₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
Whr are u getting this information DL still owes 86% of Dangote Cement. It was about 5% it did let go for for the refinery purpose. I think it controlled like 91% previously. Not very sure again

From Google and Bloomberg

chimex38:
If he manages to scale up capacity to around 1.4m as proposed with 90-95% full utilization.

He might be able to guarantee yearly dividend despite thin margins and debt obligations. No matter how small.

Scale is the koko for thin margin businesses.

Most of the debts are owed to DIL (Dangote Industry Limited) because Dangote used his cement equity for the most part to build the refinery. Remember cement alone was the core part of his $25 Billion networth in 2014 which dropped significantly afterwards.

londonerr:
You are wrong. The claim by the current leadership is false. I can't plant yam in my farm then be costing it at international prices. That's no accounting... that's more of abracadabra

Except that crude oil production is not similar to planting yam

Raider76:
That maybe the situation now. But Alhaji is a business man, and may be persuaded to give up more of his own shares or create new shares if the conditions are right. For example, the Abu Dahbi State Oil Company wants 20% stake. In exchange they offer to provided all the crude the refinery needs even at 1.4mbpd. If the refinery's situation at the time is such that they can't refuse the offer, Nigeria could get shut out.

That’s a good deal if you ask me. Nigerian crude is expensive.

Hmm NGX could end the year at or above $200 Billion.

yMcy56:
Oh, ok...
I think say you too wan become Refinery shareholder 😊
I read somewhere here that they even made loss last year, how are we sure the profit posted this year wasn't padded?

Besides, the Hype is too much for the Refinery..
When hype is much like this, better to step aside...
One can always buy on the secondary floor after listing and more results are released.

One close relative don call me today say it's necessary to participate in the Refinery, say Dem must buy...... I said it's ok, I no fit shalaye...😊

Padded how? Last year he was still producing around 400k bpd with mostly a Nigerian centric market. This year he hit full capacity in H1 and also became the largest exporter of Jet fuel. Exports of petrol to other African markets also increased several fold.

As for Davido and other private shareholders who bought in June, they can’t sell until June 2027.

Revenue of $13.91 Billion in 6 months is nuts. Another level entirely. We dey even celebrate MTN 5 trillion naira revenue ($3.5 Billion) for a whole year 😃.

There are levels to this thing 😆

Dangote refinery made an after-tax profit of $1.82 billion in the first half of 2026, following a $476 million loss in the whole of the previous year

H1 2026



Revenue

$13.91bn



Gross profit

$2.50bn



EBITDA

$2.60bn



Profit after tax

$1.82bn



EBITDA margin

18.7%



Refinery utilisation

83.6% average

Watch live: Dangote IPO signing ceremony

https://www.youtube.com/live/evWIc3gKHLA?is=0KiG1e21KiIfJULw

Watch Dangote IPO live on YouTube tomorrow

https://www.youtube.com/live/qcHInBQLn8s?is=TTtQ-jlqrdwBKOZ6

mank1234:
I no dey buy again
120b to 4.3b.
After listing, those private loaders would offload at a cheaper price.

They can’t offload until June 2027.

Stockhunter:
If the IPO is oversubscribed, they might release more units instead of returning money so everyone gets alloted. 120 billion plus OS no be joke. Well except for buyers of so many billion units that want to take over the refinery. So i think for retail, their funds may not be returned. until we see the prospectus though.

I tried calculating 120 billion times 525 my phone calculator give me error😂😄

Lol. 63 trillion naira though (around $48 Billion)

Nigeria’s Financial Market Offerings this Week from September 2, 2026

Nigeria’s capital market enters September on a firmer footing, with the country reclaiming its position as Africa’s best-performing stock market, posting a 69.5% year-to-date dollar return as of August 31, 2026. The renewed market strength, supported by naira stability, strong banking stocks and improving investor sentiment, comes alongside Nigeria’s confirmed return to the @FTSERussell Frontier Market Index on September 21, providing a potentially important catalyst for further foreign investor interest.

Market activity could receive a further boost from the anticipated #Dangote Refinery IPO, with market intelligence indicating that a signing ceremony is scheduled for Monday, potentially paving the way for the offer to open thereafter. The transaction, if launched as expected, would be a significant addition to Nigeria’s equity-market pipeline and could attract substantial investor attention, given the refinery’s strategic importance to the domestic economy and capital market.

