₦airaland Forum

Did you sleep through the last 60 years of Nigeria's economic history?

And even if you think oil is the more profitable use for the land, this arbitrary process -- revoking by fiat -- is not the way to go about this.

SonofElElyonRet:
Did you read that 2 oil wells were discovered on the land
The best Presco will get is compensation which they rightfully deserve. It's called "overriding public interest"

What does that even mean? If your property rights depend on who wins elections, who in their right mind would invest in any long-dated physical asset? In a country that desperately needs long-term, private investments in roads, airports, housing, energy, and yes, large-scale agrobusinesses, this is like shooting yourself in the head.

This stupid, short-sighted governor should immediately reverse.

toyeoye:
PRESCO
Elections have consequences

I don't understand this logic. N200bn, or about 86%, of the net proceeds will be used to acquire ARPN's agrobusiness, most of it for the oil palm plantation. Do you imagine that ARPN is selling its plantation at a discount to fair value, or is it more likely that Ellah will be paying a premium to get this valuable asset?

And, if they're buying at a premium, i.e., overpaying, how then will Ellah create value for shareholders? Acquisitions only make sense if 1) you're buying an asset at a discount, or 2) you pay fair value or a premium but exploit synergies post-combination with your existing business to extract value. But Ellah has no significant existing business.

Stockhunter:
But if ellah succeeds with this capital raise. The sky will be their limit. With that kind of capital any business will do exploit. Make we de watch sha.

Bruh. What's up with this "disgraced" matter that you keep flogging in every post nowadays?

Streetinvestor2:
Reality is coming gradually.
The disgraced ngx will shock them before end of the month. Then it will begin to shock thr pockets and portfolio. Then shocking them to stop appearing on this thread. That makes the messiah a trophy. Poverty go become thr mate
I have never hidden the fact that i am an igbo man before being a nigeria. I no be coward oh.
I don sabi long say na only ngx be our common interest. You have equally shown it at different times too here but dey pretend about it..lol. Then again I no dey see una...walahi

It's okay to be negative on the market. Markets rise and fall all the time. People can make serious money shorting the market (or more likely, selling and parking your money in fixed income). The problem here is that people are directing negative energy about other matters to this forum. And I agree: that's not very helpful.

kintus:
So many angry fellows in this forum lately.
Can we please channel this energy somewhere else?

We all came here for investment discussions, but the energy we're putting out isn’t right for this space. Money doesn’t like this kind of vibration.

Let’s keep things positive.
Wishing everyone a greenful and dirty December ahead. 💚💸

Market price-to-earnings ratios don't predict the likelihood of a market crash at all?

You're rewriting all of modern finance. If you're right, you'll earn the Nobel in economics. Don't bet on it.

ositadima1:
Market fragility refers to the probability that a shock triggers a large move because the market’s internal structure is weak. At that point, even minor news can cause a major crash.

... P/E ratios don’t capture any of this, they’re valuation tools, not stability indicators.

No need for the drama. I said it was a gut check, not a PhD thesis. It's more useful than you'd think. Let's think through this. Define the "risk" that you're trying to "gauge"?

ositadima1:
And this will be a check on market fragility? Are you kidding me?
P/E can tell you whether a stock is overpriced or not, t’s a valuation tool, not a risk gauge...

I think your proposal is flawed for what I intended to measure. A market can be cheap and extremely fragile.

There's an easier, first-order gut check: the current (or, even better, forward) market price-to-earnings ratio compared to historical trends. That's the total market cap of the All-Share Index divided by the total earnings of the listed companies.

Does anyone have that metric calculated by an analyst?

According to Simply Wall Street (take with a grain of salt):
3-year average market PE: 9.2x
Current PE: 8.2x

ositadima1:
Market Fragility Model - Simple Explanation

Think of market fragility like checking if a bridge is about to collapse. You don't wait for it to fall, you look for warning signs like cracks, rust, and stress points...

