₦airaland Forum

In that post, I think I said something along the line of, "On the 10th to 15th, there will be a crash. If we survive it, there will be a parabolic pump, else, it's over."

Did we get the crash? Yes. Did we survive it?

Read the circled part. I still stand on what I said.

The worst sets of people to share crypto knowledge with are newbies who have lost half of their portfolios.

If you make a prediction and dynamics start to change or you made a discovery and you inform them ahead of time, they'll be upset and act hostile towards you — money is a spirit with emotions. and newbies don't want direction/direction to change. If you don't inform them, they'll mock you in the end that your predictions failed.

Summary: You must be mocked in one way or the other whenever they're bleeding.

The main reason I don't recommend coins — cuz the creator may be legit at first until circumstances push them to shutdown like Luna.

The person I pity the most is Graceglory. I fervently pray altseason comes, else they'll abuse him and won't trust him again despite all the good efforts he has put in this journey.

People just hate negative news, including myself, but I changed that to avoid desperation.

We move!

In the end, crypto is just about 90% entry and 10% patience + strategy with money you don't really need. The type of trade you'll enter and even forget you ever it. This 90% entry actually requires patience, hence patience = 90%

Siberia01:
I hate to say this, but crypto is dead
Cut your losses and move on
Invest the money elsewhere
There are a million coins out there with people hoping to breakeven

It's not dead. You can say the cycle is dead, but will rise again in 12-15 months time.

The video he sent me that made me do some research all over again.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCPVgg9n4I8?si=fRKiIJufpeu9aWMC

Evaloyal2J:
you said in your previous post that after a second dump from 12 to 15th of November, will see parabolic pump. Please, What changed ?

My apologies if my prediction misled you. The question is, did the 10-15th dump happen as predicted? Yes.

As I said in one of my write-ups above, I improve everyday and I share my findings, I don't hoard, but it seems people on this page actually don't like it.

Maybe it's cuz my write-ups are sometimes long or I'm spoiling business for them. I'm only trying to be as detailed and simplistic as possible and contribute to the community.

They want me to say we'll pump and stick to it even if dynamics change or I discover something new so that when the pump doesn't happen, they'll mock me.

I always stand on my words, but new discoveries make me alert the public. It's like VDM and China Ross. When he discovered Ross's way isn't truly as he thought, he alerted everyone, but some people on Twitter won't because it'll ruin their relationship (respect) or reputation.

Let's forget about others and focus on your question. Authors love stories and narratives.

Two days ago, someone sent me a video on TG, see it below, about what a YouTuber said about BTC halving cycle. When people take out their precious time to send me a video on a topic I'm interested in, I 100% watch it.

I once studied it some years ago, but didn't take it seriously — I'm more into the round-up version called 4 Year Cycle, which still works.

After watching up to 25 videos on halving cycle, I finally took it seriously and incorporated it into my strategy.

After halving, it takes BTC 1 year and 6 months max to top and that is 80 weeks. Refer to the red line in the image below.

I did a detailed research and found out it's actually true and the moment the red line prints, it's over, no matter the hopium, state of the cycle, your "PRECIOUS" price target, fed news, rate cut, QE, etc. - the market can no longer go above that candle (red line) it printed on.

In this case, it was 109k to 111k. It can retest it, but going above it has never happened in history, except if this time will be different.

So, that red line is the reason I switched cuz it has held strong in all previous cycles. I'm only talking about BTC.

For alts, there might still be a bit of rallies, but only if BTC retests the 109k to 111k or stubbornly 115k area to liquidate us.

I hope you understand my point. If not for this red boundary, I wouldn't have changed. My SITM strategy is still valid, but this red line has truncated the journey. It's not my fault, but I still take full responsibility for letting the red line print on the 80th week. I should've made it to wait till the parabolic pump happens.

With my little epistle, I hope you now know why. Every strategy I have shared here is still valid, but red line has put asunder in acualizing them. Time no dey again — just like exam. Even if you know the answer, the moment the time is up, they snatch the paper from you. No invigilator will allow you finish just because you know the answer. Why didn't you finish it on time?

