₦airaland Forum

Raider76:
Kenya's Ruto Vows Dangote Refinery Construction Unstoppable

https://share.google/qIz1nQowu51THxQdo

Kenya is not Nigeria. The rule of law and the vibrancy of the populace is high...their morale is very high ... He should watch it

essentialone1:
Reserves attract speculators. Balance sheet determines if institutions can come in. Oando today has the first, but fails the second.

*1. The going concern flag is not a technicality. It is a disqualifier.*

When auditors include "material uncertainty related to going concern" it automatically triggers a breach in most institutional mandates.

For Oando's FY2025, the auditor cited:

- Recurring net liabilities - negative equity of N567 billion
- Significant working capital deficiency
- Multiple loan defaults
- Exposure to enforcement of security over assets
- Uncertainty over management's funding plans.

Under IFRS, that means the company is technically insolvent - total liabilities N8.01 trillion exceed total assets. It continues to operate on the basis of a Letter of Financial Support or Guarantee from its majority shareholder. For a pension fund, insurer, or a group like Heirs Energies, that letter is not bankable collateral. Their risk committee cannot approve a position where solvency depends on an unverified shareholder guarantee.

Seplat and Aradel do not have this clause. That alone removes Oando from the investable universe for many.

*2. The earnings quality problem.*

OandO FY2025 reported EPS of N30. It looks strong optically, but:

- Finance costs nearly doubled: N236bn to N465bn
- Operating cash flow: only N32.3bn positive against N8.01 trillion liabilities
- Revenue down 22% YoY, with a gross loss of N2.76bn reported.
- Profit supported by non-recurring items: finance income, tax credits, impairment reversals.

An institutional analyst will strip those out and look at sustainable operating cash flow. On that basis:

- Seplat: $1.17bn operating cash flow, net debt down to $673m, 40-50% dividend payout policy. Cash flows fund both debt service and shareholder returns.
- Aradel: clean balance sheet, low leverage, which is why a single buyer could pay N390bn for 15.92% at N559.50 per share - valuing the whole company at over N2.4 trillion without a going-concern discount.

*3. Debt overhang kills reserve value.*

Oando is the largest indigenous holder of 2P reserves, that is factual. But reserves only create equity value after debt is serviced.

With N465bn in finance costs and only N32.3bn in operating cash flow, free cash flow to equity is negative before capex for reserve development. Any barrel produced first goes to lenders.

This is why Analysts' fair value of N123 on asset NAV and the market price of N34 of Oando Plc, can both be rational. N123 is asset value. N34 is asset value minus debt risk, enforcement risk, and dilution risk. The gap is the market pricing the balance sheet.

*Why Elumelu chose Seplat Plc over Oando Plc is logical:*

1. He is increasing a controlling stake from 20.07% to 21.07% - he needs a board, dividend, and ability to consolidate without going-concern risk.
2. Seplat has just integrated MPNU assets and has clear cash flow to deleverage.
3. He can become Chairman in January 2027 with a clean governance path. No institutional board would approve a Chairman appointment at a company with negative equity and multiple loan defaults.

Until Oando does a definitive balance sheet repair - debt-to-equity conversion, asset sale with debt paydown, or a large equity raise that restores positive equity and removes the going concern qualification - it stays in the speculative basket.

Institutions don't avoid it because they missed the reserves. They avoid it because their mandate forbids them from investing in negative equity companies with loan defaults, regardless of reserves.

I suspect that guy wants to carry the reserves go private ... He may want to delist from ngx....

Dapagun:
Gtbank's H1 2026 Disaster: The Delayed Confession Of A Bank In Decline

Nkem can you do a treatise on Oando.....

The error of statistics Oando is a company with 2.7 trillion naira debt and 500 billion negative equity.... and the profit is accounting profit...

deathwing:
Seplat is still undervalued

Relative to?

KarlTom:
TOEWay

Get out on time....

megawealth001:
An 18-year-old student working a summer construction job thought he found a few loose coins in the dirt. 💰😲

It turned out to be 49 solid gold bars and 4,000 gold coins worth roughly $10 million hidden behind a cellar wall!

Kobe and his team called local police to turn in the stash, and while 49 gold bars is an incredible find, it sure is a suspiciously specific number. 😆

Be honest... if you uncovered 50 gold bars on a job site, how many would you end up turning in? 💬🤨

If only they will hand it over to JAPAUL GOLD PLC..

Interesting

megawealth01:
An 18-year-old student working a summer construction job thought he found a few loose coins in the dirt. 💰😲

It turned out to be 49 solid gold bars and 4,000 gold coins worth roughly $10 million hidden behind a cellar wall!

Kobe and his team called local police to turn in the stash, and while 49 gold bars is an incredible find, it sure is a suspiciously specific number. 😆

Be honest... if you uncovered 50 gold bars on a job site, how many would you end up turning in? 💬🤨

If only they will hand it over to JAPAUL GOLD PLC..

Interesting

Are you living in lala land?

Check out the names very well... It's inconsistent with the crime

Mattswaggz:
SEE FINISH.....these are the results of bad leadership that some people are defending because of meagre 30k.

