donholy28:
Its not d same God...don't deceive urself....read d Quran

Please just stop here, religious fanatism should not be encouraged in our society especially in a forum like this with many young people



@OP Our thoughts, wishes and some of our actions will not prevent the presidency from succeeding if they do what is necessary to succeed. God bless us all

It looks good so far, its not a wonder why he Is delaying in appointment of ministers because some ministries may be dropped and the knowledge requirement of heading ministries with multiple requirements requires a full technocrat and not a politician

Already, there are indications that party members and politicians are already disqualified from heading ministries because of sensitivity issues relating to the ministries they would be heading, but let's whatch and see what happens, it can only make sense to analyze when the final list comes out

"Our source was told by a close government source that..."

"...locations of assets suspected to have been illegally acquired were reportedly listed in the said list, which was said to have been a product of years of painstaking discreet investigation abroad...."

Bla bla bla.. Lol

Maybe you should ask the Newspapers publishing these stories to see if there's a credible source beyond "our source who pleaded anonimity"

oluwafemi113:
Am so sure my brothers from South East are the once lobbying for appointment

This statement is uncalled for now, stop promoting hate

Unverified news

Fake news everywhere

Bevista:
Great opinion, but I think you are comparing apples with oranges. The Conditional Cash Transfer Program (CCTP) is not an equivalent of Unemployment Claims, but rather an equivalent of Food Stamps Program, which pays about $125 monthly to over 45million Americans. In 2014, the US govt spent about $74billion on this program alone. There has to be some merits to it. The target of such programs is not necessarily the unemployed, but rather the poorest and most vulnerable in the society.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with your alternatives, but it can run concurrently with the CCTP - It must not be either or. Keynesian economics gave birth to Fiscal expansion by governments, because he believed that "in the long run we are all dead". What's the essence of having great plans for the future when people are dying today. There has to be balance in planning.

Yeah, very powerful argument there, I believe our government can concurrently run both, we have the means to fund both, especially if we plug the leaks in NNPC, NPA, FIRS etc which costs an estimated $60 to $100 billion dollars annually from our economy.

I replied your FTC article today, I'm glad we're both on the same page on this issue, at least we can run both, we have the money and both will bring economic expansion to our country

Bevista:
First of all, let’s get some records straight. According to the APC campaign manifesto, the proposed CCTP is intended to “…give N5, 000 to the poorest and most vulnerable 25 million over a phased period”.

This has been erroneously interpreted to mean unemployment benefits for the unemployed. That is not entirely true, the proposed program is more similar to the Food Stamp Program in the US which is quite different from Unemployment claims. Secondly, the program is not to be implemented in one fell swoop, but to be phased over 5 years at 5million persons per year, costing about N25billion/month (N300billion/year) .

FREE HANDOOUTS / WASTE OF RESOURCES?
For those who think this program is a waste of public resources, I have a few questions to ask. Why is it acceptable for the country to spend about N150billion for 2500 persons (NA members, their aides and other NA staff) and yet some of us consider it outrageous for the same amount of money to be spent on 2.5million ordinary Nigerians? Why is it ok for the country to spend N1billion to feed 1 family and it is not ok to spend that same amount to feed 5,000 families? Why was it ok for the government (though AMCON) to bail out a few rich banks with over N5.7trillion naira and yet it is not ok to spend N1.5trillion to bail out 25million Nigerians? Our priorities and choices reflect our values. We live in one of the most dehumanizing countries in the world, with immeasurable inequality.

Why is it that when it is time to spend some money that will benefit the poor people directly, that is when we realize that we need money for infrastructure and other things, and yet we find it very convenient to allow politicians in cahoots with the CABAL to plunder the treasury (legally and illegally) with reckless abandon. I have heard we will soon be approving N9billion for 469 persons to improve their wardrobe, while millions wallow in poverty – what a joke!

THE US FOOD STAMP TEMPLATE
The US implements the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) known as the Food Stamp Program. This program provides food-purchasing assistance for low and no-income people living in the US. According to Wikipedia, SNAP benefits cost the US govt $74.1billion in fiscal year 2014 and supplied roughly 46.5million Americans with an average of $125.35 for each person per month in food assistance. (This program is completely different from the Unemployment Claims that is also implemented monthly).

Similar programs have been implemented across developed and developing economies with a good measure of success.

ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Still using SNAP as our benchmark, economic research has shown that every $1 that is spent from SNAP results in about $2 - $3 of economic activity. Infact, according to the US Congressional Budget Office, SNAP benefits is rated one of the two most cost effective of all spending and tax options for boosting growth and jobs in a weak economy. Also, the Food Research and Action Centre claims that “putting more resources quickly into the hands of the people most likely to turn around and spend it can both boost the economy and cushion the hardships on vulnerable people who face a constant struggle against hunger”.

Most economists will find the above explanation a lot more intuitive. The way the transmission mechanism for the program works is that – the total spending by the beneficiaries will lead to increased aggregate demand; firms will invest more to increase their productive capacity to meet this increased demand; this usually leads to an uptick in employment.

When huge amounts of money is spent on a few rich folks, what you get is that most of the money is stashed up in cash in home vaults, fixed in bank deposits, spent on buying properties or/and stocks, etc. Very little proportion of the money goes into spending on real commodities that can stimulate the economy.

ALTERNATIVES
People have suggested that it would be wiser to rather invest the money in infrastructure or/and give the money as loans to SMEs. The thinking is that this will lead to improved infrastructure and more job creation.

My view is that, usually, governments don’t implement these social programs in isolation. It is not meant to replace investments and other developmental programs but to complement it and serve as a stop-gap measure to support the vulnerable in difficult times. Why does the US government not choose to invest the SNAP money in infrastructure instead? Infact, why do they even borrow to implement this program? We are talking about $75billion which is 3x our total annual budget being spent on this program alone.

CHALLENGES
There are obvious challenges that may hamper the successful implementation of this program. First of all, there is no proper database to identify the target beneficiaries. There is also the risk of politics, nepotism, corruption, blackmail and sentiments affecting the process of selecting beneficiaries and implementation of the program.

CONCLUSION
The purpose of this writeup is to show that there is empirical economic research and evidence to support the implementation of such programs and that Nigeria can afford N300billion (N25b x 12) per year to support her most vulnerable citizens.

This program is not entirely an APC program. The National Poverty Alleviation Programme (NAPEP) has been using this interventionist program for more than 8 years now, albeit reaching only a few households. The APC simply wants to widen the nozzle of the hose to make it reach more households. (just google NAPEP CCT program - codenamed COPE) http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/06/napep-disburses-n380m-on-cope-scheme/

However, as we do not have the culture of accountability & probity, I will be reluctant to recommend this program at this time. Not because I see anything fundamentally wrong with the economics and mechanics of the program, but rather because I am not confident we have the institutions to implement it successfully. Remember, in the past we have had beautiful programs like Fuel Subsidy, Fertilizer Subsidy, MAMSER, MDGs, Sure-P, Amnesty program, etc. All these programs have failed, not because there is anything inherently wrong with them, but simply because of the Nigerian factor.

Bro, its good you brought this out in a topic so we can further expand this debate from my last FTC topic

My argument was not trash this program, but if it is meant to be a replacement to empower SMEs with business loans, then I completely disagree. By the way, do you know that if we count 25million citizens, you will have at least 5 to 10 million graduates? This programme should NEVER include graduates who should be empowered with business loans and startup capital, it should rather be for aged people, sick people who cannot work, kids without parents or with incapable parents, homeless people and kids etc.

In that regard, we should be talking about another extra $100 billion naira extra empowerment scheme for graduates and SMEs, I guess its time for Nigeria to bring out that money and stop wasting it. Yes, let's bring it out,

$20 billion dollars was reported missing in NNPC and nothing happened to our economy, that's almost N4 trillion

Another $20 billion dollars was reported to have lost by NPA through NIPC based on fraudulent import waivers yet our economy didn't collapse, that's another N4 trillion, totalling N8 trillion naira that we know of,

So, investing just N1.2 trillion annually to kickstart 120,000 SMEs and generate about 3 to 4 million jobs annually, should it be so difficult?

Comment modified, waiting for more information on this NASS package issue

Volksfuhrer:


Your macro-economics sucks!

The money is not a waste as some would have you believe. In fact the approach is brilliant!

The capitalism that you alluded to wouldn't have survived without these programmes. The Western economies have their own versions too, so Nigeria need not be an exception.

Let's cut to the chase. If the payments reach their intended targets, the recipients will in all probability spend all of it. Why? 5000 naira is still too little to keep body and soul together for a month. And whatever they spend becomes increased revenue for other businesses within the economy which multiply sales! Imagine the multiplier effect on the economy.

