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7. Draw the RUGBY Arrows Showing Different Trading System Inside Box + Identify All 5 & 1 Hanging Fruit(s), and When to Sell, Hedge, Long, or Buy.

Your arrows direct the entire box framework into actionable triggers, based on where it's coming from and where it's pointing. It gives multiple mini-trading opportunities.

6. Draw the Parallel Channel RUGBY Lines From Bottom of Orange to Top of White.

Top, middle and bottom of honeydew is drawn, alongside the top of white box and bottom of orange box.

The blue parallel line helps in knowing the top of the cycle while the rest helps in knowing when a cycle or box is moving too fast (unhealthy), normal or too slow. It serves as a dynamic cycle rails and psychological markers for trend strength, trend weakness, and impending reversals.

5. Draw the SITM Dotted Line — the Sweet-In-The-Middle Line and January and June's Top/Bottom Retest Line.

This helps you know when to unhedge, close a short or enter a long position for the next box cycle.

4. Demarcate Each Year and Identify The 80th Week After Halving.

This helps know where each year starts and ends and where the 80th week is, to enable you draw a small box in the last 5 weeks (4mnths + 1wk) of the white box to the 80th week. And this helps you sell at the top, before the small box.

3. Draw the Boxes and the Red NTM (No-Trade Month) According to Their Colors in BuBumReSel.

Mark every box, every phase, and every NTM zone — label them. The colors give instant cycle-phase clarity at a glance and the labels reveal how tall each box can be.

1. Draw the Home-Sweet-Home Rainbow Chart.

This is your foundational map. It gives you cycle's top and bottom context and long-range bias before any box is even drawn.

Below is how it's created. You may not understand the images below, don't me mad, one day you will.

I'll post section by section of what I posted above with images of how they were created.

0. All drawing follows a color coding called RUGBY-WHO, (Red, ...urple, Green, Blue, Yellow, White, Honeydew & Orange color).

SETTING UP BOXNALYSIS STRATEGY — COMPLETE CHECKLIST

0. All drawing follows a color coding called RUGBY-WHO, (Red, ...urple, Green, Blue, Yellow, White, Honeydew & Orange color).

1. Draw the Home-Sweet-Home Rainbow Chart.

This is your foundational map. It gives you cycle's top and bottom context and long-range bias before any box is even drawn.

2. Draw the Bear-Market Parallel Line.

This comes before the boxes. It lets you anchor the down-cycle structure so every box that follows respects the bear-market geometry.

3. Draw the Boxes and the Red NTM (No-Trade Month) According to  Their Colors in BuBumReSel.

Mark every box, every phase, and every NTM zone — label them. The colors give instant cycle-phase clarity at a glance and the labels reveal how tall each box can be.

4. Demarcate Each Year and Identify The 80th Week After Halving.

This helps know where each year starts and ends and where the 80th week is, to enable you draw a small box in the last 5 weeks (4mnths + 1wk) of the white box to the 80th week. And this helps you sell at the top, before the small box.

5. Draw the SITM Dotted Line — the Sweet-In-The-Middle Line and January and June's Top/Bottom Retest Line.

This helps you know when to unhedge, close a short or enter a long position for the next box cycle.

6. Draw the Parallel Channel RUGBY Lines From Bottom of Orange to Top of White.

Top, middle and bottom of honeydew is drawn, alongside the top of white box and bottom of orange box.

The blue parallel line helps in knowing the top of the cycle while the rest helps in knowing when a cycle or box is moving too fast (unhealthy), normal or too slow. It serves as a dynamic cycle rails and psychological markers for trend strength, trend weakness, and impending reversals.

7. Draw the RUGBY Arrows Showing Different Trading System Inside Box + Identify All 5 & 1 Hanging Fruit(s), and When to Sell, Hedge, Long, or Buy.

Your arrows direct the entire box framework into actionable triggers, based on where it's coming from and where it's pointing. It gives multiple mini-trading opportunities.

