₦airaland Forum

mikeapollo:
So you want billionaires to buy shares in NNPC so that the profits from upstream crude revenue can be shared to them in a country where we do not have good roads, schools, hospitals, jobs, electricity etc?.
Let us imitate and copy what would help us to grow and develop, not necessarily what other better developed countries are doing because they can afford to do so at this stage of their national development.

Even Saudi Aramco is almost completely owned by the Saudi govt. itself. Only about 2% is outside govt.
That is even in a country that has all the things we could only dream to have... good schools, hospitals, infrastructure, electicity, security, jobs, human development, strong economy, less corruption etc

NNPC would also be almost completely owned by the Government. I don’t see why an IPO with our upstream as done in Saudi Aramco and Petrobas is a problem. These countries were also not as rich when they listed but the listing have not only multiplied value for these companies but their respective countries where the Government still holds the largest share by far.
Norway in 1990 went as far as creating a sovereign wealth fund with their entire upstream and today it’s worth 2 trillion dollars. I am not saying we should do what Norway did but I am saying I see no reason why NNPC can’t do exactly as Saudi Aramco and Petrobas.

mikeapollo:
Don't mix it up.!
Oil producing countries do not put their MAIN upstream operations on stock exchanges because that is source where the bulk of sovereign national revenues for the economy and budget comes from. They can only list their midstream/downstream operations e.g. distribution, refineries. refined products, lubricants etc.
Some private companies e.g. Shell, Total, ENI, even Conoil also do the same. You would not find their upstream operation listed in some countries.
So do not expect NNPC to list their upstream operations where crude oil export revenue comes from, It wont happen! Only the filling stations, refineries and other downstream activity may be listed. They only need to form a new PUBLIC company for the operations they want to list on NGX

So what about the most successful national oil companies out there like Saudi Aramco and Petrobas? Are you saying their upstream wasn’t part of their IPO’s?

mikeapollo:
And NNPC want to do IPO in London? For what business? Filling stations or dead refineries?
You can believe anything from this govt! Good luck.

The govt even said that they stopped subsidy altogether in Jun2023. So why October 2024 again? Have they been paying subsidy for 16 months from Jun2023 to October 2024?
Lies will be needed to cover lies

Lol, NNPC are strong stakeholders in every barrel of oil produced in this country. They also own 49% stake in NLNG and drill their own 350k bpd oil (via their subsidiary NEPL) likewise managing that of the federation (which they have mostly done forward pledges with). They are the biggest firm in Nigeria and only the Dangote group would likely come close in a few years.
Refineries and filling stations are the least profitable parts of their business empire.

Yes, this Government paid subsidy from August 2023 to October 2024. That is my problem with this Government. They are just too political and not transparent with the public when they should be.

mikeapollo:
And you believe the crap that NNPC is going to an IPO in London and Nigeria? IPO for what? The 4 dead refineries or the former Oando filling stations?
Only ignorant people would buy such IPO in a govt company that operates with no transparency and accountability.
Any serious major investor would revive that debt matter and resolve it before they put money down

If you followed the World Bank reports you would see that their report in Q1 2025 stated that NNPC have started paying back the debts immediately after the subsidy was completed stopped in October 2024.

mikeapollo:
A govt and a president that wrote off NNPC's debt of unremitted revenues in the most reckless and irresponsible manner without approval by national assembly?
That is another example of corruption and lack of accountability in this govt.
Where this the president get the powers under the constitution to write-off the debts of an institution like NNPC?

You are right that these things should be done constitutionally and I agree with you. However, I have no problem with writing off NNPC ‘s debt. It is to fast track their eventual IPO in Nigeria and London stock exchanges before 2028. You don’t want subsidy debts weighing them down as they clean their books. The FG was also in debt to NNPC for the long years of subsidies which crippled NNPC until they couldn’t take it anymore and stopped remitting to the CBN in 2022.
In July 2024 (during the subsidy regime), international oil marketers revealed NNPC were indebted to them and the amount was a staggering $6 Billion.
But be that as it may, you are right that the Government should be more transparent and democratic in these processes.

Bizibi:
I can beat my chest and tell you it is still there,it only evolved and this is not what you see in the news or social media.

