₦airaland Forum

mikeapollo:
Please stop repeating same excuses for obvious failure!
Tinubu was voted to rule for 4 years. So whatever benefits of his reforms must reflect within the 4 years! That is all!
His so called FX reforms have led to collapse and destruction of 700 manufacturing companies.
Massive corruption, gross incompetence, and the people are suffering.

FX reforms have also led to:

More daily inflows: from $20 million to $100 million as at 2023 to around $500 million as at 2026

Your Bank cards now working abroad with quarterly limits of up to $40,000. This was not seen since like 2012.

Return to JP Morgan index since 2015. JP Morgan now want to set up a merchant bank in the country

Fitch ratings and moody’s ratings are the best in like a decade

FDI have improved since 2023 modestly (still improving)

NGX market cap spurred due to certainty by investors. Market cap is now at over $120 Billion (highest ever in dollar terms and second highest ever in real dollar terms).

Airlines and other investors who couldn’t get their dollars are now stable in the country

FX backlogs cleared

Megawealth001:
Interesting POV. You have talked about fiscal engineering.... Which would amount to nothing if the real sector is NOT deliberately developed.... What is being done in the real sector?
Any support for local manufacturers? Any deliberate technology transfer from the Chinese to the locals as government policy.
What modalities are being employed to develop our real sector.

Why is government competing with the real sector for bank finances... GTCO for example made more money in govt treasury bills and bonds than lending to the real sector or individuals....

Are the loan terms encouraging for manufacturing....?

Even the Bank of Industry will ask for your soul before backing you for meagre equipment... and give you high blood pressure to pay back....

Where's the growth and development going to happen? Nigerian people are very enterprising but where's the support?

Where is the enabling environment?

Obi is a joker, Atiku is catching cruise, Tinubu no send anybody....

The country is not ready....Una go learn new things...

Why is government competing with the real sector for bank finances... GTCO for example made more money in govt treasury bills and bonds than lending to the real sector or individuals...

Because Government is no longer printing money to service debts, pay salaries and keep up with the budget. Hence they borrow to keep up with high cost after naira depreciation in 2023/2024.

Are the loan terms encouraging for manufacturing....?

When inflation comes down, the central Bank would also reduce interest rates and the loan terms would once again be encouraging for manufacturing. We have to chose our poison.

Even the Bank of Industry will ask for your soul before backing you for meagre equipment... and give you high blood pressure to pay back....

Bank of industry just brought our new rules to make accessibility easier and ease rates.

mikeapollo:
You see, this is the problem.
A govt is voted to improve the lives of the people. A govt is not voted into office to carry out the so called "reforms".
Any govt that says it has carried out "reforms" wbut cannot indicate how it has improved the lives of the people is a total failure. They hide behind "reforms" to cover their failures.
Any useless, unproductve, policy can be described as "reforms".
The so called "FX reforms" has led to the collapse of 700 companies, according to MAN. (Manufacturing Association of Nigeria). The "reform" is unable to increase industrial capacity, productivity and create employment which should be the main deliverable objectives.
But they would just tell you they are doing "reforms". while things are getting worse.

Reforms are aimed at improving the lives of the people whether in the short, medium or long term. What else would a reform be aimed at?

A recapitalisation of banks means banks are way more resilient than in 2023 and have the foundation to lend to the people when need be.

FX reforms means GTB or other banks have fx officially for the common trader or importer of raw materials and they don’t have to wait in queues or get FX only by knowing someone in Abuja which kills ease of doing business and in turn reduces economic activity making the people poorer in the long run.

Increased fx reserves means what happened in 2023/2024 would not easily happen anymore as long as net reserves are strong which provides economic stability in the short to mid term or possibly long term for the people.

Tax reforms from colonial outdated system, means the people pays less in taxes since January 1, 2026 and taxes are being streamlined to help the people.

Except by “the people” you mean something else or have another definition

megawealth01:
Besides the NGX REFORMS and one other area, Jagaban has performed woefully so far in this FIRST TERM... If I'm to rate him based on his performance so far eh unless he will perform within the few months remaining to wind up this administration... Na why I told him to avoid me

But he has performed fx reforms and recapitalised our Banks. He has reformed our oil and gas sector attracting new investments. He has updated our tax laws and boosted our FX reserves.

mikeapollo:
Can you see how skewed and biased your anslysis is? Oil price fell from $147 to $37 over a year and you blame Sanusi for depleting our reserves from $62b to $40b?
Show me one CBN governor in the history of Nigeria to date that was able to grow ,(or maintain) reserves when oil price felll by over 75% over a year!
The man you are solely blaming for depleting the reserves was able to keep an exchang rate of N200 to $.for about 4-5 years which helped factories and businesses to expand. What is rhe exchange rate now under your darling govt and CBN governor even when crude oil has been selling at over $80 under this govt?
What would the reserves be if oil price shoukd fall to ,$40 for a year or more?

