₦airaland Forum

raumdeuter:
There is nothing like South and North in elections in Nigeria. Last election Obi won South, Atiku won North, Yet Tinubu won the election, Despite the Naira change problems, despite the fuel scarcity, despite Buhari being closeted anti Tinubu. Now you think Tinubu sitting on the chair with the power of the president office wont do better at the election?

The North wanted power back in 2023 too and they would have gotten it if it was just Atiku vs Tinubu. What won for Tinubu was having 4 top candidates

Come 2027 if we put out the same lineup Tinubu will still win, People interested in taking power away from Tinubu should be working on aligning together. Splitting your votes only favor Tinubu

Tinubu got his votes from the North, with the showing up to protest yesterday, I doubt if he is winning if elections are held today.
The bolded is you agreeing that he would have to rig himself back into power

raumdeuter:
If the same contestants come out today like in 2023, the numbers wont be much different. Atiku will do better thugh but Tinubu will still win. APC still has loyalists and ground game in Kano which will get them 2nd in almost all the states they dont win

We knew how Buhari acted towards elections, Tinubu as incumbent will be different. He will pick more states simply because he has more incumbent powers

The only thing that tooples the chart is if Kwankwanso or Obi drops out because their votes are all going to Atiku

Chairman Noo. If election is held today Tinubu is toast, only hope he has is maybe with rigging. Obi will win in the South, Tinubu will not win in the North... These guys want their power back, they probably thought he might do a Yar'Adua but baba is looking healthier since the election.

raumdeuter:
The North will want power back in 2027, actually they never intended to cede power in the first place

NE 6 states Tinubu won 1
NW 7 states Tinubu won 2

So of 13 core Northern states Tinubu won 3.

I said this here some weeks ago, and people said it's improbable after 8yrs of Buhari. Make we sha dey watch am dey go...

It would seem that Majority of Igbo's don't hate Tinubu, abi why are they not protesting? Well maybe Tinubu has bribed them with border opening, cos majority are more concerned about business than politics.

raumdeuter:
Why Buhari no complete the North 2nd term which Yar Adua started

Chief, wasn't it the sentiment employed to get rid of Jonathan? it's North vs South, hence after Tinubu 4yrs the South would have had 8yrs more, and the North are within their rights to request that it is their turn.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Power needs to shift to the North ke?

This is not true for 2027, my Chief
[/color]

Tinubu is completing south's 2nd Term, Jonathan did the 1st Term

OasisX:


....let's agree rotation starts from 1999,
GEJ 4yrs = Yar'Adua 4yrs [he was the one elected in 2007 not GEJ]

They where both elected, if not the argument could have been made that a new election be called with the passing of YarAdua, it's a joint ticket, I guess you are joking.

larride:
Lol. Tinubu is not Jonathan.

I agree wholeheartedly, hence I suspect his stance on the Rivers situation, somewhat Kano & Kaduna ensuring no godfather has absolute control of those important states gives him options for negotiation when the time comes.

OasisX:


......Nigeria didn’t start in 1999, neither the democratic government. Shehu Shagari was elected in 1979 and spent 4yrs. He was re-elected for 2nd term and if not Buhari, he would have spent 8yrs.

So the 4yrs Shehu Shagari spent didn’t count for the North bá?!

Sheikh how far back do you want to go? It is agreed in-principle that rotation started from 1999.

raumdeuter:
Tinubu has a second term to vie for from 2027 to 2031, By 2031 its the turn of the North

Chairman, Tinubu became president majorly due a to huge support of the power rotation sentiment, North vs South, after 4yrs of Tinubu, means South has had 8yrs more, if the North pulls such sentiment Tinubu is a gonna, cos he never won the south, if election is taken today he would still lose the South to Peter Obi, so I really do not see where he is going to get his numbers from in 2027 if such scenario was to play out.

larride:
I dont understand sir, after Buhari 8yrs and Tinubu just completed 4yrs, power will go back to the North again? I dont understand what you are driving at sir?

