₦airaland Forum

I’m done derailing, carry on...

awesomeJ:
How can the "fight" get interesting when the weak one is always in a hurry to report posts?

I've had arguments with others here, but there's only one for whom i get blocked cos he reports posts he fears.

So you don’t see very well either. I was blocked three times here, look at my moniker and you’ll understand. Unlike you, I know it’s bots doing that when you reply to certain posts that contain specific words.

I don’t have time to block anybody. I could take you up in my sleep and smoke you like a cigarette.

Lol, most of you seem to have forgotten the original essence of this thread. The name of this thread is “Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts,” not “Show Your Quarterly.”

You can open a new one where you and the likes of awesomeJ can display your fictitious returns. Here, we discuss stocks, identifying those with a high probability of gains or those likely to fall. Everything else is just jara.

Phlinx:
That's not enough everyone should show their quarterly - simple

I don’t understand, what exactly are you trying to show?

mikeapollo:
Prof, please calm down. If you don't mind, can I open the fridge and bring some couple of cold bottles?.....you know what I mean now?

In fact, I’m going out to have a Hero . I really hope Seun implements a post-ranking system like they have on Reddit, so we can see whose posts end up at the bottom.

Some twerp talking trash, what exactly is your purpose here? How many stocks have you actually called out? The only thing I ever read from you is how you supposedly trade 5% of all the NGX. I’ve never seen you contribute anything in the original spirit of this thread. At least I’ve made a few calls here that made money for me and others. Can you show even one of yours? I can say categorically that I bring more value to this thread than you do, you’re just an empty talking head.

awesomeJ:
You're very confused.
.

KarlTom:
It's about to go down...

awesomeJ:
You're very confused.

I’m sorry if you can’t understand simple English; I honestly wonder how you manage your trading. We’ll revisit this matter next year when people start applying it here. According to you, we should all sell, that’s a very foolish idea, if you ask me.

If everyone sells, the market tanks, and then you’ll be the same person blaming others. We all sell to rebase, so who exactly will buy? Or do I sell to you, and you buy from me? Lol. I think you need to take some comprehension classes.

aj8:
I am invested in Ella Lakes. I have confidence in the company. I believe in the vision and believe that the management has all it takes to deliver on the vision. How I wish more Nigerians would think more like them and Dangote; Invest to solve a need. And the need here is clear. The stock market was created for companies like this… creating a platform to raise capital and reward hard work. The last few years have been challenging for even the Blue Chips. “Green chip” Ella is weathering all the storms and will excel. That FPF is already available is heartwarming…and just that the mill is not ready yet but is still ‘work in progress’. Once the mill is running, the price will shoot to 10. That will happen soon. The team cannot fail. They have brilliant minds. And, Chuka is one of Nigeria’s best minds. The land bank is massive…from the audit report… and should provide some comfort for long-term investors. This stock is not for trading. Sink in only funds you won't need for the next few years. Those in Ella Lake, stick in there. Time will reward. Everyone has to be passionate about something.

Your point is clear—there’s really no debate here. If you believe Ellah Lake isn't worth it, by all means, leave and don’t look back. But if you see the potential, as we did, then now is the time to accumulate. I don’t understand the attacks and the arguments. Too many people are reacting emotionally, driven by the need to be right. Nobody send them.

Spam bot banning me for posting these,

Does it look like spam to you?

emmanuelewumi:
Never on a consistent basis, if not you would have turned N1 million to N60 Million in 10 years or less

Ok, I am taking it down. waste of space abi?

seyisanya:
Great effort, sir. Well-done! However, anyone that is able to do this consistently must be using correct kayamata . In fact, most investors that bought say Zenith at N10.70 in March 2020 only used the opportunity to average down. It's rare to see investors that bought their entire holdings of a particular stock at exactly the year low. Almost impossible!

You are correct but the latent point i was making is that if you have a moderately good selection process you can take 50 to 60% or more out of available 100 plus annually.

ositadiima1:
I noticed a 4 year cycle in the movement of some stocks, especially the large caps and some banking stocks. It appears that these stocks peak between 2 to 2.5 years from the start, and from there it is a downward movement till next cycle. Interestingly, it coincides with the elections.

Thus, if this conjecture holds any water, the current bull (don't get me wrong here, up and downs yes but overall trend will be up) will last till 2022 to mid 2023, from there back to bottom.

Note that I teased this from 10 years of data and may not be representative.

Zenith as a case study:

Lets start with d definition of some terms.
1. Seasonality: It is a periodical fluctuation where the same pattern occurs at a regular interval of time.

2. Box and Wisker plot: A boxplot is a way to show a five number summary in a chart. The main part of the chart (the “box”) shows where the middle portion of the data is: the interquartile range. At the ends of the box, you find the first quartile (the 25% mark) and the third quartile (the 75% mark). The far left of the chart (at the end of the left “whisker”) is the minimum (the smallest number in the set) and the far right is the maximum (the largest number in the set). Finally, the median is represented by a vertical green line in the center of the box. The dots are outliers.

