₦airaland Forum

Mkenya2019:
The prize of cement has always been 600shs or less until inflation in march this year - and it's back to where it was.

Cement prices across major retail shops in the country reduced to around KSh 650 per 50kg bag, down from KSh 1,000 reported in March (it had basically doubled in that march-april)
https://nation.africa/kenya/business/why-prices-of-cement-steel-have-doubled--3770770
Ghana you're dealing with hyperinflation now

but what do you think we are talking about.... Hyper inflation has driven the price of cement in Kenya to 1000kshs which is far above the price of cement in Ghana.
Almost everyone is buying cement at 5 dollars but in Kenya, it is I dollars

And this is seen in the prices of almost everything in your country.. seriously, hyperinflation is maiming you guys in Kenya
Yet you keep forging data claiming 9% inflation... It's even laughable
No wonder capital outflows from your country is so huge.. it is the largest outflow from any African country..
Sane people are taking their monies out of your collapsed economy with such desperation.

rvp20182:
Mad-cow. The link is there.
Your total revenues for 2021 including oil & gas, non-tax and grants were 46B cedis - for Jan - Sept.
If we use the exchange rate of 2021 - that is roughly 8B dollars - 9 months.
If we use the exchange rate of now - jesus christ - 3B dollars - like RWANDA
https://mofep.gov.gh/sites/default/files/citizens-budget/2022-Citizens-Budget_English.pdf

Crazy kid

I love the way you have complete lack of understanding on anything Ghana.

This is from bank of Ghana. Oil revenue are not part of it.

Combine all of them and see how much we made in 2021

I'm sure your good at simple maths..

If my 80 billion dollars economy can generate this much revenue, then the Kenyan economy is really underperforming

rvp20182:
Ghana cooked CPI predictably doesnt have the average prices of individual items.

https://statsghana.gov.gh/gssmain/fileUpload/Price%20Indices/Bulletin_%20CPI%20August%202022.pdf

now you're ranting...

Good we can all find shelf prices

rvp20182:
Bring the cpi.
For example
Kenya cement is 600 kshs - not 1000 - it was 550kshs before inflation this year saw it rise to 800sh - and has dropped to 600shs.
Ex factory is 430-450ks.

Generally almost everything is dropping in price in kenya.

I think next inflation will be back to below 7.5 percent - which is our target.

consumers don't buy at ex factory price ... They buy at retail prices as provided on the shelf at 1000kshs.

So you see... Generally basic stuff in your country are far more expensive than mine.. which was the point

rvp20182:
Tax revenue versus budget. Madcow. Just google away
https://mofep.gov.gh/sites/default/files/budget-statements/2022-Budget-Highlights.pdf

you're just mad... Kiddo
I'm talking about revenue and you're confusing yourself with budget

Mkenya2019:
Data source. Share you CPI. Bring your cooked CPI we see
CPI is collected countrywide on several shops and supermarkets.
https://www.knbs.or.ke/download/consumer-price-indices-and-inflation-rates-for-august-2022/

I told you I like the practical price comparison and not some massage bullshit
Kenya
5L sunflower Oil - 2,754kshs (22.58usd)
Ghana
5L sunflower oil - 270ghs (18.69usd)

Kenya
Ordinary perfume Rice 5KG - 1000kshs(8.21usd)
Ghana
Ordinary perfume Rice 5kg - 86cedis (5.94usd)

Kenya
Cement - 1000kshs (8.21usd)
Ghana
Cement - 86ghs & 90 GHS (5.94usd)

Should I add sugar, wheat flour, bread and co?

Mkenya2019:
Your revenues are peanut. Less than 10B dollars.
Your tax revenue last year was 8.8B dollars.
Less than 60B cedis. Roughly 5.5B cedis per month. Kenya is clocking 2B dollars a month.

My revenue was 15 billion dollars last year and this year we will hit 16 billion dollars though we should have hit 20 billion dollars.

Keep twisting argument


Debt servicing and your wage bill, you'll have to prioritize which one you want to pay first and which you'll be begging the IMF and WB to support you pay

Mkenya2019:
Prices of what and when. Ghana right now you need an hourly update of prices.

