₦airaland Forum

I spotted one giant bear on its way to the exchange to open the gate tomorrow...
The bear is looking very huge as if it swallowed a very big bull..

Agbalowomeri:
Positive divergence lol

Neutral divergence is on the way....

Mcy56:
LMAO
BBM's turn to be stoned

My dear, People like BBM are the ones holding the market back...
Instead of buying, they keep talking of Value zone, RSI, Divergence, Keltner Channel etc etc.
Their studied patience is very risky to this market....
These guys have hearts the size of elephants and the patience of a crcodile...
They better leave us here and take up jobs as snippers with the Italian Mafia....

BBM, una charts don do us strong thing.
Next time, I will learn to interprete myself before your charts.

wanaj0:
But na true now.

Lesson number 1, NOBODY can time the market!

Lesson Number 2, LEARN to control your emotions.

Really, nothing has changed so not sure why the reason for the panic.

If you have CASH, get ready to make money.

If you have good stocks, enjoy the bumpy ride.

If you have stocks like Onwuka Hi-Tek, just convert them to a souvenir

Sir,
Everything has changed.
- Some are now more loyal to their employers than they were in February....
- We now have a new set of BEARISH GURUS who timed the market.
- Some now hate holidays and are wondering why this country has too many of them ( I know you grab my drift)...
- Some now pick offences at little wrongs at home and their spouses have to repeat the same message thrice, yet they can't still repeat what was said....
- I was even trading today after the market closed, only to be woken up by my kids....
- In have kept checking my account, just checked again, since market closed to be sure I did not log into a wrong account, as the losses refuse to blink...

RabbiDoracle:
It was Oracle in Jan - Feb, now it is Chibuking.

Once people speak their mind, you come out to caution.

Bros na stocks he dey talk ooo...not immoral things ooo.

All the Candles have melted leaving the Japanese sticks....
I warned the Japanese guys against buying their wax from China to make these Candlesticks...
Better to talk, it was talking that saved him from the DIAMONIC TRAP....
He is only trying to assemble the scattered candlesticks Fxuser abandoned in his shrine....

onegentleguy:

Maybe u should think of establishing some comic stuff for urself man !!
...u have something of a comedian attribute in u.

Cheers my dear.

#couldn'tstoplaughing.

Lol...
Market don deal with me...
Even the cloud in Ichimoku system has become a huge cloud of tear gas....

leo1234:
Mr. Time will tell.


Maybe RabbiDoracle has something to say.

Maybe the helicopters mistakenly picked Peter from Escravos....

mendes911:
Which experience oooo? My portfolio was intact then (from loses) and still intact. Like I said then, words don't get to me provided it's not a physical attack on my portfolio, am good for all stones.

I gradually picked up some of those "illiquid" stocks today. I was surprised at how liquid they could turn. Bear good oooo.

Waiting for the big pay day, MM go soon act on those JIJO stocks and I will pounce right after them.

Name them one by one, else any illiquid stock available may be picked by undecerning fellows....??

Loco, see una Caverton flight don crash.
The 11 new Helicopters have failed ALL their engines mid flight....
Even Morgan avoided to market this one.
Passengers are waiting for 80K ticket...

Agbalowomeri:
It may still go below but not now; I expect a rebound from 38ish to 42

If foreign investors are the ones selling, it means they are also trapped currently...
The only way for them now is to pause selling and fake a rally coz looking at the volume, they are in for a long thing...

Yayira:
You are lucky.. this bear caught so many unaware imagine laughing at some of us that was trapped since January only to come for May/June Bull and got bear bear.. na laugh I just dey laugh..
Welcome on board y’all.



CP don run God save you

CP is trapped in cash....
Trap na trap...

CILEASING looking good again....

Bears have found a new and conducive breeding spot, NSE.....
They are even delivering triplets here....

Parisfran:
I dey o. Any better?

Hmm. If you are asking for better, as a bad, from Agba, I am scared!
I dey flash my backlight too..

currentprice:
look like the current bearish candle is the longest one follow the one of Nov. 2011.

sugar will still go down

To where?
I should buy you one unit of Japaul before you will talk?

RabbiDoracle:
https://abokifx.com/news/ndic-warns-of-looming-bank-failure-punch

Which bank is this?

f

DIAMOND...
Dozie bursted....

Agbalowomeri:
But all these ones never fall na, except fidelity

I am expecting them to be members of OPERATION BEAR DANCE coming up soon...

With Japanese candlesticks turning to Nigerian broomsticks, I wish to seek genuine fundamental answers for fairprice of some equities so that I can pick them after another Hiroshima outage.
I have to prepare for the loading opportunities.
Which stocks do we feel are abysmally and unduly punished and may still surprise the market?