Against this backdrop, the primary market remains active, with N700.00bn in Treasury Bills scheduled for auction, alongside commercial paper, infrastructure and real estate investment opportunities. @VFDGroup is offering up to N20.00bn in commercial paper, while Moneda Investment has N5.00bn offer open. The @coronation_ng Infrastructure Fund and Housing Solution Fund also remain in the market, providing investors with opportunities across longer-duration assets.

Analysts remain optimistic about September's capital markets, highlighting the positive impact of strong equity market performance, FTSE Russell re-entry, continued demand for fixed income, and the exciting possibility of the Dangote Refinery IPO. These factors together suggest an energetic and promising month ahead.

The key question for investors will be whether improving sentiment and stronger market liquidity can translate into sustained participation across both the equity and investment-product pipeline.

~ Proshare

The Nigerian FX market

In my last update on the Nigerian FX on this platform, I gave an optimistic view that despite the US/Israel-Iran war, fundamentals support Naira appreciation. At that time, the Naira was around N1365/$, but today it’s at N1336/$.

Any changes to my view, especially as we approach elections? NO

I believe the naira could touch N1310 or even below before year-end.

Why am I optimistic?

We know Q3 is usually associated with increased FX demand from vacation spending and international school fees. Despite this demand, the naira has been strengthening. I know you will ask me to check the parallel market (see my write-up here: x.com/OlaoluBoboye/s…). After the parallel market story, check monthly FX inflows: they've averaged $3.9 billion since the start of the year, or $4.2 billion over the last 3 months. You can pick any period; the result is the same.

What I like about the FX inflow story

- In the last 3 months, inflow from the CBN is about 11.2% of total inflows on average, showing that the CBN is now acting like a regular participant in the market rather than a dominant FX supplier. This counters the argument that the CBN may be force-fitting the naira. In fact, CBN FX intervention is so small, less than $500 million/per month and even in some months they did not show up at all. So, the naira is supported by fundamental factors.

- Local inflows are now accounting for over 60% of total inflows, reducing the dominant flows from foreigners, especially FPIs. More gist on FPIs. Of the $18.4 billion OMO outstanding, FPIs account for 70.0%-80.0%, or about $12.9 billion-$14.7 billion. (I feel like talking more, but the write-up don dey long. I will do another post on changes in OMO restriction, reduced time to maturity in recent OMO issuances, Private OMO maturities, etc. )

Other fundamental factors supporting the Naira

- CBN's decision to temporarily increase banks' weekly FX sales to Bureau De Change (BDC) operators from $150,000 to $1.0 million, split 70.0% via transfers and 30.0% in cash. The measure should improve dollar availability in the retail segment, where demand is less efficiently intermediated through the formal banking system.

- FX reserves at $53.0 billion; my year-end projection remains $55.0 billion. Net FX reserves are over $40 billion, per the CBN's last communication.

- Following the president’s executive order mandating that some previously held NNPC funds be paid into the federation account, NNPCL dollar remittance has increased, supporting higher inflows into the FX reserves. NNPCL’s monthly average flows are now at over $500.0 million vs last year’s average of $321.0 million. I heard that NNPCL now sometimes participates in the FX market, selling FX directly rather than solely remitting to the FGN via the CBN.

- International Oil Companies (IOCs) are also increasing FX supply into the market, doing around $150 million per month in supply.

Overall, the market is liquid, supported by adequate dollar inflows and less encumbered FX reserves.

~ Economist Boboye

udeh3:
But this man is still alive na... Let him just speak for once about himself and end these endless and unnecessary debate year in, year out

He did so already in an interview in 2016. What difference would it make if he does now? Would you believe him?

Mecka:
did you remember wafcon 2004 when the falcons defeated the lioness 5 0 in the final . Perpetual Nkwocha, vera okolo starred in that competition. Mercy akide had stopped firing and a new kid was on the block

Mercy Akide had not lost form then and was still the best striker for the falcons at the time. She scored some of our few goals in the Olympics but still was dropped.

So we played that tournament without our most renowned player at the time but that was the birth of Perpetua Nkwocha (first of her name), who would then go on to reign for the next decade.

daveP:
Their sync that year again. I miss Oparanozie I won't lie

The three O’s with Okobi behind reigned supreme from 2014 - 2016

mostob:
Yea..they did. My eyes are on the Algerian ladies this time. I love their swag lol. Unfortunately, they couldn't win yesterday. They're another excellent team I'm looking out for in the coming world cup.