Basic commodity prices.. rice, oil, cement and etc

That's what practicality is

Mkenya2019:
Madness as usual. I think it bipolar.

scream more

Mkenya2019:
You only default; If you cant borrow anymore; and you like Nigeria have debt obligation exceeding 100 percent;
Kenya is doing 10B borrow; 10B repay.
If we stopped borrowing
We would have 20B; we will have to repay 10B; and use 10B - that should cover salaries and recurrent expenditure.
We would cut 10B - development vote.
That would be the worse case scenario.

My debt obligation is only 2.7 billion dollars...
That is peanuts 30% of my revenue.


No one is giving Kenya money to refinance.

Borrow another money from your domestic market and watch your debt obligation increase from 14 billion dollars to 16 billion dollars .

The IMF won't even allow o

Mkenya2019:
You just heckling as usual with little data.
Currency inflation tell you many things.
It's all here. Save your words.

explain why prices on Kenya markets more expensive than in Ghana?

Mkenya2019:
We had intense period in 1990s when we dealt with IMF.
Legendary Moi got something close to 10 IMF programs in a decade.
He would agree to their conditions - then promptly refused to honour them.
IMF would cut the program. Moi would go back to Washington DC and cajole them.
We had start and stop IMF programs - and eventually they built themselves a big office in Nairobi.

We also got our first and only hyperinflation in 1993 - lasting six months. Moi like Ghana initially went for boneheaded idea to steal DRC gold and use it as forex.

Moi was a legend because many economies couldnt have survived that 1990s sanctions he got....pretty much kenya was locked out for 10yrs as western countries tried to overthrow moi and failed.

I'm referring to the hyperinflation from last year to today

Mkenya2019:
We are debt refinancing for quite some time.
We borrow 10B on average; we repay 10B;
That leaves us with 20B dollars to finance our budget.
It's very simple.

not when no one wants to loan you money for you to use to pay Paul.
That is why you're defaulting.

Now you have to generate money from somewhere hence the deep crisis you're in

Mkenya2019:
Our industrial capacity is constrained by cheap chinese and indian imports
When inflation rises - our local capacity becomes competitive - and jack up production.
That is elasticity that allows us to deal with imported inflation.
Our only problem right now is really OIL...we need to build internal capacity to shift from Oil...through EVS and such

Ghana and Nigeria dont have an handle on imported inflation.

Yet none of your local production has gone up.. only thing that went up was your import bill because of inflation.

Ghana and Nigeria produce most of the products consumed in both countries. So there is almost no imported inflation

Mkenya2019:
Nigeria is in IMF big time.
South Africa is there.
We went to IMF due to COVID.
IMF was created for such period.
The shame is in going to IMF every year like Ghana.

IMF was created for a reason - and that reason was COVID or Wars.

It was not created to bail out Ghana every two years.

is that why they bailout Kenya every 2 years and now on it 24 bailout?

Mkenya2019:
We plan to borrow 8B - about 6B from domestic market - and as you can see domestic market has the money.
Now 2B dollars - we will borrow from IMF/WB/ADB.
We cut the budget by 3B dollars - we are fine.
Our tax revenues are growing at 20% - that is another 2 billion dollars.
And next year - we want to jack it to 30B dollars in revenue.

See - Kenya is miles ahead - from your poor Ghana.

Your are now on a death spiral because not only are you locked out of external debt market - you also killed the domestic debt market - by talking about haircut.

It's going to be PAINFUL. You better get IMF program

borrowing from where with which clearance from ImF?
Borrowing more will only make your situation worse in a debt crisis.
Where are you going to find 15 billion dollars required to fund your Budget?
Where will you find 12 billion dollars for your debt obligation?

The crashing shillings just added 4 billion dollars to your debt.

Your tax revenue can't even fund your wage bill and debt obligations together for it to support your budgetary obligation.

Ghana is rich enough to have too many options to sole it liquidity challenge

Mkenya2019:
We have never defaulted on china loan.
Kenya and Nigeria have the same credit rating. Both are B/B+. Ghana is down to about D now.
Leading indicator Nigeria will get a cut soon.
Your finance minister is looking to restructure debt.
Our forex reserve are still above 4 months worth of imports.
The inflation is under control - prices have not gone up for months now - and they are starting to come down.
This is because of our strong industrial capacity - that is able to replace imports - if they become more expensive.
Nigeria and Ghana you lack that elasticity.