8. Project Bottoms and Tops Using the Tallest Box.

Use the upper or lower half of the tallest box to forecast bottoming zones, and use the entire height of the tallest box, sometimes doubled, to project the top from blue parallel line.

9. Set Up Your Indicators.

*DIY indicator (for trend, liquidity and pivotal points)
* VWBB (the cloud that guides the moves in 1 week TF for bull market and 1 day TF for bear market. Identify aCloud, bCloud and iCloud of all NTM and even inside the boxes for your arrow trades).
* PPsignal 1 & 2 (For identifying The Wall of Jerico & China's different setups, serious and appropriate cycle, unserious cycle, and serious but inappropriate cycle, market bottom and more).
*iTrend, Double relative+, volume+ profile, and others.

10. Parallel Line Comparison and Analysis

This helps in knowing about the growth or retrogression of a box in a cycle and using those parallel lines.

One sad thing about the black race is how we've been programmed to focus on pleasure and leave discoveries, innovation and invention for the whites and when they're done digging it out, we consume their products and even flaunt them to show affluence — lambo, Bugatti, AI, drones, crypto, designers, airplane, etc.

Even when a black man invents, another black man go first enter one corner go BURST laugh. 😂 Why? He sees anything from his fellow black as inferior or fake — he just doesn't believe in himself let alone believe in another back man. But guess what? Some blacks believe in themselves and that's what matters.

On this note, I'll share a rough sketch of 10 steps, with images, of Boxnalysis and how easy it is to create, but looks exhaustive at first. This is the easiest system ever, but setting it up might look scary to a black man. It's all my best system put in one box and it has been accurate from 2010.

You know, as black men, our DNA is "I no come this life to suffer."

For me, I think differently — I must go through the pains to find a solution for my people even if other blacks, as usual, disapprove of it.

The owners of this world are shameless and stubborn people who don't give up — you can't beat them, you can only laugh at them, but they'll laugh at you at last.

Typing...

This one below is USDT dominance. Look at my before and after...

In the first post, there is a place I wrote 127k to 136k, but sadly, we stopped at 126.6k, which is approximately 127k. If we had gone further to hit the dotted purple line, then 136k would've been hit.

Why didn't we hit it? No QE and it's already too late because the 80th week after halving has already been exceeded.

Let's do a little retrospect. BTC has a roadmap it follows and it's predicable. Even if it deviates, it comes back on track. Just master this roadmap and you'll be ahead.

In August, 2025, when BTC was at 120k, I inverted my chart and showed you that roadmap. What's happening today? We're following that road home. It has been like this from 2010.

More...

1. *The most abused, iLégend
2. *The most mocked, iLégend
3. *The most posts, iLégend
4. *The most available, iLégend
5. *The most hated, iLégend
6. The most loved, iLégend
7. The most followed, iLégend
8. *The most talked about, iLégend
9. *The most photo uploaded, iLégend
10. The most organised, iLégend
11. The most annoying, iLégend
12. *The most cho-cho-cho, iLégend
13. The most arrogant, iLégend
14. The most humble, iLégend
15. The most focused, iLégend
16. The one who invents and knows it must work, iLégend (I'm so damn arrogant — haha & I won't change).
17. The most "I-Don't-Care," iLégend
18. *The one who shares the most, even things he's supposed to hide, iLégend
19. The one who researchers the most, iLégend.
20. You already know this one

The one with asterisks will soon come to an end and we'll be left with the rest.

Lesson:

Just do your thing and don't worry about online abuses. People are going through a lot and sometimes, abusing you and getting a reaction from you is all they need to feel elevated from their sad mood.

I have put all my 2024 and 2025 deep research into one umbrella called BOXnalysis and I'm so proud of it. Things really metamorphosed into this monster called BOXnalysis.

My confidence level about BTC has gone up compared to 2021. Dedication pays!

I won't be right every time, but damn, the accuracy of this system is uncanny. Even when it's wrong, it's just a tiny bit.

This system gives you an entirely different level of conviction and you won't be bothered by news or what other analysts say. Yours is the alpha and omega and you won't be distracted. If you lose, you lose with confidence.

