₦airaland Forum

SITM (Sweet In The...)

Someone should quote this post because I'll reference it 10 years later. It has a meaning.

This is why it's good to build your strategy in a way you'll pray for lower prices even after you've bought at the right price. This makes you not to panic, but excited when it comes down to scare people. BTC is currently at 100.2k and at -3.5%. I'll only take action the day it does -7% or more.

Build a strategy that helps you see the market in hierarchical structure and prepare for all of them.

1. Biggest Picture: 4 Year Cycle
2. Bigger Picture: 1 Year Cycle
3. Big Picture: 6 Month Cycle

4. Small Picture: 2-3 Month Cycle
5. Smaller Picture: 1 Month Cycle
6. Smallest Picture: 1 Week Cycle
7. *Day Trading
8. *Scalp Trading


When you have an idea of the overall market, the biggest picture, you have an advantage over others. It makes you have a long-term plan, alongside with your short-term plans.

Unfortunately, most people in this industry only focus on number 7 and 8.

I have studied the chart and identified all the time to buy or trade in all the list I made above.

Example is #1, the 4 year cycle. In the images below, you'll notice in the 4 year cycle, there are only "2 heavy buying opportunities" in each cycle, then there are 2-3 and sometimes 4 "top-up" opportunities if you missed the 2 heavy and best buying opportunities of the 4 year cycle.

Now, imagine you prepared ahead of time for these opportunities and you load up heavily when they arrive. In just 3-4 years, you'll make more money than most degens.

Each of the images is 4 years and the red is the 2 buying opportunities and it usually has a high volume too. The blue arrows are the top-up for late comers of the cycle.

Now you have a picture of the 4 year cycle, the next is to also know how the 1 year cycle works and when is the best time(s) to buy and so on.

If you know all these things ahead of time, you'll be relaxed when others are panicking.

Each cycle repeats almost exactly! With this kind of info, why not you stay prepared instead of desperate?

Luck is when preparedness meets opportunity.

SON (Sept, Oct. Nov.) Before parabolic pump in Sell Year, one of the months of SON will retest the top or bottom price of June to pledge allegiance, else no show.

2013 and 2025 retested the bottom price of June monthly candle while 2017 and 2021 cycle retested the top price of June.

I just wanted to tell you a little history even though it doesn't repeat, but most times rhymes.

Maybe, we'll experience a parabolic pump in late November or early December.

Note: I'm referring to only BTC.

I long when there is chaos and when no one wants to long. All my criteria were met.

Though, this is a risky trade cuz it's happening at the end of bull market, but who doesn't take risks never succeeds. Entry is 90% of your victory.

Even with the best risk management, a poor entry will destroy your account.

I have bought at the right time, but I'm still praying for lower. It's just psychology.

Knowing you have backups give you another layer of confidence should unexpected black swan happens.

More update soon.

The worst that can happen is 89-88k, but let's consolidate for now till the d...th cross happens.

Almost A+ setup.

My number 1 rule and it works. -5%, -7% and -12% in a day and at least 1 billion Dollar in liquidation.

-7% is a sweet spot, then -10 to -12% dump in a day is a great catch.

You only do this when you already know the direction of the general market and the period of the 4 year cycle we're in.

You don't do this blindly, else you're catching a falling knife and it'll keep going down and you'll begin to think the method doesn't work.


Crypto is all about patience and being in USDT even of it'll take months or years of waiting until your setup appears.

This is just A setup, so on the 10th to 14th of November, we might go for A+, but if lots of longs enter the market, they'll keep dumping with periodic pumps to liquidate them. BTC will start acting like alt because all degens are on it now, so we might even start seeing 21% dump in a day.

Note: I no longer follow macros and this helps remove noise — I follow the 1. 4 year cycle
2. history
3. risk management
4. the chart
5. human psychology

Any other thing, I see it as distraction and this keeps me level-headed.

I no longer panic because I analyse my chart from 1 month tf to 1 week, then 1 day. I prepare for these timeframes, especially 1 week and 1 month and it lets me prepare for black swan and eventualities.

Please, try and get to a stage you make 100% of your decisions or at least 98% and whatever gurus post on social media never dissuade you.

I'm only sharing.

I checked my old friend and he told me A setup of around 101.5k we hit on the 10th is within range.