Buhari 8yrs=Obj 8yrs
Jonathan +YarAdua=Cancels even though Jona had more
Jonathan 4yr+ Tinubu 4yrs= Power Needs to shift to the North.
Similar sentiment was used against Jonathan, so I won't be surprised.

Segedinho:
Yeah..d shock of the wave was/is devastating.

2027 voter apathy is going to be worse in the South, cos power has to return to the North, cos based on calculations power should be returned to the North. It's either that's the sentiment going to be promoted when we get closer to 2026 or might probably be the deal Tinubu struck with them for their support, hence the recent Northern Elite alignments.

raumdeuter:
When matter gets touch, Yoruba people dont discriminate, na 3 factor authentication, Alfa, Pastor and Babalawo. After you don fortify yourself legally

Egbon you didn't lie. We are all still blaming you sha, anything outside finance or career advice from you is a no no

OasisX:
"Our states must work together to deliver on the critical reforms required of us to meet the needs of our people. Time is humanity's most precious asset. You can never have enough of it. It is getting late.

"We are ready and able to support you in the form of the mechanization of your agricultural processes and the provision of high-quality seedlings.

"We are prepared to provide solar powered irrigation facilities to support our farmers across seasons, but we must now produce. We must produce the food our people eat, and it will require coordination and intentionality between members of the National Economic Council (NEC).

"There is nothing we are doing that is more important than producing high-quality food for our people to consume, buy, and sell. We create jobs in the production of it. And that is before we generate wealth by exporting the excess. It is not beyond us to achieve this for Nigerians.

"How much support do you need from me and in what form? I am prepared to provide it. But we must achieve the result. We must deliver on our targets at all levels. Please report back following your consultations and submit to my office within seven days."

- President Bola Ahmed Tinubu GCFR

Tinubu is falling hand, this is just rubbish rhetoric IMHO, Joe Blogg on the street knows insecurity is the problem. We are simply reaping the rewards of Buhari failure on insecurity, people are scared to go to farm, investors are scared to invest where they can't even step their foot, it is that simple. Jonathan thru Akinwunmi Adesina set our agriculture production on the right path before Buhari arrived to destroyed it, we don't need Tinubu to provide solar irrigation, we have the food basket of the nation overrun by bandits and herdmen, farmers need security, which is in his remit.

Theflint1:
This man know wetin e dey talk so? $69 billion, $20 billion... Nigeria get that kin money lying around for randoms to dey steal?

But when Sanusi accused Jonathan of $50 billion theft it was believable?

raumdeuter:
Several things

1. He has to complete the coastal road he started which will take several years

Chairman I know better from our back&forth during pre-election than to engage you on Tinubu, like engaging Amoto on Buhari, but Bro I thought the coastal road was a privately funded something, cos if it is got providing the money that's even worse IMHO cos plenty things are more demanding of the scarce funds than a coastal road.

Itsrm:
You don't know how much blow this revelation by the finance minister has dealt them.

I mean, that's the only thing his praise singers kept drumming in our ears. How Tinubu was bold enough to remove subsidy, something no other president has done.

That was why people like Heineken was ready to die on that hill that subsidy was not being paid. Werey said El rufai should bring evidence

So in essence, Tinubu's year1 there isn't any notable positive achievement, omoooh

izzou:
[color=royalblue]In our bid not to tackle corruption, we begin dey find regions and provinces.

If we like, make we divide am to 774 regions, In 2pac's voice, "I see no changes".

If corruption was almost zero in this country, we wouldn't even care about most of all these.[/color]

Abi ooo, This is just forming activity on Tinubu path, he is beholden to the North, they made him President, so will be foolish to expect him to rock that boat, seeing that regional govt is seen as a southern agenda.

If APC wanted it, their best chance was when mannequin Buhari was president - he haf the clout in the north to pull it off, but it is something considered as anti-north, so won't fly.

