₦airaland Forum

manny4life: I will read it later.

Are you talking about money spent since Obj or since military rule or since GEJ, when? It's important to understand where you're comparing from..

Who cares? Do you know understand that government is a continuity and that 4 years will come and go GEJ will be history but the child born today will not be guaranteed a better tomorrow in Nigeria with the current level of governance the country is witnessing!

When Edo State citizens were playing ethnic politics, the never saw anything wrong in the mediocre of a project Igbinedion was building all over the state until they saw what Oshiomhole did with schools and roads then they began to realise and vowed never again will the likes of Lucky Igbinedion rule that state again. Same will happen in Nigeria. Nigerians have been made to live under the bandage of under development for years and are now so used to it and they barely can expect excellence in development as a way of living.

jmaine: You need to tone down your recent erratic and unnecessary criticisms . . .Your becoming too predictable . . .

Because you accept mediocrity as your highest standard of living does not mean everybody has to. I do not celebrate mediocrity and I am not the type to be celebrating under achievement when I know the country can do ten times better. In less than 20 years, brazil transformed their energy sector with less noise. Today is megawatt..tomorrow is gigawatt... Just give Nigerians stable light that's all! Here in england, if not for curiosity, I barely would have known where the electricity is being generated and as I type, I do not know where the local sub station or transformer is in my area but I enjoy 24/7 electricity and that's all Nigerians care about not these story story!

manny4life: Generator is a product and for power to reach 160million people plus businesses and Corporations, serious tens of billion of $$$ is needed. So generators will always be an alternative but it doesn't mean improvements should be looked down as mediocrity because one way or another people will benefit from it.

How much did Brazil spend under Silva to revive their power sector? Help yourself with this article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Brazil

manny4life: Bros, I know you're quite good in criticism, no doubt but is it not humans that designed robots? What are the jobs of robots? Automating a process, not necessarily that humans can't perform it, does it mean when humans perform it, it's an odd job? Most of the clean metal wields are done by hands, don't judge by two pictures and assume the system isn't automated. After all, it's robotic arms that pics the molds, move it from different assembly points till its final destination.

QC is good and in no doubt questioning it, but not until recently did our advanced motor manufacturers take QC seriously. What I'm trying to say is regardless of the shortcomings of Innoson, if he's focused like Tata started, in five years, QC won't be a problem.

Did you say revenues? Revenues from where exactly? If we had extras we don't be a $6billion deficit for this year, would we? I think this is a decent project - the power plants, rail resuscitation, electrical substations, improving on gas extraction, I think these are important because they're the most basic. When other governments come around, they improve from where the last one left off and the good governance continues.

With due respect.. TRASH. Go back and do some reading on precision engineering and manufacturing. You see, that is the problem most of you have, MEDIOCRITY. What is decent in power plants being shown with already rust material works? Or gas plants that is claimed to be under construction looking like an abandoned site As for revenues, just go to the CBN website and see how much Nigeria have made and ask yourself, is this the sort of project trillions of Naira raised can do for Nigeria and Nigerians? Can't you. Folks see projects shown in place like Dubai, Qatar, Iran, etc who are big oil and gas players like Nigeria? Can you compare the government sponsored projects in these countries to the ones being displayed on this thread that are FG owned? A really feel sorry for some of you.

When a people celebrate mediocrity, they become slave in their own land! Yawns.. Abeg has the prices of generators fallen yet Or is candle now. Given out for free in Nigeria

Seriously, it is alarming the serious damage poverty has done to many Nigerians. With all seriousness, is that INNOSON motors assembly plant Hammer and Chisel? I thought Nigeria universities offer courses in Mechatronics? Why aren't we seeing 6-axis robot arms doing the assembly? See the way the metals are even being handled, how can such an assembly pass quality? Think of the possibility of those panels being damaged, then you end up with a defect with the possibility of fatigue crack initiation in service!