Are we going for A+? I have no idea. All I know is, my best setups are A, A+ and No-DJ.

If we go below A+, the cycle is over and that means team October won. Even if the cycle is over, we'll still pump back and stay inside the bear market green channel I regularly posted.

So, there is nothing to fear for BTC — it's alts that'll be hit.

The market rewards a diligent specialist.

Team October, 2025.

Using the method I posted in 2024, you're to sell on Oct 5th and 25th. What was the price of BTC on those days?

Oct 5th was 125k-126k (Top of October)
Oct 25th was 111k -115k.

Why the corrections? D** th cross is happening in few days time. Though, it might be a fake out.

What is a kpai cross? It's when the 50 SMA, blue line, goes below 200 SMA, red line.

What happens when kpai cross occurs? Market dumps, then pumps, then corrects days or weeks later.

What about golden cross? It's when that 50 SMA that went down starts going back up. What happen? Market will pump, then dumps on the day it crosses in most cases, then slowly starts gaining strength to go up.

When it happens matters. This is why you need to understand the 4 year cycle, Re-se-bu-bum.

One year ago, 2024, exactly in November, I projected October to be 120k to 130k. Did we achieve it? Yes. October hit 126k, which is within the range of 120-130k.

Team October, I hope you've sold. I'm Team November and mostly December, so I'm holding my breath. I hope I won't regret for not joining Team O.

This was the post:

Choose Your Team: Bitcoin Bull Run Peaks and Details

While I await the 20 likes and contemplate if is should expose it, let me share another one I discovered from analyzing the chart as if my life depended on it.

I noticed a relationship between the date of the year of each Sell Year. For newbies who are new to this thread, Sell Years are part of the 4 year cycle. It's the year each cycle peaks, like 2013, 2017, 2021 and next is 2025.

Market usually picks in October, November or December and it may even do a pump in January, the following year. It's called the dead cat bounces.

With this information, I thoroughly researched the chart and noticed December is the best month to sell, but November and October have done great too, so I included all the months in my analysis and found out a good selling date from the last two digit of the year of that bullrun's peak.

There was a bullrun peak in 2013, right?

Now, the last digit of 2013 is 3 and a combination of second to last digit is 13. Therefore, sell 50% of your BTC on the 3rd and the 40% on the 13th. Then keep 10% incase of unforeseen magic even though the parabolic pump seems to be exhausted.

"Now, which month should I sell?" You asked.

Your RSI, StochRSI, Fear & Greed Index and other indicators will tell you, but you'll need to choose a month, a team and a date. Luckily, the year of the bullrun is the date.

We have

Team O (October)
Team N (November)
Team D (December)
Team J (January, the following year).

For me, I'm team D as first choice, Team J, my second choice and Team N, my third choice.

The reason you should choose a team is so that you'll study how your team behaves and this will help you not to panic-sell in other people's team because you know how their team also behaves in price action.

From my real-life research, Team D has the best win rate, but the riskiest because you'll be holding your breath whenever that market is red for a day as you pray for it not to crash in October or November. 

After I gathered all my info, I put it on GPT to do some analysis.

Remember, I'm mainly Team D and maybe, Team J, and Team N.

As a Team D member...

In 2013, I'll should've sold some on the 3rd of December and some on the 13th of December.

In 2017, I should've sold some on the 7th of December and some on the 17th. Why 7th and 17th? Because it's derived from 2017 and same applies to 2021 ans the rest of bullrun peak year.

In 2021, I should've sold some on the 1st of December and some on the 21st of December.

If I had sold at those prices, I sold at the best or second to the best prices. Though, in 2021, Team October won, followed by Team November. My lovely Team December took third postion, but it's still good at 57-59k.

Here is the prices and info for your perusal. After you gone through it, choose your team and if you don't mind, why?