GloriousGbola:
the tourism in lagos is business tourism. businessmen /people coming in for meetings, MOUs, engagements. they are not there for leisure, will usually have mpol and convoy attached to them for the duration of their visit. they will be limited to four star hotels and offices of the partners

leisure tourism, where people come in on their own requires first and foremost SECURITY. how many states in nigeria are on diplomatic warning lists? we have been talking about subsidies on and off. by the fact that tinapa was built by the government, it was a subsidy. and it could unfortunately not stand on its own without government intervention. so any governor after duke, who was not personally invested in tinapa, would come in, look at the numbers and ask why are we doing this? [this assumes they are fiscally literate, because the truth is most governors are interested in their own legacies or monuments)

look at tourists destinations like dubai. they are literally folding themselves into pretzels to accommodate western tourists. are we ready to do this? they banned Nigerians because those robberies will impact on their reputation as a safe haven. meanwhile nigerians see kidnapping of foreigners as a victimless crime. you may have communities conspiring to kidnap any unwitting tourists

and in the end, tourists want what is familiar, their own food, not the cardboard tasting nigerian equivalents that make people who know what teh food should taste like puke

Chief, Security is outside his purview naa. Also Calabar is much safer than Lagos, and Lagos is safer than JBourg South Africa, abi na Mexico that we have discussed on this pages as go to place, throw Jamaica & Argentina to the mix, so security is relative; with the correct packaging Oyinbo people will come.
Another set that is even richer are the young adults of African heritage raised in the diaspora, these cohort still have more money than sense.
The famed Calabar Girls & Calabar Cuisine already shits on Intercontinental kikikan food, especially now that African food is rightly having it moments.

As per numbers, every business has a gestational period, my argument is if subsequent govt had continued the investment we might have a contender as location for international events similar to what Ghana just started doing with the 'year of the return', even sef Calabar already has a headstart given the successes of the carnival.

Ibime:
Tourism is about attracting people with money which for us means International visitors. Making tourism the cornerstone of your economy was a dumb decision in a country without the ability to attract foreign visitors and where the local population in Nigeria lacks the disposable income, especially in the middle of insecurity that was going on at that time in Niger Delta and going on till today. In a state that lacks the supporting industries that make tourism thrive whether it's the food production or transport networks, that was always going to be a white elephant.

If you go to any mass tourism holiday destination today, you expect to have croissants, sausages, bacon etc on your table first thing in the morning, choice of various foreign foods in the afternoon and evening (Italian. Chinese, Paella, Seafood, Cheese, Wine, french pastries) etc with either local production able to meet these needs or imports flowing daily to meet these needs. You will find these in any holiday destination today. Your travel must be VISA free from the developed countries or be able to be bought in the plane quickly or on arrival with no questions asked. Return plane tickets must be £400 and below with direct flights, leaving enough headroom for travel agents to put together a package and pass on profit to the hotel. There are not even foreign flights to Cross River today. All these conditions above are met by holiday destination, even Gambia is meeting these conditions.

You must have supporting activities outside the resort such as water sports, water skiing, windsurfing, swimming with dolphins, helicopter rides etc also, not just lock tourists in a resort with armed soldiers making them feel uncomfortable

Below is Porters diamond (not 5 forces) which determines where countries put their investments. A simple example of the "related and supporting industries" section of Porters diamond is a country renowned in making wine will choose to invest in cheese-making since cheese and wine are often consumed together. "Demand conditions" means you have local demand that can provide a revenue base while you scale up. Calabar had none of these. Duke was a Capital fail.

On the other hand, Lagos knew that their strength lay in Business tourism and real Estate and they capitalised where they had competitive advantage. They saw insecurity in Niger Delta gave them an advantage and they guaranteed security in the Island. They have the port and the International airport, and they can even appeal to the foreign pallette. If you go to the major hotels on the Island today, you will have any European food for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Go to Calabar and they will surely be asking you to manage edikaikong.

Chief you get beef with Calabar people? Tourism works? And I don't subscribe that it was a dumb decision? If subsequent govts had not abandoned it, it would have thrived, case in point why is tourism thriving in Lagos Island but not in Badagry? All stems from govts pouring investment towards an area, so smart investor would pour money into the area as well.

There are decent hotels in Calabar that would cater to intercontinental cuisine and with time many more would have sprung up.

The insecurity and decimation of the Nigerian middle class also played major roles these are external factors outside his purview.

