₦airaland Forum

Secret: If you want to make money, enter a reckless long position in Sol and ETH. The danger is over for the top coins. It's not going back to $140 or $3.4k lows until the cycle is over, then it can in bear market.

For the rest of altcoins that are not in top 50, there is still 5% drawdown left but it's not much anyway.

If you focus on top 5 or top 10 coins and make your money slowly, you'll be safe. Also, I'll repeat it until you get it — one week timeframe is the best because it exposes the trend of top 5 coins with ease. It helped me predict two buying prices for both ETH and SOL and they happened with extra leg down.

I'm not saying I know everything in life, but using 1 week TF gives you an advantage when trading top 5 coins. It helps you know where the strongest supports and resistances are. It makes you look like a genius even though it's simple and anyone can do it.

Why didn't I short since I knew alts haven't gone home?

I avoided alts, but bought Giggle at $20 and in less than 4 days, it pumped to almost $200 and I left. I bought Aster in less than $1 and it pumped to $2.6 or $2.4 and I left.

This shows that I was careful with alts because I knew we needed to go home also for the fact that QE hasn't started fully.

Now, how did my 2 BTC trades liquidate me?
Based on history, everyone knows there will be a dump in late September and if September refuses, first week of October will dump before parabola.

I even made posts about it here. After the 7th day of October, i.e. 1 week, I said, "Maybe, the minor drawdown in September is as low as we can get since 2013 type of dump I was hoping on has refused to happen — all thanks to BlackRock and institutional buyers." That was my thought.

Na now I know say even BlackRock no get level. If BTC wants to go to $15,000, it will despite institutional interest.

I'm the King of No Stoploss. One of my liquidations was at 114k and another was at 103k. This was when BTC was at 122k to 119k.

The one of 114k, I put a stoploss, but the one of 103k, I didn't. I trade with what I can lose and still be happy.

The one of 114k terminated itself, but the one of 103k liquidated me.

Lesson: No matter what, I'll use stoploss because of this experience. I'm so happy it happened. I'm no longer King of No Stoploss.

This cycle is full of memorable lessons and it's what everyone needs to reduce our pride and adjust our strategies for better. No one should take this even as a setback, but an opportunity to improve on our investment and financial management skills. The dump is a blessing to the wise.

Lesson and Tips for Future Traders:

(Don't read, it's too long for you — this content isn't for you).

1. No matter how small your leverage on an altcoin is, even if it's 1.5x, you can be liquidated in an altcoin black swan, being alt going home in sell year (we just witnessed it). This is not the first time, but people easily forget the same way they forgot MMM and still fell for CBEX.

2. If BTC doesn't crash half of its top price, it's not a black swan for BTC, but can be for alts as it is in this case. BTC's weekly top was 122k, but only crashed to 101k, hence it's not a black swan. If it had crashed to $61k or lower, then it's a black swan. With this knowledge, you can trade BTC as if it's an alt by making sure your liquation is at black swan price and also, set a buy order on spot at that price incase of black swan. If you lose your long, at least you'll get a great spot entry and you'll recover your loss almost immediately or in a few weeks time. Why should you do this ahead of time? Most exchanges won't allow you place an order during high volatility chaos.

3. No one is perfect, but at least knowing the history of the person (industry) you want to marry is important. Isn't it?

4. BTC crash as your number 1 metric to know when to enter alts. If BTC hasn't crashed -12% or more in a day, don't touch alt, but if you do, leave when you see tangible profit. Yes, I know when you leave is when it'll pump X20, it's a trap so don't be mad at yourself, you've done your best.

5. Your strategy should be planned with black swan in mind and know the months that are dangerous based on re-se-bu-bum and they are March, April, July, August, and Sept. October is not dangerous, but if September refuses to dump, then October will help. Note: October of Relax year has a different behaviour compared to October of Sell year or Buy more year. Same applies to other months. The more people know this trick, the more market makers will alter it. They knew October is considered Uptober, so they dumped a little in September, which everyone calls Rektember, to make us feel the dump is done and boom, they pulled the trigger in October.

6. Trading BTC on high leverage, where your liquation is at black swan level is safer than trading alts on 2x. I don't even need to explain — see it below. Though, there are time to trade alts at any leverage you want, but in overall safety scale, BTC high leverage is better than alts low leverage.

7. Master trading top 5 coins and accumulate your money slowly. If you must do anything below top 5, let it be spot only, but if it's futures, leave on time and only mess with money you're willing to lose. You can change your conviction, but have a reason 10x better than your previous.

8. Have multiple exchanges and split your money. Put your USDT in flexible to earn interest while waiting for a Red Vulture or worse, black swan day. IT MUST HAPPEN — it's a matter of time or worse, 2 years. Wait! What if USDT gets depegged? That's scary, so use USDC.