2013 BULL RUN

Top Price: ~$1,165
Happened on: Monday, December 2, 2013

2013 DETAILS:

October 3, 2013: ~$129
October 13, 2013: ~$138 ((Total: 267)

November 3, 2013: ~$204
November 13, 2013: ~$331 (Total: 535)

December 3, 2013: ~$1,048
December 13, 2013: ~$872 (Total: 1920)

January 3, 2014: ~$833
January 13, 2014: ~$860 (Total: 1693)

WINNER: Team December
Runner up: Team J

2017 BULL RUN

Top Price: ~$19,665
Happened on: Sunday, December 17, 2017

2017 DETAILS:

October 7, 2017: ~$4,400
October 17, 2017: ~$5,600 (Total: 10000)

November 7, 2017: ~$7,100
November 17, 2017: ~$7,800 (Total: 14900)

December 7, 2017: ~$14,600
December 17, 2017: ~$19,000 (Total: 33600)

January 7, 2018: ~$17,300
January 17, 2018: ~$11,000 (Total: 28000)

WINNER: Team December
Runner up: Team J

2021 BULL RUN

Top Price: ~$69,045
Happened on: Wednesday, November 10, 2021

2021 DETAILS:

October 1, 2021: ~$43,900
October 21, 2021: ~$65,000 (Total: 108,900)

November 1, 2021: ~$61,000
November 21, 2021: ~$58,200 (Total: 119200)

December 1, 2021: ~$57,000
December 21, 2021: ~$48,800 (Total: 105800)

January 1, 2022: ~$46,300
January 21, 2022: ~$38,500

WINNER: Team November
Runner up: Team October.

My team took 3rd postion. First time wey we dey carry last.

[b]2025 PROJECTION

Top Price: ~195k (projected)
Maybe happen on: Monday, December 15, 2025 (hypothetical, based on prior cycles peaking mid-December)

PROJECTION FOR 2025

October 5, 2025: ~120k
October 25, 2025: ~130k

November 5, 2025: ~145k
November 25, 2025: ~155k

December 5, 2025: ~175k
December 25, 2025: ~190k

January 5, 2026: ~185k
January 25, 2026: ~160k

For 2025, I just hit my ass and came up with the number 195k — it's not based on any indicator or calculation. I just needed a value to use, so it's just a guess.

Choose your team and if you don't mind, why do you prefer the team?

Who remembered my November 2024 post? Where I did a deep research on when to sell and we all belonged to different teams.

Seanwilliam, I hope you remembered your team?

I'll do a recap of that post and the strategy we used.

Here is a link to read the full post: https://www.nairaland.com/6318352/crypto-currency-investors-thread/4013#132886886

Typing...

This green channel? We never close a weekly candle below it the moment we're fully inside. So, use it to console yourself and know that there is still 2-3 months to the upside, then you switch to your bear market strategy while using that channel as a guide. If it could be true in the past 3 cycles, we're expecting it to be true again or at least 90% true.

Everyone has access to the chart and you already know how to go about it.


The 4 year cycle is in play as it has always been.

Bmaster:
They are the first class citizens,in their own little understanding, they're feeling like the peacocks, can't you see the pride in them ?

They know last last,nothing will happen to them.


There was a country

First class: Cow
Second class: Fula...
Third class: Haus...
Fourth class: Yoru...
Fifth class: N'Delta
Sixth class: Igb...
Seventh class: Add yours

This is how he government grades us.

armadeo:
Even currently ogs dey here am for btc hand.

Meanwhile I didn't even look this far. You're very right. When everyone jumps into btc the owners will play the exact same game they've played with alts.

Nice insight.

P.s alts still going home ( as in inside house ) because we're in the compound already

Lol, 5% left and it must happen, else no alt season.

What I'm about to post does not mean it'll happen, but I follow it religiously.

I have studied market pumps and dumps and I paid attention to the daily and weekly percentage moves and it's always 5, 7, 12, and 21% max per day. For weekly, it's total of 25 or 55%.

So, I built a calculator to help me do the math faster.

My rule is, I enter only when my criteria is met and one of them is: 5, 7 or 12% dump in a day — at least 7% before I take action and my iTrend indicator must approve it by telling me if it's a B, B+, A or A+ setup. A and A+ are the best.

When BTC went to 101.5k this month from 122k, I made a purchase, but guess what? My system is built to buy at the right time, then pray for lower. It's like having a beautiful girlfriend, but you... u know nah. That are even lower standard compared to your woman. You're playing down.

Just imagine buying at the right time, then praying for lower and lower? Does that make sense? No. When people buy, they immediately start praying and wishing for the market to pump as if they own the industry. This is an emotional torture and I don't like it.