Secondly, parents/guardians who carried the burden of these youth's welfare are also relieved of a part of the burden. What was spent on the youth before can now be channelled into more productive ventures. Which also stimulate the economy!

Mass-based economic stimulation like this cannot but create more employment to further mop up some of these unemployed youths eventually. Since increased effective demand translates to more sales and business growth.

And one more thing, there is a correlation between self esteem and productiveness because of how our mind works. The saying that poverty begets more poverty is not far off the mark. I concede that the project could make some dependent, but it could still get millions of others out of poverty which is huge. After all, everyone of them was already dependent anyway. I believe the payoff would more than compensate for the cost because of macroeconomic effects.

Let's look at the government side. Yes, the government would spend money initially, but the government would later benefit from increased revenue through taxes from the effects of economic expansion.

The Americans started social security to tackle the inherent contradictions within the capitalist economic system. And I believe that if the project is properly executed here in Nigeria, economic benefits would spread to all. You see, concentrating wealth in the hands of a minute few, or marginalizing the greater number of your fellow citizens from wealth truly sucks.

Don't get me wrong, I still agree with you that capitalism rocks; but I put no stock in your ilk of capitalism.

The humble submission of a fellow Nigerian.

I wrote on a frontpage topic about this yesterday:

https://www.nairaland.com/2383313/better-alternative-n5000-monthly-allowance

I disagree with you, don't get me wrong, let's analyze this further.

If you pay N5,000 to about 20 million Nigerians, this will spur or increase producting but most of these would be at the lowest end of the production class. What I mean by this is, with N5,000 you will observe some significant increase in sales for roadside sellers and retailers of foodstuff and provisions, restaurants will witness a small increase, the most people who would witness the most significant sales being recharge card dealers and business centers (Apologies this is a summary without estimate figures)

But from my suggestion in the article I posted on the link I provided, investing this money on businesses will do the following:

1. Create Jobs: each business worth 10 million will be able to employ at least 8 to 15 persons with an estimate pay of 30 to N50,000 salary monthly leading to about 2 to 3 million jobs created annually based on the ripple effect of higher purchasing power of people and business expansion

2. These employees and businesses become taxable so there is a recycle effect of the money invested into the economy. Normally, when you pay N5,000 the only people you would be able to tax are businesses, not the beneficiaries because N5,000 is not enough to start any meaningful business

3. With my suggestion, you stimulate growth in many sectors of the economy including real estate (because more people can afford house and office rent), production factories including those producing for homes (like matrasses, home furniture and accesories), telecom and technology companies (more businesses can afford to put their empoyees on telecom plans for office use), more business and expansion for e-commerce companies including business listing directories who will employ more staff to go into new areas to enlist businesses etc. Banks will also expand to new areas to cater for new businesses springing up within these communities. The list is endless

With my suggestion, in 4 years, you would create not just 10 million jobs but also another 10 million extra jobs within the economy because GSM companies for instance would expand, banks will expand etc. By doing this, you would have also satisfied your objective to pay 20 million Nigerians as well as expand and grow the economy with increased productivity and Internally Generated Renue (IGR)

I would be writing a more comprehensive article on this hopefully in the next few days or so

Cheers!

I wrote a frontpage Article about this yesterday, providing a better alternative, some of which were highlighted by this artcile. Read here:

https://www.nairaland.com/2383313/better-alternative-n5000-monthly-allowance

foxxynik:

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Considering qualification will drive us back to our current situation...
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The 5k goes to all unemployed and most poorest... How will you suggest qualification to the poorest Nigerians?
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Bros... I admire ur suggestions and opinions... But from the OP... You made mention of the policy to affect our economy... Please, note that Nigeria is supposedly one of the richest country in the world... Amongst the first 6 world oil producers.... With standard agricultural production.... Nigeria is rich... If we should curtail our expenses.... Then...the government must look into the salary scales....and cut down the senator's salaries and other parastatals...
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A token of 5k monthly payment to unemployed and poorest Nigerians CAN NEVER AFFECT OUR ECONOMY....
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In other western countries... College graduates receive insurance pay.....
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Buhari will be receiving "stress allowance" as the president... and you'll say it won't affect the economy of this country... What about the sitting/wardrope allowance...?
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The government shouldn't consider any qualification.... Every Nigerian is entitle to the monthly allowance....