Or another example is relationship. A certain behavior or discovery can make you fall out of love even though your initial love towards the person was genuine. In the end, humans will say, "You never loved him." If you loved him, you'll never leave him after discovering he's a serial mdrrr.

The end...

Itzlinda:
Why do you quit Alt? You realised it is scam? what is your opinion about them?

I only enter alts when QE is on, not QT. Since this cycle, it's been QT, hence, any alts I enter, I leave on time when I see small profit. I didn't 100% quit, I still buy it whenever I see some opportunities, but I sell after some pumps.

Though, top 10 alts are still a good buy during bear market bottom, but for other alts, QE needs to start before I take them seriously.

Itzlinda:
So nothing will save alt bag. I will have to wait 5 years again?

One more thing, when bear market hits alts, (it has only hit BTC for now) that your bag will still lose another 95%. But the good news is, alts might experience a relief rally (if and only if BTC rallies) — just pray for BTC to rally to 109k and pull alts along. Other than that, it's over because the halving cycle has ended last week being the 80th week.

Itzlinda:
So nothing will save alt bag. I will have to wait 5 years again?

My speech is 100% on BTC. It'll still try to retest 109k+ in few weeks or months, but won't get to 115k (that's an overstretch — except there are billions of shorts to be liquidated there).

Going that high is not because of renewed hope, but market makers, exchanges and whales trying to liquidate one another before a final dump.

So, these up and down retests to 109k might make alts rally, coupled with QE and fed, but it won't last more than 2 weeks and the party will be over.

I'm more of a BTC specialist. Used to be into alts in 2021.

People don't pay attention to details cuz of greed. Those of us that do, it's as if we talk too much, but we're just messengers.

If you pay attention, 12 months ago or thereabout, we called yellow top at 108k to 109k. That 17k (109 + 17 = 126k) you saw is just extra to keep hopium alive so that big names will sell — distribution.

If you look at the image below, the green dotted line is the 40th week starting from halving while the red is 80th week, the end of the halving cycle.

Did you notice something? The red line broke down at exactly 109k, which is yellow top. It's not a coincidence, but calculated. They're done with their arithmetic, so it's time to slowly go home while giving you occasionally rallies that won't except 115k max.

So, that range of 108k to 109k and maybe, wick up to 111k will be the region BTC will retest in first week of January, then dumps and go again in March (though lower) to bring back hopium and people will start calling for "super cycle." It's a trap, don't fall for it.

I pay too much attention to details and history— na him be my problem.

I apologize to those who expect hopium from me at this time. I'm rigid with my patience, but flexible with the dynamics of the market.

Itzlinda:
Probably when the fed turn on the money printer again.

Every smart investor knows that even if they turn the money printer, which they've secretly done, that this cycle is dead and any pump is a trap and it's better to load up again in November or December of 2026 than now.

Selling in December 2024 / January 2025 when BTC was at 108k and 109k, which I called the market yellow top wasn't a bad idea.

It's almost 12 months now since that time and we only added extra 17k to arrive at 126k.

This same 17k to 15k was our market bottom price in 2022. So, the entire 2025, we only moved $17k.

Using 5, 7 or 12k extra, it's almost as if everything is calculated (it actually is). 12k + 5k = 17k.

Anyway, I always prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Itzlinda:
Lol so the top is in? Means we are bleeped. Who will buy altcoins again next cycle?

If we're basing it on history, yes, but since people on other social media platforms always say history doesn't repeat and this time is different, we'll wait for how different this time would be.

People will buy cuz humans forget easily and this industry is ruled by emotions and newcomers with gambling history, hence every bad thing will still repeat. #FACT!

jayce232:
You are one great contributor of this thread & I have high regard for u, but I think the problem I observe about u is u always want to be right. Things doesn't work that way. You should stand for something. This has led to u coming up with so many cumbersome rules which an average person can't follow. Almost seem like u speak from both side of the mouth just to be in a safe position. Your post is suggesting bull run is over, but if the market should pump now u will come up with another rule.