The calabar carnival was popping naa, and huge money maker that Lagos doesn't even has something similar, so it's more of a failed enterprise rather than a white elephant project, the market and potential is still there, hopefully Umahi useless costal road would have it connected

larride:
Well theres nothing the FG can do, they do not have control over the funds so I doubt to see where they will see the compulsion for PFAs and PFCs to do their bidding.

I agree with your last line, let's wait for more clarification.

Bro, mistake number 1, after God fear governments, nothing Nigerian govt can do ke? Let just hope they actually meant borrowing by way of TBills or asking PFAs and PFCs to invest in infrastructure bonds or something, cos if it direct deductions omo its scary ooo, you know being the largest employer and defo the largest contributor to the pension funds they can do their magomago if they want & all that will end it will be all talk, and before you know it people will come to muddy the water with their dissatisfaction with PFAs & PFCs.

larride:
You will be surprised at how people disregard LABSCA order and just continue building.

Come to Ikorodu and you will see plenty house that was marked by Labsca and the owners still went ahead with the building.

There's even one like 4 houses to where I live where labsca has put stop work like 3 times and the owner and contractor disregarded. Labsca even sealed the house with those their red tape and padlock, them comot the red tape and break the padlock and continue working. The house is 90% completed like this. I'll try and snap the 2 gates of the house tomorrow if possible for you to see how many times labsca has ordered them to stop work and all and yet they ignored it.

The idea that everyone that build house in Lagos has approval from the government is a funny idea Egbon. Alot of craze people dey this state and some get approval to build one thing and go ahead to build another thing.

The problem is still labsca, because they have failed to practice with Integrity and follow due process, most of these discriminate markings of house are mostly shakedowns, e.g people building residential whilst processing their building approval, and if you don't grease the right palms building approval can take 1year to process.

If labsca want to enforce they law they would do it, if they are aware of single residential builds to mark, means they where absolutely aware of all these estates being constructed, and where just bidding their time to cause maximum misery.

Builders do crazy things many times because there is no consequence, are you telling me for example that if at each time labsca came time mark those buildings they arrested the builders that Oga owner won't get the memo? We know the cause of these stuffs, and it's mainly inability of government agency to do their work properly.

GloriousGbola:
i disagree on this

all of these things are about following process and having a checklist
the challenge may be finding a competent practitioner with integrity, but they exist

sometimes also, the clients are the problem. there are people who think money and connection solve everything. i had that experience during a renovation where they wanted to go ahead renovating a station without approval because the owner/dealer of the station was an APC chieftain. lasbca slapped contravention notice on site. they called the dealer , asked him to use connection and the guy responded no think am. fashola does not play with building contravention. that is how we stopped the project



if you want to follow process, you will follow process. it just takes more time. if any of my car papers is expired i will not take the car out until i have sorted them. i do not want to be at the mercy of any useless govt official. but i see people driving cars without number plate, with right hand drive, with police lights, with blacked out windows. some will see small hold up and immediately scatter the ordered traffic by driving one way. if they get stopped they will say they are being oppressed or bullied. the people building on canal remind me of assholes i encounter everyday who park their cars in the middle of the road to talk to a friend with no concern or respect for the other commuters

what i can say is that buying a house is for most people a one time affair so they dont get to apply the experience and lessons learned. which is why i say get a lawyer who actually does real estate

as an example, i am working with a dude who just bought a petrol station. i am advising him on all the issues he needs to sort out. i have given him a checklist. i actually told him, if you decide to buy a station again, A, B C are the first things you must check for before you even want to start negotiating price. the station in question has no approvals to construct. so we are going to have to work with the proposed amnesty.

You are actually agreeing with me, if Integrity exist in the system we won't have this problem. The onus should be on lagos state govt to ensure the people have integrity and enforce due process, your Fashola example shows it can be done.

House purchase like you mentioned for most is an inexperience purchase, with most of people concerns revolving around location, leisure facilities or just the joy of owning a house, and emotional stuff like picking the paint colors

People where pushed into buying in estate properties instead of cheaper omo onile properties with the belief that the estate had done due diligence, if near total adherence is enforced right from the get go like the gas station example, rather bribes are collected to allow construction and then few years down the line same govt agency is demolishing buildings.

