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KarlTom's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 3:29pm On Sep 16, 2024
You get the drift... 👍🏾
rmx:
Once more, and we are talking current supply ….., not October

The current refined petrol nnplc bought is gotten from the crude dangote imported or purchased in dollars , dangote sold in dollars to nnpc consequently , nnpc converted to naira at 1637 and its 898 , they have added other cost to arrive at 950 for lagos etc

Dangote should come out and tell us I did not supply to nnpc at 690$ /tonne and 46$ / tonne premium for this current supplies

When they start selling crude to him in naira , another costing will be done then in October but for now the above applies , I think it should also be obvious why there is this contention between dangote and nnplc , it’s not for the benefit of Nigerians , it’s because power has changed hands 😊😊
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 3:23pm On Sep 16, 2024
This is the bone of contention.

Without taking sides, I can say that DANGREFINE and NNPCL might not be out of line to keep the current lifting price a 'trade/contractual secret' wink

After all the current produce from DANGREFINE are acclaimed not to be from the NNPCL-supplied crude.

PS.
The attached shows that NNPCL has actually supplied DANGREFINE some crude (not sure of its authenticity)

Agbalowomeri:
Has the government hands off from PMS? The company also has to be diplomatic. At least they both agreed now that Dangote Refinery has yet to receive the crude promised in naira which is the hidden information that the NNPCL did not provide

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom:
Your points are very valid....for an ideal setting.

Sadly we are not in one of such.... sad

The bolded is probably one of the last things we might see materialize

olig:
Honestly!

Even me, 'I am tired on behalf of Dangote".

Is Dangote the regulator of downstream again?

If at all we really want progress, I expect a live board (online based) to be up and running by now. To see the amount lifted per hour (if not per minutes), and at what rate and the destination. Each filling station in Nigeria should have a code.

Yet, our problem is the one who is trying is very best to contribute his own little (which is more than government's effort).

Maybe Alhaji Aliko Dangote should close up his refinery, cement, sugar, etc factories. Everyone will be happy by then.

Even if Dangote is greedy, government's role is to check him by bringing in transparency. Dangote is not afraid to tell Nigerians he is going to sell PMS higher than the current rate. However, he has said that NNPC and/or FEC will determine the price. What else? NNPC should just be plain with whatever they are saying. NNPC should show us the invoice and receipt for the PMS lifted so far. That alone will solve the problem.

Dangote is just being careful. He didn't want to "indict" NNPC directly, because he can not fight them. That is why he refused to mention a price; and since is the government that determines the price.

FYI, I am a yoruba man, but God forbid that I support what is not right, even if it favours me. So, don't think "he is from the north".
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom:
It's part of the crude purchase deal.
NNPC sells crude to DANGREFINE in ₦ and they, in turn, buy PMS and Diesel (of equivalent value) from them in ₦.

The exclusivity of purchase is acclaimed to be a temporary arrangement... smiley

Laso09:
Why do you think it is only NNPC that can buy directly from Dangote refinery?
I want to believe that N776 being quoted is a subsidized figure.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 8:45am On Sep 15, 2024
smiley

KarlTom:
There are many contractual terms involved in deals like this but let's just leave it like that... smiley

On the issue of 'being on the queue', let me paint a scenario: What IF DR signed similar 'distributorship' agreement with NNPC?

The fact that MRS. ETERNA et al are NOT tagged EXCLUSIVE or SOLE distributor leaves the door wide open wink

On second thought, I feel the NNPC distributor deal is a clause inserted in the crude-for-naira deal.
Let's wait and see how it relates to subsidy in due course

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 8:23am On Sep 15, 2024
₦776 is a massive gain for Nigeria (that's circa ₦341 savings per litre).

Aren't these the same 'marketers' fighting to be allowed to continue importation at ₦1117 per litre?