Again we shall be here to witness Ghana free-fall and soon Nigeria.

your industrial capacity produce absolutely nothing hence you huge import. Even Ivory coast has a larger industrial capacity than Kenya.

which import have you replaced?

Explain how your import bill climb yearly and at 22 billion for this year?

Mkenya2019:
You can project all day all night but it wont help Ghana.
What you need badly and urgently is IMF program otherwise the negative feedback loop continues.
You need a big break from this negative feedback loop that is causing panic and hyperinflation.

Kenya we are fine....IMF just left us 0.5B dollars. This is yesterday.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/11/08/pr22376-kenya-imf-reaches-sla-on-the-fourth-reviews-of-the-eff-and-ecf-for-kenya
IMF Reaches Staff Level Agreement on the Fourth Reviews of the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility for Kenya
November 8, 2022

IMF staff and the Kenyan authorities have reached staff-level agreement on economic policies to conclude the fourth reviews of the 38-month EFF/ECF arrangements. Kenya would have access to about US$433 million in financing once the review is formally completed by the IMF Executive Board.
The new government has expressed strong commitment to the IMF-supported program.
The economy remains broadly resilient. However, volatile international commodity prices, tighter external financing conditions, higher inflation, global slowdown in growth, and continued drought have created a challenging backdrop for economic policy making.
Kenya’s program is helping the country through these global shocks by anchoring policies to support inclusive growth while addressing debt vulnerabilities.

I have no time for long essays

IMF will not solve your 12billion dollars debt obligation this for 2022 and neither will they solve your 14 billion dollars obligation for 2023.
You can't borrow anymore to fund your huge budget funding gap and neither can you borrow to pay salaries because debt servicing is taking a huge chunk of your revenue.

How do you manage to borrow so badly such that your obligations get to 14 billion dollars on 80 billion debt

obaaderemi:
Kenya is in serious trouble. That little Indian is just arguing blindly.

He thinks Kenya has been in IMF bailout for the past 2 years for no reason.
He has forgotten that IMF will not solve any of their problems and it is part of the reason why they still defaulted on their Chinese debt

Mkenya2019:
The good thing by next week you will be happy to claim it 15 cedis to a dollar - by then it will be 18.
Last week you were insisting it's 10/9.
Today you're happy to report 13.5.
Inshallah we will be here.
Hyper Inflation is not a joke.

Good you know hyperinflation is no joke .... How are you saving Kenya from it ?
39 million poor Kenyans is no joke, such numbers can destabilized a country

obaaderemi:
Yet you have a higher credit default swap spread than Nigeria. No wonder you are ranked among top countries likely to default on your loans. How can a small poor country like Kenya have a debt portfolio close to that of Nigeria at $80bn? How are you going to pay that back? Don't forget your eurobonds payment are coming due as from 2024, a problem Nigeria doesn't face.

Ghana with a better cash flow than Kenya will not even borrow that much ... No wonder they are defaulting

rvp2018:
Did you go round all the forex..by tomorrow we will be at 15.. hyperinflation is on..we ended the day at 14.50..tomorrow it hits 15

sorry kiddo
Forex does not work like that

If hyperinflation is maiming you guys in Kenya, don't just assumed everyone is being maimed.

With the constant price increases you guys have faced that has made everything food in your country Kenya more expensive than mine, I think you should be spending more time thinking about how to make life more affordable for Kenyans who have been driven into poverty, all 39 million of them.

rvp2018:
Try Twi otherwise put a link here so I can read for myself...

I just give you Ghana grid company data was that not enough for you?

rvp20182:
Ghana hyperinflation on - at the rate of inflation/depreciation - we are looking at xmas where cedis will exchange 30 to a dollar

Rate at Forex bureaus today is 13.5

Good luck getting an exchange from google

Mkenya2019:
https://energycom.gov.gh/files/2022%20Energy%20Statistics.pdf
Your regulator has this...
Annual growth of 5%
You will be paying for the over-capacity for quite some time.

I like the way you don't have an understanding of Ghana

This does not include CEBS system load

For instance, in 2019, plus CEBS system load, total system load was 3078Mw.

The figures I report all have CEBS load which you get from Gridco.
So like I said, we are not paying any over capacity charge
That ended in 2018 ending when the last overcapacity facility was renegotiated and now as we speak...all generation capacity are almost used up.

Accra alone consumes the total electricity consumption of both Togo and Benin combined and this consumption is also more than Half the total consumption of Kenya.

