₦airaland Forum

chimex38:
Don't underestimate 10m social media warriors

I'm suspecting dang refinery doings will be worse than Wales ocean&oil....expats have valued the share price as best 250 per unit.... And it's basically for expansion which will come online in 2029....

Zagee:
Hahaha. I'm giving them just 365 days from today to turnaround. My timer is now on!

My candid advice to all Oando shareholders who feel hurt is to sell.... I have reviewed the legal implications....just sell. The management is not ready.

Zagee:
....and Oando is in the garri market 😂.

You owners of OandO needs to go to court

He's not in the game.

Amotolongbo:
Who carry Onila come the homepage?

OG how far? I shok too

Sapphire....in the chat...donated to chyna

So you'll believe the CIA? Please where's my pillow?

essentialone1:
The *₦666k narrative is false* because it uses the wrong starting price.

*Here is the verified fact:*

Fidelity Bank's 2007 Hybrid Offer was *₦8.00 per share* - not ₦1.00.

> Fidelity Bank's hybrid Offer of 5,501,100,421 Ordinary Shares of 50k each at *N8 per share* and Rights Issue of 498,899,579 at *N8 per share* opened on Thursday.

- ₦20,000 / ₦8 = *2,500 units*
- At today's ~₦19 - ₦20.50 = *~₦47,500 - ₦51,250* capital value
- Plus dividends over 18 years (Fidelity has paid every year since 2005), but nowhere near ₦600k.

Where did ₦666k come from?

1. Someone took Fidelity's crash price in 2016-2017 when it fell to *₦0.76k - ₦1.15* at the bottom of the banking crash, and pretended THAT was the IPO price.
2. ₦20,000 / ₦1.15 = 17,391 shares (wrong units)
3. 17,391 x ₦19.10 today = ~₦332k + they added estimated dividends/bonuses to pump it to ₦666k.

That calculation uses a *distressed market bottom, not the price the man in the video actually paid in 2007/2008.*

The man in the video lamenting ₦5,332 after 18 years - that ₦5,332 figure is also not his CSCS value. It's likely:
- Only an unclaimed dividend warrant
- Or a partial balance after he missed bonus/rights issues and registrar updates

If he held 2,500 units from 2007 till today without selling, he should have at least ~₦50k in shares, not ₦5k.

This is the exact error everyone missed - *wrong denominator*.

It's still not to the retail investors advantage seeing this management and boards get the turkey laps of every profits in the form of bonuses, allowance and salaries....

WhizdomXX:
He actually explained it for sane minds, you can go and watch the video.

Wow! What happened? Are you stuck in okomu oil palm shares?

mikeapollo:
Why do you think, Nigeria, as a member of OPEC, should not subsidize the cost pf petroleum to her citizens?
Can you mention one single member of OPEC where price of fuel per income is as expensive as Nigeria?
Can you mention one single member of OPEC that exports crude and imports refined petroelum?

Ordinarily, petroleum products should be cheaper in Nigeria than many African countries because we have crude more than most of tehm. It is called ''comparative advantage''
It is the corruption, inefficiencies and mismanagement of the 4 refineries that is making us buy fuel at high prices.

None. Even Equatorial Guinea whose fuel prices are a bit higher than Nigeria.... Is having a minimum wage rate of 224 dollars compared with Nigeria's 50 dollars per month

ghm:
Could you please add OANDO and let see how it fairs?

OANDO ₦35.80. ₦445,044,566,820

OANDO has Shares Outstanding: 12,431,412,481 ordinary shares

Just reduce the cost of living... Simple!

Advocate for wages reflective cost of living instead

SonofElElyonRet:
You are free to buy 4, 5 or 10 like one IPO like that

But remember Stanbicetf30 crash, okomu crash, presco all occasioned by deep illiquidity

ibibiofirstlady:
I have been a follower of the OP even before I joined the forum. If you cannot critique his position or you lack understanding of the subject matter, it is more beneficial for you to stay mute instead of trolling. The OP clearly do not engaging in trolling that some of you do.

Me troll tonye? He should keep quiet with his OND analysis or go back to school.

Who asked you.... What do you know about the political dynamics at global level?

Who's bankrolling you?

KarlTom:
Market Cap @ cob 24 Sep '26

ARADEL (SP= 1530): ₦6,640,200,000,000
SEPLAT (SP=16000): ₦9,599,112,976,000

Mind the gap...