I appreciate everyone who has contributed on this thread. If it was only me, I may have stopped, but your presence encouraged me and all gratitude is to you guys. It can't just be me me me — you guys are the boss and you boy is loyal.

You're the reason I feel like an accomplished scientist and the main reason I didn't give up despite being inundated with abuses from herdsmen. 😂

2025 is the best cycle so far! Most of you will only realize this in the future, when it's part of history.

After 10 years, I'll take out time to read all the quotes I got on this page. I have ignored most because they're always out of envy.

So, if you've quoted me and I haven't replied you, don't be mad — I haven't read it. When I do, I'll surely reply. I rank things in order of importance and I have pride too. 😂

To access the chart, go to the free Tradingview account I created, use 1 day TF and activate the indicator called VWBB or Volume Weighted Bollinger Band. I altered the settings for this shorting strategy.

Yes, I know I'm the king of 1 week TF, but this strategy is for 1day TF.

Modified: Oh, I just realized the one of 2014, 2018 and 2022 I posted are for 1 week TF.

ABOVE THE CLOUD (ATC) — BEAR MARKET SHORTING STRATEGY

In every bear market — 2014, 2018, 2022, and the coming 2026 — Bitcoin behaves with brutal consistency.

Every rally is a liquidation trap, not a trend change. The ATC strategy exploits this by identifying two premium short entries: Above the Cloud and Hanging Fruit.

Both rely on a double-layered Bollinger Band “cloud” on the daily timeframe — blue layer under, yellow layer above.


1. ABOVE THE CLOUD SETUP

When a daily candle pokes above the cloud (even if it fails to close above it), that day is Day 1. You never short on Day 1. On Day 2, the candle must be taller than Day 1. On Day 3, price must remain tall, or nearly the same height, or showing early signs of rollover. At the close of Day 3, the short is triggered. This pattern repeats in every bear cycle.

2. HANGING FRUIT SETUP (THE BEST ONE)

Hanging fruit forms when a daily candle lifts far above the cloud without touching it at all. It’s clean, elevated, and obvious — like fruit hanging off a branch. Once a hanging fruit candle appears, you short the very next day.
This entry has a higher strike-rate than Above the Cloud.

3. WHY THIS WORKS IN A BEAR MARKET

In downtrends, any upward movement is engineered to wipe out shorts or lure in trapped longs. Price rarely travels far above the Bollinger cloud, and when it does, it snaps back hard.
ATC exploits these exaggerated retracements with surgical precision.

4. CURRENT MARKET POSITION (LIVE)

Right now, price is above the cloud at 91.7k. That means today is Day 1. I do not short yet. If tomorrow forms a taller candle, and Day 3 holds height or begins to curve down, I short — whether 93k, 95k, 106K, or wherever the price settles.

If Day 2 becomes a hanging fruit, I take the hanging fruit short on the following day, not on that same day.

As I said, this ATC has been accurate in all cycles. See images.

If it's not ATC or a Hanging fruit, don't short.

In the above images, we have 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025. Their tallest boxes, excluding white box, made up know the top.

Let's analyse 2013. Is there really any need further analysis?

Anyway...

In 2013, cycle, the tallest was purple 🟣 box. Double of that height, starting from blue line, is the EXACT top.

This purple box was 573%, so I duplicated it. Double of that percentage, 1,146% = that top price at $1,157. Look at this two big purple arrows. Yes, that's the two of them stacked together.

2017 is also stacked like 2013. 2021 and 2025 aren't stacked.


All these things I'm sharing, might seem like too much, but one day, you'll know the value and you may no longer see them.

So, make hay while the sun shines.

I'll explain and it'll be brief.

The Honeydew box and the lines I drew that triggered the discovery.

🔥 EXACT MARKET TOP USING TALLEST BOX

I can confidently say I have practically arrested BTC to the point it can’t do anything new in my eyes. Whatever it does, I already know the outcome — or something extremely close to it.

