₦airaland Forum

With party primaries concluded, the 2027 presidential race is taking shape as a contest dominated by familiar faces and familiar political battles. OLUFEMI ADEDIRAN writes

With party primaries concluded and campaigns set to begin in August, the contours of the 2027 presidential election are gradually becoming clearer.

While 11 candidates are expected on the ballot, political analysts believe the contest is already narrowing into a three-way race involving President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress and former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress.

Other candidates include Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, contesting on the platform of the Allied Peoples Movement; Human Rights Activist, Omoyele Sowore (African Action Congress); former Governor of Cross River State, Donald Duke (People’s Redemption Party); Aliyu Bin Abbas (Action Democratic Party); and Adekunle Omoaje (Action Alliance).

While the Kabiru Turaki-led faction of Peoples Democratic Party picked former President Goodluck Jonathan as its candidate, the Abdulrahman Mohammed faction named an ex-senator, Prof Sandy Onor, as its consensus presidential candidate.

Tinubu’s incumbency advantage

Emerging the candidate of the ruling APC with 10.99 million votes, Tinubu is making a statement ahead of the 2027 election. In 2023, Tinubu defeated 17 other candidates, scoring 8,794,726 votes.

As the sitting president, Tinubu enters the race with the advantage of incumbency, a factor that has historically played a major role in presidential elections. Beyond the authority of office, he benefits from access to the Federal Government’s political and administrative machinery, resources that can shape mobilisation, outreach and visibility during campaigns.

The ruling party, with Tinubu’s backing, has won over 10 sitting governors from opposition parties, a development analysts say reflects a steady consolidation of political power ahead of 2027. Political observers note that such movements often reshape local party structures, influence grassroots mobilisation and tilt state-level machinery in favour of the ruling party.

However, some analysts caution that defections do not automatically translate into voter loyalty at the polls.

Atiku makes sixth attempt at presidency

Seventy-nine-year-old Atiku is making his sixth and perhaps final attempt at Nigeria’s presidency. His return once again places him at the centre of opposition politics, reinforcing his status as one of the country’s most persistent political figures.

Atiku, who served as vice president to former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 and 2003, contested under the platform of the defunct Action Congress in 2007, sought the PDP presidential ticket in 2011, contested the APC primary in 2015, and flew the PDP flag in the 2019 and 2023 elections. He was defeated by Tinubu in 2023 after polling 6,984,520 votes to finish second. The protracted crisis within the PDP later forced him out of the party, leading him to ADC.

His supporters argue that his experience, national reach and deep-rooted connections make him one of the few candidates capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent. His influence remains particularly strong in parts of the North-East and North-West.

However, critics say his repeated presidential bids may have created voter fatigue, particularly among younger Nigerians calling for generational transition in leadership.

Peter Obi seeks second breakthrough

The former Anambra State governor is one of the few politicians who have altered the country’s electoral landscape in recent years. His 2023 presidential campaign transformed him into a national political figure. He won 12 states, including the Federal Capital Territory, with 6,101,533 votes in his first presidential attempt.

Obi is hoping for a stronger performance in 2027 with the adoption of former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, as his running mate. Analysts say the pairing could strengthen Obi’s appeal across the South and key northern blocs, particularly given Kwankwaso’s influence in Kano and parts of the North-West.

Jonathan’s potential comeback

The possibility of former president Jonathan returning to the ballot has generated considerable interest. Though he has yet to confirm or deny interest in contesting, his status as a former president gives him instant national visibility.

Jonathan continues to enjoy goodwill among many Nigerians who remember his administration as relatively stable compared to successive governments. However, political observers advised him against contesting, warning that the political terrain has changed significantly since he left office in 2015.

Candidates’ geopolitical standings

Like previous elections, geopolitical calculations are becoming central to campaign strategies, with candidates weighing regional loyalties, historical voting patterns and power-sharing expectations.

In 2023, Tinubu won three geopolitical zones — North-West, North-Central and South-West — while Obi won the South-South and South-East, and Atiku won the North-East.

