₦airaland Forum

Abeg stop using style to turn your missives into politics. Our portfolios might be doing well, but we -- "We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" -- need to always remember that the stock market is not the economy.

Your anecdote objectively does not translate to the population. Not even 5% of Nigerians invest in stocks. Conversely, more than 60% live below the poverty line, per World Bank stats -- a number that is surging upward in recent years because of high inflation and slower economic growth than necessary. Awareness of investment possibilities is certainly an issue, but poor Nigerian households spend 70% of their income on food alone. Investing is a luxury among the hungry.

So celebrate your success, sure, but stop pretending that most Nigerians have real access to the opportunity you enjoy -- if only they'd show some discipline (SMH). Or that our impressively corrupt governments aren't to blame.

Rant over. What are you uppity people buying?

Mankind2024:
...

This reality led me to a deeper question: Why do so many citizens of this same country, one that is rewarding many ordinary citizens handsomely, spend so much time cursing it and its leaders?

...

So what will happen to Ecobank?

Sunrisepebble:
It will be a miracle if Access pays an interim dividend this year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/nigeria-s-access-bank-to-sell-down-foreign-units-after-central-bank-order?taid=69fa2a3c16d544000169c559&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Don't follow Claude blindly o, although I kinda agree. But markets are not always rational.

Those who have been burned by Access for years suffer from loss aversion and anchoring: Losing 20% of your money is more painful than doubling your money is joyful, and people usually think the past will repeat itself.

Which is great for us long-termers.

isaacosas01:
Let’s say you hate Access. Let’s say everything bad you’ve heard about it is true. The dividend is never coming.
Fine. Even if every single bear case argument is correct — Access should still not be trading at ₦25.50.”

My ₦54 short term price target requires one assumption — that Access Holdings continues to operate as a going concern. That’s it. No dividend. No earnings growth. No re-rating. No good news. Just existence. A bank with ₦53.4 trillion in assets, 60 million customers, operations across 22 countries, a CBN banking licence, and ₦4.33 trillion in verified equity does not trade at 0.31x book indefinitely simply because investors are unhappy with management.

Even the analysts who have never recommended Access, who have the lowest price targets on the street, who are most sceptical — their bear case is ₦33. Not ₦25.50.”

At ₦25.50, the market is saying Access is hiding ₦3 trillion in secret losses
Access has ₦4.33 trillion in audited shareholders’ equity. At ₦25.50, the market values the entire company at ₦1.36 trillion. That means the market believes ₦2.97 trillion of that equity simply does not exist

You are buying Africa’s largest bank by assets for less than 2 years of earnings
Access earned ₦743 billion after tax in 2025. It earned ₦216 billion in Q1 2026 alone — annualised that is ₦866 billion. At ₦25.50, the entire company costs ₦1.36 trillion. You are paying 1.57x one year of earnings for a bank with ₦53.4 trillion in assets. Africa’s largest bank by total assets — trades at 1.57x. That is not a discount. That is a pricing error.

That is, eh. At this rate, they have to pay me interest o.

Sunrisepebble:
What is the method to this dividend payment. I’ve not seen mine yet

So you're just applying a P/E of 5 to annualized earnings across the board?

aj8:
No further comments. Purely on earnings…after the noise, each should find its value. Just Common Sense.

Why is it a buy, please? Ignore the dividend.

pluto09:
We the latest results from access, the bank is definitely a buy.
I just don't think it is necessary for someone to think he has to defend a stock because he has a stake. The market should be allowed to do it's thing. Anyone that wants to sell should sell and those who want to buy should buy.

Okay, so try answer your very good question na.

emmanuelewumi:
I only asked a question na

Lol. No be fight na. We're together. You make a good point.

So how much of the slow-down in NAHCO's revenue would you ascribe to the Gulf war?

emmanuelewumi:
Was there a war in the middle east in Q1 2025

We are comparing Q1 2026 to Q1 2025 na. Seasonality is accounted for.

ogawisdom:
you people need to understand that Q4 is usually the strongest for NAHCO, they usually start slow in Q1, seasonality in business.

So CADBURY, BETAGLAS, BUAFOODS, NESTLE, NAHCO, OKOMUOIL disappoint, while cement makers DANGCEM, BUACEM, WAPCO still firing.

Consumer stress v. government spending ramp up?

No wonder they threw the "airport hotel" bone to investors.

Sunrisepebble:
It just didn’t make sense

Deceleration with BETAGLAS o. Wahala dey.

sterlingD:
BETAGLASS Q1
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/46893_BETA_GLASS_PLC-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2026_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2026.pdf

NAHCO. Finally growth appears to have stalled somewhat. As predicted.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/46899_NIGERIAN_AVIATION_HANDLING_COMPANY_PLC-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2026_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2026.pdf

Go to church and confess.

ositadima1:
You are fully loaded. As in? Who load you?

Okay. I see now that you weren't really responding to the gist of my comment, just presenting your view on cement stocks generally. Nothing spoil. Let's rest for now.

ositadima1:
So what is wrong with presenting my take on WAPCO and cement stocks in general? Is there a rule that says an argument can’t veer in another direction? Okay, WAPCO is growing fast, but I pointed out the caveats based on facts, why is that a problem? In this case, I was responding to your comment, not going off point.

It was an aside comment to the main argument just to temper my bullishness on WAPCO by highlighting a possible downside risk. Why is it wrong?