At the pics, it is a very sorrowful state Nigeria has been reduced to! Some people are even singing high heaven. Do you guys even care to ask yourself how much money has been budgeted and the revenues the government has raised in the last four years alone and if this is the kind of projects the FG should be displaying a good governance

manny4life: Unfortunately, you cannot assume that position because they said "increased oil sales" doesn't mean volume has increased. That was NEVER specified. Oil was flat out low, picked back up from where it left off at.

Re-read that with the NBS press release last week. You will see a clear comparison between both. Beside, I posted the Naira gains and loss trend against the Dollar above. That trend will tell you what investor think of that news.

I have board meeting early this morning, hopefully have the time to continue this later in the evening. Have a good moring.

manny4life: Increased oil exports could mean anything, it doesn't mean that oil exports increased x2, and declining imports which is what I've been saying. You're arguing that imports have been greater, besides, do you honestly believe it's only oil that was exported? Lol, you do the logic yourself, then tell me.

Seriously lets not argue for the sake of it. I have tried to explain to you what these increases mean and those that trade or 'Speculate' in this FOREX have corroborated my submission. I think it is best you spend sometime to just read up on some of the financial analyst break down of what the increase in the reserves mean and where the increase is coming from. Ask yourself, how much has the Naira gained against the Dollars and Euros since the news of the foreign reserve increase broke last Thursday?

manny4life: You know what man, we're not getting anywhere with this arguments. Volatile or not, accounting and finance applies the same theories. If a trader goes to the bank and purchase $10,000 to buy FOREX, by the time the bank settles the FOREX and what not, takes time. However, the actual booking and confirmation of the $10,000 has been recorded and accounted for, in fact in larger purchases, audited. This has absolutely no bearing on volatile or not.

Since we're not getting nowhere, I sincerely give up.

Hopefully, you can see clearly that the boast is really from other factors relative to Oil sales.

[quote author=manny4life][/quote]See my post above

manny4life: Look bro, I don't work for them but huge transactions take time to settle, some take 30days or more because of the internal controls set in place. It doesn't mean if Nigeria sold 1million barrels today, on the GL, it will carry today's date, but when it actually reconciles, hits the account et al, is another ball game altogether. That's why you have financial statement to checkmate all these..

Anyway, this is no finance/accounting class..

See what I have been explaining;
LAGOS (Reuters) - Nigeria's foreign exchange reserves rose by 3.8 percent month-on-month to $45.85 billion by January 29, latest figures from the central bank showed on Thursday.

The Nigeria's forex reserves were $44.17 billion a month earlier. The figure was a third up on the same period of last year, when $34.57 billion were recorded.

The central bank said last week that strong foreign reserves had been driven mainly by proceeds from crude oil and gas exports. Nigeria Africa's top energy producer.

Data from National Bureau of Statistic (NBS) showed on Wednesday that Nigeria's trade surplus grew 8.7 percent to 4.6 billion naira between the second and third quarters of last year, owing to increased in oil exports and declining imports.

The inclusion of Nigeria's bonds in the JP Morgan emerging market index last year attracted flurry of offshore investors into local debt, boosting dollar flows and contributing to the growth in the reserves, traders say.

Current foreign reserves could finance about 9 months of imports, the central bank said last week.

manny4life: Let's not get into Accural Accounting because Nigeria uses the General Accounting methods - revenues/expenses are earned/incurred during the transaction. When it's paid or reconciled is not necessary. In Accounting method, you may purchase a goods in Jan and reconcile in March, but that transaction WILL be recorded for Jan...PERIOD

Let's just keep this PRACTICAL.

Let's focus on my practical explanation, let's not get ahead of ourselves...

I did not make that up. NBS clearly said it in their press release when the gave out figures last week on the reasons inflation fell and while the economy contracted in 2012. Like I said in my previous post, calculate the volume of oil produced within the same period, and work out the profit, hopefully the numbers will tell you that $2.2bn profit is not realistic in two months.

manny4life: In addition to my question, if your answer is that it will decrease it, hypothetically speaking, if you wanted to increase the FOREX balance to say $101, what sorta of activity will push it from $100 to $101?