This has made grace.glory very different from every analyst on this thread, dude position on alt season has been firm & has hardly switch lane, even if an alt season doesn't happen, alot of us will always respect him for his firm position. You kinda switch too often which can be misleading. Don't see this as an attack, but just an observation.

Great observations, but I don't really think I switch lane, I just improve often and adjust to the new discoveries if they're better than the previous or on the same level. Don't you think that is a good thing? I know you do.

In real life, we all have pride and principles, but in crypto, I don't have pride, I have change.

Crypto is a thing of probability and growth, not constant. I understand keeping up with me can be overwhelming because of new info. If I tell you to buy a coin and I later realize things aren't the same, I announce it.

My previous posts here are not invalid, they just improve and I announce them and their different alternatives. (I guess my problem is 'oversharing').

Since I grow everyday, I end up sharing regularly. I guess the spirit of always wanting to share is the reason you see it that way. I'll work on it.

If your school refuses to change curriculum after years, you'll revolt, trust me. My system doesn't change, but roads that lead to it regularly improve.

The main disadvantage I find in my post is "length" or people keeping up, but since I see here as more of an open diary and my contents is a future book, it ends up being lengthy and humans don't like that — we have shorter attention span as we evolve. So, my apologies in that regard.

All I'm trying to defend is, I don't switch often — I improve often and not ashamed to announce the improvement with my full chest.

This my approach will only be valued when I'm no longer here, trust me. People will one day miss it and say, "Where is iLégend, he used to give us update back to back."

I'm not angry at your observations because if I were you, I'll feel the same way. Keeping up with me is overwhelmingly hard and I know it, hence I regularly go on break even when I have new and better things to post.

So, appreciate you for your post.

The stubborn CME gap is finally about to happen soon, thanks to dth cross.

If you think you've missed shorting it at the top, then enter a short trade with money you can lose and let your liquidation be 126k and don't put stoploss. Maybe, because of you, we might just go back there, but if we don't, you win BIG!

Tilson indicator and 80 week cycle said it's over for BTC, but it's left for you to make your own decision.

In January, I made a post about Tilson T3 signal. I said from the 20th of October, if the green or blue turn red, SELLLLL.

HERE is a link to see the post and the pictures I uploaded. It's a short read. From the image below, it turned red and I had been meaning to post it, but felt you guys already knew about it through that post and there wasn't any need.

https://www.nairaland.com/6318352/crypto-currency-investors-thread/4206#133882064

Did you see a green colour there? Yes, zoom it. On the 20th of October, it turned red, so it's over based on history except if this time is different.

One thing newbies should know is, something called INVALIDATION.

That redline is an invalidator. Some newbies think the moment you change your mind, you're a failure. These same people will send a cheating w/m away because she's not the person he used to know. He CHANGED HIS MIND about her, but can't about BTC when things get invalidated.

I'm only a researcher and a messenger — the final decision is on you. "Fed is printing, global liquidity is rising, QE will soon start, etc. and the market will pump because the cycle is different and it's a supercycle. Alt season must happen, else the cycle won't end."

These are some of the things on YouTube. The same YouTubers who said this cycle is different forgot that the word "different" could go both ways. It could be the first time without parabolic alt season — considering the level of liquidation on the 10th of October which made every sensible person realize something about alts.

NOTE: WE STILL HAVE 15 DAYS FOR THE MONTHLY CANDLE TO CLOSE AND WE MIGHT BE LUCKY TO SEE IT PUMP ABOVE THE BLUE LINE, BUT THE MOMENT DECEMBER COMES WITHOUT IT GOING ABOVE IT, THEN IT'S DONE AND DUSTED FOR THE CYCLES.

Don't forget March and July ALWAYS pump in a bull market, so those are two months to short.

Below is for 2013, 2017, and 2021.

From my findings, after the 80th week, red line, the market is dead for BTC. I don't know about alts since it's not my specialty.

If you look at the image below you'll see where a yellow arrow is pointing. That the the body of any candle taller than the one that prints under the red line. That place is my highest stoploss incase the cycle want to be different.

NO CANDLE has ever gone above any candle the red line printed on. The highest it could do is to retest it like 2017/2018 did. If this year retests it, that's 111.5k. For the yellow, it's 114k ≈ 115k. My question is, will this time be different?