[BTW, try not to question people's motives or perceived biases. It comes across as petty. Just engage with the argument. Feel free to destroy it all you want; I won't take it p.]

ositadima1:
You said this, that was the trigger, which it is erroneous to claim is the only way. But again, people like flip-flopping to score one, huh.

I was wondering what was going on! 🤦🏽‍♂️

ositadima1:
Oh, I didn’t know that, lol.

Sunrisepebble:
The argument from day one has been about fastest growth.

Thanks for the analysis. True, all are firing well, but there's no question based on your numbers that Lafarge is growing the fastest. Impressively, all that growth is accruing to the benefit of equity holders: Unlike its peers, Lafarge has no net debt.

Even more, WAPCO's valuation is still well below BUACEM's.

The only distant worry is if industry competitive dynamics change, and Dangote, given its sheer scale, decides to trigger a price war. Logic and game theory suggest that's unlikely sha, as it'll hurt all three oligopolies.

ositadima1:
I think they all did well. The attached table is a direct extraction from the financials without any adjustments. Also, note that Dangote Cement faced significant exchange losses, which negatively impacted their Pan-African segment. I think, in the short term, the momentum we are seeing in cement stocks will continue (it's a buy ).



No bias or anything just raw data.

This is going to be a problem for the market if this continues...

GeeKudi:
Brent at 120 😳😳

Don't just look at absolute numbers. Growth is (nearly) everything when it comes to valuation.

yMcy56:
You're considering revenue growth, Yes...
But looking holistically,
Dangcem still beats them hands down...

Profit After Tax:
DANGCEM: 321bn
WAPCO: 98bn
BUACEM: 176bn

Na Arithmetics I sabi no vex ...😁

They all tried to be honest and IMO
* WAPCO doubled 2025 profit ... Commendable! 🎊👍🍾🎉

HesInMe:
The industry is more like an elephant (Dangote), a leopard (BUA), and a cheetah (Lafarge). The cheetah is outrunning the others on asset efficiency and profitability, but the leopard is not dulling, and you know you can't ignore the mighty elephant.

Thanks. So like clean up of oil (and other hazardous materials) spills?

deathwing:
Mostly oil-associated waste management. They have a few (dangote etc) but highly valuable clients. Also looking to go into municipal waste. Has the easy money been made? I am betting not. As the Oil/Gas industry is expanding on steroids due to specific reforms to increase our oil and gas production TIP is well positioned to eat good for years to come.

Could someone please enlighten me on this TIP sef? I know they're into waste management but what is the main driver of value for the company? And has all the easy money been made?

Buying Leadway today will someday be like buying WAPCO when it was below 50. Bookmark this comment.

If you know, you know.

crownprince2017:
May lead way not lead you astray ooooo..

Ask them at Leadway o. Best of breed insurance company.

megawealth01:
When will this people list at NGX?

Usual insider trading warning applies. 🤷🏽‍♂️

Sunrisepebble:
608k

So buy ACCESSCORP then?

nedu666:
1 day to month end. Access never release results while some are already releasing Q1. I suspect the results must be bad hence they will release both 2025 full year and 2026Q1 to calm the market

Please make una continue this bet. I'll start selling when WAPCO 20x my entry price.

Iyogogo iyogogo
Ka anyi je na nke bishop na ego adigo
https://youtu.be/ZWSYCp-46h8?si=6hUJ8G04ymq4C6Ae

ositadima1:
So you’re on the opposite side of my bet, that’s good. Let’s see how it plays out.

I didn’t buy based on fundamentals, but on the stock’s technical structure. Also, I meant May month-end; this month has already ended.

You're right that it matters in the extreme case because of trading liquidity. But not in the cement manufacturers examples Madam gave.

ositadima1:
Because share quantity counts a lot, the fewer the shares, the easier(faster) it is for a stock to move, simply due to the law of demand and supply (or scarcity, or whatever term you choose to give it). I guess, as an investor, you might find it hard to understand.

Look at Airtel Africa as an extreme case: the fair value of Airtel Africa is far above its current share price, but because the free-floating shares are so few, there isn’t enough available to move the price. The same applies if you have too many shares in circulation with too many people holding them, movement will be slower as well.

I've never really understood why people care so much about share count when comparing valuation across firms. It's utterly meaningless on its own.

Value is value whether you syndicate it with 1,000 shares or 1 billion shares. Surely investors can do the simple arithmetic.

yMcy56:
BUACEMENT has 34bn OS
WAPCO has 16bn OS
DANGCEM 16.9bn OS

Just considering the OS alone, WAPCO should catch up with BUACEMENT.......na my ghetto analysis be this 😁

DANGCEM na the baba for them all...

45x trailing earnings at some point

welzyj2:
NGXGROUP

Yeeee

When you tell people that one naira of bank earnings is not the same as one naira of WAPCO earnings, they will be fighting you.

Agbalowomeri:
Wahala for Nosa

Sometimes it's good to take money off the table but who would have guessed

All these banks sef

Could we be looking at early signs of a market contagion?

Financial contagion is the spread of market disturbances—mostly negative—from one country, sector, or asset class to others, often causing a domino effect of panic selling, high volatility, and reduced liquidity across global markets. It occurs through direct financial links (like bank lending), trade dependencies, or increased investor panic and herd behavior.

KarlTom:
Very crazy!

FIRSTHOLDCO sef dey collect