In all honesty, the business of FROEX is more complicated than the scenarios you gave. Especially if you have a very volatile economy like Nigeria. Like I explained, one of the huge draw down on our reserves is the Dollar auctioning by CBN for finance importation. If you delay or reduce importation in one quarter, no doubt you will make substantial savings from the dollar sales which will form part of your reserves. If not, take the period in question into account, calculate the total crude oil volume we exported by the avarage prices, work out the profit from the sales and see if $2.2bn savings can be made in those two months.

manny4life: Q1 from where?

The FG just said over the last two months, including Dec/Jan, we saved $2.2billion and you're here saying Q1? Does your own quarter start out in November/December?

Let's do this math really quick.

FOREX stood at $100 and you reduced imports from 10 to 1 that's valued at $20, will the reduction in import, increase the FOREX or decrease the FOREX based upon my scenario?


Bros, why I can't even argue with you because you're all over the place.

I will argue with scenarios with you now

What you fail to consider is that the imports for Q1 are not paid for in Q1. CBN would have had to sell Dollar for Q1 2013 imports in Q3 and Q4 of 2012. By slowing that down, you make savings im the earlier part which you will spend later in the year but it will give you greater flexibility to stabilize.

manny4life: Lol, who doesn't know that

Read below... Perhaps, scenarios will suffice. No more theories, time for real time application.

FOREX stood at $100 and you reduced imports from 10 to 1 that's valued at $20, will the reduction in import, increase the FOREX or decrease the FOREX based upon my scenario?

Just digest this link http://www.cenbank.org/Out/2013/CCD/Communique%20No%2087%20of%20the%20MPC%20of%2021st%20January%202013%20(with%20personal%20statement%20of%20members).pdf

manny4life: Ask yourself or any economics, if exports aren't greater than imports, how does the extra reserve come about? Even if you slowed imports, reserve will remain at "X point or probably still decrease or continuously decrease because of large import but out net reserve after all import bills paid, and we have $2.2billion and you say it's because FG slowed imports...

Well fee free to ask, better yet, I'm sure CBN has data for you.

I have just explained to you where part of the $2.2bn is coming from. Do you not know that the Dollars sold by CBN to Importers to import goods are from the Foreign reserves?

manny4life: On the contrary, the Naira isn't weak, it has gained suffiency because

A. Exports are greater than imports now, though we have increase agriculture production

B. According to the newly released report from the CBN, inflation drop to single digit. How does it affect prices of Garri, you won't see it but for someone importing, every Naira on the dollar for say $10,000 is money for him which in turn affects our exchange.

C. Well they told you that it was 11months, for us to earn $2billion in 2months even shocked the analyst at the WNG/IMF and the other firm. We are getting there, by fire or force.

Exports are not greater than Imports, what the FG has tried to do is slow down imports in Q1, which will be compensated by a massive rise in imports in Q3 and Q4 which is the period when Nigerian demand for those imported products are usually high. Go read the NBS last press release you will find it there!

Single digit inflation makes no difference in the case of Nigeria because the corresponding fall in prices and increase in pay, hence available spending power will not materialize. Hence if you go to the market two months from today, the prices of commodities will still be high. Whereas in stable economies, a fall in inflation will see a boast in take home pay of income earners as prices of certain commodities will be affected which will leave the citizens with greater spending power.

As for the $2bn earns in 7 weeks, it leaves more questions from lenders than you might imagine. If the oil price have remain stable yet all through 2012 we could not save $2bn every two months, how come we manage to do it within Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, Ah! here is your answer: REDUCTION IN IMPORTATION which meant that the financing of the Naira to Dollar sales have reduced for the time being. This will probably turn its sides by Q3 and Q4 of 2013 if the local component of FG income does not appreciate greatly.

manny4life: On the contrary, the Naira isn't weak, it has gained suffiency because

A. Exports are greater than imports now, though we have increase agriculture production

B. According to the newly released report from the CBN, inflation drop to single digit. How does it affect prices of Garri, you won't see it but for someone importing, every Naira on the dollar for say $10,000 is money for him which in turn affects our exchange.

