₦airaland Forum

FYI

Details of OPL 245.
https://www.eni.com/en-IT/media/opl245-case-process-nigeria.html

megawealth01:
No give up ooooo. The dude can't just imagine allowing himself not to be able to sleep till Monday

When you gamble a stock because of bulaba

I give up on you...

designking:
I will buy this. I have sold all my Oando and left just 10,000 units for the future. Made about ₦3.6million on it.

Better education has taught me today that the fair price of Oando shares is ₦75 - ₦80. If we equate it with Seplat which has great fundamentals, it should be at most ₦172 per share. At ₦172 Oando will have same capitalisation as Seplat... Which is a long call. Oando is not yet ripe for ₦100 and above.

Note, this is just be own observation. Oando shares too many... It has 22times what Seplat has.

Hawes & Curtis is looking very good

designking:
Is Curtis looking good?

Sadly/Ironically camps can never be settled. From MEND to NDPVF to NDV.

The money on the table is HUGE

https://businessday.ng/politics/article/oil-pipelines-surveillance-contract-how-asari-dokubo-is-trying-to-eat-tompolos-lunch/

Zagee:
You seem to have not been in Nigeria when you talk about reducing oil theft. Have you seen how they have been some what serious with illegal bunkering in the creeks. I have overhead several "boys" complaining and quitting because saboteurs are spilling these sites to the Make-shift Tantita. It is working. The hawks are home, so they will feast on anyone found lurking.
The whole Tantita stuff which was setup with a monthly rumoured 4billion opex to you-know-who is one of the reason that black Alhaji has been making noise. Camps are not settled.

Sorry about your experience. You'll agree that palms will be oiled to overlook these laws when it concerns locals compared to expatriates

It is easier and cheaper to negotiate with Nigerians than with expatriates...

PS: Alhaji M.A. Dokubo is a 'friend' of the government

ositadima1:
When it comes to work ethics and conditions, Agip is the worst of them all. I once worked at the Ebocha Oil Center, one of their storage, preprocessing, and distribution fields, and I know what I witnessed there. Oando has been collaborating with Agip for quite some time—I remember seeing them during my time there. Most of the operations were already being run by Nigerians. I believe they had a few Italians at their gas plant in Omoku.

But do you really think the issues of insecurity, volatility, and asset theft will disappear once Oando fully takes charge?

The bolded was not explicitly stated but they indicated that NAOC (and a few others) was having an impact on the Group's Financials mainly because their partners AND NNPC were owing / not fulfilling their part of the agreement.
Some other reasons for their exit were also stated (see attached SC)...

May I also add that IOCs pay attention to work place ethics and working conditions.
They are compelled to pay premium insurance to get their staff to work in highly volatile areas/countries.

ositadima1:
I downloaded it and reviewed it that day, but I didn’t see where the revenue from Nigerian operations was stated. Ok, aside from that, you might be thinking their focus on green energy explains the sale, but it still doesn’t justify selling so cheaply if it’s worth more.

Hopefully, Oando and Tinubu will manage it better than the Italians, but that remains to be seen.

You are right.
It was stated in the ENI FY2023 Report as €914m...

robobo:
You dont need to go too far. check the notes to the last FY report published by oando and you would see that oando and naoc where already in arbitration for a judgement debt of over >$200m which is heavily tilted in favour of oando (such that naoc had to quickly get an appeal against enforcement) the Oando-Naoc deal is subsequent to that judgement. the deal was to be settled net of the judgement debt (this is also in the notes in the same financial report).

You are up-to-date...

Pesuzok:
There are somethings we won't know why they sold for that price. They are divesting, it's difficult operating onshore, then I suspect opl 245, check the latest news on that.

Some people are already regretting selling off when it dipped intra trading...
Almost 2million units traded at 76.90 between 14:15 and 14:30...

megawealth01:
We bless GOD that Oando didn't end in full offer today. The cry and blame games here for shock bulaba

This fair value maybe correct Pre-NAOC but it is far from reality Post-NAOC...

godlyguy:
Not possible. It will still trade at its fair value of #16

Be wise

I dropped the ENI FY20323 report here some days ago (I will search for it again).
I asked myself the bolded and took time to search for answers...

NB: Mobil, Shell and co are also selling some of their assets.
I will bring this up again AFTER the deals are completed...

