₦airaland Forum

GreenandGold:
It seems like this is the only way to survive being bullied by the West.

Oil 0%
Nuke 100%

Perfect combination to keep you safe from some FREEDOM!

Lurker4Long:
...

I think we’re actually talking past each other a bit, you’re describing export competitiveness, not currency valuation, and those aren’t the same thing.

Yes, South Africa competes with other EM exporters and yes, the Rand is used as a proxy and “whipping boy” in EM baskets. But that explains volatility, not fair value.

If the Rand were genuinely overvalued below R14/$, we would have seen:

sustained import dominance,consumption-led growth, and capital inflows chasing a “cheap imports” story.

Instead, since 2009 (and particularly under Jacob Zuma), what we actually saw was:

capital flight, collapsing investment, and a rising risk premium completely disconnected from productivity or terms of trade. That is risk discounting, not equilibrium pricing.

Being an “export economy” also doesn’t mean a weak currency is correct — it just means it’s helpful to exporters. Germany, Australia, Chile, Canada all export heavily without needing structurally weak currencies. If competitiveness requires R18–20/$, that’s not efficiency, it’s a subsidy via currency debasement.

On the EM-peer point: the fact that the Rand weakens more than peers in bad times and strengthens less than peers in good times is actually evidence of undervaluation, not overvaluation. Liquidity and tradability explain overshooting, not fair value.

And the R18–20 “ideal range” may feel balanced tactically, but strategically it locks SA into:

imported inflation, higher capex costs, weak industrialisation, and permanent commodity dependence.

That’s a low-growth equilibrium, not a healthy one.

So yes, we agree the post 2009 damage under the African National Congress crushed credibility. But the conclusion is the opposite of yours:

The Rand didn’t weaken because R14 was too strong, it weakened because South Africa became too risky.

That means for much of the last 15 years, the Rand has traded below its economic value, even if exporters have benefited from that weakness.

A weak Rand may be useful.
That doesn’t make it fairly valued

Lurker4Long:
The Rand at R7 to the dollar was massively over-valued and a lingering consequence of the Apartheid siege economy which effectively ran 2 exchange rates and manipulated the value of the currency.
Every single decent economist will tell you the ideal rate for the Rand is around R18-R20 to the dollar. This is because we are an exporting economy and at that range, our goods are cheap enough to compete with our peers.
Our major imports are oil and machinery, and are easily affordable at that range, provided that the price of crude doesn't exceed $100.
If we didn't make stuff and relied on imports, then yes, a strong Rand would be an imperative. I do not mind a weaker rand forcing me to pay more in US$ terms for my overseas holidays, because it also means VW in the US will buy more parts from my mate who employs 500 people in PE, rather than from Australia or Europe.

You're right that our economy needs better stewardship, but the currency is not evidentiary support for that assertion. Especially because its value is solely determined by the market, being one of the world's most traded currencies.
Perhaps if you highlighted 4 or 5 worsening indices/areas of the SA economy that point toward "crisis", I'd be better able to respond.

I agree, except I wouldn't say the rand has ever been overvalued in fact for the good part of 15 years its been one of the most undervalued currencies in the world.

I would also say there is definitely an improvement on all fronts of our economy, probably not as drastic as what we want but we are moving in the right direction.

A bit of topic, can you explain to me how Groenewald has now become the new social media President?? like where did that come from?? PS personally I think Groenewald would make a very good president and his performance as a Minister speaks volumes.

Certain policies that I think appeal to his sudden popularity(although I'm very suspicion, like Bell Potinger suspicious) Calls to bring back the death penalty, very strong stance on illegal immigrants and border control, seen as an anti corruption hero, performance as the minister of correctional services, people are so gatvol for the ANC they will vote FF+ to make a point

Things that should hurt his campaign wrt to black voters but seems to be ignored, The FF+ is unapologetically a minority Afrikaner party, strongly against EWC, Strongly against BEE, strongly for the right of self determination(probably will actually get some Zulu support for this) especially for Afrikaners, Free Market capitalists, for privatization of SOEs

Seems like people just want to get so far away from the ANC they want to vote for the party that is the least like the ANC

GreenandGold:
Jewish/Boer false flag operations have started in time for the G20 summit... Just like I predicted

I pray one day people would just use logic instead of following their ideology blindly.