C. Well they told you that it was 11months, for us to earn $2billion in 2months even shocked the analyst at the WNG/IMF and the other firm. We are getting there, by fire or force.

Exports are not greater than Imports, what the FG has tried to do is slow down imports in Q1, which will be compensated by a massive rise in imports in

CFCfan: Exactly. The Obama administration is also heavily urging auto manufacturers in the US to mass produce hybrid/electric cars. I predict that in about 4/5 years time, hybrids will be a common sight on American roads, which means that American consumption of petrol (imported) will drop significantly.

If you think cars are the biggest consumers of crude and gas, then think again! Do you know how many countries use crude to generate electricity? Have you been to some of the huge manufacturing complexes in Europe to see how they run gas and crude oil derivative in the production process? Look so long as there is Machine, crude oil will sell. What America is hoping to do is reduce her energy dependence on seemingly hostile nations.

If Nigeria has purposeful leadership, there are over 50 countries around the world we can sell our crude to and US will be the least we will bother with. Russia today barely sells her crude to the US, same with Iran yet those two nations produce more crude and Gas than Nigeria. That should tell you something that our leaders are missing out in the whole picture.

CFCfan: If we have ABSOLUTELY NO control over our foreign reserves, then the CBN/Presidency should save us all the stress in making such announcements.

So you are not aware that we have barely little control over our foreign reserves? Are you really kidding me? I do not want to derail this thread, but I will leave that for another day.

manny4life: Read again,

I stated from where it was about 3years ago or more which means back in 2009/10 figures..

Lol, you think it has increased, you're very funny. U.S. is the LARGEST buyer of Nigerian oil, don't get it twisted, if it was the most sought after, why was the APC abi is it ACN secretary calling for alarm.

If Nigeria wasn't struggling to sell her crude, why did the the benchmark drop from $72 to $62 for next years budget?

Why does Nigeria have to export all the way to Asia to sell her crude? Brother keep up to date with current events because you seem to think Nigerian Crude will continuously sell.

ACN raised the alarm not because of oil per say, but mainly because the elements of growth and sustainability was taking a nose dive. The senate has previously raised alarm that various states are getting to the threshold of instability in the finance and if the government at the centre do nothing, then the economy will begin to fall very rapidly.

You do not need anyone to tell the economy is very fragile when the currency can fluctuate and loose so much within a day.

I am amazed you asked the question why Nigeria has to export her crude to Asia! And you ask me to keep up to date? Have you looked at the last global economic data released? Which region accounted for the biggest spenders? Which region accounted for the biggest growth in economic block? So you really expect Nigeria to place all her eggs in one basket?

Asia is the new economic block where economic growth and working class population is hugely on their side and every serious trading nation is making serious effort to buy into that economic block. Do you know how many times in the last 4 years the major Western leaders have visited those Asia countries? Do you know how many times the British PM, His emissaries and Business barons have visited that region? Dude wake up to reality.

On the Agriculture, I can't quite find the data, but I will post here once I do. You will see the trend when the Agricultural sector began to pick up and how much it has grown by in the last 7years so you will understand where I am coming from.

manny4life: This is not what it can do for the average man on the street but how does it reflecct macro-economically on small and mid-size business. According to the report, with its current standing, NBS and CBN claims it can pay import bills for the next 11months, this is assuming no extra was added. What that means is that (just like I argued on the SA thread), Nigeria is now exporting more than it imports. It may be hard to believe, but it's the truth.

Obasanjo piled it up like you put it but you forget that the odds against OBJ was really low than GEJ now. Please pull up the annual averages from 1999 to 2007, you will see that OBJ had it good, oil prices were high sometimes between 2003 or so. Yes there was so much demand for our oil then, now fast forward to 2011, 12 and now 13, Nigeria is BARELY struggling to sell it's oil now due to U.S. it's major buyer has reduced purchase because they have better discoveries.