9. Try and get to a point where you no longer listen to anybody but yourself and maybe, 1 person you trust and love his/her approach.

10. Your entry is important, but your exit is even more important. Set your strategy in a way you'll always pray for the worst because you're more prepared for it than for the best. Also remember: no matter how disciplined and strategic you are, money is a SPIRIT and there's 80% chances of violating your rules even if you're James Bond. Plan as if you're going to lose everything when you go to sleep, then plan of how not to lose too much when the worst happens while asleep.

As I once said, the best entry and strategy is the one when you lose, you don't lose much or everything, but when you win, you win way too much with less emotional investment.

11. When you're desperate to get a woman, she won't find you attractive — you become repulsive in her eyes and that's exactly how it works with money. Nigerian influencers are so desperate to make money, but a guy called Vincent isn't, hence he gets opportunities to make way more money than all of them.

12. Have other sources of income and use crypto as backup and fun play. Also, when you make so much from crypto, take profit and invest offline in land, farming, housing, etc. Plan yourself in a way you can't lose everything and even if you do, you can easily bounce back in max, 1 year.

13. Learn to miss some pumps and watch from the sideline until the day you hear "suicide because he lost everything" then you get back in the market. And don't forget, learn and master how the 4 year cycle works.

This is the best cycle. Why?

It's full of pains, losses, wins, manipulation, rage, transferred aggression, suicide, quitters, doubters, patience, impatience, FOMO, delays, etc.

Also, it's the year to let everyone know that any coin outside top 5 is gambling and they're all sh!tcoins except BTC.

Next cycle, BTC will pump harder than this cycle because 90% will buy only BTC and top 5 coins. Also, it's a cycle that will make everyone take "alt going home" seriously.

The unserious and desperate ones are going to quit crypto, but the serious and smart will start learning more about it.

I repeat, this is the best cycle because it came with all important lessons and events and the newbies of this year will be the wisest in our next cycle.

I don't monitor FOMC meetings anymore (it's time-consuming), I monitor history and that's why I pointed out 2013 as my target and it repeated, but not on the expected month — a week later on the following month.

It's easy not to see my post. Click on my name and click on block. We no send you for here and we no go even notice you just as we've never noticed you. Na you go block, na you go still announce am just to be noticed. Can't you do it in silence?

So, this is the best cycle and I pray everyone took notes and documented it.

I even made a 1 hour 30 minutes documentation of what happened, the little mistake I made and how I'll handle it better next time.

What doesn't get documented doesn't get analyzed and improved.

General Apology to Everyone About Oct. 10th Crash

I was sent by the gods and the government to tell everyone that alts must go home before altseason will have a chance. Going home meant crashing at least 20-80%.

I preached it day and night and I was even abused for it, but I kept preaching. This was one of the reasons I stuck with BTC and sometimes ETH or Sol, which are part of my GLE-BOSS acronym.

I even told everyone that any alt they buy, when they see small profit, they should sell and run till alt goes home. I told them there are 10 things that must happen before they take alts seriously.

Maybe, they skipped my post since they're usually long. If it was a corn video of 3 hours with Mia Khalifa, they'll finish it. Am I to be blamed? Yes.

Why? Because I'm supposed to go to everybody's house and tell them this "Alt Going Home" info, but I didn't, so I'm really sorry for your losses and I sincerely apologize for not coming to your doorsteps to inform you.

Whatever loss you incurred in this crash, it's my fault and you have the legal right to abuse and attack me. And please, y'all should forgive me.

Don't forget, it'll still happen in 2029 and other sell years in the future.

opella:
Number 6 happening.....

Number 6 done or at least 95% done.

I said it's 10, but listed only 6. Anyway, 8 of them is done and dusted. If the remaining two don't happen, the altseason won't make sense.

Using the 1-week timeframe, I mentioned a certain yellow line that holds the weekly candle in NTM, No Trade Month, September, against the whi🤍te garment box).

Notably, it doesn't close below the yellow line. However, in 2013, it wicked down. So, I was hoping and waiting for this to happen at the end of September, just like in 2013.

Although it prolonged for a week, it ultimately occurred in October, a week later, resulting in a $19 billion liquidation.

Yes, I expected it in September, but the big guys held it back.

Nevertheless, it's not unprecedented. Similarly, we anticipated alts to "go home" – like Ethereum did months ago at $1,400 – and it finally did. This too is not new.

Whenever alts "go home," we typically see a 20-80% dump, and some might even plummet to zero before the real bull run occurs.

These patterns may be unfamiliar to newbies who refuse to listen to those who have dedicated years to studying market cycles and potential eventualities that might alter history and tradition.