Here are the cold hard facts, is there a genocide against whites in SA? , No.... Did Afriforum/Solidaritiet say there is... Also No, they have always said the events happening could lead up to a genocide but use the phrase provocatively. Why are Afriforum in USA, well they are a minority civil rights group that looks after the civil rights of white Afrikaners(yeah I know evil, how can white people have a civil rights group... They are white), they went to advocate for a minority group because 1 there are laws, many in fact that discriminate against white people, desguised as redressing the past injustices, ironically it has had the opposite effect since inequality is worse now than it was in the 70s, their visit to the US also back fired because instead of making life easier for farmers, tarrifs made it worse, and refugee status is definitely not something Afriforum wanted and they find themselves on a slippery slope 2. Farm murders are a real problem (not a genocide but a real problem that government refuses to acknowledge and refuses to give these farming communities the resources in terms of legislation to even defend themselves, why? because of political grandstanding , Farm murders are also committed by almost entirely foreign illegal immigrants, which strangely is ignored by both sides which proves the evil that is politics.

You can fix 50% of SAs problems by just getting rid of illegal immigrants but no, our politicians don't want that, they would rather be divisive blaming apartheid instead of their own failings and the majority fall for it.

The common Afrikaner, Zulu, Xhosa ect ect have a lot more in common in terms of culture, social and religious views than most think.



The simple fact reality is objective, truth is objective and morals are objective.

Don't pick a political side because they are all puppets to the same master

kabe1:
Exactly!!!

I don't know what's so hard to understand.

My bad bru thought you were saying the Gripen deal was bad

Odunayaw:
Uhh you're making his point.

18 supersonic multirole was gotten only $700m more than 24 transonic trainer jets.

He is pointing the discrepancy to show they had a better deal.

ahhhh ok thanks for pointing that out

kabe1:
How is it not comparable?

Because 1 is a supersonic multi role 4.5+ Gen Multi role fighter and the other is a transonic trainer jet.

kabe1:
In comparison, Nigeria is getting 24 M346FA for $1.2B

Not comparable

Lurker4Long:
In other words, the FCC didn't threaten broadcasters under the Dems!

Or GOP

GreenandGold:
Fox News wouldn't exist

CNN still exists...

Lurker4Long:
Name one broadcaster whose broadcast licence was ever threatened by the FCC for speech the Dems didn't like.

FCC denies that they threatened Jimmy Kimmel secondly I was talking generally, we all know what social media was like when you had opposing views to that of the Libs before Trump

GreenandGold:
...and so the dictatorship begins..

Dude lets not act like cancel culture didn't exist under the democrats

Exnavyboy62:
I saw this on Reddit. Saffers or anyone pls identify the rifle.

Vektor R4

Lurker4Long:
Setting up Working on Fire as a dedicated national wildfire fighting programme was a stroke of genius. It allows municipal fire departments to concentrate their resources on localised urban/residential fires and infrastructure, and WoF to bring their air and ground resources when needed. And let's not forget the Volunteer Wildfire Services.
Look how many hiking trails are now closed!

you must also check out the NCC's HotShots

Lurker4Long:
GreenandGold
And then I come home to another fire in Cape Town, this time on the Tokai side of the mountain, and spreading towards Fish Hoek and Kalk Bay. With winter around the corner, I hope it's the last of this fire season.
Thankfully, only 1 vehicle caught alight and 1 firefighter injured. Can't say the same about the wildlife on the mountain.

Our wildfire fire fighters are definitely one of the best if not thee best at what they do in the world.

GreenandGold:
I've seen your picture, and between the two of us, I'm not the one who looks like has down syndrome

Bru, I might look like I have down syndrome ....but unlike you I dont act as if i have an exstra chromosome.