Tinubu placed first or second in all six geopolitical zones, while Atiku and Obi each finished third or lower in three zones. Tinubu retains a strong base in the South-West, where his political influence remains entrenched. The region is expected to remain a reliable support bloc for the APC, bolstered by control of key state structures and longstanding alliances.

The ruling party is also banking on consolidating gains in parts of the North, where recent defections and coalition-building efforts have strengthened its presence.

Meanwhile, Atiku continues to command significant influence in the North-East and sections of the North-West. However, his challenge lies in expanding acceptance in the South, where observers say the zoning arrangement does not favour him.

Obi maintains a dominant presence in the South-East and parts of the South-South, as well as urban centres where his 2023 performance reshaped voting patterns. His support base remains particularly strong among young voters and professionals, although analysts say his path to victory depends on making deeper inroads into northern Nigeria.

As political parties prepare for full-scale campaigns in August, analysts argue that several factors will shape the presidential election scheduled for Saturday, January 16, 2027.

Chief among these is the state of the economy. Rising poverty index, inflation, unemployment and increasing cost of living are expected to remain central issues in voter decision-making, particularly among urban households and young voters.

Closely tied to this is the performance of the incumbent administration. Tinubu’s ability to convince Nigerians that ongoing policy adjustments are delivering long-term benefits will likely play a major role in determining whether he secures re-election.

Analysts also point to opposition fragmentation as a critical factor. With multiple factions within major parties and competing presidential candidates across different platforms, the opposition appears divided, raising concerns about vote splitting that could favour the ruling party.

The Director-General of Strategic Planning and Implementation of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Tony Obizoba, said the 2027 contest is shaping up as a repeat of the 2023 election, driven largely by opposition fragmentation.

He argued that the inability of opposition figures to sustain a united coalition has strengthened the position of the APC, particularly as competing factions continue to emerge across major parties.

Obizoba maintained that the ruling party currently holds a strategic advantage due to incumbency, access to resources and expanding alliances across key regions.

According to him, unless the opposition resolves its internal disagreements and builds a coherent alliance, the 2027 election may once again favour the incumbent.

“It is a smooth sail for the current government with the way things are going. It’s a smooth sail. I don’t think there is anything to be stressed about because they (opposition candidates) will end up dividing the votes, and the incumbent will also have his way because he has the resources to muzzle some of the battleground states,” he said.

Giving insights into the forthcoming election, a Professor of Comparative Politics at the University of Ilorin, Emmanuel Ojo, said although Tinubu remained a major political force, his political credentials had suffered due to his administration’s perceived inability to decisively address insecurity and worsening economic hardship.

He argued that rising inflation, unemployment and persistent security threats had continued to shape public perception of the administration.

“After being there for more than three years, it is unfortunate that his (Tinubu) democratic credential has suffered. The way APC administered the primaries, if a ruling party cannot manage internal crises and organize primaries, then what do we expect of INEC in the general election,” Ojo said.

On the major contenders, he questioned Atiku’s renewed ambition, citing age and repeated attempts at the presidency as potential disadvantages.


He also expressed skepticism about Obi’s political trajectory, describing his movement across platforms as political opportunism, while questioning the depth of his national policy proposals.

Turning to Jonathan, Ojo described him as a “gentleman politician” whose potential return would depend largely on legal clarity and personal willingness, although he advised against another presidential bid.

He argued that Nigeria is yet to produce an ideal candidate capable of addressing insecurity, corruption and economic instability.

On his part, political analyst Omenazu Jackson argued that the next election would largely be determined by Tinubu’s performance.

Jackson, who is the Chancellor of the International Society for Social Justice and Human Rights, stressed that the country’s next leadership must prioritise national dignity, economic stability and security restoration.

He warned that worsening insecurity and economic hardship were eroding citizens’ loyalty to the state and weakening national cohesion.

“If the issue of hunger and insecurity is not addressed in this country, I don’t see Tinubu coming back to power. Tinubu should use the remaining period left to address perennial hunger and insecurity. If these two issues are not addressed, I can tell you authoritatively, that there may be no Nigeria by next year.