3. Autocorrelation plot: A little hard to explain(if u insist do a google search) but it is another way of detecting seasonality.


The first plot is quite self explanatory, u can easily spot the 4 year cycle. Sorry, not displayed in the chart, y-axes is in closing prices and x-axis is in years.

In the second plot u can see as well the periodicity of the data points (I have about 2000 data points from 2012 to 2021). If you are familiar with sinusoidal waves u wont have problem agreeing with me that it appears to have a period spanning over 1000 data points(roughly 4 year cycle).

Other Large caps have similar distribution.

Once again I admit that the data is too small to come to real conclusions but it was fun.

I noticed a 4 year cycle in the movement of some stocks, especially the large caps and some banking stocks. It appears that these stocks peak between 2 to 2.5 years from the start, and from there it is a downward movement till next cycle. Interestingly, it coincides with the elections.

Thus, if this conjecture holds any water, the current bull (don't get me wrong here, up and downs yes but overall trend will be up) will last till 2022 to mid 2023, from there back to bottom.

Note that I teased this from 10 years of data and may not be representative.

yMcy56:
Not enough info.
Maybe you contact your broker on this,
Or
Send mail directly to CSCS for detailed explanation.

**Whosoever knows should help out here**

Pls what is the typical range in market values for small, mid and large cap stocks?

9free:

Seriously waiting for ositadiima1 to mention NSE version of $GME and $AMC

pluto09:
Our market is very shallow, you need a very deep market for some of these things to work well.

I agree with you on that one, there is a limit to howmuch u can buy on most stocks. If u have a 200 million or more it will be very hard to trade systematic strategies, u will be forced to do buy and hold.

Zagee:
Systematic trading is all good, but in a third world economy where the variables to the previous close positions can sometimes leave you wondering. I think it's a really really wild venture bro. Unlike the developed economy where such variables can be controlled.

Hmmm, why do you think there is no control?

I don't understand why some folks here believe NSE is manipulated either. As far as I know the NSE is authentic and genuine.

If someone has enough money to bid for 100M share in order to move the market and later withdraws his bids, that in itself is not manipulation but strategy.

I have been looking at past data for a while and how they change over time .I haven't seen any anomalies.

I am sorry if I bug u guys with my perceived crap, I am talking to u, the diehard fundamentalists and serial dividend collectors.

I haven't seen any references in our local media towards systematic trading techniques. So, I post mine. I know some big and small firms use these techniques on our NSE, codedly. I am sure they are cashing out big time.

If systematic algorithms make big bucks on the New York Stock Exchange, which is saturated as at now with these trading robots, how much more our NSE. Food for thought "Bro".

kintus:
Na everywhere you dey?

Take am easy biko.

It depends on howmuch he is investing in each stock. Ok, I am not saying he isn't investing serious money though.

For example, I have been testing a mean reversion strategy which is a beat more involved than the quater strategy I experimented on before.

I enter with 200k only(hypothetically as it is a backtest with previous close prices), and can hold as many as 40 different stocks at any one time.

From start date (2012 cos that is as far as my data goes) to subsequent days on my time series of prices I buy when the stock goes beyond one standard deviation below mean.

To make things a little clear, if I was to compute todays requirements. I would collect all the closing prices from march 2012, my start date, up to yesterday. Find the mean and standard deviation. If todays closing price is less than *** mean - standard deviation *** I buy.

I think this works because past prices hold information about a stock - where a stock has been in d past affects its future pricing.

By now u would be thinking, but how do I get out.

I get out in 2 ways, when I am more than 70% up from buy price or 70% down. Believe me, stocks hardly drop below 70% (Only Oando has done that to me twice since 2012 till date). Consequences are that I am loaded on many stocks wating to exit in any of this two ways. And ofcourse, I only buy a stock when I am out of it.

I am posting no graphs or tables, belive me I have had many more stocks exiting through over 70% profit than not. Best thing is I get to also enjoy dividends during d holding period.

How u see am nah?

#systematic_trader

richforever123:
Take it, easy bro, life is not all squabbles and fights all the time, I know you may not be like this is real life, you may be using this forum for your alter ego

As they say, give a man a mask, then you will see his true nature

He is probably scanning my posts, topics and shit for clues. Since he/she has appointed himself/herself our resident archeologist or abi detective.

I don't like to brag but, I get more ass than a toilet seat.

Lazyyouth4u:
You really think any sane woman go take suicidal and depressed man seriously? Bro, women don’t find that shitt sexy at all

You cried out for help when you were depressed, down and almost out. The babe console you. You now feel say internet don forget and you are here feeling fly and talking about bunking her like say you be one don Baba J and she one common olosho. Baba you need serious help

And you dey wonder why she went hard on you when una get that argument the other time. It’s called ‘see finish’

U be idiot o.

I wrote a good story which some folks found interesting.

See ur self, u believe ma story without evidence but u don't believe that @Ahib owns a fleet of trucks. U be bad belle o.