Their defence was easily out muscled by the Chawinga sisters and even the Ivorian attackers. They are defensively organised but too soft.

mostob:
We can never say o and I don't care.
Make dem sha no win cup

They did well in their first World Cup though. I am not sure what Malawi and Algeria’s performance would be in their first World Cup and I am not really enthusiastic about them.

TheSuperNerd:
Nooooo. That is not Michaely oo.

The Striker turned GK is the Senegalese GK, Adji Ndiaye. Another really good GK from the African continent.

And Michaely is not even the first Cam GK to wow me. Annette Ngo Ndom from the 2014 tournament was a beast. Won Best GK at that Wafcon too.

In 2016 too until she met Oparanozie

Malawi, Cameroon just showed: You beat Nigeria, it means you were already a title contender

Nigeria added 900 million-dollar millionaires within a period of 12 months, as a stronger naira and new business growth helped reverse some of the wealth losses caused by the currency’s sharp depreciation over the past two years, according to new data from the 2026 Africa Wealth Report...

Streetinvestor2:
The other government pegged at 450 and the present is pegging at 1300 plus.
It is still pegging nothing special
If not pegging why is it not at 1000 by now with all the improvements in dollar supply

It can’t be pegging if the open market rate is not far away.

chimex38:
Same government that bought 7% stake did DR a favour?
Even after withdrawal of the 20% stake, still came thru backdoor to see if they can increase their stake after Local refinery proved unprofitable?

Present FG needed the DR much more than than DR needed FG.

It was the PIA during Buhari tenor that did DR the greatest favour.
Even Buhari wanted to remove subsidy, but felt the timing was wrong and shifted it by 6-months or so..
Yet, it didn't materialize?
Why? Cushion effect were far from largely operational despite ceremonial commissioning.
WATS the Cushion effect?
DANGOTE REFINERY.



You say forex stability?
Present FG has been good at maintaining the fluctuation rate. + the non-oil sector boost.. Yes, i agree
These are just after-effect.

The initial primary forex crisis solutions did less a favour to DR than DR did to the FG


whether we like it or not DR was part of the boldness for PBAT to remove the subsidy
even PBAT tenure, felt the effect of this forex crisis initially to the extent we had to concession our oil reserve.
But as DR became fully operational at close to maximum capacity, 70%+ of import that usually makes up forex pressure was wiped off!!
And you say FG did Dangote a favour? As if we don't know Dangote tries to be neutral in every Government.

DR was a strong contributor to forex crisis and eventuall stability.. Reducing the monumental pressure on forex after Subsidy removal.

Also, during the forex-crisis instability in Buhari regime, DR was granted special exemption and concession.
Present FGT would also have no choice than to grant him the same concession..
Why?
Cuz DR brings much more value to the FG via the broader economy than the FG does to it..
So it's actually more of the other way round.
Dangote Helped the present FG.
Granting DR any special forex exemption or favour does not in any way signal altruistic govt policies towards him.. Naaa...
The govt knew they were going to benefit more from him. The ripple effect across all FG micro and macro indicies would be massive.
Not to mention a govt than has an equity stake and still wants to buy more via back door?
present FG has more of the percentage benefit..

You are arguing out of context. The subsidy removal is the reason Dangote is able to maintain fuel supply to Nigeria. If you maintain subsidy at 200 naira while the market price is 1400, you would kill his business. If you supply him crude for 200 naira, you would drain Government’s revenue from oil sales. If on the other hand, you decide to maintain FX peg at 450/$ with net reserves of just around $3 Billion, you would get to a point where the Government would even struggle to find FX for Dangote in all of his operations needing FX.

Heishere:
You are proud announcing to us that Dangote is importing crude oil into a major oil producing country as a positive Tinubu policy?

Dangote always knew he would import crude and no, Nigeria is not a major oil producing country, she is rather an oil dependent country.
Nigeria is currently the 15th largest oil producer in the world for a country of 230 million people. China produces x3 more than Nigeria and they are not usually referred to as major oil producer.

From Dr Toks on Twitter


“Tinubu's reforms ensured Dangote survived. Dangote himself has said it severally so who are you to speak otherwise?

Without the FX reforms, where would Dangote source FX easily to import crude weekly? How would he price his product with 4 different exchange rates? In what currency would he sell? Naira or FX? If he sells in FX, how would marketers source FX in a country with $3bn net reserves?

Without the removal of subsidy, the refinery wasn't going to start. At best, he would refine and export without participating in the local market. Today, Dangote can adjust his price according to crude oil rates without waiting for directives from the FG. This is the lifeline of the business. Take this away and the refinery will crumble.