1. Sugar.
2. Nascon.
3. UBA.
4. Dangcem
5. CAVERTON
7. FMN.
8. ZENITH
9. FIDELITY.
10. UCAP
11. Afriprud.
12. GTB.

Thanks in advance.

locodemy:
Who go help you decode your monkey hunting?
Na me go come help defend when my zenith need serious defence now.

Remember people entered that Zenith below N10.00.....
They can even sell at N13 and still make money.

Note: I am more comfortable with Zenith @ N19.00.

Chibuking81:
What I posted since morning, you are just seeing it now, hope you are not been trap by Mr bear?

Or are you one of their agent?

Some are trapping themselves daily....
There are some kind of stocks that it is only in times like this that they can get their desired volume for long term....

currentprice:
according to the chart above, it look like mkt is close to the bottom

cc fxuser

Which bottom?
Are these charts not as a result of our COMPLETED actions?
Next week prices:

Upon all this mess, I am buying one particular stock everyday.
I am solely responsible for its southern Journey, else it would have been forming defensive stock....


CC: CP....
BC: Onegentleguy...

Any day a reversal occurs on NSE few people will actually admit they missed the bottom.
Self deception is one true roadblock to success.
I was indeed impressed when Fxuser came out boldly to say he picked some smoke on his clothes, even though he is not fully out of the fire zone and may still possibly step on a burning hot piece of charcoal ...
I have received a special haircut, that type that modern barber's shop can't render.
The hair cut that is only received under a leafy plant shade using TIGER RAZOR and a mixture of water and soap...

After a careful review, I have noticed that my rule book would have kept me away from 90% of my losses.
HOPE is your enemy.
I also noticed that I have not been a good risk manager, but consistently complain about NPL when it comes to banks...
My NPL to NSE was so HIGH....
I will try to manage expectations and not think about making very high profits as a top agenda, but capital preservation followed by steady growth of capital, which eventually will make future little growths run into $$$....

yok:
MSCI ADDITION FOR 23 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Fund’s portfolio decrease, selling continued. The market is still down, even if the price starts going up, more buyers still need to come to the market.

This week has been bad for my portfolio. Next week must not be like this. I am seriously considering a strategy that will ensure that I exit the market before a bear like this comes to the market again.

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

Hope MSCI is not remotely indicted.....

rationalmind:
Do you also pity those who followed your mouth when you said wapco was heading to 3 euros

He gave no timeframe.....

PETERiCHY:
So Dangflour fair value is no longer N25 as you projected

Likewise now that your grossly undervalued Cileasing is heading back to 57kobo you want to jump ship

Well I ONLY pity those that follow your mouth.

Price projections have expiration dates...
There was a time FBNH was projected to reach N100 when it overshot N69 ....
Today, FBNH is dinning comfortably with Access and clearing the table....

Chibuking81:
It has been a long time I see our brother Ihedioramma post, I hope all is well?

He must be the one swapping bears...?

BullBearMkt:
...it will still make more people richer if we can be patient

So this HBP your boys don already catch no do you, you wan carry STROKE join?
We are watching you....
Are you administering patience in tablets or syrup form?
Oga, take am easy oooo...

Chibuking81:
If this current bear continue like this reach next week, that mean it will hand over to primary election bear, before handing over to the main election bear.

This bear has nothing at stake....
The bear wear bear bear.....

Chibuking81:
Dangote sugar will still come back #10

I am waiting @ N7.89....

currentprice:
you are right on the bold but go and check the post, the opinion was share based on Audited result before Q1

if someone saw the Q1 and still keeping the stock, the holder must be a long timer

Fair price on Q1 = ?

Mine = N3.75

kolaish:
for the caverton hopefuls:
cc: onegentleguy

If you are told to draw up a list of the top 5 performing stocks in Nigeria this year, my bet is that Caverton will be high up on that list. In fact, asides from CCNN, Caverton has posted the best return year to date this year, boasting of a 100% capital appreciation. Move your start point to a year ago, then the returns are even better at a whopping 187% capital appreciation.

Things haven’t always been this good for Caverton. Four years ago this week, Caverton listed on the Nigerian stock exchange at a share price of N9.5. However, by the close of trading time on that fateful Tuesday the 20th of May, 2014, the share price had plummeted by a whopping 18% to close at N7.76. I remember calling this a baptism of fire for a stock that had so many prospects.