Bros I am completely on your side, but.. N5,000 montly will not affect the life on a Nigerian youth positively, especially an unemployed poor graduate. It won't make sense at all, may N25,000 will make some sense, but not N5,000. If it is applied to some other class of people, let's say undergraduates below 16 or so, fine, but not graduates or people above 21 with a formal education. Think about it.

If we're that rich as you suggested then I believe our annual budget would exceed N15 trillion and this will cater for both our capital development and social welfare programmes, but its much lower at that moment

By qualification, I don't mean certificate or educational requirement, I mean prerequisite, for example you need to be between a certain age, you should not be employed with an organization paying up to so and so etc...

Someone has already nominated me:

https://www.nairaland.com/2383313/better-alternative-n5000-monthly-allowance/3#34832251

I hereby second the nomination as special Adviser to the President on Youth Welfare and Development

He has been declaring but never contesting. Last time he declared Obama made an animated porn of him frolicking at the white house with girls, like "This is how white house is gonna be with Trump in it"

knightsTempler:
Here is what Cheney said in the 1990s when he defended HW Bush for not invading Iraq after kicking them out of Kuwait.


Welcome to the real world, Africans open your eyes and wise up

No word for african leaders? They seem to be the biggest culprits here. If you cannot keep yor house in order you're inviting your neighbours and enemies over for tourism

Dead bones shall rise again. Germany was destroyed when a tyrant went crazy! It was rebuilt and it is the 3rd biggest manufacturer in the world today

babamajor:
D write up is ok but wat u fail to realise is dat witout electricity those businesses Wil not trive, so if govt a way of feeding people for now it's still ok till wen there Wil be light nd also wen we Wil av a realible data bank, cus witout dat it Wil fail.

These businesses will power themselves using solar panels, inverters and backup batteries, all these will be captured within the N10 million naira budget

galantjoe:
during sec sch economics i was taught that it is work of govt to redistribute national wealth. so paying N5,000 to poorest citizen is good step in right direction and attrmpt to redistribute national cake among the poorest.
somebody said 5k is no money but according to world bank less 50million nigerians earn less than 2 USdollar a day.
someone said it willl encourage laziness but US, SA, Dbai etc are doing it for many years ago.

$2 a day gives approximately N12,000 monthly which is more than double what the programme proposes to add to that income.

Bevista:
Your writeup has merits, but let's expand the debate further.

First of all, the govt estimates that 25million people will be captured in the program, but will be phased over 5years at 5million persons per year. This translates to N25billion per year. But let's even work with ur figures:

Your model estimates that 100-150k persons will be employed earning about 30-40k per month. This translates to an aggregate salary of N3-6billion monthly, much lower than the projected N25billion aggregate income.

Also, what happens to the remaining 19.8million persons the govt intended to reach? Also note that the 100k persons that will get your jobs will not necessarily be the category the govt intended to reach. This is supposed to be a kind of Social Security for the most vulnerable in the society.

Please note that N100billion in the hands of 5million persons is a completely different thing compared to N100billion in the hands of only 200k persons. In the first case, the aggregate demand will stimulate increased production from our companies which will give rise to more employment.

The US used the "Food Stamp" strategy with some measure of success, so it might be worth trying.

Ok good analysis, of which I share differences with, my opinion though. I understand that my argument costs like 1.2 trillion annually as compared with 125 billion from your estimate, but I think there are benefits of expanding the budget to achieve a higher objective

Here is my reason:

In the US for instance, jobless claims could average about $1,000 monthly, but on the average, a studio apartment (self contain) costs about $600, which gives you extra $400 to take care of feeding and other bills, that's if you don't share. You also get to qualify for up to 50% reduction or more on other services like electrcity and gas. Internet and cable cost is around $100 or less

Compare this to N5,000 monthly allowance. The average cost of rent in some cities in Nigeria apart from Lagos, PH and Abuja is like 100,000 which way beyond what N5,000 can afford, talk about other bills. I don't see any improvement of life in this case in the next 5 years.

N25,000 would have been an ideal amount but the economy cannot cater for N500 billion naira monthly welfare package at this time.

So here is the scenario I am looking at:

At 150,000 jobs monthly, we are looking at about 2million jobs annually based on employee turnover and shift work implementation, in a period of 4 years, we will have about 12 to 16 million jobs created based on business expansion and higher production stimulation due to much improved standard of living and multiplication effect of economy growth.

