₦airaland Forum

Ah, that's more interesting, thanks. Metering must still be too small in terms of revenues that it doesn't show up on the financial report. Maybe something to watch over the next few quarters.

debeey87:
They're are in the prepaid meter business as well

I'm just wondering what you're seeing in the company to bet on it long term. The business seems undifferentiated, and their fortunes are tied to the whims of a handful of customers. If MTN wakes up and vexes...

yMcy56:
If you can't figure out the figurative expression in the post, you can as well ignore the ranting dear brother 😊

How is this the next NAHCO, please?

Per CWG's report:
--
Principal activities
The group and the Company is principally engaged in the supply, installation, integration, maintenance and support of computer equipment, e-payment hardware and ancillary equipment.

Customer concentration (my analysis)
50% of revenue comes from just 3 companies -- MTN, FBN, UBA -- with 35% coming from just MTN.

yMcy56:
CWG FYE 2025
Proposed Dividend: 0.70k
Proposed bonus: ?

* This is a promising Company....
* A long termer who values growth, consistency and gradual price appreciation ought to have it in his/her portfolio
* We are looking at another junior NAHCO in this stock, acceleration may not be rapid like Nahco's but gradually....😊

** And, this is not any buy/sell advert.....after all, we've been on this stock since below N1, no be you move am up to this level.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/46316_CWG_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2026.pdf

Presco deleveraged? They still owe me 23% p.a. till 2031 o.

What leverage metric are you looking at?

emmanuelewumi:
We also forgot that Presco had debt of over N160 billion in 2025, finance expenses in 2025 was N43 billion.

The business is now deleveraged, the plantation is now bigger.

Even if price of their products fail, I still expect a minimum growth of 25% in their earnings when compared with Q1 2025

Some recent analysis of the oil palm market pricing and profitability trends.

https://youtu.be/BcSLAadVPto?si=NFbO5YAMsn3cGH96

This woman tracks retail price trends in a fun way:

https://www.tiktok.com/@dynoilfoods/video/7578792665014095125

(Because I hate senseless hoarding of information.)

crownprince2017:
But I can't find 2025 and 2026 data

Are palm oil prices a national secret?

https://nifor.org/economics-industry

crownprince2017:
Get the prices from major palm oil markets in Nigeria, they will tell you.

I wouldn't tell you the comparable prices for personal reasons but I can tell you a market from where producers sell it in Southwest, you can then find out the prices yourself.

What were the comparable prices last year, please?

crownprince2017:
...I don't even want to talking about crude oil price effect.

Let me give you what is playing out locally, for Jan to February the price was 40-45k

In March the price ranges between 35-40k

Compare the price to the same period last year yourself.

Note: Feb -march is the pick harvest period for palm in Nigeria.

Futures, options and other derivatives -- financial instruments whose value is "derived" from the performance of an underlying asset or index -- are actually rather commonplace offerings of most mature financial markets.

If anything, their adoption by the NGX has been rather slow and they're proceeding very gingerly by restricting futures trading to the most stable of indices out there: the NGX30 and NGXPENSION, which represent the blue-chip, large-cap stocks (the DANGs, BUAs, MTNN, NESTLE, PRESCO, etc.)

Instead of thinking about futures only as gambling, think of them as allowing better capital efficiency through leverage (you can own more than your cash allows) or risk hedging (you can cap losses on your stocks).

However you see them, if derivatives trading truly takes off, the true winner here, as in most "gambling," is the house: NGXGROUP.

Krisuba:
So they are gradually turning this to gambling. Chai.!! Broad day gambling!!

This is beginning to sound like Loco.

Run, run, run.

megawealth01:
100% of my stock picks delivered without NOISE

The only PICK I have kept shouting this 2026 is REBRANDED UNITY BANK when they list...

I don't money hunt... I drop hints and allow Mr Time and market do the NOISE

I was called all manner of names but I kept my cool intact...

Only the wise that allows GOD fight for them win in this life

Even Wema is closing in on Access' market cap sha. Crazy.

megawealth01:
24 Nigerian companies are now worth over N1 trillion on the stock market (2025)

1. Airtel Africa Plc: N23.60trn
2. MTN Nigeria Communications Plc: N16.31trn
3. BUA Foods Plc: N14.36trn
4. Dangote Cement Plc: N13.57trn
5. BUA Cement Plc: N8.37trn
6. Aradel Holdings Plc: N5.82trn
7. Seplat Energy Plc: N5.07trn
8. Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc: N4.29trn
9. Zenith Bank Plc: N3.83trn
10. Lafarge Africa Plc: N3.29trn
11. Geregu Power Plc: N2.85trn
12. Nestlé Nigeria Plc: N2.58trn
13. International Breweries Plc: N2.52trn
14. Presco Plc: N2.43trn
15. Nigerian Breweries Plc: N2.42trn
16. Transcorp Power Plc: N2.30trn
17. First HoldCo Plc: N2.22trn
18. Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc: N2.08trn
19. Transcorp Hotels Plc: N2.08trn
20. United Bank for Africa Plc: N2.03trn
21. Okomu Oil Palm Company Plc: N1.68trn
22. Access Holdings Plc: N1.29trn
23. Ecobank Transnational Incorporated: N1.09trn
24. Wema Bank Plc: N1.03trn

Firstholdco might need that buffer. See bolded below.

