₦airaland Forum

rvp20182:
You think they are mad people willing to throw their money away.

1982 - this was the story - prepare to head to Burkina Faso

Buy one for you and your family in Kenya as you'll need it when everything comes to a head next year in Kenya.


Ghana GDP is 80 billion dollars and it total debt is 48 billion dollars, a reduction from 54 billion dollars early this year.
Spending 35% of revenue to service it debt and 30% on compensation leaving 30% to 35% for other govt activities.
With a petroleum fund and a minerals fund to carry out big budget infrastructure funding

rvp20182:
This Bloomerg - mad cow.

By the time Ghana gov regain the trust of both domestic and international investors - you'll probably be too old to remember this conversation.

What is critical now is to fire Nana and hire someone who can try to restore stability and in a decade win back investors.


Bloomberg Africa
@BloombergAfrica
·
21h

Official
Ghana is asking local bondholders to accept losses on interest payments as it restructures its debt to qualify for a loan from the IMF

Ghana will be back on the international bond market in 2 to 3 years time

Everyone knows that Ghana has swapped it domestic debt.

Next excuse for why Kenya keep defaulting

You can't hide your Zoo Kenya gross ineptitude under Ghana debt swap

rvp20182:
Mad cow - try to project their economic mess around - it's just getting started

How is that me projecting
These figures are not from me, they are from Bloomberg
Are they also projecting?


Are you ashamed of your country own mess ?

I already know that my country is in a far better condition because while Kenya has defaulted and been doing so for 2 years already (Sri Lanka like situation).. Ghana has not gotten closed to that yet.

There's no end in site for Kenya.

Ghana's total debt is now 48 billion dollars meanwhile Kenya's is around 80 billion with no liquidity

rvp20182:
Kenya budget is 36 billion mad cow.
We normal borrow what we repay - 10 billion borrow - 10 billion repay
Leaving rest of money to finance recurrent plus development.
That is why you see development projects all over

I know you're a lunatic but at least be factual..

Your 2022/2023 budget is reported at 26 billion..

That's not how debt works, lunatic..

There's no money left to finance capital and recurrent expenditure..
Even debt service and wages , your government can't pay because it stands at 140% of revenue, so which one is left that you're referring to ?

When you say development all over, you mean one road in Kenya and one uncompleted interchange in Mombasa

I like the way you guys claim development all over meanwhile your country look like pig pen with an infrastructure gap twice that of Ghana.

rvp20182:
Kenya is not Ghana or Nigeria - which dont know how to manage their finances.

Ordinary taxes - KRA collected KShs. 2.031 Trillion during the Financial Year 2021/2022 then add another A-I-A - another 230B kshs.

So average debt repayment (interest+principal) of 1.1 trillions against total revenues of 2.2 trillion kshs - that 50% debt servicing ratio.

This year projected is 1.4 trillion public debt repayment - against 2.4 trillion Kshs revenues

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ke/Documents/tax/Deloitte%20Kenya%20Budget%20Highlights%202022-23%20.pdf

lunatic...
Debt servicing is 1.47 trillion (12 billion)
Wages, compensation already takes more than half of your 26 billion budget ...

You can't even finance capital and recurrent expenditure.
The funny thing is that the IMF bailout program you're in will not solve Kenya's problem and cutting down expenditure does not even start to solve the major because it will only reduce your govt debt addition which seek to reduce it budget deficit.
Real problem is how to. Cut Kenya debt servicing cost and wage bill to managed levels in order to have liquidity to avoid further default.

That's what poor finance management looks like

GeneralDae2:
As at October, I knew Kenyan debt servicing had skyrocketed to around 1 trillion shillings. Dunno about now.

this is what Bloomberg is saying
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-08/how-kenya-s-debt-service-obligations-climbed-to-12-billion


It's just insane that just w obligations is already gulping up 130% or realistically 140% of revenue because out of the 26 billion that their government budgeted to spend, wages and compensation is expected to take more than half according to Bloomberg

obaaderemi:
Is this true?
$14bn against revenue of how much?

their govt is projecting 16 or 19 billion dollars for 2023.
Yes it is true

rvp20182:
Try that madness in Makola market.
Maybe they will even give you goat meat fried on used tires.
For all that effort.