Now, let me post for 2013, 2017, 2021 and...

By the way, 2013 topped in December, 2013, but the 80th week, the red, printed in June, 2014. This is to say, the top has happened 6-7 months ahead in that 2013 cycle.

In 2017, it printed red two months after the top.
In 1 an 2021, it printed red the following month.
In 2025, it also printed red the following month.

I'm not going to make decisions for you and end up taking the blame for misleading you.

As I said, whenever this red prints, all my cycle prediction for BTC automatically becomes void and I switch straight to my bear market strategy even though I know it may go retest the blue line or even break it for the first time.

Lesson: Focus on time, not price, after the 80th week of every halving cycle. You must make this switch, else you bleed. This doesn't mean there won't be relief rallies, there will, but for BTC, it HASN'T YET gone above the blue line.

This is not a financial advice, but my finding and I urge you to disregard it and follow your rules as long as you have a strong conviction in it.

It's quite easy. Go to Tradingview and search for Bitcoin Halving. There are 3-4 I like, but lest use the one by akaLOCKSMITH.

When you add it, go to the settings and untick that red and green background and you'll be left with green line for start of cycle, yellow line for start of halving and red line = 80 weeks from halving (1 year and half month + or - ).

Now, let me explain what I found in simple English.

One thing about me is, even when I know something, I never stop learning, researching and digging more data, especially on a topic I'm interested.

After years of studying halving, but neglecting it, someone sent me a video on TG and it's about halving. I watched it and got inspired again to look into it.

Immediately, I watched at least 25 videos to see their perspective if I'll finally take it seriously and find a way to add it to my too arsenal and I finally did and it's not too late.

here's my finding... "I'll keep it short." Not a promise, but I'll try.

Gucciboy:
Replying with all your emotions in letters means l struck your nerves,didn't l?

You did.

Gucciboy:
Didn't understand a thing,new theories everyday you no dey tire?

With the type of suffering you're going through and even putting your account number on your page for giveaway, understanding my post is impossible. It's only for people who have eaten and have strength to assimilate 0s and 1s.

From 77-80th week after halving, all my price predictions will be null and void, if it hasn't been met no matter the promises of what the fed or market is about to do next. Prediction is not a due or die, but anticipation. Sometimes, you get betrayed by fed.

The month this 77-80th week falls on won't matter.

It could be September, October, November or December or even January, the following year. That's the new mantra.

Remember, during market top, big cooperations pay big YouTubers and content creators to preach how we'll head to the moon and how the pump hasn't even started. This is to create exit liquidity for them.

Get to a stage where you only listen to yourself and chart and if your prediction fails, fine — life goes on.

If you look carefully, BTC has never moved higher after the 80th week counting from halving date.

It's always inbetween 75 week to 79 week and some days.

Though, after dumping, it can pump close to the top to give hopium, but hasn't broken it yet in history — except if this time will be different.

Remember, my chart and past predictions is for BTC to hit 145k or 155k and at most, 175k. (hoping America will start printing, it seems by hope has been dashed).

Sadly, this might not be achieved because we have reached the 80th week already from the day of halving, 20 of April 2024 to 10th of October 2025, is 76 weeks and 6 days ≈ 77 weeks.

If you include today, 14th of November, 2025, then that makes it 82 weeks.

So, we have two weeks extra already, hence the dump.

Miners, dumped on the 10th of October because 11th was the last day for the 77-80 week range they chose to unleash.

They wanted to be ahead with max profit, hence the crash, but people said it's Trump tariff, which isn't.

Why didn't we hit 177k or at least, 145k? America! They caused it for not starting QE, Quantitative Easing, so that money can flow into the hands of companies and citizen to invest in risk assets.

I'm blaming America and at the same time, thanking America because without them, BTC would be seen as a thing for criminals. Let's learn to be grateful even in times of pains and failure.

So, from today, let's not focus on what price it'll hit, but the best time and day it'll pump from the 77th to 80th week, counting from the day of halving.

