₦airaland Forum

Why ADC Lost the AMAC Election

The recently concluded AMAC election was not lost on election day , it was lost long before then.

From the onset, it was clear that the candidate, Moses Paul, was not adequately prepared for the political realities of the FCT. Abuja politics is deeply local and highly structured. It is not driven by emotions, activism, or social media enthusiasm , it is driven by established networks, ethnic voting patterns, grassroots structures, and long-term strategic planning.

Moses Paul entered the race primarily through the backing of the Obidient bloc, who believed positions should be occupied by individuals seen as loyal to Peter Obi. This decision appeared to be influenced by the perception that the sitting House of Representatives member for AMAC, Hon. Joshua Chinedu Obika, had become “disloyal” because of his association with projects commissioned by Nyesom Wike and his relationship with Abure.

However, elections in AMAC have historically followed identifiable voting patterns. When I moved from LP to ADC to contest for Chairman of AMAC, I was in constant communication with Moses as one of the leaders of the Obidient movement. At no point did he indicate interest in contesting until he suddenly picked up nomination forms.

I personally advised him that the pathway to victory in AMAC required strategic ethnic balancing similar to APC’s successful 2016 formula an alliance reflecting the dominant voting blocs, particularly the Gbagyi and Gwandara communities alongside the Igbo bloc. The incumbent chairman, Maikalangu, already had the Gbagyi base secured. The opposition’s only viable strategy was to recreate a balanced ticket capable of disrupting that structure.

His response was that with Peter Obi campaigning for him, victory was assured.

Unfortunately, politics in AMAC does not work that way.
The party leadership, eager to maintain favour with Obi amid coalition negotiations, avoided conducting proper primaries and leaned toward granting Moses the ticket. When I requested a free and fair primary election, it was resisted. Instead of internal democracy, pressure and threats of public backlash were introduced into private discussions. Mo threatened to work against me and the party on twitter if I was given the ticket. I was shocked.

For years, many Igbo stakeholders in FCT had been building toward this election cycle. Structures had been quietly developed since 2022. Community alliances were carefully cultivated. This was seen as a strategic opportunity. However, those long-term efforts were disregarded.

What ultimately happened was not rigging — it was protest voting and structural failure.Hon. Obika, who understands AMAC’s voting terrain deeply, would likely have aligned differently had the ticket reflected strategic balance. Instead, he moved to APC.

Whether one agrees with that move or not, it significantly altered the electoral equation. AMAC politics is council-based and structure-driven. Ignoring that reality was costly.

Campaign management was also deeply flawed. There were complaints from councillorship candidates about lack of inclusion, unilateral decisions, replacement of agents, internal suspicion, and threats of removing duly nominated candidates.

Activism and politics are not the same. Mobilizing crowds for optics is different from mobilizing polling units for votes. Market visits and photo opportunities with national figures do not automatically translate into grassroots electoral strength. Voter apathy in council elections is historically high, and only structured networks bring out reliable voters.

Ethnic arithmetic in AMAC is a political constant. Alienating the two largest voting blocs was what killed ADC. Mo was unpopular.

This was not a stolen election. The margin was too wide to attribute to rigging.

Mo never planned for this election, he took people ideas and felt he could do it, I wish him the best for the future.

There was no way they could win this election...

Dr Mo was fighting with his councillors, he didn't most involved in his campaign. No deputy. Court case.

He was fighting those who would campaign for him.

Emotions can never win you elections. There was no rigging. Some of these councillorship candidates are ready to speak out.

Let me start from the candidate in Garki ward that Mo kept fighting and wanted to change him. The case is at the court of appeal ..or the Kabusa Ward candidate. People bought form and won primaries, Mo wanted to change them to put obidients people...no regard for the rule of law.. ...He was running a one man show because he believes that everybody loves Obi and will vote for him .....

Leave emotions and be strategic. Gbayis and Hausas already had PDP and APC covered. ADC next option was Igbo and gwandara....but Mo spoilt everything, he has no business with that ticket ....I hope lessons have been learnt

Deputy was a placeholder

When I refused to accept the deputy, the lady uploaded her name so as beat Inec deadline as she was the one uploading names to Inec.

Along the line, she no gree step down. Did you ever see her on campaign with Mo?

He picked another man and they were fighting in court till election finish

"There are 2,822 polling units in the Federal Capital Territory. ADC lost in 2,814 polling units and won in only 8"

If the above statement does not wake up the ADC nothing will, those that hijacked the party in the FCT killed the party in the FCT.

Losing in 2,814 out of 2,822 is the new losing record.

ADC leaders who want to battle Apc on all fronts must do everything they can to push the pressure group to the back seat.