These things are beyond your comprehension so I'll spare you

At least you can't dispute Bloomberg
Spending 14 billion dollars on debt servicing for 2023 has sent your country into bankruptcy.
With wages and other poverty payment to employees taking an extra 10 billion dollars.

That's a zoo situation there

rvp20182:
Yet you cant pay domestic debt until 2027 - let alone external.
You're completely broke until 2033 earliest.
And the more you defend the indefensible the more we laugh

debt swap does not mean failure to pay .. it means creating more liquidity room by extending your spread.

As you can see in the budget, all domestic debt due has been budgeted for.

The facts says otherwise... I only spend 35% of revenue on debt servicing


On the other hand Kenya is completely broke Compensation item and debt service is taking 130 of Kenya revenue
I remember when you were busy virtue signaling to the Nigerians that wages and debt servicing took 90% of their revenue and not knowing Kenya was worse

rvp20182:
Mad cow.

lunatic... I like the way facts hurt your feelings

rvp20182:
It terrible mad cow.

debt to GDP only shows Solvency it is debt to revenue that matters and this shows liquidity.

Ghana debt to revenue service is 35% (55 billion cedi for 2023)
Compensation of employees is (44 billion cedis)



We're in a better situation

rvp20182:
Kenya can default on any loan it wants; that is not soverign default;
We cannot pay for dams that were never built.
Italian gov and companies can go to court or negotiate.

KQ took loan of 750M to buy Beoing dreamliners - the outstanding balance is 80m dollars.

That is chicken manure for kenya gov.

Frustration

And that is why the Kenyan economy is in a bad shape with austerity bitting hard.

The problem is not the dam but the monies your govt took and misappropriated ... Now it has to be paid back and they defaulted.

Actually KQ was only able to pay 80 million and your govt managed to pay a little but the 550 remaining has become and albatross because they don't know how to get it, just like SGR loan repayments

popizaino:
I know you live in an alternate Ghana different so pls spare me your BS. I am not interested.

I guess you don't know Felix Kwakye is a cabinet member of the last govt .. Felix has an obligation to push that because it benefit his political interest.

Anyway why are you desperate looking for Ghana to default?

rvp2018:
Auditor General job is to report what Treasury did.
Treasury simply refused to pay - that is default - but not for lack of money - but because of legal issues.
This will go through Arbitration btw Kenya and Italy Gov.
There are such debt that Ghana refuses to pay.
You refused to pay one IPP in your power sector - claiming corruption - no one said Ghana has defaulted.
US of course banned you from Power Africa

So you have now moved from it didn't exist to now your treasury refusing to pay an international debt and finally accepting it defaulted..

Well done you e made progress

Now let me tell you why it defaulted and why it will default on KQ loan just like the SGR loan.

The Kenya treasury is spending 120% of revenue on debt servicing and wages and salaries.
This means that in order for the Kenyan treasury to forfill those 2 obligation, it had to either sacrifice part payment of wages and salary (this option will destabilize the country and create a political uprising) so it choosed the safest option which was to default on those obligations. Meaning you country had no money


Ghana never obligated on any of it IPP payments... We paid it all and successful renegotiated those obligation overhang to zero.

Ghana had no obligation to PDS, infact PDS has an obligation to Ghana for fraud and Ghana will be sueing them.
The US govt got pissed that we cancelled the contract with that company.

There's no equalism here

rvp2018:
None of those dams were built.
Italian contractor CMC di Ravenna declared bankruptcy long time ago
Kenya cancelled the contracts due to corruption.

But the monies were taken from foreign banks and spent by your government with no plans of how to repay

Do you want to dispute your auditor general report?

Dumb as usual

Kenya defaults

2 more cases are loading..
With KQ default on 550 million debt, the Kenyan government as a guarantor is also expected to default on that as well as there's no room for additional.
Same situation is happening with SGR facility

popizaino:
Shut up.

Yes ... A debtor has that option.
Debt swap, buy back, exchange is all allowed.