Thanks to the Obama Administration, U.S. may NEVER need to buy oil or gas. Due to poor R/D, our discoveries are low, oil companies are selling their stake and leaving, SHELL BP did. Its even rumored that oil export is very low, now u see why Madam NOI had the urgency to diversify revenues immediately and I must commend her, she's doing a wonderful job.

Firstly, let me dispel your bogus claim that Agriculture contributed 34% to GDP in 2012. That figure is not for entire 2012 but for Q1 of 2012. Go to think link and see details for yourself.. http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/pages/download/72

Secondly, Nigeria crude, is one of the most sort after and if anything, the volume of Gas being sold by Nigeria today has increased hundred fold compared to Obasanjo's tenure. Moreover, internally generate revenue during Obasanjo's era and now is completely different.

Stop buying in those false information that Nigeria is struggling to sell her crude. Nigeria would have secured long term contracts on crude sales and if anything, being an OPEC member, you are almost sure your allocated production quantity will be sold.

The question is posed was a simply one: How will this affect the common man on the street? We know imports will not stabilize as manufacturing is comatose. The naira is very weak due to the fragility in the economy. Even Sanusi will tell you, the reserve is not good enough as 9 months of import for a population of over 160 million is a disaster in any economic planning. The minimum we should be talknig about is 18 months of imports.

Am I here to condemn NOI? Certainly not, all I am asking for is the average Nigeria should feel the effects of these savings. At least if as a result of these saving some of the imported items see price reduction, then you will appreciate. I would rather have $15bn of that reserve used for massive infrastructure development all over the country, with stable electricity provided and water made available to Nigerians than keep dancing alingo to some money in foreign account that we really do not have control over.

manny4life: Just in time, when I was arguing with the numbnut called eko-ile who kept insisting the Nigeria is disappearing into thin air, I made it clear to him that GEJ may have his problems, but the dude has improved real sectors. Agriculture from last three years gained about 35% increase of our GDP - from 32% to about 44%, that's exports right there.

The bunkum are so sold on their ACN propaganda, Madam NOI reduced our dependence on oil revenue funding our budget from 905 where it was about 3years ago to now where it represent about 72%, that's like a 20% decrease and she's still sourcing revenues from other sources other than oil so we're not dependent on it.

Abeg, if GEJ continues his transformation in Agriculture, plus electricity, we won't have to export raw agricultural produce anymore we can process them and export finished goods, that will double FOREX. Manufacturing has a 1.8% + average change in 2012, it means GEJ is getting it right in some aspects. Imagine if we're to add 2% manufacturing each year, in 7years vision 2020, Nigeria's GDP will boast of about 20% manufacturing. NOT AN EASY TASK. All of these, when exported, provides FOREX... hehe

With all due respect, if your state in bold is true, then 2013 budget would not have been benchmark with oil prices. Can I ask you were those manufacturing figures you are quoting are from? Seriously, do you really mean manufacturing has increase 1.8% - do you know what means in reality? But I would await your substantiation before I comment further.

CFCfan: The Foreign Reserve can also serve as Nigeria's "rainy-day" funds. That is if every govt in Nigeria is dead broke.

Isn't that the point I am making? Rainy day fund for who? average Nigeria? I really do not think so. Just like the bizarrely depleted the previous savings with nothing on ground to show for it, they will do same with this savings.

The essence of a huge reserve for a growing economy like Nigeria is not for day to day funding of pets projects in the country, rather it is for you to provide the necessary backings to different cheap loan offers out there that the nation could afford and invest into massive infrastructural development. That way, institutions will be will to give you the loans, grants, etc because they know you have the where withal to repay the loan back.

If anything, I would prefer state are mandated to keep certain percentages of their yearly revenues as savings. This will ensure that each state will have savings to service their debts in the near future. Same goes with the FG.

The other question that begs for answer is, how come in barely 7 weeks, $2.7bn was saved in the foreign reserves? What has been happening to previous oil sales throughout 2012? Has there been any recent oil boom in the last 5 months? I really do not think so. Hence it is obvious some one has been playing chinese tales with the foreign earnings..