Yeye dey smell... tongue
megawealth01:
https://punchng.com/marketers-eye-direct-deal-with-dangote-as-nnpc-buys-n766-litre/
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 8:18am On Sep 15, 2024
Q1 2025 is being muted

https://newtelegraphng.com/dangote-refinery-mulls-dual-listing-on-ngx-london-stock-exchange/

mikeapollo:
The news on Nairametrics says dollar is now N1,543 which is an improvement . Hopefully, it would improve and get to around N1,000./$

By the way, when is Alhaji listing the refinery on NGX?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 7:40am On Sep 14, 2024

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 7:13pm On Sep 13, 2024
OandO matter is very complicated. The more you look, the less...

but the bolded seems like abracadabra OR are you a motivational speaker? grin

Every mallam to his kettle…

BabsO2:
Oando had a negative SHF of N214b in unaudited 2023 from a priot year negative SHF of N183b. Its rate of depletion of shareholder funds decelerated in 2023. The depletion of shareholder funds started in 2019 with a huge acceleration.

Looking at SEPLAT. Its shareholder funds increased in 2023 by N800b

Oando should be able to get a positive SHF in 2024 mid year assuming its unaudited 2023 is not restated. This is premised on SEPLAT's SHF growing by another N1000b in the first six months of 2024. Turning a negative N214b shareholder's fund to positive right now should not be a beggie for OANDO. Otherwise it has very very very serious issues.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 4:49pm On Sep 13, 2024
Master of Double B
Agbalowomeri:
I be jack of all trades grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 4:44pm On Sep 13, 2024
This should not be an issue. smiley

If they want to continue 'importation' they'll have to source for their ForEx themselves.
In addition, there is no way the populace will buy from them at a more expensive rate per litre.

Sadly this shows that the 'subsidy collectors' are the cabal responsible for our failing naira

Raider76:
"These marketers have written to the president that they have lots of old stock that they bought at higher prices they need to import and sell. So, they ask why they are been forced to exclusively buy from Dangote."

And all along we were told that NNPC was the SOLE importer. Kai!!
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 3:27pm On Sep 13, 2024
Leave when the ovation is loudest... cool
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 3:26pm On Sep 13, 2024
OandO. -1.82%
ETERNA. -3.58%

sad
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 3:24pm On Sep 13, 2024
grin grin cheesy
Agbalowomeri:
See this analogue investor grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 2:00pm On Sep 13, 2024
Now you understand what SEPLAT crew are facing grin grin

If it doesn't move during 'clearing', it should do so tomorrow

vacanci:
Is this how the market will close without Flour Mills price officially moving with all the full bid?

na waooooooooooooooooooooo
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 1:16pm On Sep 13, 2024
grin grin
Omooloriredade:
Speaking of contagion effect. I see an unrelated stock that could follow FMN. Maybe the manufacturing industry relationship is the connection? huh

Disclaimer - TA or charting is not my forte so please do not make a buy or sell decision based on this post. Not sure I really understand what I posted sef.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 12:54pm On Sep 13, 2024
To think that I almost sold ALL my holdings with FBNH @24.

Now I am super grateful the deal fell through... grin

KarlTom:
Wagwan FBNH shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 12:50pm On Sep 13, 2024
Actually, FLOUR is yet to gain a kobo while HONEY is currently +10%

Is Flour so illiquid OR huh

OakPearl:
Now that Honeywell flour mill has followed FMN in entering full bid, could it be the turn of NNFM?
A quick check shows NNFM is on full offer, even though they have a net asset per share of N36.90.
At today’s lowest offer price of N39.15, might not be too bad an entry for the FA purists.
The risk in it is that it’s on full offer, no bid at the moment.
But there are offers higher than the least price.
Meaning once the least price is cleared, there’s a tendency for attention to be drawn to it.
Flour mills (FMN) that is on full bid now actually owns 59.6% of NNFM.
BBM the great, what sayest thou thine charts on NNFM?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 11:10am On Sep 13, 2024
Hello
I want to believe that he bought several years back so he does not know his stockbroker and he has a paper certificate.

If so, here's my 2cents:
1. Search for the Registrars of the Equity requesting for the .
2. Send them an email with his name, shareholder number. Also scan the share certificate and attach to the email.
I believe that they should be able to locate his stockbroker.