And that is why Bloomberg is not calling it a default.. anyone with financial knowledge already knows that. .

A country does not default when it is spending 30% on wages and salaries and another 35% or 40% of revenue on debt servicing.

A country is in real shit when 100% of it revenue goes to debt servicing and wages alone like we've seen with Kenya and that is why they defaulted

popizaino:
Save words and post from the horses mouth themselves. It's obvious you are dealing with a robot who has been programmed not to agree with you.

At this point you don't know that Ato Forson is only being political er.

All because you're not capable of having the brain capacity to read and understand what is going on.
Robot you say... Must be your dumb self


The horses own moth comes from the likes of IMani and co who sits on the table of budgetary preparations

rvp2018:
Mad cow.
Ghana has unilaterally extended the maturity of all the bonds to 2026 - earliest - to the future.
That already is a default.
You are not able to pay maturing bonds (principal) until 2026 earliest.
Coupon is just fixed interest. Ghana is promising to pay zero, 5, etc interest or coupon.
That won't help anybody when inflation has gone through the roof.

Because Ghana has the right to do that according to the legal terms of bonds which is called a buy back or and exchange bond..
That is not a default as much as you want it to be, it is not... A default is what happened in Kenya when it failed to pay back it obligation.

That's would help Ghana as it is the debtor.

Look out for more default news from Kenya as both your wage bill and interest payment is not going to go down even in the next 8 years and it will only get worse by the severe austerity that is causing your govt to cut down expenditure by 40%... In an economy like Kenya that is largely dependent on govt spending... That means disaster when just 2 items is taking 120% of Kenya revenue

Ghana has already bump up revenues to 18% of GDP and will be and has budgeted to spend 23% of GDP for 2023.

rvp20182:
What do you think a default is? Did you expect Ghana to say they will never pay? They have announced unilaterally without any negotiation with bond holders they are unable to pay until 2026. So if you had bought Ghana gov debt - wait for 2026. And you now never know - they will keep pushing the dates - because things are elephant

That is sovereign default.

What will happen - no one will lend to Ghana gov in the next decade or two - because nobody trust Ghana gov anymore.

So locked out of domestic and external debt market - it will only depend on IMF. And IMF will colonize the broke country for a decade plus.

Other consequence on Cedis and interest rate will be clear. The oncoming banking crisis will also be clear.

first question I will ask you is, do you know that bond coupons are base on market condition?

Is that what you read? The bond issuer has to option to exchange exiting bonds with new ones in the interest of the creditor which means a negotiation of some form had already taken place according to the laws governing bonds.
Basically using the market rate to say that coupon payment for 2023 is zero and 5% at 2024.
And per the new agreement there are new maturity dates.

Since you have no education on bonds Market .... Take a read
Don't worry, Ghana will not join Kenya in debt default.

Last time Ghana did that was in 1972 or 82.


The domestic market is already being prime for new debt issuance based on prevailing market conditions.
So the meth you're on on no one issuing money to Ghana is just in your head.

Also on the external front... Ghana will be back in the market very soon

Ghana is already in a deinflationary process and so are interest rate and the current measures are already priced into the currency.

I'm more worried for Kenya though as the country is far above the debt servicing threshold and there's no abate.
With a debt servicing cost that is 70% of revenue and wage bill that is 50% of revenue.

This leaves no room for govt spending on development and there looks to be no abate as has reflected in Kenya default.

rvp20182:
#Ghana downgraded by #Moodys to #SriLanka level few days ago.

The rest will follow.

I know you dont understand these things until you see blood on the streets.

It's coming. I told you few months ago - that default was coming before xmas.

Real blood is what is happening on Kenyan street as austerity measures are bitting Kenyans hard..

With a high level of uselessness in Kenyan finances, your country will be lucky in that volatile region if the people don't turn on your govt with such cuts.

I know you don't know anything about the bonds Market so you think buybacks, exit bonds and exchange bonds are defaults..