Mda is the worst of them on that list.if you want to stop leakages in our system remove the senate but that is impossible.

It will take years to get it done at 50%.

At least you know where a part of the problem is as well. The senate is a problem. The huge cost of collection going to FIRS and some agencies during FAAC sharing is also a problem that must be looked into.

Bizibi:
none,the leakages and cottuption is still there in this government.

Of course they are still there and I agree. But this Government tackled and is still tackling the biggest ones:

Leakage from FX rate duality
Leakage from fuel subsidy
Leakage from NNPC fees retention (now to be remitted to FAAC)
MDA leakages
Leakages from outdated (colonial era) tax systems

Africa’s largest refinery, the Dangote Refinery, is set to deploy Point-of-Sale (POS) terminals, fintech platforms, and mobile technology to drive retail participation in what is expected to become the largest public offer in Africa.

Nairametrics

Analysis by @ Rufyb on Pencom

“ According to Pencom rules, before a PFA can invest pension assets in any company's shares, that company must meet minimum thresholds on three fronts:

✑ it must have existed for a certain number of years (typically 5 years for listed equities under PenCom rules)

✑ it must have a track record of profitability, and

✑ it must have a history of paying dividends.

This makes sense as a contributor protection framework, as you don't want pension money going into speculative or unproven businesses.

And these conditions have constrained the allocation of Pencom to some companies (and the equities market in general).

The problem is that Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals FZE is technically a new listing. Despite being backed by Dangote Industries and being one of the largest industrial assets in Africa, it doesn't yet have the requisite years of existence as a listed entity, nor a dividend payment history, which would ordinarily disqualify it under those rules.

So PenCom essentially carved out a special exception, acknowledging the strategic and economic significance of the asset while setting aside the standard eligibility criteria.

It is pragmatic. Na we dey always say make regulations relax so we go fit see prosperity. Therefore, mi o binu si raaraa. Kudos to Pencom.

Howeverrrrrrrrrrr.... 🌚🌚🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠

It took Ekun Oko Oke, Ikoko Aliko 1 to be on the other side before Pencom remembered "strategic importance, strong fundamentals, and wide-ranging economic benefits, and the growth potential" (as though it's not the case for some other companies).

Na all these selective application of rules me no too fancy (they even stated it in the circular that it is one-off). But it's the Dangote Refinery, we allow.🙂🙂🙂🙂“

mikeapollo:
If you are unproductive and too poor as a nation, the most important, critical priority is to ensure prudence in public spending, even if you have plans to increase revenue.
No amount of revenue would make the desired difference where there are huge and ever-increasing leakages and corruption.
You block the leakages FIRST.
Do you continue to pour more water into a bucket with a huge leaking hole, or you fix the leakage FIRST and go and fetch more water?

Is there any Government since the 1970’s (after Murtala Muhammad) that has blocked leakages and corruption like this Government? Show me one and I would concede.

mikeapollo:
Nobody expects or asking them to stop or reduce capital budget. How much percentage are they even spending on capital projects? The main issue is recurrent expenditure, excluding salaries !
They should cut the huge overheads being spent on govt machinery! A govt that went to Climate Change summit in Dubai with about 400 officials?

I agree they should reduce Govt overhead but give me the figure of all of it and let’s see what they are. The deficit is over 20 trillion for 2026. Recurrent expenditures are in trillions.
Reducing the Government overhead would be good especially for the optics and would solve the problem in a little way but would it really solve the problem in a major way? Would that be enough to reduce the budget deficit and help the naira (especially in 2023 and 2024)? I doubt it.

While it is true we have a management and corruption problem, a bigger problem is that we are unproductive and we are too poor.

megawealth01:
Maddest looting nko?

Give me the numbers so I analyze how to reduce budget deficit without them.

Don’t get me wrong, that also is a problem and should be reduced or eliminated but focusing on that alone would not reduce the budget deficit except the numbers are huge. If you can give me the figures of these lootings, then we can analyze them.

mikeapollo:
I don't get you!
The main reason why the naira was weakening is budget deficit! And the most reasonable thing to do is to cut expenditure drastically. But instead, they decided to focus on increasing revenue, which is looted again. After devaluing the naira and ''liberalizing the FX market'' (as you said) to rake in more revenue, tell me if they are still borrowing heavily or not? The debt would still rise, and there is NOTHING to show for it.