“Anybody thinking that he can ride roughshod on Nigerians again, do all the abracadabra and go back to power, may be losing out completely because the strength of the commoners is the robe of the nobles,” Jackson said.

Offering a different perspective, the spokesperson for the 7th House of Representatives, Zakari Mohammed, argued that Tinubu may struggle to replicate his 2023 electoral performance, particularly in the North and parts of the South-West.

He contended that the political dynamics that delivered victory to Tinubu in 2023 had changed considerably, citing economic hardship, insecurity and the emergence of multiple southern presidential candidates as factors that could reshape voting patterns.

According to him, Tinubu benefited significantly from northern support in the last election but may find it difficult to secure a similar level of backing in 2027.

He argued that the North could become a major battleground between Atiku and Obi, with Atiku particularly well-positioned to benefit from his longstanding political networks and influence across the region.

Mohammed further predicted that the proliferation of presidential candidates from Southern Nigeria could fragment votes traditionally expected to favour the incumbent in the South-West.

“If you look at the northern part of Nigeria, 63 per cent of the votes that brought Tinubu to power came from Northern Nigeria. Will he get that number today? No.

“There is Sowore, Makinde, Donald Duke, Goodluck Jonathan, the president himself and others. You have not less than six or seven candidates from the South, while Atiku is virtually standing alone in the North,” he said.

A video has emerged showing the retired Nigerian Defence Headquarters (DHQ) former Director of Defence Information, Major General Rabe Abubakar (retd.), and his wife in captivity after they were abducted along the Matazu axis of Katsina State.

In the footage, which has been circulating on social media and security circles, the retired senior military officer and his wife were seen speaking under apparent duress, pleading for mercy and appealing for their release.

The video is the first visual confirmation since reports emerged that the former military spokesperson and his wife were kidnapped by armed men while travelling through the Matazu Local Government Area of Katsina State.

In the clip, the abductors reportedly positioned the retired general and his wife in an undisclosed forest location, where they were made to speak while surrounded by armed men.

Security sources familiar with the situation said the kidnappers appear to be using the video as part of a negotiation strategy, with claims circulating that a notorious bandit kingpin identified as “Kachalla Maha” is involved in the ongoing talks.

According to emerging claims within local security networks, the abductors are allegedly demanding a prisoner exchange involving some of their associates in custody in return for the freedom of the retired general and his wife.

The development comes days after SaharaReporters reported that Maj. Gen. Rabe Abubakar and his wife were intercepted and abducted while travelling in Katsina State. Their driver reportedly escaped the attack with gunshot injuries, while their vehicle was later recovered and taken to a police division in the area.

At the time, security authorities had not issued an official statement confirming the abduction, even as messages circulated among military and security contacts raising alarm over the incident.

Katsina State, alongside neighbouring Zamfara, has remained one of the epicentres of banditry in northwestern Nigeria, with repeated cases of mass kidnappings, ransom negotiations, and armed attacks on highways and rural communities.

The latest video has further intensified concerns over the safety of abducted high-profile victims in the region, as well as renewed questions about the operational strength of armed groups operating across forest corridors in the North-West.

As of the time of filing this report, neither the Nigerian military nor the Katsina State Police Command had issued an updated official statement on the release of the video or the condition of the abducted retired general and his wife.

First images of the kidnapped retired Army General kidnapped with his wife along matazu highway Katsina... they are passing bandits kingpin kachalla maha request to release his boys in exchange for the retired General and his wife freedom pic.twitter.com/Dvj2I7r89o

— m. u (@secmxx) June 6, 2026

The Emir of Argungu, Alhaji Muhammad Samaila Mera, has called on his subjects to legally acquire weapons to protect their communities against persistent attacks by bandits.

He also urged communities in the emirate to remain vigilant and take proactive measures against terrorists and criminal elements that often invade the areas.

The monarch made the call during a meeting with district heads, village heads, and ward heads at his palace in Argungu.

He added that communities should consider raising funds collectively to purchase legally approved weapons for self-defence.

“If you acquire such weapons legally, make sure the bandits are aware that your community possesses the means to defend itself. This alone can serve as a deterrent and discourage attacks,” he said.