OR,
1. Let him open a new stockbroking account
2. Send the certificate to the new stockbrokers.
3. They should be able to advice.

smiley

PS: Our 'ogas' will give more insight
Bimmms:
Good morning,pls i need someone who can help out, my uncle is trying to sell his shares but the challenge is that he doesn't know is CSCS number, what can be done? or is there any stock broker that can help?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:28am On Sep 13, 2024
grin grin

ositadima1:
Sorry to bother you all with my nonsense. I'm heading back to work now, where I'll be calculating load flow, short circuit currents, motor starting parameters, and relay settings using ETAP software for my supervisors. It is burring, I swear. shocked shocked wink
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:12am On Sep 13, 2024
Wagwan FBNH shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:05am On Sep 13, 2024
grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 4:40pm On Sep 12, 2024
Abeg no vex (in arrears & in future) grin grin

Sunrisepebble:
grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 4:38pm On Sep 12, 2024
shocked shocked

Sunrisepebble:
Against policy. I can provide more info but I don't want the news to cast and for volumes to spike and impact the transaction. Maybe a day or two before it drops but I think what I dropped regarding consolidate or hold a few weeks back was a good enough recommendation. Based on what im hearing ~#60 can be a reality. Please all, do your own DD
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 4:36pm On Sep 12, 2024
I recall mentioning that IOCs were divesting to move to cleaner (green) energy.

On this 'news', many questions could arise:
1. How does a 200,000 bpd refinery which was operated by two of the world's largest chemical giants run at a loss then eventually close down?
2. PetroChina is the equivalent of NNPC: could there be some political undertones?

I did some digging and sadly I discovered these:
1. Sir Jim Radcliffe (owner of INEOS) said
"The UK...seems intent on rapidly destroying North Sea production through punitive windfall taxes, disincentives and negative comments, making us totally reliant on overseas supplies and losing billions in potential revenue."
2. UK Refineries pay a whooping 75% as headline tax shocked shocked
30% Ring Fence Corporation Tax (RFCT)
10% Supplementary Charge on profits derived from oil and gas activities
35% Energy Profits Levy. (25% on introduction in May 2022, 35% in January 2023 till March 2028)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-statement-2022-energy-taxes-factsheet/energy-taxes-factsheet
3. Some reasons PetroIneos closed shop are the reduction in demand for road and jet fuels, ban on new build petrol and diesel cars coming into effect in 2030 in Scotland., a direct result of the pandemic, combined with a gradual long-term increase in the electrification of road vehicles, and a decreased reliance on fossil fuels.

# On the bolded, I hope the FG will supply DANGREFINE in full

Harvestock01:
https://www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg3gwkkk4mo.amp?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17261480289425&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com

Scotland's only oil refinery to close down.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 3:39pm On Sep 12, 2024
SA: Spiritual Analysis
SiA: Sincerity Analysis grin grin

GracefulLau:
FA, TA, DA(Dream Analysis), SA(Sincerity Analysis),.....
Na wao! smiley
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 3:37pm On Sep 12, 2024
Apologies to ALL the 'ogas'

You are immensely appreciated... wink

yMcy56:
How could you forget our one and only Customstreet? smiley
Sometimes, I do feel Sunrisepebbles is somehow Oga Customs self.... tongue

When we tell them to tone down on their rude and careless posts, they turn it to attack......
You won't believe the kind of personalities here and even those our Ogas on top....
@CP, Oga Oracle, Oga Wanaj0, Oga Emma, even Agba and quite some others with simple monikers that one can't even imagine.....some don't post, some it's once a while.....
You know say I don tey here small... smiley
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 2:32pm On Sep 12, 2024
OandO. +3.66%
ETERNA. -8.14%
FBNH. +10%

grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 2:12pm On Sep 12, 2024
We all play unique roles actually. wink

However, their contributions are based on a specific equity...

Streetinvestor2:
You forgot to add me the hater and godlyguy the now hater general...hahaha
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 2:05pm On Sep 12, 2024
REDSTAR DIV has landed grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 1:59pm On Sep 12, 2024
First it was @Bagwa with OandO
Now it's @Sunrisepebble with FMN (and ARADEL)

Una dey see the kind people wey dey this thread?

Please let's be cautious and courteous in our interactions... smiley

Shoutout to others who are yet to drop invaluable hints. We are patiently waiting wink
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 12:08pm On Sep 12, 2024
Which way FBNH?

FOte$ or Barbican Capital smiley

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