--
March 8, 2026
CBN orders banks to conduct stress test from April
By Babajide Komolafe

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed banks to conduct a comprehensive stress test on their credit portfolios beginning from April 1, 2026, as part of measures to ensure the continued stability of the nation’s banking system.

... In terms of methodology, the apex bank directed banks to apply the stress test to all credit exposures, both on-balance sheet and off-balance sheet, including director and insider-related exposures...

yMcy56:
* Quite a lot of activities in the banking sector....
- Billions flowing into the sector....
- Recapitalisation deadline is drawing very close
- In two weeks time actually...

** Otedola and his friends are pumping serious funds into FBNH despite that the bank already meet the minimum requirement of N500bn and even surpassed it...
** FBNH is currently leading banking sector in the total Capital base year to date....
** Whosoever is after Capital appreciation (and won't look at dividend payout for now) should keep closer attention to movements here.....IMO.

GTCO: N2.6bn+ so far..
ZENITH: N4bn+
FBNH: N3bn+

No abeg. For one, it's too frequent and too long. Let us breathe. For another, he's usually pushing stocks of companies with weak competitive positions, low trading liquidity, and high volatility. I'm willing to bet that most people who follow him blindly will lose money on average.

Retnaija:
@stockpromoter
Don't stop sharing your insurance index analysis. It's beneficial for someone like me who desires to know more.
I read everything you post here. Your track record speaks for you. Same for Megawealth and others.

NGXGROUP at N166

Abeg, what is it that people are seeing in this VFD that I'm missing? I get that they have slick marketing, but where are you seeing repeatable, profitable growth?

Every time I ask, all I get back is big-vision English.

handsomebolanle:
It’s going through a lot. I will accumulate more once I get funds.

When do you think the RI will be credited?

Thanks. Any discussion of the potential impact of the rise in oil price on profitability of cement manufacturing?

Sunrisepebble:
Key highlights from Lafarge Africa confernce call

* Planned CAPEX spend for the 4.5mtpa extension of current facilities to cost $250 million
* Planned timeline for completion is 12 months, to be commissioned by December 2026
* To be financed by internal cash flows
* Also, basically confirmed that planned expansion will not affect their drive for returning value to shareholders (Dividends)
* Hinted at possibly more expansion after this current one. State that Huaxin views Nigeria as one of its most important markets outside China and is committed to the long-term. Also hinted that export is an avenue they could explore after expansion
* The expansion will not affect their debottlenecking initiatives, at least in the meantime, as they work towards unlocking more value at current capacity. State capacity utilisation rate at 66%
* Cost optimisation and sustainability initiatives are gaining traction and are already helping the company. Alternative fuel substitution rate at 15%, 500 CNG trucks commissioned. Partnered with LAWMA to convert solid waste to alternative energy at some of their current plants. Although key material inputs, such as gypsum and spare parts, which are imported, remain elevated and face potential supply disruption, their own cost optimisation initiatives will be key to maintaining strong margins amid stable prices
* Innovative product offerings were key to volume accretion. Ecocrete and EcoPlanet cement, which use less carbon in production and were introduced in the past year, accounted for 27% of total sales.

Time for another round of recapitalization. This time, the minimum should be ~$500 mn (N700 bn). Those who can't meet up should merge or exit. We don't need more than 10-15 strong banks.

Fair, but you get where I was going even if my examples were imperfect. Is conglomeration good for investors?

freeman67:
Ucap and Stanbic are also conglomerates. United Capital as a financial and investment group consists of; the Assets Management and Wealth Management Arm, Microfinance Bank, Stock Broking Arm, Investment Banking Arm and the Trustee Arm.

While Stanbic IBTC Holdings as listed also consists of the Commercial Banking Arm, the stock trading Arm, the Pension Funds Administration Arm, the Trustee Arm, the Insurance and Assurance Arm and the Stock Broking Arm.

So both are not different from custodian.

Just wondering: Is that a good thing?

Ordinarily, conglomerates are punished with a discount to the fair value of the individual elements in the composite. A Jack of all trades, investors reckon, is typically a master of none.

Besides, if an investor wanted exposure to the various elements, s/he can just go to the market and buy some "pure plays": UCAP (stockbroking) + STANBIC (asset management) + NEM (insurance), UPDC REIT, etc.

emmanuelewumi:
It is not an insurance company. Custodian is a financial supermarket. They have a stockbroking firm, an asset management firm, insurance company, property development company and a REIT.

Abi? If you're going to invest in insurance, a structurally fragmented industry where it's hard to see a durable source of competitive advantage, invest in the current cream of the crop.

lavylilly:
AIICO
NEM
AXA

Probably paid media -- the sycophancy is so off the charts it's laughable -- but interesting read on Ellah and its next steps:

https://punchng.com/ellah-lakes-public-offer-arpn-deal-and-lessons-learnt/

This strange obsession with dividends, eh?