Another worthless thread by a free ranger

Seriously, what will $47bn reserve do for the average man on the street? Was it not the same reserve Obasanjo piled up and when the scavengers got into power they reduced it to nothing? Maybe someone needs to re-read NBS forecast again, i.e. if they are anything to go by and ask if $47bn is really a reserve or some of that is money we are holding on behalf of someone else.

If the nation was truly experience boom and stability and reserve was growing at a fast pace, then one would really cheer at news such as this. If the FG can not shore up the excess crude account to the level it was during obasanjo's tenure or even more than that, then there is fire on the mountain just ahead! Why? the huge debt of the FG needs to be financed at some point in the very near future and if excess crude is depleted, then the obvious savings that will be used will be the foreign reserve.

Sincere 9gerian: My friend, stop spewing rubbish. Everyone on this forum is important, including the first to commenters and haters. Different shades of opinion is the beauty of this forum. I'm sure if everyone on this forum were to be a Fashola propagandist, boredom would have driven even you away from NL

Look at who is talking! Even in the face of obvious truth, have you not made spurious claims on here that have left so many bewildered at the kind of human being you are for real? Many of us have been on here for a long while and have come across different shades of disgusting people like you whose only goal in life is to perpetuate falsehood onbehalf of those who 'oil' their pocket with shoe shiner fees..

Billyonaire: Am I no more richer than your entire family pedigree ? That's outside the point, that's if there is a locus standi in your mannerism, stop interacting with me cos you are simply not lettered enough for my debating prowess. Go and inform the MODs that they lack the acumen to run a forum in 21st century. I am out of here, you all can kiss my asss

Why would I bother to debate with a wannbe? If your claims are anything to believe, you would be now have taken up the challenge of either becoming a MOD or go open your own forum. Go read your past post and see if you are the type anyone will take serious. Your real life story is like a window's tale. Get your self a pillow and weep to bed. Silly rant

Billyonaire: You all will be punished for being stupid in the nearest future. Who is Seun ? He is a nobody to me, that's just the truth but I can assure all you biased persona non grata, that this site wont last long should you chose to remain biased. Stop censoring people and staying biased in your regional bigotism.

Be silent else go open your own forum and see how far it will go! I blame etisalat that allow people like you to have access to the internet. If for anything, have you made any meaningful contribution to Nairaland? In your early days were you not all over this forum boasting how rich you were and blah blah nonsense? You think your antecedent is not known on here?

Sincere 9gerian: You dont fight injustice by quitting. If cant do anything else about injustice, atleast I can speak up against it wherever I find myself.

Your brother Reno has His own naija pal.. go open your own and air your stupid views and propaganda on GEJ's newspaper achievements. Do you really think you are that important an individual whose discuss makes this forum a worthwhile place for other to come to?

With all seriousness, do you think a social miscreant like you would be allowed to spread falsehood on forum day and night and still have the guts to throw insults at MODs? You better go find another place to practice your stupidity and let Nairaland be. Arrant nonsense. Are you tired of all your baseless fashola propaganda? Is Okupe about to send you into oblivion?

Billyonaire: Sincere 9gerian, I never wanted to return to this forum again cos of the bias'ness' so to speak of the MODs, I think this site owners really need to think if they want it to remain online or it should be ddosed off in protest.

Are you a relevant poster that Seun should be having headache over someone like you leaving? What thread of serious discuss have you put up in your entire stay on NL? ...Arrant nonsense. Like the OP, your all bunch of sooers....

Sincere 9gerian: Watch the post by the "Eko oni ba je" crew and see the striking similarity. No iota of objectivity. No attempt to engage any of the issues raised.
Smh!

Who do you really think has time to engage a non-issue? Or is it your obvious stupidity and hatred without objectivity, for anything anti-GEJ and the blatant falsehood you perpetuate on NL that you expect the MODs to display on front page?

Day dreamer..