MAN says over 700 factories have closed down because of FX rate and other policies of this current govt. I hope you are happy and roud of that as an achievement! Congratulations!

Even with all you heard Sanusi predict in that video which eventually came to pass in the time of Buhari, you still can’t decode why we are where we are today? Watch that video again.

@mikeapollo remember our short debate on how our reserves were depleted by Sanusi in 2008 to 2009 from $62 Billion to just around $40 Billion (all in only over one year)?
Well, he admitted it himself in this video. This should be around 2013 or 2014.

Note also that: Everything he predicted here eventually came to pass.

(You can ignore the Twitter post and just watch the video)

Everything Sanusi said here came to pass. Tinubu has helped him do this. I expect PO to design his campaign around how to use the savings to invest in transportation and power. PO needs more intellectuals on his team for campaign strategy tbh

Full video: https://t.co/ZO6v890Vod https://t.co/BLjHID2P4v pic.twitter.com/PGd5FIafPp

— Ken Nwankwo (@keneshuku) October 7, 2026

emperor00:
You quoted a media campaign that has been dishing out lies against him, he has also come out on arise tv with real proofs to back what he said.
So how come you believe a lie without proof but doubt the truth when there I verified evidence. He even came with all notes and documents pertaining his time in government and he gave authority for anyone to verify it.

The quoted anambra media is a soludo sponsored group which has deliberately been spreading lies to just to taint his person and he has brought irrefutable proof but I guess people will chose whatever suits their narrative.

They have replied Obi’s claims.

Agbalowomeri:
So Nigeria is not in the top 10 by market valuation?

Nigeria no 2

AkoniMoipei:
70 % of the refinery will be financed by debt, not by dollars from the Lagos plant. There must be something deeper causing dollar shortages in Nigeria. Something more structural. For us it was almost bemusing he was willing to invest that kind of money/refinery in a nation that barely has any oil. I did some digging and realized he faced severe frustration from the Nigerian leadership when trying to build the Lagos refinery and later when he tried to get crude oil for the refinery. He apparently still imports raw crude yet Nigeria has it in plenty! He was also seriously frustrated when he tried to build a steel factory. You cant really blame him for taking his hard earned money elsewhere, especially where he is not going to be frustrated. Dangote was planning to build the refinery in Tanga, Tanzania but received the typical cold reception we have always warned you about. Kenyans showed 100% goodwill, complete with land in a Special Economic Zone, a new deep water seaport, ready labor, and strategic access to the South Sudan-Ethiopia-Transport corridor for export and import of crude and refined products/byproducts.

Construction begins six days from now. The site has been selected, soil tests done, and design and engineering works complete. By its completion or soon thereafter we intend to have linked the oil fields in South Sudan and Turkana through pipelines to Lamu. With the addition of Africa's second largest refinery, Lamu will be a cargo transshipment and energy hub. The Lamu Oil Refinery will include a Petrochemical Complex (plastics, resins, chemical fertilizers, detergents, synthetic rubber, dyes, pharmaceuticals, and synthetic fibers), capturing the entire Eastern African seaboard and inland countries.

I think you are mixing up a few things here:

First, Nigeria does not have so much oil like you think. Nigeria produces 1.5 million bpd of oil. Dangote requires almost half of that and not all of that belongs to the Nigerian Government. The Nigerian Government historically only controlled about 50% of that. As at the time you said Dangote was allegedly being frustrated (2023/2024), Nigeria produced an average of 1.3 million bpd, which means Government fully controlled 650k bpd. Dangote at full capacity was also 650k bpd at the time making it unreasonable for Dangote to rely on Nigeria for most of his crude.

Also, Dangote did not abandon Nigeria, he is only expanding his market because he is seeing the entire Africa as a greenfield for his conglomerate. If he is abandoning Nigeria, he wouldn’t be expanding his plant to 1.4 million bpd and building a large sea port in Ogun state and a large detergent factory in Lekki.

awesomeJ:
Yes, another positive catalyst for our market. Healthy for the economy too.

I think it’s because the CBN is confident of our FX reserves and hence would not depend so much on FPI. Because this CBN is always reluctant to cut rates when the FED hikes rates.

