₦airaland Forum

WAFCON postponed?

megawealth01:
Jagaban for a reason

This Gross 50 Billion USD beats the foreign debt of 48 Billion USD for the first time since probably 2019.

awesomeJ:
Reserves at 13 year high of $50.4bn as of 16th February

Even NGX in pure dollar terms (without considering the slight dollar inflation) is already over 13 year high and beats the 2013 record of 84 Billion USD (which was the best year for both the Yar Adua and Jonathan era).

emmanuelewumi:
Leave the general market alone and talk about the stocks in your own portfolio if they beat currency devaluation

You are right. I checked for MTN and I got this compared to their historical highs in 2022 (since listing in 2019).

“Before the 2026 surge, MTN's previous dollar "ceiling" was roughly $9.8 Billion in 2022. By crossing the $11 Billion mark today, MTN has officially surpassed its previous records, making it one of the few Nigerian companies to achieve a double-digit billion-dollar valuation alongside Dangote Cement.”

handsomebolanle:
FYi

Use Gemini preferably not ChatGPT or Grok. In 2013, the NGX market cap was around 13.3 trillion naira while the exchange rate was 155 to the dollar.
If we beat 87 Billion USD now we would likely have the highest market cap since the financial crisis in 2007.

Edit: Using Gemini now, I think I even understated our 2026 performance compared to 2013.

emmanuelewumi:
Really?

What was the market capitalization in USD in 2013

87 Billion USD

NGX market cap now approaching 84 Billion USD. Highest since 2013.

SonofElElyonRet:
When did government revert to starting and running businesses? I imagine it's a PPP. Dig deeper to know the private partner

I don’t mind Government running businesses when it comes to mining, agriculture, and construction (to a lesser extent)

“The NGX recorded a growth of 51.20% compared to 37% in 2024.
The matket capital grew to N99trillion.

When Dangote Refinery Limited & NNPCL list on the market we should see a massive growth by the end of 2026”.

Copied.

vaxx:
No long capping you ask for the Link, I provided it , I even ensure it is neutral. So why the fussed.


Go thru the web links to get yourself informed,if you are interested to know . Just don't form a beer parlour opinion. Shekenah.

I went through the link and it just says Ghana played a prominent role without providing details. I just provided you details on what role Ghana played which you can cross check across links.

vaxx:
To be neutral. I will not quote or give links coming from Ghana media house.


Just visit DW Africa websites page or verified from their Facebook handle

Ghana’s Sahel envoy only supported in terms of receiving the aircraft from Burkinafaso and logistics. The mediation itself for the release of the soilders had nothing to do with Ghana. They stepped into the mediation to provide logistics afterwards.

Ghana is involved because they stepped into the mediation afterwards to accept the plane because it would have been easier going to Ghana as the nearest ECOWAS state with an airforce base than going to Mali or going back to Nigeria.

Ghana is ECOWAS envoy to the Sahel but Ghana wouldn’t have been able to resolve this issue. It had to be Nigeria herself. This is why there is no record of any ECOWAS or Ghanaian diplomat involved in the negotiation for the release of the soilders but Nigerian foreign minister.

vaxx:
Ghana 🇬🇭 has secured the release of the eleven (11) 🇳🇬 Nigerian airforce crew who mistakenly landed in Burkina Faso 🇧🇫 two (2) weeks ago and were detained there.

🇬🇭 Ghana helped in mediation by sending Lt Col Rtd Larry Gbevlo-Lartey, Ghana's Special Envoy, to the Alliance of Sahelian States for the fantastic job in securing their release.

Can you give me the link that shows where Ghana did this?

ositadima1:
If you want to recognize the truth, you need to look beyond oversimplified statistics. Do you know that currency depreciation does not affect exports and imports equally, even within the same year? Imports react almost immediately through price shocks and demand destruction, while exports respond much more slowly.

There are two broad ways to record a trade surplus. The first is a strong-country surplus, driven by high productivity, competitive manufacturing, rising exports, and stable imports of capital goods. The second is a weak-country surplus, driven by currency collapse, import compression, falling consumption, and declining capital-goods imports.

These are, of course, extremes, but the point stands: don’t let numbers confuse you.

Okay use numbers and give me the imports of the first 6 months of 2023 and that of 2025 in both dollars and naira. Use 500/$ for H1 2023 and 1550/$ for H1 2025.
I did the calculation and the difference is just $3 Billion but the exports increased tremendously despite lower crude oil prices in H1 2025.

Imports for H1 2023 = 11.286 trillion naira = 22.57 Billion USD

Imports for H1 2025 = 30.706 trillion naira = 19.81 Billion USD.

Agbalowomeri:
In economic terms what does balance of payment mean, whether trade surplus or deficit? Simply means the economy is shifting the narratives. You are comparing export versus import for THE SAME YEAR. Same conditions apply, whether currency or inflation.

Is Dangote Refinery not included in Nigeria's GDP? I think it would be misleading to just interpret everything from government performance perspectives.

