₦airaland Forum

isaacosas01:
We are in the “last to sell na Mumu” territory!

Everyone is selling!

There is real actual fear in the market, especially as fundamental stocks like MTN, WAPCO are dumping.

Retail investors who just joined the market in the last 1 year are literally running as they see their money burn. HNI and institution are reallocating their portfolio.

My advise if you haven’t sold, it might be too late but then maybe we can go another 20% down and u would be a grateful u sold now.

NGX is raining blood, take shelter!

Oasisblue:
This is my biggest lesson on the NGX this year- my 3rd year of active investment. Going forward, I will act more like a trader than a longterm investor. It is too painful seeing your gains eroded daily.

Oasisblue:
The minister has called for a slashing of cement price.

Oasisblue:
Peter Obi is actually the most clueless among the array of leading candidates.

It is shocking to me that a region of Nigeria that has produced globally acclaimed intellectuals have no netter person than Obi to fly their flag. How anyone can listen to Obi speak and conclude this is the man I want for President baffles me.

Shalom428:
This is starting to look like an obsession. While this forum may act as a leveler, each of us plays in different leagues. Even if I chose never to touch NGX again, my passive income alone is more than enough to secure the kind of life many only dream of. Some of us simply brag differently—even when we choose modesty.

If you’re already losing sleep at this stage, what will you do when the real bear shows up? If you’re not a boy, you wouldn’t be so triggered by my statement. Yet you keep quoting it and returning to it every time. I’m convinced you’ve been repeating it in your dreams since I posted it. You need healing, BOY

Shalom428:
Companies with strong Q2 results should enjoy some respite in July and August. That window may provide an opportunity for those wishing to bail out, because afterwards, it will be ‘to your tents, O Israel

Shalom

Sunrisepebble:
Dividend payments will be much higher than historically and more frequently ie interims in Q2 or Q3 and a final. I’ve looked at Huaxin’s net profit for FY25. Nigeria is their biggest market on a consolidated basis, accounting for what looks like 45%. They are going to extract as much as they can back to Holdco, which is positive for minority shareholders. I am working with a 70-75% payout ratio.

Q1 volumes were 1.8mt. And their effective capacity is 9.5mta. On an annualized basis that comes to 75% capacity utilization. Spoken to management, they are growing capacity by 7-8% per annum. They did 66% utilization last year. Revenue per ton in Q1 was 186k and from what I’m hearing is now 200k due to increases effect of some energy related input cost, war related.

Now with new capacity of 4.5mt coming on stream next year. I have assumed 75% utilization for the plants but only from Q2 onwards. 75%(utlization)*75%(9 months)*4.5=2.5mta.

Assuming capacity utilization of old capacity (9.5mtw) grows 5% to 80%. That is now 7.6mta. And a total of 7.6+2.5=10.1mta sold.
10,100*210,000 (5% increase y/y in revenue per ton which is conservative, as cement prices have been as high as $180 per ton in USD terms, currently $145). We could potentially see 10,100*210,000=N2,100,000,000+ in revenue.
Applying 35% net margin up from their Q1 margin of 30%. I am getting an EPS of N46. The stock will re-rate to a 15-20x. That gives my N700 figure. I think the EPS is conservative I have something like N50+.
Could be wrong. NFA/DYOR

Sunrisepebble:
RE the bolded: I have just run my numbers for Wapco based on info available to me. My end of next year target N700, which might even be conservative
NFA/DYOR

Oasisblue:
If oil prices remained elevated during the Iran-related disruptions and production stayed strong, then I would expect a Q2 result showing revenue above ₦700bn again,PAT materially above Q1, and EPS possibly exceeding ₦18–20 for the quarter. If Aradel delivers that, annualized EPS could move toward ₦60–80/share, which would make the current valuation look very attractive, even for new entrants BUT, of course, this Q1 result still does not yet fully demonstrate the earnings power many investors expected from the ND Western acquisition.

yMcy56:
...You mentioned about Oil price, how low do you think it can go to affect the bottom line and profitability when these guys are Upstream players?