Yes, have a price target, but from the 77th to 80th week, drop your price target and target the day it'll experience a 7, 10, 12 or more percent pump in a day and sell at least 50-70%, then watch how the remainder of the week pans out and on the 79th week or let's say 80th week and some days, RUN!

That is exactly what is happening to BTC and miners know it.

If we focus on this, we won't be bothered with QE, QT, FOMC meeting, war, report about this and that, etc.

Just wake up from the 75th week and move your BTC to an exchange and from the 77th to 80th week, you start selling and that's all.

Whatever happens after that, you won't regret! Don't be greedy! Keep the Dollar till No-DJ of bear market and buy again or enter some small shorts that if you lose, it won't affect you. Rinse and repeat.

Bear market doesn't mean we'll dump to 89% immediately, but it's a pump and dump situation.

We go up more in a bear market than we go done, but not above the top price.

Also, in a bull market, we down more than we go up, but not below bear market price.

This is for BTC only. As you know, if alt season happens, which may not, BTC could do its regular pump and dump while alts pump, but going above 80th week price, is what hasn't been recorded in crypto history yet. Maybe, as they always say, this time is different!

Exact halving to top durations in weeks for every cycle.

By default, it must be 77-80 weeks and that is 1 year and 5 months (plus or minus 1 month).

1. 2012 Halving → 2013 Top
Halving: 28 Nov 2012
Top: 4 Dec 2013
Days: 371
Weeks: 53 weeks exactly

2. 2016 Halving → 2017 Top
Halving: 9 Jul 2016
Top: 16 Dec 2017
Days: 525
Weeks: 75 weeks


3. 2020 Halving → 2021 Top
Halving: 11 May 2020
Top: 10 Nov 2021
Days: 548
Weeks: 78.28 weeks
(≈ 78 weeks, 2 days)

4. 2024 Halving → 2025 Top (126k)

Using the mid-range top date: 10 Oct 2025
Halving: 20 Apr 2024
Top: 10 Oct 2025
Days: 538
Weeks: 76.85 weeks
(≈ 76 weeks, 6 days)


Final Summary

Cycle to Weeks from Halving

Only the first cycle (2012→2013) topped early. The last three cycles all top within 75–80 weeks, matching 77–80 week rule almost perfectly.


So...

First halving happened on 28 November 2012 at a Bitcoin price of about $12.35.
The cycle top after this halving was on 4 December 2013, when Bitcoin reached about $1,151.17.
This is about a 93.2× pump, which equals roughly +9,220%.

Second halving happened on 9 July 2016 at a Bitcoin price of about $663.
The top that followed occurred on 16 December 2017, with Bitcoin reaching about $19,497.
This is about a 29.4× pump, which equals roughly +2,840%.

Third halving happened on 11 May 2020 at a price of about $8,755.
The top came on 10 November 2021, when Bitcoin reached about $69,044.
This is about a 7.89× pump, which equals roughly +689%.

Fourth halving happened on 20 April 2024 at a price of about $64,968.
The top that followed is at $126,000, which happened in early to mid October 2025, approximately around 10 October 2025.
This is about a 1.94× pump, which equals roughly +94%.

Typing...

Bitcoin trading isn’t just numbers.
It’s human psychology and pattern recognition.

Look at the image below.
The red box before the green box, that top red box, is supposed to dump and retest the middle line of the purple box.
And because everyone knows that March usually dumps, what did traders do?
They started shorting early.

That’s exactly when the market movers step in.

When they saw the crowd piling into shorts, they pushed the market upward to liquidate them or force them to close their positions.
That’s why the market pumped and stayed inside the green box for almost four months—to exhaust those traders, frustrate them, and break their conviction.

Then after the green box—notice how small it is—the next box is the red September box.
And September, almost every year since Bitcoin’s existence, tends to dump and retest January’s top.
It’s a market culture.
A psychological rhythm that repeats.

But once too many people recognize that rhythm, the market makers change it.
They adjust the pattern.
They trap traders inside a position for weeks or months until they finally give up and close at a loss.
That is their game.

When you understand that psychology,
when you apply risk management,
and when you wait for a proper entry,
you stop being the target.