I tire oo. I didn’t even mention Government in my initial post.

ositadima1:
No, this is still misleading and superficial. It’s like saying Nigeria just recorded the highest average height, when in reality many short people were excluded from the measurement for some reason. This kind of summary statistic will lead you astray.

You can clearly see that export revenues almost doubled from 2024. You know why: the floating of the naira. In fact, 2025 actually saw a drop in export revenues, which is not a good sign.

On the import side, similar reasoning applies, but with a twist. The Dangote Refinery played a major role here. refined oil related imports were the largest import item, and imports were expected to fall.

The Dangote Refinery operates independently of the government, so this cannot be counted as a direct result of government policy.

There is more to unpack, but I won’t go into that here.

The 2025 data is for just nine months. Also there isn’t much difference between the average FX rate of 2024 (at around 1460/$) and that of 2025 (currently at around 1500/$).
Also, price of crude oil has been relatively low in 2025 so crude oil exports have been lower compared to 2022/2023. Dangote refinery’s crude oil import is large and is also included in the data for imports as well. So some of these things balance each other out to an extent.

Panadee:
These figures are stated in nominal terms, not adjusted for inflation, devaluation or anything else I can observe.
We should always view statistics objectively.
"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics" - Mark Twain/Benjamin Disraeli

This is trade surplus which is simply the difference between imports and exports. Devaluation and Inflation doesn’t really matter much here.
I can convert the figures to dollars for you using official exchange rates of each period.

2022 = 2.81 Billion USD
2023 = 8.50 Billion USD
2024 = 14.94 Billion USD
2025 = 12.75 Billion USD (for 9 months only)

In the early 2000’s we sometimes had trade surpluses of around 40 Billion USD when we produced over 2.2 million bpd of crude oil. Then naira was just 120 to the dollar.

Nigeria recorded its highest trade surplus in six years in 2025 — and it only took 9 months to achieve

2020
Exports: N12.52trn
Imports: N12.70trn
Total trade: N25.22trn
Trade balance: -N178.26bn (deficit)

2021
Exports: N18.91trn
Imports: N20.84trn
Total trade: N39.75trn
Trade balance: -N1.94trn (deficit)

2022
Exports: N26.80trn
Imports: N25.59trn
Total trade: N52.39trn
Trade balance: N1.21trn (surplus)

2023
Exports: N35.96trn
Imports: N30.86trn
Total trade: N66.83trn
Trade balance: N5.10trn (surplus)

2024
Exports: N77.44trn
Imports: N60.59trn
Total trade: N138.03trn
Trade balance: N16.85trn (surplus)

2025*
Exports: N66.16trn
Imports: N46.84trn
Total trade: N113.00trn
Trade balance: N19.34trn (surplus)

*2025 data is for Jan-Sep

<NBS>

Streetinvestor2:
Build the reserve or borrow our lives out.Why can't our own reserve grow in organic ways.is this not indirectly defending the naira by F government. U think the FDI don't know that the reserve is just being packaged by FPI

Question 1: How much foreign loans have we borrowed since May 2023?

Question 2: By how much have the reserves grown since May 2023?

ositadima1:
Most people don’t get it. We said as far back as 2023 that the market was undergoing a repricing. I used to buy Hero for ₦250, but it repriced multiple times , to ₦300, then ₦500 (₦400 in some places), then ₦800 (₦700 in some places), and finally to the current ₦1000.

It’s not just beer. Almost everything in the market has repriced. The same LG washing machine I bought for ₦40,000 is now ₦150,000. How do you expect the stocks of companies whose plants and physical assets have also repriced upwards to remain the same?

Like you said, much of the appreciation we saw may simply be repricing, not “growth” in the real sense. I don’t have the strength right now, but one way to look at it is to compare the price of these stocks from 2023 in dollar terms versus their current dollar value, assuming the dollar maintained constant value. (Yes, even the dollar has lost some value, but it’s still the best benchmark we have.)

But so many stocks (including the ASI) have also appreciated in dollar terms compared to 2023. I believe Statisense have done these comparisons with May 2023 more than once. If you are comparing the stock market to 2013 and 2014 then you may have a point.

Streetinvestor2:
So ur so called stable naira at #1447 and stable fuel at #940 is what is making food price down.Why are the prices of finished goods in provisions, cosmetics, building materials,drugs etc not down..
The harvest improved and this is harvest season. The high cost of food in the past yrs was because of so much insecurity in the North.The devaluation/ subsidy removal pushed it to unbearably level. This forced the south into farming. . The vegetables yam,potatoes,rice etc supporting price now is because thr are harvest from everywhere not like before we all was depending on north supply mostly. The food stuff we left for North to farm whr heavily grown too in the south.
Why is the price of meat and fish of any type not coming down
Your failed government management of the economy has improved nothing

At least we agree devaluation and fuel subsidy removal were also responsible for the abnormal food price hike in 2023 and 2024.
If money supply does not reduce and FX rate/ inflation keep rising, all of what you mentioned would mean nothing because food prices would still be indirectly affected. The price of meat, fish and finished goods may be high but they are not rising fast compared to 2024 and this is due to effective monetary policy and FX rate stability.