He stressed that Islam does not encourage people to remain helpless in the face of violence.

“It is not right for a Muslim to remain passive while criminals kill people, kidnap innocent citizens, and rape our women. Be prepared to defend yourselves, your families, and your communities against any attack,” the Emir stated.

The royal father lamented that many communities had become vulnerable because they lack the means to defend themselves.

He said, “When bandits attack, people start running, including village heads. This is happening because communities do not have adequate means of self-defence.”

He clarified that he was not encouraging communities to take the law into their own hands or engage in acts of terrorism, but rather advocating lawful self-defence, noting that the security challenge has become too overwhelming for security agencies alone to handle.

He said it was disheartening for communities to continue to lose lives without any form of resistance, while warning against ethnic violence and extrajudicial killings.

The emir warned that he would not support anyone carrying arms to attack other ethnic groups or engage in unlawful killings.

He said many of the attacks are reprisals, he therefore urged the communities not to carry out revenge attacks against innocent people because every unlawful killing only breeds another cycle of revenge.

The emir said that, although many members of the Lakurawa group had left the area, they had allegedly left behind armed bandits who continue to terrorize communities and maintain links with their former collaborators.

He called on communities across the Argungu Emirate to remain vigilant, cooperate with security agencies, and uphold the fear of God in all their dealings.

Isaac Fayose has slammed his elder brother and former governor of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose over the latter’s recent comments on the abduction of school children in Oyo State.

The former governor, during an interview with Channels TV, alleged that the Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde may have orchestrated the abduction of about 42 students and teachers.

He claimed that the Oyo State Governor has the means to stop security crisis in his state but decided to blackmail the president.

Fayose’s claim is currently generating backlash on social media with netizens attacking him for defending President Bola Tinubu government amid the deteriorating security situation.

Reacting, Isaac Fayose in a video he posted on his official Facebook page, said he is ashamed of his elder brother.

Isaac, a good governance advocate claimed that the former governor is struggling to remain relevant in the country by supporting the All Progressives Congress, APC-led government.

He said, “Four weeks ago, they kidnapped people in Ekiti State, why didn’t you tell the governor that he is collecting security votes and should protect the people?

“My brother, people are looking at you like what is this man turning to. Do you mean that people are being killed in Katsina, Kwara and other APC states because their governors pocketed their security votes?

“If you don’t have anything to say, please remain quiet like every other former governor, it is not by force to be relevant”.

Isaac Fayose m0cks his brother, Ayo Fayose for saying he believes that the abduct!on at Oyo School was orchestrated by the Oyo State Government to blackmail President Tinubu. pic.twitter.com/OM7vTsZZut

— Oyindamola🙄 (@dammiedammie35) June 2, 2026

The National Secretary of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Dr Ajibola Basiru has revealed that the party primary election is not a true avenue of picking its candidate but through a selection by party hierarchy.

He disclosed this in a viral video on social media, where he appeared to be holding a meeting with members of the party.

In the video, Basiru who was speaking in Yoruba language, disclosed that the party candidates for President, Senate and House of Representatives will be uploaded by the National Secretariat, hence, described mockery about some aspirants not winning primary as a mere joke.

His words, “If you claim candidate(s) did not win primary, who will upload the name(s), it is mere child’s play. Claims that someone emerge in primary is a ruse, we know there is no primary.

“We don’t hold primary in our party. We pick those that we want to pick. The claim of a winner of a primary is false”, he said.

In the said video, he even asked a former lawmaker if he emerged through a primary election and the lawmaker replied that he was picked inside he government house.

Meanwhile a statement that emerged from the meeting revealed that the APC scribe cautioned party members from insulting or abusing civil servants in the State as they are critical to the party’s success at the August 15 governorship poll.

“Civil servants are enlightened people. They are respected in their communities, and people listen to them because they understand governance and leadership.

I have enormous respect for them, and nobody has the authority to insult them in the name of our party,” he said.

Bashiru appealed to workers in the state not to direct their grievances against the APC over comments made by individuals acting on their own.

“I want to appeal to our civil servants not to use their influence against the APC because of careless statements from some individuals.