Most traders move like a herd.
They don’t understand the psychological layer.
They FOMO in, they’re desperate to make money, and they fall for the same traps every cycle.
That’s why history keeps repeating.

But if you understand the pattern,
and you also prepare for the opposite of the pattern when the market is ready to shift,
you stay ahead of 99% of everyone.

The method I spoke about above is more like a snitch. The previous big box and red box ALWAYS expose what will happen in the following big or red box. It's as if you're trading on a loop. And during bear market, you invert your chart and still trade as if it's a bull market and the rules still work.

So, with it, there is no bull or bear market, but "box market."

The main reason I do all these research is because I want to convert tedious technical analysis to digestible theories where almost anyone can apply them and trade without knowing about doji, hammer head, bearish divergence and all those terms.

I want to remove overthinking from trading and introduce a system that makes impatient people automatically become patient by default.

Next year, if you learn and master this SITM and focus on it, you'll make more money than most. Also, those cluttered charts you see there have secrets better than SiTM, but that's a story for another day. If you want the full gist, click like.

Valwezzy:
Done!
But what does it mean?

10 years later, I'll talk about it, but let me give you a hint. There is a colour coding I use called Rugby-who
red,
ultra-violet (purple),
green,
blue,
yellow,
white,
honeydew and
orange

Since I came into crypto 5+ years ago, I noticed some months have a similar characteristic and always dump in some years, but don't in other years, hence I came up with ReSeBuBum, but to keep thing in a new order since I love to be organized hierarchical, I now call it BuBumReSel for a reason.

Long story short, I noticed FAMAMS always dump in most occasions, hence, I put them in red box, see images below.

I divided the other months by RUGBY-WHO colours. Some are 4 months grouped together while others are 5 or 6 months. Each of these groups are divided by one month from the FAMAMS family (Feb, August, March, August, March, Sept.) Yes, ignore the repetition — it's correct. Those months are mostly dangerous, though sometimes they pump because people short them as they anticipate a dump. Feb isn't dangerous, but there is a reason it's there.

I came up with a mathematical solution on how to know the height of each box ahead of time from the lowest price of the weekly candle.

I discovered a lot of things a spirit keeps telling me not to share and one of them out of the many is SITM (sweet in the...) I gave it that name to be memorable. The human mind is too corrupt and such are easily recalled.

Not to bore you with details, look at each of the boxes below — I knew their heights even before the weekly candle filled them up and I knew how low they'll dump using SITM.

From each box, zoom it, you'll see there is a dash arrow line from the middle bearing the same colour as the box. The next box ALWAYS retest the middle of the previous box, hence the name. Magic, right? That's what research gives you and the info doesn't exist anywhere online or offline.

From 2011, it has been 90% or more correct. The two or three times it couldn't go low to retest SITM, there was a reason and you'll even know it ahead of time if you read my full documentary of this secret. Una no like to read, so I kept all these things to myself. And Nairaland too dey ban people, hence I can't really post something detailed.

Today, SITM just did it too. Look at that white box and the dotted arrow line from the middle of the previous yellow box, it came down to tap it and wick down and it has been doing it since the existence of BTC in every box. I call it BOXnalysis.

Sadly, BTC lasts 77 to 80 weeks to hit market top after halving (which is about 1 year and 6 months.)

Halving happened on the 20th of April, 2024 and 77 weeks from that day is 11th of October, 2025. One of the reasons that crash happened. Some miners dumped hard. While 80 weeks is 1st of November.


With this info, the cycle is over, but we're only using hopium to survive because we are hoping CZ and co will pump it to liquidate early shorts, then it dumps 25% in a single day after the parabolic pump. That's always how they play the game. Maybe, they're waiting for more short before they do it.

By the way, in my personal findings, there are two to three tops. The yellow top, the cycle top and the liquation top. Any of the tops is enough for someone who bought in 2022 and isn't greedy. Yes, QT and fed messed the cycle up, but it was still good to have a different perspective of how things would be without QE.

So, the 4 year halving cycle has always been accurate because it's based on code inside the blockchain.

Did you understand the post? In the image, look at the blue arrows — that's the middle of previous boxes that were retested.