I flipped the script by praying for lower because I already have the data of how low it'll go and I have money kept for those prices.

After my first buy, if the market proves stubborn and starts pumping, I get upset because I'm waiting for 2-3 more lowers.

Imagine being upset while your bag is pumping? Yeah, that's the game — you flipped the emotions and whichever direction it goes, it favours you.

This is the type of strategy you should have — where both directions favour you.

In that dump on the 10th, the lowest was 101.5k and minus 5%, 7% or max, 12% from the price is my prayer point. See image below. 35% and 55% are blackswan/bear market range. So, my prayer request is the top 3 corrections.

Will my prayer be answered? 50/50. It's just a wish + strategy to help me get excited when the market is dumping than angry like most people.

Your emotion is IMPORTANT, so build a strategy that puts it under control.

Right now, people are panicking, but iLegend is excited even though he's currently on a long trade. The worst that can happen is loss of money (more experience), not loss of life.

Be strong, everyone — making money is easy, but being patient for the money to arrive is hard.

The market rewards a deligent specialist.

BTC is king.

Info:

This year, infact, on the 10th of October, 2025, even people with 1.5x leverage were liquidated on some alts and some even went to 0.

Everyone already knew alts must go home and some coins will go to zero, but they just didn't like the idea. Crypto doesn't care about what we like or not like.

Some pros that have been in the game with the best strategies for 13 years were liquidated in that altcoin blackswan we experienced. The blackswan was only for alt, not BTC. For BTC, it's a normal healthy correction.

The New Shift: OGs will never ever believe in alts again except the company pay them to promote it.

Newbies of today will be OGs too in 4-8 years and with this experience they had, they'll move to only BTC and maybe, top 5. They'll only rotate when it's the right time and QE has started.

Greed will reduce in alts and move straight to BTC and top 5. There will soon be lots of high leverages on BTC in the coming cycles and guess what? Market makers will haunt all of them down and BTC will start behaving like alts despite institutional involvement.

We'll be seeing regular 12% pump and dump in a day starting from next cycle because of stoploss hunt from degens and this will trigger liquation cascade.

Best Practice: Outline all the years and the months dumps mostly happen (like first and second week of Jan, the month of March, April, July, August and Sept) and reserve money for each month.

You need to start trading like an opportunist. You wait for tears and blood on the floor before you take action and after that, still have backups. This is what always save me. That is the way to go and that is how I have been doing it this cycle.

So, BTC will be crowded next cycle and I like it.

There is something I did to my BTC chart that I regret not doing early. I outlined last week of December of every year with different colours. December of sell year is dotted white colour.

Then, I identified the week that contains the 20th of June and 20th of July. I used a solid black line for June and dotted black for July.

When you outline your chart like this, you'll begin to see things differently based on the 4 year cycle and lots of patterns and similarities will emerge.

This made me see that 90% of the time, after the line, the next month is January and market usually drops 1st or 2nd week of every January. I call it the hedge week.

Also, on the 20th of June or 20th of July, same thing usually happens in most cases, so it's another hedge week.

I would've loved to explain what I discovered, but you guys don't like detailed posts, so I'll end it here.

Summary: There is nothing new in BTC — it's just repeating the same thing over and over with a little twist (manipulation), but most people don't pay attention to details.

As simple as ABC.

Nothing goes in a straight line.

BTC is the king and it's the reason this industry exists. Know that and you'll be happy. Whatever strategy you use, factor black swan into it to avoid being out of cash when everyone is rekt.

I did what I'm about to teach you with a bigger phone, but later realized these tiny and cheap Android phones with latest OS is the best for this.

Buy two of these tiny cheap phones, take one of them to a phone repair guys to open it and remove or desolder the SIM and communication line, especially hotspot/WiFi.

When it's done, your SIM slot won't work and your phone can't hotspot, use WiFi or any of such. Before this, install Trust wallet — it'll work and create wallets without internet.

This now means your tiny phone is a cold wallet and can never have access to the internet.


Typing...

I saw a trending story about a man who lost $3 million worth of XRP from a cold wallet he’d been saving with his wife since 2017. When I saw that, I said to myself — I need to share a few tips that can definitely help you protect yourself. They’re simple, but trust me — they’re highly effective.