I am in the industry...

ositadima1:
Why did Agip agree to sell for just $783 million, not even reaching a billion, if the asset promises substantial returns? Were they under some juju when they signed it away to Oando? Also, it's more cheaper to build a new refinery rather than purchasing those existing ones, same with that Ajaokuta steel. You'll end up sinking a significant amount of money just to bring them up to functionality and modern standards. Take your time and conduct thorough research.

They might enter Midstream: Refining
They divested from downstream: Retail outlets.

mikeapollo:
Okay ooo, thanks.
You are indirectly saying that ''anything is possible'' and Oando could revert to the midstream/dowstream business

@ositadima1

Let me drop my 2cents.

Generally speaking, the oil business is a massive gamble. Here's what I mean: the current figures used are all estimates.
Secondly, any company with license in the E&P has sufficient resources to serve as collateral for loans. (Even Nigeria used oil to secure loans).
The profitability index of each sector is what each company needs to look into.

I don't think funding will be an issue IF OandO wants to secure either WR or PHR (though I feel they will rather build a smaller capacity refinery from scratch because of the moribund nature of those refineries).

Aside loans, they can raise funds through an IPO or RI which I believe will be OVERSUBSCRIBED...

ositadima1:
Have you appraised the level of damage and rehabilitation needed, or are you only seeing the share price of Oando? Oando's outstanding shares are 12,431,412,481. At ₦70 per share, it's worth ₦870,198,873,670, which is just $580,132,582 (rate $1,500). How much did Dangote use to build a new refinery? And what percentage of that do you think will be needed to rehabilitate these ones that have been left fallow for more than 30 years?

These current strong bulls will be called 'calf' when post Q3 and FY24 results comes around...

Zagee:
Fun fact:
Oando has only experienced two months of "significant" profit taking(100m+ in volume) this year at circa 16 and circa 9.

The last 3 months witnessed strong bulls in excess of 300m+ in volume and 500m+ only in August.

How so?

The term resistance has been abused...

designking:
Exactly my thoughts. More profit taking will happen by Monday till like Wednesday. It has created a new resistance at ₦76+.

+10%

MARKETJJC:
OANDO triggered NSE mini bull has end for now. Let us wait for banks to do theirs.

i FIXED YOUR SUBMISSION...

mikeapollo:
How is this Oando's business or interest?
Oando now operates in the upstream (exploration and production).
It does not CURRENTLY operate in the midstream (refining) nor downstream (retail distribution).

godlyguy:
He is taking profits

Congratulations

Bbbwings:
I'm done
200k to 1million

Dey play...

Raider76:
Smart money deciding it's time. One analyst website gave the fair value around 76.

I understand your scepticism.
However, this is positive news and it is expected to positively affect the market.

The OandO-Eni deal was 'announced' about 4 times. Yet the market responded positively EVERY TIME.

This Olo deal was just completed so there is need to inform shareholders and stakeholders...

Raider76:
The way people are hyping Oando and Aradel now is exactly how BUBBLES are formed in the stock market. The news about Aradel buying Olo and Olo West oil fields was out some 2 to 3 weeks ago, and is now being recycled as breaking news. People should be careful because bubbles do burst. This is just a caution. Please don't read me wrong. There is a famous Buffet saying to be afraid when others are not.

GeeKudi:
You really need to make up your mind and maintain a position.

Are you not selling all your Oando stocks tomorrow again?

Here we go... again
And you dey claim say you go sell today...

designking:
Oando is a great long term stock. No matter what the sentiment or fundamentals say, Oando fair price is around ₦150 - ₦200. That is the price it will settle.

The stock has no business staying below ₦100.

ELLAH.

At a glance: Nothing spectacular...

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42071_ELLAH_LAKES_PLC.-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_AUGUST_2024.pdf

This is serious o...

ositadima1:
Are the Oando listings on JSE Depositary Receipts or actual shares.


Depositary Receipts:
These are negotiable financial instruments issued by a bank to represent a foreign company's publicly traded securities. The depositary bank holds the underlying shares in custody in the company's home country.

Ownership Structure:
The actual shares are held by the depositary bank in the company's home country.
The receipts traded on foreign exchanges represent ownership of these underlying shares.