Mastery isn’t born from luck. It comes from obsession, repetition, curiosity, and pattern-hunting until something hidden finally reveals itself.

THE DISCOVERY

I once made a post about spotting the exact market bottom. Today, it's about the exact market top using that same tallest box.

I use a system I created called Boxnalysis, where I divide and group the months based on behavior. In every block of months, there is one month where the market usually crashes or acts funny — the No-Trade Month (NTM).

Bear market structure contains two main boxes: Honeydew and Orange
(although parts of the White box also fall inside the bear phase).

THE LINES

During a deep study of the bear-market boxes, I drew a line at the bottom of Honeydew because it matched a precise measurement I was working on. Curiosity led me to draw at the middle and top of Honeydew as well.
Then something pushed me further to add a line at the top of White box and at the bottom of Orange box.

In the end, I had five parallel lines, in ascending order:
Red → .urple → Green → Blue → Yellow. (RUGBY color code. You know I love being organized).

THE BREAKTHROUGH

Just as I used the tallest box to find the exact bottom of the bear market,
I used the tallest box (excluding White box because it's the last box of the bull) to find the exact top of "that cycle" — and it was shockingly accurate.

But the measurement MUST begin from the Blue Line. (Important distinction: a blue line is not the same as a blue box.)

HISTORICAL VALIDATION

In the early cycles — 2013 and 2017 — the measurement from the blue line needed to be doubled to reach the market top. But in modern cycles — 2021 and 2025 — the measurement is single, no multiplier required.

2013 → height ×2 hit the exact top
2017 → height ×2 hit the exact top
2021 → height ×1 hit the exact top
2025 → height ×1 hit the exact top

THE RESULT

This is a complete, repeatable, cycle-based method for calculating the exact market top — not a guess, not a probability, but a measurement. Will it be accurate for the 4th time to make it 4/4? Maybe.

Here is a summarized explanation

In 2013, cycle, the tallest was purple 🟣 box. Double of that height, starting from blue line, is the EXACT top.

In 2017 cycle, the tallest was yellow 🟡 box. Double of that height, starting from blue line, is the EXACT top.

In 2021 cycle, the tallest was blue 🔵 box. A single of that height, starting from blue line, is the EXACT top.

In 2025 cycle, the tallest was purple 🟣 box. A single of that height, starting from blue line, is the EXACT top.

In the images below, the white arrow is pointing the tallest box of the cycle. The white circle above is the percentage of the box.

That exact percentage (sometimes, plus or minus 1%), was duplicated and used from blue line to measure the top of the cycle and the outcome is 💯 accurate.

Check the white circled price at the right hand corner, the end of the image and see how accurate it is for both the ones I doubled, 2013 & 2017 and the single ones, 2021 & 2025.

If you understand this post, you're smart, trust me.

Just the same way we used tallest box (excluding white box) to find market bottom, another magic has been discovered on using tallest box to find market top and it's 💯 accurate. I just can't believe it.

White box is always the last box for the bull run, hence we can't use it because at the time of finding the top, it won't exist, so we'll use any of the tallest boxes that already exists in that cycle.

Lecture coming soon.

In my previous lecture, I was talking about bear market. By the way, I hope you know there are 2-3 crucial months to short in bear.

1. March and sell in June
2. Between March to June, there is usually a fake pump inside there, but it never goes higher than March's top.
3. July top (short) and sell in December or January, the following year.

This has been true is all 3 previous cycles. I hope it's not now that I spoke about it things will change. Anyway, even if things change, it'll still come back on track.

See images below.

I had to go against my rule and post this before it's too late. I made a post about when the market will bottom, using purple box, the tallest.

The thing is, this is the first time purple box is the real tallest, so I don't really know if it belongs to upper half or lower half, but in my post yesterday, I just assumed it'll be upper half, hence I said 51k to 48k.

I just want to let you know that the middle of the lower half is 32k to 29k, should we choose that one.

So, it's good to prepare for both the upper half and lower half. Currently, only blue and white box happened in lower half.