Mkenya2019:
I am seeing projected for 2021 was 3400mw. Where did you get 4400mw.

Ghana peak demand for the last few years
2019 - 2804Mw
2020 - 3280Mw
2021 - 3740Mw
2022 - 3984Mw

We've not ended the year yet and we are already at 3984 megawatt. You can see the trend of at least 400Mw increase in demand yearly.
So from 2023, we have to start adding 400mw of electricity else we will have electricity problems from 2024 going.

The West African nation has an installed energy generation capacity of 5,050MW comprising hydro, thermal and other renewable energy sources.

However, dependable generation is 4,742MW... Out of this dependable generation, we require an 18% reserve capacity which means in 2023 we have to sign a 1200mw to 1600mw power generation agreement inorder to have it onstream by 2026.

This huge demand is being driven by the manufacturing sector, service sector and household consumption.

That's the sign of a growing economy.

Shma2022:
What I emboldened is a pure speculation algorithm rooted from Guessmatics and word wasting.
I am kinda busy today and tomorrow, but I will tackle for you your paltry road network, then tomorrow evening, I will be back with more analysis.

Source: GHANA MINISTRY OF ROADS AND TRANSPORT.

This is the original report released on February 2022.
https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://www.graphic.com.gh/images/2022/mar/31/Press_Release_on_Completed_Roads_at_SONA.pdf

From the content above, you only have a total of 78400km total road network. Out of it, Only 77% is tarred/PAVED. Quick math gives us 18,000km thereabout. Kenya was there around 2015-2017 when Uhuru had not unleashed his g@nja on road infrastructure.

Bonus:
From the same report, Ghana had only added 68km of the new road network - which has already been factored in 18k km total paved. If we add 1200 asphalt overlay of the existing unpaved road... It will give us a paltry 1268km
newly paved section, for the past 5yrs( 2017-2022). For a country that produces gold, oil, cocoa.. With possession of huge arable land.... That Is a disgrace.

You don't seem to know how to read, so let me help you.

In 2021.. the total classified road network size is 94,200km while total road network of both classified and I classified is 109,515km as at 2009.

27% of 109,515km gives you 29,569.05km of paved road network as at 2017... Add the 10,875km of paved roads completed by 2021 May and you'll get 40,444.05km
This excludes additional 11,000km of road works still ongoing of which almost 5,000km had been completed in 2022.

This is more than double the fraudulent numbers your country bundle up as paved road network.... Let me hear your excuses of how Ghana has gold and oil as if Kenya doesn't have gold and oil.

What is laughable is that Ghana has more than twice your country highway network.

Shma2022:
Spare us your selective amnesia. The link I gave out has a clear de-facto debt to GDP data; which is 78%.

People who are lending you: IMF and WB, are projecting a whopping 104% of Ghanaian debt to GDP in 2023 - that is now an estimation, meticulously done by your lenders. They ain't throwing hot air.



@kikuyu1 nailed it.

Keep hoping that Ghana will join you in that league .. by close of year, Ghana 400 billion cedis debt will be less than 50% of GDP. IMF projection are mostly based on the assumption that more debt will be taken in 2023 with a the projection made under prevailing condition,which can't happen.

As we speak, your country is already looking to borrow another 3 billion dollars from the UK while your president is smooching IMF ass for another money.

Talking about infrastructure.... You and your country men are yet to mention any infrastructure that your country has more of than Ghana.
Electricity
Roads
Water
SGR
Housing stock
Housing under construction
Education
Health
None of them

Sleep for you have nothing

rvp20182:
You're still paying a billion dollar overcapacity charge after 2015 mess. You simply never seem to get right anything.

Not true
We ended that in 2018 and today, our energy consumption stands at 4400MW which is almost close to our total capacity generation..

You don't have to be pissed because your country borrowed to invest in loss making business while we invested all our borrowed money into highly profitable businesses.

Wuoche:
In your bedroom.

since when did you start sleeping in my bedroom?

Wuoche:
Cedis is on a free fall against Ksh . On October 15th the rate was 1 cedi to 11ksh, today it's 1 cedi to 8Ksh

where do you exchange GHS for kshs?

gallivant:
Words.

Read from the WB

We don't put Eurobond monies into loss making business like your country did with Chinese money and can't pay back