exchange and achieves:

* ~$3–5 billion annual profit after tax,

it could instantly become:

* one of Africa’s largest listed companies by earnings.

For perspective:

* that would rival or exceed many major African banks,
* telecom firms,
* and industrial conglomerates.

The refinery makes money because:

* petrol,
* diesel,
* jet fuel,
* LPG,
* polypropylene,
* and other products

combined are usually worth more than the crude oil barrel used to produce them.

Then add:

* logistics,
* storage,
* trading gains,
* export arbitrage.

ojeysky:
You bought presco at 50? And I can assume you packed 6 figure unit. This man portfolio go don reach 10 zeros already. I Stan!

The name is megawealth. First of his name 😊.

Peterlove11:
What of FirstBank, Ecobank, and Wema.......and what's the implication

The implication is that investors especially foreign investors would be certain these Banks are more stable and would likely invest in them more. Also, they can raise credit facilities more easily from both local and international sources.

These Banks were upgraded because Nigeria was upgraded to B as well.

Access bank, Stanbic, Gtbank, Zenith and UBA got a re-rating from B- to B.

Airtel Africa’s revenue in 2025

• Nigeria 🇳🇬 - $1.0b

• East Africa (Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda,Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia) - $1.8b

• Francophone Africa (DRC, Chad, Gabon, Madagascar, Niger, Republic of Congo, Seychelles) - $1.3b

Nigeria is a continental region in her own right.

mikeapollo:
Institutional investors e.g. pension fund custodians, cooperatives etc can virtually take up everything especially niow that PENCOM has given them a waiver to allow them invest as much as posdible in the IPO.
It could even be oversubscribed.
Only that the devaluation of the naira will now give advantage to foreign investors over Nigerians

You are right. But on the bright side, this also opens up the stock market to foreign retail investors who would now buy more naira in their numbers because they know they would collect dividends in dollars afterall.

Errdrop:
This was 2013.... Saying GT, Nestle, Nigeria brewery are expensive.
Let compare the expensiveness to today.... Omoh. Over 10 years later

Interesting. They were also anticipating a possible market cap increase from 6.9 trillion to 8.8 trillion naira on the first page at the time (2012). 🥰

Now we are talking 160 trillion naira (over x 20).

It just seems like ages ago.

An interesting article on what retail investors should consider before investing in the IPO

https://africaoilgasreport.com/2026/05/refining-gap/inside-the-dangote-refinery-what-the-public-should-know-before-the-ipo/

mikeapollo:
This thing Alhaji is doing with the refinery IPO may affect Nigerians negatively. He is listing just about 10 percent and is opening the floodgates to everybody?. Nigerians are his number one customers and investors Who is Alhaji trying to impress? How many companies in other countries have done this for Nigerians? If he wants to open it up, then he should offer 30 percent or more to the public so that Nigerians can have more

You think Nigerian retail investors alone can take up the $5 Billion (currently almost 7 trillion naira) in a short time?