Ad hominems aside, why don't you just admit you didn't read, admit you are blinded by ideology and try to be just a little unbaised and logical for a change.

GreenandGold:
Nonsense, the US has a surplus trade with Singapore, yet they got slapped with those senseless tarrifs.

read and comprehend, Im pointing to the facts provided by the US Government themselves....jeez you are so ideological you can't even realize when i agree with you...fvck you are disappointing....

Anyway what I said was: "tarrifs bad and tarrifs unfair" hope i dumbed it down enough for you to understand

GreenandGold:
Trumpturds in 2024 : Trump will fix the economy, the stock exchange will grow, and food prices will be low on his first day in office.

*** Trump crashes the economy in his first 100 days in office, shrinks 401k savings, food prices rise, and inflation is expected to grow by double digits in the first year.

Trumpturds now: You guys don't understand the master plan.

-----------------------------------

Sounds exactly like cult people when questioned about their doomsday prediction when it doesn't come to pass.

Trump tarrifs aren't even reciprocal they are trade deficit divided by imposed tariffs, SA doesn't even come close to tarrifing 60% on US imports I believe we average around 10% and now we are being tarrifed @ 30%

Any as I've mentioned before choosing sides and calling names like trumpturds or libtards doesn't scream intelligence stay logical, dont be an ideologue.

Faithful007:
Not everything Trump does is bad or stupid. These are reciprocal tariffs in response to actions by other countries, some of which are downright silly.

For example, Nigeria. If you try to ship a vehicle from the US to Nigeria, you end up paying tariffs almost the worth of the vehicle before it is cleared from the ports. These costs are passed on to whoever is paying for the vehicle. Some countries have just made it a thing to place ridiculous taxes on Western goods just for the purpose of making money for corrupt government officials.

Considering that US trade with Nigeria, besides oil products, is mostly vehicles, it is not out of place for US to pressure Nigeria to reduce those useless taxes and duties. It would lead to instant benefits for the two countries. Prices of cars in Nigeria will drop, potentially up to 50%, and US vehicle exporters will sell more cars to Nigeria. Majority of Nigerians would like to buy their cars 30-50% cheaper.

The tariffs may not work, but there's a genuine purpose behind them.

What you say wont register guys like @GreenandGold are ideological not logical

andrewza:
When they subersdized by the government is there Profit even real?

I never said there SOEs where not the biggest. One of the largest south African companies is a SOE. China has large non SOE companies that make a lot of money

Example Tencent is one of the worlds largest multi media company thst focus on video games. İt is massive. İt is chinness and a publicaly traded company. So yeah China is not Marxist in any form.

If an SOE runs properly like any company government doesn't have to subsidize it...even in a Marxist country...or should i say especially in a Marxist country

kabe1:
Debunked by whom, their's no evidence that you have more than 6 Operational aircrafts.

I mean you have helicopters grounded in the DRC.

The SANDF is a mess!

Debunked by several sources mate, there were more than 6 hawks at aad alone...

kabe1:
There enough video evidence showing your soldiers raising the white flag and taking pictures with their captors in admiration.

The SANDF is a joke.

Both parties raised white flags to signal a cease fire while the politicians sort out their sh1t, did you see any M23 over run a SANDF base like BH haram does in your own country?

kabe1:
Enough to wipe the floor with the SANDF.

I mean your defeated Soldiers were taking pictures of admiration with M23 commanders. A group Rwanda backs and you think you can withstand Rwanda in any sort of combat.

It would be a helpless shellacking.

The SANDF is a joke!!!

M23 couldn't even take the SANDF base while outnumbering a peacekeeping force 10-1 , Nigeria loses bases in Nigeria to BH weekly

andrewza:
SOE does not need to make a Profit (look at how many are subberserdized) and the Supper wealthy companies in China are not SOEs

even NPOs need to technically make a profit to be sustainable bru!!