If you care to know, Sowore, myself and Tinubu himself; we all ''belonged'' to the same ''school of governance''! Have you forgotten that your Tinubu criticized everything govts did in the past, including some policies similar to what you are praising him for now? That is the hypocrisy I cannot stand!
You seem to have forgotten that your current president opened his mouth and called a sitting president a ''drunken fisherman'' just because he disagreed with some economic policies of the govt.? Nigerians!

The heightened poverty, insecurity, inflation, hardship and hunger in the land are the mishaps!

I am neither APC nor PDP nor ADC.
But, Teacher (Tinubu) don't teach me nonsense!

I agree with the bolded but then again the only way they would have done that to make meaningful impacts would be:

1) Sack workers ( a huge chunk of the budget are salaries)

2) Reduce capital projects (this is what Milei did alongside 1 above)

3) Default and turn to IMF programmes of austerity and join the likes of Ghana, Ethiopia and Zambia as one of those who defaulted on their debts recently in Africa.

I am quite sure they would have faced severe criticism as well if they had implemented any of these 3 or all of them like Milei.

No easy way.

Bbbwings:
I reached a different conclusion. Maybe we need to learn from the Chinese.Having all the Americans business men visiting your country means you are doing something right.

But of course they are the second largest economy on earth and the top exporters in the world. Largest economy on earth by PPP.

KarlTom:
That valuation is generally understood to cover: the current 650,000 bpd refinery (not sure the expansion is included), petrochemicals plants, storage/logistics infrastructure and possibly associated midstream assets.

You are right. I would have preferred he listed the fertiliser separately though.

Oasisblue:
Dangote Refinery will push tie ASI to unprecedented levels. A $50 billion company lsiting 10% of its value on the NGX.

$50 Billion?? Isn’t that an overvaluation? Anyway, we wait and see.

nairavsdollars:
If you have MTN shares, quickly sell. Oshiomhole just said on Arise tv that nationalization will happen

This is the problem with having ignorant people in such high places. Hopefully foreign investors do not read too much into it because I know domestic investors hardly take such stupid rants seriously.

PinkNature:
congrats as how 😂 he lost a lot of money tbh.

1m in 2003 and 3m of today isn’t the same value.

Correct me if I’m wrong but the initial post wasn’t saying his 1 million naira of GTB stocks in 2003 is now worth 3 million naira. That would mean GTB just grew only x3 since 2003.
I would have suspected he was writing about dividends from GTB, but I’m not sure either.

Streetinvestor2:
Pls more information on the frontier market in September. Is it when it will kick start. I thought it was already in place and operational immediately the ban was lifted

For now domestic retail investors are still positioning ahead of September. It would kickstart in September from what I know.

ASI: 250k 😃

leo1234:
Megawealth01 is a foreign investor.

Megawealth01 and his FDI 😅

Nigerian now have the biggest indigenous oil and gas companies in Africa (by far) when it comes to production.

Note: Aradel are the largest shareholders of the Renaissance group.

For newbies interested in the NGX. Take note. Most illiquid stocks on the NGX.

Market already above 2% today. The longer trading hours would turn out to be a huge boost to the NGX

Streetinvestor2:
No wonder the green. They can pay #5 or more in dividend this yr as they equally have clean books

Investors may believe they are also more transparent now than in 2024 because of the strict rules of the CBN.

Agbalowomeri:
Purchasing power is 10x less than it was about 15 years ago. As a salary earner those days, 350k is the equivalent of over 3.5m today. I don't think any civil servants earn 3.5m today. If salaries then didn't destroy the economy with that purchasing power why should it now?

Total Government Revenue of $30 Billion in 2025 is at 2015 levels (still very low).

Is Oshiomele’s reckless statement about nationalising MTN affecting the stock price? Because foreign investors are anlso involved in MTN Nigeria and may take the joke of Oshiomole too seriously than local investors.