This is mischievous. Seplat has less than a billion shares in total.

If Aradel shares consolidate from 4.345 billion units down to 600 million units (like seplat) while trading at ₦1,550 per unit, the new share price would be ₦11,224.58 per unit.

pluto09:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/totalenergies-amni-take-final-investment-on-ima-gas-field-offshore-nigeria-2026-09-23/

Upstream no effect on the total energies listed on the ngx which is purely downstream

ACCESSCORP: Tighter Regulation And Impairments Will Shape Future Value Creation Prospects
The provided analysis outlines the current investment outlook for Access Holdings Plc (NGX: ACCESSCORP), presenting a strong value case alongside clear operational risks.


Trading at approximately ₦30.50 per share, the stock currently sits at an 18% discount relative to its estimated fair value of ₦36.05.

Valuation metrics further highlight this discount, as Access Holdings trades at a forward P/E ratio of roughly 2.1x, significantly lower than the broader Nigerian banking sector average of 4.0x to 7.2x. This valuation follows a period of strong historical performance, delivering a 236% total return to shareholders over the past three years alongside consistent growth, with earnings per share projected to continue expanding at 14% annually over the next three years.

Despite these bullish metrics, the investment case remains balanced by notable headwinds.

Bearish sentiment centers on tighter regulatory oversight, rising compliance costs, and elevated impairment risks across the group’s multi-country footprint.

For Access Holdings to realize its fair value potential, the primary catalyst will be its ability to successfully execute its strategy—shifting focus from aggressive scale expansion to sustainable value creation, while keeping risk, capital flexibility, and operating costs under strict control.


What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Although Access Holdings reports very large earnings and assets, the ongoing bar on dividends until foreign subsidiary investments meet the 10% of shareholders’ funds cap can keep capital trapped on the balance sheet and limit support for future earnings growth from shareholder friendly capital returns.

While management targets a move from scale to value, the sharp rise in net impairment charges on financial assets and the increase in impaired loans point to pressure on credit quality that can weigh on net margins and earnings if asset quality does not stabilise.

As Access Holdings extends into more countries and business lines, the higher penalties paid for contraventions of banking regulations signal that the broader footprint may be outpacing control systems, which can pull down net margins through continued regulatory costs.

Even with efforts to improve risk governance, the increase in incidents of cash theft, suppression, pilferage and dry posting raises questions about internal controls, which can affect future operating expenses and net earnings if losses and remediation costs persist.

Despite Access Holdings using a payments subsidiary that processes a very large volume of transactions, shareholder concerns about fintechs and foreign companies winning retail and POS volumes suggest that competitive pressure in digital payments may limit revenue growth and fee income from this segment.

Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

If Access Holdings continues to report very large earnings and profit before tax alongside strong balance sheet expansion, investors may start to price in a higher sustainable earnings base. This could lift the share price above a flat outcome as revenue and earnings expectations reset higher.

If Access Bank resolves its excess foreign subsidiary investment and the dividend block is lifted as guided for 2026, a return to regular dividends funded from existing profits could support a rerating of the stock. Income focused investors may reassess the shares, improving total shareholder returns through higher earnings and cash distribution visibility.


If the company keeps operating expense growth in single digits while revenue and customer deposits grow from levels such as NGN 5.32 trillion and NGN 51.56 trillion of assets, progress toward a cost to income ratio well under 50% could lead to stronger net margins and higher earnings than the bearish case assumes.

Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The assumed bearish price target for Access Holdings is NGN26.55, which represents up to two standard deviations below the consensus price target of NGN39.34. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Access Holdings's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the more bearish end of the spectrum.

However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of NGN57.79, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just NGN26.55.

In order for you to agree with the more bearish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be NGN4090.8 billion, earnings will come to NGN1208.5 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 2.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 27.6%.

Given the current share price of NGN29.15, the analyst price target of NGN26.55 is 9.8% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.

We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

As seen on https://simplywall.st/community/narratives/ng/banks/ngse-accesscorp/access-holdi

Pebblescore02:
Something I find interesting is how many people make major financial decisions, like applying for a loan or even renting a place, without ever having looked at their own credit report. It is treated like something only banks and lenders are allowed to see, when really it belongs to the individual it is about.