GloriousGbola:
People need to start engaging consultants. These developers and their promoters are shysters. I have one on our school WhatsApp group. Always promoting these multimillion naira properties. I now look at them like car dealers who will sell you a 'clean car' with dodgy custom papers.

The only people that can solve this problem is the government, it's Alausa, anything else is just a waste of time, until the govt starts jailing civil servants and heads of agency responsible for approval and monitoring, nothing changes.

There is no way these houses are built without the knowledge of the authorities in Lagos, so whoever was the commissioner, department heads in the last 20yrs have questions to answer. Most of these properties are sold on to non suspecting abroadians.

This is going to kill off private investment in real estate in Lagos state, there is acute shortage of descent accommodation in Lagos state, like how do you build a whole estate on a drainage and it is allowed? Not possible unless you have sorted someone somewhere.

You engaging a lawyer who most likely doesn't have indemnity insurance and total networth is just a couple of millions doesn't give much succour when things go south neither does the prospect of going through the court systems which could take years.

TrebleChamp:
If Tinubu Govt make any attempt to impose tax on any religious Organisation, a major group will scream Islamization agenda while the other major group will accuse him of being a fake Muslim. But Tinubu have ballz according to Dayo, let him use that ballz to impose tax on this pastorpreneur or Alfas making mad money off their members...

Why would he self sabotage? Also Churches and Mosque have charity status, so they are not taxed. So if I donate funds to the Mosque or give Alfa money for prayers that money should be taxed? Soon una go sey make Tinubu tax funds given to side chicks or relatives.

People give their money on the own freewill, if they are smart enough to work and earn the money they are definitely smart enough to donate where they deem fit, Smart advice would be to tax their luxury consumptions such as PJs.

OasisX:


...................smart dude. LOL!

This is what EFCC under Tinubu has been turned to? What a shame? All the stealing that happened in Buhari 8yrs have they finished investigating or prosecuting? The Smuggler guy nko? At least if Tinubu is unwilling to prosecute fellow thieving politicians, there are other crimes against the Nation not some minor misdemeanor of spraying cash..

Am guessing it's just noise to distract the masses from it's incompetence.

User09:
Again I have said it or referenced it in my post. If you wanna be headstrong and keep saying the same thing despite no evidence, then by all means continue.

I will say it again, There is no evidence of any intervention in the market by CBN and I still dont know why you keep looking at the drop in reserves despite no known association so far.

You keep looking at news articles without a fundamental understanding of the market. I'll help you just this one time cos i'm getting bored with you regurgitating the same tosh. 2 reasons why the reserves are going down.

1. Debt Repayments - Most of them fell due in the referenced period

2. (Forward) Contracts which are also falling due and being repaid .

You see how easy it is to conduct research and not just take the lazy approach by looking at the reserves data and tying it to the drop in exchange rate.

I am enjoying this exchange, please don't be discouraged.

As someone whose understanding of economics is low, what I am getting from your stance is that @LordAdam16 usage of the term pegging is inaccurate as what is happening is market signalling which is norm for central bankers e.g Feds, BoE does when it comes to interest rates.

Now where I am lost is the suggestion that FDI or Foreign Remittance is the key reason for Naira gaining, do you have any chart or figures of last 3months to support this?

I ask this cos @LordAdam16 opinion of CBN defending the Naira seems very plausible, whilst it might not be responsible for the full amount of decline in our foreign reserve, as all it has to do in signal the rate it is able to sell USD, such signal creates sentiment of intention and you really have to have big pockets to bet against these sentiment.

Overall - would seem you guys agree that this is not sustainable? Have you considered the effect of the refineries coming on stream reducing our FX demands? Escalations in the middle east leading to increase in oil prices our biggest FX earner?

BlueRayDick:
Reno Omokiri's borther who is a pastor accused of rapin.g a 15 year old girl .

