₦airaland Forum

Impenia:
My view on AUDCAD
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There's a chance price could drop back to that "Support" to make a 3rd test. This is likely to give the retail universe a false sense of security to buy from that "Strong Support". What could then happen here is for smart money to drive price further down to do a liquidity raid on all those stop losses below there. If that happens, I'll be targeting to buy from the 0.88 handle.
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This is a mere opinion and it's highly speculative.

Still keeping an eye on this. Price already back to retest the "Support" yet again. Still hoping for a drop down to the 0.88 handle.

ejosh4:
I am beginning to doubt you. You are already speaking too much to gain validation. Those traders u are painting yourself as don't have time for small talks.. I might be wrong though, but you are 83% fake

83% is a very generous & considerate rating.

infofirst:
I will be watching that level too. Market is just interesting lately. Usdjpy going up and gold up. Haba. The gold up concern make me chill out of my uj buy because I do not expect both in same direction. Now uj refused to come down for me to re-enter.

Yeah, very strange activity going on across markets. UJ up, Gold up, Indices up. Seems correlation have decoupled. Something will breakout, not sure which.

infofirst:
My uj buy tp is 111.75. I expect price to play up to 111.9*** but man everything is Kalo Kalo now in @saxy4c language. Best thing is to trade with the least possible lot. So as to be able to trade better trading days ahead.
This period is just what it is, it will pass. Market only trying to weed out the gamblers.

Damn! That's some ambitious target. But very likely, especially if Gold drops hard.

Impenia:
Taking a small risk on the micro H&S structure...entry on the right shoulder at 1611. But, of course, this is a high risk trade where I'd have to lock it at BE immediately.

Looking good. Trade is Risk-Free. Let's see if we can grab a quick +50 pips.

I'm looking to short UJ around 110.7 - 111.0. There's an unsquared GAP around the 111.0 psychological handle.

infofirst:
Big time. Now am watching ecad and looking for likely level to reverse. Man, like 12 days straight bear. Who do euro like this?

BTW, thanks for talking me out of EC. Took a 3 pips loss. Now waiting to hunt around 1.425 & 1.420. Let's see what CAD data prints during NY session.

infofirst:
Infact. I will patiently be doing in and out. I hope we do not miss the up with this drama.

They are sure playing us ...maybe to shakeout the weak buyers. But patience is key to minimize DD and have a good RR entry.

infofirst:
Price shy of the 1610. Patiently waiting. Factual fact stated

Taking a small risk on the micro H&S structure...entry on the right shoulder at 1611. But, of course, this is a high risk trade where I'd have to lock it at BE immediately.

Impenia:
Potential Bear Flag on EU. Not that I'm interested in shorting this pair, but this is merely giving a reason to delay my buys. I think we could very well see 1.075 or even 1.070. Waiting to see what FOMC brings.

And there she goes!

Potential Bear Flag on EU. Not that I'm interested in shorting this pair, but this is merely giving a reason to delay my buys. I think we could very well see 1.075 or even 1.070. Waiting to see what FOMC brings.

infofirst:
My oil bullish bias will not want me to trade against cad yet. Ucad sell and waiting still on ecad.

Good point on the Oil bias. I might have to reassess that EURCAD Trade.

I'm taking a bet here on EURCAD. Seeing a potential Rail Road Track right at the 1.43 psychological handle.

I will attempt to short Gold if it gets to 1613. That's around 20 pips above the 1610 high. Most folks will try to short exactly at the 1610 level, so I expect a bit of a push higher for Stop Hunt first. Also that price level is just around today's ADR High and this week's AWR High.

The market has no regards for my analysis. It could turn before getting there or even blow past it like a rocket. Proper MM is key.

Impenia:
Equal highs on Gold. Are they gonna break that to hunt liquidity above? Who knows!

Indeed! Just as we suspected. Equal highs/lows usually have a lot of liquidity above/below them. MMs know the retail universe like to sell/buy from those levels, so they go hunting for liquidity (retail SLs). Don't take my word for it, I'm just guessing.