“Those comments are personal opinions and not the official position of our party,” he said.

Bashiru also warned APC members and candidates against complacency ahead of the governorship election, insisting that victory would only come through hard work, unity and reconciliation within the party.

“I don’t believe in automatic victory. There is nothing like that in politics. We must work in every ward and every polling unit, and we must appeal to those who are aggrieved,” he said.

Primaries don’t decide candidates, @OfficialAPCNg leadership does, says national secretary pic.twitter.com/pdnwXpBzca

— Vanguard Newspapers (@vanguardngrnews) May 31, 2026

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Amb. Yusuf Tuggar, has reaffirmed his loyalty and support for President Bola Tinubu’s policies, saying he did not criticise or question the President as misrepresented in some reports.

Tuggar also dismissed interpretations of his recent Hausa-language interview, describing them as distortions of his remarks.

In a statement issued on Sunday in Bauchi by his media aide, Abdulkadir Alkassim, the former minister said the claims circulating in sections of the media were false and misleading.

“For the avoidance of doubt, Ambassador Tuggar did not criticise or question President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in any way. Any suggestion to the contrary is false and a deliberate distortion of his remarks,” the statement read.

He reiterated that Tuggar remained a loyal supporter of the President and fully committed to the Renewed Hope Agenda and the success of the All Progressives Congress (APC)-led administration.

According to Alkassim, the interview in question focused on internal party matters in Bauchi State, particularly the need to uphold transparency, fairness and internal democracy in candidate selection processes.

He said Tuggar maintained that party members should be allowed to freely choose candidates through credible and competitive primaries.

The aide further stated that the former minister expressed concern over alleged attempts by the Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Prof. Ali Pate, to influence the APC governorship process in the state, instead of allowing aspirants test their popularity at the polls.

“His contention was simply that all interested candidates should have a fair opportunity to participate in an open contest,” he said.

Alkassim noted that President Tinubu had already directed all political appointees seeking elective office to resign within the stipulated timeframe, adding that any aspirant willing to contest should comply with the directive and seek a party mandate.

He added that Tuggar’s comments were aimed at strengthening the APC in Bauchi State and ensuring fairness in its internal democratic processes.

According to him, the former minister believes that addressing grievances and promoting inclusion would enhance party unity and electoral success.

“Amb. Tuggar remains steadfast in his support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, committed to party unity, and dedicated to advancing policies that promote development, prosperity, and good governance for the people of Bauchi State and Nigeria,” the statement added.

Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, one of three aspirants seeking the Presidential ticket of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) for the 2027 election, has announced his withdrawal from the continuous process of the exercise, citing concerns over alleged irregularities.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, Hayatu-Deen said reports of widespread vote rigging from different parts of the country had raised serious doubts about the credibility of the process.

“I will not be attending the announcement of the ADC Presidential Election Results today. I am concerned by reports from across the country of widespread vote rigging, some of which I myself observed, and will therefore be taking advice on my next steps,” he stated.

The development comes amid intense competition for the ADC presidential ticket involving former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi, and Hayatu-Deen.

The party had earlier described its primary as a transparent and democratic process.

Hayatu-Deen’s decision not to attend the announcement of the results may heighten tensions within the opposition party as collation continues nationwide.

Daily Trust reports that arrangements for the announcement of results have been finalised and the Abuja venue is fully set for the exercise.

Atiku, the leading aspirant, has won in at least five states as of the time of filing this report.

Tinubu’s N65.9trn debt in 24 months exceeds five times Nigeria’s total borrowing in 55 years — Oye

Says with N159.28trn current debt, every Nigerian owes N670,000

THE Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics LTD/GTE, Dele Oye, has lamented the unprecedented rise in public debt under the current administration, noting that the N65.9 trillion borrowed by the Bola Tinubu administration in the last 24 months exceeds more than five times the total debt Nigeria incurred in the first 55 years of its independence.

Oye, who is the immediate past chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN), noted that while successive governments accumulated debt over decades, the current administration alone has added N65.9 trillion in two years, compared to just N12 trillion accumulated over the first five and a half decades of Nigeria’s independence.