As earlier said, let's watch has events unfolds...
If not for the bearish situation of the market, the price ought to rally and balance at circa 2k or above...🥹

megawealth01:
In my observation and primary concern is the issue of higher debt and the resulting finance costs, but the company's strong cash generation and profitability currently appear sufficient to support these obligations.

But like I said earlier Investors should monitor debt levels, cash flow, and production performance in the coming quarters to ensure the strong results remain sustainable.

yMcy56:
ARADEL shouldn't be trading below 2k when this result is factored in.....
My own guguru calculations placed ARADEL's value at 1703 without factoring in the Q1...

Remember, na guguru analysis o.....shortcut calculations 😁

Btw, how has result not yet seen been factored in ?

yMcy56:
ARADEL Q1 2026

** This result looks fantastic

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/47228_ARADEL_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2026_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JUNE_2026.pdf

*CORPORATE ACTION*
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/47220_ARADEL_HOLDINGS_PLC-CORPORATE_ACTION_ANNOUNCEMENT___CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JUNE_2026.pdf

Shalom428:
We are all thieves, na person wey get caught be Barawo. If I'm privileged to insider info, I will gladly embrace it and use it to guide my investment decision. All is fair in investing. I love silent whispers.

deathwing:
But these were not the prices at the end of the FY

Shalom428:
My eyes first blur when I saw my portfolio balance, 8 digits wiped out ... How come? I used water washed my face so I could see clearly, na so I see say, na DangCem be the culprit.... Make I go back to sleep.

Follow the Money

ogawisdom:
One of the most important skills in life is how to take calculated risks.

You may never be Rich let alone wealthy if you always avoid risks. Learn to manage risk.

Tony is richer today because he took calculated risk.

Fortune favour the investor that is super skilled in risk management.

Alyssax0:
the primary difference lies in the ecosystem and added features each platform provides. While the official NGX Invest platform provides a direct, streamlined gateway for public offers and rights issues from the exchange itself, third-party tools like Sabivest offer an aggregated experience. Investors often choose third-party tools because they integrate broader wealth management features, such as automated savings, mutual funds, and personalized financial advisory tools that the core exchange platform doesn't offer.

Shalom428:
I no dey even bother to shalaye anymore. Make anyone use the information as dem like. Those who understand game theory will recognize the angle I’m coming from — it’s all about separating the boys from the men.

Shalom428:
None taken

megawealth01:
Na him opinion na

Shalom428:
Weak hands are being shaken out. The boys are selling, while the men hold firm or buy. The next bull run will belong to the men — this is the moment that separates the boys from the men.

Follow The Money.

Bovis:
You’re fond of peddling dishonest narratives and derailing this thread

What is Obi’s track record as governor for 8 years in Anambra? I will advise you to support/Vote for your choice candidate in peace and allow others to be, democracy is based on individual choices

nosa2:
You can send it to me. I promise to use it for something interesting and give you a story that will make you laugh

mjblinks:
Curious to know too 👀

Because leaving spare cash in a brokerage account in Nigeria sometimes feels like keeping bread beside hungry ants 😭

Some people:

- Leave it there untouched waiting for the next buy
- Move it to money market funds for small interest
- Use it to buy stable dividend stocks gradually
- Keep averaging down on existing investments
- Convert part to dollars to avoid Naira drama 🇳🇬
- Or accidentally “borrow” it for shawarma and data… then promise to return it before market opens 😂

Meanwhile inflation is in one corner doing press up.

What about you? Do you keep idle cash ready for opportunities or make the money work while waiting?

GeneralDae:
Airtel Africa’s revenue in 2025

• Nigeria 🇳🇬 - $1.0b

• East Africa (Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda,Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia) - $1.8b

• Francophone Africa (DRC, Chad, Gabon, Madagascar, Niger, Republic of Congo, Seychelles) - $1.3b

Nigeria is a continental region in her own right.