@awesomeJ rate cut eventually to 23%

As seen on the internet

Based on this punch report, but for Dangote refinery, we may have had a fuel price benchmark for as high as even 1420

“ Oil marketers are lifting more petroleum products from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery as the estimated cost of importing petrol and diesel into Nigeria rises above the refinery’s selling prices, while fresh cargoes continue to move through the country’s coastal supply chain.

According to the latest Energy Bulletin of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, Dangote’s gantry price for Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) stood at N1,350 per litre as of September 17, 2026, [/b]compared with an estimated import parity price of between N1,364.02 and N1,365.02 per litre into tank at the NPSC/ASPM jetty in Apapa on the spot market.

The seven-day average import parity price was higher at N1,371.92 per litre, indicating that importing petrol was about N14 and N22 per litre more expensive than lifting the product from Dangote on the respective benchmarks.

[b]Petrol landed cost was N1,420 as of September 14 before retreating to N1,365 a few days later.

The price gap was also reflected in automotive gas oil, commonly known as diesel. Dangote’s gantry price was N1,850 per litre, while the estimated landed cost was N1,933.56 per litre on the spot market and N1,934.91 per litre on a seven-day average.

The coastal price of PMS from Dangote was listed at N1,330 per litre, while its AGO coastal price stood at $1,580.75 per metric tonne.

The development comes as fresh petroleum product cargoes continue to move through Nigeria’s coastal supply chain, with vessels carrying petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and butane recorded across Lagos, Warri and Port Harcourt.”

Dangote refinery vs Other refineries in the world.

Small refinery but fat margin compared to others.

essentialone1:
Why was Nigeria written in Red letters?

Should it be written in Green? You won spoil the graphic design? 😊

As of 30 June 2026, Dangote Refinery has a total of N5.8 trillion cash at the Bank. Bigger than the budget of Lagos.

GeeKudi:
"As seen on the internet yesterday"

They would ignore this and this wouldn’t have been a problem but for the fact that the man lies. Debt is part of Government operations all over the world but Peter Obi have been seen on countless occasions saying he left the state with no debt

WhizdomXX:
Federal still collects a huge portion (over50%) of the nations revenue. Derivation is still 13%. Till then

No, federal only collects 52% of statutory allocations (e.g oil) and statutory allocations are just 40% of the total FAAC.
Federal also have too many responsibilities. Army, police, more civil servants, more infrastructure works, etc.

megawealth01:
How much is COOKING GAS AND FUEL under Jagaban as at 18th of September 2026?

I don't want to believe what I'm reading online about the prices sha

Has the minimum wage increased to meet up with the reality of the prices I'm told?

I just wish Sowore is in a great party... I was in one of his meetings in the US... Great MANIFESTO 😘

Do you also support his idea of 500k minimum wage? If so, why?

BREAKING: J.P. Morgan includes Nigeria in new emerging-market bond index with 7.4% weight

J.P. Morgan has included Nigeria in its newly introduced Government Bond Index–Emerging Markets Edge (GBI-EM Edge), assigning the country a 7.4% weighting in the benchmark designed to track local-currency government debt across frontier emerging markets.

This is according to J.P. Morgan’s Global Index Research report dated September 14, 2026 seen by Nairametrics.

The inclusion puts Nigerian naira-denominated government bonds back into a J.P. Morgan emerging-market benchmark more than a decade after the country was removed from the bank’s flagship government bond index in 2015.

mikeapollo:
Nigeria' forex reserves was $35billion on May 29, 2023! Where did you get that $3billion from?
Let's stop twisting figures and narratives to suit how you want to praise and eulogize your preferred party in govt.

We will know how "holy, holy" Cardoso and his master are when they are no longer in govt. Just wait.

For me, it is an insult to compare Sanusi's performance and management of the functions and role of CBN in the economy to that of any of his successors so far, including Cardoso.

He is far better than them all.

Why not do your own research? Emiefele had swaps from 2018 worth close to $20 Billion. He pledged to JP Morgan $7.5 Billion as well around 2021. As at 2022, the net reserves were at about $8 Billion ( by CBN records) and this depleted to $3.99 Billion in 2023. JP Morgan in advising investors was the first to hint (in August 2023) that our net reserves were around $3.7 Billion which the then interim CBN management tried to deny and which led to a loss of confidence and mass exits of FPI’s in late 2023 to early 2024.

Do your research. All of these are in the open. I tracked some of them myself from 2023.

As for Sanysi’s management of the CBN, it is a fact that reserves were depleted from $62 Billion in September 2008 to $40 Billion as at February 2010 (the coming of Jonathan). This doesn’t say Sanusi is a bad CBN Governor. Only that 2008/2009 saw mass exits of FPI’s due to the global financial crises and oil prices declined for a while and so Sanusi utilised our reserves to stop the naira from sliding.

ositadima1:
I presented what I think is an objective calculation. It is not a post for or against buying the shares.