The stock was to face its lowest point two years ago after the company reported profits of N604 million, a 5-year low at the time. The fact that the market was in the midst of one of the greatest economic induced sell-off in history worsened matters. Its share price also nosedived, dropping to as low as 69 kobo per share in January 2017. This would be the lowest share price for Caverton’s 4-year history on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Rise to the top

In 2017, Caverton reported a profit after tax of N2.5 billion, a 330% increase year on year. Caverton’s rise to the very top started in the second half of 2017 after its half-year pre-tax profits came in at N938 million, compared to a loss before tax of N2.3 billion a year earlier. By the third quarter, it had improved to N1.89 billion and investors started to take notice.

Investors’ appetites widened, helping the share price rise from N0.92 to about N1.68 by October 2018. By the end of December, the share price had dropped to about N1.29, only to rise to a year high of N3 in February 2018. Investors had helped the stock to one of its best rallies as they awaited an impressive 2017 result.

Fundamentals

Caverton did not disappoint as it reported a profit after tax of N2.5 billion, a 330% increase year on year. The company’s top line revenue also rose 6.4% to close at N20.4 billion. Profit margin was also 12.6%, compared to 3.1% a year earlier and return on average equity hit 18%, compared to a 3-year average of 9.6%. The company also rewarded shareholders with a dividend per share of 15 kobo after going through 2016 without one.

How it makes money

The company makes money by providing helicopter and marine services to operators in the Oil and Gas industry and other sundry customers. Last year alone, it reported revenues of N20 billion from providing helicopter services to Oil and Gas Companies, about 98% of revenues. Caverton also earns most of its revenues in forex. By most standards, 2017 would seem a fabulous year for Caverton, until you look deeper.

Magic 2017

For Caverton, 2017 was a particularly great year for three major reasons. Firstly, it earned a net foreign exchange gain of N960 million, compared to a N2.2 billion loss a year earlier. Secondly, it also wrote back an accrued interest of N375 million and then finally, it earned a profit on disposal on PPE of N442 million. These combined earnings helped Caverton to have what was a magic 2017.

Take away these earnings, then you realise that Caverton still faces the same problems it had in 2016, if not worse. For example, gross profit margins were lower in 2017 compared to 2016, while operating expenses, as a percentage of gross profit, rose to 55% from 42% (in 2016). Revenues are still not at the 2014 levels of 25 billion when oil prices were at all-time highs.

Caverton’s moat as perhaps the dominant service provider of helicopters to upstream Oil and Gas companies is ironically its biggest challenge. If oil price heads south again, Caverton will be back to a well too familiar past. It once planned to extend its services to the Nigerian Airforce but dwindling government revenue has killed that idea.

Silver Lining

This analysis is not aimed at pouring cold water on Caverton’s results. Rather, it is to clearly outline the profit drivers for the company and highlight one-time events that can often mask inherent challenges in seemingly blistering results.


Caverton’s 2018 first quarter results is perhaps a better reflection of where things stand for the company. Pre-tax profits are up 34% despite a 10% revenue drop. They also explained that the reason for the drop in revenues was because they had not renewed their contracts in the first quarter of the year. Nairametrics reported recently that Caverton had signed the contract with Chevron/NNPC JV which commenced operations on April 1st, 2018.

The company achieved this by having a 20.6% drop in the cost of sales. The company disclosed that it recorded a major drop in aircraft rentals, aviation parts, and fuel, as well as cut in aircrew salaries. If it keeps the cost as low as it did in the first quarter of 2018, then we expect Caverton to sustain double-digit earnings per share growth.

Other risks

Caverton carries external debts of about N16.3 billion, out of which $10 million is to Access Bank, $17.9 million to BOI/Access Bank and $2.5 million to Heritage Bank. With a debt to equity ratio of over 100%, it is likely that Caverton will raise equity sometime this year.
If it does so, then expect earnings per share at the end of the year to fall perhaps lower than it did in 2017. This, of course, can be mitigated by the fact that its price to earnings ratio is still as low at 3x, despite its much acclaimed 187% capital appreciation in one year.

Buy sell or hold[b][/b]

Caverton is a mixed bag of upsides and downsides and it’s difficult to decide if this is a stock to buy, sell or hold. Several headwinds lie ahead for this company and the risk of a future capital raise is difficult to ignore. However, even if it were to raise N10 billion in this market at a price of N3 per share, it will nearly have to double its outstanding shares.

Thus, I believe that the company will focus on creating the right sentiments and momentum that could drive the share price to around N5 before it decides to raise equity. Based on this, my sentiments swing towards a buy for this stock. With fundamentals assured to improve on the back of its ability to renew juicy contracts, Caverton will grow its profits and win investor sentiments.

Courtesy: nairametrics.com

Onegentleguy's anti missile defence system activated....

Chibuking81:
Thanks for the advice, that is what I will do with that my UBA current account.

Fund the account let them continue......

Preparing for tomorrow's BEARS FESTIVAL.....