While we're not perfect, we understand history. Even if it doesn't repeat exactly, it often rhymes.

The issue is that people in the financial market, particularly crypto, often operate on emotions rather than patience (money is a spirit). Market makers exploit this, using it against retail traders.

Your entry point matters about 90% of the time, with strategy, psychology, financial management, etc. make up the remainder.

Develop a strategy that protects you during times like these, as they'll likely reoccur in the future – it's part of the process.

Spiritualizt:
Got wipe out yesterday, it's crazy this is happening to me the second time first this year Feb 26 now again

The one that happened, did you diagnose the situation, take notes and write out what you should do better next time to avoid it or at least not get rekt? I know you didn't.

What doesn't get documented doesn't get analysed and always repeats.

Enjoy!

NJV:
Pls will it be safe to buy Doge now?

Since it's in top 20, yes, but some coins will still go down a little more or at least try to retest this low to an extent.

Crypto is simple.

There are 1-2 red vulture days every single year and it's always bloody and a minimum of -12 dump in a day with billions in liquidation. Prepare for at least 1 of them, if not two of them no matter how long they take.

Also, there are months they usually happen and has been consistent, so prepare for them.

Study the re-se-bu-bum guide because it analyzed everything in a lay man's language and it hasn't failed yet.

Note: Crypto is predictable, but all of us are liars, so we tend to say it's not predictable just to make newbies happy.

And oh, learn to buy mostly in No-DJ months and A or A+ setup only. For B and B+, that's like gambling, but sometimes pays.

And also don't forget, have a long-term plan (1-4 years) with BTC and top 10 coins and use mostly bigger timeframe when analyzing the market to get a better picture of the situation.

Lastly, BTC is a blessing to mankind, so don't allow an ordinary red vulture day change your mind.

Study history and behaviour of BTC and watch how it always rhymes even if the timing is not not exact.

The market rewards a deligent specialist.

Those who haven't read the red vulture story I posted in April, read it here and you'll learn something. https://www.nairaland.com/6318352/crypto-currency-investors-thread/4458#134995769

Worst time to ask you to read, but please do. Nothing is new in this game. I initially called this a black swan, but realized I calculate my black swan as 1 week top price divided by 2 and if it's halved, then it's black swan, else, it's red vulture. In 2020, in a week, we moved from 8k to 3.8k and that is halved, so it's black swan.

This one is from 126k to 101k, so it's nothing but a normal dump or red vulture (which must happen at least once per year). If it was down to 63k, then it's a black swan.

Always, and I repeat, always prepare for it. Have an account for red vulture event and another one for black swan. I know money is hard, but please, do this. Even if it's just $200 or even $50 you kept in each, waiting for this event, you won't regret it.

You can lend the money to your exchange to earn until this day happens — it might take months, but don't panic and spend it out of FOMO. Keep them for this purpose only. It'll shock you how you'll turn this small money to big money in times like these while others are crying.

Me I no pity anybody o because those who participated in this cycle will be the wisest and most strategic ever in this crypto space — they've learned from experience in a hard way and some of them have taken notes.

I hope they didn't forget the EndBadGovernance crash we had in July-August 2024 from 70k to 48k. Have accounts prepared for days like these. Simple.

I have been screaming alts must go home before the altseason will start. Guess what? It's home, but not 100%, just 95%.

Is that enough? Maybe, but just know that only top 20-50 has fully gone home. The rest will recover next week, then most will go lower than they did today before we finally see altseason. Sad reality!

Loaded my $Aster at $1 and ready for the moon.

The vow I made is a lifesaver. No matter the dump, I must have USDT that won't be touched — even if BTC dumps to $0.5.

Sadly, only few people will document this in their diary with videos as reminder in the future to how to strategize. I don't really see this dump as big a deal, but 13 billion liquidation in a day, damn! 😂 I have almost recouped what I lost.

A good entry is one of the secrets and always having multiple accounts and being ready for a red vulture day.

I'll document all the tears I'll see on YouTube tomorrow.

Hey guys, it's just money you lost, not your life.

Nothing is new in crypto, only being patient and strategic is new to everyone or most. I got liquidated in two of my trades, but got a great entry with some USDT left in case of more catastrophe.

Stay blessed, everyone. It's part of the game and men are always prepared for it. From 122,500 to 101500 dump. That's 21k dump. I caught everything on camera to help me analyse and add it to my repertoire.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst. This is an opportunity for the prepared! Sadly, most people don't have USDT left to get in.

Black swan done and dusted.

I always tell people 1 week timeframe is the best — it makes you see everything clearly and set traps at lower Bollinger Band.