What I can tell you is that refinery returns don’t grow over time like those of most other businesses. Once you reach full capacity, revenue gets stuck, much like utility companies. However, the payout is consistent and relatively predictable.

The way I think revenue could grow is if the naira continues to devalue.

I don’t see Naira getting devalued significantly in the next three years. The CBN have been able to grow net reserves from $3 Billion to over $34 Billion by reducing swaps that were prominent in the Emiefele era. With stronger net reserves, the CBN would not let the naira slide significantly like we saw in 2023/2024.
This is thesame way Sanusi held the naira firm during the global crisis of 2008/2009 by burning through the reserves of $62 Billion thereby depleting it to $40 Billion in just over one year.

awesomeJ:
If you have a N100 trn domestic debt volume.

You could price it at 10% and create new N10trn in interest payments or you could price it at 20% and instead create N20trn in new money.

Same dilution happens with OMO mop ups as well as private sector credit. A higher interest rate translates directly into more naira getting printed.

I hope I communicated this well.

Yes but the question is where is the flow of the 10 trillion as opposed to the 20 trillion? The 20 trillion would likely stay in OMO bills and NTB to keep earning that 20% as the people who do these investments now are incentivised to hold it there due to high yields. The 10 trillion would likely chase USD because the real rates of having USD would give more returns.

In H1 2026, Nigeria’s two largest firms (NNPC and DR) made a combined revenue of over $28 Billion far above net FAAC for that same period.

awesomeJ:
It's time for Cardoso and his team to seriously start considering a steep cut in the MPR.

There really isn't any rational keeping it at 1000bps above inflation at this point.


I imagine cost of OMO issuances on their balance sheet alone to already exceed N2trn per annum, not to mention the huge cost of domestic government debt due to this their persistent elevated rates.


The biggest downside I've always mentioned is the dilution of the money supply which is now approaching N140trn if not already above that.


I hope they begin to see reason at this next meeting and start with at least a cut, no matter how little.

It would be healthy for the economy and for our market as well.

If not, naira might just be sitting on another delayed explosion, cos money supply would grow faster than the reserves ever could especially if things ease up in Iran.

I understand your point but like I said the last time we had this debate, I still don’t understand how slashing interest rate reduces money supply, if anything there would be credit expansion and a higher demand from the private sector competing with Government borrowing from the local market.
I would agree with you that we can begin to cut it down, I just want to understand this part of your premise.

mikeapollo:
NNPC will not list the major upstream business because that is where profit on sale of crude is used to finance the national budget.
Only the downstream business (retail filling stations) can be listed and that is nowhere near $70b or Dangote.

No National Oil company (NOC) would list its major upstream business on a stock exchange and distribute its earnings to shareholders (who may be billionaires already) instead of using the funds to finance the budget and develop the nation. It wont happen!

But this is not true. Saudi Aramco and Petrobas amongst others listed their upstream

chimex38:
If NNPCL eventually list on Ngx;
Heavy Weight Market Cap champions:
NNPCL
DR
OandO
Seplat
Aradel

Ngx becomes Oil commodity exchange.

NNPCL is Nigeria’s largest firm and Africa’s second largest firm. They can easily float $70 Billion on the NGX to surpass Dangote (if they list all their ventures).

NNPCL stepping up now even more

NNPC’s investment of $1 Billion investment in Dangote refinery would now likely be worth about $2.6 Billion.

Ownership Structure

awesomeJ:
Valid concern, but It'll list at just about 30% give or take, not 40.

Current market is N158trn
DPRP is 65trn
Market cap on listing is: N223trn

65 is 29% of 223.

Except market dips more significantly.

Even if market is at 150trn on listing day, DPRP would still be at 30% not 40.

Airtel currently represents 15% btw.

This is not even so much of a problem. Samsung controls the SK market even more so.
In Africa, MTN Ghana has same control over the Ghanaian market same with Safaricom (Mpesa) in the Kenyan market.

Streetinvestor2:
This is somehow different from your initial post You mentioned his equity in Dangote Cement. And that is what I reacted to in your post.That didn't significantly change
He took loan from DL which is equally indirect holding of alhaji. So it is still his other hand
DL makes alot from dividend in all alhaji business and other profits. So it has enough cash reserve.
So alhaji equity in the Cement didn't really drop
Or am I missing ur point

Okay. I may have wrongly connected that to his equity though but I read at the time (when the refinery was being built) that Dangote committed about $10 Billion equity to the building of the refinery. Not sure how that worked.