No. It's what our developers did in that country

Slammmmmmmm:
STANBIC INTERIM DIVIDEND #4.50

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/47981_STANBIC_IBTC__HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2026_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_SEPTEMBER_2026.pdf

Good. Is GTco window dressing?

NUC rules says a single 5 year tenure non renewable for vice chancellors.

jonnysessy:
Today is the last day of the month and also the end of third quarter. Normally, I expect some fund managers to do some window- dressing for their clients for the market to look upwards. But, you may never know with Ngx, especially with the red that was witnessed yesterday.

Zenith bank, Fidelity Bank, Access Bank, Stanbic IBTC bank, UBA etc are yet to release their Q2 results. Before October 31st, companies are expected to release Q3 results. It is about time the regulators should be fined for delayed results

Though, it is not over yet as these companies still have today. All 👀 are on NGX disclosure. We are watching and waiting.


I wish you all a happy last day of the month.

Hmmmm the acquisition levels of fidelity bank shares is becoming suspicious

jonnysessy:
If na joke, me you stop am.

First time you've refused to laugh after dividends.... Eyes on you...

chimex38:
Lol... You dey fain trouble
I see what your tryna do.

Owe&beOwed

aj8:
Common Sense Target for GTCO based on H1 is 111.80. The lower the fall below 111.80 the better the entry. I expect some media engineering around a probable high-end-of-year dividend payout to help prop up the price maybe around N120 till Q3 results show improved prospects. I would consider buying at prices within N105.00-N111.00 should it fall to that range.

GTco is around 150+ on the LSE.... Oando is sub 10 naira on the JSE....

why? are they having negative equity or 2.7trillion debts?

ppogba:
Enough dumping tomorrow trading session.

Bad Market for expectant lions like me.

He is emulating your OandO accumulation

faoogoke:
You're one of those waiting for accesscorp magic

faoogoke:
Accesscorp will rally as the market closes.
The people involved are on standby

I'm watching the prophesied rally

Stockpromoter:
🟢 JAPAULGOLD — ₦2.91 TEST
JapaulGold is showing strong bullish momentum today.
📌 High: ₦2.91
📌 Current: ₦2.70
📌 Low: ₦2.60
📌 Volume: 10.87M
The ₦2.90–₦3.00 zone is major resistance. Buyers have pushed price into this area, but sellers are defending it.
🔥 Key signal: If buyers break ₦2.91 with strong volume and Japaul closes above ₦2.90, that would confirm a bullish breakout and put ₦3.00 in focus.
For now:
₦2.60–₦2.65 = support
₦2.80 = confirmation zone
₦2.90–₦2.91 = breakout test
₦3.00 = next major target
TA: 8/10 bullish — breakout confirmation still pending.

What about the avacap you were on few moments ago sir?

Zagee:
What would be your candid advice for those who don't feel hurt, but are in oando?

I was in Oando, contemplated taking Wale Tinubu to court...on the basis of assets stripping... That is receiving humongous salaries whilst the company was having a negative equity... The CAMA would only allow them to buy me out ... compulsorily... Whether you like it or not Oando is not ready to align with the retail shareholders..even at the last AGM nothing concrete was said. Unlike Femi Otedola during the last FIRSTHOLDCO AGM.

Sell.

jonnysessy:
I don't know what you have read backwards in NSEMPA pages. But, i am telling you for free that in the world of stock investment i am humble, I don't claim i know and I try to improve on the little i have known.And that can only be done within my means. But, in this thread I can name you some gurus that talk and sleeps stocks with their fundamental and technical analysis. The only thing that has been working for me is past records ( mind you this is not foolproof or guarantee in investment). But, i manage to get by sha.

I recognise you sir... I know what I read...

jonnysessy:
Don't despise my humble beginning. What matters to me now is dedication and consistency. Someday we would get there.

Oga nothing is humble about you.... I have read more than several pages backwards

Asangbekoko:
They can even buy a single share of Seplat for #16,000.
Or someone who wants to invest in an oil and gas company can't afford #16,000 ?
Even if so, there are other good stocks that costs only #0.3 per share.
All are the same investment process.
One unit is one unit; the price doesn't matter.

Like OandO?

presiade:
Hmmm did you know my net worth before making that comment? LoL

Sorry our cooperative chairman

presiade:
Don’t insult the small-scale investors—na small dem small, no be say dem poor. LoL

Well HNIs don't want your money in this matter

Where? Context is very important

jonnysessy:
This is why share reconstruction will not be a bad idea. Split the price and increase the OS. It will reduce the 0.00001% in calculation and share price will move more. With the present condition, it is only the directors and very few networth individuals that can move the price with the maximum 100,000 units per trade. But, if NGX introduces the suspended price movement of stocks, the reconstruction may not be necessary

Just my layman opinion

Not all shares are meant for poor investors

chimex38:
Don't underestimate 10m social media warriors

I'm suspecting dang refinery doings will be worse than Wales ocean&oil....expats have valued the share price as best 250 per unit.... And it's basically for expansion which will come online in 2029....

Zagee:
Hahaha. I'm giving them just 365 days from today to turnaround. My timer is now on!

My candid advice to all Oando shareholders who feel hurt is to sell.... I have reviewed the legal implications....just sell. The management is not ready.

Zagee:
....and Oando is in the garri market 😂.

You owners of OandO needs to go to court