Thank you, Mr. Red Vulture day. The USDT I kept aside for you for more than 5 months has finally been used.

spiSeyi:
If not for the decay system this type of people won't be relevant (both Lege & VDM). I weep for the future of this country

If not for the decay in our educational system, how can a graduate like you not know the difference between "these types of people" and "this type of person?"

Now, you see? Fix the one (decay) you can first. You can't do half of what VDM is trying to do for the nation. He's relevant because he solves some problems in the society.

Which one are you currently solving? You're weeping for a future where you, someone who isn't making any impact, is always complaining of people making impacts. You're part of the problem, my dear.

Bullish99:
Based on experience in this market, if BTC stays or hover around a particular price point for a long time as this; na downtrend sure pass.

U are majorly always bullish and that's what lots of folks like here.

...

jayce232:
I remember the post
I think btcee dumped to around 98k then before moving upward

Using the 98k you mentioned, I had to check my chart to find the month it happened, then search Nairaland for that month to see if I'll find the post and I got it. His name is Bullish99 and posted on June, 20th.

Though, in this case, we already have two downward movements and this makes it hard to predict if we'll have the third one. Since there is POI and demand down there, including CME gap, maybe.

There was someone who once made a post 4 months (or thereabout) ago that whenever the market struggles to move up and spends time consolidating for weeks, from his experience, the direction is always a dump, people attacked him, but that was exactly what happened. I wanted to say he's right, but when I saw the attacks, I kept mute. We're also experiencing it right now.

If anyone knows the comment, help quote it.

Remember, when Naira strengthens, politicians will immediately convert their Naira to Dollar and wait for 3-6 months when it'll weaken so that they'll convert their Dollar back to Naira, then wait another 3-6 months for it to strengthen again.

It's normal arbitrage on a large scale. As long as our leaders are corrupt, Naira stability is temporary. Politicians are not your saviour, they're business men and they love profit just like you.

Onana why?



Trigger!

richmond500:
I stopped reading from this part.
It's obvious OP doesn't know what monopoly mean.
Monopoly stiffles and kills competition

In a developing country, monopoly makes everyone, including the wealthy upset and starts competition to dismantle the current monopolist.

Can't you see individuals are teaming up to build refineries just because they fear Dangote will control that industry? It's been more than 55 years, they didn't think of building refineries, but now, they want to. Isn't that competition?

If not for Dangote, they wouldn't have bothered. You just chose not to pay attention to the context of my post — you're more focused on the meaning of monopoly, not what it can trigger — competition to end it.

Easy as pie.

Too close to be ignored, but since I'm not the owner of this market, I have no control over what will happen.

Refer to the circled areas — the point of interest POI and Demand area. Both are close to be hit this month end or early Oct for liquidity grab. Without liquidity, the market CAN'T pump.


On the 19th of October, I'll make a post and we'll revisit my October 20th theory that hasn't failed yet in all 3 previous cycles.

mizzygray:
Do you advice a buy on this? And what's the long term holding period you're looking at sir?

I don't really advise people on what to buy, but I bought it.

How long to hold? We're close to the end of the cycle (No-DJ) and anything beyond that, you'll be dumped on.

So, in November or December, whichever day it pumps 100% or 500% or more in a day, you sell and run. (2-3 months).

Foladebe:
Please, what about solana?

Anything from $172 to $146 is a buy. Buying at the current price of $192 is not bad, but that trendline is strong and always retests it.

Sanoske360:
Please if l buy ETH at 3.6 or 3.5 should l hold and sell in January or February bear 🐻 season.

The market will determine that, but in most cases, ending of November or early December this year will be the top to sell.

It MIGHT extend to Jan or Feb next year, but that's some level of greed and it may backfire. If profit is substantial, it's just good to leave in Nov or Dec.

$Aster

If you dare go below $1.0, that'll be miracle.

This coin has bad tokenomics, but since CZ_Binance is on it, I'm on it. If he leaves, I sell.

geedot:
Entry is extremely important in any form of trading. You wanna be among the early buyers instead of being the one paying the early buyers, while you're hoping someone buys after you so you can also get paid.

But it seems we are seeing this from which one is harder for us to tame. It seems waiting for your A+ setup was very hard for you to tame, but on my part I've never had issue with waiting for my precise entry price, so FOMO has not been an issue for years now, but you see holding too long or cutting too short is one aspect I'm still working on even till now.

I tried set and forget, but I wouldn't stop remembering to check lol. I tried taking partials, it messes up the RR. Etc.

💯 Spot on. You just explained my problem back then. I never had problem with hold and forget. I can even forget for years. Having too many exchanges helped me with that. If it was only 1-2 exchanges or wallets, it'd be hard to hold.

👍

1 week timeframe is the best. It exposes things easily.