Streetinvestor2:
This is harvest season so nothing special has this government done.

I disagree. 2023/2024 harvest season still had food inflation rising for the most part although increase in PMS prices from 650 to over 1000 in October/November 2024 contributed to the rising food inflation then. Nevertheless, even in March/April 2025, there was no real spike in food inflation.
This has more to do with a stable naira and other monetary policies as well as stable energy prices.

ogawisdom:
Cost of cars have not reduced at all and most imported items.

Yes food prices have crashed by over 70% in some cases and still coming down. Food is nothing now everyone can afford the basic ones

Food is the most important in the case of Nigeria. If food becomes more affordable for the poor, then we are on our way out of the crises.

This video is spot on though I would put Egypt at no 4 and replace Zambia with Dr Congo.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8OAGwC2Eak?si=gGjZlsGvC9LuORit

iskalamong:
Nice observation.

How consistent has this been?

I am asking to know if its just a theoretical concept or if there are empirical evidence.

Pardon my curiousity.

This is an area I have not looked into previously.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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In this case, it’s merely theoretical. The previous spike in money supply (M1 &M2) had more to do with years of printing (especially in 2022 and 2023) as well as the depreciation of the naira in 2023 and early 2024. Once we stopped printing too much and increased interest rate to match inflation, the depreciation was bound to slow down (and even stop) and then with that, a slow down in money supply.
So in this case, it’s different because the money supply of 2023 and 2024 were not due to accelerated GDP growth or any form of economic expansion from credit but rather naira unification of 2023 and 2024 coupled with heavy printing by the CBN in 2022 and 2023 especially.

Money supply growth continue to decline in 2025 which means inflation would be on a downward trend for the foreseeable future. You can see how high it was in 2024.

Gerrard59:
Perceived access or closeness to people with illegal money, and maybe it is a southern thing because we are southerners. Or do northerners share similar views about money?

You can see such in Lagos and other cities in the south. But is it rampant across Northern Nigeria as well?

It’s all about exaggeration most times and the need for validation or to promote a false image. Southern Nigeria mostly guilty.

mikeapollo:
If the CGT madness is not reversed, virtually every stock will be affected. Some may be affected more or quicker than others, but all stocks will get a hit eventually and it would be opportunity for bargain hunters to accumulate.

I don’t see how the current bearish market is related to CGT.

Heishere:
How does this address his concern?

What was his concern? I am saying the rates are nothing new. We have always had 7 to 9% rates for Eurobonds even when they were not as oversubscribed. No one was expecting the rates to be lower than 8% in the first place so it hardly matters here.

Potvalor:
Exactly, this explains the oversubcription. USA Federal bonds hovers around 4.0-4.5% yield, so a 9ja Eurobond of 8-9% yield is very attractive to both local and foreign investors. Which isn't necessarily a good thing for Nigeria in the long term with our rising debt servicing cost and static dollar revenue. So I don't get why we are the celebrating the oversubscription news.

I don’t think Naija Eurobond has ever been less than 7% for a long time now. There is usually a 3% country risk they add to what should have been 4-5%.

Namaster:
Thanks for pointing this out.

It's s ALARMING.
But also very FUNNY.


The person complaining about FAKE news related to the New Tax Laws is the number one spreader of fake news related to the New Tax Laws.

It's even worse since he's the Chief Architect of the laws.
He's the kind of person they called a SUPER-SPREADER during the time of Corona.

He has been attending conferences and symposiums and telling people that Small Companies are companies with Turnover of #100M or less and Total Fixed Assets of #250M or less WHILE the NTA and NTAA defines Small Companies as companies with Turnover of #50M or less and Total Fixed Assets of #250M or less.

This is very BAD.
And NOBODY on his team corrected him.

It could also be that somebody (the Lawmakers) tampered with the Final Drafts and Oyedele failed to review the ones published in the official gazette.

By the way, PwC published Oyedele's #100M definition on their official website.
An egregious mistake on their part.

Someone should inform Oyedele.
Maybe they'll review the New Laws and POSTPONE the date it goes into effect 'cause #50M is too SMALL a threshold.

There is still confusion over this matter. AI reply:

“Since the specific figure in the final tax law text is still subject to minor conflicting reports (₦50M vs. ₦100M for 0% tax), you should rely on the threshold of \le \text{₦100 Million} for general classification as a small company that benefits from numerous tax reliefs and exemptions under the new law, but be aware that the stricter 0% CIT threshold might be \le \text{₦50 Million}. Consult a tax professional for specific compliance advice”.

GeeKudi:
There must always be a way to spin narratives and propaganda.

We love propaganda and conspiracy theories for Naija, chai 🤣😊