Dupeodus:
A major problem that Nigeria has with power in the last decade or so is the insistence on paying unrealistic tariffs. I kept wandering how Nigerians think they can pay less than half of what is obtainable outside Nigeria on a product whose tools, machineries and expertise are imported and expect any success. A common argument is 'how much are Nigerians earning' as if that has anything to do with the cost of production. The funny thing is that the same Nigerians that insist on unreasonable tariffs now spend exorbitant amount on generators and diesel.

I agree with your point but let us fix the inefficiencies first before thinking of paying market prices. If the people pay market prices like in Band A, and they don’t experience improvement in power supply within a few months, it would only lead to frustration.

Agbalowomeri:
How did Obasanjo accomplish it? Because I remember he overhauled the wage structure that completely changed workers' purchasing power

He did that when he started earning more. He increased wages from 3000 to 5500, when oil prices more than doubled. Increasing from $10 under Abacha to $28 in the year 2000 and to $65 before he left. That means oil increased 6 folds within his tenure and oil production remained high at 2.2 - 2.4 million bpd with new oil investments and FID’s flowing. Then Nigeria was the main oil producer and supplier in Africa. Then, the U.S relied on countries like Nigeria for oil (because it was before Obama).
There was increase in the national cake (oil revenues), increase in investments (because we just exited military rule) and with all of these an over 6% growth in gdp.

Agbalowomeri:
Purchasing power is 10x less than it was about 15 years ago. As a salary earner those days, 350k is the equivalent of over 3.5m today. I don't think any civil servants earn 3.5m today. If salaries then didn't destroy the economy with that purchasing power why should it now?

I’m not against increasing salaries, just not via the popular minimum wage template.

As for purchasing power and salary increases, you have to compare with earnings. 15 years ago the Government was about implementing the 18k minimum wage of March 2011 which was increased from 7500 naira. Even then they struggled to fully comply with this 18k across all states for years.

Now using minimum wage as a metric, this 18k was $112 then which is twice what it is today ($55). However, the total Government revenue in 2011 was around $75 Billion which is 2.5 times what it is today at $30 Billion.

So in dollar terms, the Government is also over 2 times poorer in revenue than she was 15 years ago.

If Govt does not first address the low productivity problem in order to increase revenue to at least 2011 levels, increasing the minimum wage would be a death sentence and would spike the inflation such that the 250k minimum wage would be worth nothing as we have seen from the 2019 minimum wage to the 2024 minimum wage increases.

Agbalowomeri:
What is very concerning though is the terrible wage structure which the private sector is also exploiting. For the current realities on ground, minimum wage should be N250k for a decent living

That would destroy the economy and shoot up the naira. Minimum wage should be 150k only for Lagos and oil producing states and not even for the FG.

I don’t actually believe in minimum wage though. I believe more in average wages.

I believe a minimum wage should be negotiable between an apprentice and the employer who wants to train him or her.

Average wages on the other hand are the real deal. Govt and private sectors can just increase salaries across board.

crownprince2017:
Even my blood sister is a victim of this reality, I told her, pull your money out of all these businesses right now or substantial part of it and deployed into capital markets for revaluation in real time, you can't keep up with 3x devaluation with physical business but she no gree, she gave me millions of reason why my idea does not make sense and I just melo.. just late last year she called me and allude to my fears and started asking about stocks.

Many lack knowledge while some does not want to test another idea because they are used to their comfort zones.

Some financially exposed persons in 2022 saw this coming one way or the other. An economist said on a Twitter space I attended in 2022, that his evaluation of what the naira should be at the time was 1200. Buhari/Emiefele restarted naira pegging plus heavy printing in 2020/2021. Osibanjo saw the danger of pegging too long and he advised Emiefele and Buhari in 2021 that it was time to allow the official rate of 400 merge with the parallel rate of 600 but Emiefele was adamant that he was waiting on the Dangote refinery which they expected would be completed in 2022.

When you peg a currency for long (and your net reserves are low), the currency explodes when you finally release it unless you are quick to raise interest rates significantly alongside its release or you sell some assets. Egypt did both immediately after floating in 2024. Even then they still struggled to tame the Egyptian pounds.