He revealed that with Nigeria’s total public debt of N159.28 trillion as of April 2026, according to the Debt Management Office, every Nigerian owes N670,000, decrying the speed at which the nation’s debt profile has expanded in recent years.

Oye cautioned that unless urgent measures are taken to strengthen revenue generation and fiscal discipline, the rising debt burden could place long-term pressure on public finances and constrain government spending on critical sectors.

He said, “Cast your mind back to 2006. Nigeria had just pulled off one of the most celebrated fiscal feats in African history. President Olusegun Obasanjo paid $12 billion to extinguish $30 billion in Paris Club debt. Nigeria was, briefly, externally debt-free. The Excess Crude Account was flush.

“The future looked fundable. Twenty years later, that golden moment reads like a fairy tale. Under President Goodluck Jonathan, debt crept back to N12.06 trillion by 2015 — manageable, but the warning signs were already blinking. Then came the Buhari years.

“In eight years, the debt exploded from N12.06 trillion to N87.38 trillion, a 620 percent increase. The Central Bank was pressed into printing money through ‘Ways and Means’ advances; N23.7 trillion of this was eventually securitised into long-term bonds, effectively converting a government overdraft into a generational liability.

“President Bola Tinubu’s administration has added a further N65.9 trillion in just two years. To put that in perspective: it took Nigeria’s first 55 years of independence to accumulate N12 trillion in debt. The current administration has added more than five times that amount in 24 months.”

For more than a year, a conscientious, cosmopolitan retired senior military officer from the North has told me that his worst fear for Nigeria is the prospect of terrorists and bandits from the North extending their bloodstained tentacles into Yorubaland. He said it would provoke the sort of communal convulsion that would take on a regional and ethnic hue. He doubts Nigeria can survive it.

When news emerged of the abduction of students, teachers and other residents, including the chilling, tear-jerking slaughter of a teacher known as Michael Oyedokun in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State by armed terrorists, he reached out to me again yesterday to say his worst fears appeared to be materializing.

Before he reached out, my own thoughts had gone to what he had been telling me immediately after I read the news. I kept thinking: How will the people of the Southwest react to this heartrending incident?

What happened wasn’t a run-of-the-mill terrorist or bandit attack. It was a vile, criminal spectacle calculated to elicit raw emotions. It’s the kind of tragedy that every part of the North has endured in silence for years.

Several people forwarded to me the video of Oyedokun’s beheading. I couldn’t bring myself to watch it. I simply lack the mental and emotional strength to put myself through that kind of soul-depressing anguish. Yes, I confess to being a wimp when it comes to issues like that.

Even so, the story of Oyedokun’s decapitation, especially the last words he was reported to have uttered before he was beheaded, still haunts me. What sort of insensate beasts in human form snuff out life like that for fun?

My older friend’s fear is that, human beings being human beings, villainy from outsiders tends to be refracted through primordial lenses. And recriminatory responses to assaults against a group identity tend to target innocent people living among the victims, which provokes an endless cycle of unjustified retaliatory violence.

We have seen that in the tragic rupture of the centuries-old relational harmony between Hausa and Fulani people in northern Nigeria, about which the country seems oblivious, but which has spilled over to social media and is becoming the inspiration for so-called Hausa-Zalla [Hausa-only] associations.

Years of sustained rural and urban banditry in the Northwest, particularly in Zamfara, Kebbi and Sokoto, have caused many Hausa people to interpret what is happening to them in ethnic terms, which is perplexing to outsiders because the depth and breadth of the ethnic and cultural alchemy of the two groups is such that only self-conscious genealogy can tell them apart.

Ordinary Fulani people in rural Northwest Nigeria, who are not bandits and who are themselves victims of the horrors of bandits who happen to be Fulani, became targets of attacks by Hausa victims of persistent banditry who had been stumped by the steadily escalating virulence of attacks against them.