The market had already priced these things in a long time ago

rvp20182:
Mad cow you truly a specimen.

crazy kid... I know these things are beyond your level of understanding

Read a lot more and learn .... Skeletal zombie

rvp20182:
Eurobond default and haircut.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-24/ghana-proposes-losses-for-eurobond-holders-in-debt-restructure
Ghana Eurobonds Steady as Country Proposes Debt Restructure
Haircut may be up to 30%, deputy finance minister Kumah says
Reorganization needed to make debt sustainable for IMF loan

As usual you don't know the terms of a bond .


It is also not a default ... Exchanging bond for new ones which reflect current market prices is a part of bond legal clauses which every investor knows of...
At the same rate their coupon can increase, it can also decrease.

The investors knows the bond market risks and signed up for it


Learn ... There are so many tools to create liquidity

Ghana is not a zoo like Kenya that defaulted and had no option than to rush to the IMF for bailout

rvp2018:
You have defaulted.
You wont be able to pay for anything until 2026.
The rest are details. Your banks may not survive this. So withdraw your savings early and dollarized. Sell anything you got and buy dollars. You will need them.
We now wait to hear if you will similarly default on external debt
That seems inevitable.

Actually we are paying for everything as budgeted for in our 2023 budget ...

Actually, our banks will survive it because a special fund was already created for them to make sure that there's no spill over effect.

Seek an education on the bond market before you start posting nonsense as usual

Kenya need that advise more, sell everything you have because the next recommendations from the IMF will be a lot brutal on Kenyans than they're already facing with the Kenyan govt currently unable to pay it obligation for service rendered because IMF has asked the Kenyan govt to cut 40% of it expenditure in order to have some relief in it classic debt default

rvp2018:
Try Twi mad man.
Today you officially defaulted like SriLanka
The consequences will be dire.

I know these things are beyond your understanding but that is what a debt sustainability review looks like.

You can ask for economics lessons....

There no real bad consequences..


Far better than the Kenyan govt cutting down on expenditure and entering austerity.

Yes Bright Simons write well and is a CSO

rvp20182:
We have handled the situation better. We are out of trouble domestically. Liquidity is back to debt market. Last bond was oversubscribed. Gov offered a switch bond recently - and got very good subscription.

Externally - kenya remain locked out of debt market - but we are cutting our expenditure anyways.

What Ghana has done is to declare they are BANKRUPT

This is sovereign default; this is Sri Lanka and Lebanon.

Now wait for the music

I like how you're technically dumb on things you don't understand....
When negative credit events happens or market liquidity dries up, bond prices decline.

That is not a sovereign default and hasn't gotten anywhere close to Sri Lanka or any of those... Kenya is more closer to that.

I guess you've not heard of moratorium or obligation restructuring.

This is what Solvent but illiquid looks like...

The government has increased it spending by 120% while exchanging it domestic debt for a longer spread option to free up itself. It is only using 30% of revenue or so to pay debt and another 18% to pay wages.

Kenya had no option than to cut spending by 40% according to IMF recommendation even after years of debt free and suspension.

Likewise foreign bonds are going to take a 30% principal cuts as the prevailing market conditions are.

jl115:
I think Shma thinks R1 is better than being in a Final he said and I quote " the gap is huge"..............Ironically He was in fact right

vankelvin:
Do you recall the other time @Tayser posted a video of Makola where the driver in the video said you can get everything in makola that even if you want a human meat you will get and @Tayser and his fellow primitive Kenyans took it literally.

How come an old man like RIP not understand *Black Star*? this is shear stupidity to the highest level

I remember it all



These kids are poorly educated.. even a class 4 kid will understand metaphors, allegory, personification, hyperbole and etc

ProblemChild1:
Oh, nice? Thanks for this information. The guy is very good. Both in ps3 and real life

You're welcome

Ps3?

ProblemChild1:
is Gakpo a Ghanaian

yes half Ghanaian

theenchanter:
these things are symbolisms and not literal, I thought u should know.

If u've seen a Ghanaian, u've seen a black star, u don't need to look up d sky, idiot.

Ghana is the first sub Saharan country to gain independence, more like the first of the dark (black) continent.

It's ur turn to check what star symbolizes and have some sense.

He didn't do literature in school and most Kenyans didn't

ProblemChild1:
You mean Gakpo

yes