Commercial papers are discounted instruments: the interest is baked into the price of the CP. The difference between the discounted purchase price and the face value repaid at maturity is the investor's profit, or interest earned.

The discount rate relates to the annualized discount on the face value:
Discount = 10M face value * 18.34% over 365 days tenor = 1.834M
So you actually invest 10-1.834 = 8.166M cash
But at maturity, the issuer should pay you 10M face value (ignoring taxes and fees).

The implied yield is the annualized interest rate you're earning on cash invested. It's just the simple interest rate (i.e., interest/principal, expressed as a percentage):
So you'll earn 1.843M interest on principal of 8.166M invested over 365 days tenor
Or 1.834/8.166 * 100 = 22.46% per annum.

You use the implied yield to compare across different investment options.

Note: The calculated implied yield may be slightly different than your 22.5% because some don't count holidays as interest-earning days.

eziokwunwoko:
Please can some explain these commercial papers Discount yield and implied yield
365 days 10 Million on Discount yield of 18.34% and Implied yield 22.5%.

Calling a market bottom is a fool's errand. By the time you see a clear bottom, the uptrend is well on its way.

Agbalowomeri:
Bear never start. Where is the bottom?

Without question. The regulations will mandate broker reporting of client information, including valuation and capital gains. Happens everywhere capital gains are taxed.

mikeapollo:
In that case, FIRS would have access to stockbrokerage account of investors?

The SEC's role is to protect investors, but not from themselves. All a company needs to do is to make sure that the proposed security is legitimate on its face (the company is registered, financials have been audited, capital raise has shareholder/regulator approval, etc.), and that appropriate disclosures have been made before offering it to investors.

So, for instance, Ellah is legit (if you ignore their invisible financial report); secured shareholder approval at AGM; and it has to disclose in the offer prospectus that it'll dramatically be expanding its shares outstanding and that dilution of investors is a risk. If people decide to be mugu and invest, that's not SEC's ruwa.

The proposed "Dangote Foods" merger was denied because Dangote Sugar is publicly listed (so under SEC's oversight) and Dangote Rice was not operational at the time they submitted the merger deal for SEC review. So it did not pass the "on-its-face" test.

yMcy56:
I disagreed with this.
Are you saying any listed Company can just come up with any fund raising amount, push it to SEC and SEC just approve it without carrying out proper evaluation of the capabilities of such company?

If this is so, why did same SEC refused the merger of Dangfoods because of Dangrice??

Is one of the role of SEC not to protect investors and investors funds?

That's not the role of the SEC when it registers new securities (like new public offers).

The primary reason for registration of securities is to ensure that investors are given all the relevant information to guide them to make a realistic
evaluation of the merits of the securities and to decide whether or not to buy and at what price. Approval of listings is mostly a check-the-box function.

Whatever you think of Ellah Lake's prospects, you should definitely not read from the SEC's approval of the offer that the company can attract the desired funding.

yMcy56:
... The confidence with which ELLAH is going about this, and the fact that SEC approved the fund raising exercise shows there must have been some DD carried out that the company can achieve it, even if not all, at least, a larger part...

It's not a bad word. It's just a proxy for young eyeballs engaged in the digital era. I bet there's a correlation between porn viewership and future explosive growth in the digital economy. PhD thesis for a curious economist.

Agbalowomeri:
Shuuu!!!
How p*rn*graphy take enter bayi
Abi are you planning to list a company offering that service

Or just look out 5-10 years, and realize this will likely be a forgotten blip in the grand trend.

Demography is destiny. For all our problems, we're privileged to have front row seats to an evolving economy of 150+ million people, median age of 18 years, with an unquenchable appetite for food, drink, data, electricity, homes, roads, airports, payment solutions, loans, insurance, and pornography.

