₦airaland Forum

I like your faith, but I prefer the numbers:

Even if they scaled down their ambitions and bought only the ARPN oil palm plantation, they'll need N155bn. They currently have about N2bn cash (less cash burn from operations) and N30bn assets.

How do you imagine they'll raise N150bn in 5 weeks?

chimex38:
Despite the offer failure, Mr. Chuka still sounded more confident that they will close the APRN deal.
It looks like they will.
It's their lifeline for a quicker rebound.

Lol. I was criticized when I noted that Ellah is run by a banker, not an farmer. Farmers know that oil palm is not a get-rich-quick deal.

If they can't close the ARPN acquisition, as it looks likely they won't, let's review again in 4-5 years.

nosa2:
The company has a lot of value. The management just needs to shut up and focus on running their business. Too much financial engineering going on and not enough actual palm oil business

Cool. Can you describe a plausible path forward for Ellah as a business? If you were CEO, what would you do specifically to justify the current valuation, which assumes massive, near-term earnings growth?

Princkez:
Everyone is now claiming they sold ellahlakes before now to buy other stocks.. Me I still stand with ELLAHLAKES not selling a single unit, just the way we did with FBNH @#3+ see FBNH today.

Finally, Ellah's official announcement. Totally irresponsible that this leaked out before it was posted on the website.

https://ellahlakes.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/202602_Ellah-Lakes-Plc_Announcement-of-Public-Offer-Closure.pdf

Honestly, this outcome is a good thing for the market. It shows that you might be able to deceive retail investors with media buzz, but institutional investors are still investing with discipline.

So now an unattractive acquisition gets even more costly if Ellah raises debt to buy ARPN. Maybe Presco can now swoop in and steal?

LOL. You might not know my history. I'm the biggest Ellah bear there is. Where is the official announcement of the offer result?

vacanci:
This is the denial phase.

you will soon get to acceptance phase

Which dollar mutual funds, please?

debeey87:
In retrospect, one of the best decision I made last year was liquidating my usd holdings in money market to invest in the NGX after seeing the market momentum. The plan was just to beat mutual funds or money market rate which was higher than most dollar mutual funds. That goal has been exceeded not because I am a guru at timing the market. While I didn't invest in most of the stocks that had given over 300% considering their liquidity and fundamentals, Stocks like Nahco, Presco, PZ, WAPCO, MTNN, Aradel have delivered at least 80% - to over 100% all under 6-8months while I sleep peacefully at night

Mission accomplished. Next mission is to know when to sell and not continue shifting the goal post. Stocks like Presco and Nahco makes it difficult considering they have refused to considerably retraced but rather maintained their upward trajectory. So far, been a good year and one of the best seasons for my portfolio generally in over 10years in this business.

Kudos to everyone that selflessly contribute to this thread and sharing great perspective. You guys are the best.

What is this? I'm not a fan of Ellah but publicly listed companies don't announce material information like public offer results on an unverified website.

KarlTom:
"Ellah Lakes Plc announced today, February 20, 2026, that its ambitious ₦235 billion Public Offer failed to meet the minimum subscription threshold.

Despite a high-profile marketing campaign and a bullish stock market environment, the company will not allot any shares and will instead refund all applicants..."

While the failed offer is a setback, the commitment to transparency and the ongoing ARPN deal suggest that the “long-term transformation” story is still alive, albeit on a different funding timeline.

I'm not so sure "over-diversification" is the issue. The ultimate diversification is to own all the stocks in the market with the All-Share index weighting. If you do that, you'll match the index' performance.

ogawisdom:
When you over diversify you water down your returns. Nobody actually needs more than 5 quality growth stocks in their portfolio 1 from one sector.

It's funny to see investors kill their returns with crazy over diversification as they want to be in every stock.

Honestly, and I say this respectfully, given your questions, please try not to borrow any money. Not even against your stocks. Most people will lose money they borrow at such high rates. Just redeem your money market funds jeje.

Don't go chasing waterfalls
Please stick to the rivers and the lakes that you're used to

Abbasmh:
Thank you sir.

However, if I'm to borrow against my stocks, what is the best way to approach it, since ARM doesn't offer it

We learnt nothing from the Aso Savings episode, I see.

essentialone:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/46011_STACO_INSURANCE_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2019_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_FEBRUARY_2026.pdf

Staco Insurance Plc is now set to return to the Stock Market, with a brand new female Managing Director. Better days ahead?

The ideal customer for a stockbroker. And for us NGXGROUP shareholders. Trading fees raining like water.

chimex38:
He trades daily.
E.g 5m @3%= 150000
another 4m @ 5%=12000
Another 1m @ 9%= 90,000.
If you keep at this daily, you may also encounter losses or traps in some stocks on the index.
But net gain by month-end should far exceed the losses and brokerage fees if you are quite good at it like he does.

you could also leave your losses(traps) as paper loss until it breaks even or bull surfaces.(essentially making 100% gains).