I think part of the hesitation comes from assuming it will be complicated or require specialized knowledge to understand. In reality, once you actually look at one, it is mostly a list of past loans, repayment history, and a few identifying details. Nothing about it requires a finance background to read.

The bigger issue is that people only think to check it after something goes wrong, like a rejected application. By then, if there is an error or an outdated entry, it has already cost them time and possibly a missed opportunity.

I keep wondering if more people checked this proactively, whether fewer surprises like sudden rejections would happen in the first place.

Have you ever actually looked at your own credit report, or has it always felt like something only lenders deal with?

How can one check... Which platform

From a Yoruba mother
Nng

Ezeama400:
https://punchng.com/things-to-know-about-surgeon-who-led-nigerias-first-tele-robotic-surgery/?fbclid=IwZnRzaAUgUHlwZG9mBWZkaWQWUO-uesWpjOlbgrvsfnLPJSDPxEKfwGV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkCjY2Mjg1NjgzNzkAAR4XFazSDEc7KZvIBaA2sede1QphuhcML2yGOW1L0Cl0FTNwexPCn9iQpEzbvg_aem_da8YlAFC0wpXKAIo1_s7vg


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqe2IPdp0-w?si=XJ6fhyEe0aB6QOSD

Raider76:
Dangote to support two million women with IPO share ownership


https://thenationonlineng.net/dangote-to-support-two-million-women-with-ipo-share-ownership/

When is Femi Otedola doing same for Christian women?

KarlTom:
Shares wey we dey manage na im you wan short?

Lol....had to read up on what he meant.... He's seriously serious

essentialone1:
Guinea Insurance Plc
Regency Alliance Insurance Plc
Lasaco Assurance Plc


Among top gainers so far today.


Increasing interest flooding gradually into the Insurance sector?

Where's afrininsure

BullBearMkt:
With the way CBN making borrowing easy; stocks & money markets will ultimately benefit

No. CRR is still 45%

pluto09:
No bank will borrow you money to buy oando

Except he's giving an asset as guarantee...like a house in gra Ikeja or VGC ikoyi or central Abuja.... Then banks will borrow him to his own p.eril

faoogoke:
I love to apply if they will allow me by Oando.

Please be careful don't be greedy

Agbalowomeri:
This market go soon craze

Pushing another ATH

You think so? This one UBA is borrowing 30 million to people for Dangote Refinery ipo e

I'm wondering how many homes has adron facilitated up to date?

pluto09:
https://businessday.ng/companies/article/uba-offers-n30m-personal-loan-to-customers-for-dangote-refinery-ipo/

This is how the stock market crash starts..... Some people here have predicted dangote Refinery crashing the ngx this year....

While unleveraged equity investments carry inherent market risk, injecting bank-financed retail leverage into an IPO introduces distinct structural risks for the Nigerian Exchange (NGX):

- Historical Precedent (The 2008 Echo): Aggressive margin and personal lending to retail investors for stock speculation was the single largest driver of the 2007–2008 NGX market crash, which resulted in widespread bank non-performing loans (NPLs) and necessitated the creation of AMCON.

- High-Interest Rate Trap: With Nigerian commercial bank loan rates above 25–30%, post-listing equity performance must yield extraordinary capital gains simply for investors to break even on debt service.


- Forced Liquidation Pressure: If the stock underperforms or experiences post-listing profit-taking, debt-burdened retail investors will be forced to sell rapidly to service their loans, triggering sharp downside price slippage.


- Artificial Demand Distortion: Broad access to N30m personal loans creates artificial over-subscription and inflated demand, driving initial pricing away from fundamental market valuations.

KarlTom:
FTSE

Here is the in-house weightings of the 6 NGX-listed stocks admitted to the FTSE Frontier 50 Index based on investable market capitalization

GTCO (23.45%)
MTNN (23.11%)
ARADEL (21.99%)
ZENITH (19.28%)
FIRSTHOLDCO (7.41%)
DANGCEM (4.75%)

These percentages simply show the % of funds to be allocated to each equity. e.g. for every $100m to be invested in NGX, ARADEL gets ~$23.45m

DANGCEM has a smaller weight because of the low free float which translates to smaller investable market capitalization...

Thanks for the update

GeeKudi:
I pray so. Let me free my funds.

Divert your funds elsewhere

GeeKudi:
Except OANDO

Oando should be bold enough to allow dilution of ownership