It is being alleged that Reno is trying to use his connection to frustrate the girl and her family from getting justice

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C5vn4pFsRzx/?igsh=MTU1dmZ5Z2dyOHpycw==

Oga oo, well sha people are different, cos not everything should make it to social media, the father could have jejely done his research and if true put the foolish pastor mercifully in a wheelchair for the rest of his life, to unalive would be doing him and his family a favour.

BlueRayDick:


When did sparying money become Yoruba culture? Was it before the British introduced paper money ni or after ?

I don't think spraying money is Yoruba culture; rather it is a craze most Nigerians just decided to adopt as recent as the the 80's and 90's. I mean what I know is that musicians in the past usually get appreciated either with food, drinks, clothes and or money if their audience really enjoy their performance. I think that's why they call them "alagbe"

Anyways, if most people don't know spraying naira notes is a crime before now; I'm sure they now. Bobrisky too would've gotten the option of fine like the C-List actress that was sentenced recently for same offence; But I believe personally get score to settle with Oga Idris. (Maybe the judge is one of those parents who believes somebody needs to put Bobrisky away for some time)

https://punchng.com/actress-omoseyin-bags-six-months-jail-for-stepping-on-naira-notes/

Bro, does it matter when it started? Just like our culture attires emerged not too long ago, what is Owambe without spraying money? Isn't Culture how we do things around here? If we can define culture as a social behaviour of a particular people or society.

Will soon apply to law school, these are the sort of cases and charges I want to be instituting 😂😂😂

What is wrong in spraying money?

BlueRayDick:
When government wants to deal with person, they can get at u under any guise. He had it coming with so much nonsense he vomits online anytime he gets into constant fight with other clout chasers online.

I don't think we can call his case that of victimization. If he was wise he would've learn from that actress lady that was sentenced for same offence earlier this year. Na everybody dey spray money for naija, but if ur cup full government go use ur back knack ground.

The sentence without option of fine seem too much, but that's at the Judge's discretion. I'm sure the judge like most people who don't endorse the nonsense Bobrisky represents just wants him out of circulation for the time being.

Chief, he is being victimised, haba something everyone does. We Yoruba's sef suppose protest against such laws cos it is discriminatory to our culture of spraying money 😂😂😂 moreover people hardly spray dirty notes.

Case got to court judgement within 1month of offense such level of efficiency is un-nigerian.

Regarding his content, well it earns him income, also the online distractions are probably why some people are still sane in Naija, and contributes to the docility of its citizenry which helps the elite.

raumdeuter:
I don't know enough details about this deal

Chairman, please help us beg Tinubu not to allow that goat Umahi destroy a tourism magnet, the lagos sea front must be protected, other countries dey use oceanfront drive tourism, blockhead want to build highway? You wonder if these people haven't left the shores of Nigeria, they can chop the money in peace, after all Air Nigeria happened and no one died, no need to destroy the landscape.

BlueRayDick:
Dem don finally get Bobrisky.

6 months for sanko with no option of fine. The judge must be one of those people tired of seeing any bobrisky content online

https://www.nairaland.com/8059413/bobrisky-jailed-six-months-no

Nigerian Govt and victimisation, 6months without option of fine? Hope he gets a good lawyer to appeal this nonsense.
I don't agree or like his nonsense but he shouldn't be victimised.
Haba ontop everything that's going wrong in this country, he is the one EFCC want to use and flex muscle?

larride:
Airpeace need to strategize on a medium and long term plans on how they want to survive this rough terrain.

I just the Lagos to London route this afternoon and the Airpeace price is still the cheapest direct flight so I'm not sure where Onyema is seeing his own fares from.

I think he is probably referring to the Kenya, Ethiopia, Egypt or Air Maroc who where always cheaper than BA/Virgin cutting further would eat into the share he was hoping to capture.

So, if Lagos London with stop over is $300 cheaper, that's a game changer for the lower end travelling customer cos family of 4, that's $1200 that could be saved.

I don't see a scenario where Virgin/BA price is cheaper than AirPeace, they probably up the effizy of their product e.g Aircraft Type, Food Offerings.