Previous post: https://www.nairaland.com/6318352/crypto-currency-investors-thread/4728#137592736

My "No Internet Day" alarm just rang, so I'll log of and handle this topic on Thursday, if I'm still in the mood.

Those two blue dots are exactly the same in all the 3 previous cycles. It hasn't happened this year yet, so be watchful.

By the way, the price of that red line changes a bit as we go.

History keeps repeating because human emotions is still the same. BTC does nothing new other than little deviations caused by manipulation, but still comes back on track.

Stay blessed.

Now, let's talk about the two best shorting opportunities in the bear market.

We have more than 2, but these two are like consolidation if you missed shorting from top.

Take a look at these 3 images. Ignore everything and LOOK at the white arrow. Did you see the two blue dots? Where are they?

BEAR MARKET CHART 2022

The first image below is 2022 bear without any indicator. The second image is with The Wall of China indicator.

What did you notice in the second one?

Answer: Bottom MUST touch the red line of the cloud, hence, you must enter your best long positions there for the next bull run.

Unfortunately, the first attempt didn't, but luckily, the second did at 17k and it was even graceful enough to give us bonus by going below red line to hit 15.5k.

Buying at 17k, red line, is all you needed, but keep some money for bonus.


Next...

BEAR MARKET CHART 2018

The first image below is 2018 bear without any indicator, which I call nked chart. The second image is with The Wall of China indicator.

What did you notice in the second one?

Answer: Bottom MUST touch the red line of the cloud, ELSE, there will be a black swan months later or the following year that'll dump to that red line just like 2020 crash.

The crash is because 2018/2019 refused to obey tradition of touching the red line. 2020 has to do it — delay is not denial.

Next...

Please, don't forget to use the block button if you don't want to see my post. I have brief lecture about "The Wall" and when to short if you miss shorting from top.

BEAR MARKET CHART 2014

The first image below is 2014 bear without any indicator. The second image is with The Wall of China indicator.

What did you notice in the second one?

Answer: Bottom MUST touch the red line of the cloud, hence, you must enter your best long positions there for the next bull run.

Next...

5 Things In Btc To Never Forget

1. Period of the Market (BuBumReSel)
2. Direction of Market (trend direction)
3. Structure of Market (the box + NTM and how they connect)
4. Liquidity the Market Is Targeting (Supply & Demand via DIY Indicator)
5. Sentiment of the Market (What are FOMOers saying? Focus on opposite).

In 2026 and above, I'll let you people rest with images, but before then, you have no choice.

The Wall of China has been broken. The real blood hasn't even happened yet.

Don't forget, first week of January will pump 5-7%, then dumps. It'll move up again in February, then dumps again. It'll go up in March, but will dump in June. July will pump, then dumps in November or December.

That has been the roadmap in all previous 3 cycles.

In summary, bear market doesn't only go down. We'll see lots of pumps, but the trend is downtrend.

5 things to...

Those are my little contributions and I hope they help someone next time.


Collage

I have made this kind of post before, but this is just a reiteration.


When is market top? As you all know, my new strategy is: after the 80th week from the day of halving, my prediction about BTC is invalidated if the target price is not met yet.

Look at the 4 images below. The dotted red line is the 80th week. The white box there is 5 weeks to the 80th week. In all cycles, sell the week before that 5 weeks.

When that week comes, switch to 1 day timeframe and sell the day you see TAT, within those 7 days. TAT is Twice alAs Tall, meaning, the day green volume is high and goes above the 20EMA on the volume. When that day happens, sell the following day.


If you don't understand, ask questions.

First image is 2025. Second is 2021. Third is 2017 and fourth is 2013.

Where the red arrows are pointing were exactly the bottom. Purple box said 51k to 48k range will be the bottom in 2026. If it gets it right, that'll make it 4/4 accurate prediction in 16 years.

This post is just for reference purposes in the future.

Update: 26th, Nov, 2025
https://www.nairaland.com/6318352/crypto-currency-investors-thread/4729#137605367