Close eye and BUY the best positioned companies a little at a time.

ogawisdom:
when panic selling dries up, look at bid and offer status to confirm. The daily losses slow, volume drops, and you start seeing small green days after long red ones. It means sellers are exhausted. Buy in stages sha because the new support can still be broken and it goes further down. you dont want to catch a falling knife by going fully into a stock on full offer immediately

How will you know when the "free fall" ends?

ogawisdom:
NAHCO on free fall

Aradel will surely drop to sub 550

The bear is just beginning, looking brutal already

Cash is king, make sure you have some waiting to buy as the free fall ends

What investment period are you looking at? 3-6 months?

I've said it before: We're too short-term focused. In the short term, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine.

Try looking out 3-5 years. If you truly believe that an upstart private-equity agro-processing firm with ever-changing strategic focus and virtually zero recurring revenue is a more worthwhile investment than one of Nigeria's largest banks with tentacles in payments, trade, lending, and pensions-fund management, I have a bridge to nowhere to sell you.

ositadima1:
Look at EllahLakes, the one you all keep taunting, it lost 5.96%, while your almighty NAHCO dropped 9.95%. How is that possible? According to you, Ellah should be losing 10% daily, lol.

Where’s EDUECO now? Since our heated debate began, between your AccessCorp and Ellah, which one has shed more? I’m not saying you can’t air your views, but it turned into a daily reminder of how “bad” Ellah supposedly is, yet actual investors don’t seem to share your opinion, given the resilience I’m seeing.

What witchcraft financial mathematics be this?

aj8:
Dangote Sugar Refinery :
Common Sense Target N71.2 - N89.00
Calculation based on Qtr 3 2025 earnings
...
Calculation:
(1.13+3.32) x4 x4 to range (1.13 +3.32) x4 x5
= 71.2 -89.00 Range
...

So Agro-Allied Resources and Processing Nigeria Limited (ARPN) -- the company Ellah wants to buy -- is going public at a huge premium to its intrinsic value? That public offer prospectus will be fire.

If it'll be clear enough to read, that is.

Divineability:
Ellah ...... L/K/P offer opens
https://businessday.ng/companies/article/ellah-lakes-receives-sec-approval-for-n235-billion-public-offer/

Not to rub it in, but let's not forget how some were flogging this 22% gross margin "tech" business as the next Moniepoint unicorn.

They know themselves.

ogawisdom:
POOR

Presently over valued

Stock price has risen, but fundamentals weakened

We have an oligopoly here in the cement market that is difficulty to disrupt given high costs of entry and distribution. They will fix the price as much as they want.

GeeKudi:
The Nigerian populace is at the mercies of its merciless capitalists. Here, prices can double over night at the slightest trigger and never come down. In Europe, at the onset of the COVID crisis when there was panic shopping everywhere, you enter a mall and the shelves are almost empty but prices stayed practically unchanged in stack contrast to what obtains in Nigeria. There should be stricter regulations/laws to protect Nigerian consumers from pribe gouging.

awesomeJ:
But it's still not fair on the masses na.

Something that they agreed to keep at 7k per bag last year.

How do you run operations at 19% EBIDTA in one market and then hike prices to extort 59% EBIDTA in your home country? And we keep saying rent is high.

Great insight! I read somewhere that investors underestimate just how much state and local governments, flush with cash following devaluation and subsidy removal, are investing in new infrastructure requiring cement. This industry has tremendous tailwinds ahead.

awesomeJ:
Who else noticed the bulk of DANGCEM's revenue growth came from a price increase in the Nigerian market.

Pan African prices were basically flat yoy at about 130k per ton, whereas Nigerian price went from about 116k to 165k per ton you, despite the fact that the currency is nearly 10% stronger yoy.


It looks like cement demand in Nigeria has price inelasticity

The industry is more like an elephant (Dangote), a leopard (BUA), and a cheetah (Lafarge). The cheetah is outrunning the others on asset efficiency and profitability, but the leopard is not dulling, and you know you can't ignore the mighty elephant.

thebargainhunte:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45237_BUA_CEMENT_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45238_DANGOTE_CEMENT_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

The two elephants in cement industry, they are just minting money.