The tit-for-tat violent attacks between Hausa and Fulani people in the Northwest are off the radar of the institutional media because, as I pointed out in my December 29, 2018, column titled “Triple Jeopardy of the Unending Zamfara Mass Murders,” the media “lack ready-made, stereotypical mental representations with which to frame the conflict, so they either avoid reporting it altogether or minimize its horrors if they report it at all. The news media thrive on Manichean binaries, conflictual differences, and sensation. The Zamfara mass slaughters don’t lend themselves to that.”

Of course, under Buhari’s presidency, many northern Muslims had an incentive to conceal the recriminatory violence that went on between the Hausa and the Fulani in rural areas. They did not want to “embarrass” or undermine Buhari. That incentive is gone now.

If attacks like the tragic incident at Community High School, Ahoro-Esinle, persist, extend to other parts of Yorubaland and cause serious threats to education, the most prized commodity in the region, something is going to give, and it won’t be pretty for Nigeria. That was the core of my friend’s concern.

Human beings, in general, do not interpret identical acts through identical moral categories. They interpret them through group identity, threat perception and prior suspicion. Had an armed gang of Yoruba youths done exactly what the terrorists from the North did in Ahoro-Esinle, Yoruba people would likely say, “These are criminals,” “These are area boys,” “These are jobless youths,” or “The state has failed.” The crime would be individualized.

But because the perpetrators are northerners, it is more likely to be ethnicized or Islamized. The perpetrators cease to be merely criminals. They become representatives of a larger feared category.

As I said, this isn’t unique to Yoruba people. It’s a human trait. And it’s not hypocrisy. Were the situation to be reversed, that is, an armed gang that happened to be Yoruba abducting and slaughtering innocents in any part of the North, it would be interpreted in ethnic terms.

Scholars actually have a name for this. It’s called intergroup attribution bias. Some call it the ultimate attribution error. It means people tend to explain bad behavior by in-group members as situational, individual or exceptional, but explain bad behavior by out-group members as revealing something about the out-group’s character, culture or hidden agenda.

As I despair over the disquieting prospect of terrorist and bandit attacks by northerners devolving into a theater of mutually assured destruction, I recall President Tinubu’s self-professed raison d’être for being president in his memorable 2022 “Emi lo kan” speech in Abeokuta, and it gives me a little relief.

He said the irreducible minimum condition he gave Muhammadu Buhari for supporting his presidential aspiration in 2015 was that Buhari “must not joke with Yoruba interests” [“Mo sì sọ fún un pé kí ó má fi ọ̀rọ̀ Yorùbá ṣeré.”]

He also framed his presidency as the turn of the Yoruba. People don’t seem to realize that before he said “Emi lo kan” [It is my turn], he first said “Yoruba lo kan” [It is the turn of the Yoruba]. “This time, it is the turn of the Yoruba,” he said. “And among the Yoruba, it is my turn.”

Especially with the appointment of Major General Adeyinka Famadewa (rtd) as Special Adviser on Homeland Security, perhaps Tinubu will prove, as he told Buhari not to “joke with Yoruba interests,” that his presidency won’t countenance terroristic banditry in Yorubaland.

Should he do that, that would be one instance when I would celebrate ethnic particularism. It would be a positive use of ethnic solidarity for at least two reasons.

One, seeing the government aggressively and concertedly go after these bloodthirsty scum of the earth whose only reason for existing is to visit violence, death and misery on innocent people will reduce the temptation toward retaliatory violence against innocent northerners in the Southwest, which could propel reprisals against innocent southerners in the North.

We all know that in moments of inflamed national passions, most southerners can’t tell Hausa, Fulani, Nupe or Angas people apart. And northerners lump Yoruba, Igbo, Bini, Efik and other southerners into one undifferentiated group.

Second, if the terrorists from the North who have crossed over to the Southwest are vanquished, they won’t be alive to torment our people anywhere. And, of course, they won’t be alive to “repent,” be “de-radicalized” and “re-integrated” back into society, from where they wreak more havoc.

Yoruba lo kan shouldn’t be limited to exclusivist elite appointments. It should manifest in protecting the people from the existential threats posed by terrorists and bandits. That would, interestingly, benefit everyone in the country. I hope Yorubaland is where terrorism and banditry finally go to die.