Trading Implications:
In this scenario, you're not directly trading the original shares, but rather the receipts that represent ownership of those shares. This structure has several implications:
a) Conversion: Many depositary receipt programs allow for conversion between the receipts and the underlying shares, though this process may involve fees and take some time.
b) Price Differences: While the prices of the receipts and the underlying shares should theoretically be equivalent (adjusting for exchange rates), discrepancies can occur due to different trading hours, liquidity levels, and local market conditions.
c) Corporate Actions: Holders of depositary receipts generally have the same rights as direct shareholders, including dividends and voting rights, though the process might be slightly different.
d) Regulatory Considerations: The depositary receipt structure helps companies comply with different countries' regulatory requirements, making it easier for foreign investors to trade.

Arbitrage Potential:
While arbitrage is still possible in this scenario, it's more complex:
You'd be trading different instruments (receipts vs. actual shares) rather than the same shares on different exchanges.
The conversion process between receipts and underlying shares can take time and incur costs, potentially reducing arbitrage opportunities.

Risks and Considerations:
Currency Risk: As you're dealing with instruments potentially priced in different currencies.
Political Risk: Changes in regulations or political situations in either country could affect the depositary receipt program.
Liquidity Risk: Sometimes, depositary receipts might be less liquid than the underlying shares.

Professional Execution:
This type of arbitrage is typically executed by institutional investors or specialized arbitrage firms due to its complexity and the need for quick execution and advanced trading systems. Copied

Not really.
Cumulative gain of 15% in the last 7days...

Sunrisepebble:
Is it liquid on JSE?

@designking

The Wealthng platform does not look legit.

1. The prices of certain stocks are 'outdated' e.g. TOTAL is currently 388.9 (NGX: 618.30), OKOMU is 292 (NGX: 417.70), OANDO is 16.4 (NGX: 69.95)
2. Some stocks are still listed e.g. ARDOVA, UNIONBANK.
3. There is not place to fill in CHN, CSCS, BVN, NIN
4. They do not have an official bank account. Payment is by FLUTTERWAVE (if you know, you know)
5. They do not appear to have a regulator...

The good news is that you are yet to buy (I really hope so).
My advice is RUN!

I dey wait o

yMcy56:
Ok. Let's talk about NGX rules......
How is it possible for a transaction of N16 to pass thru the automated trading Engine, bypassing all the full bids at 69.95 to sell at 16?

All transaction's must pass thru the trading Engine for proper documentation, etc.
Pls note that youre not talking to dunce here....

I dey come......make i do small search....😊

Can anyone shed more light on the REISSUE aspect?
Will the reissued units be ranked pari-pasu across exchanges OR the value on LSE will be used to reissue on the NGX?

@Ginalex.
How does it work with SEPLAT

KarlTom:
So I asked ChatGPT:

Yes, you can sell OANDO shares that you bought on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), but like with SEPLAT shares, the process is not direct. Since OANDO is also dual-listed, you would need to go through a cross-border transfer process to move the shares from the JSE to the NGX before you can sell them on the NGX.

Here’s a general outline of the steps:

1. Initiate Transfer: Contact your broker to initiate the transfer of your OANDO shares from the JSE to the NGX.

2. Registrar Coordination: The company's registrar will handle the cancellation of the shares on the JSE and reissue them on the NGX.

3. Settle and Sell: After the shares are reissued on the NGX, you can then sell them through your broker on that exchange.

This process might involve fees and could take some time to complete, so it's advisable to consult your broker for detailed instructions, potential costs, and timelines.

So I asked ChatGPT:

Yes, you can sell OANDO shares that you bought on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), but like with SEPLAT shares, the process is not direct. Since OANDO is also dual-listed, you would need to go through a cross-border transfer process to move the shares from the JSE to the NGX before you can sell them on the NGX.

Here’s a general outline of the steps:

1. Initiate Transfer: Contact your broker to initiate the transfer of your OANDO shares from the JSE to the NGX.

2. Registrar Coordination: The company's registrar will handle the cancellation of the shares on the JSE and reissue them on the NGX.

3. Settle and Sell: After the shares are reissued on the NGX, you can then sell them through your broker on that exchange.

This process might involve fees and could take some time to complete, so it's advisable to consult your broker for detailed instructions, potential costs, and timelines.

Ginalex:
Really? How come we can buy Seplat and Airtel from LSE and sell on NGX but not JSE?

Same company. Different Exchanges. Entirely different rules...

e.g. JSE does not use the ±10% daily price cap. This implies that ZAR 0.23 can become ZAR 0.001 overnight...

designking:
The JSE Oando is it the same as the NGX Oando?