Some outlets are saying he updated his software from a malicious pop-up and others are saying different things. Don't worry, my tip will help you overcome this.

Pay attention! Had I known is the last comment of a...

Typing...

I'm supposed to deliver a lecture on the 20th of October, but let me keep it till 4th or 10th of November to get extra data.

I hope you guys know on the the second week of November, from 10th to 15th, one of those days in that range, there will be a 5,7 or 12% dump and if we survive it, we're guaranteed of a parabolic pump in December, but if we don't, the cycle is over.

BTC is king.

Hadizometer:
I just pity those whom ILegend gave hope on Altseason with his meaningless posts

Rest! Even in my absence, you guys always want to mention my name whenever you want to show your frustration.

I always preached alts going home and any alt you buy, sell whenever you see profit and wait till it goes home. I'm 98% more into BTC and sometimes ETH and Sol. The only alts I touched in a long time were Aster, Giggle and two others and I have left with profit and kept one of them.

Even when alts went home, I said it's not over yet, we have 5% more downside. Those who bought at the bottom when alt went home made profit.

My trading strategy uses the 4 year cycle, so I never panic during dumps because they hardly affect me.

Also, QT hasn't stopped and QE hasn't started. So, why are you accusing me wrongly just to feel better? Who never abuse or accuse me no dey ever dey happy.

Why always me? Maybe, I'm too imposing and authoritative — I won't change, anyway. Haha.

My dear, rest and find a way to master your strategy so that you'll be the one making 100% of your decisions without being influenced by what you read online. I'm at that stage and you should try to be too and don't blame iLẹ̄gendd for your predicaments.

Verbtips:
sir what's ur thought about this,do think btc will top at 154k

Around that range has been my first choice.

GRACEGLORY:
Do you still believe that the market cycle is four years long, iLegendd? BTC may be in a new cycle that differs from the traditional four-year cycle due to the recent flush. Bitcoin might be in a megacycle perhaps. The cycle is being prolonged, may be because of adoption. This cycle may lapse till December 2026.
I have no doubt, but a conviction that Bitcoin will decline by at least 30-35%. and may need to light up at least 64% BTC. D before that drop to 30%.

I know the 4 year cycle is coded into the Blockchain, but let me ask the oracle of our time for some input.

Pay attention to the part that said, "It can't be skipped or delayed."

Now, let's talk about USDT dominance, the most important or second most important chart.

Look at the white arrow. When we get to the purple line in No-DJ (Nov, Dec. or Jan) the cycle is over.

Trading BTC is actually easy and fun if you're organized and strategic, but YouTube gurus try to complicate it just to keep churning out videos to help with their YouTube monetisation.

Don't forget, we're almost inside the two parallel green channels, which serves as bear market zone. The moment we get fully inside, we're not going above or below it till December of 2026.

That channel is where the real money is made and by that time, all the degens have lost interest in crypto and some licking their wounds while the real gangsters make generational wealth shorting the market.

I'll post instructions on how to trade bear market using that green channel.

I hate to show this in my chart because it looks a bit clustered — and yes, that may seem unprofessional — but the truth is, it works. It has worked since 2010.

Now, my Ethereum and Solana predictions were spot-on, but Bitcoin? Not quite. In one of my posts, I believe around September, I mentioned that we were likely going to dump either to the top of June’s monthly candle or to the bottom of June. But after deeper research, I adjusted that range — from the top of June to the bottom of May.

If you check the chart, you’ll see it clearly:

Top of June marked with a white parallel channel,

Bottom of June with a green line,

Bottom of May with a yellow line.

Eventually, I invalidated the bottom of June and decided to go with the bottom of May as my final projection. Unfortunately, the crash I anticipated for September (a mirror of 2013) got delayed by about 7–10 days — and that move unfolded in October instead.

However, we couldn’t quite reach the bottom of June monthly candle. The level was around $99.5K, and we got as close as $101.5K — roughly a $2K difference.

So, I’ll take responsibility for that miss. I'm such a failure! My Solana and Ethereum calls worked perfectly, but Bitcoin only came 90-98% or I'd say it was a 50–50 prediction — and for that, I apologize for the inaccuracy.

Look at that yellow arrow pointing down, that's where we stopped.