They should be learning rather than taking on leadership roles.

If they do not do that , the party will crash even before take off.

The party's direction is too risky and dangerous, given the party's refusal to tell Peter Obi the truth about his supporters, I see the party collapsing after the primaries.

You're right most annoying now despite all the calibre of people in the party they keep petting Peter Obi as if he is the beautiful bride, when he is actually empty.

By 2027 Gringory and his movement who are actually
IPOB separatists masquerading. will be totally eliminated from political landscape of Nigeria.

Good leaders of the SE like Umahi, Soludo, Uzodinma etc have all seen how dangerous they are and aligned with other Nigerians.

If you are wise, as a politician now is the Best time to leave the ADC and make peace with APC..

ADC is already destined to fail, since their formation, they’ve not been able to get anything thing right. Associating with such failures is at the detriment of your political career 🤝👌

Why this hate Hamma? Is it because Obi don’t want to VP to Atiku anymore? No politician in northern Nigeria is more qualified than OBI, if Obi were to come from northern Nigeria by now you will be worshipping him just the way you all worship Buhari in blessed memory

They have removed @emmaikumeh and me from the ADC Media Strategy Group.

This is actually on Emma. He begged and asked me to give these people a chance.

To think I was still defending these people up until a fortnight ago.

Wow.

I am just seeing this. We spoke a few minutes ago.

Please brother, pull this post down let’s resolve. It’s just a gap in family communication and I believe family issues should be resolved internally 🙏

🤝

Everyone who was not obedient has been thrown out. It's no longer funny because ADC looks to have been hijacked by some forces.

This is not true sir.

hoygift:
Just so you know, Trump no Sabi who be Dangote.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu @officialABAT was joined by Vice President Kashim Shettima @officialSKSM in hosting State Governors for Iftar—the traditional breaking of fast during the holy month of Ramadan—at the State House Banquet Hall on Monday evening.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu hosts State Governors for break of fast at the State House Banquet Hall. pic.twitter.com/kKWToMcirG

— Daddy D.O🇳🇬 (@DOlusegun) February 23, 2026

Tonight, I hosted our State Governors to an interfaith breaking of the fast as Muslims observe Ramadan and Christians journey through Lent.

In this sacred season for two of the major faiths in our dear country, we are reminded that beyond politics and policy, we are first a people of conscience.

I commended the Governors for their efforts so far and for the various outreaches they have carried out this holy month. But I also challenged them to do more.

To reach the young man who feels forgotten.
To lift the woman who carries her family on tired shoulders.
To touch the communities at the grassroots where hope sometimes flickers.

Development must not recognise religion.
Compassion must not recognise tribe.
Opportunity must not recognise status.

I am determined to rescue this country. And as long as we work together in delivering hope to our citizens, the best is yet to come for Nigeria.

What I promised Nigerians will not be postponed.

Security is the foundation of prosperity. Without it, farms cannot flourish, businesses cannot grow, and families cannot sleep in peace.

We will establish state police to curb insecurity.

This is not about politics. It is about practicality. It is about empowering states with the tools to protect their people while strengthening our national framework.

We must be bold enough to reform what is not working. We must be united enough to protect what we hold dear.

Nigeria will be safer. Nigeria will be stronger. And together, we must commit to making it so.

Nigeria First.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu
President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria

Tinubu gave us first minister in years, gave our youth massive opportunities, gave our villages projects and you say make we vote who give us outsiders as candidates?
Reason am.

Jagaba don win unah hearts. Such a politician.

Bro visit Rubochi, in years we've never had a single electric pole there, but Tinubu came in and commissioned a solar project for us.
About 80% of houses now enjoy 20hours free electricity.
Funny enough the current chairman is PDP.
But he's been sent home with his candidate.

This is just one of many ooo..

The road projects you see in the urban areas didn't stop there, even the rural areas enjoyed the benefits..

I didn't even talk about how much the youths have been involved too.

I'm telling you the presidency would be a bigger shock.

The Gafere community in the Kuje Area Council celebrates with Hon. Samuel Danjuma, demonstrating that the voice of the people has been heard through the APC victory.
APC is here to stay. pic.twitter.com/48sf10Fimv

— Dr. Gaza Kure (@realgazakure) February 23, 2026

Dear Nigerians,

Ignore those loudly claiming the FCT elections were rigged. They are merely fabricating excuses to mask their own shortcomings and failures.

As a proud Gbagyi son, I am delighted to see our local communities united in genuine celebration, dancing and rejoicing… pic.twitter.com/srWFXn2sf9

— Dr. Gaza Kure (@realgazakure) February 22, 2026