When a company that should be investing in growth (like Ellah) or deleveraging (like Oando, Dangsug) starts talking about dividends, we should be asking management whether their head correct and selling the stock.

megawealth01:
This wan MAY send OANDO to 137+ ooooo if true.

CHAI. Seems Wale trying to give us Tony vibes in recent times?

Is this a joke? DANGSUG's finance charges are nearly N50 billion more than their gross profit -- nearly double their operating profit -- and you want them to pay dividend?

ogoo4real:
So no dividend/bonuses from this one

You're assuming that NAHCO and NGXGROUP are similar to CHAMS and TANTALIZER? I doubt it: The first two companies are effectively monopolies; the latter duo are price-takers.

Of course one can make money on well-timed entry into any stock, but if you want to sleep well at night, bet most of your money on structural winners.

orriyomi33:
This is what I have in mind as well, took profit from PZ @100+% to acquire more of TANTALIZER and CHAMS. Having looked at the trajectory of NAHCO and NGXGROUP with their massive capital appreciation and dividend pay outs.

Very easy: Buy the structural winners, then do nothing. Except buying more when there's a big pullback.

If you're bored, come here and debate with people who think they're smarter than the principle of compounding and can predict the future like Nostradamus.

Ginalex:
The long term holding thing isn't easy sha. People who hold for years, how do y'all do it? 😩

Although, to be fair, some of Ellah's assets have suddenly vanished. Remember the piggery that was supposed to be a big hit?

Poof!

ositadima1:
The over 22,000 hectares in Ellah’s possession, is it all just bush? Even if they cultivated cassava on only half of it, they should be able to pay a dividend. Or do you think the land is lying completely fallow? What do you think they’ve been doing with the huge expenses they’ve recorded, are they just partying with the money?

So if you can’t account for any of that, what makes you think you have the insight to question the source of the dividends?

It might surprise you that I have a secret admiration for Chuka Mordi and Ellah despite my bearish view on the stock. It's not personal; the company is not yet ready for prime time.

And because of that, they're making suboptimal decisions: ARPN is a lot to swallow. The offer was too big and too rich. And now they're being rushed to pay a dividend, when they should be investing in growth?

They should calm down and prepare for the marathon. Presco was not built in a day.

megawealth01:
Must you call out ELLAH 😂

megawealth01:
He said WE INTEND paying dividends in 12 months not we will be paying...

Let's understand the difference ooooo

Ellah's Mordi selling his market:

https://youtu.be/BETYeIEZcBo?si=zTrLQIzJZ9JtF1aR

Mbok, what manipulations are you seeing?

Large caps likely rallied because of the liberalization of pension-fund equity allocation by Pencom. That meant that pension fund administrators (PFAs) could reduce their large fixed-income holdings and shift the funds to NGX-listed stocks in search of better returns. Analysts estimate that would mean as much as N1.5 trillion in new money in the NGX.

And PFAs mostly invest in large caps for liquidity and other reasons. They don't gamble invest our retirement money in the likes of Ellah.

yMcy56:
I mentioned price manipulations in those Big Cap stocks but some people were quick to use fundamentals as excuse.....
They were manipulating them but pinning faults on small stocks...
Now, some sanity is coming to the big ogas..

Meanwhile, I've mentioned CHAMPION BREWERIES here quite sometimes.....
The stock is now looking up.....
Make I no too talk anyway 😁

Btw, I think what we are experiencing is result panic or fear of dividend declarations, once it's positive, market will stabilize....

** I'm with my Oga CP on DANGSUGAR...
We are waiting for result....😁
** For FBNH, we are for price appreciation, we no dey expect any big dividend

** From observation, Bull is somehow fighting back even amidst the profit taking...

Aren't most large-cap stocks taking a breather after the massive run over the last month?

Take the (very) long view on WAPCO: It's the gazelle of an economically vital, structurally favourable sector.

deathwing:
WAPCO trading around 190 now. What are people scared of? Manipulation or correction?

No vex. I'm not as smart as you. So you're assuming they give up on the ARPN acquisition and just grow organically?

ositadima1:
I thought you had a solid understanding of financials. Take a look at their financial statements and see for yourself that they have the resources to execute, if they stay focused.

Don’t just focus on the cash they’re burning. Also examine the assets and resources they have available. As I’ve said before, and consistently maintained, if they are genuinely working toward a win, they absolutely have the capacity to achieve it with what they currently possess.

Burning cash with limited revenue isn’t necessarily a bad sign for a growth company, provided there is a clear and credible plan. Many successful growth companies have gone through far worse before stabilizing. I can name a few examples if you’d like.

Agreed: Ignore the bile (and the blind faith). What possible paths to winning do you see for Ellah, please?

ositadima1:
The way some people think genuinely surprises me. With all the bashing of Ellah, some were saying it would drop to ₦3 or even ₦1, haba. A few comments were clearly coming from a place of hate and bile, without any attempt to hide it. Statements like “Ellah Lake holders will be executed”, lol , are completely unnecessary....

For the record, I don’t own a single share of Ellah. I just don’t see it as a bad bet yet. They still have possible paths to win.

Thanks for reading.