Liquidity and right stocks picks is the issue in a bear market, but if you keep your quantities low and have knowledge of the stocks in question, you can reduce the rate you get trapped.(skill involved).

In a bull market as we have currently, liquidity isn't much an issue. One could even trade 10million luckily @8-10%=800k- 1million
(bullish and very liquid stocks).

I'm not so sure what you recommend -- selling to avoid regret -- is wise, although I appreciate it depends on one's investment goals and approach.

The feeling of regret you describe is called loss aversion. It's a powerful psychological motivator that the best investors resist. It nudges you to sell when you shouldn't, and freezes you from buying when you should be aggressive -- all because you're market gazing, i.e., obsessively watching short-term market signals.

In general, I only (rarely) sell when my investment case on a stock has broken down. I bought WAPCO in the 50s because Nigeria needs massive private and government investments in capital assets, because the industry is a price-gouging oligopoly with high competitive barriers, and because Lafarge was the most efficient of the cement makers. I'm willing to take a 50% retracement from the current price to see that thesis play out. I'm not selling until the reasons I bought it deteriorate, or the stock gets to N2,000.

NSEstudent:
...

The regret you feel when a stock you sold appreciates more, is nothing compared to watching your stocks lose millions of paper profits and run into paper losses. So it goes without saying that selling some units is advisable, pertinent even.

Give me expo abeg. Aside from MTNN. I have some from the mid-400s already.

Sunrisepebble:
Really? I think there is still value in some names

What are normal people still buying in this market? With everything seriously bid up so fast, I've run out of ideas.

Are you still in 100% cash?

Agbalowomeri:
So NGX never blow reach, all the way from 45k?

No vex. I didn't realize my tone was that sharp. You said NGXGROUP was being "pushed" (which sounded like manipulation, or at least aggressive marketing), so I asked who was doing the deed.

There might be another explanation: Investors positioning for higher market highs (which is good for the company) and near-term major earnings catalysts and buzz (2026 IPOs of Dangote Refinery and maybe Moniepoint).

awesomeJ:
Your phone doesn't have Google?

Did you seriously expect an explanation with this kind of tone?

You lack information and you feel this tone will somehow magically help you get it?

NAHCO is in a structurally favorable industry, but doesn't the company already pay like 90% of earnings as dividends?

ogawisdom:
Yes I am doing it already,

If rumour of bonus share becomes true then everyone should hold tight on their NAHCO, it's worth it plus expected dividend.

Imagine 1 for 10 bonus shares plus dividend

How so? And who is doing the pushing you allege?

awesomeJ:
By pushing NGXGROUP to N113, the average broker has gotten about N200m towards, their capitalization target.
If they push it to N200 they will get additional N500m each.

I know. I'm just giving more context to your MTNN bullishness. The real question is, Would you still be as bullish if your average price were 535? Or 600+, where it currently trades?

Sunrisepebble:
I was not giving an investment advice. And I tend to add NFA/DYOR on my posts

Didn't you previously buy MTNN in the 160s as well? If so, your average price is probably much lower than 530-ish. Just so other people don't follow you blindly...

Sunrisepebble:
I’ve posted the list and my target prices for the stocks. I’m sure there are other ones but someone will have to point them out to me so I can do my research.

I own Vitafoam, Wapco MTN, Seplat, Zenith, GT and Transcorp at good average prices. I think MTNN is my surest conviction for this year, I bought quite a lot at 535. I think they can do 70+ EPS this year and pay out 50+

What exactly is very good about it?

unite4real:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45966_ARADEL_HOLDINGS_PLC-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_FEBRUARY_2026.pdf

Very good

You're looking backwards. Yes, insurance companies made significant investment income in recent years because interest rates have been high and most of their financial assets are rate-sensitive. Looking forward, as rates decline, they have to show premium growth. Mansard is doing that.

Hungry people are buying data and cement and mattresses. Dem go buy insurance too.

Agbalowomeri:
They collect premium to do what?.Go check all insurance coy earning statement. Their major earnings is now from investment. The sector is still a long way. Na people wey never chop go insure?

Maka why? Who in their right mind values a Nigerian insurance carrier today on profits or investment income?

With the ongoing industry reforms, core insurance revenue is where the focus should be: The sector is prepping for rapid growth through premium expansion, even at a cost to profitability. Insurance revenue is up 22% YoY -- smaller by comparison to AIICO's 27% growth, though higher in absolute terms.

Insurance expenses -- essentially, claims payments -- did go up, but in a way that is a good thing in the short term, as it signals seriousness with claims resolution and helps Mansard build its brand image in the market.