Skanas:
Thanks Brotherly....I appreciate

I get to miss a number of trades with that outlook but that's a tradeoff I'm willing to make.

Skanas:
Pls how do you approach this liquidity hunt stuff by MM to avoid beaten / avoid price going ur way without you....
Pls add ur view with chart below...

Difficult to predict what MMs will do with any level of certainty.

A general rule of thumb for me is - if I see a double top/bottom and I expect price to reverse, but then price refuses to make any decent pullback but rather goes back to make a 3rd or more retest on the same level, then I become alert of a potential break (stop hunt). Doesn't always work, but it saves me a lot.

In this case of your screenshot, EG is just making a double bottom, so it's fair to expect a W Bounce. However, if you see price coming back to the level again, then you probably need to become defensive of your position.

Impenia:
Equal highs on Gold. Are they gonna break that to hunt liquidity above? Who knows!

Are we breaking higher? Got a pending sell limit order @ 1613.

Equal highs on Gold. Are they gonna break that to hunt liquidity above? Who knows!

Impenia:
Something to keep in mind is that the USD Index (DXY) still has some room up north to travel towards that "Resistance". This could send XXXUSD pairs lower.

DXY update. Price now almost reaching the resistance as earlier anticipated. XXXUSD longs might soon become an attractive proposition

Keep in mind, though, that today is FOMC meeting. There's also x3 swap today, which tends to make high yielding currencies (like USD) strengthen.

saxy4c:
Whether your analysis is 20% correct or 90% on point, price will still go either way. That's what this is all about, either account preservation when wrong or increase in balance when right.
EUR is a bloody SCAM!

It's really not about analysis being right or wrong. It's more about having a structured and consistent way of executing trades in a manner that gives an EDGE. After that, it's all about letting the probabilities play out.

After analysis is done, it's up to the markets to either validate or invalidate the analysis.

Something to keep in mind is that the USD Index (DXY) still has some room up north to travel towards that "Resistance". This could send XXXUSD pairs lower.

infofirst:
That looks safer in my view too. I was looking at 0.8330.

Euro must give us the pips. The plan remains same.

Tbh, EUR is a tricky one. From a Fundamentals standpoint, the currency looks weak (especially with the abysmal German ZEW data today). From a Sentiments standpoint, the retail positioning I posted earlier is a recipe for further downside. There's also Technical reasons to support further downside.

I really can't predict this right now, as it can go either way. So, in the meantime, I'll just adopt one of my mottos - "When in doubt, stay action"

Too much retail (dumb) money buying EUR pairs atm. This is usually not a good sign, as SM willtypically try to push these further down to trigger SLs and margin calls before reversing.

EUR pairs actually seem "oversold" but buying requires real tactical plays and strict money management.

voraz:
Looks like there's too much downside momentum.

I'm inclined to agree. Might just hold off on this one till price drops to my initial target (0.8325).

Impenia:
Will attempt to buy NZDUSD if it drops to the 78.6% fib ret. That area is also a daily Demand Zone.

Tempting...

Closed my earlier position at the swing point (confluence with 200 EMA). Looking to to take another stab if it drops to 1.0803.

EURCHF...not quite ideal but I'm taking a bet here on long. Price could still drop to the 1.06 handle.

infofirst:
Waiting there too.

Hopefully eu is good to show some corrections as predicted. You are right with the gap filing.

Wetin you dey do for bet thread since bro? Welcome to where you belong

I used this moniker to frolick in the betting thread...lol. Took a second Gold sell and closed both with net breakeven. Waiting now to see what happens around 1610.

Impenia:
Gold

Price now at $1600. Taking a small risky sell here. Ultimate sell point is $1610.

PipMarshall:
Totally out of sync with the market.

It's unreal.

It's also alright. It's why we say people should trade responsibly. Keeps you well in the game even after series of losses. And your capital is more or less preserved.

I am going on exile again till I get back in sync.

My aim here is to add value to people, NOT make them lose money.

If you'd like to join a small (FREE) Telegram group of elite traders to share your ideas (and also learn from others), feel free to hit me up.