What about Naira-for-crude, which has eliminated dollar sourcing pressure on the refinery?

Mind you, our non-oil exports also reached a record high. The FX reforms alone made our exports competitive and made repatriation easier for our exporters. A stable Naira also means our exporters can issue invoices without the fear of FX instability eroding their margins. In 2026, we are at $9.32bn = N13trn. In 2022, our non-oil exports were $4.8bn = N2trn. Exporters have hit a jackpot across the country.

You can only exhibit your political bias to a certain point. Economics will break it. Now you want to run away from politics. You have become a fan of PBAT, but you are afraid to come out openly. I can bet that you will vote for him, just like other financial, investment, and wealth managers and other sensible Nigerians who are reasonable enough to set aside their political and ethnic bias.”

@mikeapollo @Streetinvestor2

lovewins:
You're hearing it first here

We are beating South Africa on Thursday. This South African team is bad, and thankfully it will work in our advantage.

This might turn into a blessing in disguise for the falcons who rarely get games after major tournaments. Now we would be busy and enable the team try out new players. NFF could use this opportunity to also bring in a more quality coach (perhaps the Ivorian coach or a former player with coaching experience from the class of 1999).

mikeapollo:
Apparently, you are employed and receiving salaries, maybe in dollars.
That is why you have the luxury of talking about international purchases using dollar card.

You are like the Queen, wife of the King of France, who was informed that her starving subjects had no bread to eat.
Her response was: ''let them eat cake''. She did not know that cake was even more expensive than simple bread that the subjects could not afford to buy.
She was oblivious to the conditions and daily lives of the poor, ordinary masses.
I guess you also live in similar luxury like Daniel Bwalya an co.
Well done

The poor and ordinary masses have always been there. In 2022, we had many of them and we were in danger of not having dollars to import (which would have doubled the amount of those poor in a few years). We were going to be a Srilanka with the struggle to get dollars to fufill our letters of credit due to the mounting FX backlog, the dominance of the black market and banks having no dollars to give.

mikeapollo:
Keep on rubbishing everything that Buhari did and keep praising and justifying whatever Tinubu did.

While some govt spoke-persons have even pleaded with Nigerians to bear with govt and be patient with the unprecedented inflation and hardships caused by the subsidy removal and floating of the naira, you are here defending, justifying, championing, rationalizing, substantiating, praising, eulogizing, celebrating the policies and effects with your full chest......all because of partisan loyalty to one man!.
Well done! Daniel Bwalya must come learn work from you.

When last did this happen?

mikeapollo:
I am talking about effect of inflation from May 29, 2023 to now.
Any effect of printing of naira in 2022 and early 2023 had already reflected in prices of goods by 28-May-2023 before this govt came to power.
What has happened from May29, 2023 to now is the making of this govt and cannot be attributed to any printing of money by Buhari.
The abrupt subsidy removal and the floating of naira from N450 to N1,450 are the main cause, creating very severe cost-push inflation in the economy.

This is so amusing and too novel an argument to make. We printed 6 trillion naira in 2022 and increased our money supply exponentially. Inflation was already on the rise for several months leading to May 2023.
Buhari and Emie bobo had already printed over 3 trillion as at May 2023.
The printing from 2022 was on steroids and fed itself into 2023 (in addition to the removal of subsidy and floating) plus the one Tinubu printed for the remainder of 2023 to balance his 2023 budget thereby making 2024 hell for the naira due to these cumulative factors.
If we didn’t remove subsidy or float, the problem would still be there but rising steadily.
When we floated and removed subsidy at once, we brought it out all at once in all of its monstrosity instead of a slow steady rise postponing the evil days.

mikeapollo:
This scenario you pointed out confirms the damage inflation has caused under the govt.
Imagine citizens who were planning to save up to N50m to buy a house. Now, they have to look for N150-N200m. And this real life matter, dashing the hope of the people because their income has not increased three-fold.

Do you think printing around 13 trillion in 2022 and 2023 didn’t contribute to that inflation? Do you believe the inflation was caused by just this Government alone and not the previous one?

mikeapollo:
You don't want to say how much this govt has been borrowing.
The debt stock does not tell how much the govt has borrowed because it is a cumulative balance.

If you dodge, I catch you. Cunning man die, cunning man bury am.

So should I say it in dollars or just in naira? A road you borrow 50 Billion naira to construct in 2023 would have been around 200 Billion naira in 2025/2026. Would you borrow 50 Billion naira in 2025/2026 for thesame road?