Now here is another comparison between your scenario and mine:

Production stimulation:

Because of the low purchasing power of N5,000 production isn't stimulated so much except at the low end of production cycles and fewer jobs are created. For instance, N5,000 income to a poor person would only increase market for an akara fryer or pop corn maker who are at the lowest end of the production scale, it induces more production to the larger scale producers too but the effect isn't far reaching

With 10,000 businesses and 100,000 jobs, there is more production stimulation at the medium to higher end of the production scale, for instance, service companies like banks and other small and medium enterprises like restaurants, laundry businesses etc thrive. Real estate related businesses expand because N30,000 has much more purchasing power than N5,000. Factories. Also expand their production due to the higher purchasing power of people.

teeman777:
this is similar to youwin initiative of jona administration.
what was the result?

I applied so te-so te- so te google sabi me pass obama

That's because only 1,500 were to benefit annually, the scope was limited. However, this is quite different, it benefits up to 100,000 and its not a grant but non-interest loans, it comes with better security and qualification process, not when someone else is writing a business plan for beneficiaries who know nothing about business.

400billionman:
Poster, very sound analysis.

I tot you would falter on figures as most people usually do.

Thanks bro

chimaria:
nice one op

Thanks!

maestroz:


since buhari is yet to release his ministerial list. i hereby nominate you as a SPECIAL ADVISER on UNEMPLOYMENT affairs.
I trust you would deliver on set targets.

Thank You sir!

maestroz:


since buhari is yet to release his ministerial list. i hereby nominate you as a SPECIAL ADVISER on UNEMPLOYMENT affairs.
I trust you would deliver on set targets.

I appreciate sir!

I read a post earlier where some people were calling others names for believing this story from another source that made frontpage. I guess this is another source

rabimlomo:
Good one. Hope they don't look for other cunning ways to make the money back

Security votes amounting to billions annually, they don't account for this money to anyone, its theirs to use while the police still does the job on their own salaries

Good move, I support!

persius555:
Where in the world has this system of govt charity worked. Abeg, PMB should channel all that fund into generating power across the counter. Infrastructure inverstment is a force multiplier for the economy and that is what we need at this point not unending wastage. This govt should learn from the mistakes of last govt.Sure-P and the other chariry programs was a waste of public funds. Op raised the issue of having a working database. How close are we to that? This is another subsidy system in the making. It will not work.

By charity, you mean dashing people money? Completely outside the scope of this suggestion. This project is a loan scheme for serious entrepreneurs, there is no part of any developed society where people find it so difficult to access loans and credit from government to startup businesses, its mostly in Nigeria that I see people thinking that even with steady electricity, people won't need loans to startup business, very wrong in my opinion

Obiagelli:

Not bad, in fact I like this.

Thanks!

Engrpj:

I Totally disagree with ur opinion....this country is not yet developed to the extent of using Security system.bla bla or BVN to track and know what someone is doing with money...and in the aspect of giving grant to people in order to start business and employ others... how sure are u they will use the money given to them for the purpose of opening business if a Supritendent of Police will refuse using orderly so as to siphon the allowance of an orderly been given to them how sure are u the beneficiaries will employ up to 10/people? let them do whatever they will do.

Did you read the last paragraph of my suggestion? I think you should read again, I emboldened that "This money should not be a grant but a non-interest loan", futhermore, security systems in place can track your financial history, they don't need to chase you around, you will definitely come to them, someday you'll need something from a bank, you might commit even a traffic violation etc and that's it, your run ends. Technology is evolving in Nigeria, you will realize this when you get to the police office to get a clearance for something and your thumbprint of BVN or National ID is required..

joseph1832:
Bro it looks and sounds like SURE-P and YOUWIN! Giving one a 10 million Naira loan to start a business is outrightly going way over board.

I will still hold my ground and say the best way for government to empower Nigerians is to provide stable power supply, thereby empowering small businesses to grow and big business to grow bigger, the bigger the growth the more room for employment.

And also government should make sure that those business that grow exponentially pay good money to their workers, not rip them off like what we see happening today.

I understand and I agree with your long-term solution. But my suggestion is mainly based on government's plan to be paying people N5,000 montly which to me doesn't really make much economic sense as this money goes into the drain just like that.

Also, the business empowerment programmes are policies being used in developed countries to boost job creation, it is also in place in States like Lagos and Anambra already, I am not suggesting a far-fetched objective, some states are already keying into it and its working. Even with electricity generation, some companies will grow but new ones will still be unable to start without funding, people will simply have more electricity to watch TV, business still needs money to startup