Also the biggest companies in China are SOEs

kabe1:
The South African Air Force (SAAF) has all but collapsed, and has no fighting capacity left. It has only six operable military aircraft.


https://www.news24.com/news24/investigations/defenceless-only-six-of-330-sa-air-force-aircraft-in-working-order-20250324



Let me leave this here.

Debunked, completely News24 used sources from 2023 which wasn't even correct then.

andrewza:
I a captetlist society a true one like what marxs wanted you can not have a wealthy class running a for Profit corporation.

China stoped being a commie state years ago.

Where in a Marxist ideology does it state companies can't be for profit?? SOEs literally have to be profitable for a Marxist country to survive...

GreenandGold:
There's a point where you need to leave him alone... You don't need to ruin your reputation, he's not worth it.

Bru, If debating me ruins reputations, maybe the real issue is weak arguments, not me.

andrewza:
Chinna is super capterlist just controlled cappterlism. There lots of companies in china where the sole goal is provit above all

What's your point? All companies that aren't NPOs are for profit even SOEs

Sizzorkay:
please explain why Trump is kicking out black and brown refugees out of the US, even those that's been given temporary status by the previous administration, and want them deported, yet he went out of his way to encourage white south Africans to move into the US, not like they were starving in SA or anything like that, I'm sure there are more vulnerable groups in Africa who aren't white and in dire need for such gesture.
Why kick out over half a million non-white people, only to ask whites from outside to move in?
Or when he referred to African countries and others as sh!t hole countries, while once again going out of his way trying to encourage people from Switzerland etc to move to the US.
He is a racist. No maybe.
This is the same guy who refused to rent apartments to black people right here in nyc.
Not to mention his newspaper ads for reinstatement of the death penalty against five black teenagers, also called the central park 5 case in 1989, he placed ads on several newspapers for this.
All 5 were later exonerated.
he of course want them put to death.

Trump tightened immigration laws across the board, not just for "black and brown" refugees. The US routinely reassesses temporary protected status (TPS), and previous administrations also ended or modified TPS programs.

Afrikaner farmers weren’t granted special status because they were white—they were recognized under refugee laws for perceived targeted violence and land policies, just like other persecuted groups (e.g., Yazidis, Rohingya, Christians in the Middle East).

Saying "others have it worse" is not an argument—refugee policy is case-by-case, not a suffering contest

Unverified, off-the-record comment from a closed-door meeting. Meanwhile, Biden and Clinton both called Africa "hopeless" and "basket cases," but that’s ignored? Convenient.

The point wasn’t race—it was about economic migrants vs. skilled immigrants. The US prioritizes countries with higher-skilled applicants, not based on skin color.

Trump’s ad was about bringing back the death penalty in general, not about those specific five.

The entire city believed they were guilty at the time, and he wasn’t the judge or prosecutor.

Democrats like Biden pushed for the 1994 Crime Bill, which disproportionately targeted black communities—why the selective outrage?

The lawsuit against Trump’s company was settled without an admission of guilt, and similar lawsuits were filed against many landlords at the time.

If this proves he's a racist, then Biden, who praised segregationists and opposed busing, must be worse, right?

This isn't an argument—it’s a laundry list of cherry-picked, contextless accusations to scream "racist" without actual policy analysis.

andrewza:
if a man calls him self a women is it a he or she?

Ok so CCP isn't marxist even though they say they are marxist and are communist.....some logic their bru

QuietMynd:
This is definitely not ordinary

what do you mean?

andrewza:
he signed a order to have white afrikans farmers be dcleaed refugees. Ignoring that there are other groups that farm in south Africa that suffer far more. This is a clear racist act

It’s not racist—refugee status is about perceived persecution, not race. Afrikaner farmers were granted it due to perceived targeted farm attacks and land policies, not because they’re white.

Saying “others have it worse” misses the point—refugee status isn’t a competition. Many groups get asylum for specific threats (Yazidis, Rohingya, Soviet Jews). Were those racist?