Lol. It's not that bad na. Let's say they make N13 EPS this year, which is conservative. Even if you slap PE of 1.5x, which is low, that's N19.5.

Although that's 20+% down from current levels sha...

It's the relative underperformance on a grand scale vs. GTCO that is shocking. It's like man vs. machine. Access should be firing its entire board and senior management if they had any shame.

Mpeace:
N15 is possible

What a mess. 50% drop in EPS. I remember when people were arguing that recapitalization wouldn't meaningfully impact EPS because banks are money machines. Not so. Can't defy gravity forever.

bovali:
ACCESS
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45213_ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

I don't know. Sorry to disappoint. But since we're talking long term, current valuation is less of an issue, so let's consider the businesses. Maybe then you can decide.

FCMB is an established national bank that makes roughly 60% of revenue from interest from loans, 25% from securities trading, and 15% from fees. They are making a big push to increase fee income through digital services.
VFD is an upstart investment firm that makes 95% of revenue from investments, including illiquid private businesses, and 5% from fees.

Knowing this, which one do you think is more likely to be around in 10 years? Which could flourish more? Which would you prefer to own?

Redoil:
in the long run (10 years)

Over what investment period?

Redoil:
@ALL which will you go for or which do you think will be more profiatable: FCMB at N10 or VDF at N10

It's beyond shameful that Nigeria's biggest bank is acting so unprofessionally. And they wonder why they trade at deep discount to GTCO.

vacanci:
How come Access report is in so much secrecy.
we are just seeing codes and broken links everywhere.
Nothing on their website yet.
Nothing on NGX corporate disclosure yet

What legal process? They paid ~$1 billion to buy 80+% of the company. You think they're not going to control the Board?

lexy2lexy:
The Chinese are gradually taking over Lafarge. They don’t seem to care about the legal process

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45183_LAFARGE_AFRICA_PLC.-NOTICE_OF_BOARD_CHNAGES_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Beautiful. WAPCO is a N200 stock by any reasonable measure.

dapix:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45180_LAFARGE_AFRICA_PLC.-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

I admire your enthusiasm about the company. It is not shared. By recurring earnings, I mean monie-for-hand, predictable earnings. Like the ones Nestle makes when you buy Nido.

UCAP is a good comparator, but at least UCAP makes roughly 50% of its revenue from brokerage fees and commissions, the rest from investments. Risky, but waaay better than VFD, which earns less than 5% as fee income.

I'm sure VFD will be fine in bull markets. A rising tide lifts all the canoes. But when things go south, unless you have Gospel-like faith in management, look out below.

courage89:
VFD own subsidiaries that are generating recurring revenues and profits.
For example, they own VFD Micro finance. This company/ business is similar to NPF Microfinance bank. Recurring revenue and profits will be similar, depending on their differentiation, geographical focus and market share.
Also, they own Achoria capital group (Asset management, securities, advisory services). This business is similar to UCAP. Similar trend in recurring revenue and profits. UCAP is way bigger, with higher market share.

These revenues and profits couple with other subsidiaries’ will define their recurring revenue and profits.

Thanks. The question was a little tongue-in-cheek. I'm not sure most people understand what VFD does and, unless one is a very long-term investor, why one should invest in the stock.

How, for instance, do they generate recurring revenues and profits with all these illiquid non-public holdings?

courage89:
The company is considered your typical value investor company. They invest in public and private companies, businesses to drive shareholders value. They make money via proceeds of exits (sale of assets) from these companies, dividends and other synergies realized.

Their notable subsidiaries includes: VFD Microfinance Bank, VFD Group Ghana, VFD Group United Kingdom, VFD Tech, Anchoria Group (Asset management, securities, advisory). Invested companies includes: Abbey Mortgage Bank, Purple, CSCS, NASD PLC , NGX, Veritas Kapital Assurance, and others