Agbalowomeri:
This one should return to N5

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45936_AXA_MANSARD_INSURANCE_PLC-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2026.pdf

To be fair, even raising half of the ~N250 bn would be a remarkable feat of marketing genius for Ellah.

emmanuelewumi:
I am not sure Ellah Lakes got half of the fund needed in the last public offer

Check the prospectus o. RMB are no fools. Most offers are "not underwritten at the request of the issuer." Ellah's own is just "not underwritten."

presiade:
If RMB is the underwriter, then RMB provides the guarantee of full subscription and must cover any unsubscribed portion of the offer. Underwritter simply means "guarantee" for such an arrangement.

There is none righteous, no, not one...

awesomeJ:
Beautiful thesis, but it's wrong.

Multiple monikers without disclosures borders on deceit, I do not lie -online or elsewhere.

Na today? The list is very long of similar stocks. When I see such ridiculous mispricing, I begin to sell my weakest stocks and park my money in fixed income.

faoogoke:
Nothing financially fundamental to warrant the high prices. NGX is a strange market.

I thought your conviction was valuation-based. You've been right so far. Stick to it na.

And promote Access while you're at it, as that stock is also Pan-African and "cheap."

nosa2:
I react to the news (as I see it). Let me show you the article that made me sell

https://gomezconsult.com/ecobank-in-race-against-time-as-non-performing-loans-set-to-exceed-70/

One thing I will tell you for free is that insiders know more than we do. So when I read that article I sold first and asked questions later. When I saw that the price was not tanking I bought back with the belief that they must have a grip on their issues.

If you follow the Ecobank thread on my blog you will see a more robust discussion

Plus at the end of the day my loyalty is to my money. I don't hold a lot of stocks but the few stocks I hold I watch like a hawk. I try my best to hold the cheapest stocks based on my valuations

Ol' boy no disrespect, but see how you've flipped and flopped on Ecobank in less than 6 months like fish out of water:

Aug 6: "Entered ETI at about N36. Given the book value of the stock I think its ridiculously cheap."
Sep 19: "I read this article yesterday and bailed out of ETI today at N35, took a hit of like 15%."
Oct 28: "This stock is cheap oh!!! The negative retained earnings is really holding it back..."
Dec 30: "I started buying yesterday and finished buying today. Average buying price N42.52..."
Today: "ETI has touched N50. I wont advise anyone to sell... Ecobank is a play on the Ghanaian Economy." "This game is so easy it should be illegal. I really feel sorry for people that keep buying/selling without doing valuations."

nosa2:
Hehe!!

This game is so easy it should be illegal. I really feel sorry for people that keep buying/selling without doing valuations.

Anyway..... Posted about Ecobank on my blog

https://ngxforum.com/thread/4/ecobank-transnational-incorporated-eti?page=4&scrollTo=487

They should just follow the Ellah playbook and declare N1 trillion public offer and the stock will go up 10x!

Because, Naija.

Erniemax101:
Honestly I don't know much about the coy, just know it made a revenue of ₦289 million in 2024 as compared to ELLAHLAKES ₦67.1 million 2025. Would love to learn more and not blindly jump into it.

quote author=SonofElElyonRet post=138181831]

Was there a stock split after last dividend? That would make the 5k irrelevant for purposes of analysis.. not sure there was stock split

We watch the same video so? 80% of raw materials are imported. Meaning exposure to FX, high finance costs, continuous need for short-term financing, or dilutive capital raise. The import duty waiver is temporary (2 years), and only reduces costs by ~10%.

chimex38:
From the video, NAFDAC isn't renewing importing licences for some products. They are forcing local production.

Due to being in health category, it has import duty waivers on some raw material imports so it's seems cheaper than before.

Also, being manufacturing as well as health related, They are qualified to also receive VAT cash-back from Govt on raw materials sourced locally or use it to offset other tax liabilities.

Although healthcare is heavily under-invested in Nigeria, I just don't see the investment case. What am I missing here? Unless you have unique market access, distribution advantages, or brand power, local manufacturing is usually a losing proposition.

What advantage does MeCure bring to pharma? Most of their active pharmaceutical ingredients -- the largest component of cost of production -- are imported because we don't have local chemical manufacturing capacity. Drugs are lightweight and inexpensive to import. People instinctly view imported brands as having superior quality.

Manufacturers like Larfarge and Presco make it work because their inputs are locally sourced and imports are banned or restricted. Nestle and Nigerian Breweries spend an arm and a leg on brand promotion, and are increasingly backward integrated.

jckgroup1:
You will do well to see this YouTube video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iizpK8rRSw&pp=0gcJCU8KAYcqIYzv

Mercure is the largest local drug manufacturer in the country.

Happy weekend Nsepaites!